Applications For Unemployment Benefits Plummet

[Purveyor]

Source: ASSOCIATED PRESS

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits plummeted last week, reversing nearly all the sharp rise reported the previous week.

The number of laid-off workers seeking benefits dropped 44,000 to a seasonally adjusted 434,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That is the steepest weekly fall since February 2010.

The drop suggests that the increase of 47,000 reported last week was mostly due to temporary factors. The state of New York reported that applications jumped by more than 24,000 two weeks ago, because more school systems had spring break than usual. That led to a spike in temporary layoffs. A new extended benefits program in Oregon had caused applications to rise in that state.

Still, the latest applications figure is far above the 375,000 level typically consistent with sustainable job growth. Weekly applications peaked during the recession at 659,000.

MORE...

Read more: http://thedailyrecord.com/2011/05/12/applications-for-unemployment-benefits-plummet/

[sharp_stick]

1. Still too damned high

but it's nice to see a move in the right direction. I can't wait to finally turn this around and get more people back to work. Where I am we've finally stopped the de-facto hiring freeze and are advertising at least some openings.

[onehandle]

2. And still, the people who have simply given up are not counted. nt

[Hosnon]

4. Only if they gave up right after losing their jobs. This is initial claims. nt.

[Le Taz Hot]

3. So the 99-weekers are dropping off the roles

and they've exhausted their benefits. And guess what? There are still no jobs out there. This SOUNDS like good news but I fear a lot more homeless and desperate people added to the millions of homeless and desperate people that are already out there. I fear there's another devastating wave coming. :cry:

[Hosnon]

5. These are initial claims. Losing benefits (e.g., the 99ers) would not show up as a decrease here. nt

[Le Taz Hot]

6. That part is understood.

But the same people are STILL unemployed and have been unemployed for 99 weeks now which means they have not established new employment which would serve as a basis for a new claim should they be laid off again. The recent increase in unemployment of 0.2% bears that out. The numbers SEEM encouraging until you factor in the above.

[Hosnon]

7. But the 99ers dropping off does not affect this number. If they found employment

but then lost it again, yes, this number would go up.

Are you asserting that a decrease in initial jobless claims means the economy is not creating jobs (because the 99ers haven't found jobs and relost them)?

[AndyTiedye]

14. No It Wouldn't Count

If the new job didn't last very long, the clock does not reset and they don't get any more benefits.

[Hosnon]

16. I think the measure is claims, not valid claims.

But that's not that relevant to my primary point, i.e., the weekly initial claims are just that - initial.

[SkyDaddy7]

8. Seriously, this is good news...Can't we just say so?

I know there is a long way to go yet but this is how we get where we want to be. We are coming out of the worst economic crisis in our lifetimes while at the same time there is an entire Party dedicated to stopping any & all attempts to create jobs. From someone who has been hit really hard by this economic crap I think we are headed in the correct direction. But that is just me.

[nyy1998]

9. +1 from someone who also took a hit in this recession. It's a positive sign, hope it continues! nt

[Yo_Mama]

10. No it's not

The four week moving average is still rising (436,750). That level of claims is definitely higher than February's, and much higher than March's. Claims really started to rise in April.

Last week was just a pop, but the problem is that initial claims are rising and that means total employment is almost certainly dropping. This is NOT good news. It's BAD news.

Remember, April's employment report looked good if you just looked at the Establishment Survey (+244,000) but quite bad if you looked at the Household survey (-190,000). One of these surveys was very wrong, or perhaps job creation wasn't happening, or was happening only at a very low level.

These continued rises in the four week average for initial claims indicate that the Establishment survey was wrong and that job creation right now is very lacking. The poster above talking about the 99rs is dead on.

Earlier in the year we were steadily creating jobs. The Establishment survey is known for missing sudden turns - it catches up with itself about three quarters later now, sometimes it takes over a year.

Edit: I realized that if you don't watch these figures you don't understand what those numbers mean. The four-week average had fallen down to about the 390 thousand level - now it's way above that, and it is moving into the declining total employment level. It is also about the highest it has been in six months.

[Hosnon]

12. I think this graph is good evidence that things have improved dramatically and continue

to improve (overall).

ETA: Okay, the graph wouldn't display. It's on CalculatedRisk.

[Yo_Mama]

13. I must respectfully disagree

If you will go to this BLS historical series
http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm

And select Employed, SA, you'll see that we have less people working than in 2009. We do have marginally more people working than in 2010 for April, but we had less people working in April than in March of this year.

We are, at least temporarily, on the slide downwards again. It's because of inflation. The retail report showed almost no gain once you take out groceries and gas. What's happening is that small and service businesses are struggling with higher costs and lower real sales, and it is showing up in unemployment.

In April the economy slipped into stall mode. So far it does not look like May will be any better. We are probably looking at 1.5% - 1.6% GDP for second quarter even if June revives a bit.

Carloads in April dropped below last year's. Gas is 2% below last year's totals. Diesel is beginning to go low.

If we cannot pull out in the summer, by fall we will be in recession territory again.

[Hosnon]

15. The unemployment rate and its derivative are two separate things.

Unemployment is definitely too high, but a drop in the weekly initial claims indicates that the picture is improving, not deteriorating.

[plumbob]

11. Wait for June, when 100,000 Texas teachers will file, and 10,000 state

workers as well.

Job losses for next fall due to state budget cuts.