STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday July 15

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday July 15, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 14, 2010

Dow... 10,366.72 +3.70 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq... 2,249.84 +7.81 (+0.35%)
S&P 500... 1,095.17 -0.17 (-0.02%)
Gold future... 1,214 +6.50 (+0.54%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.04 -0.01 (-0.23%)
30-Year Bond 4.02 -0.02 (-0.50%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Videos:
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    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 07/10
Briefing.com 430K
Consensus 450K
Prior 454K

08:30 Continuing Claims 07/03
Briefing.com 4450K
Consensus 4400K
Prior 4413K

08:30 PPI Jun
Briefing.com -0.1%
Consensus -0.1%
Prior -0.3%

08:30 Core PPI Jun
Briefing.com 0.0%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior 0.2%

08:30 NY Fed - Empire Manufacturing Index July
Briefing.com 19.0
Consensus 18.0
Prior 19.57

09:15 Industrial Production Jun
Briefing.com -0.2%
Consensus 0.0%
Prior 1.3%

09:15 Capacity Utilization Jun
Briefing.com 74.1%
Consensus 74.2
Prior 74.1%

10:00 Philadelphia Fed Jul
Briefing.com 10
Consensus 10.1
Prior 8.0

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[BootinUp]

9. Those "inflation" numbers are scary low. nt.

[ozymandius]

11. Please bear in mind that these are projections.

However, I agree that these projected numbers are low. One thing that colors this forecast is the strength of the US dollar. It has been strong against other major currencies over the past quarter. That would ding inflation on imports.

[ozymandius]

2. Oil rises above $77 amid mixed US demand signals

LONDON – Oil prices rose above $77 a barrel Thursday in Europe amid mixed signals about the strength of U.S. crude demand.

Oil has traded between $70 and $80 this month as investors ponder how much a pullback of government stimulus spending could undermine global economic growth and crude demand in the second half.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve gave a bearish signal by lowering its 2010 gross domestic product forecast by 0.2 percentage points to a range of 3.0 percent to 3.5 percent, suggesting Europe's debt and fiscal crisis could undermine expansion of the world's No. 1 economy.

On the other hand, crude prices were supported by the weekly inventories report from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration on Wednesday, which showed crude supplies shrank more than analysts had forecast, a sign demand may be improving.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Dollar drops against euro, yen on poor US data

LONDON (AFP) – The dollar dropped against the euro and yen on Thursday, hit by weak US economic data and a worsening outlook for the world's biggest economy, dealers said.

The euro rose to 1.2803 dollars in morning trading here, up from 1.2736 dollars in New York late on Wednesday.

Against the Japanese currency, the dollar fell to 88.03 yen from 88.37 yen on Wednesday.

Concerns about the US economy grew a day after government data showed retail sales had fallen more than expected in June for a second straight month.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100715/bs_afp/forexeurope

[ozymandius]

4. Fed Lowers Targets For '10 GDP Growth — Still Too Upbeat?

The Federal Reserve trimmed its growth forecasts while Wednesday's retail sales and other reports showed the economy slowed heading into the second half of the year.

The central bank said the economy will grow 3%-3.5% this year vs. its prior forecast of 3.2%-3.7%, according to newly released minutes from the June 22-23 policy meeting. GDP growth in 2011 is seen at 3.5%-4%, down from 3.4%-4.5%.

Policymakers "expected the recovery to continue and inflation to remain subdued," but that the economic outlook had "softened somewhat," the minutes stated.

The report raised fears that consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of economic activity, will not be able to power the recovery.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ibd/20100714/bs_ibd_ibd/540401

[ozymandius]

6. US Fed weighs new measures as recovery falters

WASHINGTON (AFP) – The Federal Reserve revealed it was weighing new measures to keep the faltering US recovery on track Wednesday, warning jobs and growth will be tougher to regain than expected.

The warning -- contained in the minutes of the Fed's June meeting -- fueled concerns that the United States faces tough times for years to come.

But with interest rates at all-time lows, experts say the Fed has few tools at its disposal.

Analysts said the Fed's language did not necessarily spell a repetition of that policy, but was a clear message that reversing crisis-era policies will come later rather than sooner.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100714/pl_afp/useconomyfinancebankrate

[florida08]

26. no chit

while congressional republicans do the wave

[BootinUp]

32. KeyWester where are you? nt

[Dr.Phool]

40. The last time I looked....

He was on ignore.

[BootinUp]

46. But we need someone to

talk up this economy, about how the recession and our worries are over...

[Roland99]

5. Great toon. Fitting in comparison to this

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8749680

Kinda like letting the doctor that amputated the wrong limb be the deciding vote on whether the doc and the hospital are liable.



*sigh*


Way to go, O. Yet Another Sellout To Corporate Masters.

[ozymandius]

7. Gaaaaaaaaaah!!

I doubt Ms. Fowler had a sudden epiphany towards altruism. What the hell is this shit? This is like embedding a lobbyist in your administration who has other lobbyists on speed dial. Together they create public policy.

Outrageous!

[Roland99]

16. Ah, but remember, ozy. Change happens slowly, eh? Obama knows what he's doing.

:banghead:


:eyes:

[Demeter]

42. Careful! That's Called Criminal Liability

What he needs is plausible Deniability!

[Roland99]

47. ain't nothin' plausible in ANY of his defenses, imho.

[AnneD]

31. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. This is one reason why I call the health care reform bullshit. It isn't true reform unless the ins.co. are screaming bloody murder. They wrote the reform in question and I refuse to be surprised at their choice. It was a shake down, just like the credit card reform. The only thing I find surprising is the blatant corruption, the transparent conflict of interest and the general publics lack of outrage. Who slipped Soma in the water.

It is a busy day today, so this is a drive by post. Good luck at the casinos.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Po_d Mainiac]

8. page 3

"1. Enable trillions of dollars in mortgages guaranteed to default then packaging unlimited quantities of them into mortgage-backed securities (MBS), aftercreating unlimited demand for fraudulently originated loans."
Note: I took the liberty of inserting a couple words (italics) to clean up the language.
……………………
I can only think of a couple ways a lot “money” can be created out of thin air. Real estate and stocks.
……………………
The enabling and demand was accomplished by several means. And these are not listed in order of importance. They are all a “Big F**king Deal”

1) The total lack of enforcement of the fraud being perpetrated at the ground level. Appraisals All it takes is a couple registered sales in a neighborhood to establish a baseline for all future appraisals. If a house on the block sells for $30K more than it did 5 years ago, all the similar dwellings are suddenly worth $30K more. If that appraisal was gamed similar to the scenario on Page 1 a “bubble” was created. This also established the near “unlimited” market because the scam ran from border to border, and coast to coast.


2) Establish interest rates so low that it discourages putting savings in a bank, but keep money flowing freely to fuel the inflation engine (this is big) Misters Greenscum and Bumhanky have certainly done their part. Keeping this going for an extended period of time created the “thirst” for better paying investments. All the MBS’s and SDO’s in the world ain’t worth squat, unless there are willing buyers. This step did both enable, and help create demand

3) Conventional community based banking requires seed money from savings accounts and bond sales, (which also require savers) in order to lend. Due to savers being AWOL, another money stream needed to be created. Enter the Public-private Partnerships (P3) Fannie and Freddie.
NOTE: Fannie has been around for about 80 years but pretty much dealt with securitizing FHA, VA & FmHA guaranteed paper. Freddie since 1970.
The “Banking Reform” stuff that happened in the early–mid 80’s expanded their roles into the rest of the mainstream residential and commercial markets.
Fannie and Freddie get to “borrow” from the Fed
In other words, the Fed could feed the RE frenzy, or squash it at will. Mister Greenscum went all in, and really outdid himself playing this hand. I’m thinking the testimony before the congress critters where he saw “no danger from the sub-prime RE crash to the rest of the economy” (or something close to those words)…when it turned out, damn near the whole RE market at that point was sub-prime

4) Get banks all liquored up with legalized loan sharking and trashed usury statutes via credit card income

IMHO The plastic phenom was just a dry-run for the RE ramp and pillage. Banksters now knew how far the sheeple would allow their financial asses to get kicked…In fact they could see no end. No wonder the birth rate dropped, people didn’t need real sex. They could screw themselves with a plastic card.

The credit card also allowed Shiti, Crapital on One, Bank of A’holes, etc. to suck off a chunk of the retail market (stuff like food, tampons, beer and toilet paper) without ever stocking a shelf.

This also put the average overleveraged consumer in no position to afford a mortgage.
……………………..
Mdme Gold, are you now comfortable with item #1 of Mr. Smiths essay? If not use caution with your questions.

[ozymandius]

10. I know a former appraiser.

He worked the coastal gulf regions of Florida, Alabama and Mississippi. The pressure to keep appraisals high, in harmony with unrealistic appraisals, was intense. Should anyone appraise the value of a 2BR/1BA shack with a leaky roof, cracked foundation in the middle of nowhere at $34k rather than $134k - then he would not get repeat business.

And so it goes: Create money out of nothing. Overextend the borrower. Get out of the way when the knife falls.

[Tansy_Gold]

19. You know appraiser #1 is crooked

when you make an offer of $368,500 on a property listed at $405,000 and the appraisal comes back at $368,500 at the height of the bubble. (It's currently on the market again, with about $50-75,000 in repairs and improvements, for $170,000.)


You know appraiser #2 is REALLY crooked when he uses the $368,500 appraisal (on a house that never sold) as a comparable for a similar but unfinished house in the same neighborhood a year into the collapse.



TG, stalling

[Po_d Mainiac]

21. That "If I don't do it, someone else will"

Crap is a real lame argument. Where do you draw the line?

CNBC did a pretty series a couple years ago called "The House of Cards." That same statement came up through-out. Appraisors, mortgage brokers, bankers and buyers. The speed in which the housing market collapsed was spectacular. That it collapsed nation-wide is unprecedented.

When no one plays by the rules, the game will end in an ugly brawl..YMMV

[Tansy_Gold]

18. I've been swamped -- with work

My apologies for not getting back into the fray yesterday, and I'll probably be scarce today as well. Shit happens. hoocoodanode? :-(

I will, however, attest to the veracity of #1, because that was how Charlie Keating did it with Lincoln Savings. I worked there for almost a year after the collapse, after the govt. had moved in with Resolution Trust Corp to liquidate what they could of his "empire."

In simplified form, it worked like this:

Developer, who also happens to either be or own a bank, acquires "vacant" farm land for $1,000/acre, say 5,000 acres, at 10% down. That's a $500,000 investment on a $5 million "asset."

Friend of developer, using developer's money, buys a small portion of that 5,000 acres for $5,000/acre. The $5 million is now "worth" $25 million, of which $20 million is instantaneous "equity" which can be used to borrow more funds from the "bank" the developer already and very conveniently owns. If the developer and the banker are one and the same, those borrowed funds can be lent on unsecured loans to family members for just about anything, including to fund a lavish lifestyle. Trips to Europe and wages paid to servants are not subject to repossession even in bankruptcy.


I suspect -- because I don't have detailed personal knowledge -- that many of the savings and loan collapses of the late 80s and early 90s (that would be under raygun & boooosh I) were accomplished in similar fashion.


#2, however, is one that I never really gave much thought to, and I don't think it's received nearly enough attention. THANK YOU, Po_d, for pointing this one out. See, I told you you were writing a book! :applause: Combine this with the push to IRAs (no employer contribution, low interest rates) and 401k plans (employer contribution, higher return in stocks) and you get even more bleeding from the productive classes.




Okay, and now the paid work calls -- or screams -- and I have to run. I will check in later, I hope, when more time is available.


TG, NTY

[hamerfan]

23. This.

"Combine this with the push to IRAs (no employer contribution, low interest rates) and 401k plans (employer contribution, higher return in stocks) and you get even more bleeding from the productive classes."
It's all rigged in my opinion, and it's all rigged against the "little people" who don't have the power or pull or friends in high places to prevent it.
I don't have any answers, I just won't be surprised when it all comes tumbling down.
hamerfan

[Roland99]

25. just a side note to a side note to #2....

re: 401(k) contributions.

Many companies have stopped their matching contributions. That leaves the employee without that nice 100% automatic return and left to, essentially, index funds.

[Po_d Mainiac]

29. Good point, and one reason for

crap volume in equities and the net withdrawal of several hundred billion $ this year alone. ..80% of all trades are now HFT's......

[Roland99]

36. The house is now the bettor, too.

[Po_d Mainiac]

44. Plans that give an employee a choice

Often include a money market account and bond accounts. (short, mid, and long term)

If there is any employer contribution MM is a sure means to built your retirement savings in these troubled times. Bond accounts can be gut wrenching, and are often subject to fluctuations in equities.

There is also that little thing about contributions being pre-tax, which may or may not have an impact on April 15.

[Po_d Mainiac]

28. A similar fraud that I got personal with

Early in 1984, James McDougal of Madison Guaranty S&L, Sheffield Nelson, a Little Rock attorney, and Jerry Jones, owner of the Dallas Cowboys joined together in a real estate speculation involving the development of a retirement resort on Campobello Island. (The same Island that FDR frequented)

The front deep-water lots sold for something like $225K and the bank used those figures to price all the lots on their books. Even the rear parcels that couldn't even smell the ocean, let alone see it.

Patten Corp. had a smaller scale sub-division on the Cutler, Me. side of the bay. The end lot was 5.18 acres with 2200ft of frontage that varied from deep anchorage to clam flats. Seals would lounge on a ledge at low tide, and the view was to die for.

3 gents from Massachusetts bought it as an "investment" for $218K putting up their Boston area homes as collateral. The price was based/appraised on Madison's parcel, not reality. The Boston RE market got a case of diarrhea in 86-87 and the lending bank made a margin call. A liquidation arm of now defunct Patten ended up with the deed. Property taxes were sucking cash faster than appraisals were falling. (Lubec's mill rate was $27/$1,000, and the assessed value was based on the last stamped sale price of $218K) Over the coarse of a year I watched the advertised price go from $218K to $89K.

My wife and I tossed out an offer of $44K knowing there was an outstanding tax lien for $8500. The closing happened 5 days later.

ps...had every intention of building, but got a letter in 06 asking if we wanted to sell. The response was no..The next letter included a bid price....Someone else is paying the taxes on it now.

[ozymandius]

12. European stock markets rise amid mixed data

LONDON (AFP) – Europe's main stock markets rallied at around mid-day on Thursday, pulling back from opening losses, as investors digested mixed economic data from around the world.

London's benchmark FTSE 100 index of top companies edged up 0.07 percent to 5,256.66 points, Frankfurt's DAX 30 rose 0.24 percent to 6,223.03 points and the Paris CAC 40 climbed 0.21 percent in value to reach 3,617.37.

The Stoxx 50 index of top eurozone shares advanced 0.10 percent to 2,741.87 points.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100715/bs_afp/stockseurope

[ozymandius]

13. SEC eyes changes to shareholder voting system

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Securities regulators on Wednesday weighed whether to change voting in corporate elections, amid calls from companies and some investors to fix a system they consider antiquated.

The Securities and Exchange Commission asked the public to comment on changes to the voting system, including whether companies need more information about the identity of their shareholders.

The SEC issued a discussion paper to examine the accuracy and transparency of the voting process, shareholder participation and the relationship between voting power and economic interest.

The agency is exploring whether rules are needed for proxy advisory firms and how to get more shareholders to participate in the governance of their companies.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100714/bs_nm/us_sec_voting

[ozymandius]

14. LIES DIVIDE, TRUTH UNITES by Dylan Ratigan

The good news in America today is that many of lies from our leaders and media no longer seem to be working. Four out of five people view the current proposed financial reform as ineffectual. Many in Congress who voted for socialism for the rich now look like they will be voted out for continuing those giveaways.

Now the only way those Banksters can survive is to pretend that their corporate communism is working even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Most recently, they decided that instead of taxing complicit financial institutions the cost of their “Financial Reform-In-Name-Only“, they will instead use what I call the Big Tarp Lie to pander for the vote of Senator Scott Brown and others.

Never mind the money that these same banks make getting endless 0% interest loans from the Federal Reserve (aka You) while either they lend it back to you at 14% or just lend it right to back the government and pocket the yield. Never mind the multitude of benefits they get from being Too Big Too Fail. But you’re not supposed to pay attention to that; you’re only supposed to notice how fast they paid back TARP!

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/lies-divide-truth-unites/

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This is a righteous screed. Go read it.

[Demeter]

43. From his lips to God's Ears

Throw the mongrels out!

[ozymandius]

15. You folks have a nice day.

:donut:
Time for me to prepare for the last full day on the Georgia coast. I'll see you tomorrow if I'm not eaten by an alligator.

:hi:

[Roland99]

20. Makes one wonder....

To an alligator, would ozy taste like chicken?



:-)

[Po_d Mainiac]

22. Spend like a drunken sailor while you're on the road trip

The nation is depending on it.
:hide:

[TalkingDog]

37. As long as you don't copycat the yahoo who jumped

into a pen at the alligator zoo and decided to try and ride one......well, needless to say, hilarity ensued.

They showed him being wheeled of the hospital with his leg bandaged from hip to ankle....

[Roland99]

17. Index Futures - Shining like a "Dimon"

S&P 500 1,097 +5.60 +0.51%
DOW 10,352 +46.00 +0.45%
NASDAQ 1,860 +8.75 +0.47%


J.P. Morgan profit surges 76% as loan loss reserve shrinks
Bank takes $550 million charge to cover U.K. bonus tax
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jp-morgan-chase-earnings-surge-76-2010-07-15?dist=beforebell

[Roland99]

24. Commentary: Investors shouldn't be fooled by another breakout

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-by-another-breakout-2010-07-15

It is easy for bulls to fall into another technical trap, since the Dow has climbed above the 50-day simple moving average, which has acted as resistance since the Dow first fell below it in early May, and is now peeking above a downward sloping line that started at the April 26 high and connects the June 21 high. But rather than embolden bulls, the apparent breakout should actually make them skeptical, especially following a six-session rally.

...

The first bounce started after the Dow fell below the 200-day moving average, seen by many as a bull vs. bear market divider, for the first time in 10 months; that bounce ended the day after the Dow closed above the 50-day moving average; the next decline ended after the Dow fell below key support at the February low; another rally ended a few sessions after the Dow had broken above the 200-day moving average and traded above the 50-day in intraday trading.

...

Even if strong second-quarter results become a reality, investors have already acted on it. The Dow faces tough resistance at the 10,400 to 10,450 level, which encompasses the 200-day moving average and the 50% retracement of the fall from the April 26 high of 11,258 to the July 5 low of 9,614. The June 21 high of 10,594 shouldn't give way without some good, concrete news on the economy. The Dow was up 175 points at 10,391 in afternoon trading.

For investors to feel safe betting on a breakout, the Dow needs to start the next bounce before it hits a new low. There should be some support at the 9,950 to 10,000 level, while drop below 9,757 would indicate another new low was coming. At least investors can then start expecting another false breakdown, and another 5%+ bounce.

[Festivito]

27. Debt: 07/13/2010 13,199,290,856,204.31 (UP 4,767,841,826.08) (Tue)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Problems. Problems. Problems. Stuck at job till 5AM.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,639,463,545,519.75 + 4,559,827,310,684.56
UP 353,392,256.51 + UP 4,414,449,569.57

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,229.28 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,666,454 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,624.22.
A family of three owes $127,872.66. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 7,185,560,704.87.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,269,411,183.57.
The average for the last 32 days would be 4,940,072,984.60.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 195 reports in 286 days of FY2010 averaging 6.61B$ per report, 4.51B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 922 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/13/2010 13,199,290,856,204.31 BHO (UP 2,572,413,807,291.23 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,289,461,852,692.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,645,641,874,939.86 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/22/2010 -000,064,399,407.68 ----
06/23/2010 +000,605,957,540.69 ------------********
06/24/2010 -003,383,268,122.91 --
06/25/2010 +000,258,141,060.04 ------------********
06/28/2010 -000,856,644,286.03 --- Mon
06/29/2010 +000,753,506,197.45 ------------********
06/30/2010 +077,231,903,487.92 ------------**********
07/01/2010 -006,671,631,742.50 --
07/02/2010 +000,460,030,174.48 ------------********
07/06/2010 +000,075,213,990.44 ------------******* Tue
07/07/2010 +000,013,416,608.65 ------------*******
07/08/2010 +011,830,915,605.93 ------------**********
07/09/2010 -000,134,583,926.15 ---
07/12/2010 -000,143,600,537.54 --- Mon
07/13/2010 +000,353,392,256.51 ------------********

80,328,348,899.30 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4464145&mesg_id=4464399

[Festivito]

54. Debt: 07/14/2010 13,189,505,566,215.83 (DOWN 9,785,289,988.48) (Wed)

(Up a little. Goofed on this post. SS was down a lot. The public debt was up a little. Then my network cable failed. Now I can edit this. Sheesh. Good day.)
Storms cancel jobs.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,639,660,769,988.28 + 4,549,844,796,227.55
UP 197,224,468.53 + DOWN 9,982,514,457.01

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,229.21 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,673,100 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,591.71.
A family of three owes $127,775.12. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 6,652,604,403.61.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,878,576,562.65.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 196 reports in 287 days of FY2010 averaging 6.53B$ per report, 4.46B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 921 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/14/2010 13,189,505,566,215.83 BHO (UP 2,562,628,517,302.75 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,279,676,562,704.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,627,463,224,344.94 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/23/2010 +000,605,957,540.69 ------------********
06/24/2010 -003,383,268,122.91 --
06/25/2010 +000,258,141,060.04 ------------********
06/28/2010 -000,856,644,286.03 --- Mon
06/29/2010 +000,753,506,197.45 ------------********
06/30/2010 +077,231,903,487.92 ------------**********
07/01/2010 -006,671,631,742.50 --
07/02/2010 +000,460,030,174.48 ------------********
07/06/2010 +000,075,213,990.44 ------------******* Tue
07/07/2010 +000,013,416,608.65 ------------*******
07/08/2010 +011,830,915,605.93 ------------**********
07/09/2010 -000,134,583,926.15 ---
07/12/2010 -000,143,600,537.54 --- Mon
07/13/2010 +000,353,392,256.51 ------------********
07/14/2010 +000,197,224,468.53 ------------********

80,589,972,775.51 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4465563&mesg_id=4465781

[DemReadingDU]

30. Update to Denninger Video: Stock Market Manipulation

Karl Denninger's 2nd video about market manipulation and discusses why it is illegal.

"there is something very wrong with a market that is rigged against the smaller investor by computers that can place 20 orders up and down the bid and offer ladder to "hold their place in line" and then cancel those they no longer want as price moves while you, sitting behind a screen, can't possibly replicate this sort of strategy"
Click for video and further explanation
http://market-ticker.org/archives/2503-Update-To-July-4th-Video.html
video only
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zN5HNs-AG8M appx 12 minutes

[Dr.Phool]

33. I know it ain't stocks. But it needs sharing.

http://www.wimp.com/oneball/

[Juneboarder]

35. That was hilarious!!

What's even funnier (to me) is that my dog bears resemblence to this deer. Must be long lost relatives :)

[Roland99]

38. wicked cool!

[Demeter]

45. Reminds of the day we brought the cat home

and the dog brought out all his toys to share...they were good buddies, if a bit confused.

I'd call "here, kitty, kitty!" and the dog would show up, while shouting "Dog!" would bring the cat running.

Is it any wonder I'm a wreck and a cynic?

[Hawkowl]

55. Awesome

Thanks for the happy video :)

[TalkingDog]

34. Illinois = Greece

http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/13/news/economy/illinois_debt/


States don't traditionally fund their pensions with debt, but the practice frees up other money that can be used for operations, said John Sinsheimer, Illinois' director of capital markets.

The Prairie State is in the midst of correcting years of overspending that has left the state in deep financial trouble. It could have as much as $6 billion in unpaid bills that have left schools, social service agencies and vendors waiting months to be paid, according to state comptroller Daniel Hynes.

"We're leveraging our future and that's not the correct approach, but it was what was chosen out of a lot of bad options," Hynes told CNNMoney.com.



The results of which were totally unexpected....

[Roland99]

39. Foreclosure rate drops, but Nevada still ranks No. 1

Foreclosure rate drops, but Nevada still ranks No. 1
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/jul/14/foreclosure-rate-eases-nevada-still-ranks-no-1/

Nevada had 64,429 foreclosure filings in the first half of 2010, which equated to one filing for every 17 households or 5 percent of the housing units in the state, RealtyTrac reported.

Nevada had 38,077 foreclosure filings in the second quarter of 2010, which was 10 percent higher than the first quarter, RealtyTrac reported. The second quarter filings, however, were 13 percent below the level of the April through June period in 2009.

RealtyTrac reported that the pace of properties entering foreclosure slowed because lenders delayed proceedings by being more aggressive with short sales and loan modifications.

Wells Fargo, for example, held a workshop in Las Vegas last weekend to help customers obtain loan modifications or take other steps to avoid foreclosure.

[Demeter]

41. Jeez, Ozy, That Is an Instant Classic Cartoon There

[Roland99]

48. At the close - Wall St. shows it's very scared of the new "reform" bill.....NOT

Dow 10,359 -7 -0.07%
Nasdaq 2,249 -1 -0.03%
S&P 500 1,096 +1 +0.12%
GlobalDow 1,824 -3 -0.15%
Gold 1,209 +1 +0.06%
Oil 76.73 -0.31 -0.40%

[Dr.Phool]

50. They passed a reform bill? Really?

And I heard they bankrupted Goldman Sachs and hauled all of their executives off to Gitmo.

But, I'm taking drugs. I could be wrong.

[DemReadingDU]

51. When does this finance reform bill take effect?

No one is talking about that.

[Roland99]

52. In the year 2525....

[DemReadingDU]

56. I remember that song

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhNM2K8cmU8

[Roland99]

57. that song used to creep me the hell out when I was a kid

:)

[hamerfan]

53. The 12th

Of Never!
:rofl:
Thank you, I'll be here all week....

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

49. +toon