STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday July 19

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday July 19, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 6, 2010

Dow... 10,097.90 -261.41 (-2.59%)
Nasdaq... 2,179.05 -70.03 (-3.21%)
S&P 500... 1,064.88 -31.60 (-2.97%)
Gold future... 1188.200 -20.100 (-1.66%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.94% -0.02 (-1.31%)
30-Year Bond 3.95 -0.01 (-0.48%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Report

10:00 National Homebuilders Association Index July
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 17

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

39. Homebuilder Index down, prior report revised downward

10:00 National Homebuilders Association Index July
Actual 14
Prior 16
Revised from 17

[ozymandius]

42. NAHB Builder Confidence falls to lowest level since April 2009

by CalculatedRisk on 7/19/2010 10:00:00 AM

Note: any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

The housing market index (HMI) was at 14 in June. This is the lowest level since April 2009.

Press release from the NAHB:

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes declined for a second consecutive month in July to its lowest level since April of 2009, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. The HMI fell two points from a downwardly revised number in the previous month to 14 for July.
...
Each of the HMI's component indexes recorded declines in July. The component gauging current sales conditions fell two points to 15, while the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months edged down one point to 21 and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers fell three points to 10.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/nahb-builder-confidence-falls-to-lowest.html

[Dr.Phool]

56. They built a whole new development of homes and condos next to my wife's office.

They started building right around the boom peak. The sign out front said prices starting in the $130's. It's been steadily dropping since. I drove by Thursday, it said prices starting in the low $90's.

It couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of Florida developers. They were bound and determined to not let any space in this county go unpaved. I haven't heard any talk lately about their plan to extend a road several miles East to the Suncoast Highway, and to Land O Lakes for a "hurricane evacuation route". Conveniently left unsaid is exactly which developers and County Commissioners own all of that undeveloped land.

[ozymandius]

2. Oil prices fall below $76 as traders eye equities

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell slightly to below $76 a barrel Monday in Asia as traders eyed falling global stock markets ahead of more key corporate earnings reports this week.

Oil prices fluttered in the mid-$70s last week as investors sought insight into the strength of the global economy from the start of second quarter company results in the U.S.

This week includes earnings reports from several big companies, including International Business Machines Corp. on Monday, followed by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. the next day. Later in the week come reports from Coca-Cola Co., Amazon.com Inc. and Microsoft Corp.

In other Nymex trading in August contracts, heating oil fell 0.13 cent to $2.0100 a gallon, gasoline dropped 0.24 cent to $2.0462 a gallon and natural gas rose 1.9 cents to $4.538 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Demeter]

3. First Rec! Calling All Slackers Out

blessed are those that can sleep, for their mothers get some rest, too.

Humid and nasty again. Board meeting tomorrow. Send chocolate!

Hope we all have a better week.

[ozymandius]

7. G'morning.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
I'm glad you got some sleep. Some effects of my vacation have not gone away yet -like the weird sleep schedule- staying up later than usual. It's good to be back at my regular computer, though, rather than hunched over a laptop.

Good luck at the meeting tomorrow. :hi:

[Demeter]

10. Not Enough, Though

I tell the Kid to go lie down, she does, and 3 minutes later, there's snoring. Meanwhile, Mom is wishing for the ability to do the same...

[Roland99]

21. I'm reliving all that again.

they come in in waves lately. :)

[DemReadingDU]

15. Here's the chocolate!

Enjoy!

http://www.hersheysstore.com/product_detail.asp?T1=HSH+034000363001&trk_src_ss=HSHGBASEWEBMACSS|SEO|GB|

[Po_d Mainiac]

43. You can't afford chocolate anymore

The purchase was enough to move the entire global cocoa market, sending the price to the highest level since 1977, and triggering rumours and intrigue in the City.

It is unclear which person, or group of traders, was behind the deal, but it was the largest single cocoa trade for 14 years.

The cocoa beans, which are sitting in warehouses either in The Netherlands, Hamburg, or closer to home in London, Liverpool or Humberside is equivalent to the entire supply of the commodity in Europe, and would fill more than five Titanics. They are worth £658 million.

http://www.commodity-trading-basics.com/TB/?P=3729

Would someone please execute these assholes.

They may be able to drive the price up short term, which will kill demand for next years crop, and who gets screwed? Laborers in countries that are desperate for the work

Côte d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) Ghana Indonesia Brazil Nigeria Cameroon Malaysia (Largest growers)

One can hope that these pathetic excuses of humans get the Hunt Bros. treatment. Pray a previously unknown aircraft hanger sized warehouse loaded with cocoa beans, is dumped on the market.
.......
Do they not realize that the women of this world are capable mass destruction without a chocolate fix?

Men, we must prepare for the end of civilization.

[Demeter]

49. My Hero!

I think a lot of men are ignorant of that fact, or just ignore at their peril.

[Dr.Phool]

52. Maybe the Hunt Family got a cheap loan from Goldman.

In the mean time, I'm hiding the peppermint patties.

[Po_d Mainiac]

57. Doc, you oviously don't get it!

You just put your safety in peril by announcing to the world that you have a stash of chocolate. Even worse you are hording peppermint patties!

Without chocolate, Viagra is less than worthless...Look around you. You probably live in the State most addicted to the stiffy meds.

All I can say is :wow:

[ozymandius]

4. Economists say recovery continues, but pace slows

NEW YORK – Economists say the U.S. recovery continued during the second quarter of this year with more businesses hiring workers and fewer cutting jobs, but the pace of growth has slowed, a new survey shows.

The National Association for Business Economics said its latest survey, released Monday, found 31 percent of businesses added workers between April and June, the highest level in three years. And 39 percent of those surveyed say they expect to hire more workers over the next six months — the most since January 2008. Manufacturers reported the strongest increase in demand and profitability. Finance, insurance and real estate sectors saw the slowest growth.

The number of respondents who think real gross domestic product (GDP) will expand by more than 3 percent this year slid to 20 percent from the 24 percent who expected that rate of growth in April. But sixty-seven percent of respondents still believe the economy will expand by more than 2 percent in 2010.

The service sector remains a victim of weak consumer confidence. A volatile stock market, 9.5 percent unemployment rate, lackluster wage gains and a stalled housing market caused shoppers to clamp down on their spending in May and June. An economic report released Friday showed that consumer confidence fell in July to its lowest point in nearly a year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100719/ap_on_bi_ge/us_nabe_survey

[ozymandius]

16. Firms plan to hire but service sector lags: survey

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Plans by U.S. firms to increase payrolls over the next six months have risen to the highest level since January 2008, but some service sector companies still see layoffs, according to a survey released on Monday.

The survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) also showed strong demand in the goods-producing sector, while service sector businesses reported a softening in their expansion rates.

The results echo recent trends in the U.S. economy. Although the services sector dominates the economy, the manufacturing sector has led the recovery. Layoffs in the services sector could further slow the recovery.

In the services sector, of the 28 respondents, 4 percent saw layoffs over the next six months, 36 percent planned to hire more workers, while 57 percent saw no change in payrolls.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100719/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_survey

[Demeter]

50. If this is a recovery, I sure would hate to see a Depression

[Demeter]

5. As Massachusetts health 'reform' goes, so could go Obamacare

I'd take it as given....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/18/AR2010071802733.html?nav=rss_opinion/columns

Although it isn't mentioned, the worst part of the health care deformation is it institutionalizes the inequality of care over economic and geographical divisions. Instead of attaining some improvement in quality and quantity, it subsidizes the present inequities. In other words, there are no standards.

[Demeter]

6. Corn based ethanol: a waste of taxpayer money. CBO

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/7/18/885333/-Corn-based-ethanol:-a-waste-of-taxpayer-money.-CBO-

[ozymandius]

11. That is such a stupid use of corn

and even dumber to subsidize corn ethanol growth and manufacture. Corn ethanol also opens up avenues through which investor speculation can get a handhold in the food commodities markets.

[Dr.Phool]

37. It's nothing more than a subsidy for ADM and corn belt senators.

And I think it's completely useless.

I noticed the mileage difference on a couple of road trips in the Prius. I got a 10% reduction in gas mileage using fuel that had "up to 10% ethanol". So where is the energy?

Not to mention the havoc it created with eating up hoses and seals in engines.

Another reason that the Senate is an obsolete, corrupt institution. With assholes like Chuck Grassley in there, you'll never get it repealed.

[Demeter]

8. Yesterday I Saw the Weinermobile in the parking lot at Krogers

July 18, 1936, the first Oscar Meyer Wienermobile was introduced...

[Dr.Phool]

9. Don't ever jump out the car window at 40mph!

?t=1279537435


?t=1279537435

[Demeter]

12. Oh, No! Is she all right?

[ozymandius]

13. OMG!

Poor dear. Other than a banged up face, is the dog okay?

[Dr.Phool]

19. Just a few bruises and road rash.

Scared the shit out of me.

We decided to take her to the dog beach yesterday. One second she was there, the next...gone. I heard a noise and noticed that there was no longer a dog in the back seat. A few seconds later, when the shock was gone I pulled over, and an old guy behind me pulled over, and said she fell out the window, about a quarter mile back, and ran across the road and what direction.

We went back, and searched for about a half hour before she answered my wife's calls. And then she ran in the opposite direction, playing her "chase me" game. So, the wife ran back in the opposite direction, and Sara chased her.

We took her to the emergency vet to get checked. They said to just give her some medications, ointment, and keep her very quiet (yeah, right) for the next week.

Other than that, you could never tell that anything happened. In fact, she's ready to kick ass right now. Like the vet said, "What do you expect? She's a Lab".

[ozymandius]

24. Just stunning that she was so undamaged.

Makes for a great story though. But damn! Do you think that Sara learned a lesson about jumping from a moving vehicle at 40 mph?

[Dr.Phool]

30. I think so. Or possibly she just fell.

The Fudd jumped out of my pick-up once, when he saw a groundhog. But I was only going about 10mph then. He learned.

I just took her over to the park, and was going to keep her on a leash, but she wasn't having any of it. It's like nothing ever happened.

[hamerfan]

35. "It's like nothing ever happened."

Didn't you know?
Labs Bounce!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbSsQR__bgE

:hi:

[Demeter]

53. I've been trying to forget that movie since I first saw it

now look what you've done! I can hear Burl Ives now...

[Roland99]

33. The PPT must have cushioned her fall

Puppy Protection Team, that is. :)

[TalkingDog]

46. Reminds me of a few of Mr. Spot's adventures as a pup.

I knew when we got him neutered that would calm things down a little. But I didn't expect the vet to be so....forthright when she said: "Having him neutered will make him calmer, however, it won't make him any smarter."






But once it clicked and he figured it out, he was the hardest working dog in show business.
He was a great dog.

[Dr.Phool]

48. The same thing my wife said.

After the vasectomy. It didn't make me any smarter.

[DemReadingDU]

18. Poor doggie

did she have stitches? any internal injuries?
Hope Sara is doing ok now

[girl gone mad]

22. Poor girl!

Think she saw a squirrel?

[Tansy_Gold]

32. Oh, poor baby!!

Better keep the windows up far enough that she can't get out!




TG, dealing with doggie allergies this week-end, among other. . .. things.

[Demeter]

14. The rich get richer

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/7/18/885254/-The-rich-get-richer...?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+dailykos%2Findex+%28Daily+Kos%29&utm_content=My+Yahoo

with reference to Robert Reich's article in the Nation:

Unjust Spoils Robert Reich

http://www.thenation.com/article/36893/unjust-spoils

[girl gone mad]

17. Reich: The Root of Economic Fragility and Political Anger

http://robertreich.org/post/805148061/the-root-of-economic-fragility-and-political-anger">The Root of Economic Fragility and Political Anger
Robert Reich

Missing from almost all discussion of America’s dizzying rate of unemployment is the brute fact that hourly wages of people with jobs have been dropping, adjusted for inflation. Average weekly earnings rose a bit this spring only because the typical worker put in more hours, but June’s decline in average hours pushed weekly paychecks down at an annualized rate of 4.5 percent.

In other words, Americans are keeping their jobs or finding new ones only by accepting lower wages.

Meanwhile, a much smaller group of Americans’ earnings are back in the stratosphere: Wall Street traders and executives, hedge-fund and private-equity fund managers, and top corporate executives. As hiring has picked up on the Street, fat salaries are reappearing. Richard Stein, president of Global Sage, an executive search firm, tells the New York Times corporate clients have offered compensation packages of more than $1 million annually to a dozen candidates in just the last few weeks.

We’re back to the same ominous trend as before the Great Recession: a larger and larger share of total income going to the very top while the vast middle class continues to lose ground.

http://robertreich.org/post/805148061/the-root-of-economic-fragility-and-political-anger">more...

[girl gone mad]

20. It’s the End of the World As We Know It

From http://www.philstockworld.com/2010/07/17/its-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it/">Phil's Stock World:

It’s the End of the World As We Know It
What are 308,367,109 Americans supposed to do?

First of all, despite clamping down on immigration, our population grew by 2.6M people last year. Unfortunately, not only did we not create jobs for those 2.6M new people but we lost about 4M jobs so what are these new people going to do? Not only that, but nobody is talking about the another major job issue: People aren’t retiring! They can’t afford to because the economy is bad - that means there are even less job openings… The pimply-faced kid can’t get a job delivering pizza because his grandpa’s doing it.

There are some brilliant pundits who believe cutting retirement benefits will fix our economy. How will that work exactly? Pay old people less money, don’t cover their medical care and what happens? Then they need money. If they need money, they need to work and if they need to work they increase the supply of labor, which reduces wages and leaves all 308,367,109 of us with less money. Oh sorry, not ALL 308,367,109 - just 308,337,109 - the top 30,000 (0.01%) own the business the other 308,337,109 work at and they will be raking it in because labor is roughly 1/3 of the cost of doing business in America and our great and powerful capitalists have already cut their manufacturing costs by shipping all those jobs overseas, where they pay as little as $1 a day for a human life so now, in order to increase their profits (because profits MUST be increased) they have now turned inward to see what they can shave off in America.

How does one decrease the cost of labor in America? Well first, you have to bust the unions. http://www.chicagoreader.com/chicago/chicago-walmart-low-wages-unions/Content?oid=2043233">Check. Then you have to create a pressing need for people to work - perhaps give them easy access to credit and then get them to go so deeply into debt that they will have to work until they die to pay them off. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-75-trillion-fright-fest-8-megahorror-debts-chilling-the-us">Check. It also helps if you push up the cost of living by manipulating commodity prices. http://case.tm/pubs/commodities.pdf">Check(pdf). Then, take away people’s retirement savings. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/07/AR2008100703358.html">Check. Lower interest rates to make savings futile and interest income inadequate. Check. And finally, threaten to take away the 12% a year that people have been saving for retirement by labeling Social Security an "entitlement" program - as if it wasn’t money Americans worked their whole lives to save and gave to the government in good faith. http://www.mutualfundreporter.com/articles/2009_issues/interestRates20090309.com">Check.

As Allen Smith says: "Ronald Reagan and Alan Greenspan pulled off one of the greatest frauds ever perpetrated against the American people in the history of this great nation, and the underlying scam is still alive and well, more than a quarter century later. It represents the very foundation upon which the economic malpractice that led the nation to the great economic collapse of 2008 was built. Essentially, Reagan switched the federal government from what he critically called, a “tax and spend” policy, to a “borrow and spend” policy, where the government continued its heavy spending, but used borrowed money instead of tax revenue to pay the bills. The results were catastrophic. Although it had taken the United States more than 200 years to accumulate the first $1 trillion of national debt, it took only five years under Reagan to add the second one trillion dollars to the debt. By the end of the 12 years of the Reagan-Bush administrations, the national debt had quadrupled to $4 trillion!"

http://www.philstockworld.com/2010/07/17/its-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it">more...

[ozymandius]

25. "Ronald Reagan and Alan Greenspan pulled off one of the greatest frauds ever.."

"perpetrated against the American people in the history of this great nation..."

Only willful ignorance would attempt to contradict that phrase. I was at a bookstore yesterday and found some frothy saccharine tome about the greatness of Ronald Reagan on the clearance table. Oddly, the bookstore wanted money for this book. And I thought "dead all these years and people are still getting bilked in so many ways from the legacy of this idiotic icon." If I had my Sharpie handy, I would have put a negative sign in front of the price.

[Dr.Phool]

31. Yes it is. REM was ahead of their time.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_eyFiClAzq8

[fasttense]

36. I like his comment about selective defaulting.

I've always wondered why the likes of Pete Peterson have no problem with the US federal government defaulting on the bonds that Social Security holds? I've heard their argument about how it is merely not paying itself. By defaulting on the bonds in Social Security they seem to think it is a wash because it is the government owing the government.

But it is NOT. Those bonds are owed to Social Security recipients. You can say the same thing about all US bonds held by American citizens. So, the US should default on all government bonds held by all American citizens? It's just America owing itself, it's a wash.

[amandabeech]

70. Excellent point about defaulting on SS bonds.

You are right. If the feds default on SS, then they might just as well default on all fed debt held by U.S. citizens and just pay off everybody else.

Peterson is an evil man, and I am very, very unhappy that he has anything to do with the Catfood Commission.

Obama has no excuse whatsoever for the problems that he has unleashed by appointing the Catfood Commission after congress refused to do so.

It is all on Obama's head now.

[girl gone mad]

23. Why The Booming Washington DC Economy Is Really Depressing

Think this might be why they don't get it - or don't want to get it? :eyes:

Why The Booming Washington DC Economy Is Really Depressing

The stimulus may have been too small to save the economy -- at least according to Krugman -- but the expansion of the Federal Government has done wonders for Washington DC.

POLITICO has a new report on the wide disparity between the DC economy and that of the rest of the world. The unemployment rate in the nation's capital is just 6%, well below the national average.

The housing market, boosted by the large number of high-income earners in the area, many working in politics and government, is easily outpacing the markets in most of the country. And there are few signs of economic distress in hotels, restaurants or stores in the D.C. metro area.

As a result, there is a yawning gap between the American people and D.C.’s powerful when it comes to their economic reality — and their economic perceptions.

That DC insiders have a rose-colored view of the national economy isn't the big scandal here.

The scandal is the continuation of dynasty-preserving institutions. Financial industry hiring may have sputtered out, but there's a bright new home for the elite and well-connected just down the Acela.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-booming-washington-dc-economy-is-really-depressing-2010-7#ixzz0u7yiI3Aq

[ozymandius]

26. European stocks gain ahead of Wall Street rise

LONDON – European stock markets rose Monday as investors looked past a downgrade of Ireland's public debt and instead bet on a rebound on Wall Street later after sharp losses last week.

Disappointing data in the U.S., including a plunge in consumer confidence and weak corporate results, suggested the world's biggest economy may be in danger of falling back into recession. That caused massive losses on Wall Street on Friday, but hopes were for a mild rebound on Monday.

Britain's FTSE 100 was up 0.5 percent at 5,185.81 and Germany's DAX was up 0.5 percent at 6,068.53. France's CAC-40 was 0.5 percent higher at 3,517.47.

The increasingly troubled outlook for the U.S. has begun to overshadow fears from Europe's government debt woes, as markets seem to feel the debt crisis has eased ahead of the release of bank stress test results this week.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100719/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[Festivito]

27. Debt: 07/15/2010 13,240,228,521,494.88 (UP 50,722,955,279.05) (Thu)

(Up a lot. Good day.)
Concerts and dancing.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,687,401,404,190.30 + 4,552,827,117,304.58
UP 47,740,634,202.02 + UP 2,982,321,077.03

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,229.14 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,679,747 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,754.58.
A family of three owes $128,263.75. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 7,354,920,067.46.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,393,608,049.47.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 197 reports in 288 days of FY2010 averaging 6.75B$ per report, 4.62B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 920 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/15/2010 13,240,228,521,494.88 BHO (UP 2,613,351,472,581.80 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,330,399,517,983.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,686,096,611,332.75 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/24/2010 -003,383,268,122.91 --
06/25/2010 +000,258,141,060.04 ------------********
06/28/2010 -000,856,644,286.03 --- Mon
06/29/2010 +000,753,506,197.45 ------------********
06/30/2010 +077,231,903,487.92 ------------**********
07/01/2010 -006,671,631,742.50 --
07/02/2010 +000,460,030,174.48 ------------********
07/06/2010 +000,075,213,990.44 ------------******* Tue
07/07/2010 +000,013,416,608.65 ------------*******
07/08/2010 +011,830,915,605.93 ------------**********
07/09/2010 -000,134,583,926.15 ---
07/12/2010 -000,143,600,537.54 --- Mon
07/13/2010 +000,353,392,256.51 ------------********
07/14/2010 +000,197,224,468.53 ------------********
07/15/2010 +047,740,634,202.02 ------------**********

127,724,649,436.84 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4467212&mesg_id=4467244

[Festivito]

65. Debt: 07/16/2010 13,239,903,754,450.73 (DOWN 324,767,044.15) (Fri)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Root canal.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,687,636,130,749.29 + 4,552,267,623,701.44
UP 234,726,558.99 + DOWN 559,493,603.14

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,229.07 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,686,393 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,752.62.
A family of three owes $128,257.85. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 7,586,502,500.95.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,563,435,167.37.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 198 reports in 289 days of FY2010 averaging 6.72B$ per report, 4.60B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 919 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 18.4T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/16/2010 13,239,903,754,450.73 BHO (UP 2,613,026,705,537.65 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,330,074,750,939.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,679,852,194,092.51 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/25/2010 +000,258,141,060.04 ------------********
06/28/2010 -000,856,644,286.03 --- Mon
06/29/2010 +000,753,506,197.45 ------------********
06/30/2010 +077,231,903,487.92 ------------**********
07/01/2010 -006,671,631,742.50 --
07/02/2010 +000,460,030,174.48 ------------********
07/06/2010 +000,075,213,990.44 ------------******* Tue
07/07/2010 +000,013,416,608.65 ------------*******
07/08/2010 +011,830,915,605.93 ------------**********
07/09/2010 -000,134,583,926.15 ---
07/12/2010 -000,143,600,537.54 --- Mon
07/13/2010 +000,353,392,256.51 ------------********
07/14/2010 +000,197,224,468.53 ------------********
07/15/2010 +047,740,634,202.02 ------------**********
07/16/2010 +000,234,726,558.99 ------------********

131,342,644,118.74 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4470413&mesg_id=4470485

[ozymandius]

28. Stock futures higher as earnings heat up

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stock index futures were higher on Monday, indicating the S&P 500 could rebound from its worst one-day drop since June 29 on Friday, as earnings season kicks into high gear.

Investors have scoured quarterly earnings for clues on the strength of the economic recovery in light of flagging economic data. On Friday, U.S. stocks slid after dismal consumer sentiment data and anemic revenues from GE (GE.N) and two big banks.

This week, 12 Dow components and 122 S&P 500 companies are set to report quarterly results.

S&P 500 futures rose 3.6 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures gained 39 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 8.25 points.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100719/bs_nm/us_markets_stocks

[Roland99]

40. markets are flat as a pancake at 11am. The summer doldrums.

[ozymandius]

29. Its the Law, Bitches!

Fist pounding table on Goldman Sachs settlement of the SEC civil case charges -

By Barry Ritholtz - July 19th, 2010, 7:30AM

Spin isn’t fact, opinions aren’t laws, and having an opinion is not the same as being informed.

One might hope that various folks discussing these issues have a passing familiarity with Securities law, but apparently not. Let’s see if we can edumacate some folks who are unfamiliar with the 1933 and 1934 Security acts.

1) Its the Law, Bitches!: First and foremost, this is a legal issue: It is not a philosophical debate, a political question, or a case of ethical transgressions; It is not even an investing question.

Here is the classic legal syllogism: Understand the relevant law, apply the facts to that law, draw your conclusion. And the relevant law?

2) Securities Exchange Act of 1934:

Since this is a legal case, what say we actually look at the law?

“It shall be unlawful for any person, directly or indirectly to make any untrue statement of a material fact or to omit to state a material fact . . . engage in any act, practice, or course of business which operates or would operate as a fraud or deceit upon any person, in connection with the purchase or sale of any security.”

-Rule 10b-5, Securities Exchange Act of 1934 *

Bottom line: IMO, this was a no brainer case based on these facts and the law. Unless you can show Fab never said those things, it is case closed.

THAT is why Goldman settled.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/its-the-law-bitches/

---

This is a long post that addresses many salient issues surrounding the Goldman Sachs/ Fabulous Fab case. Go now and read.

[Dr.Phool]

34. There's no such thing as law anymore.

When you can run scams 24 hours a day, screw everyone in sight, including the government. Pay minuscule fines on a fraction of the take, with other peoples money, and never, ever have to worry about so much as a perp walk, let alone jail time, there is no law.

When the only guy who gets caught is a guy like Bernie Madoff, who stands up and tells you "Hey, look at me, I'm a crook, and here's what I did and how I did it". There is no law.

Something has to break soon. We'll either become a complete fascist corporate state, or we'll have a revolution. And I don't see people turning off the TV to take up arms.

[Demeter]

55. When the TV is Repossessed, Then

Not much longer...

[DemReadingDU]

61. For my spouse, no more fast food

I swear, his car must have a super magnet that pulls him towards every McDonalds, TacoBell, and vending machine

[ozymandius]

41. Goldman settlement won't help earnings

On Tuesday, Wall Street's most-gilded firm will report its second-quarter results. Analysts however, have been dramatically cutting forecasts for Goldman Sachs in recent weeks amid concerns that the combination of market volatility and economic tremors will hurt profits.

And while Goldman (GS, Fortune 500) has taken part in several key initial public offerings recently, including that of electric car maker Tesla Motors (TSLA) and exchange operator CBOE Holdings (CBOE), investment banking activity remains sluggish.

What could weigh on Goldman's results even further is Goldman's proposed $550 million settlement with the SEC. Analysts expect the company to take a charge this quarter for the full amount. That would be about 92 cents a share, according to FBR's Stelmach.

Some analysts have suggested that Goldman could be among the hardest hit by changes to derivatives trading and the so-called "Volcker rule", which would limit how much banks can invest in private equity and hedge funds.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/19/news/companies/goldman_sachs_preview/index.htm

[Snotcicles]

38. Watch ARNA for awhile this could get interesting. nt

[Po_d Mainiac]

45. Won't need diet drugs with chocolate priced too the moon

[Snotcicles]

63. up again. nt

[Po_d Mainiac]

66. Not buying anything with neg P/E

Esp. when the CEO is pocketing 10% of gross. A rumor can run this dog under a loaded semi. :puke:

Leave the stock pumping to pimps like Cramer

[Snotcicles]

69. What? nt

[Snotcicles]

71. up again. nt

[girl gone mad]

44. Unemployment Surges To 14.2% -- Too Bad Everyone Can't Move To DC And Get Think Tank Jobs

Nevada Unemployment Surges To 14.2% -- Too Bad Everyone Can't Move To DC And Get Think Tank Jobs

We were just talking about Nevada, and now we have some data to emphasize the fact that the depression continues in the former boom state.

According to KLAS-TV, the statewide unemployment rate just jumped from 14.1% to 14.2%. Las Vegas unemployment is at 14.5%

Thus, we revisit Matthew Yglessias of the Center For American Progress, who wrote:

I think a neglected part of the labor market adjustment story is the geographical rigidities imposed by aspects of human nature and the housing market. There are enormous disparities in the unemployment rate from metro area to metro area that underscore the fact that our labor market is not perfectly integrated. Ask yourself why everyone doesn’t just leave greater Las Vegas, where unemployment is 14.1 percent, and move to the DC area where it’s only 6 percent. There are plenty of reasons, some we could (and should) try to remediate and some we probably can’t. But they make it difficult for modest growth to translate into maximum employment gains quickly.

To get an economic recovery in Nevada, we apparently need to two steps. First, housing prices need to appreciate to the point where people can move again. Then we need to get all these folks trained so they can have cush DC think tank jobs. Problem solved.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/nevada-unemployment-surges-to-142-too-bad-everyone-cant-move-to-dc-and-get-think-tank-jobs-2010-7#ixzz0u98BhBOO

[TalkingDog]

47. An interesting story from the weekend: Somebody has cornered the Cocoa Market in EU

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/7895242/Mystery-trader-buys-all-Europes-cocoa.html

The Spousal Unit thinks it's a test run with a non-vital commodity.....

I say 5 hundred million is a little pricey for a test run. Of course, now that they've spiked the price, they can just turn around and sell it and make a tidy profit.

[Po_d Mainiac]

54. Non vital commodity?

See my post above....This is catastrophic!
:nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke:
:scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared:

[DemReadingDU]

62. Chocolate: four basic food groups

“There are four basic food groups: milk chocolate, dark chocolate, white chocolate and chocolate truffles.”

I gotta buy me a stash of all these food groups, before the price escalates.
:evilgrin:

[TalkingDog]

51. From The New York Observer: The New Doom

Hmmm...seems like somebody is finally taking the hint.....

And yet, they still get to keep all that money.


http://www.observer.com/2010/wall-street/new-doom


"Life is such a fucking disaster," a prominent New York hedge fund manager said recently. "We all live in some kind of world we create for ourselves. And I think that what happened is that built into that world were very enlarged expectations about what life was going to be. There's been this sensation of excessive expectation that, frankly, became unsustainable."

snip

Last week, not very far from the hedge fund manager's ranch, the billionaire John Malone gave a little-noticed interview to The Wall Street Journal from Allen & Co.'s annual Sun Valley conference. Asked about the biggest risks to Liberty, his media conglomerate, Mr. Malone said his concern was this country's survival. "We have a retreat that's right on the Quebec border. We own 18 miles on the border, so we can cross. Anytime we want to, we can get away."

His wife is more concerned: She's already moved her personal cash to Australia and Canada. "She wants to have a place to go," said Mr. Malone, No. 400 on this year's Forbes list of the richest people in the world, "if things blow up here."
Before the financial crisis, furious pessimism about the national economy started with a small and mostly scholarly group of doomsayers, like N.Y.U.'s Nouriel Roubini and Yale's Robert Shiller. But that pessimism has now gone mainstream, spreading from wonks in finance to the city's daily conversation as last year's rebound drifts further away. Growth is slow; unemployment is enormous; the world feels sludgy. It won't help if banks post withered profits later this week, as they're expected to.

[Demeter]

58. The About-Face on “Audit the Fed” Legislation By Rocky Vega

http://dailyreckoning.com/the-about-face-on-audit-the-fed-legislation/

The Senate has passed financial reform legislation, but, for now, a full audit of the Fed will not be included. The lackluster outcome is at least partly due to the fact that 114 House members that originally co-sponsored the HR 1207 plan then flip-flopped later in the process and voted against it.

In the video below Dr. Ron Paul describes the letdown, yet he also highlights a bright side…

“…More people in this country than ever before know that the Federal Reserve is very, very important, they were responsible for the problems we have and they know that they work in secrecy, the American people want to know about it… what they’re doing is going to be devastating to us because this piece of legislation actually gave more power to the Federal Reserve, not less… we will keep the heat on the Fed until we get an honest monetary system.”

You can see the Hall of Shame video below, as well as a list here:

http://www.campaignforliberty.com/materials/HR1207-Shame-List.pdf

which came to our attention via The Daily Bail:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3J1TZAryPs&feature=player_embedded

[Demeter]

59. Buy a Greek Island Retreat--Tomorrow!

http://dailyreckoning.com/8-days-left-until-greece-raids-the-island-estates-of-its-wealthiest-citizens/

...Desperate times call for desperate measures and, to get the money it’s owed, the tax authorities will start taking over and selling the Aegean island estates owned by its most affluent, but not tax-compliant, citizens.

According to The Scotsman: http://news.scotsman.com/world/Debtridden-Greece-gets-tough-on.6412263.jp

“Finance ministry checks showed 990 people who owed more than 6.7 million euros in taxes owned a total of 2,917 real estate assets on the scenic islands of Mykonos and Santorini, worth more than 288 million euros. The ministry gave tax dodgers until July 20 to settle their debts.

“‘After this deadline, there will be urgent procedures of forced payment, including auctions,’ it said in a statement. Greece has pledged to improve its dismal tax collection record as part of a mammoth 110-billion euro bailout by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

“Tax evasion, particularly by well-off citizens such as doctors and lawyers, is rampant in Greece. Estimates on the size of the shadow economy range between 10 to 30 per cent of GDP.”

If Greece is the harbinger of what’s to come in an overly-indebted US, it’s worth paying attention to how this threat turns out. The US has already taken to executing tax punishment deadlines on wealthy citizens who have used tax shelters in Switzerland. As the deficit and debt situation gets worse it won’t be a surprise to see the US get on this same Greek-style bandwagon and continue escalating its tax enforcement measures domestically.

[snot]

67. Like, making the rich pay what they legally owe (which is less than their fair share) is

an extreme measure.

[ozymandius]

60. If you have not read this Kos diary then do yourself a favor and go read it.

Why the economy isn't recovering
by gjohnsit

There are two primary reasons why the economy isn't recovering, one reason is cyclical, the other is secular.

---

Forget the political spin. Forget the happy-talk, bullsh*t from talking heads on financial news shows. Forget all the distractions and focus on the most important point about our economy: how we got here.

Plain and simple, what got us here was the credit cycle, and until that credit cycle is played out we are not going to have a recovery no matter how many tax cuts and stimulus packages are created. Period. End of story.

The economy is overloaded with bad debts that will never be paid. The government stepped in to stop the collapse of these asset values in order to save the banking system that made the stupid loans. This transferred some of the bad private debt to public pockets. The bad debt didn't go away, it merely changed locations. The economy is still burdened with it.

It is for this reason why the Cash4Klunkers program and the Federal Home Tax Credit were so ineffective as stimulus. The programs merely induced consumers to go more heavily into debt by buying overpriced assets.

The only way the economy can move on and start growing again is if: a) the debt is paid off, or b) the debt is defaulted on.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/7/19/885573/-Why-the-economy-isnt-recovering

---

This is an important point. The diarist states through his description of the current "Minsky Moment" we now experience that there are no natural markets anymore for debt. Any new debt program that is created now as a stimulus vehicle will fail. No matter how many are created, the end result will be failure. But chin-up. There is a solution to the issues we now face: legitimate default. Solon did it 2600 years ago with staggeringly successful benefits for the greater population. Default has been regular practice in the economic history of our own country.

I will, of course, post this tomorrow when the morning crew can offer comments.

[DemReadingDU]

64. There is too much debt to be paid off

The massive global debt will never be paid off. So we default. We've been living in a huge Ponzi, and Ponzis always implode.

Good luck to us all, because we are all going to need it.
:(

[snot]

68. thx.

[Roland99]

72. edit...uh...what the....

n/m :)