Liberals risk minority status, poll shows - Environics Cdn Poll

[Screaming Lord Byron]

Liberals - 39%
CPC - 29%
NDP - 19%
Bloc 11%

http://erg.environics.net/news/default.asp?aID=549

Good news for the NDP and, to a lesser extent the Liberals I would say.

[bemildred]

1. It must be nice to have political choices. nt

[Screaming Lord Byron]

2. And to have a right-wing party outnumbered 70-30 by the left and centre.

[bemildred]

6. I expect that result has a lot to do with having choices.

We'll see how the third parties do this time around. It seems
clear we aren't going to get to cast an anti-war vote unless we
risk re-electing Shrub, which is how they rig the system. Reminds
me of 1968 and Humphrey "running" against Nixon after they
managed to sidetrack McCarthy and the anti-war movement of that
day. You have McCarthy = Dean, Shrub = Nixon, and Kerry = Humphrey
and the match is pretty good.

[Gman]

8. You disregard the fact that the RW killed Bobby

in 1968. He would have beat Nixon hands down. If you're implying some kind of a conspiracy to not let anyone vote on the war then blame the RW for killing Bobby.

[bemildred]

9. There ain't no "Bobby" this year.

The comparison only goes as far as the three guys I mentioned.
I thought about '72, but Kerry doesn't match up with McGovern at
all, much as the Repubs might like to pretend so.

[DemsAreBack]

22. Bobby was running in Canada?

When was this?

[Screaming Lord Byron]

23. That's the great thing about a threadjacking.

You can never be sure what bizarre turns it'll take. It's art!

[American Renaissance]

3. the numbers don't mean too much

The conservatives always poll highly prior to an election, but always shit themselves in the campaign.

Stephen Harper is a complete crank, he also has a totally abbraisve personality.

Last election, when they ran a freak named Stockwell Day, they polled veryy highly, till it came out that Stockwell Day is a Flat Earth creationist.

Stephen Harper also supports the war in Iraq and would send Canadian troops to Iraq, that will be REAL popular.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

7. Actually, this is a good poll.

If the CPC can't top the Liberals now, when can they ever?

[JohnOneillsMemory]

13. Great sig. quote. I see eugenics everywhere these days.

It's my vocabulary word for the century to go along with 'fascism' and 'Dominionism.'

[Spazito]

26. Exactly!

I suspect the Liberals will get a bare minimum majority when it is all said and done. I have been watching the hearings on the sponsorship scandal and the partisanship on all sides has been ridiculous. The Alliance (faux Conservative) Party will not get many more votes than they did before the takeover, imo.

[Minstrel Boy]

27. Conservative support is down, I think, 12%

from the aggregate of the PC and Alliance vote in 2000. The "united right" process was a joke - a hostile takeover by the far right - and moderate PCers aren't taken in.

[LeftCoast]

4. How is it that Canada has so many parties?

Don't you guys have a 1st-past-the-post electoral system? You're not proportional rep. are you??

[Screaming Lord Byron]

5. We used to have more. It's strictly first past the post (for now)

We have -
Conservatives (Right)
Liberals (Centre)
Bloc Quebecois (Centre-Left, Quebec Nationalist)
New Democrats (Left)
Greens (?)

We had, until last year Progressive Conservatives, some of whom still remain unofficially

These are the main parties, any how. All the above except Greens are represented in Parliament.

[LeftCoast]

10. So these parties must have pockets of regional strength?

I was always taught that a 1stPP electoral system eventually forced a system with two big centrist parties.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

11. The CPC is essentially Western and the BQ Quebec based.

The Greens have more strength in BC, Liberals and NDP are more evenly spread across Canada.

[LeftCoast]

12. Thanks for the ongoing lessons on Canadian politics!

They are much appreciated!

:hi:

[Minstrel Boy]

14. I trust Environics most of all.

Ipsos Reid, I believe, is paid by the Green Party to include it as an option, artificially inflating its support. "Other," here, is down to 3%. Where I would expect it.

Regional breakdown:

[Screaming Lord Byron]

16. We're getting close to a repeat of 1988 in BC, and the GTA figures

are deadly. The Liberals are haemoraging (can never spell that work).
Insider tip I received recently - watch Hamilton.

[Minstrel Boy]

18. At these numbers and with this breakdown,

I'm estimating 42 seats. How about you?

And the Conservatives are taking a real hit in BC. Are they going to make up those loses in Ontario?

[Screaming Lord Byron]

20. I'll go with this.

We take The Yukon back, we take four seats on Vancouver Island, six in the Vancouver area, two more inland, one of the two possible Edmonton seats, six in Saskatchewan, five in Manitoba, 12 in Ontario, 1 in NB, PEI and NF each, five in Nova Scotia. Forty-five seats off the top of my head.

[TrogL]

24. We who?

It's not in the NDP's best interest to split the left in Edmonton West.

[Minstrel Boy]

25. I don't see that.

I suppose the left vote may tend to vote strategically in Alberta more than anywhere else, given the size of the Conservative base. But why is it in the NDP's best interest to defer to the Liberals, in Edmonton West or anywhere? It would subvert the party's central theme this election, that Martin represents a conservative option, and that disaffected small-l Liberals may find more of their values reflected by the NDP.

[TrogL]

30. because the seat is too close to call at the best of times

Anne is quite left-wing. small-l liberals would do better with her than split the left and lose the seat to Freeper-wannabes.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

29. Our interests are in Edmonton East and Strathcona, TrogL.

[Minstrel Boy]

15. We could look at voting blocks this way:

Liberal: 39%
Socialist/Progressive (NDP, Bloc, Green): 32%
Conservative: 29%

[Screaming Lord Byron]

17. Our Greens are weird. Their leader is an ex-PCer.

They're not as left as the Scottish Green Party, who are definitely socialist, I don't see what the value of the Canadian Greens is.

[Minstrel Boy]

21. And Layton talks and walks the environment.

The Green Party doesn't have much room, or reason, to grow.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

19. As long as the Conservatives don't get in.

[Endangered Specie]

28. Dang, if only it were like that here.