FBI says violent crime rate down again

[TPaine7]

Source: Yahoo News

According to the numbers, all four categories of violent crime declined compared to 2008 — robbery, murder, aggravated assault and forcible rape.

...

Nationwide, the murder rate was down 7.2 percent last year.

...

Robbery dropped 8.1 percent, aggravated assault declined 4.2 percent and forcible rape was down 3.1 percent.

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100524/ap_on_go_ot/us_fbi_crime

---

This is great news--even in the face of a bad economy, crime is falling. I hope it continues.

I can't help but be confused, however. This continues an impossible trend--as gun proliferation increases and gun laws are liberalized, we all know that crime MUST increase-- and yet it hasn't.

America has just gone on a huge, RECORD BREAKING shopping spree for guns. This after concealed carry spread across most of the country and people who weren't employed by the state or militia members carried gun on our streets. And the assault weapons ban expired. The Brady Campaign and the Violence Policy Center told us that these things would lead to increases in crime.

Why, after the legalization of concealed carry and the massive proliferation of weapons to those who don't work for the government or serve in militias, has crime fallen instead of risen? Why do assault weapons in American civilian hands only cause murder to rise in Mexico? Could it be that gun control theories are false, and guns in civilian hands don't lead inevitably to increases in crime? Could it even be that gun proliferation in the hands of average citizens helps crime to fall?!!

In any event, I'm glad to see the crime rates falling.

[depakid]

1. You're "confused" because you don't graps the fact that less guns would equal even a greater fall

in crime rates- particularly certain types of crimes that America has in great abundance compared with other nations that have responsible firearms regulations.

In short- you reason like a child.

[TPaine7]

4. Prove it.

I know that to you it's an article of faith, but you don't reason at all. You simply assert your faith as THE TRUTH.

People like you who lack critical thinking skills have asserted repeatedly that if there are more guns, crime will rise. I have shown that the evidence does not support this religious dogma. You have simply modified the dogma slightly and regurgitated it.

Prove your bald assertion, or be man enough to admit that you haven't reasoned, even like a child. You have simply "faithed."

[proteus_lives]

6. Asking him to prove it?

:rofl:

Good luck! That's like asking a creationist to debate evolution!

[depakid]

14. Prove what? That the US has astonishingly high rates of gun violence?

or that mass shootings, workplace gun violence and multiple family murders and are commonplace in the United States- and comparatively rarer where responsible regulations are in place?

That's pretty much a given that can be found with a simple google news search and and every day of the week!

Look, it wouldn't matter what anyone said or showed- because (as you've ironically mentioned) it's a matter of faith to the gun nuts. Part and parcel to the fear and/or obsession that drives many to bring guns into the home and endanger their families and members of their households in the first place!

[TPaine7]

17. "the fact that less guns would equal even a greater fall"

Prove that "fact."

Make sure that your proof accounts for the actual fact that when Americans have more guns and more freedom to carry them, crime falls. Make sure your proof shows how comparing apples to apples--America with less guns and less recognition of gun rights vs America with more guns and more recognition of gun rights--is a less legitimate comparison than comparing apples to oranges--America with other countries with other cultures, histories and levels of economic disparity.

Get adult help understanding the issues in that paragraph. You obviously need it. You seem to actually seem to believe that "country X has laws depakid likes and lower crime rates than country Y, which has laws depakid doesn't like, therefore laws depakid likes cause the lower rates" is a sound argument.

What's worse is that you can't follow the counterargument "when country Y changes its laws until they are *worse* as far as depakid is concerned, the crime rates FALL." They FALL. In the SAME COUNTRY, where you don't have to account for a plethora of other variables.

As I said, get adult help.

[depakid]

24. LOL- see the response below where that's actually been done and studied!

Closer to "home" -look at the spate of family murders that happened in Washington County Oregon last year. One involved a guy who took his kids out to a nature park and shot them, then turned the gun on himself. Later on in the year there were 3 more withing the span of a few weeks. Wife, kids and husband dead.

Those men likely bought their guns into their homes "for protection." In each case, there was no history of domestic violence- but somehow something "snapped" and just like that- (I think the toll was 17 in all) they weren't around to celebrate Christmas and the New Year.

One relatively small county in one small state. Now multiply that manyfold in many states.

btw: it's not always the husband with the gun (just mostly):

Wife charged in shooting
Monday, May 24, 2010

One day after Carl Mirasola was found shot to death in his Roosevelt Avenue home, officials announced they had charged his wife, Amalia, in his killing. Amalia Mirasola, 44, was charged Sunday with homicide and possession of a weapon for an unlawful purpose in the shooting of her husband, according to a statement from the Morris County Prosecutor's Office. Amalia Mirasola, who suffers from multiple sclerosis and is confined to a wheelchair due to recent surgery, was being held Sunday in the Morris County Correctional Facility on $1 million cash bail.

Carl Mirasola was shot multiple times in the couple's home about 8 a.m. Saturday, while their three children — a 13-year-old girl and twin 7-year-old boys — were inside, authorities said. Carl Mirasola worked as an information technology specialist for educational publishing firm Pearson Education in Upper Saddle River.

Amalia Mirasola possessed a registered firearm, according to her attorney, Robert Stack. Stack said Amalia Mirasola hired him in April to initiate divorce proceedings. The couple's house was also up for sale.

Stack said Carl Mirasola had a "verbal altercation" with his wife Friday night because she had started to assert her independence by creating a personal bank account. Stack declined to comment on why Amalia Mirasola initially purchased a handgun, but on Sunday he described his reaction to hearing of the shooting. "When I got the call I wasn't thinking self-defense," he said. "I thought 'here's a woman who finally had enough."

More: http://www.northjersey.com/news/94717639_Wife_charged_in_shooting.html

[friendly_iconoclast]

29. And one from the fair society: Police open fire in Sydney shopping street as gang ambush backfires

Somehow, despite all those wondeful gun laws, the Aussies seem to have gun crime. In this case the robbers
got away, to boot:

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/police-open-fire-in-sydney-shopping-street-as-gang-ambush-backfires-20100524-w6kf.html

Police open fire in Sydney shopping street as gang ambush backfires


Stunned shoppers looked on as police opened fire on armed robbers in a Sydney street today as an operation aimed at foiling a crime went pear-shaped.

A police tactical operations unit interrupted the gang as they tried to rob a business on busy Beamish Street in Campsie about 8.50am.

But when officers tried to stop the getaway car, they could not, instead opening fire at it as shoppers walked past.

"We heard three of four shots, then everyone was gone," said Greg Wade, who owns a shop across the road from where the incident occurred....

[depakid]

30. And the point is that it's a VERY rare occurence- and yet commonplace throughout the states

Of course, the matter discussed above dealt with family killings and easy access to guns- but I suppose since that's what you could find to support "the benefits" of firearms proliferation, it's fair enough to post it.

[friendly_iconoclast]

33. You still have two different standards for anecdotal accounts of gun crime

As well as ignoring the fact that the States have +/- 11x as many people.

If the US had *exactly* the same rate of gun crime as Australia does, there would still be *eleven* times as many
accounts like the one you gave simply beacuse of the population differential.

If you want to keep up the pretense that anecdotes reflect rates, I'll be happy to keep digging up ones from Australia.

[depakid]

36. Not at all- the RATE has nothing to do with raw population numbers

and as far as anecdotes go, on things like family killings for example, they're simply reflection a far higher the rate.

For instance, were many more family murders in the state of Oregon last year than on the entire continent of Australia! Even though Australia has many times the population.

And that has to do with easy access to guns- particularly the types that kill multiple members of the family (as well as the choice to bring them into the home).

[friendly_iconoclast]

37. Then you should be encouraging the replacement of handguns with rifles.

As they are not one of "the types that kill" anywhere near as much as handguns do. If you're going to play
the odds, one is better off having an AR-15 in the house over any handgun, all the "assault weapon" noise notwithstanding.

By the way, gun "types" don't kill- that's animist nuttery.


And you seem to be avoiding discussing the new guns that the Vic. state police are getting.
Don't fit the worldview?

[friendly_iconoclast]

34. While we're at it, what's your explanation for the VIC cops buying semiautomatics?

Per post #25, remember?

If gun crime is down, why did they not simply buy replacement revolvers in the requisite caliber?
For some odd reason, the Victoria police feel they need more firepower than they have at present...

Care to hazard a guess as to why?

[proteus_lives]

7. "you reason like a child"

Classic projection.

[friendly_iconoclast]

28. Jamaica has "responsible firearms regulations". And a state of emergency:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4394679

Jamaica Declares State of Emergency
Source: Reuters

KINGSTON (Reuters) - Jamaica's government declared a state of emergency in parts of its capital Kingston Sunday after shooting and firebomb attacks on police stations by suspected supporters of an alleged drug lord who faces extradition to the United States.

The emergency covered the West Kingston and St. Andrew districts of the capital where gunmen fired on two police stations and set fire to another. The attackers were suspected supporters of Christopher "Dudus" Coke who the government is seeking under a U.S. extradition request.

At least one policeman was injured. Streets into the Tivoli Gardens area of West Kingston, where Coke is believed to be hiding, were barricaded, witnesses said.

We await your explanation...

[Dogmudgeon]

2. When Democrats win, crime falls

The trend is unmistakable.

--d!

[Ian David]

3. Nobody has anything worth stealing anymore.

And once you steal something, nobody has the money to buy it from you.

[TPaine7]

5. Murder and rape fell, too n/t

[Ian David]

8. Bullets cost money, and rape requires woman able to afford to leave the house to do something?

:shrug:

[Deep13]

9. I don't know of any real evidence that correlates gun laws to crime rates.

Just because two things happen at the same time doesn't mean one causes the other.

[TPaine7]

11. I know.

Correlation does not equal causation.

But reverse correlation does tend to refute causation. That was my point.

The question was just a question--an invitation to consider the heretical possibility that guns might do good, statistically speaking.

[safeinOhio]

13. Calling a correlation a cause when there are many

variables can backfire. Like calling everything a nail when you have a hammer in your hand. Now if there is ever a trend in the other direction, the poster will be pointing out all of the other demographics involved and saying gun proliferation has no effect at all. I'd bet money on that.

[TPaine7]

18. See post 11

[depakid]

16. Well, since Australia implemented its firearms buyback and sales & ownership restrictions

There hasn't been a mass shooting in the country- (since 1996) and homicide rates fell faster than they would have absent the regulations.

Shown quite clearly in peer reviewed research.

Meanwhile, tic tock- when will the next big one be in the states?

[TPaine7]

21. I have seen this assertion soundly refuted.

I've also participated in a conversation where your definition of "mass shooting" morphed into various mutually conflicting pretzel shapes to suit your rapidly changing "arguments."

Why do you repeat this nonsense? Do you think no one remembers or that no one will call you on it?

Why not just claim religious freedom and leave it at that? I respect your right to freedom of religion.

[depakid]

26. It's not an "assertion," it's a fact demonstrated by the data

Read it for yourself (and look at the data plotted on the graphs):

Australia’s 1996 gun law reforms: faster falls in firearm deaths, firearm suicides, and a decade without mass shootings

Background: After a 1996 firearm massacre in Tasmania in which 35 people died, Australian governments united to remove semi-automatic and pump-action shotguns and rifles from civilian possession, as a key component of gun law reforms.

Objective: To determine whether Australia’s 1996 major gun law reforms were associated with changes in rates of mass firearm homicides, total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and firearm suicides, and whether there were any apparent method substitution effects for total homicides and suicides.

Design: Observational study using official statistics. Negative binomial regression analysis of changes in firearm death rates and comparison of trends in pre–post gun law reform firearm-related mass killings.

Main outcome measures: Changes in trends of total firearm death rates, mass fatal shooting incidents, rates of firearm homicide, suicide and unintentional firearm deaths, and of total homicides and suicides per 100 000 population.

Results: In the 18 years before the gun law reforms, there were 13 mass shootings in Australia, and none in the 10.5 years afterwards. Declines in firearm-related deaths before the law reforms accelerated after the reforms for total firearm deaths (p = 0.04), firearm suicides (p = 0.007) and firearm homicides (p = 0.15), but not for the smallest category of unintentional firearm deaths, which increased.

No evidence of substitution effect for suicides or homicides was observed. The rates per 100 000 of total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and firearm suicides all at least doubled their existing rates of decline after the revised gun laws.

Conclusions: Australia’s 1996 gun law reforms were followed by more than a decade free of fatal mass shootings, and accelerated declines in firearm deaths, particularly suicides.

Total homicide rates followed the same pattern. Removing large numbers of rapid-firing firearms from civilians may be an effective way of reducing mass shootings, firearm homicides and firearm suicides.

Full study: http://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/12/6/365.full

[slackmaster]

31. But no beneficial effect on the OVERALL murder rate

Fewer fatal shootings, more fatal stabbings and beatings.

[depakid]

32. WRONG -read it again and pay attention to the graphs and tables

as well as the words:

No substitution effects.

[slackmaster]

35. It looks like the "gun homicide", "non-gun homicide" and overall homicide rates all went down

About the same amount.

[friendly_iconoclast]

25. Then why are the Victoria cops buying faster reloading American guns?

Massachusetts-made Smith and Wessons, to be exact.

Care to explain?:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=118&topic_id=314775

Australian cops upgun: "(Victoria) Police set sights on faster reloading guns"

Police set sights on faster reloading guns

Posted April 30, 2010 09:23:00

The Police Superintendent in East Gippsland says new semi-automatic pistols will enable police officers to better defend themselves in a shoot-out.

The Victorian Government has awarded a $7 million contract to replace police revolvers with semi-automatic pistols.

The police union had previously claimed an officer in Melbourne was shot in the leg while reloading a revolver during a shoot-out in 2008.

Superintendent Geoff Newby says the new semi-automatic pistols will improve police safety when they arrive later this year.

"Well they'll have 15 shots before they need to reload as opposed to previously they would've had to have taken some form of reload action after six shots and of course during that time we're trained to do that at reasonable speed, under pressure that can take a little while and put you at risk, so from a safety aspect we're very pleased that we've got that option," he said....



http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/04/30/2886635.htm?site=gippsland§ion=news

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[proteus_lives]

12. +1

[TreasonousBastard]

15. Well, the largest decrease was in metropolitan counties where...

there tends to be less of an emphasis on guns. Explain that.

Also explain the comparatively low crime rates in other countries with severe gun restrictions, like Japan. Even Switzerland, where the highly touted requirement to be in the reserves and have a gun in the house doesn't mean you can take that gun out of the house whenever you feel like it.

A lot of details are missing, so there really isn't any serious possibility of extrapolating causation from this little excerpt-- it would be nice if someone dug into these numbers, and those of the other crime surveys, to see an actual correlation of gun-toting with crime. Or, better yet, to come up with reasons for the decrease.

(In the past, when crime wen t down, I've usually seen a lot of guesswork-- everything from the economy to "we've got worst ones behind bars now.")

[TPaine7]

19. See post 11

I am not claiming a correlation.

Country to country comparisons are even more fraught with missing details that the correlation you think I made. Your argument is conveniently inconsistent.

[TreasonousBastard]

23. Everything that disagrees with, or even questions, the religious...

assumptions of the gun crowd is "inconsistent".

Cute trick that-- asking rhetorical questions that bolster your position and then claiming you were just innocently asking questions to explore the issue. I don't remember the name for it used in the logic texts, but it's frowned upon in proper argument.

And yes, I did say "religious" because the position that arming oneself is a fundamental right is only supported by belief and the US is the only nation I'm aware of that supports the idea of carrying weapons as a natural right. I'm not aware of any major philosophical or political train of thought that considers arms as a right. And no declaration of rights anywhere discusses it except in the most general terms of self-defense.

What are those missing details, btw, in country to country comparisons? The cultural and racial uniformity of the Japanese is certainly one, but their history is not exactly one of domestic peaceful coexistence. Fundamental human rights should not be bothered by irrelevant cultural or historical trivia anyway, should they?

Or, maybe gun ownership isn't a fundamental human right after all, and the 2nd Amendment is just your lucky break.

[KurtNYC]

20. glad to see the crime rates falling -- those are only the rates they publicize

the rate for white collar crime, default swaps and fraud, are in the hundreds of billions for the last year.

The rate for crimes against the environment are at all time highs.

[TPaine7]

22. True. I'm trying to look on the bright side. n/t

[era veteran]

27. Not because of guns unless it's the plastic 'guns' the thug class is waving

at their video games or the time spent on the internet or watching the TV. Can't mug or steal when you are trying for the next level. I'd like to see a study on this. Years ago I heard the comment " If the government wants a compliant citizenry they should legalize weed and make cable TV free".

[X_Digger]

38. Crime continued downward trend in 2009: FBI

Source: Reuters / FBI

Murders and auto thefts fell sharply in the United States in 2009, extending the downward trend in violent and property crimes, according to preliminary statistics released by the FBI on Monday.

It was the third straight annual decline in violent crimes and seventh straight annual decline for property crimes, which occurred despite a weak economy, which is often linked to spikes in criminal activity.

Each region of the country experienced a drop in crime, with the southern United States experiencing the largest decline -- a 6.6 percent drop -- according to the FBI.

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64N37320100524?type=domesticNews

---

Even with a wobbly economy, crime continues to drop!

eta: Note the 7.2% drop in murder.

[NodQuestion]

39. that's actually pretty awesome

Man things suck a lot less under this President.

[X_Digger]

40. Overall, crime has been trending down since the mid-90's.

[sam sarrha]

41. everybody has already Pawned anything of value to steal.... duh

[Demeter]

42. What about Suicide and Divorce?

That would show the economic stress much faster.

[pdefalla]

43. Is crime down even in Arizona?

Even though millions of crazed drug lords and gangsters are flooding into our country?