Kerry, Bush Are Tied in Presidential Race, Harris Poll Says

[Nambe]

Aug. 21 (Bloomberg)

President George W. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry are tied among likely voters, a Harris poll says. More than half the voters also say they disapprove of Bush's performance in office, according to the poll.

Kerry, 60, and Bush, 58, each had 47 percent of the vote, with independent candidate Ralph Nader, 70, getting 3 percent, according to the telephone survey of 1,012 adults conducted Aug. 10-15. The nationwide poll by Rochester, New York-based Harris Interactive Inc. has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Bush led Kerry, a four-term senator from Massachusetts, by 10 points, 51 percent to 41 percent in June, which Harris attributed to ``a blip caused by the good feeling surrounding'' former President Ronald Reagan, who died June 5. Bush led by 3 points, 46 percent to 43 percent in April, according to the Harris poll.

The latest poll was taken before the recent attention focused on an anti-Kerry advertising campaign by a Republican-funded group of Vietnam veterans. Through media coverage, more than half the U.S. has seen the ads or heard of them, according to a study by the University of Pennsylvania's National Annenberg Election Survey in Philadelphia. ..

[mzmolly]

1. Polling report still shows Kerry ahead in "most" polls.

http://pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

Bush is also falling in the Harris poll:

Bush led Kerry, a four-term senator from Massachusetts, by 10 points, 51 percent to 41 percent in June, which Harris attributed to ``a blip caused by the good feeling surrounding'' former President Ronald Reagan, who died June 5. Bush led by 3 points, 46 percent to 43 percent in April, according to the Harris poll.

:toast:

[Nambe]

2. I hope the polling scandal in Venzuela was a lesson to us.

Remember the poll scandal in Florida in 2000. Dems should take their own exit polls in swing states.

[Yupster]

6. Not a swing state, but

here in Texas exit polls are worthless as over 1/3 of voters vote absentee. Don't know where else that's the case.

[annabanana]

3. "likely" voters.......

Tis the trip wire on all these poles. So many people have just shaken the sleepy dust off their eyes....

[2Design]

4. Polls are media lunch cards and meaningless....kerry won iowa and

the polls did not show that...

[struggle4progress]

5. No Change For Bush Approval In U.S.

(CPOD) Aug. 21, 2004 – George W. Bush maintains a low level of public backing in the United States, according to a poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. 46 per cent of respondents approve of the president’s performance.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3840


Kerry Leads Bush As Vietnam Dispute Continues
(CPOD) Aug. 19, 2004 – John Kerry continues to lead the 2004 United States presidential race, according to a poll by YouGov published in The Economist. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democratic nominee, while 41 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush.
Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of two per cent of respondents. Backing for Kerry remained stable since early August, while support for Bush dropped by two per cent.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3824


Closer Race, But Kerry First In Michigan
(CPOD) Aug. 21, 2004 – John Kerry is holding on to the lead in the state of Michigan, according to a poll by American Research Group. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democratic nominee in the 2004 United States presidential election, while 45 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush. One per cent of respondents would vote for independent candidate Ralph Nader, while six per cent remain undecided.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3842

Michigan Keeps Kerry/Edwards On Top
(CPOD) Aug. 19, 2004 – The Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards maintains the lead in the state of Michigan, according to a poll by Strategic Vision. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democrats in the 2004 United States presidential election, while 42 per cent would support Republican incumbents George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. Independent candidate Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo garner the support of two per cent of respondents, while 10 per cent are undecided.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3822


Kerry Keeps Slim Lead Over Bush In Ohio
(CPOD) Aug. 20, 2004 – John Kerry holds a slight advantage over George W. Bush in the state of Ohio, according to a poll by the Institute of Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democratic nominee in the 2004 United States presidential election, while 46 per cent would support the Republican incumbent. One per cent of respondents would vote for independent candidate Ralph Nader, while another one per cent would back other contenders and four per cent remain undecided.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3836

Bush Closer, But Kerry Leads In Ohio
(CPOD) Aug. 19, 2004 – The Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards is holding on to the lead in the state of Ohio, according to a poll by Gallup released by CNN and USA Today. 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democratic challengers in the 2004 United States presidential election, while 45 per cent would support Republican incumbents George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. Independent candidate Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo garner the support of four per cent of respondents, while four per cent offer no opinion.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3823


Kerry Barely Leads Bush In Iowa Battleground
(CPOD) Aug. 20, 2004 – The state of Iowa is too close to call in the 2004 United States presidential race, according to a poll by Strategic Vision. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards, while 47 per cent would support Republican incumbents George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.
Independent candidate Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo garner the support of two per cent of respondents, while three per cent are undecided.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3832


Kerry Keeps Big Lead In Washington
(CPOD) Aug. 20, 2004 – John Kerry could carry the state of Washington in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Survey USA released by KING-TV. 51 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democratic nominee, while 43 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush.
Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of two per cent of respondents, while three per cent would either vote for another contender or remain undecided.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3829


Kerry/Edwards Holding On In Minnesota
(CPOD) Aug. 20, 2004 – The Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards keeps a slight lead in the state of Minnesota, according to a poll by Strategic Vision. 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democratic challengers in the 2004 United States presidential election, while 44 per cent would support Republican incumbents George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.
Independent candidate Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo garner the support of two per cent of respondents, while seven per cent are undecided.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3831


Kerry, Bush Remain Deadlocked In Florida
(CPOD) Aug. 21, 2004 – The key battleground state of Florida remains too close to call in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Strategic Vision. 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards, while 46 per cent would support Republican incumbents George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. Independent candidate Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo garner the support of two per cent of respondents, while five per cent are undecided.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3847


Bush, Kerry Too Close In Missouri
(CPOD) Aug. 20, 2004 – The state of Missouri has no clear frontrunner in the 2004 United States presidential race, according to a poll by Survey USA released by KDSK-TV. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for Republican incumbent George W. Bush in the election, while 47 per cent would support Democratic nominee John Kerry. Five per cent of respondents would either vote for another candidate or are undecided.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3834


Dead Heat In New Mexico For Bush, Kerry
(CPOD) Aug. 19, 2004 – The state of New Mexico has no clear frontrunner in the 2004 United States presidential race, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for Republican incumbent George W. Bush, while 46 per cent would support Democratic nominee John Kerry.
Michael Badnarik of the Libertarian Party garners the support of four per cent of respondents, while three per cent are undecided.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3820


Bush, Kerry Deadlocked In Wisconsin
(CPOD) Aug. 19, 2004 – The state of Wisconsin has no clear frontrunner in the 2004 United States presidential race, according to a poll by Strategic Vision. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for Republican incumbents George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, while 46 per cent would support Democratic challengers John Kerry and John Edwards.
Independent candidate Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo garner the support of two per cent of respondents, while six per cent are undecided.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3815


South Carolina Looks Safe For Bush
CPOD) Aug. 21, 2004 – George W. Bush would carry the state of South Carolina in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Survey USA released by WCSC-TV. 53 per cent of respondents would vote for the Republican incumbent, while 42 per cent would support Democratic nominee John Kerry. Five per cent of respondents would either vote for another candidate or remain undecided.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3845


Georgia Keeps Bush/Cheney On Top
(CPOD) Aug. 20, 2004 – The Republican ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney would carry the state of Georgia in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Strategic Vision. 54 per cent of respondents would vote for the incumbents, while 38 per cent would support Democratic challengers John Kerry and John Edwards. Independent candidate Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo garner the support of one per cent of respondents, while seven per cent remain undecided.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3838


Bush Leads In Volatile Nevada
(CPOD) Aug. 19, 2004 – George W. Bush is now the top candidate in the state of Nevada, according to a poll by Survey USA released by KVBC-TV. 49 per cent of respondents would vote for the Republican incumbent in the 2004 United States presidential election, while 46 per cent would support Democratic nominee John Kerry. Three per cent of respondents would vote for another candidate, and two per cent remain undecided.
<snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3818

[Zomby Woof]

7. the Naderites

Fuckers need to pull their heads out of their collective asses NOW.

[Mz Pip]

8. I have no idea what they think

they will accomplish. Bush has been a disaster and Nader has zero chance of winning.

I saw this bumpersticker that said: "Not Planning to Vote? Then Vote for Nader"

If you take the time to go to the polls then it seems like you did in fact plan to vote. Why waste your vote on a loser when you can do something productive and help get Bush out of the White House? Be part of the solution, not part of the problem.

MzPip
:dem:

[kohodog]

9. yeah, but Faux had shrub losing

In the electoral vote by a landslide. Tonight!

[Proud2BAmurkin]

10. This is Harris. Means Kerry is ten points ahead.

nt

[leesa]

11. Bullshit.

Gotta make it appear close if they want to attempt to steal it.

[mconvente]

12. Greetings all

Does anyone have election projections from the 2000 election at this point in the race? I want to compare them to the current projections (which at electionprojection.com and some other sites have Kerry leading in popular vote and electoral vote) Even though statistically Kerry and Bush are tied in most polls, I still see tons of Republican sites saying Bush will win without much a cause.

However, check this out (maybe you've seen it before):

http://www.federalreview.com/evsim.htm

This has a 20,000 iteration sample test of who is likely to win the election. Not sure how this is done (maybe it's special coding that has a weighted popular vote toward Kerry or Bush based on their polled lead in that state; IE - if Bush has a lead in a state 55% to 45% then in 100 iterations Bush should get 55 votes and Kerry would get 45 votes, but over 20,000 votes that number could be swayed, possibly by a calculated approval rating and other opinion data). Anyway, however this thing works, it gives Kerry a 3/4 probability of winning the Presidency if the vote were held yesterday. Sounds interesting and good.

Oh, btw, I'm new here. I'm a 17 year old male teenager from Northeast NJ - I just miss the vote by a month!!!! :(
I'm really angered at the report of Cordier being affiliated with the Bush campaign and being featured on those egregious and pathetic Swift Boat Vets for "Lies" ads. We must not be sycophants to the Bush administration. Anyways, I'll do my best to contribute here the viewpoint of a young voter (well almost voter) who is concerned about college education and having a job after I graduate. Hope I can contribute!

[daleo]

14. Welcome aboard

I am sure your contributions will be appreciated.

[TruthIsAll]

15. Welcome to DU and check out my new site...

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[robcon]

13. Most disapprove: tied in voter preference.

How do they reconcile those numbers?

[Berserker]

16. We all Know

polls are meaningless bullshit. Just watch cable news.