Nationwide Poll Reveals Bush, Kerry Level In Presidential Race

[lovuian]

http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?sid=ba0cda6e0ab584bc

Nationwide Poll Reveals Bush, Kerry Level In Presidential Race
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Big News Network.com Friday 3rd September, 2004

An American Research Group poll released Thursday shows the U.S. presidential race remains tied.

The ARG ballot preference test between John F. Kerry and George W. Bush among registered voters found that 48 percent said they would vote for Kerry and 46 percent said they would vote for Bush, within the plus or minus 3 percent margin of error.

more..

It doesn't look like Bush is doing that good for an incumbant president too me

[leetrisck]

1. He's not - he should be way out in front but the

media keeps making it look as if Kerry is the one not doing well.

[Comicstripper]

I know

I HATE that!
What the hell? For a "New England liberal" who's a "flip-flopper" and "weak on everything", Kerry's doing astoundingly well!
And I still think he'll win!

[Josh]

2. That's exactly right -

and people have been saying, "Well, Bush will get a 5 point bump coming out of the convention."

If you add a 5 point bump to this poll (and most others) his lead becomes anywhere from 2-5 points, within the margin of era (as it goes both ways.)

Realistically, an incumbent needs a 10 point lead coming out of the convention to have a chance at winning.

As for Kerry, let's be glad that the swift boat thing happened *last* month and that his month of limited advertising is over. Besides, Kerry is known for being down and out at this time during a race. Whenever I see a "process story" aobut how his campaign is floundering, I just remember all the other similar stories right before he won every other race he's ever been in (except his first, in the 70s).

[lovuian]

3. I have heard from my Republican friends they are staying Home

They are registered and they may say on a Poll they are going to Vote but they have told me they are conveniently staying home that day

Plus they are not putting Bush signs in their yards like 2000 or having bumper stickers

They are really worried about their small businesses

[Generic Other]

17. Same here

The staunchest of Repubs have switched this summer.

[Seabiscuit]

26. My (very) few Republican friends,

such as my neighbors across the street, who voted for Bush in 2000, will vote for Kerry in November. They despise Bush, who they deem as hijacking the Republican party on behalf of the neo-con radical maniacs, who've gotten absolutely everything wrong.

There IS hope!

[Seabiscuit]

18. Re: Bumper Stickers

Living in traditionally Republican San Diego, California, I've noticed over the past month or two and especially currently, that there are about 10 times as many Kerry/Edwards bumper stickers as there are Bush/Cheney, or W or Bush bummer stickers. Granted, I live near the coast near Del Mar, and not inland (Escondido, etc. where most of the real rednecks live) but in 2000, the coastal areas were still pretty much evenly divided.

For this to be happening ANYWHERE in San Diego, is HUGE.

Not only that, I see Kerry/Edwards lawn signs all over the place around here and I have yet to see a single Bush/Cheney lawn sign.

There is hope if Kerry continues the toughness he exhibited in Ohio after Bush's coronation speech, and gets even tougher. Less than nine weeks to go, and Kerry and his people are going to have to really hammer Bush/Cheney aggressively in every speech, in every interview, and every talk show panel. Right now, the weekest links are the interviews and talk show panel reps - they're toooooo nice. They have to be trained to strike hard and mercilously with the ugly truths about George Bush, et. al. Combine outing Bushco with hard facts and ugly truths, and combine it with sarcasm and ridicule.

[young_at_heart]

4. Bush is a TERRIBLE president

It would be nice if the people who love Bush so much could just read and digest a few of his disastrous policies to the country. Why don't they care about all the deaths in Iraq (soldiers aren't dying for "our" freedom), or the monstrous debt that our children will be forced to pay because of him? How can they just gloss over such misery?

[DuaneBidoux]

24. But you know the worst of all?

It's all the enemies we are making all over the world. Enough enemies to guarantee wars until my grandkids have grandkids. Bush is institutionalizing hate for us all over the world. It is a much worse damage than any budget deficit, or mercury in the water (although those are bad enough).

I travel to both Canada and Europe and so far most of the world is NOT anti-American but Anti-Bush. They are not quite yet ready to be anti-American because they do not believe that Americans truly elected him. If we DO truly elect him watch out. Then you will see REAL anti-American. 95% of the world is currently in total shock that this is even a close election. Their fears are growing.

[The Magistrate]

5. This, My Friends, Is Not A Tie

It is a lead for Sen. Kerry. The "margin of error" is a much mis-represented concept....

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[Zero Gravitas]

8. Exactly right

Within the margin of error is not a "statistical tie".

The polls have a level of "confidence" typically 95%. If Kerry gets 48% & the MoE is +/- 3%) it means that there is a 95% probability that the actual number is between 45% and 51%, likewise if the lesser choice gets 46% there is a 95% probability that the actual number is between 43% and 49%. However, any given number within the MoE range does NOT have equal probability of being correct!

Although it is true that the poll does not rule out the two candidates having equal support or even Kerry being behind, it is still possible to calculate how likely that Kerry's 2% lead is a real lead (75%).

[The Magistrate]

10. And Even, Sir

If each number in the range, for each candidate, did have an equal chance of being correct, then it ought to be clear to anyone who has ever rolled dice that out of forty-nine possible combinations of the two ranges, thirty-three would be advantageous to the candidate with the two point lead, five would be ties, and only eleven would give the advantage to the candidate shown as two points behind....

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[kikiek]

6. I like the dates aug 30-sept 1.

[lovuian]

9. I do too!!! It looks like the Convention isn't going that well

I have noticed the News Media kinda saying Zell and Arnold didn't do the Republicans any good here....

[regnaD kciN]

20. I don't!!!

That means that much of the survey was made pre-RNC, and all of it ended before the mid-point of the convention. That means that the full effect of the convention isn't reflected in that poll.

As of the moment, every poll taken through the final day of the RNC has shown Bush in front, whether by 3% or 11%. Only the next couple of weeks will tell whether that change is the temporary result of being dazzled by the RNC show, or a shift in the American electorate likely to last through November.

But I see no reason at this time to put faith in polls conducted before the RNC made its full impact -- even if they give results more in line with what we want to hear.

[struggle4progress]

7. Presidential Race Still Tight In U.S.

(CPOD) Sept. 2, 2004 – The 2004 United States presidential race remains very close, according to a poll by ABC News and the Washington Post. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for Republican incumbents George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, while 47 per cent would support Democratic challengers John Kerry and John Edwards. Two per cent of respondents would vote for independent candidate Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo, while two per cent are undecided.
<snip>

Source: ABC News / The Washington Post
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 945 registered American voters, conducted from Aug. 26 to Aug. 29, 2004. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=4004


Slightly smaller sample than the American Research poll and concluded several days earlier

[The Magistrate]

11. And In The Event, Sir

Wrecker Nader will not draw more than a fraction of one percent of the votes cast....

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[lovuian]

12. Interesting Recent Poll shows Convention isn't working

:kick:

[LisaL]

13. I also don't think Nader is doing so well

I have yet to see a Nader sign anywhere.
Last election, where there were Nader signs, I only see Kerry -Edwards signs.

[lovuian]

15. Since Time & Newsweek Poll out I thought this one should be

:kick:

[PATRICK]

14. When the two words disappear

"statistical tie", keep them away for good. The margin of error for ball-gazers should be ridiculed and beaten down. The real important thing is confidence and courage among Kerry supporters. We know Kerry has them. For once we have a lead to follow.

Too many people here are still waiting to hear: a good word from FOX, competent journalism from over-paid pundits, a sign of Bush being held to account by some Government agency mysteriously out of his control, a Bush gaffe bad enough to cause irremediable harm, wildly left wing statements of bravado, a heart attack for Nader or Cheney or Rove,

and good polls on soft opinion spinning our way.

Surprise. We don't need any of the above unless we want someone else to lead the ABB way. Surprise, we have work to do, no crutches or institutional bases to take the credit or receive the delegation of our atrophied civic responsibility.

I can hear the spine of Robber Baron Conservatism squeaking as it twists back. Frustrating that rubber can't be broken, but let's just see about that.

[Zynx]

16. They actually got correct sampling:

Or pretty close with 37% Dems, 35% Repugs, and 28% Indies. Newsweek and Time did not.

[llmart]

19. Thanks for the post!

I'm feeling better now. I honestly don't know how I'll feel if we have to live with this doom and gloom administration for 4 more years. They have been nothing but doom and gloom since before they took office. This country will become a collective bunch of old farts if these Repugs are allowed to run it. It is an insidious thing that isn't noticed immediately (except for by people like myself who are always studying human/societal behavior) but it happens and it starts from the top. Look at how upbeat this country was when President Clinton was in charge. He was upbeat and most of the time smiling as opposed to snearing and smirking and crying terruh, terruh, terruh all the time.

[Mz Pip]

21. Taken before or

after Zell Miller's irrational rant?

The fact that the GOP used a senile, mean spirited, dixiecrat as their keynote speaker should speak volumes to anyone who is paying attention that all the compassionate conservative rhetoric is just a load of BS.

MzPip
:dem:

[A Brand New World]

22. I participated in this one!

They called me Wednesday, Sept. 1 around 6 p.m. I live in west central Ohio. Of course, I gave Kerry the thumb's up. They were particularly interested in Union questions after I told them my husband belongs to a Union. They also asked the most important issue in this election and I said the war in Iraq after they said I couldn't choose them all. This was my first political poll.

The next night I went to the midnight rally in Springfield. Great crowd! Didn't get home til 2 a.m. but it was worth every second.

[DuaneBidoux]

23. ALL the polls have been weird for several weeks

The recent Newsweek and Times poll is certainly discouraging. But the Newsweek one did seem to have a significant over sampling of Repugs. The poll above, although most of the statewide polls are older than the convention are showing some states that should be solidly Bush really still up for grabs and some that should be solidly Kerry amazingly close. Arizona had (I think Bush with a 3 point lead but an incredibly large 13 point undecided). If this poll is not screwed up that is TERRIBLE news for Bush in a state that traditionally has gone Repug by a huge margin. An incumbent NEVER wants to have 13 point undecided 9 weeks before an election because undecided usually break for the challenger.

I really think we could be looking at dynamics in this race that pollsters have simply never had to deal with. Incredible grass roots mobilization by both parties. What amazes me is that I can find in my travels many people who voted for Bush last time but won't vote for him this time. I never find one who voted for Gore that intends to vote for Bush. Some flaky stuff going on. That is the only thing of which I'm convinced.

[Red State Rebel]

25. This was taken before the convention started.....

I'd like to see their results for post convention polling.

[sandnsea]

27. Mon - Wed

This was taken during the convention. It's at the end of the article. The convention sucked, the only hope Bush has for a bounce is the lying 'liberal' media.