Think tank paints bleak picture of Iraq's future

[Nambe]

By John Daniszewski, Los Angeles Times

LONDON -- Iraq will be lucky if it manages to avoid a breakup and civil war, and the country can become the spark for a vortex of regional upheaval, a report released yesterday by Britain's highly regarded Royal Institute of International Affairs has concluded.

In a bleak assessment of where Iraq stands nearly 18 months after the launch of the U.S.-led war to depose former President Saddam Hussein, the institute's Middle East team focused on the internal forces dividing the country and the danger that external pressures could make the tendency even worse.

The report noted that U.N. envoy Lakhdar Brahimi had called attention to the possibility of civil war during his visit to Iraq in February. "His warnings should be heeded," it said.

At most, the report suggested, the United States and its allies can hope for a "muddle through" scenario, holding the country together but falling short of their original goal: creation of a full-fledged democracy friendly to the West. The United States will have to keep all of Iraq's factions "more or less on board" through a combination of clever diplomacy and military restraint, it said, while avoiding any hint of U.S. interference in upcoming elections. ..


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[fizzana]

1. They should call themselves

The Royal Institute of the Fucking Obvious.

[AnnitaR]

4. LMAO! Thanks I needed that one!

I'm at work now and you had my spewing Mtn. Dew all over my computer screen! Too funny!

[struggle4progress]

6. They did just change their name but not as you suggest:

IMPORTANT NOTICE - CHATHAM HOUSE REBRAND
From Wednesday 1st September 2004 the Royal Institute of International Affairs will be referred to as Chatham House on printed literature and in the media. Our new logo and web address (www.chathamhouse.org.uk) reflect this change. Visitors to the website will automatically be rerouted from the old web address.

http://www.riia.org/

[goforit]

8. LOL!!!!!.........Good name for a Monty Python movie as well.

[The_Casual_Observer]

2. Then lots of DUers missed their calling as think tank people

This was predicted in great detail here from 2002-March 2003.

[barb162]

3. ditto

but whenever they have doctorates from Harvard and Oxford, well you know.

[GOPAgainstGW]

5. Int'l Intel Says We Started 50 Yr Holy War & WTC 9-11 Was Peanuts

compared to future terrorism strikes on U.S. soil.

Remember Christianity and Islam are the two largest religions in the World with over 1 billion people on both sides!

The Islamic terrorists have been waiting decades for the U.S. to invade a Holy Mecca Middle East Country, so they could incite the Islamic mass to wipe this Country off the face of the planet.

One of our Cartel members has consulted Middle East diplomats for years - WE KNOW WHAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT!

I/WE PRAY THAT EVERYONE CLEARLY UNDERSTANDS THE EXTREMELY SERIOUS SHITE WE ARE IN OVER THIS IRAQ INVASION.

20 years U.S. was in Vietnam/Southeast Asia War, with over 8 million people killed/injured - - PEANUTS to what we stepped into with this Middle East occupation of TWO countries and we want to take down Iran and Syria also!

John Kerry needs to be back in those televised Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearings beating the table, just like he did in 1971, to wake this Administration and the U.S. public up on this mess.

The public has no clue that the U.S. violated the well understood Post-Cold War Middle East Polarization Doctrine that had to be followed to avoid the worst and deadliest Holy War in the history of this planet!

[struggle4progress]

7. Press Release

<snip>
The report ‘Iraq in Transition: Vortex or Catalyst’ claims that the hand over will lead to three likely scenarios:

If the Shi’a, Sunni and Kurd factions fail to adhere to the Iraqi Interim Government (IIG), Iraq could fragment or descend into civil war.

If the transitional government, backed up by a supportive US presence, can assert control, Iraq may well hold together.

A Regional Remake could overtake the other two scenarios if the dynamics unleashed by Shi’a and Kurdish assertiveness trigger repercussions in neighbouring states.

The first scenario is the most likely. Kurdish separatism and Shi’a assertiveness will work against a smooth transition to elections while the Sunni faction continues to engage in resistance. Antipathy to the US presence will grow but in a fragmented, not unified manner, that could threaten civil war. Shi'a Arabs will not settle for a subservient position, Kurds will not relinquish the gains in internal self-government and policing during the 1990s and Sunnis will neither accept a Shi’a-led central government nor a Kurdish autonomy in the north. If the IIG or its successors fail to assert itself as an organisation capable of appealing across Iraq’s societal cleavages, Iraq will fragment.
<snip>

http://www.riia.org/index.php?id=189&pid=168

[dbt]

9. Clever diplomacy? AND military restraint?

Like that's gonna happen! Since when has restraint made a dollar for Halliburton?

:eyes:
dbt