STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 6 October

[ozymandius]

Wednesday October 6, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 106
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 27
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 299 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 353 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 566
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1049
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 5, 2004

Dow... 10,177.68 -38.86 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq... 1,955.50 +3.10 (+0.16%)
S&P 500... 1,134.48 -0.69 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.17% UNCH (UNCH)
Gold future... 419.80 +4.20 (+1.00%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif

DAILY CHARTS FOR 10-5-2004

-cut through many charts-

Another day of consolidation.

Today's action was classic text book stuff. The indices consolidated for the second consecutive day, trading in a narrow range between support and resistance. The resolution of the consolidation will result in a break of either support, or resistance, and it will set the directional tone for the rest of the week. The odds favor that the resolution will be a bullish one, however, after 15 years of being students of the markets, we have learned to expect the un-expected.


http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Oil Extends Record Run to $51.48 Peak

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices extended record-setting highs above $51 for U.S. crude on Wednesday, fueled by the impact of Hurricane Ivan on U.S. winter inventories.

U.S. light crude hit $51.48 a barrel before easing to $51.27 a barrel, up 18 cents on the day. London Brent , the benchmark for European imports, rose 17 cents to $47.30 a barrel after setting a record $47.60.

"Momentum can't be denied in this market and so we find ourselves now ... atop $50 perhaps headed for $60 absent some unforeseen catalyst for a wave of speculative selling," said Marshall Steeves of brokers Refco.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=749&e=1&u=/nm/20041006/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.41 Change +0.24 (+0.27%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH35987_2004-10-06_11-44-14_L06477795

FOREX-Dollar higher, focus on Fed speakers, jobs and oil

LONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - The dollar rose against the euro and Swiss franc on Wednesday as investors awaited more clues on the U.S. interest rate outlook from speeches by Federal Reserve officials later in the day and U.S. jobs data due on Friday.

The greenback was also pushed higher as sterling fell across the board following weaker than expected British manufacturing data.

But many investors are unwilling to take big positions ahead of speeches by Fed officials later and the non-farm payrolls data on Friday.

"Sterling's move probably did have an impact on the dollar. And as we head towards Friday the dollar should edge higher as (Tuesday's) employment component of the non-manufacturing ISM pointed to a higher than consensus number on Friday," said Gavin Friend, currency strategist at Commerzbank.

"The view from the Fed seems to be upbeat on the overall economy, mixed with a tinge of caution because of oil. But its upbeat stance and expectations for the jobs data should continue to keep the dollar in the ascendancy this week."

<snip>

Fed officials who spoke so far this week have been upbeat about growth prospects despite costly fuel.

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert McTeer said late on Tuesday he did not think oil prices posed a major threat.

Several Fed officials were due to speak later on Wednesday, including Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson at 1600 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole at 1700 GMT. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig was scheduled at 0045 GMT

...more...

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=aapnew20041064928

Overnight debt/forex report

excerpt:

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president Robert McTeer, who moves into a voting position on the Federal Open Market Committee next year, said the US economy is ´back on track from our soft patch´, a familiar refrain from the
Fed.

But his comments were tempered by data from the Institute of Supply Management, whose index of non-manufacturing business activity fell for the second month in a row to 56.7 in September from August's 58.2. (See the data summary table below.)

And the rising price of crude promised an ongoing drag on economic growth, as the benchmark November delivery futures contract rose by $US1.18 to $US51.09.

That helped to push US share prices down on average, although some retracement was on the cards after big gains on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.4 per cent, the S&P 500 edged back by 0.1 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite index ended up by 0.2 per cent.

<snip>

In the foreign exchange market the ISM data helped to lift the euro against the US dollar, it's about a quarter of a US cent higher at USD1.2313. However the dollar's initial slide against the yen was reversed, with the yen typically finding itself out of favour with speculators as the price of oil rises. The dollar is a third of a yen higher at JPY111.22.

...more...

No reports due today.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

9. Sheesh, what's with all this Fed speak this week? 3 yammerin' today,

weren't there like 5 yakkin' on Monday or Tuesday? Is this normal? You gotta wonder if the driving force is political or are we on the edge of some serious doo-doo here. :shrug:

[ozymandius]

12. A concerted smoke screen, I'd say.

This is a bad week for B/C. Five days after the first B/K debate, people are still talking about how pathetic was Bush's performance. C/E last night did not guarantee the incumbents any favors either. So I believe that the Fed's lieutenants and Greenspan are spinning wildly to cheer up a depressing economic outlook.

Really it is their last chance to figure into the election. The Fed will not meet again until after the votes are cast.

[UpInArms]

4. Job-cuts pick up in US tech sectors

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/875061.cms

NEW YORK: The trouble may not be over for the long-distressed high technology sector, as statements and reports on September job cuts indicate a surge in layoffs.

Whether this is the tipping point for a long-troubled sector, or a blip in the path toward steady growth remains to be seen, analysts said.

In the month of September alone, layoffs in the computer and telecommunications industries reached a six-month high, according to a monthly report by employment services firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., squelching hopes job cuts were slowing in these industries.

The computer industry lost 24,300 jobs in September, compared with 5,004 in August, while the long-troubled telecommunications sector lost 10,982, compared with 5,617 in August, the report said.

Both industries, which have had higher than average job cuts since the dot-com bubble burst in 2001, were thought to be hitting a turnaround in overall job loss, since the last six months had relatively stable figures. But the surge in announcements this month, combined with a tough pricing market and soft demand that companies said in their statements may mean more job losses in the future.

...more...

[UpInArms]

5. Merger might mean layoffs for some in Denver

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/technology/article/0,1299,DRMN_49_3232808,00.html

If wedding bells do ring, a marriage of Oracle and PeopleSoft could spell layoffs for Denver-area employees of PeopleSoft.

PeopleSoft employs about 2,000 here, having bought Denver-based J.D. Edwards last year in a $1.8 billion friendly merger.

J.D. Edwards had employed nearly 5,000 worldwide at the time of the combination.

About half worked at the company's four-building campus at the Denver Tech Center.

An Oracle-PeopleSoft merger could lead to cost-cutting by Oracle.

"The only way this will work for Oracle is to lay off as many PeopleSoft/J.D. Edwards people as they can," said Bert Hochfeld, managing director of Hochfeld Independent Research Group in New York.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. Hollinger Discloses More Newspaper Circ 'Inflation,' Sets $27 Million Ad C

Hollinger Discloses More Newspaper Circ 'Inflation,' Sets $27 Million Ad Comp Plan

http://www.mediapost.com/dtls_dsp_news.cfm?newsID=272330

Hollinger International, the parent company of the Chicago Sun-Times, Tuesday released findings of an internal audit following the disclosure last June that the newspaper's circulation had been inflated by more than 20 percent. As a result of the audit's findings, the company announced that it would be compensating advertisers, taking a pre-tax charge of $27 million to cover the estimated cost.

Hollinger revealed that the "circulation inflation" at the Sun-Times dated back to 1997, and worsened significantly over time. The average inflation that occurred in the 12-month period ending March 1997 was just 2,814 copies per day during the week and 672 copies on Sundays. By March of 2003, the average single-copy inflation had grown to 50,191 weekday copies and 17,318 Sunday copies.

Things got even worse during the most recent 12-month period ending March 28, 2004, as daily copies were believed to be inflated by over 70,000 copies--yet these circulation figures were never included in an ABC audit report.

...more...

[ozymandius]

7. Fed's McTeer: U.S. Economy Back on Track

I see what 54anickel meant yesterday about the markets 'being suckered by McTeer'.

AUSTIN, Texas (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is on track after a weak stretch and an uptick in consumer prices seems to have passed, Dallas Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Bank President Robert McTeer said on Tuesday.

"The inflation scare is over with," McTeer, who is not a voting member of the U.S. central bank's Federal Open Market Committee (news - web sites) this year, told a luncheon sponsored by his bank's San Antonio branch.

-cut-

He said the economic weakness that began mid-year moderated market expectations for how fast the Fed would raise interest rates -- which the central bank has hiked three times in 2004 to the current level of 1-3/4 percent.

"At 1-3/4 percent, and inflation running about that or a little above it, real short-term interest rates are still negative or close to negative," he said, adding that he did not know where rates would go when the Fed's policy-setting Open Market Committee next met, in November.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=1&u=/nm/20041005/bs_nm/economy_fed_mcteer_dc&sid=95609869

I do wonder though: Does the Bush administration require that all its whores wear hotpants, a tube top and a boa?

[Tempest]

15. McTeer's on drugs

Retail food prices up 4% in quarter

http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/5015924.html

[ProfessorGAC]

53. DU's Professor: McTeer Is Wrong!

Typical two dimensional thinker. Uses a single XY relationship between rates and inflation to judge that a multidimensional, near chaotic system like the U.S. macroeconomy is back on track.

What an idiot! This is why the economic profession isn't respected as scientists. Too many hipshooting buffoons who still think von Hayek was right.
The Professor

[ozymandius]

56. Thank you, Professor, for chiming in.

While quite a novice, I understand the gestalt of what you express. It does boggle the mind how such an academic simpleton is able to achieve such a standing in the financial world.

[ProfessorGAC]

57. True Of Far Too Many Professional "Economists"

I belong to the ECC and go to the meetings about once a quarter. All economists and analysts. Lots and lots of dumbasses who should bring their schools shame by how little they learned and how little they learned to think well.

I, obviously am among the radicals in that crowd. Why? Because i believe we should be developing and revising theories through the analysis of data and understanding of causative relationships rather than becoming ideologically wed to one line of conventional wisdom. You know, sort of like SCIENCE!
The Professor

[ozymandius]

61. Why am I not surprised by what you say?

My wife has a cousin who is a Princeton economist (not Krugman) who currently is advising the Bush administration. I do not know his opinion on these matters. But I can say that he was brought on board as an advisor in a move that resembled panic. Too little too late, probably.

I will say that we do not share the same overall political p.o.v.

I hope that future participation from you will be more frequent.

Ozymandius

edit: clarity

[54anickel]

8. The dragon and the eagle (US prosperity an illusion)

http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=3219358

American consumers and Chinese producers have led a global boom. China is creating genuine wealth, but America's binge is based partly on an illusion, says Pam Woodall, our economics editor



snip>

Yet China's boom is itself partly the product of the Fed's super-lax monetary policy. With its currency pegged to the dollar, China has been forced to import America's easy monetary conditions. Its higher interest rates have attracted large inflows of capital that have inflated domestic liquidity, encouraging excessive investment and bank lending in some sectors which could lead to a bust. Fortunately the economy is not as overheated as it was in the early 1990s, when investment, credit and inflation were all growing much faster; and this time the authorities have acted sooner. But even if China can engineer a soft landing (which is generally defined as growth slowing to around 7%), growth in investment and imports of capital equipment and raw materials would slow much more severely, causing some global discomfort.

Some commentators liken China's boom to America's dotcom bubble in the late 1990s; but although investors have clearly got carried away, much of the exuberance about China is rational. The country's recent ups and downs are reminiscent of America's booms and busts during the period of industrialisation in the late 19th century. These did not prevent America becoming the world's economic giant, creating fast-growing markets for European goods. If China continues with its reforms, it will enjoy faster growth than America ever achieved. Within a decade it will probably be the world's largest exporter and importer, and one day it may overtake America as the world's largest economy.

That strikes fear in the heart of many businessmen and workers in rich countries. In America's presidential-election campaign, China has been widely blamed for America's “jobless recovery”; yet faster growth in China should mean faster rather than slower growth elsewhere too. China has a unique combination of a huge population and an economy that is unusually open to the rest of the world, as measured by trade or foreign direct investment. China's catch-up in income and its integration into the world economy could be the single biggest driver of global growth over coming decades. Indeed, China's boost to global growth could exceed the much-trumpeted gains from the IT revolution.

China's road to prosperity is not without risks. Its economy may well stumble during the next year or so. But its future prospects remain excellent, built on genuine wealth creation as currently underemployed labour is put to productive use. In contrast, American consumers have been living in never-never land, financing their spending by borrowing against illusory gains in wealth.

Not as rich as you think
Economies can get truly richer only through increased productivity growth, either from technological advances or from more efficient production thanks to international trade. Thus China's integration into the world economy genuinely creates wealth. The same cannot be said of all the “wealth” produced by stockmarket or housing bubbles.

more...

[54anickel]

10. MERCK: Recall threatening AAA credit rating

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0410060128oct06,1,460740.story?coll=chi-business-hed

NEW YORK -- Merck & Co. may lose its 29-year-old AAA credit rating after withdrawing its Vioxx painkiller from the market, bond prices show.

The extra yield demanded by investors to own Merck's 4.375 percent notes maturing in 2013 rather than government debt widened 14 basis points, to 52 basis points, since the Sept. 30 recall, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. data. A basis point is .01 percent.

Vioxx, the world's second-best-selling painkiller, has a potential link to heart attacks and strokes, Merck said. The recall may cut Merck's annual cash flow by one-fifth, leaving less of a cushion to make debt payments.

Moody's Investors Service put Merck, one of 11 U.S. companies with top credit grades, on review for a possible reduction.

[UpInArms]

11. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

09:18 ET S&P futures vs fair value: -0.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Not a lot of conviction being shown in the futures market, so expectations for a relatively flat start for the cash market remain intact... Look for the Dept. of Energy's weekly report on petroleum inventories at 10:30 ET to be a trading catalyst as it will help dictate the path of oil prices today, which are currently down just $0.09 at $51.00/bbl... analysts are expecting a 2.75 mln barrel increase in crude stockpiles, a 750K barrel drawdown in gasoline supplies, and a 1.05 mln barrel decline in distillate fuel supplies

8:55AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5.

8:36AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5. Futures market continues to trade in a manner that suggests a relatively flat start for the cash market... there is no economic data today, but several Fed officials (Ferguson - personal savings rate; Poole - addressing Finl. Services professionals; and Hoenig - speaks on monetary policy) will be giving speeches; Hoenig's speech comes after the close at 20:45 ET

8:09AM: S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5. A mixed tone prevails in the futures market, which leaves the cash market poised for a mixed and relatively flat start... Not much concerted selling interest at the moment, but warnings from the likes of ABC, NITE and ADTN, and a number of downgrades this morning, have kept buying interest in check

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates some of its recent gains but remains above September's high crossing at 1446.50. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rebound off August's low, a test of the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1476.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1428.25 would temper the bullish outlook in the market. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 1.00 pts. at 1467 as of 5:51 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was slightly lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates above September's high crossing at 1132.30. If the rally continues, a test of June's high crossing at 1146.50 is possible later this fall. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1120.37 would temper the friendly outlook in the market. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

13. 9:38 markets are open

Dow 10,169.42 -8.26 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,951.42 -4.08 (-0.21%)
S&P 500 1,133.82 -0.66 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.193% +0.020

NYSE Volume 43,131,000
Nasdaq Volume 154,275,000

[ozymandius]

14. Overseas markets slump due to oil prices

Asian Stock Markets Close Mostly Lower

HONG KONG - Asian shares closed mostly lower Thursday, with sentiment across the region hurt by sharp losses on Wall Street and rising oil prices.

Shares in Hong Kong closed almost flat. Investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of earnings reports from two leading property developers.

-cut-

Weakness on Wall Street spilled over into several Asian markets, and traders were also worried after watching crude oil surge above $48 per barrel on the New York futures market Wednesday.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=3&u=/ap/asian_markets&sid=95609876


Oil, Astra Lead European Stocks Down

PARIS (Reuters) - European shares retreated on Wednesday as AstraZeneca's business update disappointed investors and on nagging concerns that soaring oil prices will hurt the quality of future earnings.

-cut-

The European energy sector set a new 2004 high Wednesday, bringing to more than 15 percent its yearly advance.

Oil majors benefited from the latest oil surge amid hopes for bumper profits, with BP up 1.5 percent, but shares in airline British Airways slipped 1 percent on nagging concern soaring energy prices will erode its profit margins.

"Of course, if oil earnings grow more rapidly than expected, earnings in other areas will tend to come under pressure," said Credit Suisse First Boston quantitative analyst, Bill McQuaker.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=2&u=/nm/markets_europe_stocks_dc&sid=95609877

[54anickel]

16. Mogambo: Ruler of The Universe

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty100604.html

- October has started off with the national debt climbing to a new record, $7.405 trillion, easily surpassing the statutory debt limit set by Congress of $7.384. Now, this could be because the Congress authorized a new limit and they did it in secret hoping that the Mogambo wouldn't find out and then he would send them more hate mail ("Dear Butthead") and tying up their phones all day ("Let me speak to Butthead!"). But knowing the US government like I do, I am sure that they don't give a rat's ass about any laws or limits, and that the Treasury thinks it can do any damn thing that they want, because all the other branches of government, and all the people IN all those other branches of government, all think that THEY can do just about any damn thing they please.

But perhaps a paragraph in last Monday's Daily Reckoning should be enough to 1) explain this recent explosion in debt and 2) send you screaming in fear to the nearest convenience store to buy some chocolate donuts or other comfort food, because it is going to be a long night, panicked and shivering in fear about what tomorrow may bring.. They write, "On Sept. 9, a strange thing happened: America's tower of debt barely grew. The U.S. Treasury held an auction of its 10-year securities. Typically, foreigners buy about one-third of the notes on offer, according to reports from the Financial Times. But at this auction, the central banks of China and Japan, who can generally be relied upon to take up America's debt, were oddly quiet. When it was over, they had bought less than 3% percent of the total."

Three percent! That's almost nothing! Hell, I get a three percent response to my monthly sale of Mogambo 30-Year Gilt-Edged Super Safe Debentures Paying 15 (Fifteen) Percent Interest Guaranteed, which are unique in that 1) they are available in face amounts equal to whatever cash you have with you at the time of sale, and 2) the bonds say right on them "These bonds are a fraud and a scam, but no more of a fraud than Ben Bernanke's infamous printing press, and if you let the Federal Reserve do that to you, without any protest from you at all, then don't come whining to me because I don't want to hear it! Now fork over the money!"

In short, foreigners are apparently deciding that they have choked down enough dollars these last few years, as they expanded their own money supplies in their good-hearted attempt to keep the malignant US economy from erupting into flames and aid their export markets by supplying customers (us) with both credit and stuff to buy with the credit, and now their own rates of price inflation are soaring. And, now, so the story goes, they (especially the Chinese) wish to diversify out of dollars, because to continue accumulating them is, in a word, stupid, and with the Chinese emphasis on tradition they can see far enough into the future that their grandchildren will one day be standing in front of them and asking "Pardon the interruption, venerable grandfather, but why did you continue lending so much money to someone who was already so far in debt that he could not possibly pay you back? Pardon humble observation, esteemed elder, but that sounds really stupid. Or, as the Mogambo says, that sounds really American economist!"

more...

[UpInArms]

54. Mogambo seems to have a crystal ball

:D

Treasurys end lower on economic outlook, weaker auction

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38266.6352314815-822725458&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Treasurys closed lower, pushing up yields on Wednesday amid expectations Friday's jobs report will show the U.S. economy strengthened last month. Tepid turnout for an auction of 5-year notes also weighed on the government-bond sector. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note closed 9/32 lower at 100 10/32. Its yield ($TNX) rose to 4.21 percent from 4.18 percent Tuesday.

[54anickel]

17. What the Bonds Are Saying

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ackerman/current.html

snip>

"So, what's the bond market saying now, and are we willing to listen?

** It's saying that inflation is not coming back, nor is full employment.

** It's saying that companies will continue to enjoy the friendliest environment they've seen in years (what I call corporate welfare).

** It's saying that the stock market is wrong when it projects continuously higher energy and basic materials prices as far as the eye can see.

** It's saying that the next recession is closer than (most of us) think, but won't be recognized as such until 2006 at the earliest, and more likely won't be "official" until some meeting of the Economic Conference board some time in 2007.

** It's also saying that we should buy real estate to live in, not to speculate.

more...

[UpInArms]

18. Fannie 'mismanagement must be eliminated,' Baker says

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38266.4287847222-822699984&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- "Mismanagement" at mortgage giant Fannie Mae (FNM) "must be eliminated," said Rep. Richard Baker, R-La., the chairman of the House capital markets subcomittee at hearing Wednesday on alleged accounting irregulaties at Fannie. Baker said a critical report released by Fannie's government regulator "cannot be questioned." Baker said he would release the compensation of the top 20 executives at Fannie. Fannie has been accused of managing quarterly earnings to boost executives' compensation. Earlier, Fannie CEO Franklin Raines defended the company's accounting practices.

[UpInArms]

49. Regulator Says Fannie Mae Execs May Need to Go

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6431934

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Fannie Mae's regulator told Congress on Wednesday his office was considering seeking management changes at the mortgage finance company after finding pervasive accounting irregularities.

Fannie Mae executives, at the same congressional hearing, denied the regulator's allegations they used improper accounting to mask profit fluctuations.

Responding to questions, Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight Director Armando Falcon told a House of Representatives Financial Services panel the regulator was "currently considering" if top Fannie Mae management changes are needed.

"We're having discussions with the board about the issue of management accountability and confidence in current management," Falcon said.

The panel's chairman, Rep. Richard Baker, said OFHEO's accusations of accounting manipulation underlined the need for changes at the top at Fannie Mae.

"The culture of mismanagement in this report must be eliminated and assurances gained that the highest standards of conduct will be consistently practiced," Baker told the hearing. "Never did I question whether the GSEs were professionally managed. Now I do."

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. U.S. to File Case Over Airbus Subsidies

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6429071

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States will on Wednesday file a complaint at the World Trade Organization over what it called "unfair" European Union subsidies to aircraft manufacturer Airbus.

"Since its creation thirty-five years ago, some Europeans have justified subsidies to Airbus as necessary to support an 'infant' industry. If that rationalization were ever valid, its time has long passed. Airbus now sells more large civil aircraft than Boeing," U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick said in a statement.

...more...

:nopity:

[54anickel]

35. EU hits back over Boeing's "massive" aid

http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=597687§ion=finance

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The EU has hit back after Washington filed a case at the World Trade Organisation over state aid for aircraft maker Airbus EAD.PA , filing its own case over what it called "massive illegal" aid for Boeing BA.N .

"Today, the EU has requested consultations with the United States in the World Trade Organisation on massive subsidies granted to Boeing," the European Commission said in a statement on Wednesday, released an hour after the United States filed its case.

The European Union's trade commissioner, Pascal Lamy, regretted Washington's move and branded it "obviously an attempt to divert attention from Boeing's self-inflicted decline".

"If this is the path the U.S. has chosen, we accept the challenge, not least because it is high time to put an end to massive illegal U.S. subsidies to Boeing which damage Airbus, in particular those for Boeing's new 7E7 programme," he said in a statement.

more...

[UpInArms]

20. Higher winter heating prices forecast (Well, Duh!)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF6425283%2DA94C%2D4429%2DB33B%2DC50C12A0875C%7D&siteid=mktw

Costs seen rising 11% to 28%, depending on fuel

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. households that heat with oil, natural gas and propane will face steep price increases this winter, according to a report released Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the Energy Department.

"Heating-fuel expenditures per household are expected to rise this winter in all regions of the country," the winter fuel outlook for 2004-2005 said.

Tighter world oil markets and volatile crude oil prices that have topped $51 a barrel are the main culprits, but colder weather this winter in some regions could also play a part in price increases, the report said.

Homes heated by oil will be hit the hardest, with retail heating oil prices expected to soar roughly 28 percent over last winter's levels, the report said.

On average, a household will spend $1,223 on heating oil this winter compared with $953 the previous year, a 28.4 increase in expenditures, the report said. Heating oil is primarily used by homes in the Northeast.

...more...

no inflation, economy can take higher oil prices in stride, no effect on anyone - we are too healthy an economic force - we shall overcome!

:argh:

[UpInArms]

21. 10:38 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,185.50 +7.82 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,952.54 -2.96 (-0.15%)
S&P 500 1,135.89 +1.41 (+0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.201% +0.028

NYSE Volume 311,560,000
Nasdaq Volume 567,971,000

10:30AM: Still anyone's market as stocks remain relatively unchanged... Today has been relatively uneventful from a economic/corporate news perspective, but tomorrow promises to offer investors more to chew on... Tonight after the close biotech giant Genentech (DNA 50.70 -0.43) will be reporting, and tomorrow after the close, Dow component Alcoa (AA 33.98 +0.42) will release its Q3 (Sept) results.... Friday will also be an eventful day for the market with the scheduled September employment report...

The consensus estimate for the all-important nonfarm payrolls figure is set at 150K - 6K less than August's reading... On a side note, weekly oil inventories will be released any minute now, and should influence both the price of crude oil and direction of trading... The market is expecting a 2.75 mln barrel increase in crude stockpiles, a 750K barrel drawdown in gasoline supplies, and a 1.05 mln barrel decline in distillate fuel supplies... NYSE Adv/Dec 1513/1256, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1176/1374

10:00AM: Buyers and sellers alike continue to exhibit little conviction as the major indices hug the unchanged mark... Breadth figures are split with each other at the NYSE and Nasdaq as neither side has shown much enthusiasm... Industry leadership is similarly mixed, with tech, telecom, and health care drawing in most of the sellers, and retail, basic material, and transportation pulling in the buyers... Health care itself has been weak off a reduced FY04 (Dec) outlook from wholesale distributor AmerisourceBergen (ABC 52.79 -0.73) citing lower than expected drug price increases...

That same problem has plagued the other drug distributors, as well as the pharmaceutical companies...

(edited for html)

[UpInArms]

23. info on crude inventories

10:31am 10/06/04 U.S. CRUDE STKS UP 1.1 MLN BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

10:32am 10/06/04 U.S. GAS STKS UP 600,000 BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

10:32am 10/06/04 U.S. DISTILLATE STKS DOWN 2.1 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

from the blather:

The market is expecting a 2.75 mln barrel increase in crude stockpiles, a 750K barrel drawdown in gasoline supplies, and a 1.05 mln barrel decline in distillate fuel supplies

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38266.4428240741-822701626&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

Oil stocks remain higher after supply data

DALLAS (CBS.MW) -- Oil stocks continued to trade higher after the Energy Department reported a 1.1-million barrel increase in crude supplies for the week ended Oct. 1. The Philadelphia Oil Service Index was up 1 percent at 123.22, the Amex Oil Index gained 0.8 percent to 717.74, and the Amex Natural Gas Index rose by 0.6 percent to 276.62.

[UpInArms]

28. Oil inventory rise less than forecast

http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/06/news/economy/eia_inventory/?cnn=yes

U.S. stockpiles of crude climb by half of what analysts had expected.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. stockpiles of crude oil rose by 1.1 million barrels last week, the government reported Wednesday, coming in at half of what analysts had expected.

Following the report, U.S. crude for November delivery traded up 41 cents to a record $51.50 a barrel

Inventories of crude oil climbed to 274 million barrels in the week ending Oct. 1 from 272.9 million the previous week as shipments delayed by Hurricane Ivan arrived at their ports, the Energy Information Administration reported.

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. API confirms fall in distillate stocks

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38266.4663888889-822704323&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- The American Petroleum Institute said distillate inventories for the week ended Oct. 1 fell by 286,000 barrels to total 120.9 million. The Energy Department reported a 2.1 million-barrel fall. Crude stocks rose by 268,000 barrels to total 273.1 million. Gasoline stocks were down 337,000 barrels at 199.3 million barrels, according to the API data. November crude is now up 56 cents at $51.65 a barrel in New York. The API data were delayed due to a "glitch" in the new system used to release them, a spokesman said.

[UpInArms]

41. Oil Hits Record $51.80 a Barrel

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6430332

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices neared $52 for U.S. crude on Wednesday, fueled by the impact of Hurricane Ivan on U.S. winter inventories.

U.S. light crude (CLc1: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 71 cents to a peak of $51.80 a barrel. London Brent (LCOc1: Quote, Profile, Research) , the benchmark for European imports, rose 67 cents to $47.80 a barrel.

Oil has surged more than 55 percent since the start of the year, driven by the strongest demand growth in a generation and a thinning cushion of spare production capacity to cope with supply outages.

"It's frightening how bullishly the market is shaping up from a fundamental perspective," said Yasser Elguindi of Medley Global Advisors in New York.

"There's strong demand in Asia and Europe as well as the U.S. and inventories are low in all regions."

The focus of concern now is the United States. As of Tuesday, damage from mid-September's Hurricane Ivan had kept closed 453,000 barrels per day from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico -- equivalent to about half the output of small OPEC producer Indonesia.

...more...

[UpInArms]

46. Oil's Rally Takes U.S. Crude Over $52

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6431700

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil's record-breaking rally took U.S. crude over $52 a barrel on Wednesday, a new all-time high, fueled by the impact of Hurricane Ivan on U.S. winter inventories.

U.S. light crude (CLc1: Quote, Profile, Research) climbed to a peak of $52.02 a barrel before easing to $51.90, up 89 cents on the day. London Brent (LCOc1: Quote, Profile, Research) , the benchmark for European imports, set a record $48.02.

Oil has surged some 60 percent since the start of the year, driven by the strongest demand growth in a generation and a thinning cushion of spare capacity to cope with supply outages.

"It's frightening how bullishly the market is shaping up from a fundamental perspective," said Yasser Elguindi of Medley Global Advisors in New York.

"There's strong demand in Asia and Europe as well as the U.S. and inventories are low in all regions."

...more...

[54anickel]

22. YOUR DEBT AT THE END OF FISCAL 2004

http://www.etherzone.com/2004/henr100504.shtml

The 2004 fiscal year ended Thursday, September 30th, the same day as the first presidential debates. This is the day when, as a not-for-profit organization, the government's books must be brought to a balance of zero, the same number as the points scored by Bush in the debates.

Up until this last day of the month, the Bush administration was doing a pretty good job of holding down its continuous borrowing. For the last two months, they've been trying to stall reaching the debt limit. On Wednesday, September 29th, the national debt stood at $7.352 trillion, only slightly higher than its close at the end of August of $7.351 trillion. But then, on the last day of the month, the U.S. Treasury reported a $28 billion increase to $7.379 trillion.

The national debt limit, the amount that the administration cannot borrow beyond without congressional approval to increase the ceiling, currently stands at $7.384 trillion. And there has not been a peep from the media, watchdog groups, or anyone, but there is going to be a presidential debate on the economy soon.

snip>

Several other things are important to understand at this point in time.

First of all, now that we've entered a new fiscal year and a new budget, the Bush administration can snatch money coming in from income taxes and us it elsewhere. Whatever the reasons for finding it necessary to borrow so much money, that lust can now be satisfied by shorting other programs until the debt ceiling is raised.

This means a lot of broken promises, but Bush is accustomed to that and we should be too.

Secondly, there's about $50 billion that is not considered "subject to the debt limit." ...

more...

[UpInArms]

26. once again, I am compelled to post this

The estimated population of the United States is 294,460,330
so each citizen's share of this debt is $25,190.13.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$1.71 billion per day since September 30, 2003

[54anickel]

24. Snow, Clement Miss Mark on Oil-Price Speculation

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_lynn&sid=aKJxgH.ZKTSE

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- At more than $50 a barrel, the price of oil has everybody spooked. Economists are worried about global growth. Industrialists are concerned about the cost of raw materials. Car owners are anxious about filling up the tank.

Who's to blame for that? To listen to a parade of politicians in the past few weeks, it's the fault of financial speculators.

That's a bad rap. While there has been speculation in oil markets, that isn't what has been pushing up prices. The cost of oil is near record levels because of rising demand, tight supply, instability in many of the main oil-producing countries and a lack of refinery capacity.

Indeed, some of those reading the ``it's all the fault of speculators'' script could look closer to home -- since an attack on speculators is a sure sign of a politician shifting the blame to someone else for a problem they could be fixing themselves.

more...

[UpInArms]

27. interesting info on refineries

http://www.ilo.org/public/english/dialogue/sector/techmeet/tmor98/tmorr.htm

North America

In the United States, 163 refineries with a crude capacity of 15.43 million b/d were in operation at the beginning of 1997. The capacity number has been relatively stable throughout the 1990s (15.48 million in 1991) after declining in the 1980s (18.46 million in 1980). The number of refineries has declined from 194 in 1991 and 303 in 1980.(20) Many of the refineries that closed were small: the average capacity of the refineries closed in the 1990s was only about 25,000 b/d, and in total they represented only about 4 per cent of United States distillation capacity.(21) Most of the refineries that closed were also simple distillation units: as a result, total conversion capacity as a percentage of basic crude capacity increased. However, 20 of the refineries that have closed since 1980 were complex, with a total capacity of over 600,000 b/d. Other characteristics of the closed refineries were that their output comprised a heavier product mix than the average surviving refinery; and their utilization rates were lower than those of the survivors. Marginal improvements in the surviving refineries' "capacity creep" -- amounting to about 0.5 per cent per year output growth -- accounts for the fact that output has remained roughly constant despite the closures. Demand for oil products, after falling sharply between 1979 and 1983, has grown at a steady if slow rate in most of the years since 1983. Demand for light products increased at a rate of 0.8 per cent per year in the first half of the 1990s, while conversion capacity -- despite the shut-downs -- was growing at twice that rate.(22)

It is at first glance puzzling that despite demand growth, refinery closures and high utilization rates, margins remain modest and little investment has been made in new capacity. Average capacity utilization has risen from 92 per cent in 1995 to an expected 93.5 per cent in 1997. It is argued that this is near the maximum sustainable capacity utilization, since some spare capacity is needed for maintenance down time and other contingencies.(23) However, the fact that margins have remained low suggests the explanation lies again in the phenomenon of capacity creep. Investments undertaken partly to comply with environmental requirements (see below) have contributed to this. According to one author:

In the past five years, margins haven't improved, even for those who have invested to make reformulated fuels. The intent of these refiners was to add economic value to the investments added for regulatory purposes. But these investments involved the addition of conversion equipment, which had the added effect of increasing product capacity.(24)

Average margins have fluctuated in a range of about $1.80/barrel to $1.00/barrel over the last 20 years. These averages conceal the wide gap between the Gulf Coast refineries, with average margins of $1.39 in 1993, $0.88 in 1994 and $0.33 in 1995, and the surviving West Coast plants (benefiting from the numerous plant closures which reduced capacity overhang in that market), which have enjoyed margins in the range of $3.50 to $7.00 over the same period.(25) Historically, there is a clear correlation between the level of margins and -- with a time lag of about one-and-a-half to two years -- capital expenditure on refineries.(26) This would explain why capital expenditures fell from about $7 billion in 1992 to under $4 billion in 1996 and why little additional capacity is planned in the immediate future. Already the country is a net importer of about 1 million b/d per year of oil products (including 280,000 b/d of gasoline and 150,000 b/d of distillate), and in the absence of new investments this is likely to grow after the year 2000.

[54anickel]

30. Hindsight, ain't it great. Guess we're screwed now!!! n/t

[UpInArms]

25. Recent stock strength not a sustainable trend: Trahan

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38266.44125-822701466&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Bear Stearns market strategist Francois Trahan said the recent stock market rally is likely just a bout of volatility rather than the beginning of a sustainable trend. He believes a slowdown in earnings growth is inevitable in 2005 as the economy continues to cool down. "Stocks were due for a reprieve following a rather cruel summer but we believe there is little fuel at this stage to carry equities much higher," Trahan said in a note to clients. "Although the market is more attractively valued than it was earlier in the year, it is not enough to justify a bullish stance on equities." The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) was last up 1 point at 1,136, and has gained 3 percent since the Sept. 27 close.

[UpInArms]

31. 11:38 numbers and blather

Dow 10,165.52 -12.16 (-0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,949.30 -6.20 (-0.32%)
S&P 500 1,134.27 -0.21 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.197% +0.024

NYSE Volume 499,152,000
Nasdaq Volume 812,404,000

11:30 ET The major indices hold tight to their slim morning trading range... The market has been held down by selling in influential pockets of tech (such as semiconductor) and health care (such as pharmaceutical and wholesale distributor), while areas like transportation, brokerage, energy, and homebuilding have offset some of those losses... Homebuilding itself has rebounded from a particularly dire day yesterday, in which Pulte Homes (PHM 53.26 +0.81) warned for Q3 (Sept) citing some softness in the Las Vegas market...

Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL 44.97 +1.54) has responded to those charges by saying that 'building activity in Las Vegas remains very healthy' for the company... ..SOX -1.4%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1649/1312. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1250/1519.

11:05 ET Indices give back some following the release of the weaker than expected oil inventories report... The Energy Information Administration revealed that US crude oil inventories rose 1.1 mln barrels last week, as opposed to the consensus estimate of a 2.75 mln increase... As a result of the smaller rise, crude oil has rallied to its highs of the day, up $0.06 to $51.15/bbl...

Worries that the US - following Hurricane Ivan that disturbed several Gulf Coast oil rigs - will be unable to compensate for expected supply disruptions in Africa, South America, and the Mideast have been behind the push higher... As a result of the latter, the energy sector has actually soared over 1%... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1706/1174. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1258/1417.

[54anickel]

32. 11:37 numbers & yada

per today's wrap up: Support 10180 1930 1130

Dow 10,165.96 -11.72 (-0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,949.29 -6.21 (-0.32%)
S&P 500 1,134.27 -0.21 (-0.02%)
10-yr Bond 4.197% +0.024
30-yr Bond 4.951% +0.023
NYSE Volume 499,152,000
Nasdaq Volume 812,404,000

11:30AM: The major indices hold tight to their slim morning trading range... The market has been held down by selling in influential pockets of tech (such as semiconductor) and health care (such as pharmaceutical and wholesale distributor), while areas like transportation, brokerage, energy, and homebuilding have offset some of those losses... Homebuilding itself has rebounded from a particularly dire day yesterday, in which Pulte Homes (PHM 53.26 +0.81) warned for Q3 (Sept) citing some softness in the Las Vegas market...
Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL 44.97 +1.54) has responded to those charges by saying that 'building activity in Las Vegas remains very healthy' for the company...SOX -1.4, NYSE Adv/Dec 1649/1312, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1250/1519

11:05AM: Indices give back some following the release of the weaker than expected oil inventories report... The Energy Information Administration revealed that US crude oil inventories rose 1.1 mln barrels last week, as opposed to the consensus estimate of a 2.75 mln increase... As a result of the smaller rise, crude oil has rallied to its highs of the day, up $0.06 to $51.15/bbl...

Worries that the US - following Hurricane Ivan that disturbed several Gulf Coast oil rigs - will be unable to compensate for expected supply disruptions in Africa, South America, and the Mideast have been behind the push higher... As a result of the latter, the energy sector has actually soared over 1%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1706/1174, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1258/1417

[UpInArms]

34. twins!

:hi:

[54anickel]

36. Heh-heh!!! Lately I feel like I am down that rabbit hole! The damned

cat is the only one making any sense these days!

[54anickel]

33. Whoa, look at that 11:00 am smack down in gold!

[54anickel]

37. Linking gold and oil prices

http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/46806.html

A crisis in the Middle East, an American president who did not inspire confidence overseas, rising economic powers in Asia and instability in global monetary policies.

In the early 1970s, these destabilizing factors combined to helped to push gold prices steadily upwards towards the peak price of more than $800 per ounce that was reached by the end of the decade.

Today, in a world that seems in many ways to mirror that of three decades earlier, gold prices are hovering in the $400 per ounce range. By some standards that price is quite high; by others, though, the precious metal is a relative bargain - especially compared to oil prices, which are a traditional indicator of the value of gold.

snip>

Worldwide, Goldman Sachs argued recently that buying by hedge funds and an expected continued decline in the dollar against the euro means that gold prices will continue to inch up for the rest of 2004. (Investors historically purchase gold as a hedge against declines in US assets when the dollar is falling.)

more...

[UpInArms]

38. 12:21 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,182.03 +4.35 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,956.80 +1.30 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,136.35 +1.87 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.193% +0.020

NYSE Volume 631,703,000
Nasdaq Volume 964,362,000

12:00PM: The market has never veered far from the unchanged mark this morning as concerns about profits and the global economy have kept buying under wraps... Crude oil has once again taken off to new record highs - this time to $51.73/bbl - as this week's oil inventories report came in lighter than expected... US inventories rose just 1.1 mln barrels, as opposed to the consensus estimate of a +2.75 mln, as the aftermath of Hurricane Ivan continues to be felt in stockpiles...

Worries that peace talks in Nigeria will not be successful and that winter demand will outpace supply have also been behind the climb higher... As a result, the major indices have stuck near their session lows approaching the mid-day... Other factors that have kept the indices tied down have been a large number of tech warnings... OPNET (OPNT 7.32 -1.61), Open Text (OTEX 15.76 -4.29), Vignette (VIGN 1.18 +0.02), and Zoran Corp (ZRAN 14.19 -2.06) all cut their expectations citing, in most cases, weaker end market demand... Tech wasn't the only area with disappointing news - wholesale distributor AmerisourceBergen (ABC 53.68 +0.16) also reduced its outlook blaming a deteriorating industry environment...

As a result, tech and health care have been some of the worst performing groups - only offset by substantial buying in transportation, energy, and homebuilding - the latter due to encouraging comments from Toll Brothers (TOL 53.68 +0.16)...

have that old tune running in my head today:

and never is heard, a discouraging word
and the sky is not cloudy all day :crazy:

[ozymandius]

40. Fairy tale twins!

Thanks for the great company on our adventure down the rabbit hole!

[UpInArms]

42. it's definitely a mad tea party

:D

[ozymandius]

39. lunchtime numbers and blather

12:23
Dow 10,185.35 +7.67 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,957.69 +2.19 (+0.11%)
S&P 500 1,136.35 +1.87 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.201% +0.028
NYSE Volume 636,703,000
Nasdaq Volume 971,128,000


U.S. stocks little changed on oil spike, warnings

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks traded little changed Wednesday, weathering a spate of profit warnings and new highs for oil after weaker-than-expected supply data, with investors looking to Friday's employment report as a catalyst for a fresh move to the upside.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI - News) was virtually unchanged, down 2 points, at 10,175.

Merck was a notable decliner on the benchmark index, falling 3.9 percent, after a media report quoted a Food and Drug Administration study showing its recently withdrawn Vioxx drug may have behind several thousand heart attacks.

The Nasdaq Composite Index (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) fell 1.6 points to1,953, after posting its sixth straight gain in a row Tuesday. Weakness in the semiconductor sector (Philadelphia:^SOXX - News) was weighing on the tech-rich index.

more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041006/5b7516effcd7db857cfe6e6881ebd1f5_1.html

I've gotta run - probably for the rest of the day. Have a great afternoon, all.

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

43. Watchin paint dry at 1:56

Dow 10,179.15 +1.47 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,955.11 -0.39 (-0.02%)
S&P 500 1,135.50 +1.02 (+0.09%)
10-yr Bond 4.21% +0.037
30-yr Bond 4.963% +0.035
NYSE Volume 857,268,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,247,789,000

1:30PM: The market continues to boast slim gains in what has been a quiet afternoon of trading... Corporate news has been exceptionally quiet in the wake of the start of the Q3 (Sept) reporting season tomorrow... Briefing.com continues to stress that earnings guidance - and not earnings reports - should carry more importance as the bulk of most companies have already preannounced... Investors have been wary of what the remainder of 2H04 holds as growth comparisons become more difficult...
That, along with the prospect of raising interest rates, have kept buyers at bay most of this year, and this fall should likely provide a turning point...NYSE Adv/Dec 1902/1247, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1542/1387

1:00PM: Equities cautiously move higher as buyers dabble in mostly blue chip issues... Financial, retail, energy, and basic material have all traded 0.2% or higher and counterbalanced persistent losses in tech... It is important to note, however, that most tech areas have retraced a good deal of their losses in the past hour... The Nasdaq itself has come within 2 points of a intraday resistance level, and now 6 points of its 200-day simple moving average... Up volume there is pacing down volume by a nearly 3-to-2 margin...NYSE Adv/Dec 1963/1165, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1563/1347

[54anickel]

44. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

"GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC REPORTS: THINGS YOU'VE SUSPECTED
BUT WERE AFRAID TO ASK! -- GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT"
(Part Four in a Series of Four)


http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/s/article/id=312

snip to the conclusion>

Estimating Economic Reality

Based on my analysis of the GDP/GNP revisions and redefinitions over time, over-deflation and economic reporting as published before later political corrections, reporting of real GDP growth at present is overstated by roughly three percent per year against a more realistic, pre-Pollyanna Creep period.

Where the period of bloated GDP reporting began after the severe double-dip recession of 1980 and 1981/1982, it includes the last two recessions that were severe enough to generate reported GDP contractions. Both the 1990/1991 and 2001 recessions were deeper and longer than currently estimated. The recession from July 1990 to March 1991 (timing per the NBER) really began in late-1989 and persisted into 1992, perhaps even 1993. Such was evident in the underlying data of the time. Due to the NBER's early call of the recession's end, however, the first "jobless recovery" was seen.

Similarly, the recession that was timed from March to November 2001, began in late-2000 and persisted into 2003. Again, because of an early call to the recession's end, a "jobless recovery" was seen.

There also were economic downturns in 1986 and 1995 that were evident to most companies dealing in real world economic activity at he time. Although the contractions showed up in a number of measures, they were not severe enough to turn bloated GDP growth negative.

As the economy once again appears to be faltering, or losing traction, risk is high of renewed or a double-dip recession, of which the 2001 downturn eventually will be counted as the first leg.

more...

[UpInArms]

45. Fed's Poole calls for end to rate hints

Says market takes them as commitments

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B88A91608%2DB919%2D476F%2D91D6%2DA8832B6EB768%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The Federal Open Market Committee should end its practice of hinting at the likely course of future policy actions, said William Poole, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

"Given ... the danger of misleading the market when indicating a probable future course for policy, I have generally been opposed to announcing, or hinting, future policy adjustments," Poole said Wednesday in a speech prepared for delivery to a business group in Springfield, Mo. A copy of his remarks was released in Washington.

Poole said that markets might misinterpret the statement as "a firm commitment" when it is only meant to give the public some idea of how policy might proceed.

Poole raised the possibility that he may even dissent from the statements, if such hints continue to be added.

He said that, in some cases, a statement on the probable future course of monetary policy could be more important than the setting of the current intended Fed funds rate.

"The public will have to understand that dissents may be in order over the wording of the policy statement, a possibility that has not been widely discussed," Poole said.

...more...

[TrogL]

47. Loonie Watch

http://www.angelfire.com/ab/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html


2004-09-07 Tuesday, September 7 0.776277 USD
2004-09-08 Wednesday, September 8 0.774893 USD
2004-09-09 Thursday, September 9 0.776518 USD
2004-09-10 Friday, September 10 0.776398 USD
2004-09-13 Monday, September 13 0.769231 USD
2004-09-14 Tuesday, September 14 0.773994 USD
2004-09-15 Wednesday, September 15 0.770001 USD
2004-09-16 Thursday, September 16 0.774353 USD
2004-09-17 Friday, September 17 0.769112 USD
2004-09-20 Monday, September 20 0.772559 USD
2004-09-21 Tuesday, September 21 0.776036 USD
2004-09-22 Wednesday, September 22 0.780275 USD
2004-09-23 Thursday, September 23 0.78235 USD
2004-09-24 Friday, September 24 0.783515 USD
2004-09-27 Monday, September 27 0.785053 USD
2004-09-28 Tuesday, September 28 0.784068 USD
2004-09-29 Wednesday, September 29 0.785546 USD
2004-09-30 Thursday, September 30 0.790639 USD
2004-10-01 Friday, October 1 0.791828 USD
2004-10-04 Monday, October 4 0.785793 USD
2004-10-05 Tuesday, October 5 0.792079 USD
2004-10-06 Wednesday, October 6 0.794155 USD




OK. Now I'm just plain scared. We're looking at an 80 cent loonie.

The morning economics guy on the CBC was just about foaming at the mouth complaining about the US's balance of trade, consumer debt, oil prices. He's predicting a massive devaluation of the greenback.

Will you guys down there PLEASE get your act together?

[UpInArms]

48. Ill Winds Blow No Good for Jobs

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/oct2004/nf2004106_2954_db016.htm

This year's hurricanes will likely depress the latest employment numbers. Earlier figures, however, may be revised upward

While residents of the Southeastern U.S. continue to clean up after the four hurricanes that have struck the region in the past two months, economists are still sorting though the tempests' effect on key economic data. Nowhere will that uncertainty be more evident than in the September employment report, to be released Oct. 8.

We at Action Economics expect the report to show an increase of only 140,000 in nonfarm payrolls for the month -- below economists' median forecast of 150,000 new jobs. While we continue to project underlying growth near the 180,000 per month averaged so far in 2004, the risk is sizable that the three hurricanes that hit between survey periods will depress hiring this month.

POLITICAL TOOL? Elsewhere in the report, the average workweek is projected at 33.8 hours, the same as in August, and the unemployment rate is expected to hold at the surprisingly lean 5.4% rate. We expect a 0.2% hourly earnings gain in September, equal to the average increase of the last 12 months.

The market also will take note of the employment report's accompanying statement, which will provide guidance for the size of the benchmark revision to data from March, 2003, through March, 2004, and which will be officially released with the January data next year. The market is bracing for a sizable upward revision, given trends over the same period in unemployment-insurance data.

But the dated reference point may make the revisions more of a political tool heading into the elections, rather than a useful insight into the current state of the economy. Indeed, press reports have President Bush's Council of Economic Advisers estimating that the payrolls figure for that period could be revised upward by 288,000 jobs and perhaps as much as 384,000.

...more...

[54anickel]

52. HOs! This guy calls for rate increases with no future pause too. More

Fed speak at the end I guess.

snip>

How could the report be greeted on Wall Street? Federal Reserve officials continue to downplay the threat of higher oil prices on both the economy and inflation, instead focusing on the need to move to a "less accommodative" monetary policy -- higher rates, in other words. It's our view that the strength in the report (excluding hurricane impacts) will not provide any reason for the Fed to veer from its current course. We believe that Greenspan & Co. will continue to implement quarter-point rate hikes at each of its policy meetings well into 2005 -- a more aggressive path than what the Fed funds futures market currently expects.

[54anickel]

50. Central Bank Gold Sales to Cease? (Washington Agreement)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/phillips/phillips100604.html

The expected confirmations of gold sales from the signatories to the 2004 Central Bank Gold Agreement never came.

Indeed, the most significant feature of the meeting of the G7 in Washington in October 2004 was the deafening silence on gold from those expected to make announcements.

But no, their voices were still.

Italy's central bank head Antonio Fazio has confirmed that he "will say something in Washington" on Italy's position on gold.
..........What did we hear? - Silence!
We expected an announcement from Germany in Washington.
..........What did we hear? - Silence!
France indicated earlier that it may not make any announcement until 2005 early.
..........Nothing heard!
Indeed we expected the signatories, as a group, would have made a clarifying statement.
..........What did we hear? - Silence!

Why the silence?

more...

[UpInArms]

51. 3:10 EST numbers and blather (Rally On Dude!)

Dow 10,202.90 +25.22 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,959.48 +3.98 (+0.20%)
S&P 500 1,137.41 +2.93 (+0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.222% +0.049

3:00PM: The market relinquishes some of its gains following the run-up in the price of crude oil ahead of its close... The commodity finished the day higher by $0.93 at $52.02/bbl (its highest price ever) - as US heating oil futures also hit a new record in the last minutes of trading... The end result has been a pullback in US equities, as investors fear the impact of rising raw material prices on corporate profits and consumer spending... That has been at the heart of the market's weak performance during Q3 (Sept)...

Briefing.com continues to believe that although oil should moderate some, it will remain well above $30/bbl mark for some time - faced with rising global demand and expectations for a cold winter in the US...NYSE Adv/Dec 1952/1256, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1567/1455

2:30PM: Stocks improve ever so slightly as the indices near their session highs... The Nasdaq has - unlike other recovery efforts - participated in this drive thanks to some buying in computer service... Computer Associates (CA 27.72 +0.33) just said it expected to meet, or exceed, analysts' average operating earnings estimates for 2Q05 (Sept) - echoing comments it made earlier this morning... Disk drive is another space that has bucked the bearish tone of trading in tech... Storage Tech (STX 14.26 +0.06) was upgraded this morning to Buy from Hold by Needham...

The firm said 'the preponderance of data points seem to signal that STX has turned the corner in its business'...NYSE Adv/Dec 1964/1233, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1591/1404

[UpInArms]

55. 3:33 EST numbers (NO FEAR!) blather added

Dow 10,217.21 +39.53 (+0.39%)
Nasdaq 1,965.29 +9.79 (+0.50%)
S&P 500 1,139.57 +5.09 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.224% +0.051

WHEEEE!

adding blather on edit:

3:30PM: After an entire session's worth of flat trading, the market catches fire and stages a (albeit modest) rally... In a reversal of sorts, tech has actually led the uptick after trailing behind all day... Telecom service and networking have also performed well following Viacom's (VIA.B 35.71 +0.26) positive capital expenditure guidance... As a result, the Nasdaq has come within a point of its 200-day moving average at 1964... Volume has actually been above average on the buying drive and suggests some conviction on the part of buyers....

However, it remains to be seen if the advance can continue if the Nasdaq fails at its 200-day...NYSE Adv/Dec 1965/1273, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1648/1391

[UpInArms]

59. closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,239.92 +62.24 (+0.61%)
Nasdaq 1,971.03 +15.53 (+0.79%)
S&P 500 1,142.05 +7.57 (+0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 4.224% +0.051

Close: After shunning stocks for most of the day, buyers emerged in the last 45 minutes of trading to bid equities to new highs... Indeed, the major indices put together a broad-based rally that resulted in the Nasdaq's seventh positive finish in a row... The catalyst for the uptick was multi-faceted, but centered around Dow component Verizon's (VZ 41.48 +0.69) upwardly revised capital expenditure budget for FY05 - announced in the last hour of trading... This was enough to put a bid in the other telecom shares, in addition to networking and semiconductor...

The net effect of the buying propelled the Nasdaq well above its 200-day simple moving average (at 1964/1965)... The blue chips also followed suit as banking, transportation, homebuilding, basic material, retail, and energy marched significantly higher... A description of the day's events, however, would not be complete without a discussion of what had the market down earlier in the day... A number of second-tier tech players (OPNT, OTEX, VIGN, ZRAN) had cut their quarterly outlooks - most citing soft global demand - and crude oil prices jumped to yet another record high...

The commodity finished at $52.02/bbl (up $0.93) as weekly oil inventories came in weaker than expected (rising 1.1 mln barrels as compared to the consensus estimate of +2.75 mln barrels) and US heating oil futures also hit a new record... As a result, energy was one of the only strong sectors in the early going, with most groups experiencing slight losses... Health care was the most notable laggard - then and at the close - as Merck (MRK 31.67 -1.76) suffered more selling on its Vioxx withdrawal (announced last Thursday)...

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates some of its recent gains but remains above September's high crossing at 1446.50. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rebound off August's low, a test of the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1476.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1428.25 would temper the bullish outlook in the market. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 1.00 pts. at 1467 as of 5:51 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was slightly lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates above September's high crossing at 1132.30. If the rally continues, a test of June's high crossing at 1146.50 is possible later this fall. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1120.37 would temper the friendly outlook in the market. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[ozymandius]

58. closing figures and blather

Dow 10,239.92 +62.24 (+0.61%)
Nasdaq 1,971.03 +15.53 (+0.79%)
S&P 500 1,142.05 +7.57 (+0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 4.224% +0.051
NYSE Volume 1,423,907,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,934,677,000

U.S. stocks end higher; Nasdaq makes it lucky seven

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks staged a late-day rally to end higher Wednesday, with the Nasdaq climbing for the seventh straight session, as investor appetite for attractively valued shares trumped concern over a spate of profit warnings and a new high for oil after weaker-than-expected supply data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI - News) closed just off its high for the session, up 62.24 points, or 0.6 percent, at 10,239.92, breaking out of a narrow 37-point trading range it had been mired in for most of the session.

-cut-

Crude tops $52 a barrel

Crude-oil futures climbed to new heights to $52 a barrel after two key reports said U.S. supplies rose less than expected and distillate inventories fell.

Crude for November delivery was last up 81 cents at $51.90 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after briefly spiking at $52.02 intraday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041006/1cb9e032ac2e55b452a6b7c55b14c67f_1.html

[UpInArms]

60. there I go - double posting again :)

:hi:

[ozymandius]

62. Well, it shows how much we care.

:toast:

Ozy

[54anickel]

63. Get outta here! No way!!! I step out to run an errand and come back

to you kids having a PARTY!!! What are they smokin'?