Poll shows Toomey surging as GOP Senate primary nears

[TakebackAmerica]

Poll shows Toomey surging as GOP Senate primary nears

By PETER JACKSON
The Associated Press
4/20/2004, 9:30 a.m. ET


PHILADELPHIA (AP) — A surge in support for conservative challenger Rep. Pat Toomey one week before the primary has narrowed incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter's lead in Pennsylvania's Republican race for U.S. Senate to a scant five percentage points, according to a poll released Tuesday.


Toomey, a three-term congressman from the Allentown area, was backed by 44 percent of likely Republican voters, compared with 49 percent for Specter in the independent survey by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Seven percent were undecided.

In a Quinnipiac poll released April 7, Specter still held a comfortable lead of 15 percentage points. The primary is April 27.

http://www.pennlive.com/newsflash/pa/index.ssf?/base/politics-0/1082465651324430.xml
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This is GREAT news for Joe Hoeffell. I think he could eke it out over Toomey. Also the moderate and liberal in the GOP would be angered enough to stay home or vote for Hoeffell! IF Specter loses, Democrats would have 5 solid pick up opportunities:Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, Colorado, Alaska, and Illinois
Will probably lose Georgia, and one other southern state and Kerry's seat. That makes the 05'-06' senate 50 (D) 49 (R) and one independent.

[David__77]

1. I hope if Toomey wins, Specter will endorse the Democrat.

This should be fought for. Toomey is a radical.

[Mandate My Ass]

2. I hear ya

Just the possibility of having Loony Toomey and man-on-dog Santorum as my two Senators is enough to make me think of packing my bags and leaving PA forever.

[malachi]

20. Move to Philadelphia

Always room for one more thinking human being. We're not a part of PA. Ask the rest of the fine citizens fo Pennsyltucky.

[Frodo]

7. More likely he'll run as an independent.

I'm not altogether certain how that would change the dynamic.

[mobuto]

8. Extremely unlikely

Remember that Specter has been backed publicly by the White House, Rick Santorum, and the national GOP. If he loses, he'll have lost despite their support, and he'll owe them big.

[dolstein]

14. There is exactly ZERO chance of that happening

NT

[David__77]

16. What is more likely...

What I think would be likely would be silence and implicit opposition to Toomey. With another "moderate" Hafer having peeled away, even silence can send a message to other moderate GOPers not to support Toomey in order to make the rightists pay. It worked here in CA against Bill Simon. Riordan technically endorsed Simon after the primary, but it was known that he was quite displeased. It was enough to depress moderate GOPers.

[mobuto]

18. I disagree

If Toomey wins, I think Specter is going to endorse him and maybe even campaign for him. He'll hate doing it, but the White House will make him do it. Nevertheless, Toomey's going to have been hurt by Specter's campaign and there isn't any whistlestop tour that can undo the damage its done.

[Ediacara]

41. Specter has nothing to lose

If Toomey were to win, Specter will be at the end of his carreer, and will not take kindly to orders from the White House making him campaign for the man who cost him his career.

Not to mention he's one of the last "good" Republicans around, and not of the reactionary ilk that Toomey is.

[mobuto]

42. Well, yes and no

Remember that this Administration has set up a cottage industry doling out prominent positions to defeated GOP candidates.

The obvious choice would be to stick Specter in DoJ, but I doubt he'd get along too well with the defeated Republican Senator from Missouri. Maybe Bush would promise to appoint him as Tenet's replacement at CIA (assuming Bush has the balls to fire Tenet, which is questionable).

Not to mention he's one of the last "good" Republicans around, and not of the reactionary ilk that Toomey is.

I don't think Specter is "good" at all. He may not be as rabidly right wing as other Republicans, but he's as dishonest as they come.

[Ediacara]

45. I don't think Specter is "good" at all.

That's why "good" was in quotes :-)

I don't like him either, but if I had to choose between Santorum or Specter, I'd choose Specter no contest. Ideally I'd like a senate with 100 Wellstones, but I'd settle for 50 Max Baucuses and 50 Arlen Specters.

[ButterflyBlood]

32. not neccesarily

Specter will have nothing to lose.

[SemperEadem]

22. he still hasn't answered Matthews' question

Are you going to go after the women who get abortions? What are you going to do to them?

He won't answer that questions--and Matthews made him look like a dumb ass punk because he didn't have the balls to stand in his truth and speak it. The people of Pennsylvania should not let him out of answering that question, since he's using that issue in his campaign plattform.

The women of Pennsylvania should not let him get away without answering this--women on both sides of the issue should be asking the question. It's only fair. And the question needs to be answered before everyone goes to the polls... he should be made to state his position, since he's so driven by it.

[ender]

3. good.

toomey will be very easy to run against.

[0rganism]

40. Then explain how Grand Inquisitor Santorum got into the senate

Pennsylvania is a freaky state, with potential for great eeeeeeevil.

[mobuto]

4. Hoeffel's going to clean his clock.

Toomey in 2004!

[trogdor]

5. Is it too late to give him money?

Throwing a little gasoline on the fire.

[w4rma]

6. Good. Toomey is an honest whacko. Specter lies about his actions. (nt)

[spinbaby]

9. Specter is definitely feeling threatened

Enough so that he's getting endorsements from * and Santorum and running those "I'm more conservative than you are." ads. I actually went to one of his fundraisers in Wheeling last week (as a guest, I didn't donate). He looked very, very tired and spouted the party line like I've never heard from him before. It was downright shocking as I'd always thought of him as a moderate.

I still think I'd rather have him running against Hoeffell than Toomey. If Specter wins, we can live with it. If Toomey wins, we've got two nutcase religious nuts for senators in this state. Santorum really scares me and I don't want another one of him in the state.

[Sandpiper]

10. We'll "lose" Georgia only in the academic sense

Zell Miller always votes with the wingnuts.

[Gothmog]

11. Spector is Toast

Even if he survives the primary, he will be broke and too beat up to compete in November. I can not believe that the GOP has turned on one of its own like this.

[davidinalameda]

12. hehe

I can not believe that the GOP has turned on one of its own like this.

I can--isn't it great!

hehe

[Dulcinea]

13. Spector is too moderate for today's Repubs.

They like the Santorums, Chamblisses, & Tom Delays.

Right-wing freaks.

[nayt]

25. why not?

they hate him like we hate zell miller.

[dolstein]

15. To those people who think a Toomey win is great news

Let me remind you that Rick Santorum -- a fire breathing right-wing radical Republican -- has won two Senate elections. Toomey isn't going to be a pushover in the general election.

Personally, I think a very narrow Spector victory in the primary may be the best possible situation. A lot of Toomey supporters may decide to sit out the general election. That would help both Kerry and Hoeffel.

[mobuto]

17. No, Toomey's no pushover

But Hoeffel would definitely be favored. Santorum won in 1994 because that was a year no Republican could lose. He won again in 2000 because Dems declined to put up strong opposition. Toomey's well to the right of even Santorum, and Hoeffel's an extremely strong challenge. Moreover, since this would be an open seat, Toomey doesn't enjoy the incumbent advantage Santorum had in '00.

[modrepub]

21. Onward 2006!

Santorum benefited from a weak pro-life candidate and a weak showing from Philly in 2000. Barbara Haffer will be running against Santorum in 2006. She is well regarded in most areas of the state and is a scrappy person who won't take crap from a weasel like Santorum. I believe a pro-choice stance is a good contrast and will weaken republican support in the Philly suburbs and the Lehigh Valley which Republicans need to carry the state. Al Gore did well in these counties (actually winning a few even though Repubs outnumber Dems by 3-1). If Governor Rendel and Mayor Street can get Philly to show up the Dems have a good shot of unseating Santorum in 2006!

[BigBigBear]

19. Santorum has endorsed Specter, btw.

Heard about this race on NPR this morning.

[Zynx]

23. That was a long time ago. It hans't helped Specter.

[nayt]

26. i don't think they like each other

just reagan's 11th commandment at work

[yellowcanine]

24. A Toomey win would be bad.

Don't kid yourselves - A Toomey win would energize the wing nuts in November - that is bad for Hoeffell and for Kerry. I think Hoeffell has a better chance against a weakened Specter with the disgruntled wing nuts staying home.

[NewJerseyDem]

27. The wingnuts will vote for Bush

They aren't going to stay home. Specter is only weakened on the right but is strengthened on the left. Toomey has portrayed him as more liberal than he is, so Specter will be able to enter the general with himself viewed as quite liberal, not the usual republican loyalist that he is. That will help him win key moderate voters in the general that Hoeffel needs to win.

[sampsonblk]

28. This is shameful!

Their strategy is to fight over who is more conservative. We know what that means. We know what sorts of things they believe in. We know they are wrong.

They should be ashamed to admit they hold those beliefs. But instead its we who act ashamed. Why do they have balls and pride and why do we seem to have neither? Something is wrong here.

[osaMABUSh]

29. I wanted Spector but since * endorsed him I prefer Toomey

I say whomever Bush is endorsing then let's go the other way.

Bush was in Pittsburgh just last night raising money for Spector. If Toomey wins it prevents Bush from bragging on Spector and maybe lessens the number of trips to Pa. for Shrub.

[jburton]

30. Pretty crappy news for Specter

He has all the advantages...

-incumbent, $$$, endorsed by Bush* & Ricky Santorum

...yet STILL can't top 50%

[AlCzervik]

31. Maybe thats what

bringing him down, the Bush endorsement, look at what happened in the special election in Louisiana, i think it was Lousisiana when that republican woman ran as a Bush supporter she was trounced by a democrat in a heavily republican district.

[jburton]

35. maybe you're right

there was that other special election in Kentucky (maybe Tenn? not sure) where the loser basically ran on the "Bush* is my best friend" platform.

I think this Fall lots of Repugs in swing areas are going to tell the white house to stay the hell away from their district.

[cap]

36. I wonder if Bush's endorsement is a ploy...

if it were a genuine endorsement, I think he would have gotten the Club of Growth behind Specter. I think Bush is trying to triangulate Pennsylvania. He appears more moderate than its Senators but more conservative than a Democrat.

[TEXASYANKEE]

33. Lose Kerry's seat?

Excuse me for not staying on top of MA politics, but will Kerry's seat go to the GOP?? Please tell me no.

[AlCzervik]

34. highly doubtful

mass is still s democratic stronghold.

[mobuto]

37. Kerry's seat will go to the GOP

if he's elected, because the Governor is Republican Mitt Romney and he gets to appoint whomever he wants. I haven't been following it, but my understanding was that the state legislature was considering legislation that would empower it, not the Governor, to appoint his successor. The legislature is overwhelmingly Democratic.

[NewJerseyDem]

38. The legislature would give the voters the choice, I believe

The proposal would call for a special election to replace vacancies in the Senate. If they pass it, Congressmen Barney Frank, Ed Markey, Bill Delahunt, and a few others are possible candidates. The republicans might run fmr. Gov. Paul Celluci. The democrats would be favored though to win the seat.

[AlCzervik]

39. You are right

Mitt the carpet bagger Romney doesnt get to appoint anything, i know republicans love to appoint but not this time.

[David Zephyr]

43. Toasting Specter's Loss Early Here.

Bye, bye.

[Politicub]

44. Toomey is a freak show

But I hope he wins. Then mainstream Americans will see the face of the repulsive real GOP agenda.

Bush will be linked with the Neanderthal policy proposals of Toomey -- Dorian Gray's portrait uncovered!