President Ahead by Four Points, New Zogby America Poll Reveals(46%-42%)

[sonicx]

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=863

One week after accepting the Republican party nomination and delivering a stump speech focused on the “war on terrorism”, President George W. Bush moves ahead of Senator John Kerry by four points (46%-42%), according to a new Zogby America poll. The telephone poll of 1018 likely voters was conducted Wednesday through Thursday (September 8-9, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1%.

President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney hold a two-point lead over Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and North Carolina Senator John Edwards in the head-to-head presidential ticket match-up (47%-45%). * No change since last month’s polling.

President Bush’s overall job performance rating has virtually remained the same as last month at 48%, with more than half of respondents continuing to express their disapproval.

Nearly half of respondents say that the country is headed on the wrong track (48%), while 46% feel the U.S. is on the right track.

snip

ps. first chart needs 'kerry' and 'bush' switched.

[Frodo]

1. ?? Is that an increase since the convention?

Was Zogby one of the ones who did some sampling MID-convention? Maybe he just didn't capture the full "bounce" and this reflects that.

Frankly, with all that's been happening I'm surprised - but I guess it's well with sampling error variation.

[sonicx]

4. yes, kerry dropped one percent. nt

[Kathy in Cambridge]

9. You're sad that it's only 4 points

:cry:

:eyes:

:crazy:

[Frodo]

10. You've got some kind of problem my friend.

As I said before - there's a difference between being "right" and being "right wing". :-) :crazy:

No - I'm not sad it's "only" four point.

I'm trying to figure out WHAT (other than random sampling error) would cause it. Based on the other polls I would have expected a couple point drop in the gap.

I happen to think Bush IS almost exactly 3-4 points ahead right now, but Zogby/Rasmussen has tended to be on the lower end of a spectrum bracketing where I think things are, and the unbalanced polls have been on the high end.

So if I think it's a three point race I expect Zogby to show even to +1, Rassmussen to show +1, and CBS to show about +6.

[sonicx]

13. kerry and bush's internal polls have both had bush up by 4

since right after the RNC, according to talkingpointsmemo.com

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2004_08_29.php#003430

[Frodo]

14. Interesting, but a little hard to believe.

Internal polls always have an unintentional bias. They just see things differently.

For instance, based on all that has gone on over the last four years. Republican and Democratic insiders have STRONGLY different impressions of what the turnout ratios are going to be. That impacts numbers (as we've seen) by quite a bit.

If true, I'd consider it a fluke.

[Kathy in Cambridge]

18. No problem here

but I'm a DEMOCRAT who sticks to DEMOCRTIC boards. I think it's YOU that has the problem, pal. :eyes:

[Skittles]

11. I'm tired of it too, RR

very tired; fixing to use the IGNORE option

[Frodo]

12. Who said that?

lol.

Seriously, one less guy calling me a right-wing shill because I don't drink his coolaid that EVERY poll is caving to Rove's cooked numbers?

That'll break my heart. < /sarcasm>

[Kathy in Cambridge]

17. But you drink the KoolAid pal

do you REALLY thing we're THAT stupid?

[Skittles]

25. I am not a guy

do not insult me; it's not about the poll IT IS EVERYTHING

[lancdem]

19. Actually, the bounce usually comes in the week after the convention

and his first poll was done before Bush's speech. The key is Bush's share of the vote. It's still at 46, 47 percent, even after four great weeks, and that's not too good for an incumbent. And the lead is just 2 without Nader.

[fujiyama]

34. The bounce

will be shown for atleast one-two weeks in polls. There were some state polls having Kerry up by 7 in FL about two weeks after the DNC.

[0007]

39. LOL! Figure in the WH fudge factor of 7% then Kerry is leading

Your knee jerk reaction Frodo is a gas!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. job performance rating still below 50%

looks good.

[Karmadillo]

3. Since the media is so excited by polls as of late, let's see how much

they trumpet this one.

[brooklynite]

5. The key finding

is that Bush's vote continues to bounce below 50%. My opinion is that, as memory of the RNC fades, people who didn't like Bush before (for whatever) will rediscover that they don't like him now, and if Bush stay below 50% , undecided voters will likely break for Kerry on election day. HOWEVER, Kerry has to start giving people coherent reasons to vote for him. No more discussion of his or Bush's war records (it won't change people's minds either way and it distracts from discussion of more significant issues). As complicated as issues can be, Kerry needs to be able to net down his plans for the future into about 10 words (Bush = "cut taxes", "strong defense", "family values", "we've turned the corner").

[teryang]

22. "turned the corner" is a bush jingo assoc with Iraq failure

They stopped using it just before the so called sovereignty turnover.

[DeepModem Mom]

6. I believe Zogby's polls -- I think this is where we are unless...

some factors are in play for this election that are new or unique. Some possible factors have been mentioned here at DU: younger voters having only cell phones, missing newly registered voters in polls, more determined than usual voters on the Democratic side, etc.

We're about evenly split, as the country has been for some time now.

[Just Me]

24. All I know is what I see,...and this poll MAY reflect a revolution,...

,...sponsored and ignited by the radical right-wing machine.

I view such a polarized climax as a good thing.

It's time for our country to actually solidify "values" and CRUSH the radical elements which bring nothing but division and destruction to both our people and the peoples around this world.

This is war.

[DeepModem Mom]

26. Very interesting post, Just Me --

I've noted the "war" you describe during this campaign, but never thought of it in exactly the way you've perceptively expressed.

[barb162]

28. interesting about the cell phones

but I have a question there...wouldn't the pollers still call those cell numbers? I hope all Dems are energized this time to get off the duffs and VOTE.

[DeepModem Mom]

30. I've not heard of pollsters calling cell phones -- but someone else...

may know more about current polling and have a knowledgeable answer to this question.

[UKCynic]

31. Absentee voters

I recently met some Dems in London who had just got their absentee voting rights sorted. They hadn't voted since 68, but were pretty determined to vote this time.

[DeepModem Mom]

37. Good call, UKCynic -- welcome to DU!

[sonicx]

7. summary of good news and bad news...

good news, kerry's only down by 4, even better without nader. bush's approval and reelect are below 50. kerry leads in major issues like econmy, iraq, education, and health care.

bad news: kerry support among democrats/liberal is low, kerry is way behind in terrorism issue. many undecided blacks. behind in catholic votes. low blue state lead.

[Tempest]

8. Don't worry about Kerry's support among Democrats and Liberals

Regardless of whether they support Kerry or not, they will vote for Kerry.

I haven't talked to one Democrat/Liberal who (1) plans to vote for Bush or Nader and (2) who doesn't plan to vote.

[teryang]

23. Agree strongly

This is my subjective impression also. Haven't heard even one democrat say they would vote for the representative of the "haves and have mores."

[alfredo]

43. I do precinct walking and I do see some Dems voting bush

I do see some Reps voting Kerry, so we won't know for sure until Nov 3

[nagbacalan]

15. I'm more worried and angry about the Kerry Campaign's

nonresponse to Cheney's continual contradiction of the unanimous bipartisan 9/11 Commission finding regarding Iraq and both 9/11 and a collaborative relationship with Al Qaeda. Someone seems really asleep at the switch.

[Larkspur]

16. Interesting Zogby analysis

Pollster John Zogby: “The Kerry fizzle is striking. He receives only 77% support from Democratic Party voters and has a 7-point lead in the blue states (47%-40%), as compared to Bush’s 13-point lead in the red states (51%-38%). The fact that Bush is getting 15% of Democrats and 15% of liberals should be troublesome. Bush leads again among Catholics (48%-40%) whereas Kerry had a double-digit lead among them in August. The fact that 10% of African Americans say that they are ‘not sure’ is dangerous for Kerry.

“Kerry has got to re-focus his campaign to address economic anxiety and other issues that are obvious concerns for voters. Kerry leads among those who say that their top issues are jobs and the economy (50%-39%), education (48%-37%), the war in Iraq (50%-36%), and health care (50%-34%). But, among those who say that the ‘war on terrorism’ is their top concern, Bush leads by 41 points (66%-25%).

“Right now all the talk is on the ‘war on terrorism.’ Kerry has to change the talk.”

Didn't they know that Kerry is the electible one? :eyes:

[lancdem]

21. He's still very electable

This is Bush's peak, remember? Kerry has a lot of work to do, but let's wait until two weeks after the RNC, when the bounce will have faded. It never lasts.

[barb162]

29. how can Bush be getting 15% of Democrats, liberals

by definition how could ANY liberal vote for the shrubster

[Media_Lies_Daily]

20. Kerry has FratBoy right where he wants him.

[arikara]

27. Darn, I must be in the twilight zone...

When I saw the headline "President Ahead by Four Points" I thought they were talking about Gore.

[Born Free]

32. democrats need to work harder

The swift boat liar campaign took it's toll, now the democrats need to stop worrying about how to best get everyone in the world to discuss the issues again and start campaigning. The media may run quotes of people saying "we need to discuss the issue" but in reality people love a tough campaign. Democrats fall for it every time , they continue to believe most Americans want extensive discussion when if fact the majority of Americans don['t want any discussions, to them it's like a football game, they want to see someone sacked!

[UKCynic]

33. election turnoff

This is a message that I can't get UK campaign workers to understand. The population at large hates elections. They really don't want to be disturbed and they regard our general election as a crushingly boring necessity. They turn off political discussions, unless there is a bit of scandal or a falling out between allies. We have compulsory registration, which helps, but the turnout is falling.

[truthisfreedom]

35. someone needs to reveal the real bush behavior. recordings of the way he

speaks behind the scenes. the folksy side of bush needs to be shattered by his dangerous irrational behavior. we need an insider who will capture the real bush on tape and let us in on the secret unstable weirdo we have in the White House.

[Nambe]

36. I found a poll I like. The Economist.com was asked to poll...

our elections and the results look more realistic than any I've seen.

9/6-8 Bush 46 - Kerry 45 - Nader 1 (results are in pdf format)

http://economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=2907805

[coolhandlulu]

38. polls suck!

:argh:

[geekgirl]

40. This is the only thing that matters

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Kerry is way ahead where it counts.

Geekgirl

[Eurotrash]

41. I agree. National numbers are to a large extent irrelevant.

Just look what happened in 2000. Half a million votes is a lot but still we got robbed.

I'm not sure I agree about Kerry being "way ahead"--just the other day the site had him "way behind"--and things are constantly in a state of flux, but analyzing the race from the electoral vote standpoint is the only sensible thing to do.

[leesa]

42. If this is so, then Americans deserve whatever tragedy befalls them

God help us all.