More seek unemployment aid, but trend is positive

[No Elephants]

Source: AP

More seek unemployment aid, but trend is positive

WASHINGTON (AP) - The number of people seeking unemployment benefits rose last week to a seasonally adjusted 377,000, up from a nearly four-year low the previous week. But the longer-term trend is pointing to a healthier job market. Applications have trended down over the past few months. The four week average has declined to 377,500. When applications fall consistently below 375,000, it tends to signal that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.

Read more: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/fronts/HOME?SITE=AP

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And here is the same paragraph, but with some of its "weasel words" and general fudging in boldface.

More seek unemployment aid, but trend is positive

WASHINGTON (AP) - The number of people seeking unemployment benefits rose last week to a seasonally adjusted 377,000, up from a nearly four-year low the previous week. But the longer-term trend is pointing to a healthier job market. Applications have trended down over the past few months. The four week average has declined to 377,500. When applications fall consistently below 375,000, it tends to signal that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.

(Note: a four week average (of the seasonally-adjusted figures?) hitting 377,500 does not equal applications consistently falling below 375,000. Even if did mean the same, "tending to signal" says a lot of nothing.


We need a graphic of a red, white and blue sign that takes off from the familiar "Men at Work" sign to say "Spinmeisters at Work."

Meanwhile, remember, we've been blatantly in trouble since the summer of 2008 and these figures are for new applications.

I have no idea know how many years of massive job losses it take before new applications for unemployment benerits just naturally start decreasing, even if actual overall unemployment is not decreasing correspondingly.

Remember as well, we changed our way of calculating joblessness after the Great Depression. If we calculated now the same way we did then, unemployment announcements would seem much more dire than they do now. (No wonder the Executive Branch--not Obama's, btw-- wanted to change the method of calculation.)

IOW, I have no idea what this news story actually means in real time.

Nonetheless, it is cause for great celebration. (mild sarcasm)

[No Elephants]

1. Interesting juxtaposition to unemployment being up--the DOW is up, too.

Dow approaches highest level since 2008 crisis

The Dow Jones industrial average was trading near its highest close since the 2008 financial crisis Thursday after solid news on factory orders and strong earnings from U.S. manufacturers highlighted the economy's growing momentum. Broader market indexes edged lower, though they have surged this year, too. Traders appear less afraid of spillover damage from the European debt crisis, and data on jobs and manufacturing have been consistently strong.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/fronts/HOME?SITE=AP

Funny how that works, isn't it? (Not "funny ha ha" either.)