Bush leads Kerry in new PD poll

[shawn703]

President Bush leads John Kerry by 6 percentage points in the battle for Ohio, a state that could decide who wins the White House, according to a statewide Plain Dealer poll.

Ohio voters surveyed say they favor Bush over Kerry, 47 percent to 41 percent. Consumer advocate Ralph Nader draws 3 percent, though he has yet to qualify for the Ohio ballot. Nine percent say they are undecided.


http://www.cleveland.com/election/index.ssf?/news/more/pd/05poll29.html


This doesn't seem right - anyone know if Plain Dealer polls are definitely biased?

[goforit]

1. This goes against the poll in Ohio 3 days ago with K=46% , B= 41%

[sweetladybug]

3. This doesn't sound right to me. I think Bush and his crime family

are playing mind games with all of us, but that's nothing new for them.
ELECT KERRY 2004!!!!

[0007]

38. I think we're getting right wing dreams from right wing sources

[coloradodem2005]

2. This is different from what I have been hearing.

[crossroads]

17. Me too...

A sis-in-law claims Kerry is ahead in the area she is from.(outside Cleveland)
:kick:

[buff2]

4. That poll is wrong.....it doesn't cover ALL of Ohio

It may be right in Cleveland,but not for the whole state of Ohio. It was just a few days ago a poll showed Kerry with a 7 point lead.Of course the ratwing repukes will try to prop that idiot up....they are desperate.

[eileen from OH]

18. Yeah, but the problem is that Cleveland

and the Northeast are probably the most liberal area of the state. That's the area where normally the Dems are waaaaay out ahead. It's the southwest - Cincy - and rural areas that are Republican strongholds. I'm hoping this was a fluke.

eileen from OH

[buff2]

48. I'm not buying into that poll

People are hurting here in Ohio....and everyone I talk to wants bu$h out. As always,it's the repukes trying to prop that miserable failure up. You would think people would get sick of it,since they've been doing it for far too long as it is. I didn't realize there were so many stupid people in this country until George the doofus came along. He brought out ALL the lunatics. It's really sad.

[WLKjr]

55. I don't buy it either

here in NW Ohio Bush is starting to not look good to ANYONE.

[acmavm]

5. I seriously doubt things have changed that much in the matter of a

couple of days. Ohio has been hit hard with job cuts. And recent surveys say that bush* is trailing Kerry. I mean, nothing has happened within the last couple of days that would make Kerry take a drop in the polls, whereas every time that bush* opens his mouth you can chalk up a few more lost votes.

Kerry gains more credibility everyday, whereas bush* loses more everyday. But the big test is coming. The new Iraqi leader is not going to go over well, IMO. He's known to be a CIA/MI6 man. I doubt that the Iraqi people will be very grateful to the guy who provided the justification for Blair to join the 'Coalition' and bomb the shit out of their country.

I'm waiting until after June 30th to see how things go. If all hell breaks loose and we are in deeper shit than we are now, there isn't a poll on this planet that will make me believe that bush* has the proverbial snow ball's chance in hell of being elected.

[jimshoes]

6. I 'd wager that poll is

a phony. I live in the Greater Cleveland area and the sentiment is that * is finished. People by a large margin wants his sorry butt out of office.

[MercutioATC]

9. Which 'burb, Jimshoes? I'm in Westlake.

[jimshoes]

31. Hi MercutioATC

Just down the street from Hopkins in Brook Park.

[MercutioATC]

33. You're close!

Lemme know if you want to grab a beer sometime.

[jimshoes]

50. Our band is playing (I'm pretty sure) in a couple of weeks

in Olmsted Twp. at the German Club. I'll post when I know for sure. I'm not sure which name we'll go by, either The Tree Lawns or Uncle Funkle.

[Old and In the Way]

7. How influential is Kucinich in Ohio?

Is the fact that he's still in the race affecting the polling #s?

[MercutioATC]

8. Doubtful. His popularity doesn't extend beyond NE Ohio.

The PD is the major Cleveland newspaper and Cleveland is more conservative than most of the rest of the state. The PD's bumbers sound about right for the Cleveland area to me.

[eileen from OH]

19. Whaaaa?

Cleveland and the Northeast are certainly not more conservative. Quite the contrary - lotta labor, lotta ethnic, pretty solidly Dem. The southwest - Cincy - is the conservative bastion.

eileen from Northeast OH

[Philostopher]

22. I'll back you up, Eileen.

And Dayton has Wright-Patterson AFB, which is a large contributor to both the culture and economy, so you can guess it's not much different from Cincy.

[MercutioATC]

35. I stand corrected on Cincy.

The PD poll still sounds about right to me...Bush by a few points.

Hey, I hope I'm wrong. With Taft's lousy Governorship, there are a lot of people becoming disenchanted with Republicans in Ohio.

[LizW]

36. Hey, Eileen

What has the Bush/Repug advertising been like in Ohio lately? Have they been focusing there? Has it been negative?

That's the only explaination I can think of that poll numbers would move this much, and I'm not even sure that would do it. If there hasn't been some sort of negative ad blitz against Kerry, then I'm prone to dismiss this poll as a fluke.

[eileen from OH]

37. I don't watch that much tv and channel surf

during commercials when I do, but I've seen some ads for both. The really GOOD news (and I've been meaning to post something about this) is that Kerry now has real, live campaign staff here to work with the OH Dem party. Our regional director is Laurie DePaulo and she's hit the ground running.

I really think the PD thing has got to be a fluke. The only other thing I can think of is that Bush and/or Cheney are here so often they should be crapping Buckeyes. All those visits may have some effect.

eileen from OH

[Lorien]

52. Cleveland is the LEAST conservative part of Ohio

I grew up in Ohio and my father was raised in Cleveland. Some of my best friends are still in Cleveland and Richmond heights. Look at all the elections for the past 30 years, and you'll see that Northeast Ohio is BY FAR the most liberal area of Ohio (only the tiny areas of Athens and Yellow Springs are more Liberal)!

[Ironpost]

10. let me say this

This sounds like bushshit to me. My son and his friends are recent graduates from H.S. and in our conversations I have learned they will not be voting for 'schrub' and company. I'm amazed at the level of the distaste this future generation has for war first, lies first, reasons last... there is HOPE

[Media_Lies_Daily]

11. "Plain Dealer" poll? Gee, I never would have guessed....

...that they would say their poll has Junior running ahead of Kerry.

Right. And pigs fly out of LAX on regularly scheduled flights.

[still_one]

12. Who in the hell is Plain Dealer?

Zogby says otherwise...

[monkeymind]

13. polls lie (when it doesn't reinforce our opinions)

Maybe Kerry should move EVEN FURTHER to the right just in case!

[Merlin]

14. Went to HS with the VP of the PD. He's definitely a right wing suck up

We've got this little thing going for our 5-year reunions. The group separates into Republicans and Democrats. The Repubs never say a single word to the Dems. How lovely. Our class had only 60 people in it. The PD VP is one of the prime movers in the shunning. I'm so glad I left that town many years ago.

[Teaser]

15. sometimes you get outliers

bound to happen with polls. Likely this is one.

[King of New Orleans]

16. The poll was done by Mason-Dixon

which is a firm that I don't think is particularly good. But all the polls at this point should be taken qith several grains of salt good or bad.

[GingerSnaps]

20. Do they have diebold machines in OH?

Something is up with this poll and it isn't kosher.

[Philostopher]

21. They make Diebold machines in Canton, Ohio. n/t

[GingerSnaps]

23. The right wingers might be trying to pull off stealing Ohio votes

We need to watch the "Red States" closely for another theft of the Presidency.

[Kukesa]

39. Nine counties MAY use Diebold machines.

According to an article in today's "Dayton Daily News."

Link:

http://www.daytondailynews.com/localnews/content/localnews/daily/0530voting.html

[Norquist Nemesis]

24. The poll is pure party-line talking points

right down to "the appeasers". I'd be interested in seeing the question(s) asked and the demographics of the 1500 polled. It appears to have a bias error in data collection...and the paper has an obvious bias as well. Just look at the average Joe they quoted: a retired General Electric marketing manager. The Bush campaign spokesman wasn't even willing to give it credibility.

[DaveSZ]

25. It's funny

how we bellittle the poll when it doesn't go our way.

[Norquist Nemesis]

27. It's laughable

that people look at polls at all. It's the people that rarely watch them, then make an uninformed decision partly based on what everyone else thinks (i.e. polls).

I want to see the same information with all polls. (period) The questions and demographics of the sample are always relevent. My beef stems from the bias of the article more than the poll.

According to the article, the poll still goes "our way" with specifics such as the economy, the war, etc. Then it quotes people that are in line with the headline. It wraps the reasoning up in a tidy little package of "those who say they favor him cite his moral character and his stewardship over the war on terrorism and homeland security as reasons." Is that not the party line?

[The_Casual_Observer]

26. This is impossible

There isn't a way that this could be true.

[GalleryGod]

28. We ALL know how the PD has distinguished itself down through the years

:argh: Enema device for the Right.

[dbt]

29. I choose to believe ONE poll (aside from Election Day*)

And that would be Zogby. Dunno what they have to say about Ohio, but it would be as close to the truth as you could get.

* In recent years, the Election Day poll has unfortunately become subject to "errors."

:freak:
dbt

[kevin881]

49. Yes, Zogby has been the most accurate in the last few elections.

In 2000 he correctly predicted the outcome in 49 of 50 states... the only one he was wrong on, is the one that was stolen by Jeb.

[fujiyama]

30. This is the first poll

I've seen in a long time that has had Bush ahead in OH.

I wouldn't be surprised if Bush was ahead by 1 or 2 points...Maybe 3, but it would be probably be in the margin of error.

I seriously doubt he'd be up by 6 points. That's more than he won the state by in '00, and well Bush hasn't really gained many votes in any state in the past several years.

Also Mason Dixon had a poll with Bush leading Kerry by 8 points or so in FL a while back. It was dismissed soon after, because no other poll corresponded.

[llmart]

32. For those of you not familiar with the PD...

It's a RW rag! It ranks right up there with the Wall Street Journal. My sister lives in Lakewood outside of Cleveland and she said all the shop owners throughout Lakewood have Kerry signs displayed and she sees Kerry bumper stickers everywhere.

[Merlin]

41. Ahhh, Lakewood. Dennis Kucinich's home base.

My wonderful Irish grandmother, rest her soul, organized breakfast sessions at a diner on Detroit in Lakewood with 5 other friends and Dennis every Wed morning back in the days when he was a councilman running for mayor.

Cleveland used to be a great Democratic town. Labor unions used to literally teach the Joe Sixpacks of that era how the system works and how they get royally screwed by the Republicans.

There is nobody around these days to bring Joe to enlightenment. Things have to get so bad even stupid white guys can figure it out.

[kori]

34. To know if a poll is accurate you need to know two things

What questions were asked and who did they ask. This is from the article linked in the original message:

..... The poll, conducted May 20-25 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, is based on interviews with 1,500 registered voters who plan to vote in November. The poll, which has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points, is the largest presidential poll taken in Ohio this year.......

As you see from the article, the key here is 1,500 registered voters. That means they are using a calling list from the registered voter list. It does not say if this was registered voters from the last mid term election or the last Presidential election. I assume the last mid term election, if it is currently available in Ohio. If that is the case there were a lot of Dems that stayed home in the last election. Secondly that means they are calling more stable homes, in other words people that have not moved since the last election. There are inherent biases toward republicans in that voter list. The polling operation will say it is more accurate because it is only polling people with a history of voting, and who plan and probably will vote again.

Dems love to talk, but history shows Republicans go to the polls, Dems will go if its convenient. It is our duty to make certain Dems think it is not only convenient this year, but extremely necessary. Just like the Republican preachers will do.

[Zynx]

40. State polls jump around a lot.

This is well within the margin of state poll variance.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

42. Plain-Dealer

While I disagree with the results of their poll (not knowing the methods, I don't know how they arrived at the numbers), I have to also disagree with the opinions voiced here that the P-D is a "right wing rag." Living in Cincinnati with a genuinely Pro-Republican newspaper (they simply refuse to report unflattering details about the Taft Administration), believe me that I rely on the Plain-Dealer and other Ohio newspapers online to get a feel for what's going on in the state.

Their reporting in genuinely fair -- if for no other reason than that they don't sweep major stories under the rug. Everything I know about Joe Deters' $50,000 money-laundering scheme is through reporting from the Plain-Dealer (and others). Everything I know about Larry Householder's multiple ethics challenges comes from other sources. Everything I know about the school commission, the turnpike commission and the pension trustees taking illegal gifts comes from Cleveland, Dayton, Akron, and Toledo.

Give the P-D a break. They're not that bad.

[OzarkDem]

43. PD a right wing rag

They're one of the most right wing, deceitful newspapers in the country. They're just really good at hiding it.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

47. I'm telling you...

you don't know a right-wing rag until you read the Cincinnati Enquirer. I often refer to it as the "Daily Newsletter of the Hamilton County Republican Party." I only read the Plain-Dealer online, so maybe there's content that I'm missing, but I find what I'm getting from the P-D to be a godsend -- and an embarrassment to the so-called journalists in Cincinnati.

[Barkley]

45. I hear ya!

I grew up in Cincinnati and live in L.A. My parents still live there and I teach economics at NKU every summer.

I just don't remember growing up in the 70s Cincinnati being so conservative: e.g. "Ronald Reagan Freeway", Title XII, Police abuses and of course the news.

Your local Fox station is so much worse than L.A.!

What happened?


-Purcell '76

[OzarkDem]

44. PD pulled the same trick in 2000

Running bogus Mason Dixon poll results a month before the election, showing Bush ahead of Gore by double digits. In house polls showed the race was within margin of error.

Back then it worked, it spooked the Gore campaign and convinced them to pull out of Ohio. At the time, I called Editor Brent Larkin and asked him about the bogus Mason Dixon numbers, telling him the poll numbers the Gore campaign had were very different and showed Ohio was still in play. He laughed and basically said, "So what. Why don't you call me the day after the election and we'll see whose candidate won?" He was basically saying they would do whatever it took to win.

Unfortunately, the ploy worked back then, and the Gore campaign pulled out. It won't happen with the Kerry campaign.

The fact that the Plain Dealer is pulling this trick out of their bag so early in the game shows how truly desperate the situation is for Bush in Ohio.

IMHO, this is very good news for Kerry.

[Imperialism Inc.]

46. Well I hope this is B.S. and the other poll is correct.

I'm in Ohio. I've registered 6 new Kerry voters (first time voters) amoung my family and friends. There is an office of about 25 people for whom I created an intranet web portal with lots of left leaning sources for their "news" section. My understanding is everyone who gives a shit is going for Kerry there.

Still work to do though it seems.

[kori]

53. You are the first person on this thread that seems to get it

Regardless if the PD is a right wing rag, regardless of what Poll says what. This poll by mason-dixon is accurate for what exactly it says it is. I repeat, it was taken from a list of registered voters who say they will definitely vote, not probably, not maybe, not if they figure out how to get registered. It is accurate and will reflect the outcome unless more people stop worrying about right wing rags and actually get people registered and voting. Otherwise this is an accurate poll. Keep up the good work, get them registered and make them go to the polls, we need Hundreds of Thousands more just like you across the country. We can not trust this to be a close election again.

PS to any greens leaning toward Nader. Did you notice what Rummy said this week? We are closer to the start of this generational war rather than the end. Still think there is no difference between Kerry and Bush? Think Syria maybe Iran next, think draft again, these people HAVE to go no matter what other differences you have with the Democratic candidate.

[Lorien]

51. PD leans left of other major Ohio papers

Northeast Ohio traditionally is more liberal than the rest of the state.

[OzarkDem]

54. NE Ohio is Dem

but the Plain Dealer is not left leaning, or anywhere close to it.

The example I always like to give is, how often have you ever seen an editorial cartoon or even an editorial critical of George Voinovich?

PD is expert at giving the appearance of being unbiased while lying their a**es off.

[Beaker]

56. Kerry cannot win. We'd better have a better candidate come November

a big portion of the votes he gets will be more about people voting against Bush, than for Kerry.

Based on how the people view Iraq, and where the economy isn't Kerry should be miles ahead of Bush, but as it is, we're arguing over 1-2 % points difference between the two.

if Kerry is the candidate, the election will once again be close enough to steal through another non-violent coupd'etat, if the lil'dictator doesn't win it outright.

[kori]

57. And you propose what???

Voting against Bush happens to have the same effect as voting FOR Kerry, unless of course you waste your time pulling a lever for Nader trying to make some statement that 96% of voters could care less about. Kerry is the choice, there is no other and it is time we start working very very hard. I do not care if you are working to beat Bush or to elect Kerry as long as the outcome is Bush is gone and Kerry is in the White House.

[Beaker]

58. people are less likely to go to the polls to vote against someone

than they are to go to the polls to vote for someone, especially someone who excites them.

kerry don't excite nobody...

i'm willing to bet that kkkarl rove has been sleeping pretty soundly lately.

[kori]

60. I am not sure who you are quoting in your opening line

And I do apologize up front. For some reason I am in a rotten mood today and this thread tripped my trigger. I read every response to this original message. I usually do not, and most of the posts were whining and complaining about biased polls and biased newspapers and only a few posts of substance.

Now back to my rotten mood, I am afraid you are wrong. People go to the polls for two reasons, because it is a duty or out of passion. I am excluding another BIG voting block (the voting block our passion can effect) of those who are literally dragged to the polls by someone who is working out of duty or passion.

Republicans routinely vote out of duty, they go for God and country (at least a significant percentage). It doesn't really matter who is on the ticket. Democrats are different, we are best when there is passion. That passion can be positive for a candidate or negative for an opponent. History is replete with bums thrown out of office regardless of who is running against them. Thats the point I was trying to make earlier. We must stay focused, united, and PASSIONATE. We can not afford to splinter, we can not afford to whine, we can not afford to become apathetic, we can not afford to be negative. We must work hard, we must drag everyone we can, there have been fewer elections in our lifetime more important than this one. We do not need defeatism. I guarantee Rove is not sleeping soundly. In fact I suspect he is on the verge of panic almost every day.

Now again what other option did you offer?

[Beaker]

61. my, THE, point is that Kerry does not inspire passion in anyone...

i sure don't feel any...and nobody i talk to feels any...and that's the point.

if people were passionate, kerry would be up by double digits at this point.

he ain't.

[kori]

62. I am sorry, you miss THE point

and I am still waiting for you to announce your alternative. If you are not passionate about the l'il dictator or the coup, or whatever you called bush and the last election, then why are you here? I guess you are right it could be something other than passion, it could be nothing better to do. Only other explanation I can think of.

[Beaker]

63. to be honest, i don't know what the best alternative is-

in the primaries, I liked what Wes Clark was saying, but I was never too enamoured with Dr. Dean. At one point I might have considered Al Gore, for a rematch of 2000, but I know now that that would be even more disasterous than Kerry. and I would never consider Hillary! for either spot on the ticket.

one of the problems with being the Democratic nominee is that they seem to feel the need to be all things to all people under the "big tent". the repukes don't have near as many factions to appease, so their 'message' is always going to be more clearly defined, and therefore easier for a big part of the electorate to comprehend, which in turn makes them easier to manipulate with distortions and outright lies; especially when delivered with a rousing patriotic fervor and/or comforting images, and easily remembered, but ultimately meaningless soundbites.

another problem between the big tent and "the message" is that the candidate and his ever-growing staff of handlers ultimately decide that one of the best ways to keep everyone happy is to try hard not to offend anyone, which ultimately leads to a seemingly milquetoast candidate running a decidedly biege campaign.
in order to overcome the obstacles inherent in the Democratic campaign and win the hearts and votes of the electorate, a candidate needs to have "personality-plus+". and in case you haven't noticed, Kerry doesn't (Bill Clinton obviously did).
and to be honest- I'm not sure who does. what I do know, is that with the way all aspects of American life is going right now, the Democratic nominee should be w-a-a-a-a-a-y ahead of the lil'dictator at this point, and the fact that Kerry isn't does not bode well for our side.

[Geo55]

59. Somebody stop me before I....

"Though Bush is given low marks for his handling of the economy and the war in Iraq, those who say they favor him cite his moral character and his stewardship over the war on terrorism and homeland security as reasons."
<snip>

Just another stroll through the ol' insane asylum...