STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 24 June

[ozymandius]

Thursday June 24, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 214
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 195 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 249 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 462
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 945
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Jeff Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 23, 2004

Dow... 10,479.57 +84.50 (+0.81%)
Nasdaq... 2,020.98 +26.83 (+1.35%)
S&P 500... 1,144.06 +9.65 (+0.85%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.70% -0.01 (-0.13%)
Gold future... 395.50 UNCH (UNCH)


|||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[Maeve]

1. Good morning! Here's the reports we're expecting today

At 8:30 we get Durable Goods Orders for May (expecting 1.5-2%, up from the -3.2% previous) and our old favorite, Initial Claims for unemployment (expecting 340K, up from last week's 336K).

At 10, New home sales in May(expecting 1125K-1165K, up from 1093K) and the Help Wanted Index(expecting to rise from 38 to 39-40).

Oh, and as to that cartoon---the "proof" is probably in the tea; about 80 proof and that's their third pot.

[Maeve]

5. Ouch! Both reports are painful

Durable Goods down and Initial Claims up!
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Orders for new durable goods fell for the second straight month in May. Orders for goods that last more than three years fell 1.6 percent to $189.1 billion, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The decline was unexpected.
here
U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 13,000 TO 349,000

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.00 Change -0.42 (-0.47%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1088060945-9e32d306-11030

Forex - US dollar still in range vs yen, euro in Singapore ahead of FOMC

SINGAPORE (AFX-ASIA) - The US dollar continued to tread water against both the yen and the euro as traders remain sidelined ahead of a US Federal Reserve decision on interest rates at the end of the month as well as Japan's "Tankan" survey for business sentiment due out on July 1, dealers said

At 2.40 pm (0640 GMT), the dollar stood at 108.20 yen, down from 108.35 in early afternoon Tokyo, after touching a low of 108.09 and a high of 108.60 earlier

The euro was at 1.2066 to the dollar, compared with 1.2065 during the Tokyo session, and after trading between 1.2040 and 1.2095 earlier

"The market is thin as many people are away for the summer holidays. Having said that, the market seems to be making short-term bets on the Tankan delivering on the upside," a currency analyst at a local bank said

The yen has been strengthening against the dollar for the past few weeks as economic indicators coming out of Japan seem to solidify the view that economic growth is likely to be robust this year

Apart from relatively stronger fundamentals, the yen's rise also comes on the back of the good performance of its stock markets as well as higher yields of its government bonds. United Overseas Bank treasury economist Diane Ho noted that overnight the dollar fell to an intra-session low of 108.43 yen on back of Japanese trade data, which showed that its trade surplus grew 35.5 pct year-on-year to 934.2 bln yen in May.

...more...

That story seems a bit out of date as the yen has definitely risen against the dollar. :shrug:

Lots of reports are due out today - the futures just took a huge jump into the positive. :shrug:

It's MaeveDay! :hi:

Have a great day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

6. dollar definitely unhappy with report results

Last trade 88.83 Change -0.59 (-0.66%)

[54anickel]

7. Wow, gold breaking the $6 and change rule again - that can't happen!

Have to see what it closes at for the day. The buck is down some more and the futures jump didn't hold for very long. 990N? :tinfoilhat:

[ozymandius]

10. 990N

Should we just rename the S&P the 990N index? I was telling my wife about 990N's domination of the S&P index - relating the info from the furious S&P trader. I said that it looks as though someone is driving the S&P with enough assets to be the Federal Reserve. She said, "Maybe it is the Federal Reserve."

Bravo!

[54anickel]

18. Could this explain the actions of 990N? (From May)

They wouldn't be THAT stupid, would they? :tinfoilhat:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000151&sid=aeFcvwgGrYGg&refer=market_insight

U.S. Stocks' Drop This Year Points to Bush Loss: Taking Stock
May 25 (Bloomberg) -- This year's decline in U.S. stocks, coupled with a rally in energy shares, may foretell an election loss for incumbent President George W. Bush to his Democratic challenger, John Kerry, in November.

Since World War II, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has fallen from the start of the year to the date of a presidential election only twice, in 1960 and 2000. The incumbent party lost in both contests, as it did in 1992, when the benchmark had its smallest gain in a post-war election year. This year, the index has fallen 1.5 percent.

snip>

The stock market ``is kind of an early voting booth,'' said Jeffrey Hirsch, editor in chief of Stock Trader's Almanac, which has tracked patterns in U.S. share prices since 1966. ``Higher energy prices are inflationary and good for the stocks, but bad for the regular person.''

[ozymandius]

31. Honestly!

The blatant stupidity with which our Federal government operates never ceases to amaze me. It's as though the powers-that-be have never left the Nixon years when information traveled at a snail's pace; and your local bar had only three brands of beer; TV was limited to four channels. Likewise, the number of analytically-minded, cynical people was a mere fraction then of its present ranks.

Remember how the Abu Graib photos caught Rumsfeld by surprise because he had not considered the possibilities of digital photography and the Internet? Talk about an incompetent Nixonian dinosaur!

So are there those in government that stupid to perpetrate such a massive fraud with delusions of invisibility? Yes.

BTW- Tinfoil futures are looking up. :tinfoilhat:

[54anickel]

32. I was afraid of that!!! Excellent explaination again Ozy, thanks, even

though it was not what I wanted to hear.

[UpInArms]

3. U.S. weekly jobless claims rise

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38162.3545023148-815469778&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The number of people filing for unemployment insurance rose in the latest week, the Labor Department said Thursday. Initial weekly jobless claims rose 13,000 to 349,000, while the four-week average of initial claims rose 1,000 to 344,250. Economists prefer the four-week average over the more volatile weekly number, which is subject to large revisions and can be skewed by one-time factors such as weather or holidays. In fact, a department official said this week's figure may show an exaggerated increase following last week's decline, which was sharper than it would have been because state unemployment offices were closed in observance of the funeral of former President Ronald Reagan.

[Maeve]

12. In other words....Reagan's death contributed to last week's good numbers

Maybe "pessimism never created a job", but optimism can't, either...unless it's backed up by real economic improvement.

Sorry...just getting tired of the silly idea that if we all believe, the economy will fly like Tinkerbell. (the joys of living in a battleground state saturated with political ads)

[UpInArms]

4. reports numbers

8:29am 06/24/04

U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 13,000 TO 349,000

8:30am 06/24/04

U.S. MAY DURABLE GOODS DOWN 1.6% VS. UP 1.4% EXPECTED

8:30am 06/24/04

U.S. 4-WK AVG JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 1,000 TO 344,250

8:30am 06/24/04

U.S. APRIL DURABLE GOODS DOWN 2.6% VS 3.2% PREV. EST

8:30am 06/24/04

U.S. MAY DURABLE GOOD SHIPMENTS DOWN 0.7%

[UpInArms]

8. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

8:57AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. Futures trade continues to point to a basically unchanged opening for the cash market... Buyers have seen less incentive to step into today's market following yesterday's afternoon run-up - especially in the context of the morning's disappointing economic data, and the bombings/violence in Iraq and Turkey.

8:35AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Durables and initial claims reports were both a bit weaker than expected... have seen Treasury market respond favorably to the data (10-yr +17/32 at 4.62%) but futures market sliding minimally after releases... indications are still suggesting a mixed and relatively flat start for the cash market

8:22AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. Quiet in the futures market ahead of the durables and initial claims reports at the bottom of the hour

8:01AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Foreign markets got a boost from yesterday's positive finish on Wall Street, but futures action this morning is reminiscent of yesterday's pre-open activity, which is to say it is lackluster... current indications point to a relatively flat start for the market.

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near- term. Closes above 1500 are needed to renew the rally off May's low thereby opening the door for a test of the contract high crossing at 1514 later this summer. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1455.50 would open the door for a possible test of the June 3rd low crossing at 1446.50 later this month. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 1.50 points at 1495 as of 6:46 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was slightly lower overnight due to light profit taking but remains above the early- June high crossing at 1142.20. Yesterday's close above the June 8th high at 1142.20 has opened the door for a test of April's high crossing at 1147.10 later this summer. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Monday's low at 1121.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. The September S&P 500 Index was down 1.20 pts. at 1142.90 as of 6:47 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[ozymandius]

9. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

LOOKING FOR DIRECTION

The markets were quiet today. Overall, stocks floundered around break-even for most of the morning but moved higher in the last hour of trading, Treasury Bills, Notes and Bonds were slightly positive, the dollar was fractionally lower versus most major currencies, and precious metals/commodities were mixed but mostly muted with movements up and down within two percent from yesterday’s closing numbers. It sure feels like we’re drifting through the beginnings of the summer doldrums. It’s tough to make any money when there’s no volume and volatility is nonexistent. You traders out there are chomping on the bit to see something happen! Probably the biggest event of the day was the auction of a fresh $25 billion in two-year Treasury Notes that saw better demand than expected. The bid-to-cover ratio for the auction was 2.17 to one, which indicates a fairly healthy demand for the Federal debt paper.

Oil, Gold and Commodities

Crude oil came under some pressure today after the Energy Department reported higher than expected inventories with a build of 2.5 million barrels while expectations called for a build of only a million barrels. August crude settled at $37.57 per barrel, down $0.68 for the day. Just remember $37.00 crude is still relatively expensive in the big picture since we were paying less than $15.00 in 1998-99 and even as recently as 2002 it was below $20.00 per barrel. With energy costs moving consistently higher, we are in an environment of inflation…higher energy costs push prices higher throughout the system just as a basic cost of doing business from air conditioners through transportation.

-cut-

Stock Action

The stock market went blasting out at the highs for the day. It all happened in the last hour with the Dow Industrials at 10,479, up 84 points for the day. The S&P 500 closed higher by nine points to 1,144 and the NASDAQ Composite moved 1.3% higher to close at 2,020. Playing the broad stock indices has been about as exciting as watching the grass grow. Since early December the Dow Industrials has gone from 9,850 to 10,750, a 9% range for a seven month period, and recently we’re stuck in the middle of the range. In the last eleven trading days the Dow has only moved 1.2% from 10,315 to 10,479. The bulls are calling this a break-out day with higher levels to come, but I’m not convinced yet.

-cut-

There are a whole lot of muscle moves going on behind the scenes than meets the eye. It looks like Mr. Bush made some of the wrong people very mad, to the point he could be eliminated from the elections in November. The main stream media is already proposing the uncertainty of a new executive staff. The way it’s shaping up, Bush probably won’t see a second term. As always…time will tell!

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

11. Thinking About ‘Low Probability Events’

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

Despite a plethora of positive global economic data, we are now in one of those market phases in which this good news increasingly clashes with an anxious mood among large parts of the investment community. Contrast for instance the upbeat remarks of the governor of the Bank of England on "a synchronised world recovery" with the warning by Bill Gross of Pimco that the global outlook is at its most uncertain for 20 or 30 years. Commenting on this dichotomy in the May issue of the Central Banker, Kenneth Rogoff, formerly chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, suggests that “people tend to resist thinking about low probability extreme events”. He uses this expression in relation to the risks to consensus economic forecasts of modest US consumer price inflation of some 2 per cent a year stretching ahead. But, as Financial Times columnist, Samuel Brittan observed recently, many low probability events can cumulate to one substantial risk.

What are some of these low probability risks? Three that spring to mind straight away are:

1. A credit revulsion on the part of America’s foreign creditors, resulting in a blow-out in the bond market, rapidly turning today’s credit bubble from boom to bust

2. A hard landing in China, which as the driving locomotive of Asian growth, puts paid to the recoveries in emerging Asia and a nascent economic recovery in Japan.

3. A 1979-style oil price shock as a consequence of the fall of the current regime in Saudi Arabia.

Some of these alleged “low probability events” actually strike us as eminently plausibly medium to high risk outcomes, which the markets have hitherto blithely dismissed. In aggregate, they constitute a real and present danger to global prosperity.

True, some of these risks have been present for years and have yet to impact the markets. But this does not preclude their occurrence in the future, particularly as the circumstances which potentially give rise to them accumulate. Mr Rogoff does cite one of our usual preoccupations, the massive US current account deficit (now approach $600bn on an annualized basis, according to the first quarter figures published last Friday). Like us, Rogoff perceives a deficit of this magnitude to be unsustainable, and postulates the prospect of a sharp, 40 per cent decline in the value of the dollar as a means of ultimately correcting this imbalance.

much more....

[Maeve]

13. Nice opening bounce (9:47)

Altho it may be topping out; not sure...
Dow 10,474.56 -5.01 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,027.00 +6.02 (+0.30%)
S&P 500 1,144.42 +0.36 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.630% -0.068

[ozymandius]

14. Some blather for you.

Stocks Open Lower After Two Days of Gains

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks opened lower on Thursday as investors paused after two days of gains and violence in Iraq (news - web sites) and Turkey weighed on investors' sentiment.

numbers follow...

Stocks Are Mixed on Weak Economic Report

NEW YORK - Stocks were mixed Thursday as investors weighed a weak economic report, a series of attacks in Iraq (news - web sites) and a lower forecast from AT&T.

-CUT-

The markets have been in a torpor all month, ahead of a pivotal Federal Reserve (news - web sites) meeting on interest rates and the hand-over of sovereignty to Iraqis next week. A coordinated spate of attacks in the country, mostly directed at Iraqi security forces, raised further doubts about the likelihood of a smooth transition.

Adding to the uncertainty, the Commerce Department (news - web sites) reported that orders for manufactured goods slipped for the second straight month — a sign that the economic recovery, while strong, remains somewhat uneven. However, for those fearing inflation and the accompanying interest rate hikes, the report could be seen as good news, since demand for big-ticket items could be flagging.

more...

[UpInArms]

15. "What? Me? Worry?"

Has Alfred E. Newman infested the market?

at 9:56 EST

Dow 10,483.57 +4.00 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,027.96 +6.98 (+0.35%)
S&P 500 1,144.77 +0.71(+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.630% -0.068

[54anickel]

16. New Rule on Short Selling

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/24/business/24place.html

SHORTING the stocks of some of the largest companies in the United States is about to become easier. But shorting the stocks that some investors view as the most overvalued will become more difficult.

The Securities and Exchange Commission approved a new rule on short selling yesterday that for the first time in decades will allow some stocks to be sold short even though the price is falling. The original rule, which let investors sell most stocks short only when share prices were rising, was adopted during the Depression at a time when short sellers were blamed by some for the 1929 crash.

The short selling rule was adopted unanimously at the same meeting at which the commission, as expected, voted to require that chairmen of mutual fund boards be independent directors, rather than the head of the management company, as is now often the case.

"The leadership of an independent chairman will be the critical pivot point for avoiding potential conflicts of interest that can in the future lead to new forms of mismanagement, noncompliance and even fraud," said William H. Donaldson, the chairman of the S.E.C.

more...

[UpInArms]

17. U.S. May new home sales set record high

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38162.4170138889-815472695&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Sales of new homes in the United States rose 14.8 percent in May to a record seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.37 million, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. The increase was much larger than expected. Economists surveyed by CBS MarketWatch were expecting a sales rate of about 1.12 million in May. Estimated sales in April were revised higher to an annual rate of 1.19 million from 1.09 million. The number of new homes for sale on the market fell about 0.5 percent to 372,000, representing 3.3-months of sales at the May pace. New-home sales surged in the Northeast and the South. Sales rose about 53.2 percent in the Northeast to 121,000. This is the biggest gain since March 2003. Sales rose about 20.3 percent in the South to a record 663,000, the biggest gain since July 1995. The median sales price rose 1.5 percent year-over-year to $198,400.

[Frodo]

20. Whoa! That number is a stunner.

It's never even come close to that before.

I suspect that for the first few months of rising mortgage rates we may actually see strong housing demand as the "now or never" crowd gets off the fence.

I can't guess what else this could be.

[UpInArms]

23. Frodo, can you

explain (as you would to a child) how these are "adjusted"?

seasonally adjusted annualized rate

[Frodo]

38. As I would a child?

I'm not sure how I would do that. "That's just the way it is" sounds good to me.


Seriously, There's a normal ebb and flow to the real estate market. So they just norm it to an "average" year (probably . You'll still see weather fluctuations because one February can be worse than another, but it's pretty straignforward.

I don't think there are any "birth/death" kind of issues here. Nor do I think the number is all that remarkable now that I think about it. Like I said, it's probably all those fence sitters who realize "rates will only go up from here" (not that they are necessarily right) and are rushing out to buy houses. This is supported by the declining "supply" of new homes

[UpInArms]

19. Market Numbers and blather at 10:14 EST

Dow 10,478.83 -0.74 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,027.19 +6.21 (+0.31%)
S&P 500 1,145.05 +0.99 (+0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.626% -0.072

10:00AM: New home sales came in better than expected at a record 1369K as a drop in borrowing costs lured homebuyers...The market is hesitant to move higher this morning, despite yesterday's impressive end-of-day rally, as the recent terror attacks in Iraq/Turkey spark safety plays...Treasuries remain very strong while gold has staged an impressive +1.5% rally in overnight and early morning trading...Unfortunately, last night's attacks will likely bring back some of the uncertainty in the market that dominated trading yesterday...

This morning's less noticed Help Wanted Index came in-line implying that employers are hiring as expected...NYSE Adv/Dec 1459/1007, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1438/914

anyone have any dramamine?

[54anickel]

21. Second Quarter Earnings Cheer Sets a High Bar

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/rebeccabyrne/10167578.html

The best preannouncement season on record finally may be translating into better stock returns for investors, but some analysts worry that the good news won't continue.

For the first time since Thomson First Call started tracking earnings data, positive preannouncements for the second quarter actually have outweighed negative warnings. Indeed, 45% of the 203 companies that have provided previews of the second quarter so far expect to beat expectations, while just 36% expect to miss the numbers. About 19% expect to meet estimates.


The optimistic news has led to the highest upward-earnings revisions on record, with First Call now looking for 26% earnings growth in the second quarter, up from just 14% three months ago. In the first quarter, earnings rose 27.5%.

snip>

Still, some analysts are increasingly concerned about what lies beyond the second quarter. David Joy, vice president of capital markets at American Express Financial Advisors, said earnings growth should slow down in the third and fourth quarters as comparisons become "increasingly difficult."

"The going will only get tougher for corporate operating performance," he said.

First Call expects earnings to rise 14% in the third quarter and 15% in the fourth, a marked deceleration from the first half of the year.

snip>

Meanwhile, Saut noted that roughly 85% of the S&P 500 companies have defined benefit pension plans that are underfunded to some extent. When pension plans become sufficiently underfunded, companies are required to make cash contributions, and that can hurt earnings.

What's more, Saut said many of these firms still are estimating high rates of return on their pension assets. An accounting quirk lets companies book gains on the basis of assumed rates of return, not the actual rate. "We believe the powers that be will address these option and pension plan issues over the next 18 months, implying that the 2005 consensus estimate for the S&P 500 is too high," he said.


more...

[54anickel]

22. The Ever More Graspable, and Risky, American Dream

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/24/business/24housing.html

ANAHEIM, Calif. - For years, Ray and Shahrazad Daneshi sought to buy a home, only to be told that they did not earn enough to qualify for a mortgage. But they recently managed to buy a small house in the shadow of Disneyland for $360,000 - six times their annual income - thanks to a lender who allowed them to borrow the entire value of the home, with no down payment.

"We will not be going to any movies or eating out at restaurants," said Mr. Daneshi, a self-employed wedding photographer who came here from Iran in 1988. "But in two years, the house will be worth a lot more and we will have something to show for it."

The Daneshis' purchase underscores the new, ever-optimistic economics of home buying. A kaleidoscopic array of mortgages for people with little cash or overstretched budgets has enabled families of modest income to take on debt that once would have been beyond their reach. As long as new home buyers could count on rock-bottom interest rates and housing values were going nowhere but up, this seemed to be a virtuous circle.

But now, with the Federal Reserve expected to embark on a series of interest rate increases starting with its meeting on June 30, some experts worry that recent first-time buyers could find easy home ownership a lot harder on their wallets, possibly causing housing prices to wobble in some high-price markets.

more...

[UpInArms]

24. well!

"We will not be going to any movies or eating out at restaurants,"

that ought to spur some really great economic growth!

[Maeve]

25. Oh, dear. When do we get the headline "Mortgage defaults at all-time high"

Seriously, the rule of thumb is 2X your annual income and they are beginning with NO equity....what kind of monthly payments will they have?
Too risky for me to even contemplate!

[54anickel]

26. Wasn't there also a bill recently proposed or passed that will make

filing for bankruptcy much more difficult?

Why is that song with the line "I owe my soul to the company store" stuck in my head now?

[UpInArms]

27. there's a really interesting thread

regarding the not so beneficial differences between renting and buying - first time buyers (or paying mortgages) are finding out that "owning" has its own set of troubles - insurance, taxes, repairs, roof replacements, etc - that are all added to the top of the ownership pile - renters, on the other hand - are immune to those costs and they are absorbed by the landlords. So much is such a surprise to so many :shrug:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=640831&mesg_id=640831

[54anickel]

28. Here's a start - Cashing in on debt collection

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0624Collections24.html

Consumers' busted budgets have created boom times for collection firms.

As Americans struggle to pay off a mountain of non-mortgage debt that now exceeds $2 trillion, more independent companies are buying up portfolios of unpaid auto, credit card and other loans, then hiring armies of phone reps to collect what they can.

The Valley has become a base for this growing industry, with several hundred firms operating here, including four of the industry's 10 top players.

"We've made a key commitment to Phoenix because we feel it's a terrific place to expand," said Andrew Zaro, president and chief executive officer of Cavalry Portfolio Services LLC, a top-10 collection firm that employs about 225 people at an office near Sky Harbor International Airport. The company plans to nearly double its number of employees over the next two years.

more...

[Maeve]

29. Ooooo! Job creation!

Collections and repos, a growth industry :eyes:

[UpInArms]

30. Market Numbers and blather at 10:43 EST

Dow 10,474.71 -4.86 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,024.27 +3.29 (+0.16%)
S&P 500 1,144.51 +0.45 (+0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.626% -0.072

10:30AM: The market is holding near the session highs but isn't showing signs of conviction for a move in either direction...The Nasdaq is slightly outperforming the Dow and S&P while small and mid-caps lead the pack with roughly +0.30% gains...Post secondary education stocks are doing poorly following this morning's downgrade of Career Education (CECO, - 3.08%) as shares of the University of Phoenix (UOPX, -6.66%) and Apollo Group (APOL, -7.03%) both plummet despite beating street estimates...

The record new home sales data and the run-up in treasuries this morning are giving homebuilders a boost while the attacks in Iraq/Turkey maintain safety plays...NYSE Adv/Dec 1785/1041, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1650/962

Have to go away for a while - hopefully back later :hi:

[54anickel]

33. Side note for Techies: Comdex Cancels November 2004 Convention

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/technology/AP-Comdex-Canceled.html

SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) -- The venerable Comdex convention, which for nearly 25 years showcased the latest and greatest in high tech in Las Vegas every November, is canceling this year's show after years of declining attendance and interest.

Show organizer MediaLive International Inc. described the cancelation as a ``postponement'' and said Wednesday that it had formed an advisory board to reshape the troubled event. The company also said the next Las Vegas show would take place in November 2005.

snip>

During the tech boom, Comdex lured more than 200,000 people and filled more than 1.2 million square feet of convention space.

But several companies -- including Dell Inc., International Business Machines Corp. and Intel Corp. -- stopped leasing exhibit space, depriving Comdex organizers of revenue. Instead, many rented suites at nearby hotels and hosted gatherings there.

When the tech bubble burst, Comdex attendance and exhibitors plunged, forcing the organizer -- then Key3Media -- into bankruptcy. The 2003 show was refocused to appeal to corporate buyers and sellers, not consumers and general gadgetry.

[KoKo]

36. Odd..aren't there many new gadgets out there to intice us GDP supporters?

Makes me wonder about those who are still chasing after "tech" in their 401-k's and Mutual Funds. If they can't even mount a show for all the goodies and hype up consumer awareness then what is going to fuel a recovery? And, is the absence of interest in new tech toys with nothing else to give a boost to employment the lead reason Greenspin and 9909N are working so hard to spread fairy dust of Asset Wealth? And, to drive us into more and more debt hoping some new invention will replace tech to increase employment and get us going again?

UGH!

[54anickel]

39. Personal anecdotal view of the tech boom -

When I started in the industry, way back in the 80's the procurement decisions were left to us techies and chipheads to keep the systems up and running. Comdex was developed around these techies and chipheads, lots of hardware and more of the guts of the operating systems.

Then technology moved more and more into the financial areas of the business as the applications of inventory and accounting became more integrated and shrink-wrapped into one size fits all packages (with a little tweaking by expensive consultants) were introduced (instead of being written in-house). This also caused a shift of the responsibilities for procurement decisions to move into the upper management realm, CFOs and the like with little tech knowledge were making the decisions based on what some sales person was telling them they needed. The techies were sort of bumped out of the picture (although we had to deal with whatever crap the "suits" came home with and "make it work"). Very lucrative for sellers of tech, and also when I made the change from being on of those inside the business techies to one on the sellers side of tech. Needless to say, this shift brought a change in the way Comdex was presented. All slick presentations of the latest and greatest bleeding edge technology. "Ya just gotta beat your competition into implementing this stuff or you'll be way behind the curve" sort of sales pitch.

Then came all of the FUD around Y2K, oh was business brisk then! It was great, all these companies ripping out EVERYTHING to replace it with the newest, just in case that old desktop, acting like a dumb terminal from the server can't understand the friggen date. Didn't matter that all the calcs were done at the server end and that desktop was nothing more than a stinking screen display device! But, you see the decisions were being made by the suits not the techs. Techs LOVE getting new "stuff", but they would have never gone on the limb to ask for the money for all this updating if it was their decision, along with their ass, as they would need to justify the cost. Now they were being "mandated" to play with the new toys. Everyone was happy!!!

Ah, but alas, since they spent all that money in the 1 - 2 years before Y2K that they would normally have spent over 3 -4 years it all dried up. No interest in what Comdex might have to offer or show, they blew their wad for the future.

So, Comdex instead had all that cutesy, just gotta have consumer electronic stuff. Vendors of business hardware and apps just don't get any buying traffic in these sort of shows. Besides, who wants to waste money on a booth where you might sell one-zees two-zees of consumer stuff when your in the business to sell thousands of systems to corporate buyers. The few business vistors to Comdex after the tech crash were put off by all this consumer gadgetry as well - not what they'd come to expect from Comdex.

So, when I take my own personal experience and combine it with the Comdex decision to hold off for a year, IMHO we are looking at a "vitual" recovery. One based on "financial engineering" vs a real economic recovery. Why? If this were a real recovery then Comdex and it's participants are missing out on the chance of a lifetime. Corps have not spent $$$ serious on their tech infrastructure for 5 years now. Most were on a cycle to replace that "stuff" (due to changes in depreciation schedules of capital expenditures) of 3 years. If this were a "real" recovery they would be chomping at the bit to update their systems as they are now considered obsolete and there's no tax advantage to keep those older systems limping along (maintenance has got to be getting pretty expensive for them).

That's my 2 cents on it anyway.

[KoKo]

43. Thanks "54" for your insider view of this. Explains alot. I remember the

breathless CNBC coverage of this event towards the end of the bubble, when they couldn't wait to show the latest gadget that one just "had to have" when the suits made the switch from "business to consumer toys and gadgets."

Your post reminded me of when new software and business applications were the focus of COMDEX. (It seems so long ago)

Interesting observation about Y2K in that most of the equipment bought in the hype is getting old and even with Bush's big depreciation incentives, not enought companies are upgrading their tech equipment. I think they are buying "Hummers" instead.:D

[54anickel]

34. Big Paydays for Bad CEOs

http://www.thestreet.com/_tscfoc/funds/supermodels/10167500.html

Leo Tolstoy once wrote that all happy families resemble one another, while each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.

In the business world you could flip that around, for it seems that many unhappy companies resemble one another: According to mail from more than 1,000 readers of this column on the subject of the nation's worst chief executives, a great number of dysfunctional companies are run by tyrants who gouge gross compensation packages for themselves and their cronies out of the hides of their workers and customers.

What makes a terrible CEO in the minds of so many investors and employees is not merely poor decision-making on the allocation of capital and other resources. Almost everyone can tolerate well-intentioned plans that go awry. It's the ugly way that some CEOs have normalized the behavior of compensating themselves at increasingly more obscene levels -- often on the basis of self-set relative performance targets that fail to account for the absolute performance that matters most to all stakeholders: long-term corporate value as reflected in a higher stock price.

snip>

It is clear that the stealthy creation of a chief executive royalty class, oddly unhampered by the corporate accounting and criminal scandals of the past few years, threatens to undermine our market-based system. California politicians -- who know a populist cause when they see one -- vowed last week to scuttle the WellPoint deal. If they do, they'll be offering a government solution to a market problem -- a slippery slope leading to higher costs for everyone.

You would think that major companies by now would be more thoughtful about the perception of selfishness, and try to avoid public ridicule. But the practice of piggish compensation continues unabated, wrapped up in the "I'm OK, you're OK" rubric of relative merit.

more...

[54anickel]

35. 990N Update (tinfoil firmly in place)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mackenzie/mackenzie062404_990.html

Yesterday I discussed the possibility of a rogue trader being behind the action in the S&P Emini's with a large trader of these contracts. He confirmed what I had been told by a number of sources both on and off the floor: "Igor" had been making a fortune collaring the market since November of 2003.

This trader accounts for 20% of the volume in the S&P Emini's. Many traders I have spoken with believe this trader, now a group of three to four traders have somehow figured out the interventionist's game plan and are actively trading in lock step with it.

Others believe this "rogue" trader is the market, I can assure you, that is not the case.

Although the trading pattern suggests collusion on the part of the CME and large institutions that make up the balance of the volume, no one has seen fit to address the illegality of this activity, other than to suggest it is currently "under investigation."

Many traders have suggested there is an active "linked bid" with very large order depth behind this trader to support their ongoing activity. This is confirmed by both sides of the order queue whereby orders placed are moved throughout queue and re-assigned placement. The depth of bid/offer is very large.

more...:tinfoilhat:

[KoKo]

37. Off subject of S&P, did anyone notice the "tandem" spike in the charts

of the NASDAQ and DOW yesterday when both indices had been pretty much flatlined all day? The spike in the market close to the bell occurred exactly in tandem. I couldn't get the charts posted here for you guys to see it (how do you link the Yahoo Finance charts, anyway) but I was reading something on YF and my eye caught the spike going up on the NASDAQ chart as it happened. A click to the DOW showed the tandem move.

Someone captured this same phenomenon and posted it here on MW a few months ago. I don't know how many times it's happened since, but I caught it yesterday. This is just not the way it's supposed to work. What are the mathematical percentages of buyers coming into the market at the same time with the same amount of $$$'s to move NASDAQ and DOW charts up at precisely the same spike?

This market is manipulated and I want to know why something isn't being done about it! Stamping foot and swearing loudly. We know that we aren't the only ones observing this. But why aren't more folks speaking up, or maybe 990N speculation is the rumor that will get some attention to the possiblility of big time manipulation in the whole market? :shrug:

[54anickel]

40. It's been happening quite often lately. Even the blather will point to

one or the other indices (most recently it's been pointing to the S&P) supporting the others. I guess you could just say a "rising tide raises all ships". :eyes:

You used to see stuff moving out of the Nasdaq and into the DOW which the blather would explain as "flight to quality". Man, that hasn't happened in a long time.

[54anickel]

41. 12:32 lunchtime update

Dow 10,474.64 -4.93 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,029.14 +8.16 (+0.40%)
S&P 500 1,144.99 +0.93 (+0.08%)
10-yr Bond 4.628% -0.070
30-yr Bond 5.326% -0.057

NYSE Volume 674,662,000
Nasdaq Volume 871,649,000

12:00PM: This morning has been plagued with the overnight attacks in Iraq/Turkey and that is really putting a stall on yesterday's late session rally...We cannot get a sense of follow through today because of the terror jitters forcing the safe-haven bids in treasuries and precious metals...We have seen some nice upside to homebuilding stocks this morning following a record high in new home sales while a drop in durable goods bid treasuries higher while undercutting manufacturing...
Post secondary education stocks are doing poorly following this morning's downgrade of Career Education (CECO, -4.49%) as shares of the University of Phoenix (UOPX, -7.53%) and Apollo Group (APOL, -7.23%) both plummet despite beating street estimates...Telecommunication stocks are under performing the broader market on overall weakness in AT&T (T, -8.96%) following last nights earnings warning and the slew of price cuts and downgrades that followed...A.G. Edwards (AGE, -3.02%) missed street estimates this morning and is weighing on the investment banking while Del Monte (DLM, -9.18%) reported in line earnings but lowered guidance, adding to yesterday's losses in food processing...

Overall, the market looks healthy as new 52-week high/lows continue to improve to 17-to-1 on the NYSE and 10-to-1 on the Nasdaq while the AD line holds an upwards slope...NYSE Adv/Dec 1973/1122, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1748/1137

11:30AM : The market has taken a sideways approach to this morning's string of data as a lack of conviction remains in the market...Breadth figures look bullish today as the leadership list clearly outweighs the laggards...The market is just reluctant to move higher as consolidation takes shape in light of yesterday's end-of-day rally...The strength is there but the recent terror attacks have added in a short term risk premium...Treasuries continue to press higher on a flight to quality bid following the attacks as 10-year yields reach as low as 4.610%...

Safe-haven gold is holding on to earlier gains as prices rise to $401.30/troy oz and hold above the psychological $400 level...NYSE Adv/Dec 1922/1122, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1650/1195



Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1935 (58%) 1684 (54%)
Declines 1223 (36%) 1245 (40%)
Unchanged 162 (4%) 159 (5%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 353 (56%) 513 (61%)
Down Vol* 268 (42%) 309 (37%)
Unch. Vol* 9 (1%) 13 (1%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 177 108
New Lo's 16 13

[54anickel]

42. The Big Blue - Contrasting Values (Same guy that brought us 990N)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mackenzie/mackenzie062404.html

Alan Greenspan's remarkable 1966 essay on " Gold and Economic Freedom" stands up as one of the more remarkable declarations against the " Statists' " transfer of wealth and economic power through their antagonistic approach towards the Gold Standard. The implications are clear, the Fiat Money regime and fractional reserve banking make little economic sense, are immoral /dishonest and are wholly unconstitutional as the guidelines laid down by our founding fathers suggested 200+ years ago.

Recently, following a House Banking Committee meeting, Chairman Greenspan was asked if his position had wavered towards this testament to confiscation of wealth through the most insidious tax of all, inflation. In response to the addition of "disclaimers" Chairman Greenspan's said he still "...would not change a single word."

It is troubling to observe the path Alan Greenspan, Chief Central Banker, has taken since his appointment to Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Some would suggest he has been corrupted by the Political Limelight and therefore ruined. I tend to observe a different tact that aligns in sum with his recognition of immense structural changes within the broad U.S. economy and do happen to believe our Chairman is all too aware of his transgressions. In no way does this absolve the moral obligations gone wanting, but for the purpose of this analysis, I prefer to keep the focus upon the structural challenges the Federal Reserve has had to meet head on.

Just as Chairman Volker had removed the punch bowl as the party had begun to gyrate wildly out of control, Chairman Greenspan's tact was far different... as the party languished on until the wee hours with an empty bar, Alan Greenspan arrived with supply... ten deep in the well.

Wall Street's imbued hangover caught an enormous second wind as the promise of liquidity was brought forth to stand and deliver. And with the promise came Executive Order 12631 signed by Ronald Reagan on March 18, 1988:

Executive Order 12631 - Working Group on Financial Markets - Mar. 18, 1988; 53 FR 9421, 3 CFR, 1988 Comp., p. 559.

more...

[54anickel]

44. Hmmm, a 10 billion overnight repurchase agreement was entered

yesterday. Of course there was that Treasury auction.

http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE

[54anickel]

45. CRIPES, Look at gold! Someone's gotta bring that down under $7 before

the close!!! Notice silver is up over $6 as well. Yet the buck doesn't look too bad.

Last trade 88.69 Change -0.73 (-0.82%)

Then again it was up to 89.65 in the wee morning hours....

[54anickel]

46. Gold, Silver Surge on Safe-Haven Buying After Bomb Blasts in Iraq, Turkey

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/commodities.html

24 (Bloomberg) -- Gold futures in New York surged above $400 an ounce for the first time in two months after bombs exploded in Iraq and Turkey, boosting the metal's appeal as a safe haven. Silver had its biggest gain in seven months.

Gold has gained 4.4 percent since June 16 as violence escalated in Iraq, where the Associated Press reported at least 69 people were killed today. Some traders buy precious metals as a hedge against declines in other investments in times of political unrest. The dollar fell against the euro for the first time this week, reducing gold's cost for buyers in Europe.

``You get these short-term boosts that suggest people are going to buy gold because it's going to hold its value in uncertain times,'' said James Vail, who manages $120 million in gold and other natural-resource stocks at ING Investments LLC in New York.

Gold for August delivery rose $6.60, or 1.7 percent, to $402.10 an ounce at 1:01 p.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, climbing above $400 for the first time since April 20. The metal has climbed 16 percent in the past year and reached a 15-year high of $433 on April 1.

Silver for July rose 29.5 cents, or 5 percent, to $6.17 an ounce on the Comex. A close at that price would be the biggest one-day gain for a most-active contract since Nov. 12. Silver reached a 16-year high of $8.50 on April 2.

more...

I'll have to mark today on my calendar, the $6 and change rule has been broken. Will they be able to bring it back down tomorrow? Tune in again for another episode in "As the Market Spins".

[54anickel]

47. What's an Investor to Do? Sit Tight - In Cash, Gold and Gold Stocks

http://www.kitco.com/ind/GoldReport/june232004.html

Let's start with a few quotes from Jeremy Grantham, Chairman of Boston-based Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. -- in a letter to clients (I'm using this quote, by the way, because I agree with it). "We face the broadest, overpricing of all assets yet recorded: global equities, global bonds -- and with few exceptions, global real estate. By far the most important single market, US equities, is particularly badly overpriced.

Could Mr. Granham be right? I believe he is.

A Bloomberg rundown of almost 18,000 long-term funds, shows an average year-over-year increase of just 0.6 percent. Stock funds showed a 1.7 percent gain and bond funds showed a 1.6 percent loss.

For the year, so far, most of the major stock averages have done little. But don't despair, we have asset inflation. Wait, you may not have it in your neck of the woods, but we sure have it here in San Diego, which also happens to be the least affordable market in the nation. In San Diego the median resale price for listed San Diego County homes in May 2004 was $448,000, an increase of 35.56 percent from a year ago. Every lousy little "shack" here in La Jolla sells for a million bucks or more. I've never in my life seen such sheer insanity in housing.

snip>

We're in the midst of a "balance sheet recession," meaning a period when the air is being slowly let out of the great bubble -- it's a period where corporations are moving towards liquidity and solvency again. And it's a period where the American public hasn't even started to move towards solvency, let alone actually saving.

You don't believe it? Here's a headline and a lead paragraph from today's Financial Times –

"Corporate Loan Demand Tumbles. A slump in corporate borrowing has depressed pricing of loans to an eight-year low and raised concerns that banks may be mispricing risk to secure and retain business." Even Alan Greenspan noted this phenomenon in a speech last week, when he stated that corporations are now paying off more in debt than they're paying out in loans.

more...

[54anickel]

48. 2:07 update - Setting up for last minute bargain hunters?

From the charts it looks like another bounce might be in the air.

Dow 10,461.73 -17.84 (-0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,021.97 +0.99 (+0.05%)
S&P 500 1,142.89 -1.17 (-0.10%)
10-yr Bond 4.648% -0.050
30-yr Bond 5.341% -0.042

NYSE Volume 905,053,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,139,897,000

1:30PM: Activity is tapering off as the market continues to compress in consolidation from yesterday's end-of-day rally...Little has changed in the last 30 minutes as treasuries, precious metals and crude oil hold on to earlier gains from overnight developments in the Middle East. Homebuilding and casino stocks are adding to earlier gains while UAL (UALAQ, -0.03) posted modest profits for May, offering support to airlines...New 52-week highs and the A/D line continue to look strong on the NYSE and Nasdaq...NYSE Adv/Dec 1978/1227, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1729/1262

[54anickel]

49. Then again, maybe not at 2:13

Dow 10,457.98 -21.59 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,020.62 -0.36 (-0.02%)
S&P 500 1,142.81 -1.25 (-0.11%)

[Maeve]

50. Not the happiest afternoon so far

Dow 10,455.16 -24.41 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,018.51 -2.47 (-0.12%)
S&P 500 1,141.99 -2.07 (-0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.645% -0.053

[54anickel]

53. Even sadder at 3:08

Dow 10,444.69 -34.88 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,014.88 -6.10 (-0.30%)
S&P 500 1,141.15 -2.91 (-0.25%)
10-yr Bond 4.646% -0.052
30-yr Bond 5.341% -0.042


3:00PM : The markets have stabilized the afternoon declines over the past 30 minutes and are relatively unchanged for the day...The market is really showing a 'summer' attitude as a lack of credible volume and conviction keep the markets fairly quiet...For the year, the major averages are virtually unchanged while interest rates have climbed from roughly 4.25% to 4.75%...The flat trading in equities seen over the past 6 months is largely a reaction to the rise in interest rates as higher borrowing costs counter the growth seen over the first 2 quarters...
With the FOMC meeting next Wednesday, the market should continue to channel in a holding pattern in anticipation of the expected 25 bp tightening...At this point the market should have already priced in a "measured" 25 bp move...As a result, next week's decision may offer a muted reaction...NYSE Adv/Dec 1857/1407, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1627/1424

2:30PM : The market continues to turn over, giving back part yesterday's late-session rally as light volume persists due to a lack of conviction...With only an hour and a half of trading remaining, the charts are starting to look rather bearish...The fact that we couldn't hold on to yesterday's move attests to the directionless motions of the market...The market is really striving for a catalyst to break out of the recent ranges...

Food retail stocks are holding onto nice gains today after a healthy run over the past 6 weeks, led by strength in Kroger (KR, +1.22%) and Albertson's Inc. (ABS, +1.2%) following the conclusion of the California grocery strike...In addition, grocers have been better suited to pass on higher costs to the consumers due to the bustling economy...NYSE Adv/Dec 1858/1386, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1621/1413

2:00PM : The market is turning over a bit as the major indices set new afternoon lows on light volume...The broader market has kept ranges pretty tight today as a continued lack of conviction in the market keeps volume light and trading sideways...Nothing has fundamentally changed over the past half hour as technical trading takes hold of the broad based averages...Treasuries remain strong from safety bids, but have come off of the session high, as gold continues its push to levels not see since April...

Tomorrow the market will be looking forward to GDP figures before the bell at 8:30 ET with UofM Sentiment and existing home sales to follow at 9:45 ET and 10:00 Et respectively...NYSE Adv/Dec 1970/1249, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1707/1304

1:30PM : Activity is tapering off as the market continues to compress in consolidation from yesterday's end-of-day rally...Little has changed in the last 30 minutes as treasuries, precious metals and crude oil hold on to earlier gains from overnight developments in the Middle East. Homebuilding and casino stocks are adding to earlier gains while UAL (UALAQ, -0.03) posted modest profits for May, offering support to airlines...New 52-week highs and the A/D line continue to look strong on the NYSE and Nasdaq...NYSE Adv/Dec 1978/1227, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1729/1262

1:00PM : Sideways action persists in typical light volume as the blue chips continue to under perform the major averages...Gold is adding to earlier gains, currently at $402.30/troy oz (+1.74%), as safety plays continue to develop...Casino & gaming stocks have been catching a bid all session on a report that a slot machine bill may pass in Pennsylvania, allowing as much as 60,000 slot machines in the state...Makers of the gambling machines, particularly International Game Technology (IGT, +5.47%) and WMS Industries (WMS, +6.38%), caught a bid on the news and lead the industry higher...

Overall, the market remains in a holding pattern in anticipation of next week's FOMC meeting and the expected first tightening of monetary policy in over 4 years...NYSE Adv/Dec 1965/1223, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1736/1219

[54anickel]

51. UPDATE 2-News Corp sinks as Australia bourse shift looms

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=5502848

CANBERRA, June 24 (Reuters) - Shares in Rupert Murdoch's News Corp (NCP.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) fell more than four percent on Thursday as Australian fund managers began selling up to A$15 billion ($10.3 billion) of the media group's stock ahead of an expected shift to the United States.

The drop came after Standard & Poor's said late on Wednesday News Corp could not be counted in both the main U.S. and Australian indices, dashing the Australian exchange's hopes it could keep its biggest listed firm from moving to America.

Convinced the company was certain to shift its main listing to the United States, some fund managers, who control more than 20 percent of New Corp's shares, opted to sell, sending the stock down 4.4 percent to A$12.58.

Analysts said the stock would remain under pressure ahead of a vote by investors in October on the change of domicile, with nearly all Australian fund managers likely to sell their stock to meet their investment guidelines.

more...

[54anickel]

52. Vote puts funds through wringer again

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1087373231242

Nine months after being hit by its worst scandal in 60 years, the US mutual fund industry has suffered a significant regulatory defeat that will see it forced to appoint independent chairmen to its boards.

The SEC yesterday voted by three to two to pass the first and most contentious of the 16 reform packages planned for the industry.

The plan to require independent chairmen was opposed by almost the entire industry, and was passed despite a last-minute lobbying push by industry heavyweights such as Fidelity.

An estimated 80 per cent of fund boards are chaired by fund executives or owners.

more...

[54anickel]

54. Norway oil workers face lockout

Norwegian employers threaten to shut almost all oil and gas output, pushing crude prices higher.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/06/24/news/international/norway_lockout.reut/

OSLO (Reuters) - A Norwegian oil strike escalated Thursday to threaten to shut down almost all oil and gas output, raising chances of government intervention to end the week-long dispute in the world's number three oil exporter.

Employers said they would lock out all workers from offshore platforms starting Monday, hoping that would encourage unions to back down after a strike already cutting 375,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Norway's 3.0 million bpd output.

"We see no other option for ending the dispute than to impose a lockout," said Per Terje Vold, director general of the employers' Norwegian Oil Industry Association on the seventh day of a strike over pensions and job security.

But unions refused to buckle and blasted the lockout threat as a high stakes gamble that the government would step in to end the strike. It said workers might shut output straight away.

more...

[54anickel]

55. The Perfect Real Estate Storm

http://realtytimes.com/rtapages/20040624_perfectstorm.htm

Rising consumer debt, rising interest rates, inflation, low job and wage growth and many other factors are swirling together to form a housing slowdown. But there a few other factors that are adding to the winds that could create the perfect storm - the largest housing recession in modern history.

Take a look at the storm conditions.

Top economists from Alan Greenspan to the National Association of Realtors researchers are telling the public that housing will "flatten," either in sales or prices, respectively. Flat housing prices and sales means that buyers are more at risk in their housing investments because homes will cost more in a rising rate environment, and their liquidity is effected when they can't sell as quickly or for as high a profit.

To a buying market that is used to jumping in and out of properties like daytraders do stocks, this is unwelcome news and a good reason to sit on the sidelines and wait for better conditions. And that's exactly what's happening in many markets across the country, particularly in areas that overheated in the mid-90s like Atlanta, Seattle, Dallas, Austin, and other techno-centers. Which markets are vulnerable next? Las Vegas, San Diego and other multiple-offer capitals that have attracted jobs because of housing, not residents because of jobs.

much more....

[54anickel]

56. Microsoft Gets Under Your Skin

http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/040623/1088017320_1.html

You can't argue that Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT - News) hasn't been a good contender for ubiquity. Today, it went one step closer, and maybe too close. The tech giant has secured the patent for technology that will allow human skin to conduct power and transmit data.
This story is just begging for lots of jokes and jabs. Microsoft's well-known monopolistic tendencies probably don't make this sound too appealing, when it comes to plugging yourself into devices using Microsoft technology. What about those Windows security holes -- you might wonder exactly what type of viruses you'd be exposed to. Here's a possible bumper sticker: Keep your code off our bodies! Then, of course, there's the old "Resistance is futile" joke, referring to Star Trek's Borg.

OK, back to the serious stuff. It's no surprise that Microsoft would want to expand its product line to wearable technology, and it's pretty well known that the company has been wanting to go there. The idea of using the body as a conductor is also not a new one.

In today's patent filing, Microsoft pointed to devices that are already "wearable" -- PDAs, cell phones, pagers, and so forth. Taking these into consideration, of course, there's a future for such portable technology that incorporates greater and less intrusive ease of use. That may not sound so futuristic at all, but then the filing goes on to say that a patch of our own skin could be used as a type of keyboard. That sounds, perhaps, creepier.

more...

[54anickel]

57. U.S. Market: The Great Shock Absorber (Nothing to worry about)

http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/040623/10167499_5.html

The markets are definitely nervous. Six months into 2004, the Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average are down on the year and the S&P 500 is slightly positive. Volume keeps petering out, and the daily ranges are hitting new record lows.

One reason given for this lack of exuberance is the threat of terrorism. If terrorists strike again on U.S. soil, nobody wants to be left holding the bag. With the Olympics and the U.S. elections coming up, the idea that al Qaeda might be planning something is seen as an overhang on global markets.

After Sept. 11, 2001, when the markets shut down for almost a week, nobody had any idea what would happen when they reopened. Heck, would they even be able to reopen? To his credit, Dick Grasso was able to organize the reopening of the New York Stock Exchange and instill confidence that business would continue as usual.

snip>

A Look at the Past
We've seen disaster before -- though not necessarily the specific psychological and financial damage caused by Sept. 11. However, the U.S. has nevertheless undergone shocks to the system in the past. We have survived and will continue to survive, thanks to gradual increases in the overall stability of the system.

With the help of my colleague Omid Malekan, I examined 10 potentially systemic shocks that have occurred over the past 70 years. In each case we looked at where the S&P 500 was the day before the shock, the day after and the panic low during the ensuing week, and then where the market was one week later, one month later and six months later. A summary table of the results appears at the end of this article.

First, let's go through each event and a corresponding chart of the S&P 500.

more...

[Maeve]

58. To be fair, our economy is so big it is very, very hard to sink

It will rebound short of a "Day After Tomorrow" scenerio or some such. HOWEVER--that doesn't mean it's easy to live thru a painful period or that people won't get very badly hurt. Just that America will survive. Small comfort when you're the one getting it in the neck...

[54anickel]

59. Very true Maeve, very true. n/t

[54anickel]

60. Closing numbers & yada

Dow 10,443.81 -35.76 (-0.34%)
Nasdaq 2,015.57 -5.41 (-0.27%)
S&P 500 1,140.65 -3.41 (-0.30%)
10-yr Bond 4.646% -0.052
30-yr Bond 5.338% -0.045

NYSE Volume 1,399,992,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,711,925,000

Close: The market has been directionless the past few weeks and today's activity as no exception...Mixed data this morning produced mixed results from the market...New home sales came in better than expected due to a drop in borrowing costs and lured a record number of homebuyers...As a result, homebuilding stocks took off early, but gave back much of the gains by mid-afternoon...A drop in durable good orders bid treasuries higher while undercutting an already lackluster manufacturing sector...
The market was just hesitant to move higher, despite yesterday's impressive end-of-day rally, as the recent terror attacks in Iraq/Turkey sparked safety plays...Treasuries closed strong while gold staged an impressive +2.02% rally and closed above the psychological $400.00 level...The Nasdaq slightly outperformed the blue chip averages while small and mid-caps shed the least...Post secondary education stocks were one of the day's worst industries following this morning's downgrade of Career Education (CECO, -3.08%) due to the recent negative headlines and investigations...

Crude oil prices closed slightly higher, posting gains of +0.96%, as supply concerns loomed over the ongoing oil worker strike in Norway and overall heightened concerns due to the rash of recent Middle East attacks...Telecommunication stocks under performed on overall weakness in AT&T (T, -8.71%) following last nights earnings warning and the slew of price cuts and downgrades that followed...NYSE Adv/Dec 1712/1580, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1627/1492



Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1695 (48%) 1627 (49%)
Declines 1596 (46%) 1492 (45%)
Unchanged 170 (4%) 154 (4%)

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Up Vol* 601 (42%) 749 (44%)
Down Vol* 780 (55%) 865 (51%)
Unch. Vol* 19 (1%) 75 (4%)

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New Hi's 205 127
New Lo's 23 30