Feds: Test results from well not as good as hoped

[IScreamSundays]

Source: Yahoo

By COLLEEN LONG and HARRY R. WEBER, Associated Press Writers – 5 mins ago
NEW ORLEANS – The federal pointman for the BP oil spill says results are short of ideal in the new cap but the oil will stay shut in for another 6 hours at least. Retired Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen said on a Friday afternoon conference pressure readings from the cap have not reached the level that would show there are no other leaks in the well.

He said the test will go ahead for another 6-hour period before being reassessed to see if BP needs to reopen the cap and let oil spill out again.

NEW ORLEANS (AP) — BP said its capped-off well appeared to be holding steady Friday as a white-knuckle waiting period ticked by with engineers watching pressure gauges for signs of a leak.

Results monitored from control rooms on ships at sea and hundreds of miles away at the company's U.S. headquarters in Houston showed the oil staying inside the cap, rather than escaping through any undiscovered breaches, BP PLC vice president Kent Wells said on a morning conference call.


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Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100716/ap_on_bi_ge/us_gulf_oil_spill

[LiberalLoner]

1. Oh, crap. :( n/t

[Oregone]

2. If there are other leaks...where are they?

[DURHAM D]

4. Down hole about 1000 feet. nt

[Oregone]

5. This is why we should of nuked it

Not to solve it or some shit. Just to show it who's boss

[DURHAM D]

7. oh yeah - that would have worked

NOT

[Dr.Phool]

10. Finally. An excuse that makes sense.

[texastoast]

3. I'm guessing the field has depleted

Certainly had the opportunity.

[Oregone]

6. Ill be pissed if it turns tail and runs before we are done kickn its ass

Thats not the American way. We win...we don't tie.

[rzemanfl]

8. Then wouldn't the oily geyser of death have slowed down a

little over the past 80 some days? I sure didn't see that happening.

[texastoast]

13. I don't know the output volume changes

It might have depleted enough to cause the pressure changes they are seeing. But if depletion is not it, where are the other leaks? And why is there a question about their location?

I haven't kept up enough every day to understand it altogether.

[rzemanfl]

28. I note that this morning our local news sources posits your

theory. Regardless of merit one way or the other, it sounds much better to tourists than "there might be another leak."

[DCBob]

11. or partially depleted.. at least enough to lower the pressure..

that would certainly explain the numbers they are seeing.

[DCBob]

17. BP official used the term depletion just a few moments ago in a conf call with the media..

If true then these lower pressure readings would be normal. They may just have this thing finally under control.

[yava]

22. if there is such measurable depletion in a huge reservoir..

behind the pressure drop, it tells you clearly that much more oil (and gas) has been released than admitted.
This, and its financial consequences for BP and Gov info would explain the hesitations and counter-expertise.

[DCBob]

23. I think that may very well be true..

but we may never know for sure.

[Psephos]

19. Not even close.

Best estimates I've seen from industry professionals at The Oil Drum say perhaps 5% of the reservoir has run out.

Of course, these are estimates, not measurements.

[texastoast]

21. Was this well drilled

into one big formation? Some of the Saudi wells are drilled into one ginormous cavern filled with oil and the oil is way easy to get to. If there are multiple oil-containing formations within the field, we might catch a break. I don't know.

[DCBob]

24. Sounds like depletion to me..

Well pressure continued to rise very slowly Friday evening — about 2 pounds per square inch every hour — and was 6,720 psi by early evening, BP Senior Vice President Kent Wells said in a conference call. That's lower than the 7,500-plus psi figure BP and government officials initially said would be a sure sign the well was sound. But there are a number of possible explanations.

The well's initial pressure may be depleted after nearly three months of unobstructed well flow.

The oil and gas bearing formation might have partially collapsed and restricted flow under the increased pressure when the last valve was closed.

Or, in the worst scenario, there could be small leaks in the well casing — the piping that runs from the wellhead to the reservoir. Concern that the casing might be compromised caused BP to abandon an earlier attempt to plug the well through a procedure called a top kill.

Barring any obvious signs of a leak, the company plans to continue monitoring at least until early Saturday afternoon, 48 hours after it shut the well in. Then, keeping the well closed "is a possibility," Wells said, as is reopening it and sending oil and gas to the surface until a nearly complete relief well can kill the well for good.

Monitoring of the sea floor for leaks with remote controlled submarines and acoustic devices has increased, while a science vessel able to detect small volumes of methane that may leak from the well is moving into place.

Wells sounded cautiously optimistic.

"The pressure building up we are seeing is consistent with models of reservoir depletion and full well integrity," Wells said.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/7112346.html

[Psephos]

25. It can't be anywhere near depleted if the reservoir estimates are accurate.

An average daily leak rate of 60,000 bbl/d fits consensus estimates. Could perhaps be half or double that, depends on who you ask. However, it's not likely to be outside of that range.

The Macondo reservoir holds at least 50 million barrels of oil, or about 2.1 billion gallons, according to recent Congressional testimony by BP’s chief executive, Tony Hayward. This would be enough to allow the well to continue to gush at a rate of 60,000 barrels per day – the government’s upper range of the well’s current flow – for another two years.

Yet how precise Mr. Hayward’s estimate might be is another question entirely. This month, Tony Odone, a top BP spokesman, told The Guardian newspaper that the company had not made an assessment of the reserves before the well blew out.

“You start evaluating the reservoir once you complete the well,” Mr. Odone said. “Obviously, we didn’t get to that point.” And independent scientists, observing the tremendous flow rate of the well, have suggested that the reservoir could be far, far greater than 50 million barrels.

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/28/reporter-answers-questions-about-the-spill/

For more technical discussions of reservoir size, go to TheOilDrum.com and search for "Macondo Reservoir".

For a strong discussion of deepwater well pressure issues and engineering, see this page:

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/6526

A competent discussion on the new cap and what the test regime may be showing can be found here:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6737

[DCBob]

26. It does not have to be fully depleted to have reduced pressure..the hole is at the top..

not the bottom. BP and many industry experts are now using the term so I guess its possible.

[DCBob]

9. This may not be crisis.. its just the pressure is not rising as fast as they expected.

As long as they dont see oil seeping from the ground or around the well hole then I dont think there's a problem. They may have just midjudged the rate of pressure increase.

[thereismore]

12. Or maybe the oil is percolating through the rock in all directions. nt

[DCBob]

14. Possibly, but if its contained in cracks and pores and does not reach the surface..

then its not a problem.. imo.

[Bobbieo]

15. Why would this come as a surprise to anyone?

[Oregone]

16. Uh, because the Invisible Hand of Capitalism gave His only Begotten mystery plumber son to fix this

First you must understand the mystery plumber is a mere incarnation of the Invisible Hand, and not a separate entity in himself. You people never listen!

[zeemike]

18. I am listening...and I believe in that invisible hand.

I have a shrine in my bathroom to it.

[Psephos]

20. The plan all along has not been to cap it, but to let it flow through a capture pipe to a ship.

They're pressure testing now to get an idea of what damage exists down hole. They want to know that if a hurricane arises, they can shut the well down for a few days without wrecking things. If the pressure doesn't rise to an expected value, it may show that the casing is ruptured, and oil is leaking into surrounding rocks. They want to avoid that at nearly any cost.

After the pressure tests, the plan is to produce the well through a pipe to the surface (i.e., let the oil flow, and capture it into a recovery ship). If the down-hole casings hold, the capture should approach 100%. This new cap is only a temporary measure until the relief well is completed. That is the permanent solution. If successful, it will be the end of the leak for good.

Currently, the relief well is within five feet of the original bore, and a few hundred feet above the point where the intersection is planned. Remember, at the intersection depth, the pipe inside the well bore is just 7 inches in diameter. They're taking a lot of measurements with magnetometers and other gear to ensure a clean hit. That intersection point is close to three miles down in solid rock.

[DCBob]

27. Actually it starting to sound like now they may just leave it "shut in"..

Barring any obvious signs of a leak, the company plans to continue monitoring at least until early Saturday afternoon, 48 hours after it shut the well in. Then, keeping the well closed "is a possibility," Wells said, as is reopening it and sending oil and gas to the surface until a nearly complete relief well can kill the well for good.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/7112346.html