Faltering Bush plays terror card

[kskiska]

Kerry leads in key states as Republicans mass for convention. Paul Harris reports

George Bush will take the stage at the Republican convention in New York this week to launch a last desperate fight for the White House. With two months to go, one of the bitterest and tightest elections in American history is now in its final stages.

The President is ready for the battle. 'I am not going to come in second place,' he told USA Today last week in a rare interview. But New York is not a welcoming place for Bush and the Republicans.

(snip)

Things are not going to plan for America's 43rd President. A year ago Bush was expected to be invincible; instead he is fighting for his political future. Last week a devastating, dirty campaign against his Democratic opponent John Kerry's Vietnam record continued unabated. Shadowy groups, funded by Republicans close to Bush, have chipped away at Kerry's heroic Vietnam image, but the fight is far from won.

The President's supporters are gathering for what they had hoped would be a victory party against a hopeless opponent. Instead Bush finds himself in a neck-and-neck race.

more…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections2004/story/0,13918,1293117,00.html

[Cush]

1. Hmm, look ast their poll numbers

They have Kerry leading in several swing states, including Florida and Ohio

[Voltaire99]

2. Kerry's electoral college numbers get worse

www.electoral-vote.com

This is a superb site run by a Democrat. In the past month, Kerry's projected EC lead has dipped from +100 to merely 11.

His national and state numbers are falling. Shockingly, he's managing only a 3% lead in California--dismally less than the 12% Gore managed.

"Reporting For Duty" is a non-starter; Democrats want Kerry to talk peace.

[physioex]

3. Any poll that says

3% lead in Ca is totally bogus.....I do not believe...

[NJCher]

4. out of Iraq

Try it, John Kerry.


Cher

[John Q. Citizen]

5. Even the guy who runs electoral vote

says CA looks mighty suspect.

[lapfog_1]

6. The problem with this site

is that he takes the last poll published. So you can see huge
swings in the vote over a one week period. The polls use different
numbers of sample points, different standards for qualifying voters,
etc. For example, the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll uses a standard
of "likely voters" based on statistics from the last few presidential
races... this eliminates first time voters and returning voters
from their poll. There is no doubt that the not-so-swiftboats
had their intended effect. But we also haven't seen the results
yet of the backlash to the not-so-swifties. Polls are not done
the day before they are published, but usually of the course of
the preceding week.

Anyway, take this all with a grain of salt.

There is NO way California is a "swing state" or "barely Kerry".

[PCIntern]

7. If it is..

we're finished anyway - both as a party and as a nation.

But it isn't - no effin' way...

[leesa]

8. Nice try. Total BS.

[Scairp]

9. Why is everyone panicking?

This election at this time is too close to call. Wait until after the debates. If John Kerry can show up the Shrub in these two (or three) debates, he is going to win. The criminals in the WH know this; why else would they limit the debates to two? You can bet they would prefer none. John Kerry has been debating as a senator for nearly twenty years, he can beat the Shrub. Please y'all, don't freak out. That's what the other side wants.

[shockingelk]

10. That page is not a projection

It only shows the results of the most recent state level polls. If you click on a state, you get a nice graph of the state's history, plus a moving average.

This effort shows a progection from aggrates of state level polls: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php - it doesn't include Zogby numbers though.

It shows:

Kerry: 232
Bush: 186
Tossup: 120

I tested a hypothesis of my own about the effect of the SWBT ads, and the hypothesis was confirmed: The SBVT ads have mainly served to polarize the electorate further: http://fearofclowns.com/text/horserace_04.08.27/