New Gallup Poll: Kerry 47% Bush 47%

[Zynx]

<snip>Bush is now in a dead heat with Kerry in Gallup's trial heat ballot. In the two-way ballot, Kerry receives 49% support among likely voters, Bush 48%. When independent Ralph Nader is included in the ballot, Bush and Kerry each receive 47%, while Nader receives 3%.

</snip>

There are other significant findings as well in here.

http://gallup.com/content/?ci=11602

[osaMABUSh]

1. If Gallup has it tied - I think we are OK; 62% dissatisfied - wow

"poll finds 36% of Americans satisfied with the way things are going in the United States, while 62% are dissatisfied."

[tom_paine]

26. Exactly. Gallup is Utter Bushevik Propaganda

They must have infiltrated and parasitized them long ago. They must have Bushevik Loyalists in most of the positions there and they control the company.

Curious DU Researchers: Run a check of the Company Officers and their Campaign Contributors. Without even looking, I can tell you what their leanings are.

But go ahead if you wish and find out the certain truth.

You are correct, if Gallup is presenting a dead heat tie, that means they have gone as low as they reasonably can and can go no lower.

I've been noticing this Pravda Trend. In order to sell the Upcoming Election Theft, they have Bushevik People a number of organizations, most notably AP and Gallup I surmise. Thus, if a spate of polls showing Kerry with a lead appear, you can bet your ass that one of the Bushevik Pravda Organizations is going to come out with their "Bush Leads" poll (or in this case, things have gotten so bad it's the Rock Bottom "Bush Tied" polls).

This is good news! It means that the actual numbers could be ANYTHING if Gallup is forced to the lowest possible permitted Pravda of "Bush Tied".

We are winning, people. The Moderates are joining us and waking up.

Uncle Karl is going to have to steal or suppress great numbers of votes to "win".

We just might have them beaten.

[Hepburn]

29. Kerry, 47% and Bush, 43% on today's Rasmussen poll.

"Kerry has now held a three-point edge for three straight days. Neither candidate has held a three-point advantage for four consecutive days since Kerry emerged as the Democratic frontrunner.

When one candidate holds a 'lead' in the tracking poll that vanishes after three days, it suggests that a single night of tracking was especially favorable to that candidate. If a candidate, in this case Kerry, is able to hold a lead for more than three days, it could signify a trend."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

So I am waiting to see what their next poll shows. Hopefully, Kerry will maintain his 3-point lead!

[fujiyama]

44. Hopefully he'll increase it

I hope it goes up atleast a point a day, until Bush ends up where he should -- right around 1%!

[muchacho]

2. Astoinding

I'm really amazed that with this daily revaluation of evil deeds parading around there is this high a percentage still willing to risk four more years.

Astoinding....

[Kahuna]

9. I think the reason that bush is polling that high is because...

1. Voters are unsold on Kerry (that's pretty obvious) because they don't know who he is and what he offers.

2. Dittohead talking points against Kerry are making some voters hesitant. Which in my mind means that Team Kerry needs to address the Dittohead smears.

[noonwitch]

15. I think Kerry needs to address the Vietnam issue one more final time

He needs to say, "I served, I earned medals and decorations, and if 5 or 6 people who served when I did still dislike me for some stupid reason almost 40 years later, they obviously are people who either have a political agenda or mental health problems". He fell for the trap by getting defensive about all this to begin with.

It's early, too. It looks like Bush is finally in meltdown mode.

[PATRICK]

55. That is crushing good news

as long as Kerry runs a strong campaign when attention turns to him completely. There is a huge lean away from Bush. When it moves over look out.

We still have the problem with the media, and alas the population(and leadership) in general constantly and naively or dishonestly avoiduing the obvious truth.

That becomes less and less possible without madness.

[keithyboy]

14. The Dems may have a chance. With all the money, the press, and the

government under the control of the neocons, and a war raging and Kerry could even be within 5 points of Bush is amazing to me.

[No Mandate Here.]

3. Was this poll taken before the detainee scandal? n/t

[Eurobabe]

8. sez polled 5/2-5/4

[belle]

49. Just breaking, then. It gets worse from here on out, i think.

[lebkuchen]

4. What an embarrassment for America

[Maestro]

5. The only problem is the Nader factor.

When Nader is factored in, Kerry loses points.

[Snellius]

10. A lot of the Nader vote is a vote of protest

People are more likely to vote their gut rather than their judgment in these polls because they know it's only a poll and will not really count. The worst case scenario would be if Kerry were way ahead in the polls and Naderites actually voted for Nader thinking that Bush could never win. At it is, the closer these polls are, the worse Nader will do when it really gets down to it.

[rman]

30. it takes just a few of those votes to tip the balance

in favor of Bush

Isn't it kinda odd that the electorate is split almost exactly down the middle, for a few decades now?
Thus it takes just a little manipulation of votes, one way or another, to fix the outcome of an election. A little bit of manipulation is easier to cover up then a lot of manipulation.

[4_Legs_Good]

38. Remember Nader was polling like 5% in 2000

and came in at less than 2.5%. A lot of the Nader vote evaporates, when things get close. I'm not worried about it at the moment.

Let's just hope that the Democrats reach out to Nader rather than bashing him. Nothing makes him (or his supporters) more resolute than people telling him not to run.

david

[John_H]

54. It's time to get the truth out about nader

Man, the dems could destroy him with a bout five mil in ad buys and a half decent pr push. I'm afraid they think he can be reasoned with. He's already PUBLICLY stated his megalomaniacal agenda--making things so bad with bush that he profits from the resulting backlash.

They ought to stomp Ralph now, point out to his "protest voters" that their protest vote is going to a guy who symbolizes everything that they're protesting. Ralph would be down to a percent or less in a week.

[Guy_Montag]

6. What about right wing indies?

Did Pat Buchanan not stand one year?

Will they take any votes from Bush?

[Moloch]

47. Buchanan got less than 0.5% in 2000

Probably because most of his base (Racist right-wing conservatives) didn't like his choice of a Black woman as his running mate..

[BeatleBoot]

7. Notice the "Purple States" Graph?

This is fantastic news for Kerry!

Those are the electoral votes to win!

[Shopaholic]

11. It is imperative that Nader come off his ego trip

and drop out immediately-it's the only way we can win

[Kolesar]

19. maybe it's time for Dennis to drop out and endorse Kerry

Dennis' message might resonate with those on the left. This is coming from a DUer who voted for Dennis Kucinich in March.

[w4rma]

31. As long as Kucinich is in the primary, his Green supporters aren't

campaigning for Nader.

I hope Kucinich stays in until the last moment. Kucinich will support Kerry in the general. Nader will run against Kerry in the general.

[belle]

50. Yeah, i don't think Kucinich is doing Kerry any harm at this point.

[ramapo]

12. Scary

It never ceases to astound me that so many people can be satisified with such a mediocre excuse for a president.

[snippy]

13. It really is astounding that more people are not convinced

that Bush needs to be fired regardless of who his successor will be.

FIRE THE LIAR

[robbedvoter]

17. Well put. That being said, Gallup? We trust them because?

This is all PR for Diebold. It has "2000 - get used to it" all over it. LIES!

[peekaloo]

16. But, but, but Tiny Tim Russert assured 'Today' show viewers

that Boo$h still has a "winnable" lead and he's doing a gggrrrrrreat job according to 'Murcan faithful.


Good larf this a.m. in a central Fl. paper phone poll. One of Dim Son's followers stated he was going to vote for Boo$h AGAIN and anybody with half a brain would do the same! Bwahahahaha.

[robbedvoter]

18. Ha!ha! The half brain vote all sewn up, eh?

[Stuckinthebush]

20. This is good news...

-Democratic voters are usually under polled in presidential polls, so the spread is probably higher.

-From an historical perspective, Bush can not win with such high negatives and such low approval ratings.

-50,000,000 more voters voted for Al Gore than Bush. Very few if any of those votes will be transfered to Bush this time. Much of the moderate votes will transfer from Bush to Kerry this time.

-More new voters have come of age during the past 3 years than old voters who have died (assumption). Young voters will move toward Kerry with worries over draft and war.

-Dem voters are energized. GOP voters are more likely to forgo voting because of apathy or disgust with the president.

-While Nader looks like a factor, he will not get 1/2 of what he pulled in 2000. Too many people see what is at stake. They may tell pollsters that they will vote for Nader, but when they get in the booth, they will vote for Kerry.

-Military and veterans are more likely than in 2000 to vote for the Dem. There will be no 2000 military/veteran who voted for Gore changing his/her vote to Bush this time.

-Zogby - one of the only pollsters to get the 2000 election right, consistently has shown Kerry ahead (I'm working from memory on this one so correct me if I'm wrong).

-Senate and House races are looking good for Dems. This will help with the Dem presidential vote as well.

-Media exposure has become increasingly more negative toward the administration and Iraq. This helps Dems.

-Fundamentalist Christians have become emboldened and are showing their hands. Moderate GOP voters are unnerved by the fundamentalist X-tian influence and will likely not vote or vote for Kerry.

-Money is flowing in to the Kerry campaign from grass roots efforts unlike any in the past. This indicates that the Dem base is energized and ready for a fight.

Folks, we are in a very good spot right now. Kerry needs to swat away personal attack after personal attack and bring the conversation back to the state of the country and the world under Bush. We still have a number of months until the election, so it is best if Kerry paces himself - which I think he is doing. This is Kerry's election to lose - assuming no BBV shenanigans. We are going to win in November, don't lose hope.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

21. Absolutely! nt

[lancdem]

23. Great post!

:thumbsup:

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

24. Let's not forget...

America Coming Together and other organizations that are out there registering new Democratic Voters (and tracking them to make sure they get to the polls). They plan to have several millions of new voters registered in the Battleground States -- none of whom currently show up in polls of "Likely Voters."

[DemMother]

28. And undecideds usually break against the incumbent...

I think it's by as much as two-thirds against.

[vickie]

32. This is Fantastic News!!!

My day is off to a very good start!!!

[MisterP]

48. the Green Party won't put up much of a campaign, I think,

it was only after a noisy debate that they barely voted to not officially direct their votes to the Dems late in 2003, and quite a few will vote for Kerry due to the the combination of winnability, compatibility, and that * might win this time w/o their support to Kerry.
Also, most of the Nader votes were actually for the Green Party.

[joefree1]

22. Nice steady climb in the polls

These are votes that won't change as Kerry overtakes Bush.

[Claire Beth]

25. low rating for a sitting president! n/t

[David__77]

27. Bush has been stagnant for spending so much money.

This was the time he was supposed to establish his sense of "inevitability." If I were a Republicans, I would be pretty nervous.

[Gingersnapsback]

33. Kerry is better to be down in the polls

because when he is winning they are more inspired to find more lies and myths. Look what happened in the primaries. No one was sure he would come in 3rd. We need to concentrate on getting our votes counted and he will win.

[David__77]

36. I'm comfortable with a tie at this point, or a slight deficit.

It's more important that Kerry solidify his support at this point. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, I think that CAN be on the basis more of "anti-Bushness" than "pro-Kerryness." That's not a problem. Bush Sr. did not win in '88 because he was loved, he won because Dukakis was demonized--remember Horton? So, Kerry can win mainly on strength of anti-Bush sentiment so long as he seems "presidential."

[cally]

34. Kerry leads in swing states!--48 to 44

But in the "purple" or battleground states, where Gore or Bush won in 2000 by five percentage points or less, Kerry leads Bush among likely voters by 48% to 44%. This marks a change from Gallup's last poll in which the two candidates were tied at 49% each in these states.

:bounce: :-)

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

35. Where's the map

I've been trying to find the latest "purple states" map, but can't find it -- Have a link?

[cally]

37. I don't have a map

I got the quote from the Gallop site in the article linked above. It was pretty far down the page.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

43. Found it

But somewhere there's a map that shows the 2000 Election results as a map with Red, Blue, and (varying) shades of Purple. I thought maybe somebody had updated it to reflect the most recent polling.

[4_Legs_Good]

39. Ooooh, this is looking up! Now when are we going to get a VP???

It still seems to me that NOW would be a good time for a dynamic, charismatic VP nominee to enter the stage. That'll push Kerry back up, then he gets another boost next month at the convention, and then more in the debates.

We're in good shape, I think, we just gotta start getting Kerry's numbers up, rather than *just* knocking George Jr.'s down.

david

[CheshireCat]

40. VP choice will win it or lose it for Kerry

I think the right VP pick for Kerry will make a big difference. John Edwards would help him. Bob Graham could win Florida for him.

What are your thoughts on the VP pick???

[4_Legs_Good]

41. I agree that the VP is critical...

As I see it, like it or not, Kerry needs a charisma boost. I think Edwards is the best pick because he can get out there and get people riled up. Choosing someone boring, yet competent would not help, and I don't know that Kerry can win this on his own. Gephardt or Clark are fully competent, but do they have the Charisma? I've always found Gephardt boring, and Clark isn't far behind.

I think I'd be interested to see Powell as Kerry's VP. Heh heh heh.

david

[ElementaryPenguin]

45. I think Clark is very charismatic.

And presidential.

[ElementaryPenguin]

46. I think Clark is very charismatic.

And presidential.

[goforit]

52. How about Jon Stewart...........LOL!!!

[wabeewoman]

Anyone know how many state

Nader will actually be on the ballot on? I had heard he was having trouble getting enough signatures to be on the ballot...Now if Roy Moore will run against bush....

[wabeewoman]

42. Anyone know how many state

Nader will actually be on the ballot on? I had heard he was having trouble getting enough signatures to be on the ballot...Now if Roy Moore will run against bush....

[flaminbats]

51. Now the challenge facing Kerry is to prove he isn't Bushlite...

that he is not running to merely be less of a failure than the current Administration.

[John_H]

53. I said it when we were down, I'll say it now. We'll only win if...

we get out our swing state vote at numbers that make the elevtion too decisive for them to steal, about 3 percent. These polls don't mean shit, except that most people have made up their minds and that swing voters very slightly favor Kerry right now (since they usually favor rethugs by a pretty good margin)

[bvar22]

56. The Corporate run polls....

...need to keep the race close so that Diebold can work its magic.

[CreekDog]

57. I like Dick Durbin D-IL as a VP choice

He's well-spoken, folksy, rural, stands up for farmers, for the little guys, the poor, etc.

He's a liberal, but he uses the language of a populist.

What does everybody think?

[murielm99]

59. He's my senator.

We need him right where he is!

He has seniority in the senate, and is on important committees.

If Kerry can keep it from being stolen, he will need strong people in the Senate to help him.

[The_Casual_Observer]

58. If Gallup says even, then it's Kerry by at least 10 points