Distortion: CNN Circles Wagons On Polling

[Thurston Howell IV]

The well-financed liberal advocacy group, MoveOn.org, inserted the issue into the campaign by taking out a full-page ad in The New York Times which accuses Gallup of "refusing to fix a longstanding problem with their likely voter methodology" and criticized two media outlets, CNN and USA Today, each of which pays Gallup for the polls and the right to release the results.

MoveOn's ad argues: "Gallup's methodology has predicted lately that Republican turnout on Election Day is likely to exceed Democrats' by six to eight percentage points. But exit polls show otherwise: in each of the last two Presidential elections, Democratic turnout exceeded Republican by four to five points. That discrepancy alone can account for nearly all of Bush's phantom 14-point lead" reported by Gallup a couple of weeks ago.

Often, CNN covers contentious issues like this with sound bites from both sides, treating both positions roughly equally. But not this time. After all, a blow to Gallup's reputation as a reliable polling service is also a blow to CNN. So, on the network's "Inside Politics" this afternoon, it dealt with the issue this way:

Anchor Judy Woodruff began by briefly outlining MoveOn's complaint: "Recent polls have shown George W. Bush leading John Kerry and MoveOn.org claims Gallup's polling techniques exaggerate Republican support." Woodruff then gave Gallup editor-in-chief Frank Newport almost three minutes to respond, uninterrupted, to the charges. Naturally, Newport defended Gallup's methodology, but essentially asked viewers to take it on faith that he knows what he's doing.

End of segment.

With that nifty sign-off, CNN implicitly confirmed a criticism of itself that was leveled in the MoveOn ad: the charge that CNN winds up "acting as unquestioning promotional partners , rather than as critical journalists." For this was not the journalism of a disinterested party with no ax to grind. This was PR.

http://www.campaigndesk.org/archives/000963.asp

Lodge complaint with CNN: http://www.cnn.com/feedback/cnntv/
Express your views to Judy herself at http://www.cnn.com/feedback/forms/form4.html?18

[seventhson]

1. Thanks for pointing this out and underscoring it

I had missed it altogether.

THAT is great work by Moveon

[peacetalksforall]

2. Excellent, excellent synopsis! Beautiful work, T H, IV

Absolutely, perfectly informative and interpretative.

[rock]

3. So if they're running about even

Kerry has a 14 point lead. That sounds right to me.

[Thurston Howell IV]

4. Kerry has 14 point lead

I like your reasoning.

[donco6]

6. Me too.

Every day I drive to work and I see at least 10 Kerry/Edwards stickers for every W. What gives?

[peacetalksforall]

5. MoveOn won just by making it necessary for CNN to state the claim

made about 'them' = Gallup, CNN, USA Today. Hooray for Moveon!

[grannylib]

7. They're all corporate-owned, right-wing whores. Even PBS censors its

stories so as not to piss off the corporate sponsors.
Woodruff is one of the worst. She's pathetic - really sucks up to anyone on the right, lobs 'em softballs, lets them speak their inanities without interruption.
She is capable of asking tough questions, but not of the ReThuglicans.
Might be embarassing when the idiots are unable to answer (but then again, nobody seems to notice when ReThugs fail to answer questions other than to repeat the WH-approved talking points for the day...)
There is no substance to these people, and really, very little style...
just fear, lies and smear. It's all they've got, and they know it.
Why else the desperate efforts, in all corners of the nation, to disenfranchise likely Democratic voters? They know damn well that if the election is honest and all votes are counted, their little goosie is charred to a FUCKING CRISP, YOU ASSHOLES!!
GIMME BACK MY COUNTRY, YOU DEN OF THIEVES!

[jdj]

33. Just watch the ANWR doc, they referred to Boxer as "a DEMOCRAT senator

from California", made my blood boil

[Gloria]

8. I've been waiting for someone to go after the polling issue!

These networks create the polls, then use them over and over as NEWS.
The blatant shittiness of the methodology borders on fraud, esp. the way the results are used by CNN, etc.

Once again, as a former Gallup study director, I have to say that the old man must be spinning in his grave. The Gallup I worked for was legit.
When George Sr died the company was sold....they are just using the name, it is no longer the REAL Gallup that practically invented polling!!

The closest thing you will find to the original Gallup is Andy Kohut, who was President of Gallup when I was there. He has moved on to Pew and also runs Princeton Survey Research....I would trust him more than the phonies now running "Gallup."

[nolabels]

42. (The) SELF-EVIDENT TECHNIQUE

Must not let the flock be spooked

SELF-EVIDENT TECHNIQUE

Appeal to Authority. Appeals to authority cite prominent figures to support a position idea, argument, or course of action.

Assertion. Assertions are positive statements presented as fact. They imply that what is stated is self-evident and needs no further proof. Assertions may or may not be true.

Bandwagon and Inevitable Victory. Bandwagon-and-inevitable-victory appeals attempt to persuade the target audience to take a course of action "everyone else is taking." "Join the crowd." This technique reinforces people's natural desire to be on the winning side. This technique is used to convince the audience that a program is an expression of an irresistible mass movement and that it is in their interest to join. "Inevitable victory" invites those not already on the bandwagon to join those already on the road to certain victory. Those already, or partially, on the bandwagon are reassured that staying aboard is the best course of action.

(snip)
Card stacking or selective omission. This is the process of choosing from a variety of facts only those which support the propagandist's purpose. In using this technique, facts are selected and presented which most effectively strengthen and authenticate the point of view of the propagandist. It includes the collection of all available material pertaining to a subject and the selection of that material which most effectively supports the propaganda line. Card stacking, case making, and censorship are all forms of selection. Success or failure depends on how successful the propagandist is in selecting facts or "cards" and presenting or "stacking" them.
(snip)
http://www.mapinc.org/propaganda/propaganda/proptech.htm

[gratuitous]

9. Looks like Judy really got stung yesterday

Who was it? A Democratic spokesman (not Gillespie, the other one) was on Judy's show, Judy was preening about the Gallup numbers, and the guy basically shot Gallup down, using the same arguments at the MoveOn ad. As I recall, Judy was left to stand here looking like she'd just taken a shot of novocaine.

CNN fires back today, though!

Must . . . defend . . . integrity . . . of . . . Gallup.

[Beetwasher]

10. Yeah, So, When Gallup's Integrity Is Questioned, What Do You Do?

You ask Gallup about it...

"Are you crooked?"
"Nope, not us. No m'aam!"
"Good enough for me."

[Hello_Kitty]

24. I sent an email to Judy

I expressed my disappointment in her pro-Bush biased coverage. My sister was her producer at CNN for several years so I mentioned that, too. Don't know how much good that will do. A lot of people need to start emailing them and threaten to stop watching as long as they persist in their quest to be a FauxNews clone.

[remfan]

11. This was PR?

Well, duh. Show me a segment on one of these "news" shows that is not PR.

[dicknbush]

12. Seems to me you could really screw these guys up by....

Just telling all democrats who are polled to lie and say they are going to vote for AWOL LIAR DRY DRUNK BOY! There results would be totally unreliable and every one would have to pay attention to what was actually being said to make up their minds on who to vote for. Why don't we get a campaign going that is basically asking all those who are ging to vote for Kerry to just say I am voting for BUSH!?

[dicknbush]

13. Better Yet...

On November 2 they would be totally embaraseed and proven to be a bunch of fools ekspecially if Kerry was able to pull off a "STUNNING UPSET "

[Terran]

14. Jeez! So who's worse? CBS...?

...for pouncing on a story that had no basis in fact, and then admitting they were wrong, or CNN for *knowingly* using their so-called journalists to defend a flat-out lie? Judy Woodruff should resign (or burn in hell).

[sally343434]

17. "No basis in fact?"

If you're referring to CBS's AWOL story, it was indeed based on fact.

[Terran]

39. No, I just meant the documents themselves, the forgeries

Of course AWOL itself is still a story.

[WatchWhatISay]

15. They used the same trick to convince Democrats

that Dean was unelectable.

When will we stop listening to polls? Which are a whole lot easier to defraud than an election.

[chaumont58]

16. CNN the Counterfeit News Network

the most trusted name in three dollar bills.

[Nancy Waterman]

27. I just sent an email to CNN

I have now seen several polls about the election which are talked about on CNN that use very biased sampling. It is preposterous to say that Bush is 8 to 10 points ahead in a poll and not reveal that the sample has 12% more Republicans than Democrats. Such polls are essentially meaningless and very misleading since there are more Democrats than Republicans voting.

Even worse, this skewed polling makes many very suspicious that this is a potential set up for the election to be stolen. The public would like to trust the media not to be skewed and not to be in league with one party.

Thank you.

[Amigust]

30. It's pretty obvious that CNN is not one of the news outlets you can trust

The public would like to trust the media not to be skewed and not to be in league with one party.

I emailed CNN too.

[jdj]

34. The problem with CNN, NPR and PBS is that they used to be

liberal. There is a lag time with people waking up and realizing that all of them are now hustling for the right.

With Faux and MSRNC, they are so new to the game they have no prior rep that they are ruining now.

[RobinA]

18. Seems To Me

like a massive waste of money and energy on MoveOn's part. Plus, it smacks of sour grapes. If the polls are wrong, election day will tell the tale, and that's all that matters. As far as I'm concerned, they can have Kerry down from now 'til then. It'll motivate Kerryites to get out there and vote, and maybe it'll convince a few Bushsters to stay home.

[Zero Gravitas]

22. Polls do matter

because they can create a psychological mindset among undecided voters. If one candidate becomes seen as the inevitable winner, undecideds pay much less attention to the other choice, why should they if the other guys is going to win anyway? So if the polls are off significantly they can have an effect on the outcome.

[jdj]

36. yes, manufacturing consent WORKS.

They can make people feel like it is hopeless, and not even vote. They know they have to win this way because there are less repukes than dems anyway, and definitely less obscenely rich than middle class/working poor/destitute.

[globalcitizen]

28. down by 3

I agree about the polls being a motivator for the Dems. I like to follow Zogby's poll because he was the only one who got it right in 2000. He's got Kerry down by about 3 points which I think is exactly where he wants to be right now before the debates begin. Last January his campaign was calling him the "Seabuiscuit" candidate because he runs better when he's slightly behind and then he closes the gap. I think he's going to turn this around in TWO MORE DAYS!!

You can visually compare the results of about a dozen or so polls on the home page of

www.pollingreport.com

[Cocoa]

29. it works the other way

Kerry being perceived as losing is NOT good for Kerry. It discourages Kerry supporters, and it allows the whores to frame everything Kerry does as "desperation."

[arikara]

38. My concern with this is

that they could be using the skewed polls to set up another election theft. If most think that the idiot chimp was ahead all along it would be much easier.


:tinfoilhat:

[progressivebydesign]

19. But they're STILL oversampling Republicans and Independents!

Sorry CNN, you suck as a Faux Fox! The truth is the methodology is flawed.. they're assuming that only (roughly) 30% of Americans consider themselves VOTING democrats!! BS. The Independents are NOT 1/3 of the voting public.. no way, but they are given almost as much (and sometimes equal weight in tv polls). The Democrats have much higher turnout, AND we have kicked ASS registering new voters.

Why did Ted Turner sell CNN? We could really use ONE normal news source!!!!!!!!!!

[Just Me]

20. I guess we will find out whose master is principle via money.

Perhaps, it's time to press not only principles,...but human lives,...against the "love of money".

Actually, human life has become nothing compared to money.

Sad,...huh.

[VegasWolf]

21. Slowly the truth emerges, like a giant awakening from its slumber!

[VegasWolf]

23. I give these "unLIKELY VOTER" polls all the respect they deserve -

toilet paper!

[young_at_heart]

25. Is CNN now owned by Murdoch?

I gave up on CNN completely about a month ago....they are too much like Fox and I cannot stomach their "news" anymore!

[Melodybe]

31. No the Saudi's own a majority of the company, Ted Turner is pissed BTW

[jdj]

35. God, I would be freaking appalled, beside myself and about

to have a stroke. Watching what has happened to his baby, CNN, is probably what it is like to watch your innocent daughter grow up to be a porn star.

[Supersedeas]

40. follow the money...follow the money

[VegasWolf]

26. Problem: Who will call CNN on this? FAUX, CBS? n/t

[cyr330]

32. I wrote them

I sent a very ugly e-mail concerning that Woodruff bitch. She's is so vile and disgusting. I would like to see her fired.

[DeepModem Mom]

37. kick

[LeftHander]

41. HOw dumb....

It should be a blind sample....party affiliation should NOT be part of a sample.

It is such crap to try and detect a trend in voter choice.

First off the sampling is likely voters who have a land line phone and are likely to be home when they call. They are also selected form certain demographic locations that contain specific characteristics.

THey are looking so hard at the minutia that they basically remove all objectivity out of the sample. The result is exactly waht was shown on CNN's allup graph. The more republicans in the sample the better the results for GW Bush.

If you really randomly sampled it would be likely you would find that most Kerry would be ahead behind those that are not going vote.

I have always thoguht that Bush required control of the polls to help maintain public support for his presidency and policies. When Gallup is questiond the validity of all their polls are suspect and are not to be trusted.