Poll: Race Tight Between Kerry And Dean In Massachusettes

[Khephra]

Poll: Race Tight Between Kerry And Dean In Massachusettes

RINDGE, New Hampshire -- A new poll says the race among Democrats in the New Hampshire presidential primary is a toss up between former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry.

The poll shows the rest of field -- including North Carolina Senator John Edwards -- far behind.

Franklin Pierce College polled 606 likely voters this week.

Kerry attracted 20-point-six percent; Dean, 20-point-five percent. The poll has a margin of error of four points.

more......................

http://www.nbc17.com/politics/2090258/detail.html

[blm]

1. Franklin Pierce College at it again.

Marlin Fitzwater sure loves to push Dean. In fact, the whole media has been ignoring the other candidates and pushing Dean for so many months now, you would think he'd have the nomination sewn up by now.

[dajabr]

3. You'd think Franklin Pierce would favor Kerry...

Since he was gracious enough to do the Commencement Address for them this year. :shrug:

[blm]

17. The polls come from the Marlin Fitzwater

school of communications.

[dajabr]

21. I'm sorry...

"Led by Center Director, Rich Killion, students engaged in this initiative experience public opinion research at a grassroots level and gain a rich understanding of civic engagement and the political process. Their work is conducted in the state-of-the-art technology facilities of the new Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication."

http://www.fpc.edu/pages/institutes/poll/index.htm

Do the above-mentioned students that graduate attend their Commencement somewhere other than Franklin Pierce? Who issues their degrees?

[blm]

23. Speaking at a college commencement

and being pushed in the polls by a Republican tool are two different situations.

[dajabr]

25. Just as feasable a theory...

As Kerry's commencement speech being a tactic to cozy up to and influence the students who attend and participate in that "Republican Tool."

[blm]

26. Do you box with that reach of yours?

.

[dajabr]

27. Just holding up that mirror so you can see into it... n/t

[blm]

30. What YOU said has no bearing

on whether or not polls are being taken to purposely inject a sentiment into the Dem primary.

Why pretend that it does?

Kerry speaking at a college commencement doesn't effect the primary race. Marlin Fitzwater backed polls on the Dem primary should be scrutinized. You Deanies don't want to examine ANYTHING. Not even Frank Luntz's curious pro Dean performance on Hardball.

[CMT]

11. what about the ARG poll

showing Dean ahead by 7-points?

[blm]

18. I don't doubt them for a second.

In fact, Dean should be HIGHER in the polls with all the publicity he's been getting for the past 6 months, well over the other candidates put together.

Funny thing, though, when Kerry was ahead in the ARG polls the cable shows would never use those numbers, reporting instead the Pierce polls, Boston Herald polls, and some obscure Massachusetts poll from a group aligned with the GOP. But, NEVER would they report the ARG poll when they showed Kerry ahead of Dean. Now, all the corporate media has reported the ARG polls that favor Dean. I'm sure there's nothing wrong with that.

[stickdog]

31. blm graduated from the Bush school of lowered expectations

A tied poll can be explained by a pro-Dean Republican.

But you don't doubt a poll that shows Dean with an 8-point lead.

Come again?

[dajabr]

2. Nice!

I think Dean's ads were supposed to spill into Mass? Two birds with one stone...

:toast:

[Cha]

4. Good for Dean and Good for us!

[trogdor]

19. Bad for Kerry in particular.

I figured he would be at least ten points ahead in his home state, forchrissakes. Any pools betting on when Kerry will drop?

[Eloriel]

32. He's not that well-liked in his home state

Heheh. In fact, when he faced the fairly popular Republican Gov. Weld in '96, came a point when Weld's numbers started slipping. But Kerry's didn't go up -- UNDECIDEDs did! Bwahahahahaha.

Eloriel

[MaineDem]

5. The subject seems misleading

No where in the article does it talk about Massachusetts, other than Kerry is from there.

Did I miss something? (I know it's the actual title of the article.)

[dajabr]

6. Good catch!

Appears to be a typo. Betcha it's changed in the next hour or so...

[spielino]

7. Dean should enjoy it while he can

Just ask Presidents, Tsongas, McCain, and Anderson. Sure, flame throwers enjoy their 15 minutes as media darlings with their quotable sound bites.....until they quickly crash and burn after New Hampshire.

[AWD]

10. Huh?

Just ask Presidents, Tsongas, McCain, and Anderson. Sure, flame throwers enjoy their 15 minutes as media darlings with their quotable sound bites.....until they quickly crash and burn after New Hampshire.

This from the guy with Lieberman as his avatar? Mr. 4 percent? Mr. "I want school vouchers" in front of the AFL/CIO???

Well, if anybody would know about crash-and-burn, it'd be a Lieberman fan.

[robbedvoter]

20. No, this from someone who wants 9.11 families to get over it cuz

it was Clinton's fault too! Lieberman is purely incidental.

[Eloriel]

33. ROTFL

Go get 'em, tiger!

I LOVE your sense of humor (not to mentional your political acumen!)

Eloriel

[Chico Man]

15. Thats outrageous

Please take the time to get beyond the occasional Dean sound bite and listen to an entire speech.

Do you think Tsongas, McCain, and Anderson had grassroots to the extent of Dean?

Just look at what the tiniest state in the Union is doing.. on and OFF the Internet..

http://www.rifordean.org

[goobergunch]

8. It's within the margin of error...

but it's still interesting that Dean and Kerry are tied.

[AWD]

9. In Kerry's home state???

on edit - misleading headline. I plead guilty to not reading the article.

Thanks for pointing it out to me. I'll have to fire my chief of staff.

[MaineDem]

12. The article is about NH, not MA (nt)

.

[goobergunch]

16. That's what I thought at first, too...

that's where the EDIT in my post comes in.

[Chico Man]

13. "Lieberman is attracting moderates.."

That kind of ticks me off. As if the other candidates do not do well with the "moderate" crowd. Again, Dean gets pigeon-holed into the "Anti-war" liberal crowd.

The statement should read "Lieberman is attracting no one."

Rhode Island for Howard Dean
http://www.rifordean.org

[CMT]

14. headline is confusing

I think it means NH but headlines says Massachusetts? If it were Massachusetts and Kerry was running only 1-point ahead of Dean, then he is in real trouble, but I doubt it is.

[JaneQPublic]

22. Headline has been fixed. It now says NH

It's NH where Dean and Kerry are supposedly neck and neck, not in Kerry's home state.

I'm a Dean supporter, but this poll is not such good news for Dean, since a different poll last week found him to be several points ahead of Kerry in NH.

With 37 percent undecided and the actual primary so far away, it's hardly in the can yet for anyone.

Also, a poll of only 606 people is pretty small, even when we're talking about a population consisting of likely voters of a small state.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

24. Only the polls in February matter.

[ProfessorGAC]

28. Methinks Those College Students Need Calculators

20.6% and 20.5%. A tenth of a percent? Of 606 people? That's 0.6 people!! So, Kerry got 0.6 less people saying him than Dean. Huh?

0.6 people?!?!?!? How the hell did they get a difference of 0.1% with less than a thousand people in the poll?

Some questionable mathematics, that! The confidence interval is based upon the sample size and it's proportion relative to the overall population. So, the +/-4% is correct at a 95% confidence interval. But, the actual result of each candidate has to be separated by a bare minimum of a rounded factor of the smallest degree of discrimination.

Since 1/606 = 0.165%, then the smallest possible difference between any two candidates can be 0.2%. Or, it could 0.17% if maintaining two decimals, but this seems silly with a confidence interval this wide.

If these college students and their prof don't know this, i would strongly question the value of this poll.
The Professor

[dfong63]

29. it could happen, with rounding

if the sample size is 606, suppose

124/606 favored Kerry = 0.20462... rounded up to the nearest tenth percent, that's 20.5%.

125/606 favored Dean = 0.20627... rounded down to the nearest tenth percent, that's 20.6%.

sounds plausible to me.