Unemployment rate key for Bush (CNN)

[Nambe]

NEW YORK (CNN/Money)

If the unemployment rate stays at current levels until the election, President Bush stands a much better chance at winning another four years in the White House, a job placement firm reported Monday.

In 10 of the last 14 elections, with some exceptions, the incumbent has been re-elected 71 percent of the time when the unemployment rate dropped below 5.6 percent from August until the election in November, according to Challenger, Gray, & Christmas.

The unemployment rate sank to 5.5 percent in July, even as hiring by employers slowed significantly.

"The economy is always an important issue in voters' minds, especially as it relates to the job market," CEO John Challenger said in a statement. "Most Americans do not pay much attention to gross domestic product growth, the strength of the dollar, inflation or other economic indicators." ..

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. Meme alert: this stat is the only ting they have going for them

and it is hardly enough.

[merh]

7. Meme alert!

This number is "low" because those unemployed folks that have used up their unemployment benefits are dropped from the rankings and are no longer counted.

THE NUMBERS ARE WRONG!

[Soopercali]

10. That's right!

Every other time it was an election year, they signed the benefits extension. Not this time... and we all know who to blame.

[nickinSTL]

2. give me a fing break!

Low unemployment my @ss!

My fiancee has been out of work for 3 years, and in a week or 2 will find out whether she'll get a job that pays about a third what she previously earned.

I have a friend who's a programmer/db admin who's been out of work several months. His wife, who'd much rather be home with their 2year old son, is working a job which I'd guess probably pays around $9/hr max.

Another guy I know's been out of work for most of the last 3 years, and another lost his job about 6 months ago.

ALL IT people. Until the economy picks up and these highly skilled people can get jobs that use their abilities, there's no good news for Bush.

I get so sick of hearing this cr@p.

[stevedeshazer]

12. Right on

In two weeks I begin my new job after 18 months of unemployment. It will pay me about 40% of my previous salary, but will require a lot more than 40% of my previous effort!

I hope everyone remembers this: Once your benefits run out (as mine did MONTHS ago) you are no longer counted as part of the workforce.

These numbers are completely fiction.

[Tempest]

3. There's one major flaw in their reasoning

People going back to work are earning less and are forced to work more than one job.

According to research, people are earning $9,000 less than they were before being laid off.

[bringbackfdr]

4. That is the key economic reality

You nailed it. Folks who were earning $50,000 a year five years ago are working two jobs and earning less than half that. The so-called "underemployed" are not really measured in any way that is understandable to the idiots on TV news, so it is generally ignored. Kerry has tried to raise the issue; he should hammer away at it because it reveals the basic truth that Bush is out of touch with real people's problems.

[nickinSTL]

13. right

I also forgot to mention that I'm working 2 jobs to make up the shortfall of losing my fiancees $60000/year job.

I still make just slightly more than half that at 2 jobs (I'm in grad school trying to improve that number, though)

[GoddessOfGuinness]

16. Do you have a link

explaining the results of this research?
It'd sure be handy...

[Tempest]

18. Economic Policy Institute

I don't have time to find it, but that's the organization who came out with the study.

[GoddessOfGuinness]

19. Thanks! Found it:

http://www.epinet.org/

[takumi]

5. There they go again . . . trying to dumb down the electorate!

I don't care what the unemployment rate says . . . what counts is whether you are better off now than you were before The Chump (ooops, I mean The Chimp) began residing in the White House!

[ItsMyParty]

6. It's the apples and oranges thing

People are hurting either by not finding jobs and falling off the official count or, as mentioned above, having to accept crap. The young man - 30 years old - who has been doing my lawn finally found a job as an accountant 4 years after graduating from college. Yes, he's been cutting lawns for four years. He said it wasn't much but it was a start. No great pay. No vacation or sick leave until there a year. Will have to work around 60 hours a week for a salary set on the basis of 40 hours and week and no healthcare for the family, just him. In my generation, kids working their way through college had better jobs than this crap. News flash to CNN: People aren't looking to the 'stats' to judge how they feel.

[daleo]

8. This sounds like dodgy methodology

"In 10 of the last 14 elections, with some exceptions..."

i.e. after throwing out some data that didn't fit our theory...

[Thor_MN]

9. Is there even the slightest doubt that Friday's numbers

will be puffed up, only to be revised downward sometime in the future?

[louis-t]

11. Quarterly economic growth was adjusted

down yesterday from 3.0% to 2.8%. Small article on page 8E of the local paper.

[hang a left]

14. I think that they might put all those school teachers

who just returned to work in those numbers. What do you think?

[struggle4progress]

15. When did Challenger, Gray, & Christmas become campaign experts?

Don't they make their money finding new jobs for folks that lost their old ones? I bet they just love massive lay-offs and plant closings.

"We are the nation's first, oldest and premier outplacement consulting organization. Our firm has a proven track record of successfully providing top quality outplacement programs for executives, middle managers and long-term or highly valued employees. We pioneered programs for plant closings and large volume reductions with a determined focus on results."
http://www.challengergray.com/whoarewe.aspx

<edit:> Here's another tasty tidbit. CG&C won't help just anybody find a job.

"In order to enter one of our outplacement programs, we require sponsorship by an employee’s company. The reason we cannot accept people without corporate sponsorship is that we cannot overcome the awkward ethical/functional dilemma inherent in working with an 'unsponsored' individual. Good outplacement requires the freedom to counsel the client even when their wants conflict with their needs. In a 'retail' relationship, both parties are either consciously or subconsciously prone to define the client as a customer and therefore the ultimate arbiter of what is right or wrong tactically."
http://www.challengergray.com/outofwork.aspx


So, if you're an executive, or in middle management, and your company is going belly-up or wants to dump you, but you're powerful enough to have the company "sponsor" your search for a replacement job, talk to the campaign experts at CG&C!

[BootinUp]

17. News Alert:

People are happier flipping burgers than having a real job, they get discounts on the lunches and some even learn to cook for themselves.