Surprise jobs surge boosts economic outlook

[FBaggins]

Source: Reuters

A surprise surge in private-sector employment last month to its highest level on record provided the most bullish signal in months that the economy is slowly mending.

Private employers added 297,000 jobs in December, triple the median estimate by economists and up from the gain of 92,000 in November, an ADP Employer Services report showed on Wednesday.

The news reduced early losses in stock index futures, though the stock market was still expected to open lower. The jobs report helped send the price of the 30-year Treasury bond a full point lower.

"You cannot ignore the strength of this report," Tom Porcelli, a U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets. "With small business now beginning to start to ramp up hiring, it's safe to feel better about the labor backdrop."



Read more: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Private-sector-adds-297000-rb-2138114180.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

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Great news if a bit overstated. It's only the "highest level on record" because the particular "record" (i.e., ADP) hasn't been around very long.

It's also premature because ADP has a pretty lousy track record. I won't get too excited until the BLS number comes out.

But it's hard to imagine them being so far off that the real number won't still be great news.

[sabbat hunter]

1. My enthusiasm is a bit tempered

until I see a seasonally adjusted number. Meaning, how many of those 297k jobs were jobs for the xmas rush?

[FBaggins]

5. This *IS* a seasonally adjusted number. n/t

[earthside]

24. Jiggered.

"Seasonally adjusted" means manipulated and massaged numbers.

Since this is a private company's report, we have really no idea what it means and how they have 'adjusted' their numbers.

What is more important -- and relevant to the ADP report -- is this observation by Jim Hightower:

No one at the top wants to admit it, but big business has quietly been imposing a structural transformation on our economy, shifting from a workforce of permanent employees to one in which most jobs are temporary, scarce, low-paid, without benefits and with no upward mobility. Of the 1.2 million jobs created by the private sector last year, for example, 26 percent were temporary positions, and in November, temp jobs soared to 80 percent of that month's total.

What's happening here is not merely a matter of a few million folks being momentarily down on their luck, but of an intentional dismantling of America's middle-class structure.

Sadly, simply statistics on the number of employed and unemployed and trends up or down do not tell the real story -- new jobs at minimal wages and benefits will still leave Americans impoverished.

[Ruperto31]

33. Good post. Everyone should read it. n/t

[Sal Minella]

36. Excellent post, recommended read. n/t

[OHdem10]

2. When the big increases occur, it would be helpful if they indicated

the states affected.

[Sal Minella]

3. WTH is "the labor backdrop?"

I do not speak the Jargon Of Big Business Profits, and I have no idea what "the labor backdrop" is supposed to mean.

[valerief]

8. Good question. nt

[JJW]

4. Temporary Holiday Workers

My local grocery store hired a bunch of teens to help bag and carry groceries to customers' cars.

[FBaggins]

6. There are temporary holiday workers every December.

This report implies that it's more than that.

As I said above however... ADP doesn't have the best track record. The number could be way off.

But it's certainly not bad news.

[nyy1998]

21. These numbers are already seasonally-adjusted nt

[valerief]

7. What country are the jobs in? If the US, are they all H1B jobs?

Sorry, but 'bright outlook' doesn't fit the zeitgeist.

[Harry Hope]

9. Private sector adds 297,000 jobs in December: ADP

Source: Reuters


Private sector adds 297,000 jobs in December: ADP

NEW YORK | Wed Jan 5, 2011 8:24am EST

(Reuters) - Private employers added 297,000 jobs in December compared with a revised gain of 92,000 in November, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

The November figure was originally reported as a gain of 93,000.

The median of estimates from 27 economists surveyed by Reuters for the ADP Employer Services report, jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, was for a rise of 100,000 private-sector jobs in December.

The ADP figures come ahead of the government's much more comprehensive labor market report on Friday, which includes both public and private sector employment.



Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE7042B220110105

---

Not bad

Harry

[DCBob]

10. Very good news.. I suspect this is more than just holiday hires..

since its nearly triple what economists expected.

[jpak]

11. I don't believe any of this - Obama is just cooking the numbers - just like Bush

and it will be revised down to 297,000 jobs LOST next week

just wait and see

:D

[Pirate Smile]

12. LOL

Good job getting a jump on the doom and gloomers.

[DCBob]

17. ADP is an independent organization..

and I dont believe Obama works there.

[jpak]

19. Nonsense - the Corporatist/Neocon/Wall Street Fat Cat Obama controls all

it's a conspiracy

we're doomed

get with the plan

:D

[DCBob]

20. Got it..

;)

[nyy1998]

23. It's the Payroll Report of DOOOOOOM!!!!

Hide your wife and hide your kids, there's an Obama in the USA and he's creating Payroll Reports of DOOOOOM!

[mikeburetta]

13. employment

Now lets see how the repubs will spin this ahh yes i can see it now.."Even as republicans are now being sworn into the house our policies are creating hope and a new future for america by market based solutions" Yup I can just see them taking credit where no credit was due.

[Demeter]

14. ADP Is Notoriously Inaccurate

[Lucky Luciano]

15. True...but if this were not reflective, then this would be much more inaccueate than usual. nt

[Demeter]

38. Yeah, it was

The U.S. economy added 103,000 jobs in the final month of 2010 while the nation’s unemployment rate fell to 9.4%, the lowest level since May 2009, the Labor Department reported Friday...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-rate-down-to-94-as-103000-jobs-added-2011-01-07?dist=beforebell

[Still a Democrat]

18. Which is no doubt what Rush will say

Thanks for the heads up on the RW talking point

[FBaggins]

22. Reality isn't a RW talking point.

Sorry if that isn't convenient.

[Demeter]

29. Facts CAN Be Talking Points I Suppose

but as DU knows, talking points are not necessarily facts. Too bad this Administration can't deal with the facts...

[Still a Democrat]

30. Like a great jobs report?

I honestly believe there are folks here that recoil at good news.

[Demeter]

32. When you can tell the difference between good news that is spin

by a known purveyor of the same, and fact, then we can have a useful discussion.

[FBaggins]

34. The point was that this isn't really a "jobs report"

The real jobs report comes out on Friday. ADPs report really doesn't deserve to be covered because they are so frequently so far off. They predicted a great number last month and it turned out to be lousy... and they predicted a lousy number the month before and it turned out to be pretty good (about quadruple their expectations). It's been like that for years.

They don't come close enough often enough to differentiate themselves from a blind squirrel or stuck clock.

It only really becomes "good news" when it's confirmed on Friday.

[Still a Democrat]

37. Okay

but you know some will scorn a good report Friday as well.

[Demeter]

39. So, how's a little reality?

The U.S. economy added 103,000 jobs in the final month of 2010 while the nation’s unemployment rate fell to 9.4%, the lowest level since May 2009, the Labor Department reported Friday...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-rate-down-to-94-as-103000-jobs-added-2011-01-07?dist=beforebell

[FBaggins]

40. Still not a bad report.

On the whole it makes clear that the recovery is starting to show up in the labor market.

It just makes ADP look bad... again.

[rfranklin]

16. I would like to see by whom and where the jobs are being added...

because in my section of Main Street none of the merchants I speak to are seeing much to be positive about.

[Still a Democrat]

27. self delete n/t

[Pale Blue Dot]

25. Unemployment Rises In Two-Thirds Of Metro Areas

Unemployment rates rose in more than two-thirds of the nation's largest metro areas in November, a sharp reversal from the previous month and the most since June.

The Labor Department said Tuesday that unemployment rates rose in 258 of the 372 largest cities, fell in 88 and remained the same in 26. That's worse than the previous month, when rates fell in 200 areas and rose in 108.

The economy is strengthening, but employers have been reluctant to create jobs. Hiring will pick up in 2011, but not enough to significantly lower the unemployment rate, economists forecast.

Metro areas in states with the weakest housing markets, such as California, Nevada, Florida and Georgia, are seeing ongoing increases in unemployment. Las Vegas, Atlanta, San Francisco and Miami all saw their rates rise. Construction jobs haven't returned. Real estate agents and mortgage broker positions have also disappeared.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=132653127

I posted this yesterday in LBN where it received one response and promptly sunk to the bottom of the page.

Who's right? What are we choosing to believe or not believe?

[FBaggins]

26. Why ask who's right? They aren't contradictory.

You should actually expect the rate to increase for a time after job creation really gets going. Many of the people who dropped out of the labor force when they stopped looking for jobs will start looking again as the employment picture brightens.

If the number of people re-entering the workforce exceeds the number of net new jobs... the unemployment rate goes up... even as the jobs picture is improving.

[Lucky Luciano]

28. That is exactly right.

Because of our method of calculating unemployment, a small but very temporary utick in unemployment would actually be quite bullish. We had a small uptick in December, bur don't know how much came from the size if the labor force increasing.

[Scurrilous]

31. K & R

:thumbsup:

[theophilus]

35. I believe hiring will skyrocket now that the tax cuts have been extended.

I think the corps. were sitting on their 1.7 trillion to hurt the Dems. and to get the tax cuts extended. Just a theory but I predicted this jump last year! We'll see. The "boom" won't last long, though. The pugs will credit the tax cuts and a pug will probably get elected in 2012 so you got three or four years before we get whacked. Maybe five.