Lisa Murkowski ponders write-in bid

[Freddie Stubbs]

Source: Politico

Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski spent Thursday behind closed doors, meeting with her Republican colleagues ahead of her critical decision on whether to mount a write-in bid in this November’s election.

Murkowski, who lost her primary bid against Joe Miller last month, plans to make an announcement Friday in Alaska about whether she will run as a write-in candidate in the election. Top Republicans fear such a bid would give Democratic nominee Scott McAdams an opening, and further expose the party to internal divisions at a time when the GOP is seeking party unity.

After spending more than two hours speaking with her colleagues on the floor and in the Republican cloak room — including Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman John Cornyn, Murkowksi was mum about her intentions.

Murkowski said “the only thing I’m considering right now” is Alaska. She said she hadn’t done polling to assess her chances as a write-in candidate — and said she’d been receiving “great support” from her colleagues.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42282.html

[Blue_In_AK]

1. There are a couple of ways to look at this.

If she decides to run, she will pull some Republican votes, which could hurt Miller, but she will also pull a lot of moderates who otherwise might vote for Democrat Scott McAdams. If she doesn't get in, the choice will be very clear, and in my opinion will give Scott a better chance.

Over 60 percent of registered voters in Alaska are either independent or nonaffiliated, so Lisa, as a moderate Republican, is definitely the wild card here.

[LiberalAndProud]

5. I tend to think it's a net gain.

I love McAdams, but if there's even a slim chance that Miller wins (and his chances are more than slim, as I see it), then I'd welcome Lisa as a sane alternative. And I like the idea of splitting the party loyalists' vote.

[Blue_In_AK]

6. BUT if Lisa doesn't pull enough Republican and independent

votes and takes away from Scott, then we've got Miller. Write-ins are hard to win. Scott really needs those people in the middle.

[LiberalAndProud]

9. Wow. It does look grim, doesn't it?

Are numbers changing at all for McAdams? By the polls, it look like a Miller win regardless, but Lisa certainly won't help his prospects. Yikes!

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/08/alaska-senate-race.html
The reason for the closeness of the race is Miller's unpopularity. 52% of voters in the state have an unfavorable opinion of while only 36% see him positively. Democrats (84%) are almost universal in their dislike of him and independents array strongly against him as well by a 54/32 margin. His poll numbers within his own party are positive but somewhat tepid at 57/32. Miller is the latest in a long line of candidates unpopular with the general electorate that Republican primary voters have nominated this year joining Sharron Angle, Rand Paul, and Ken Buck. But this political climate may just be GOP friendly enough that all those folks get through in the fall anyway.

In a three way contest with Murkowski running as the Libertarian candidate Miller leads but with only 38% to 34% for Murkowski and 22% for McAdams. Democrats have been hopeful that Murkowski will run on the assumption she would split the Republican vote but her supporters actually go 47-23 for McAdams in a two way contest with Miller.

Murkowski's support is pretty evenly distributed across the board- she gets 38% of independents, 32% of Republicans, and 28% of Democrats. Miller gets 59% of the Republican vote and McAdams gets 57% of the Democratic vote.

[Blue_In_AK]

11. Before she went to Washington,

Lisa was actually quite moderate, but she has been forced to move right because of the current political climate down there. I think a lot of people still see her as moderate which is why she still has this cross-party appeal.

If I were her, I would not run a write-in but specifically state that I was not endorsing Miller. She doesn't have to affirmatively endorse the Democrat to make her position clear. That way she could save herself for a run in the future, if she wants to take on Mark Begich or whatever. I just can't see her endorsing Miller after the lies and smears that he directed her way during the primary. And at the very end, too, when she didn't have time to refute his claims.

[liskddksil]

12. This poll is old - Rasmussen has the gap at 6 points in a two way race

I hope Murkowski stays out and her moderate supporters end up sealing it for McAdams

[Blue_In_AK]

14. Thank you.

That's the way I see it, too. The more people see of Joe Miller, the less they like him. Scott, on the other hand, is on the way up. Lisa only muddies the waters.

[mitchtv]

2. that last name might be tough for some Alaskans to spell

And I think in a write in you have to do it correctly, don't you?

[Blue_In_AK]

3. That's what we thought,

but the director of the Division of Elections has said recently that the voter's clear intent will be the determining factor. I've heard rumors that the teabaggers are looking for another Lisa M to run a write-in just to confuse the issue. It sounds like something they'd do.

[Freddie Stubbs]

4. That varies from state to state

Some require perfect spelling, some allow for interpretation to determine 'voter intent'

[onehandle]

7. Just do it, Senator. Don't hesitate. nt

[Cognitive_Resonance]

8. I think this would likely help McAdams, and defintely widen fissures within the GOP. nt

[molly77]

10. Write in?

If she somehow won, would the voting data be private like in '04. Democrats were not allowed a peek.Private except to republicans that is.

[Alcibiades]

13. Do it!

We know what Joe Lieberman would do.

[savalez]

15. She should because Miller is a nut case and bad for Pubs.

....and it might split the vote!