Australian election so far:- Labor may be able to form minority government

[shaayecanaan]

Source: ABC

ABC election expert Antony Green predicts Australia is headed for a hung Parliament.

Here's the likely state of play: Labor: 73 seats; Coalition: 72 seats; Greens: 1 seat; Independents: 4 seats.

Read more: www.abc.net.au/elections/

---

Currently looking like Labor will fall at least two short of a majority. They will need the support of a Green member as well as an left-leaning independent who has run under the Green banner in the past.

There are three Conservative independents in rural electorates; however one of them is an agrarian socialist who is likely to support Labor on economic issues. The Conservatives will need the support of all of them to form a working majority.

[Swagman]

1. The Rupert Murdoch election to destroy Labor..not quite successful

[shaayecanaan]

3. The Labor attempt to destroy Labor...quite successful

Anthony Green has just indicated the Coalition may get 73 seats. At least three of the independents are firmly right of centre. They may now have the advantage as far as a minority govt is concerned.

For me, a minority Labor government with Green support would have been ideal. It may not turn out that way.

[Matilda]

4. Looking increasingly like an Abbott government but without a clear majority.

Of course, with the Greens holding the balance of power in the Senate,
he won't have much chance of getting through any of his most extreme
legislation.

It's a very interesting situation; there hasn't been a hung parliament
federally in my lifetime. But the odds will be on another election
at the earliest opportunity.

It says pretty clearly that while both major parties are dragging their
feet on meaningful action on climate change, the people have spoken.
But with both parties beholden to big business, will they be taking
note, or will they continue to try to justify their lack of action?

[shaayecanaan]

6. Labor needs 3 of the 5 seats in doubt...

if they can do that (and they may well do that in Lindsay and possibly in Hasluck at least) then they can still form a minority government.

Maxine McKew is the only MP who has thus far spoken candidly about the campaign. She flagged the turning away from the ETS as well as the coup against Rudd as being the factors in the swing in her electorate.

The Greens have come away with 9 senators; however they will not take their seats until July, so unless Lyn Hatfield-Dodds takes a senate seat in the ACT, the Coalition will be able to pass legislation with the support of Xenophon and Fielding until then.

[shaayecanaan]

7. The ABC has just called another 2 seats for the Coalition - that sinks it

Labor cannot get a minority government from there. Bob Katter and the other 2 Conservative independents have announced they will be making a decision as a bloc, in which case they will be very likely voting for the conservatives.

[Violet_Crumble]

8. The only bright point of tonight is the Greens controlling the Senate...

Oh, and Steve Fielding losing his senate seat.

[Joe Chi Minh]

12. Hooray! Backing g a loser, Rupe?! You wait till Kev gets back and

sorts out those mining companies. Sellers' market you know. You should know that, as a businessman. But now you do, as a patriot, you'll be thrilled.

[totodeinhere]

14. You spoke too soon. he backed the narrow winner. Sorry. n/t

[Joe Chi Minh]

17. Really? That's too bad. The Aussie people are in for a real kicking, Just

like us in the UK. People never seem to tire of the taste of rich people's shoe-leather on their tongue. And I can never believe it will happen again.

Will you be having a party?

[totodeinhere]

19. Why would I have a party about this? I didn't say i liked it. I was just reporting what happened. n

[Joe Chi Minh]

20. Sorry. I misinterpreted it. My fault not yours. It sounded to my ears as

if you were as good as saying, "Shot you down in flames, didn't it!" Curt. But it didn't call for a paragraph of waffle, I agree.

[Joe Chi Minh]

22. Are you sure?

http://newsmag.net/2010/08/22/australian-election-results-2010-julia-gillard-labor-party-wins-with-majority/

[Joe Chi Minh]

23. The impression given by this article is that it could be a week before

the result is known. It looks too close to call now.

There's a lot of horse-trading by both parties going on with the Greens and Independents at present.

http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/index.php/news/content/view/full/94324

[pampango]

2. BBC: Australia count begins after tight election race

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11037486

Counting is underway in Australia in a general election that looks to be one of the tightest in the country for decades. Early exit polls put Julia Gillard, Australia's first female prime minister, ahead of her conservative rival Tony Abbott by a slim margin. An exit poll by Channel Nine suggested a narrow victory by Ms Gillard, with an expected win of 52% compared to 48% for Mr Abbott's coalition. A second exit poll by Sky News indicated Ms Gillard would garner 51% of the votes to Mr Abbott's 49%.

But the exit polls also suggested a swing against Labor in key marginal seats, which will determine the final result.

In his campaign he has pledged to tighten immigration and has hit out at government spending. He has also toned down his well-known climate change scepticism.

Ms Gillard, a former lawyer who called a snap election shortly after coming to office, is hoping to be rewarded for the government's handling of the economy, which weathered the global recession remarkably well.

[gemini_liberal]

5. Looks like Abbott will win.

Green sock sniffers will pretend this is a win. No matter the way you look at it, it isn't. Imagine Bush in 2000, that is how it is!

[Dawson Leery]

9. Sorry hear this one.

Reminds we why I will get out and vote for Democrats this fall.
Stupidity is not unique to America by any means.

[shaayecanaan]

25. Green sock sniffers, eh? By lordy, I can feel a song coming on!

To the tune of O Christmas Tree:-

The people's flag is palest pink
It's not the colour you might think
White collar bosses stand and cheer
The Labor government is here
We'll change the country bit by bit
So nobody will notice it
And just to show that we're sincere
We'll sing The Red Flag once a year

The cloth cap and the woollen scarf
Are images outdated
For we're the party's avant garde
And we are educated
So raise the rolled umbrella high
The college scarf, the old school tie
The working class can kiss my arse
Ive got the foreman's job at last

[CBHagman]

10. Blog from the Sydney Morning Herald site.

Follow commentary here:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/and-so-it-all-comes-down-to-this-20100821-139nl.html

And here's a story from the Sunday edition:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/kath-and-kim-election-a-nightmare-result-for-major-parties-20100821-13a28.html

LABOR was leading narrowly on the two-party preferred vote last night. But a national swing to the Liberal Party of about 2.5 per cent, the Greens victory in the seat of Melbourne, a possible win for the Greens in Grandler, and the election of at least three independents means Australia could end up with a hung parliament.

The result was simply too close to call at the time of publication.

The figures suggested whichever side forms government could have to deal with four independents, and potentially two Greens.

After the extraordinary ''Ruddslide'' of the 2007 federal election, yesterday's loss of so many Labor seats will leave the party shell-shocked.

[depakid]

13. Shell shocked = stand up and fight for what you believe in, or face an electorate

that doesn't believe in you.

[craigmatic]

11. Looks like there is a growing epidemic of westernized democracies having divided/coalition govs

I hope it doesn't happen here.

[depakid]

15. Not so much divided government, mate -more like reckoning

Who will do the people's business?

In every state and every nation

Props to The Kentuckian for showing me that bit of insight.

[Matilda]

16. While we wait for the result ...

it occurred to me that Julia Gillard might hold the record for the
shortest incumbency on record if she doesn't hold on to power. But
not so: the shortest term in office was Francis Forde (who?) at seven
days, and there are three others who served shorter terms than Julia:

http://members.optushome.com.au/kazoom/trivia/austprime.html


We waited so long for our first female PM, it will be such a shame if
it comes to a premature end.

[Odin2005]

18. Those dimwits should not have thrown Kevin Rudd out.

That was essentially a Neo-Liberal coup.

[Joe Chi Minh]

21. Bingo.

[Matilda]

24. It was actually a coup by the right-wing Labor faction,

which is controlled by NSW - usually just referred to as "Sussex Street', from the addres of their office.

They are little more than a bunch of mafiosi (and I mean that literally), who have turned New South Wales into the most corrupt and incompetent state government in the country. They will be lucky to retain more than a handful of seats when NSW goes to the polls early next year.

Some of the backlash against Labor comes from people in my state who hate state Labor, and see a bad sign in their re-emergence into federal politics. Kevin Rudd didn't pander to them, and that's a big reason why they wanted him out. They want to control who is leader, and thereby control policy.

When Tony Abbott accuses Labor of being controlled by "faceless men", that's who he means. They are unelected and therefore unnaccountable. We might hope that the politicians in federal labor will see the light, but I won't hold my breath. Factionalism is rife in Labor politics, and always has been.

[Kringle]

26. was the election a 'snap' election, or not? I have seen it ...

described as...

'snap'

and,

'an election is due every 3 years'

[shaayecanaan]

27. no, not really...

I would call it an early election rather than a snap election. It was due by October in any event.

[Kringle]

28. OK, it was an early election

nobody likes an early election

[Matilda]

29. It was another error of judgment by Labor.

They thought to capitalise on Julia Gillard's bounce in the polls after her assumption of power, but hadn't calculated that her lack of action on climate change would cause the same drop in popularity as it did with Kevin Rudd. It took just two weeks for Australia to become disillusioned with her, and it went downhill from there.

[shaayecanaan]

30. I thought that they presumed that the bump meant that people werent upset about the spill...

For some reason, resentment at the putsch against Rudd only started to gain traction a couple of weeks afterwards, it may have had something to do with the leaks.

In any event, it was an extraordinarily high stakes play by Labor to spill 2 months ahead of a general election. It would be justifiable perhaps were the government facing a firing squad but Rudd's polling figures were hardly abysmal. Labor was besotted with the fact that Julia Gillard was better regarded by its focus groups than Rudd, and failed to appreciate that even voters naturally sympathetic to Gillard might be turned off by the spill.

Ironically, the intent of the spill was to allow Labor to move to the right on populist issues in order to appease voters in outer suburban marginal constituencies. Given that Labor went ahead and lost most of them anyway, Im not sure if the move could be considered successful.

Apparently the bookies have got Bill Shorten as odds-on to lead Labor to the next election. It just keeps getting worse.

[Matilda]

31. Gillard's climate change "do nothing" speech was the end for her.

We were already hearing that Kevin Rudd had dropped his ETS scheme on advice from the very people who would later execute him because he was losing favour in the polls. When Gillard made it clear that nothing would change, people had to start wondering what it was all about. And whatever it was, it looked dirty, and still does.

Gillard's climate change announcement came one month after the coup, and two weeks after her first jump in the polls. It's been downhill all the way since then. Her gaffe on East Timor as a processsing centre pointed up the lack of good advice from someone who understood diplomacy. It was a mistake that Rudd would never have made.

If Gillard is forced into Opposition now, her career will be over, I think. I can't see her coming back after this.

And yes, the spectre of Bill Shorten haunts us all. I used to think he'd be okay as leader some day, but I spit on him now.