A quiet but important struggle is taking place in Washington, D.C., over the situation in Iraq: Professionals in the State Department, the intelligence community and the military are trying to get word to the American public that the United States is losing control of the situation. They are determinedly contradicting the fairy tales of progress coming from President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney on the campaign trail. These experts should be listened to; they have no ax to grind except that they abhor lies, distortions and the effect those have on the pursuit of effective policy.
Several weeks ago, a classified national intelligence estimate on Iraq, prepared in July by the National Intelligence Council (NIC), was leaked to the media. It painted a very gloomy picture of the situation, with the best the United States could hope for going forward was that Iraq would continue as it is now -- a country convulsed by violence, with little prospect for peace, economic and political stability or effective reconstruction. Things could, however, get markedly worse, and Iraq could slip into all-out civil war.
When asked about the report, Bush said the people who wrote it were just "guessing," a word he later amended to "estimating." Either way, he was dismissive of the report and continued unabashed to embellish his fairy-tale view.
Whereupon two earlier reports from the intelligence council suddenly were made available to the press. These were written months before the invasion of Iraq, and they predicted the chaos and insurgency that now grip that country. The message was clear: Don't buy the president's dismissal of the July NIC report. The NIC has a track record on Iraq, and it's a good one. Look at what it predicted before the invasion. Look at what Bush chose to ignore.
http://www.startribune.com/stories/561/5009661.html
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