BP Oil Leak May Last Until Christmas in Worst Case Scenario

[ozymandius]

Source: Bloomberg

BP Plc’s failure since April to plug a Gulf of Mexico oil leak have prompted forecasts the crude may continue gushing into December in what President Barack Obama has called the greatest environmental disaster in U.S. history.

Ending the year with a still-gushing well would mean about 4 million barrels of oil spilled into the Gulf, based on the government’s current estimate of 12,000 to 19,000 barrels leaking a day. That would wipe out marine life deep at sea near the leak and elsewhere in the Gulf, and along hundreds of miles of coastline, said Harry Roberts, a professor of Coastal Studies at Louisiana State University.

So much crude pouring into the ocean may alter the chemistry of the sea, with unforeseeable results, said Mak Saito, an Associate Scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts.

The crude oil could enter a current that would draw it out of the Gulf and up along the East Coast of the U.S. all the way to Nantucket, Roberts, of Lousiana State University, said.

Marine life may take decades to recover, wiping out businesses along the coastline that depend on the fishing and seafood industry.

Read more: http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-02/bp-gulf-of-mexico-oil-leak-may-last-until-christmas-in-worst-case-scenario.html

[no_hypocrisy]

1. Witht the Timeline being moved, first to August, now to December,

I'm getting the feeling the "true" Timeline is "whenever the oil runs out".

[joanmj]

3. me too

:argh:

[joanmj]

4. me too

:argh:

[Hempathy]

17. that would mean beyond all of our lifetimes.

there's A LOT of oil in that deposit, and it would take a long time for it all to spew out of one drill hole.

[ixion]

19. As I said initially, it will stop when the pressure equalizes

doubtfully before, unless the relief wells could siphon off enough oil to speed that up.

[Botany]

2. The truth

Tony Hayward has more recently put the maximum potential leak rate at 60,000 barrels a day.

Good bye planet

[cbdo2007]

5. What happens on Christmas??

Do we throw all the christmas trees down there to plug the hole or something or does Santa have some brilliant plan he's holding back on until Christmas to maximize his own publicity? This sounds suspect to me.

[salguine]

6. If they can't stop it until Christmas, why would they be able to stop it then?

[Botany]

7. Lower pressures of oil and gas coming up out of the formation

Top kill didn't work because of the huge pressures.

[salguine]

22. You can't just assume the pressure will decrease anytime soon. This could go for years.

[Lint Head]

8. Guess Christmas will celebrated oily this year. Nuk. Nuk.

[ozymandius]

9. How much worse can it get for BP?

Cross-posted from today's Stock Market Watch:

..BP's plummeting share price, although an alarming index of sentiment, poses no immediate danger either for BP or for long-term investors. More worrying are the costs of the catastrophe, for which BP is liable. The $990m price tag for the clean-up and containment attempts so far is easily manageable. And even if costs run as high as $25bn – the top estimate – BP will not go under. The group generated nearly $30bn last year, and oil prices are expected to carry on rising.

That oil may continue to gush into the Gulf until August is bad enough in itself. But there are bigger dangers still. The first is the hurricane season, which will start within days. Meteorologists are predicting a tumultuous 2010 after two relatively quiet years. The timing could not be worse. Not only will storms put a stop to clean-up operations, they will also endanger the rigs drilling the relief wells, and, worse still, could spread the slick way beyond its existing extent. Compensation costs for the Louisiana fishing industries may be high. But if the oil interrupts Florida's tourism, BP's bill will go through the roof.

Worse still for BP, President Obama would be forced to take measures against the group. At the moment, BP has more leases in the Gulf of Mexico than any other oil company. While the administration may be loath to confiscate them as a "nationalisation without compensation", it could make a case that BP failed in its "stewardship of the environment", and invite a syndicate of other oil companies to take the leases over in its stead. And given that the region accounts for some 25 per cent of BP's total production, the impact on the company would be devastating.

The other major risk for BP is the inquiry into the explosion itself. BP's own initial internal investigation has suggested that warning signs may have been overlooked in the hours before the explosion. The US Attorney General, Eric Holder, yesterday visited the Gulf Coast to talk to federal and state prosecutors, and said a criminal and civil investigation had been opened into the spill, raising the possibility that BP could face a prosecution and a punitive fine.

The good news for Britain's pension holders is that even in the worst-case scenario it is almost unthinkable that BP – until recently the UK's largest company – could cease to exist. It is too big a component of British industry for it to be feasibly forced into bankruptcy by the US government. But the doomsday scenario could see BP forced to split off its US operations to absorb the costs, or even the loss of its Gulf of Mexico operations. Such drastic outcomes are still far from being a reality. But they are real enough risks to have wiped nearly £2bn off the value of the company in a single day.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/how-much-worse-can-it-get-for-bp-1988968.html

[Stuart G]

18. Well, let us remember??

Let's say three years ago, we would have talked about this large auto company, one of the largest in the world..
going bankrupt..Would anyone have believed it?...

The post says..."could cease to exist. It is too big a component of the British industry for it to feasibly forced into bankruptcy..."

maybe so, maybe not..what if this BP Oil Gusher is far worse than anyone immagines...the stuff gets to the UK and soils its beaches..maybe then the government would force them into bankruptcy..not likely to happen, sure, but, ... stranger things have happened.....

Just one example please. : I recall thinking in early 2007, when a certain Illinois Senator announced he was running for President..
Not a snowballs chance in hell..nice try...and good luck in your quest against the windmills...and please...

........sir, don't quit your day job..

[ozymandius]

21. Even the remotest statistical probabilities still stand a chance of happening.

Is that your point? Just asking.

The breadth and depth of all damages remain to be seen. Right now the all encompassing view remains in the realm of what we already know, what is probable in the near term and the vast range of what is statistically possible.

I was shocked when GM filed for bankruptcy. That event did not seem probable but was certainly possible. That event shows how important statistical outliers can be.

[salguine]

23. Everything you've said here is based on the assumption that BP is

actually going to have to foot this bill, a notion which, given the way we've seen how things work in Washington, is laughable.

[tomm2thumbs]

10. someone is going to put clean-coal in someone's stocking this year if that happens

[4dsc]

11. Worst case it could leak for years.

I think someone is downplaying this disaster.

[Lerkfish]

12. I thought I read somewhere the oil could gush for years.

I seem to recall "7 years". But now I cant find that link so I might be wrong.

[Psephos]

13. Same moving goalpost technique used in the Iraq War. n/t

[Dr.Phool]

14. Now, I know what I'm getting for X-mas.

Fucked!

[gorfle]

15. I keep asking my wife for that.

But after getting all the presents under the tree she's always too tire. :)

[CountAllVotes]

16. it will be capped within 24 hrs. right BBC?

damned liars! :argh: :argh: :argh: :mad:

:kick: & recommend.

[Frank Cannon]

20. Whiskey. Tango. Foxtrot.

That no one is going to be punished for this in the slightest is just unfuckingbelievable. If I were to shrug off safety standards at work enough that someone slipped and fell, I'd be fired immediately. These people poisoned a planet, for crying out loud.

This company needs to be shut down and every single person responsible for this travesty--all the way up to the top--need to be ruined.