New Turkish secularist party leader sacks old guard

[DavidDvorkin]

Source: Reuters

Turkey's new opposition leader purged key hardline secularists and set a tentative reformist course on Sunday in a bid to regain ground lost to an AK Party government critics accuse of secretly pursuing an Islamic state.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a 62-year former civil servant, was elected chairman on Saturday following the resignation of veteran party leader Deniz Baykal over a sex tape scandal. The CHP delegates elected the new party assembly on Sunday.

While courting the more militant secularist elite, the CHP has lost support among urban, middle-class voters by firmly resisting AK's European Union-inspired reform steps to pare back army influence and liberalize the economy.

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100523/wl_nm/us_turkey_opposition_election

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This is a tricky one for an outsider to evaluate. Less power for a country's army always looks like a good thing, but Turkey is such an unusual case, and the move away from official secularism is a real problem.

[DavidDvorkin]

1. Good Heavens, I'm going to have to kick this myself!

To keep it from disappearing.

This is a completely secular kick, however.

[troubledamerican]

2. Turkey's politics are ignored around here (like Latin Amer.) but they're going to be central.

[DavidDvorkin]

6. Increasingly important in how the world will look in this century

It's one of many countries we should all be paying a lot of attention to.

[happyslug]

3. The problem with Turkey, is do you want a honest government or a Secular Government

For the last 20-30 years that has been the choice. AK is not only Honest it has done an effective job of strengthening out the Turkish economy, much better then the previous Secular Government. Thus the Turkish people have come to trust AK, while distrusting the Secular opposition.

AK first won power in 2002 and was re-elected in 2007. During that time period you have seen a tremendous drop in the inflation rate:
http://www.indexmundi.com/turkey/inflation_rate_%28consumer_prices%29.html

In recent months the Inflation rare has exceeded 10%, the first time since AK was in power (Higher rates were common when the secular opposition was in power):
http://www.worldbulletin.net/news_detail.php?id=57943

For some reason only known to the Turks, the Religious parties know how to run an economy, the Secular parities only know hoe to ruin an economy (and why the Religious parties keep winning elections, the opposition can NOT run on doing a better job on the economy, the opposition can NOT run that if it does not win the army will overthrow the Government (that would kill trade with Europe) so the opposition has to run as a SECULAR Party and attack the religious parties as being religious (And the worse religious riots in Turkish History occurred while the secularist parties were in control of the Government, the Religious Parties have caused few if any problems with religious minors in Turkey).

Just a comment that the attack on the AK as being a religious parties, is just that an attack, for it has protected minorities (Including religious minorities) while doing a very good job on the economy. The opposition has to attack the AK on religious grounds for it has no other way to attack. No one believes the CHP will do a better job on the economy (And most of the population think it will do a worse job) thus the only effective attack left for the Secular party to attack the AK is religion and they have decided to use it. i.e. the attack that the AK is a religious parties id being done for the Secular opposition has not other way to attack the AK that anyone will believe.

[DavidDvorkin]

5. So you don't think there's any real danger of Turkey becoming non-secular

under the present government?

[happyslug]

7. The present Government has NOT made Turkey non-secular since 2002,

And this Government has been in power for the last eight years AND has won two elections AND still has NOT made Turkey non-secular (One of the reason is the Government wants to join the Common Market and to do so means it has to show it is some sort of radical dictatorship, so it has great incentives NOT to undo any of the changes separating State from Church made since WWI).

Now, the Government will (and has) stopped some of the restrictions on Moslems imposed since 1923 (and the abolishment of the Caliphate) but more to show religious freedom them support for Islam (Through please note some of the anti-religious laws were more aimed at poor rural groups who rallied around Islamic leaders then Islam itself).

The final reason is the biggest fear is a military takeover under the cover of "preserving" the Secular state. In this scenario the Military does a coup overthrowing the Government and claims the reason the Military is doing so is to preserve the "Secular State". This is the claim made by previous Military Coups, and in every coup the it quickly became clear the real reason for the coup is to protect the economic control of Turkey in the upper middle class Turkish population (Which controls the Officer class of the Military). Preserving the Secular State (Or the Constitution, which is the actual wording used) has been the excuse for every military coup since 1923 and continued to be claimed long after it became clear that the real reason was to preserve the economic control of Turkey by the Turkish upper and Upper Middle Class (And to put down the Working class). AK knows its hold on power is subject to such a coup and does NOT want to give anyone an excuse. This AK will do NOTHING to make Islam the sole religion in Turkey, nor anything to make Islam a preferred religion in Turkey. AK will do things that show religious freedom, but nothing that will give the Military an excuse to overthrow the Government. This is the biggest Check on the Religious parties and has been a very effective check. The Religious party does NOT have the men with weapons to fight a Civil War and NO intention of arming its followers or fighting a Civil War. Thus the big fear is NOT that the AK will strip Turkey of its Secularness but that the military will over throw the Government using that as an excuse. AK wants to stay in power so will NOT do anything that will provoke the Turkish Military (And more accurately the Turkish Upper Middle Class that controls the Army) to overthrow it. AK knows its power base is in the Working Class (as was the Socialist opposition to the Turkish Military Class in the 1950s and 1960s). AK wants to help the Working Class so to strengthen the appeal of the AK to the Working class. TO do that the AK must be in power. So AK will NOT do anything that would end up them losing power, including eliminating the Secular Society of Turkey.

[bikebloke]

4. I was in Turkey last September.

It would be a shame if it went theocratic.