Campaign 2004: Bush Opens Double-Digit Lead (52 - 41)

[Dickie Flatt]

"For the first time since the Presidential race became a two person contest last spring, there is a clear leader, the latest TIME poll shows. If the 2004 election for President were held today, 52% of likely voters surveyed would vote for President George W. Bush, 41% would vote for Democratic nominee John Kerry, and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader, according to a new TIME poll conducted from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2. Poll results are available on TIME.com and will appear in the upcoming issue of TIME magazine, on newsstands Monday, Sept. 6."

TIME Magazine

[hatrack]

1. Convention bounce - BFD

On edit - and that's assuming this isn't an outlier - way out of synch with Zogby, Rasmussen.

[Geppy]

36. Our Convention sucked.

There were no sustained attacks on Bush's terrible domestic record at our convention while the Republicans creamed Kerry on national defense at theirs. Whose idea was this? Where was our "Zell Miller" speech?

Instead the Democrats spent half the time pumping up his Vietnam record - personally, as a first time voter, I don't give two shits about the Vietnam war. The military salute looked ridiculous.

Kerry should just drop all that BS right know and stop being baited into it and spend all his time and energy blasting Bush on the deficits, the job losses, the mess in Iraq, etc., etc.

They are just starting now to come on with $50 million dollar ad buy to do just that so I read so things will turn around.

That's my take.

[Endangered Specie]

73. Brother, not another one

:eyes:

[Longhorn79]

77. I think Sharpton was supposed to be the Zell Miller

problem is, Sharpton has become something of a laughingstock in recent years, and his behavior was not unexpected, so it wasn't news.

[fearnobush]

2. I'd Trust Zogby - Sept 2nd Poll: Bush 46% Kerry 43%

<http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm>

[NeoConsSuck]

3. And to those who dissed us for calling for the ..

the Democrat party to hit back hard during the RNC, let me be the first to say, I TOLD YOU SO.

[Snivi Yllom]

9. told you so

Man I love saying it but hate hearing it.

[lancdem]

10. It's the Democratic Party

but you have a point, I'm afraid.

[niceypoo]

12. Kerry is a wimp, I hate to say

He is running an incompetent campaign. Coming out FOR the Iraq war has alienated his base. Kerry is still Bush lite. he allows the GOP to run right over him. God help us.

[Liberal Veteran]

19. Oh bite me. I get so tired of people repeating ignorant memes.

You don't know what the hell you are talking about.

Kerry DID NOT come out for the war.

And fuck your Bush lite shit.

What the fuck are you doing to help the campaign besides whining?

[Emillereid]

31. I'll answer for Nicepoo -- I do know what I'm talking about.

Kerry is running a disastrous campaign -- Kerry is indistinguishable from Bush on the most important issues of the day -- yes we insiders understand the nuanced differences, etc., but Joe and Jane 'Walmart' don't and from their perspective Bush is the strong commander in chief shithead whose taking the fight to the enemy and Kerry is saying me too, but I'd do it better. He's got to provide an honest contrast and stand for something -- surety, even if wrong, sells in Peoria. He should have come out swinging with cruise missiles against the swift boat lies and all the other lies manufactured daily by Rove et al. Rove knows that if he throws enough shit in Kerry's direction it doesn't matter if it sticks -- it's designed to raise doubt and fear. Kerry has got to stop being Mr. Nice Guy wuss and get mean!

And I'm working hard for Kerry -- precinct captain, treasurer of my local dem club, raising get out the vote money, helped open an office to get out the vote, etc. etc. But I don't like to be part of a team so blinded by their own take on things that they stand like dazed and confused deer as the train comes barreling down the track. As Dr. Dean so accurately said -- we're in a civil war -- we have no time to play nice. I've said it before and I'll say it again -- this election was Kerry's to lose -- and lose it he will unless he throws off those damn DLC wimps and comes out swinging. Wake up and smell the boot leather as it comes down on your neck.

[Liberal Veteran]

33. No, you answered for yourself and you didn't answer the meme.

The meme that Kerry said he would go to war is a TOTAL misrepresentation of what he said and you do a disservice by ignoring that point.

And are you also calling Kerry "Bush-lite" like the poster?

[Emillereid]

37. Kerry said that even knowing what he knows now, that there were no

WMDs, etc. in Iraq, that he too would have probably made the same call to go to war. As I said -- his position is nuanced, but still problematic.

What I am saying is that Kerry is not taking advantage of taking on the worst president in US history by drawing a clear and bold distinction between himself and Bushit. If Bush says he's white, Kerry should say, no -- Black is the color -- and he's got to take back the agenda. Whether you called his position nuanced, bushit-lite, or whatever -- I don't think it's playing well out on the main streets of America -- and I don't like to lose. If Kerry pulls off a victory without dramatically changing his campaign, I'll gladly eat my hat and crow and anything else. I've never wanted to be wrong so much in my life!

[Liberal Veteran]

52. No...he said he would have voted for the resolution to give the president.

...the authority to go to war in the event that diplomacy and inspections failed.

There is a difference.

He also pointed out that the president misused that authority.

[mike_c]

84. diplomacy and inspections had already succeeded....

Now who's perpetrating a false meme? The WMD's were long gone when Kerry voted for the IWR.

[CalProf]

74. If you're working for Kerry, you should at least get

his positions right.

[GingerSnaps]

35. I will answer for Liberal_Veteran

Bite me Bush lite lovers.

How long ago did you guys join just to rack up enough messages to start trouble on DU?

Bush is a damn Wuss and might I make a suggestion if you don't like Kerry why don't you try the Hannity Board.

[TankLV]

57. Kerry is running a disastrous to mediocre campaign at best.

You may think otherwise, a lot of us think differently - and we have plenty of reasons, and have given plenty of examples to come to our conclusions.

Only in November will we know which is correct.

I pray to god I am wrong.

[hansolsen]

49. Well said, and I think Kerry is finally getting the message. N/T

[LondonAmerican]

60. Hear, Hear!

In fact Kerry is being way too nuanced and far too passive. THAT is why he is lagging and THAT is why Dean would have been such a better candidate!

[DS1]

48. Seconded

:applause:

[moez]

63. Thirded

Though that sentiment will get you flamed in a heartbeat around here...

[WinstonChurchill]

67. Kerry is a Wimp!

We should have stuck with Howard Dean. Kerry should announce that he'll immediately pull our troops out of this illegal war in Iraq. And he should promise to go after Halliburton and arrest Cheney for prosecuting a war so his options in Halliburton will make him a zillionaire.

Kerry is trying to have it both ways and is pretty limp where it counts. I'm afraid I'm gonna have to pack up and live in Canada or Mexico. At least my drugs will be cheaper there (;.

This is what we get when we go back to the tried and true people who have made our country a mess already -- a billionaire who has been screwing things up for 20 years in the Senate.

[Liberal Veteran]

83. Oh look...another troll comes out of the woodwork.

What exactly are you doing to ensure a Kerry win?

[progressivebydesign]

24. Are you serious? Kerry is running a KICK-ASS campaign!

For the first time, the Democrats are kicking ass and taking names. End of story.

[Snellius]

54. You're right

Kerry's midnight "response" to the RNC's attacks was pathetic.

[LondonAmerican]

56. That has hurt him badly

[tedzbear]

72. Kerry's pro Iraq war stand is a fatal error.

And I've been saying that for months. Thanks to his right wing swing he has so confused the electorate that they consider him Bush Lite, and why vote for Lite when you can have the full calorie version?

That is NOT what I think, but that is why Bush is moving ahead.


As long as the Democrats pretend to be Republicans there is no reason to vote for them. That is what everyone is thinking.

:kick:

[DemMother]

17. The "Democrat" party???

Bob Dole coined that as an insult. You don't hear any true Democrats referring to our party that way.

[NeoConsSuck]

78. Whoops! Apologies for my ignorance..

and I do consider myself a tried and true Democrat.

[chiburb]

4. Yawn.

Methodology: The TIME Poll was conducted August 31 – September 2 by telephone among a random sample of 1,316 adults, including 1,128 reported registered voters and 926 likely voters. The margin of error for registered voters is +/- 3% points, and +/- 4% points for likely voters. Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs conducted the poll, and more complete results are attached.

[LiberalFighter]

22. Never heard of SRBI

[pmbryant]

5. This is "likely voters". I don't trust "likely voter" results.

They are too volatile. After a week in which the GOP was paying extremely close attention, and most Dems were going about their lives, it is hardly surprising to see a tilt towards Bush in the LV results. But, after a couple weeks it will be gone, and we'll be back where we started.

What do the "registered voter" results say?

--Peter

[progressivebydesign]

28. They haven't really included the Zell/Cheney lovefest, either.

Those types of incidents take a little while to simmer... takes a few digs from Letterman, Jon Stewart, and water coolers everywhere for that type of damage to show up.

[diablerie]

6. Bullsh*t

nt

[fjc]

7. Yeah well, here's the same source barely a week ago.

http://www.edisonresearch.com/election_hard_to_predict.htm
http://forums.warriorsworld.net/other/msgs/30890.phtml

[chiburb]

8. But thank you for sharing this press release....n/t

[stopbush]

11. If this is true, it's GREAT news!

The media has been portraying this race as being too close to call. But behind that lie is the "why isn't Kerry pulling away from this loser" gambit. My feeling is that the media has been set to show a slow but steady erosion of support away from Kerry, in effect saying, "it was Kerry's to blow, and he blew it."

If he is actually behind in the polls, Kerry now becomes the underdog, and as the underdog, he's allowed to fight back harder and really challenge bush on the failure that is his presidency. The polls are volatile, and Kerry will start gaining ground on bush. By October, Kerry will have "the big MO" as bush slumps. That means undecideds will break for the surging leader, and Kerry will win in a landslide.

On the other hand, I don't believe this Time poll for a nano-second. Bush hasn't been at 50% for months, and things have only gotten worse, not better. Unless there's across-the-board confirmation from other, more-reliable polls, I'd say we just dismiss this out of hand.

[redstateblues]

18. Insightful Analysis- America Pulls For the Underdog

[The King]

20. It could be great news but

Unfortunately Kerry and his people needs to get his story straight.

Since we all know that he has told the truth about his war record, he just needs to disclose everything and that will exonerate him and destroy his critics. He can't do it too soon or he will continue to lose ground. By hiding his records he looks guilty even though we know he is telling the truth.

For the good of our country which will be destroyed by another four years of Chimpy, Kerry needs to prove his case now. Release the military records tonight. Otherwise we better get ready for a long four years.

[lordwhorfin]

25. I'm unclear

Which records has Kerry not released that you feel he should?

Please provide a detailed list of precisely which records you feel he has not provided.

[The King]

39. I don't know the names of all the records...

I just know that the Repugs are claiming that he hasn't signed the release like Chimp did that give access to all the military records. Things like the medical reports on his injuries and stuff. That and his journals would probably make all this go away and we could concentrate on real issues. If he keeps holding back, he looks guilty.

[mac56]

42. When did * give permission for his military records to be released?

Did I miss something?

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

27. Release the military records?

He has released the military records. Far more than The Great Pretender.

Nicely done. No style points, though.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

30. As far as I know, he's disclosed everything except his divorce records.

Which records are you talking about?

[The King]

40. His military records

As I understand it only Kerry can authorize a full disclosure by signing a form. By not doing it after Chimpy did it he makes himself look like he has something to hide.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

81. They have been released. And they weren't redacted as far

as I know.

[Barkley]

70. I agree: Kerry will win by a landslide!

The fact that sticks in my mind is Bush is fundamentally incompetent as a leader and president. Even with the help of others he's an abject failure.

When Bush came to NYC after 911 he was greeted as our leader by a united people.

Bush returns to NYC in 2004 and is met by 500,000 people protesting his policies and Americans are sharply divided about Iraq war on terror, economy etc.

But at least Bush has enough sense to know that he can't run and win on his record because its a "catastrophic success"!

In fact, the only think that boosts his approval rating is starting wars and national disasters such as 911.

I spent part of the summer in a Blue state -- CA (Pasadena) and a red State --Ohio (Cincinnati).

In Aug. 2000, the south/ affluent side of Pasadena had numerous lawns with Bush signs. This year not only are the Bush signs conspicously absent but I've seen Kerry signs in the lawns.

Ohio went for Bush in 2000 but he's trailing there now.
Why?
Ohio's the place he should easily lead (family values and all...)

But Ohio has lost 170,000 jobs since 2000. Again, I've seen Kerry
signs in some affluent neighborhoods: Amberly Village, Walnut Hills.

The red folks are vocal because they're scared! They're scared because they know the vulnerabilities of their leader -- he's incompetent!

F-911 drew huge crowds and people didn't go to be entertained.

I have some questions for Bush:

What happened to the Mission to Mars
What happened to the Mission Accomplished ads?
Why haven't you shown ads with you serving plastic turkey to the troops?
What happened to the Constitutional Amendment banning gay marriages?
What happened to the economic recovery?
What happened to North Korea's WMD?
What happened to Iraq's WMD?
What is our exit strategy from Iraq?
Why are France, Germany, Russia not joining us in Iraq?
Why did Spain, Honduras, Philippines and others leave Iraq?
Why are our gas prices so high?
Why does the person who outed CIA agent Valeri Palmer still work in the White house?
Why have over 100 cities, states and municipal governments repealed parts of all of the USA Patriot Act?

Abject failure in each case!


Remember people, this is Bush we're talking about winning an presidential election.

[Longhorn79]

79. 10 points down is great news...I'd like some of what you're smoking

And what happens if you're right and Kerry storms back into the lead? Is that then horrible news, because Bush is the new underdog?

[Halliburton]

13. Where'd they conduct this poll...

Texas? What's Time's email address? I want to figure out where they got this erroneous information.

[NMDemDist2]

14. the Time poll has a horrible record for accuracy

check it out

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x738817

[Flint-oid]

34. Time disagrees with the other polls

Time Magazine's poll of likely voters, conducted over the course of the convention: Bush 52%, Kerry 41%, Nader 3%.

Zogby, over the same period and also of likely voters, Bush 46%, Kerry 44%. A

RG, covering through Wednesday Sept. 1st, also among likely voters, Bush 48%, Kerry 47%.

[Bill McBlueState]

15. likely voters

They determine whether someone's a likely voter by asking a series of questions, none of which is "Are you likely to vote?" With the answers to these questions, the pollster determines how closely the respondent matches the profile of voters in previous elections.

What this doesn't account for is that the segment of the population that votes in 2004 will be much more anti-Bush than the segment of the population that voted in 2000. Young people, for example, stayed home or voted for Nader in large numbers in 2000 because they didn't realize how bad it could get under Bush. Not this time.

Kerry's going to win the election not by swaying those damn fools who are still undecided or wavering after all this time. He's going to win by getting previously untapped segments of the electorate -- young people and single women -- to show up and vote Bush out. That concept isn't going to appear in some statistically determined sample of "likely voters."

[AngryAmish]

16. This is bad

We sat on our hands while the Swift Boat Vets attacked our core. Now their ideas have stuck. Why we did this I do not know.

We have to attacks those drunks in the White House over and over.

[DuaneBidoux]

21. Time probably overdone, but they will all show similar trends

There is simply no doubt that Kerry has been losing significant ground on Bush and odds have now moved against us winning. We are dealing with mean SOBs here who have proven that they will do anything to win.

Sometimes it makes me think that Democrats really are too nice or naive to be trusted with the defense of the country. Repugs understand that we are nice people (and laugh behind our back at us for being so).

This time it's too important. For once it appears that we must get ready to become as slimy and subhuman as our opponents. The future of America is probably at stake this time because 4 more years of power from this guy and his thugs and there is a good chance we will lose this Democracy.

[karlrschneider]

26. I'm sure you'll get some flames for this but I think you have some good

points. Welcome to DU. :toast:

[JayEEE]

29. Moral of the Story DON'T Trust the Corporate Media

Oh quit being alarmist people...this is one poll by an unknown polling group who used the goddamn telepone...it means jack shit.

[DuaneBidoux]

32. No Alarmism. But realism means ACTION

It's Time to adopt the tactics of the Repugs

[progressivebydesign]

23. Ah.. These polls don't count the unlikely voters..

which ARE the NEW voters this time around. I'm not concerned. Polls are overdone this year.. Even tho people suffered from poll fatigue last time, the media thinks it's imperative to have new one, every four freakin' hours. They are NOT counting the Kerry people, which are the newest voters... they never show up on those lists.

[pajjr]

38. Look

Did we ever believe this was going to be easy. I think Kerry is better then a lot of us give him credit for.

We all have to fight as hard as we can ... I just set up an anti bush site with nice anti-bush bumper stickers and shirts ... check em out better stuff is still coming.

pj
moralparody.com

[spotbird]

41. Their internals must suck, explaining the campaign shakeup.

But it probably isn't double digit lead.

This is actually predictable. Bush is running the campaign that has served him perfectly in the past, and the Democratic campaign is the same old Democratic campaign.

God help us all.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

59. To what "campaign shakeup" are you referring?

[mac56]

43. Doomed. We're all doomed.

For crying out loud, people, step away from the ledge. This is an outlier poll that, if at all accurate, only reflects the post-convention bounce. We need to be operating as though we're ten points behind anyway. "America, this is your wakeup call."

[donkeyotay]

64. step away from the ledge

Alright, sometimes I think I'm on a planet of one, but here's the problem I have with ANY republican bounce.

The Democrats gave a great convention and Kerry a great speech. It received no bounce, and the whores said it was because the country was so divided, people had made up their minds, and the parties were left trying to sway a small group of undecideds.

Logically, (on my planet, anyway) the republicans CANNOT get a big bounce because the same conditions still apply.

If they say they do, somebody's lying.

on edit: changed the word rules to conditions

[bobbyboucher]

44. Come on, you had to know they'd cook up some of this shit.

Call me in two weeks.

[CBHagman]

45. The Nader factor may prove tiny, too.

He's not even a sure thing on the ballot in a number of states. Be cautious about leaping to conclusions on the basis of polls.

I'll say it again: You can't keep the political thermometer in your mouth or other places every minute; you'll drive yourself nuts. I sometimes hear dramatically opposite poll results from two sources within the same 24- or 48-hour period.

[Snellius]

46. Who are these 7-8% of Americans who completely change their mind

in TWO weeks?

"I like him. No, I like him. No. I like him better."

[Dickie Flatt]

65. Hmm.

Since they seem to enjoy flip-flopping, perhaps we can use the RNC's lies about Kerry to our advantage and convince these people he's just like them!

[skip fox]

47. No matter how accurate, it's time for thinking in the Kerry camp, and they

know it and will readjust the campaign. The hope is, they'll take an intelligent course. To which
end I propose the following:

Kerry's been off balance from the first. That was Karl's plan. By the time his campaign reacts to
one charge, a different picture of Kerry is being put forward by or under the direction of the
administration:

1.) most liberal senator
2.) flip-flopper
3.) will not support troops
4.) war record not earned
5.) actually a coward who sought the succor of 3 purple hearts
6.) traitor to the troops left behind with his perjurious testimony to Congress
7.) unfit to command


That brings us up to last night. What's #8? But to know that, you have to know the game plan, the total picture they
are painting of Kerry: He coldly courted power and political viability with every decision of his calculated life. He loves
himself more than the country which he has already sold out a dozen time. Electing him would be a disaster of the
first order. He should thank his stars that the American public doesn't lynch him, for crying out loud. (Like they say,
these fellows knowhow to play hardball.)

Now . . . what's #8? (So we might get back in the game.)

(I.e., these individual pictures are leading to a composite which will be sprung on us at the end of the campaign. If
Kerry can figure out what that composite will be, he can anticipate their next move and react accordingly,
preemptively, and surely.)

[liberalcanuck]

58. Excellent post. This should at least serve as a wake up call to

our party. I'm glad they brought in Joe Lockhart and Dr. Rice. Let's get those * bastards!

[hansolsen]

50. Kerry can't carry us to victory, we have to carry Kerry to victory. Get

to work.

[Snellius]

51. Does this mean that the Al From/DLC/DNC crowd is finally gone?

Hello Howard.

[demoman123]

53. I think we should have run Al Sharpton.

He was the only warm-blooded candidate in the otherwise solid reptilian crew.

(Signed)

Another Mammal for Al

[LondonAmerican]

61. I really wish Dean hadn't been so effectively slimed

by Kerry, the neocons and slimy rightwing radio shriekers.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

55. An ignorant thread based on a poll by a group nobody knows. Amazing.

[Radical Activist]

62. Time will be very embarassed when

their poll is the only one that shows those results and they end up looking like assholes.

Remind me again how a poll taken during the convention is supposed to measure a post-covention bounce. What a bunch of BS!

[robo]

66. I don't care if it is 70 to 30 I'm voting for Kerry

Even if I'm the only vote he gets!!!!!

[WinstonChurchill]

68. Me Too; But Then I'm Gonna Go to Canada

Because I can't live 4 more years with Prez Chimp.

[Seabiscuit]

69. What a crock!

This is the bogus poll being touted on the right wing cable TV channels today. There are two more far more reliable polls that show Kerry/Bush even or 2% apart.

Polls, schmolls. It's all crapola.

[Snellius]

80. I agree. Every independent vote did not suddenly turn for Bush

This poll is just too out of wack with every other poll to be believable, though I think the trend is telling if something doesn't change.

[ElementaryPenguin]

71. TOTAL BULLSHIT! A set-up for the Diebold theft!!!

We're fucked! If they succeed stealing two presidential elections in a row - we may have lost our democracy FOREVER!! Thank you - fascist network media - for helping to produce an ignorant/indifferent electorate!!

[tedzbear]

75. I am voting for Kerry but I have a bad feeling about this...

What if Time is right? Anyone ever consider THAT?

4 more years of Bush is too horrible to contemplate without having serious brain trauma. So I will try and relax by pondering my evil.

:evilgrin:

[keopeli]

76. Noone will read this, but everyone should. This is NOT bad.

Kerry, in spite of the naysayers, knows how to run and win a difficult campaign with smears and money from the other side. He refuses to bow to Bush* tactics of ugly politics just to take the high road. Then, when it really matters...which is after the debates, if not during, that's when he starts hitting hard. Right at the end. Today is not Nov 2.

To support ousting Bush* and promoting Kerry, we should be coming up with ways to convince previous non-voters to vote. All of our friends, especially in battleground states. I know I'm trying hard. These people's votes never show up in polls.

Remember, almost all new voters will vote for Kerry...not Bush*. We already have the base, we need the middle. Bush has to rally his Base, and that alienates the middle. It did this week, and it will continue to do so.

Kerry has a great chance of winning, and needs our support to do so. If you support Kerry, help out. If you don't, just say so and we'll blast your ass out of the water with real facts.

Look at Kerry's election campaign record vs. Bush*. Do the research. Kerry is much better than Bush*. Bush* draws the media, but swing voters aren't interested in what Judy Woodruff has to say. Not even Arnold. They are interested in their health insurance, the draft potential, the lack of jobs, and international instability. And they get their perspective from their friends more than the news (the swing voters).

Be positive. Be hopeful. Be confident. Be active. Do something. Two months left.

Keo

[leesa]

82. Horses**t. Time is a wholly owned subsidiary of the WH.

[bobbyboucher]

85. Hey Dickie

heheheheh..hehe......hehehehehehehe......hehehe.....he...hehe....hehehehehe.

[Name removed]

86. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.