STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday May 5

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday May 5, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 4, 2010

Dow... 10,926.77 -225.06 (-2.06%)
Nasdaq... 2,424.25 -74.49 (-3.07%)
S&P 500... 1,173.60 -28.66 (-2.44%)
Gold future... 1,173 +3.80 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.59 -0.10 (-2.71%)
30-Year Bond 4.41 -0.11 (-2.48%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Demeter]

1. first rec! Good Morning Ozy!

[ozymandius]

2. Good morning, Demeter.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
I hope everything is fine this morning. And thanks for being the first rec of the day.

[Demeter]

6. I suppose it is--barring the next crisis

I have decided not to worry about anything. I have no control, anyway.

[Tansy_Gold]

24. Yeah, it's time to take a "whuddevah" attitude

Same here, but I'm only rec #16.

:hi:

Have a good day, all. Something -- the goddess only knows what -- woke me at 3:45 and after half an hour of coasting in and out of weird dreams, I got up. Now the work, tons of it, awaits and I'd better get to it.



Tansy Gold, who isn't sure if it's legal to say Happy Cinco de Mayo in Arizona any more but will say it anyway

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Reports

08:15 ADP Employment Change Apr
Briefing.com 20K
Consensus 30K
Prior -23K

10:00 ISM Services Apr
Briefing.com 56.1
Consensus 56.1
Prior 55.4

10:30 Crude Inventories 05/01
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 1.96M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

31. U.S. April ADP employment up 32,000

U.S. April ADP employment up 32,000
8:15 a.m. Today

[Demeter]

4. It's All Goldman, All the Time

What press hogs they are!


Goldman set to beef up legal team for SEC talks
Goldman Sachs is aiming to beef up its team of high-powered legal advisers as it steps up talks with the US Securities and Exchange Commission over accusations of fraud
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/S4XZQQ/GKS3DT/87I64/EWJB7J/M9R8FT/SN/t

Paulson assures investors over Goldman fallout
John Paulson, whose hedge fund profited from the transaction at the heart of the civil fraud charges filed in the US against Goldman Sachs, has pledged to his investors that he will bear the costs of any litigation brought against his company in the matter
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/S4XZQQ/GKS3DT/87I64/EWJB7J/EWDPY1/SN/t


AND THEN THERE'S THIS:



Satire
Somali Pirates Say They Are Subsidiary of Goldman Sachs

Fake news by Andy Borowitz

May 03, 2010 "Truthdig" -- NORFOLK, Va.—Eleven indicted Somali pirates dropped a bombshell in a U.S. court today, revealing that their entire piracy operation is a subsidiary of banking giant Goldman Sachs.

There was an audible gasp in the courtroom when the leader of the pirates announced, “We are doing God’s work. We work for Lloyd Blankfein.” The pirate, who said he earned a bonus of $48 million in doubloons last year, elaborated on the nature of the Somalis’ work for Goldman, explaining that the pirates forcibly attacked ships that Goldman had already shorted.

“We were functioning as investment bankers, only every day was casual Friday,” the pirate said. The pirate acknowledged that they merged their operations with Goldman in late 2008 to take advantage of the more relaxed regulations governing bankers as opposed to pirates, “plus to get our share of the bailout money.”

In the aftermath of the shocking revelations, government prosecutors were scrambling to see if they still had a case against the Somali pirates, who would now be treated as bankers in the eyes of the law. “There are lots of laws that could bring these guys down if they were, in fact, pirates,” one government source said. “But if they’re bankers, our hands are tied.”

Goldman to Employ ‘Douchebag Defense’

NEW YORK—In the event of a criminal case against the banking giant, Goldman Sachs is planning to employ a rarely used legal strategy known as the “douchebag defense,” sources confirmed today.

Davis Logsdon, dean of the University of Minnesota School of Law, summarized the unorthodox strategy: “Basically, they will be arguing that the Goldman executives had no control over their actions because they are ginormous dicks.”

“Exhibit A” if the bank decides to go forward with the douchebag defense will be Goldman banker Fabrice “Fabulous Fab” Tourre. “I think the government would have a hard time arguing that he was not an egregious douche,” Logsdon said.

In order to establish Tourre’s douchebag bona fides, Goldman’s lawyers would most likely offer up his e-mails, his Facebook profile and several of his ex-girlfriends. Jury selection could also be key to the success of Goldman’s douchebag defense strategy. “Goldman’s dream jury would be made up of 12 angry dickwads,” Logsdon said. “In New York, that shouldn’t be hard to find.”

Award-winning humorist, television personality and film actor Andy Borowitz is author of the book “The Republican Playbook.”

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article25374.htm

[ozymandius]

8. 63 Percent Of U.S. Implicated In New Scandal (flashback)

WASHINGTON, DC—The Securities and Exchange Commission announced Tuesday that more than 63 percent of all U.S. citizens have been implicated in an illegal stock-dumping, the latest scandal to rock the nation's economy.

"It's staggering how far-reaching this is," SEC chairman Harvey Pitt said. "More than 175 million citizens from all walks of life are involved in one criminal imbroglio. Everybody from white-collar workers to grandmothers, boy-scout leaders, and the entire state of Delaware. Point a finger anywhere, and you have a better chance than not of hitting a guilty party."

According to the SEC, on Jan. 15, Jerome P. Lippman, vice-president of pharmaceutical giant Unocore Systems in Dallas, warned friends and business associates of a failed merger with Pfizer. The information was leaked by an as-yet-undetermined source, resulting in 98 percent of Unocore's stock being sold off on Jan. 16, one day prior to an official public announcement of the unsuccessful merger.

Pitt said the 2 percent of Unocore's stockholders who failed to sell off their stock faced massive financial losses.

who else?

[Demeter]

10. They Tell More Truth Than Anyone Else in the Business

Love that Onion

[Demeter]

17. Goldman fraud case goes to the next level Commentary: Will the embattled firm lose clients?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-embattled-goldman-sachs-lose-its-clients-2010-04-30?reflink=MW_news_stmp

The noose is tightening around the neck of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Will clients continue to hold the firm up?

The Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday that federal prosecutors are investigating Goldman /quotes/comstock/13*!gs/quotes/nls/gs (GS 149.45, -0.05, -0.03%) for its mortgage trading practices. Unlike the civil case previously brought by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Manhattan U.S. attorney's office could potentially bring criminal charges. Read story on potential criminal charges:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-considers-goldman-sachs-criminal-charges-wsj-2010-04-30

Goldman has denied wrongdoing.

Since Goldman reported a $3.3 billion profit for the first quarter, the SEC filed its charges, nine Goldman executives were paraded before the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, and now the criminal charges are a possibility.

Investors, who have supported the firm's handling of the damaging news by lifting Goldman shares this week, appeared rattled by the latest bout of news.

Shares fell 2.6% in after-hours trading when the Journal's story broke. They tumbled 5.3% after the opening bell Friday on the New York Stock Exchange.

Those investors may be starting to concede that the looming legal issues surrounding the firm may at last drive away Goldman's client base...

LOTS OF LINKS TO JUICY STUFF AT ORIGINAL LINK!

[ozymandius]

21. Goldman Disciplined on Short Sales

The Securities and Exchange Commission and the regulatory arm of NYSE Euronext disciplined an equities unit of Goldman Sachs Co. on Tuesday for alleged violations of rules on short selling stocks.

In December 2008 and January 2009, Goldman Sachs Execution Clearing LP allegedly failed to buy enough shares to cover short positions held by customers, according to a notice from NYSE Regulation.

The issue was compounded as the firm continued to accept hundreds of short-sale orders in stocks in which it hadn't obtained enough shares to cover clients' existing short positions.

Short selling is a practice in which investors borrow shares and sell them to another investor, aiming to buy them back after their value has gone down and pocketing the difference. The practice is legal, but U.S. regulators have tightened up rules to ensure that investors actually hold the shares that they are lending out.

Tuesday's disciplinary action represents the first case pressed by regulators based on new rules put in place in the fall of 2008 to curb so-called "naked" short selling, in which investors short stocks that they don't possess.

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052748703866704575224191814477302-lMyQjAxMTAwMDAwNDEwNDQyWj.html

[ozymandius]

5. Oil falls to near $82 as US crude supplies rise

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell to near $82 a barrel Wednesday in Asia after a report showed U.S. crude supplies rose more than expected last week.

U.S. crude inventories rose 3.0 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday. Analysts had expected an increase of 1.5 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

In other Nymex trading in June contracts, heating oil was steady at $2.259 a gallon, and gasoline slipped 0.27 cent to $2.319 a gallon. Natural gas rose 1.0 cent to $4.023 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[hamerfan]

14. You won't see that price drop

reflected at the gas pump for days/weeks. But if the price were to go up, the pump price would go up overnight.
Funny how that works...
hamerfan

[ozymandius]

18. Price stickiness is everywhere.

If the price of crude goes up more than a dollar - the BP station nearby will raise prices by a dime. Conversely, if the price drops by two dollars then the price holds steady. I realize this observation is merely inferential and that there is a greater amount of detail in the equation and trading mechanisms differentiating crude oil and refined product. But one cannot help but notice the parallels.

[AnneD]

26. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and Lurkers. Happy Cinco de Mayo. I don't know what other parts of the country celebrates this holiday-but it has grown to be a big one here (more than San Jacinto Day-oh the irony). My tomatoes are almost ripe , I have onions ready, and I have peppers out the wahzoo so I'll be making my own salsa soon.

I can't believe they are capping BP's liability. When are they going to cap their profits. BP has a bad rep here-I don't care how many green commercials they run. Saying it don't make it so. We have dealt with their exploding refineries. All it takes is one explosion and all of Pasadena or Texas City is vaporized. I think the best thing for the oil companies to do now is shut up and pony up. There is no need to gouge the consumer now-we are not in the mood for games. I hope the American people push back. The oil companies have basically taken a shit in our beds. If we don't hold them to clean it up-we are no better than a third world country -I am thinking Nigeria and the way oil companies work there.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[happyslug]

65. What the Mexicans hate the French more then the Texans hate Mexico???

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cinco_de_Mayo

The battle the is celebrated on Cinco de Mayo day (and is NOT a Federal holiday in Mexico, only in one State in Mexico):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Puebla

[hamerfan]

67. WA state fines BP refinery at Cherry Point for safety violations

$69,200. A less than drop in the bucket.


The BP Cherry Point refinery has been fined $69,200 for 13 safety violations that the Washington Department of Labor and Industries has labeled “serious.”
BP Cherry Point, located west of Ferndale, is the largest refinery in Washington, processing 225,000 barrels of crude oil per day.
In a press release, Labor and Industries said its inspection focused on the hydrocracker process unit, which refines low-grade oil into gasoline. Twelve of the violations involve regulations governing the management of highly hazardous chemicals. One of the violations involves a failure to provide proper machine guarding.


Read more: http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2010/05/05/1417857/state-fines-bp-refinery-at-cherry.html#ixzz0n5jROOFs

[Demeter]

7. Bernanke's Biggest Bailout By Mike Whitney

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article25380.htm

May 03, 2010 "Information Clearing House" - -The right-wing think-tank, the American Enterprise Institute, is helping the Federal Reserve to develop a strategy to transfer $1.25 trillion in toxic mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and non performing loans onto the public's balance sheet. Although it's unknown whether Fed chair Ben Bernanke will act on the AEI's recommendations, it does show that the Fed's Quantitative Easing program (QE)--which moved the bulk of garbage assets from the banks to the Fed's balance sheet--poses long-term problems that will need to be addressed. Bernanke never intended to keep these assets any longer than necessary. Now he is actively exploring options for getting rid of them.

Ostensibly, the QE program was designed as the first leg in a two-step process to remove the bad paper from the banks balance sheets and then dump it on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as discreetly as possible. So far, Bernanke has been relatively successful in convincing people that he was buying the assets to increase lending, which was clearly never the objective. Quantitative Easing was a fraud from the get-go. Here's an excerpt from the AEI's web page by the eerily-named "Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee" which explains what's going on:

"Freddie and Fannie have been placed in conservatorship and the Treasury has confirmed that their debt is now guaranteed by the U.S. Government. This means that their debt is essentially identical to Treasury debt. The Treasury could simply issue Treasury debt to Freddie and Fannie with the offsetting accounting transaction being an IOU to the U.S. Treasury. Freddie and Fannie could then swap the acquired Treasury debt for MBS held by the Federal Reserve. This transaction would have several desirable features. It would place housing debt on the books of Freddie and Fannie where it belongs and remove the Fed from financing U.S. housing policy, which is appropriately a fiscal policy and not a monetary policy function. This would also help to re-establish Federal Reserve independence from the Treasury and fiscal policy. Finally, it would free the Fed to devise strategies to reduce its balance sheet by engaging in more traditional asset sales in the much deeper Treasury market where the pricing impacts would be smaller and would accommodate a more rapid reduction in excess reserves." ("Mortgage Backed Securities in the Federal Reserve’s Portfolio" Shadow Statement No. 294, American Enterprise Institute)

So, there it is in black and white; the committee believes that the "transaction would have several desirable features. It would place housing debt on the books of Freddie and Fannie where it belongs and remove the Fed" from any further obligation. Naturally, the Fed will need an excuse to justify what-amounts-to another gigantic bailout. The AEI thinks that the fear of inflation will do the trick, and they are probably right. Expect the Fed to mobilize its allies in the media to launch a public relations campaign that focuses on the imminent threat of hyperinflation. That way--when Bernanke dumps more than a trillion dollars of toxic sludge into Uncle Sam's mortgage-recycling center--he'll only be performing his statutory duties to maintain price stability.

There's nothing fancy about the AEI's strategy; it's a pretty straightforward "no frills" ripoff. Bernanke buys the garbage from the banks and then transfers it to the GSE's. No muss, no fuss.

It's a shame that Congress can't figure this stuff out. Bernanke is merely acting as one would expect. He's bent-over-backwards to save the banks from nationalization and to keep their political and financial power intact. He's also usurped Congress's power over the purse-strings by initiating fiscal policy (in the purchasing of the toxic assets) which is well-beyond the Fed's mandate. Now he's putting the finishing touches on another giant bailout so he can clear the Fed's books and resume the arduous task of bubblemaking.

Is it really that hard for congress to figure out what's going on?

[Demeter]

9. Pertinent Quotes

"The terrible, cold, cruel part is Wall Street. Rivers of gold flow there
from all over the earth, and death comes with it. There, as nowhere else,
you feel a total absence of the spirit: herds of men who cannot count past
three, herds more who cannot get past six, scorn for pure science and
demoniacal respect for the present. And the terrible thing is that the crowd
that fills the street believes that the world will always be the same and
that it is their duty to keep that huge machine running, day and night,
forever." - Federico Garcia Lorca - Spanish Poet and
Playwright
=
"A collapse in U.S. stock prices certainly would cause a lot of white
knuckles on Wall Street. But what effect would it have on the broader U.S.
economy? If Wall Street crashes, does Main Street follow? Not necessarily".
- Ben Bernanke -
=
"Greed is good! Greed is right! Greed works! Greed will save the USA!" -
From movie Wall Street - 1987

[Po_d Mainiac]

45. A tune to set the mood (warning..the F bomb is used..Lots)

Open up the window, check out the view..and jump you f**kers
You're good at stealing and you're good at lying...now let's see how good you are at flyin

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yge311sFhC8&feature=player_embedded#at=146

[ozymandius]

11. Most European Stocks Drop as Concern Over Government Debt Levels Increases

Most European stocks declined as increasing concern that government debt levels will stall the economic recovery overshadowed a rally by basic-resource producers. Asian shares plummeted.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped less than 0.1 percent to 252.75 at 10:27 a.m. in London, as three stocks declined for each one that gained. The benchmark gauge for European shares erased its advance for the year yesterday on concern that the 110 billion-euro ($143 billion) rescue package for Greece will need to be extended to Spain and Portugal.

The euro region faces the danger of further debt crises because of its delay in bailing out Greece and the failure to prepare a system to rescue other nations, former Bank of England policy maker Sushil Wadhwani said. European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said there is a threat of “grave contagion effects” from the Greek fiscal crisis.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-05/european-stock-futures-rise-indicating-stoxx-600-rally-from-two-month-low.html

[ozymandius]

12. Merkel Urges German Parliament to Back Greece Aid, Warns Banks

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Chancellor Angela Merkel appealed to parliament to approve aid for Greece, saying the entire 110 billion-euro ($143 billion) Greek bailout and the euro’s stability lie in German hands.

In a speech to lawmakers in Berlin today urging them to back Germany’s 22.4 billion-euro contribution, Merkel coupled her plea with a demand for sanctions on countries with excessive deficits and said that banks can’t “shirk their responsibility” for the crisis.

Merkel, whose coalition has a majority in the lower and upper houses of parliament, aims to have both chambers approve Germany’s share of the bailout on May 7, the same day she heads to Brussels for a meeting of government leaders of the 16 euro nations. Merkel called two days ago for the European Union to study “orderly” defaults of states to ensure creditors participate in any future rescue.

In her speech to parliament, Merkel welcomed an offer by Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann and German financial companies yesterday to help Greece by refinancing maturing Greek debt and maintain existing credit lines. Yet she said banks can’t expect to make a deal with her government.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-05/merkel-urges-german-parliament-to-back-greece-aid-warns-banks.html

[ozymandius]

13. Greek Quarantine Tested as Spain Denounces Contagion (Update3)

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Investors are already testing the euro region’s efforts to contain the Greek crisis.

Greek bond yields have risen above their level before the government agreed on a European Union-led bailout on May 2 as escalating protests cast doubt on its ability to drive through austerity measures. Spanish and Portuguese bonds also renewed last week’s slide as investors question their ability to cut budget deficits. The extra yield that investors demand to hold Spanish debt over bunds today rose close to a 13-year high.

European governments are hoping that Greece’s 110 billion- euro bailout will stop a crisis that Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says threatens the currency’s survival. European Central Bank council member Axel Weber today warned about the “threat of grave contagion” as investors speculate that Spain and Portugal may also need aid.

While Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero dismissed such talk as “complete madness” yesterday, the risk premium on his country’s 10-year bonds rose to 126 basis points today. Spain’s benchmark IBEX Index, the euro region’s worst performer this year after Greece, fell 1 percent, extending yesterday’s 5.4 percent drop. Portugal’s spread increased to 270 basis points.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-05/greek-quarantine-tested-as-spain-denounces-contagion-update3-.html

[DemReadingDU]

28. Massive Greek strike grows violent

CNN version

5/5/10 Massive Greek strike grows violent, and video
Greek demonstrators threw bottles and sticks at police and riot police fired tear gas at the crowds as strikes over the country's economic austerity measures grew violent Wednesday. A mass of protesters made it onto the steps in front of the Greek parliament building early Wednesday afternoon before a line of riot police, wearing helmets and carrying shields, pushed them back. Police estimated that up to 25,000 workers were on the streets of Athens. Among them were teachers, bank employees and doctors.
more...
http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/europe/05/05/greece.strikes/index.html?hpt=T3


BBC version

5/5/10 Protests in Greek general strike turn violent, and video
Protests in Athens have turned violent amid a general strike over planned austerity measures that has brought the country to a standstill. Petrol bombs have been thrown at police who responded with pepper spray, tear gas and stun grenades. Smoke rose above the city skyline after a bank was set on fire and people were evacuated. Protesters are angered by spending cuts and tax rises planned in return for a 110bn euro (£95bn) bail-out for Greece. Parliament is to vote on the measures by the end of the week. Measures include wage freezes, pension cuts and tax rises. They aim to achieve fresh budget cuts of 30bn euros over three years, with the goal of cutting Greece's public deficit to less than 3% of GDP by 2014. It currently stands at 13.6%.
more...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8661385.stm

[DemReadingDU]

32. 3 dead during Greek riots

5/5/10 3 killed in bank fire during riots as Greeks demonstrate

Greek fire officials say three people have died in a blaze that broke out at an Athens bank during rioting over government austerity measures.

An estimated 100,000 people took to the streets Wednesday during a nationwide wave of strikes against spending cuts aimed at saving the country from bankruptcy.

Protesters were hurling Molotov cocktails at police and buildings. At least two buildings were on fire, while hundreds of people were involved in the clashes.

The government agreed to drastic budget cuts to win bailout loans from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-dead-during-Greek-apf-4019313165.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

[4dsc]

39. The Greek Tea Party??

Any similarities between these protesters and the GOP/teapartier's here?

[Dr.Phool]

42. The Reagan origin of the Tea Baggers.

Turbineguy came up with the revelation in another post a while back.

"If Reagan didn't turn them loose, they wouldn't be causing all of this trouble."

Now they're even running around Congress, and have TV and radio shows.

[DemReadingDU]

48. Link to Live Greek Webcast

5/5/10 Greek Attempt To Storm Parliament Rebuffed, 3 People Dead At Greek Bank Fire - The Revolution will Be Webcast

For those without access to CNN or BBC, you can watch the attempted storming of the Greek parliament live at this webcast. After confrontations got heated earlier with tear gas hot potatoes being thrown between citizens and riot police, things have moderated somewhat now, although riot police has still completely encircled the parliament building. Full link here. In the meantime, we are seeing confirmed reports that 3 people have died after a firebomb went off at a Marfin bank branch.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greek-attempt-storm-parliament-rebuffed-3-people-dead-greek-bank-fire

[Joe Chi Minh]

58. Wouldn't you get ratty, if they stopped you retiring at 53...!!! Tee hee.

[Ghost Dog]

53. Roubini Greek Plans A & B; US Stocks Decline as Greek Concern Outweighs Economy

May 5 (Bloomberg) – U.S. stocks retreated after erasing an earlier loss, as concern that European government debt levels will derail the global recovery overshadowed growth in U.S. service industries and jobs.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.3 percent to 1,169.76 as of 12:50 p.m. in New York, resuming a decline after Nouriel Roubini said the U.S. economy will weaken in the second half of the year...

...“The credit fears are dominating the market,” Mark Bronzo, an Irvington, New York-based fund manager at Security Global Investors, said. “There’s still concern about Greece and whether the package will be sufficient and avoid spreading to Portugal and Spain.”

/... http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-05/stock-index-futures-are-little-changed-alcoa-exxon-shares-fall-in-europe.html

As regards the Greek situation Roubini says:

The market’s lukewarm reaction to the financing package confirms RGE’s view that a traditional financing package (Plan A), extended at unsustainable interest rates, will not allay solvency fears but rather will lead to a disorderly outcome and contagion. RGE has therefore consistently argued for a preemptive debt restructuring via maturity extension (Plan B) as the preferable solution for Greece. On May 4, Greek authorities confirmed that they contacted the investment bank Lazard for financial advice, but they categorically ruled out debt restructuring as an option under discussion.

Plan A includes the following core elements: €80 billion in bilateral loans will be provided by the eurozone at annual interest rates of about 5%, according to a previously negotiated formula, and €30 billion (i.e. 32 times quota) by the IMF through a standard stand-by arrangement. Although some eurozone member states—including Germany, which is facing regional elections on May 9—still have to ratify the unpopular disbursement, a new consensus has emerged among authorities and opposition that the main issue is not Greece per se but the gathering contagion to the rest of the eurozone. Unanimous approval by eurozone heads of state is due on May 7 at a special summit, following fresh reports that the Slovak government is holding up the disbursement for domestic election purposes.

The additional measures agreed by the Greek authorities will result in a front-loaded fiscal retrenchment of about 11 percentage points of GDP over three years with the aim to reducing the deficit below 3% of GDP by 2014. About half of the deficit reduction will come from expenditure cuts, the other half from tax increases and a broadening of the tax base, including from previously undocumented income. Greek authorities have accordingly revised down their growth forecast to -4.0% in 2010 and -2.6% in 2011 for a cumulative GDP volume retrenchment of 8.6% starting 2009. The debt ratio is expected to continue increasing, peaking at almost 150% of GDP by 2013 before starting to decline in 2014. The IMF will monitor the implementation of the program through quarterly reviews.

In the banking sector, €15 billion of the rescue package is earmarked for a “financial stabilization fund” aimed at credibly backing up the remaining €17 billion of the total €28 billion pledged by the authorities after the Lehman fallout. The major banks have already been downgraded to junk status by S&P, and other rating agencies might follow suit. Importantly, against previous assurances that the ECB would not ease the rules for one country alone, in an unprecedented U-turn the ECB has decided to suspend the minimum rating threshold for any Greek collateral with the ultimate aim to encourage investors to hold on to their investment. Indeed, as of the end of 2009, European banks hold claims of US$193 billion on Greece and more than US$1 trillion of further claims on Portugal, Ireland and Spain. It cannot be ruled out that the ECB will eventually have to resort to more aggressive measures such as buying government bonds in the secondary market in order to stop the contagion. While remaining reluctant, Jean-Claude Trichet has refrained from categorically ruling out anything at this point.

Conspicuously absent in a package of this magnitude is a private sector involvement (PSI) mechanism. One example would be to formally require banks to keep rolling over their loans to Greek banks and to the government rather than taking advantage of official financing to reduce their overall exposure. Indeed, S&P calculated that losses on Greek bonds might amount to over 50% in case of a default. In view of a potential request by the German opposition to include a mandatory PSI before agreeing to the disbursement, Spiegel magazine reports that Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackermann has reportedly offered to pledge as much as €500bn in credit to Greece on the same conditions as for the German government. Allianz is in talks about €300bn and Munchner Re might provide €200bn more. Other companies and countries might follow suit on a voluntary basis.

A “Plan B” model like the one RGE supports would give the periphery countries the opportunity to put their fiscal houses in order and push through the necessary structural reforms while benefiting from the enhanced financing package. The EMU also needs to revamp its institutional framework by devising an orderly debt restructuring mechanism at the least. It is important to be clear that if the planned fiscal adjustment under plan A fails to materialize, there might not be enough funding left to implement Plan B; thus, it is better to use official resources to absorb the collateral damage of a debt restructuring rather than wasting official resources to finance the exit of some private investors that will eventually not prevent an unavoidable debt restructuring.

...And as regards the Spanish situation, the media/market pressure has at least forced the leader of the rightwing PP opposition Rajoy to meet with PSOE President Zapatero today, and they say there is now political agreement between the two parties to push for consolidation of the savings bank sector by the summer... Zapatero has been requesting discussion and cooperation on economic measures from the PP for months now, so this has to be positive. In many areas the balance of forces is such that such bipartisan (and multi-partisan, with other regional parties) political agreement is often necessary before changes can be made.

[Ghost Dog]

66. CDS report: Not Just Academic (FT Alphaville)

FT Alphaville on May 05 18:30.



The sovereign CDS markets started off wider today but did tighten up a bit from session wides in the latter half of the day. Moody’s announced that Portugal’s Aa2 rating was on review for a possible downgrade for one to two notches. The rating agency cited deterioration in the government’s debt metrics and slow growth as reasons although they noted that the “government’s debt is neither unsustainable nor unbearable”. There were also reports that four German professors filed a lawsuit to prevent Germany from contributing its portion of aid to the Greece bailout package. While ordinarly a story like that would not move markets at all, it underscores how sensitive the markets are currently to the risks involved in the execution of the package. Imagine multiple lawsuits across multiple jurisdictions. It only takes a temporary injunction or two…

European Council President Herman Van Rompuy was quick to pronounce market moves in Spain and Portugal as “totally irrational”. If he is right, we have gone from “irrational exuberance” to “irrational dejection”. With spreads widening out since the formal announcement of the aid package this weekend, the market seems concerned that the extension of aid itself may provide a perverse incentive to sovereigns to be less aggressive in their implementation of austerity reforms. Of course, only time will tell but the markets seem to be contemplating this question in its price movements.

CDS for both the UK and Germany widened a bit further today as the market tries to quantify to how far problems in the peripherals will reach. Like yesterday the changes in levels seemed independent of the elections.

/... http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/05/05/220716/cds-report-not-just-academic/

"The changes in levels seemed independent of the elections"... And yet, in UK, the supposedly frightening Greek example being held up before telespectators' eyes undoubtedly helps the Conservative Party campaign, mobilising the various anti-euro, pro-City oligarchy, anti-tax constituencies it represents.

[Demeter]

68. Thing Is, There's Nothing Rational About Fraud

Fraud is designed to confound rational decisions--to throw planning into chaos, to throw fact into the fire.

And in the confusion, the thieves rob everybody blind.

So the irrational exuberance was a direct result of fraud, the irrational negativity is the direct result of fraud making the system unstable and unworkable, and Obama's irrational thinking is not helping any.

The only thing rational about fraud is getting away with the loot--for how long and how far.

Bernie Madoff didn't ultimately succeed. Nor did the Stanford guy. Nor will the boys at Goldman and their rivals.

But in the meanwhile, everybody takes a beating, and society ceases to function.

[ozymandius]

15. US Treasury website hacked, then suspended

WASHINGTON (AFP) – A website of the US Treasury's Bureau of Engraving and Printing (BEP) was suspended Tuesday after it was hacked, a BEP spokeswoman said.

"The hosting company used by the Bureau of Engraving and Printing had an intrusion and as a result of that intrusion, numerous websites (BEP and non-BEP) were affected," Claudia Dickens told AFP.

She said the BEP website and four internet addresses (URLs) pointing to it -- BEP.gov, BEP.treas.gov, Moneyfactory.gov and Moneyfactory.com -- have been suspended until further notice.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100505/ts_alt_afp/usgovernmentcrimeinternet

[Demeter]

16. Foreclosures: Salt Lake hardest hit in mortgage crisis

http://www.sltrib.com/ci_14980974?IADID=Search-www.sltrib.com-www.sltrib.com

When it comes to foreclosures, Salt Lake City is the worst of the worst.

The metro area had the largest percentage increase in foreclosure filings the past year among more than 50 communities hardest hit by the nation's foreclosure crisis, a new report shows.

Owners of 5,155 local properties received a foreclosure-related notice in the first quarter, 101 percent higher than the same period in 2009, according to RealtyTrac, a company that tracks foreclosures nationally. In the U.S., foreclosure filings rose only 16 percent. Many of the other metro areas with high levels of distressed properties actually saw their foreclosure rates fall from the super-high levels of last year.

As for the rate of foreclosures-related filings, one in every 77 of all housing units in the Salt Lake area, or 1.3 percent, received a notice in the first three months of the year, RealtyTrac said. That's the 35th-highest rate of filings among all 206 metro areas in the RealtyTrac report, up from No. 62 in the first quarter 2009 and No. 107 in the first quarter 2008.

Provo-Orem was No. 34, while Ogden-Clearfield was No. 53.

RealtyTrac said Salt Lake's growing foreclosure-filings rate demonstrates how the problem has spread in a big way from cities in California, Arizona and Nevada into other once-booming areas. Utah, which in the mid-2000s had one of the most robust economies and lowest foreclosure rates now has the fifth-highest rate of foreclosure filings of all states, behind only Nevada, Arizona, Florida and California....GEE, MICHIGAN DOESN'T MAKE THE LIST ANYMORE? NOR OHIO?

[Demeter]

19. Angry Americans March on Wall Street Video Report - RussiaToday

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article25350.htm

[ozymandius]

20. Mathematicians – Not Economists – Should Run the Fed

Ritholtz:

“A number of folks are expressing growing concern about potential overbuilding and worrisome speculation in the real estate markets, especially in Florida . . . Entire condo projects and upscale residential lots are being pre-sold before any construction, with buyers freely admitting that they have no intention of occupying the units or building on the land but rather are counting on ‘flipping’ the properties — selling them quickly at higher prices.”

-Jack Guynn, then president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

“I don’t want to leave the impression that we think there’s a huge housing bubble. We believe a lot of the rise in house prices is rooted in fundamentals.”

-Stephen D. Oliner, Fed researcher

For the longest time, I was astonished at what looked like gross incompetence and utter lack of comprehension at the US Federal Reserve. I previously found it mind boggling.

I no longer get upset over this, as I have discovered the fundamental flaw of the Federal Reserve errors. Wore than easy money, worse than Greenspan’s “flawed” ideology, is a simple error that the Fed keeps making.

Math.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05/mathematicians-should-run-the-fed/

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

40. Innumerate.

Except when it comes to their personal accounting.

:think:

[ozymandius]

22. It's time to go to work.

I hope you have a nice day. I will check back when the school day is over.

love,
ozymandius :hi:

[Demeter]

23. Yeah, Me Too

Don't fall for any shell games!

[Roland99]

27. At work already, myself

And feeling a bit happier. Got an email last night that we're conditionally approved thru the lender's underwriter. Just need to give them the homeowner's insurance info (which I'll call today about) and had to email a signed copy of the Truth-in-Lending document and then they'll send off for final approval (I assume that means to the USDA, which is supposed to run out of funds on Fri. unless the Senate votes on its version of H.R. 5017 - Bennet (D-CO) is sponsoring the Senate version)

[UpInArms]

30. working, too

:hi:

[Dr.Phool]

35. Work!?!?!?

:scared: :scared:

Maynard G. Krebs

[Tansy_Gold]

38. u u u u u u u u u u u

Lurch

[TalkingDog]

56. See, you are showing your age.

Poor Maynard. Got a job on the worlds smallest tour boat, ended up stranded on an island which obviously was rife with the Ganja and ended up with a spleef flavored monkey on his back.


That's the life.

[UpInArms]

25. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

83.702 +0.403 (+0.52%)

Oil Prices Weaken After Four Days of Gains, Gold Destined for $1,200

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2010-05-04-1622-Oil_Prices_Weaken_After_Four.html

Crude has come under pressure as the US dollar posts fresh 2010 highs following the rise in risk appetite over the past 24 hours. Additionally, the decision by the People’s Bank of China to further raise the reserve requirement ratio over the weekend is capping bullish momentum at the present moment as the region digests the news and tries to estimate if there will be a slowdown in the surging Chinese economy, which will certainly effect crude demand.

Commodities – Energy

Oil Prices Weaken After Four Days of Gains, Gold Destined for $1,200.

Crude Oil (LS NYMEX) - $84.70/bbl

Crude oil prices have lost momentum today as fears over demand related to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe are weighing on the topside. Earlier this week, Greece accepted the bailout from the IMF and the EU worth $146 billion in order to avert default and prevent the countries debt crisis from spreading through the rest of the bloc. However, markets reacted negatively to the announcement, causing the euro decline and crude oil prices to pull back from overnight highs, and leading both to continue its southern journey on Tuesday. Many traders are speculating that the bailout is not enough and despite what EU members may publicized, inventors believe that the crisis has already spread onto other EU members similarly to what OECD’s Secretary General Gurria refers to as “Ebola.” Indeed, Crude has also come under pressure as the US dollar posts fresh 2010 highs following the rise in risk appetite over the past 24 hours. Additionally, the decision by the People’s Bank of China to further raise the reserve requirement ratio over the weekend is capping bullish momentum at the present moment as the region digests the news and tries to estimate if there will be a slowdown in the surging Chinese economy, which will certainly effect crude demand. Despite all the negative factors and a general pull back in risk aversion today, prices have been holding up relatively well in such volatile conditions and we may see price action test the yearly high of $87.28/bbl before retreating back to $80/bbl if European woes let up. Looking ahead, the fundamentals of supply and demand are surely to weigh on the crude prices.

Crude Futures (240 Minute)


Commodities – Metals

Spot Gold - $1,186.77/oz

The disconnect in the commodities bloc continues and has been magnified by today’s renewed sovereign debt fears. Gold looks well on its way to $1,200 as the yellow metal continues to shine vs. non-USD currencies, as it moves in tandem with the dollar. Historically a rare occurrence but certainly a valid correlation as investors use the two as safe haven assets. Gold is being viewed by the masses as an asset class that will survive the brewing storm in Europe and is not liable to volatile movements like paper based assets. The steep hike in Australia’s mining resource tax was one small negative impulse not only for gold but all metals, but seems unlikely to affect the overall up trend.

Spot Silver - $18.03/oz

Through early morning trading (Asian and European sessions) silver prices headed south to only pick pace during the North America trade as risk appetite lost its footing. Ultimately, the cheaper metal is expected to end the day to the downside, erasing three days of gains. Even more troublesome, the U.S. dollar would enjoy its own advance on safe haven flows and further pull silver down.

Spot Gold (Daily)


...more...

Opening Comment 05.05

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/opening_comment/2010-05-05-0501-Opening_Comment_05_05.html

There has been no sign of a slowing in the market deterioration this week, with currencies, equities and commodities all being heavily weighed down by a number of significant risk events.
The threat of the Greek contagion into other economies (Spain the latest), softer Chinese data and a tightening from the PBOC, and a criminal probe into Goldman Sachs, are all negative events spread out across the globe that have weighed heavily on risk appetite. As a result, we have seen a massive flight to safety in the form of the USD, with the Euro, Swissie and even Yen all taking considerable hits and tracking to fresh 2010 lows against the Greenback. Even the commodity bloc currencies have been influenced, with Aussie, Cad and Kiwi all finding heavy offers in Tuesday trade. The VIX jumped up by close to 20% on Tuesday and market participants are feeling a similar sense of panic as had been felt post-Lehman.

While all major currencies are down against the buck on Wednesday thus far, the Aussie has managed to outperform on a relative basis, with the antipodean finding some bids on the back of a solid round of local data, with the performance of services index and building approvals exceeding expectations.

In our opinion, the USD is now very well positioned to extend gains across the board, with the single currency potentially benefitting in both risk averse and risk inclined markets. While a risk averse market should force USD appreciation on a flight to safety, any improvement in risk appetite could now also benefit the buck, which stands to gain on a Fed that is required to adopt a more hawkish monetary policy and thereby look to raise rates, which would in turn narrow yield differentials back in favor of the Dollar. As such, we remain USD bulls and would look to continue to buy the Greenback over the medium-term.

Looking ahead, German PMI (55.0 expected) is due at 7:55GMT immediately followed by Eurozone PMI (57.3 expected) at 8:00GMT. UK PMI (53.4 expected) is then out at 8:30GMT, with Eurozone retail sales (0.1% expected)

...more...

[Roland99]

29. 8:19 - Futures - Wayward Wednesday (and ADP reports jobs up 32k)

S&P 500 1,169 -3.30 -0.28%
DOW 10,865 -27.00 -0.25%
NASDAQ 1,962 -8.00 -0.41%

[Dr.Phool]

34. Looks like a bloodbath forming.

8:46am

S&P.....-7.80

Nas.....-11.25

Dow.....-65.00

Europe and Asian markets deep in Red.

[Robbien]

37. Euro just fell through $1.29. Right now its at $1.2880

Not pretty


And over in Greece the riots are getting dangerous. Reports vary of three to ten people trapped in a burning bank.

[Po_d Mainiac]

46. That dollar carry-trade might be leaving a few scars n/t

[Robbien]

33. JPMorgan Chase Memo Sneers At 'Ignorant' Senators, 'Time For The Grownups To Step In'

A top executive at JPMorgan Chase told clients Monday that senators displayed "an unnerving ignorance of fundamental principles of market economics" during last week's Goldman Sachs hearing, that "Goldman was no more culpable in the housing debacle than Congress" -- and lest he didn't insult Congress enough, with "the financial reform debate...in the final innings, it's time for the grownups to step in."

The note, written by James E. Glassman, a managing director and senior economist at the $2 trillion bank, included shots at U.S. Senator Carl Levin of Michigan (a graph showing Michigan's job woes was titled "People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones"), the entire Congress, and pretty much everyone involved in the financial reform debate.

<snip>

UPDATE at 1:45 p.m. ET:

A JPMorgan Chase spokesman apologized for the memo in a note to Politico.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/04/jpmorgan-chase-memo-goldman_n_562459.html

Someone at JPMorgan got his widdle feelings hurt.

[mbperrin]

49. Sometimes, these folks seem just like junior high.

I swear.

[Robbien]

36. Illinois House passed a bill saying tire burning is part of state's renewable energy plan

If passed by the Senate, a power plant that generates electricity by incinerating tires would get incentives originally intended for companies developing pollution-free wind and solar power.

Tire burning is dirty. Real dirty if the company is not diligent in its pollution capturing measures.

The tire burning plant in the center of this bill has been fined in the last couple of years at least four times by the EPA for polluting. Since we all know how lax the EPA is, being fined even once is a big deal.

This is a Democratic sponsored bill.

[Po_d Mainiac]

47. This has gotten to be commonplace

Statutes in many States require X% of power to come from so-called renewable sources. Over time the %age increases.

Problem: Actual renewable forms of energy have not kept pace with statutory demand. Solution: rewrite the RPS (renewable portfolio standard) to include waste incineration. Problem solved! (unless you like Mother Nature) :grr:

Dig into the issue and you'll find firms like Waste Management and Casella (at least on the East side of the Mississippi) are prime drivers.

I lost the better part of 2 years fighting a proposed incinerator. (With success BTW <grin>) The whole waste/renewable scam is gut wrenching

[truedelphi]

70. Great to hear abt your success.

not so good to hear abt the report of the creative minds thinking up new ways to call polluting energy sources "renewable." Sounds so green, doesn't it?

[Roland99]

41. 9:43am - Heading downward quickly

Dow 10,830 -97 -0.89%
Nasdaq 2,387 -38 -1.55%
S&P 500 1,160 -14 -1.16%
GlobalDow 1,909 -34 -1.73%
Gold 1,159 -10 -0.87%
Oil 79.65 -3.08 -3.72% (down, what 7% total since yesterday?)
Euro /$1US 1.2834 -0.0139
$1US / Yen 94.3700 -0.2900
Pound / $1US 1.5094 -0.0040
10-yr T-bond 3.55 -0.04


Is it ok for me to take a bit of joy in this as I need to fill up my car (gas had hit $2.95 but dropped to $2.89 this morning and will probably drop more aaannnd, if yields drop, maybe I can get a slight cut in my mortgage interest rate before closing is set. :) )

[Tansy_Gold]

43. Roland, I just want to tell you how happy I am that your life seems to

have turned around so well over the past several months.

Good for you!!!

:yourock:


Tansy Gold

[Roland99]

50. Thanks a mil!

I guess I love waiting periods of various types. Now we're waiting a week for the appraisal to come back. It will be 10 more days probably before being submitted to the USDA! ARGH! Their funds are supposed to run dry this Friday, if the Senate doesn't move on their version of the House bill.

Hoping all the pieces fall into place properly somehow. :)

[DemReadingDU]

52. USDA, for a house?

or are you buying a farm?

[Roland99]

57. Managed to find one of the rare developments on the fringe of Orlando that qualifies.

It's actually quite rural and I guess some might call it exurbs but it's closer to downtown than where I am now in Seminole County.

Part of their 502 Loan Guarantee Program. I sneaked under the income guideline by $580 and the development is about 1/2 mile west of the line marking eligible/ineligible areas...it's about 10 min. north of Disney and once ya head out and south, it's all open land. There's even a huge riding stables not far away that have my gf's daughters excited beyond compare (they took riding lessons regularly before they moved out here)

$0 down, seller is covering all closing costs, and house was discounted 6% (new construction). Plus I qualify for the $8k tax credit as long as we close by June 30. It's a deal I would have never thought I could land considering 3 weeks ago I wasn't even thinking of buying a house. lol

Total housing costs (PITI+small HOA fee - <$50/mo) is about $200 more than what we were going to pay in rent. Couldn't pass it up!

[DemReadingDU]

61. That's great!

I'm not sure I have ever heard of this program before. You're lucky to have found it. Congratulations!

[Roland99]

63. I hadn't heard of it either. Just happened upon it....

while reading some credit board to help me clear some old/inaccurate entries off my credit report and they had a mortgage section and I saw mention of that and thought...hmm...worth a shot. Looked up the maps on the USDA property eligibility site and lo and behold, we were golden. :)

I've also since found out there are myriad county housing authority programs in pretty much every state that offer programs similar to the FHA but which also include down payment assistance (verboten for FHA, well, w/a specific exception).

[ozymandius]

69. That's wonderful!

The news you share, possibly big and ever-so small, puts a shine on just about everything. Good on ya!

[Festivito]

44. Debt: 05/03/2010 12,927,020,546,327.13 (DOWN 21,718,369,529.73) (Mon)

(Down a bit after being up big at end of month. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,430,105,244,349.23 + 4,496,915,301,977.90
DOWN 4,329,381,263.93 + DOWN 17,388,988,265.80

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,194,577 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,808.69.
A family of three owes $125,426.07. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 7,466,970,309.56.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,475,778,227.01.
The average for the last 31 days would be 5,299,140,219.69.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 147 reports in 215 days of FY2010 averaging 6.92B$ per report, 4.73B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 993 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
05/03/2010 12,927,020,546,327.13 BHO (UP 2,300,143,497,414.05 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,017,191,542,815.40 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,726,860,061,058.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/13/2010 -000,086,542,536.22 ----
04/14/2010 +000,857,281,039.39 ------------********
04/15/2010 +039,328,943,525.65 ------------**********
04/16/2010 -000,121,400,113.90 ---
04/19/2010 -017,215,897,730.16 - Mon
04/20/2010 +000,349,194,756.21 ------------********
04/21/2010 +000,180,306,016.37 ------------********
04/22/2010 -015,686,359,446.12 -
04/23/2010 -000,156,047,055.50 ---
04/26/2010 +000,019,005,411.26 ------------******* Mon
04/27/2010 +000,734,843,937.10 ------------********
04/28/2010 -000,020,446,125.69 ----
04/29/2010 -019,519,315,418.04 -
04/30/2010 +098,427,087,705.17 ------------**********
05/03/2010 -004,329,381,263.93 -- Mon

82,761,272,701.59 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4367069&mesg_id=4367202

[Festivito]

62. Debt: 05/04/2010 12,940,953,934,792.90 (UP 13,933,388,465.77) (Tue)

(Up a little. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,430,148,415,124.48 + 4,510,805,519,668.42
UP 43,170,775.25 + UP 13,890,217,690.52

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,201,224 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,852.85.
A family of three owes $125,558.56. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 7,748,118,925.05.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,940,224,509.21.
The average for the last 32 days would be 5,568,960,477.38.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 148 reports in 216 days of FY2010 averaging 6.97B$ per report, 4.77B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 992 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 18.5T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
05/04/2010 12,940,953,934,792.90 BHO (UP 2,314,076,885,879.82 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,031,124,931,281.20 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,742,410,184,803.88 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/14/2010 +000,857,281,039.39 ------------********
04/15/2010 +039,328,943,525.65 ------------**********
04/16/2010 -000,121,400,113.90 ---
04/19/2010 -017,215,897,730.16 - Mon
04/20/2010 +000,349,194,756.21 ------------********
04/21/2010 +000,180,306,016.37 ------------********
04/22/2010 -015,686,359,446.12 -
04/23/2010 -000,156,047,055.50 ---
04/26/2010 +000,019,005,411.26 ------------******* Mon
04/27/2010 +000,734,843,937.10 ------------********
04/28/2010 -000,020,446,125.69 ----
04/29/2010 -019,519,315,418.04 -
04/30/2010 +098,427,087,705.17 ------------**********
05/03/2010 -004,329,381,263.93 -- Mon
05/04/2010 +000,043,170,775.25 ------------*******

82,890,986,013.06 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4368707&mesg_id=4368928

[Roland99]

51. 12:35pm - 'tis but a scratch

Dow 10,918 -9 -0.08%
Nasdaq 2,411 -14 -0.57%
S&P 500 1,172 -1 -0.11%
GlobalDow 1,926 -16 -0.83%
Gold 1,173 +4 +0.33%
Oil 80.82 -1.92 -2.32%

[cbdo2007]

54. Well at least it isn't turning out as bad as yesterday....that one hurt....

But maybe we'll see an afternoon rally to bring us back into the positive? *crosses fingers*

[TalkingDog]

55. HousingWire: Commercial Mortgage Delinquency Soars. (with requisite SCARY chart)

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/05/04/commercial-mortgage-delinquency-soars-to-historic-high/

The delinquency rate among commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) topped 8% to yet another historical high in April, according to the latest data from analytics firm Trepp.

[Robbien]

59. Blankfein: We Will Be Among The Biggest Beneficiaries Of Financial Reform

Critics of financial reform have repeatedly argued that in the end, this will benefit the big boys, like Goldman Sachs.

Well, here's more grist for the mill.

On his conference call with private wealth management clients, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein addressed financial reform.

He's not worried. He said: "We will be among the biggest beneficiaries of reform."

So there you go.

http://www.businessinsider.com/lloyd-blankfein-we-will-be-among-the-biggest-benificaries-of-financial-reform-2010-5


Reform: code word for the rich have found another way to pick your pocket

[truedelphi]

71. Shouldn't have let myself read your post right before going off to bed.

My insomnia doesn't need much to get going, and that is quite a lot, right there.

Fucking Blankfein.

[Robbien]

60. 18-wheeler explodes at San Antonio refinery

SAN ANTONIO — An 18-wheeler being loaded with fuel at a San Antonio refinery exploded Wednesday, setting off a chain reaction of smaller explosions and sending a giant plume of black smoke over the city's southeast side.

San Antonio fire spokeswoman Deborah Foster said authorities were trying to account for all 100 employees at the AGE Refining Inc. facility and were evacuating residents within a one-mile radius. It was not immediately clear whether anyone had been killed or how many were injured, though at least some workers were being treated at the scene, she said.

She did not know the condition of the truck driver, who was loading fuel at a tank late Wednesday morning when the blast occurred.

"What's bad is that he was at a fueling spot," said Foster, who noted that other trucks and drivers were in the area. "We've heard some minor explosions as we've stood here."

Foster said fire crews immediately sprayed foam to tamp down the flames because water is useless against a petroleum fire. They were bringing more foam in as fast as they could, but the fire could burn for some time.

Foster said that allowing the fire to burn out on its own would be a difficult call because the smoke is black and acrid and there are a cluster of apartment buildings nearby.

AGE marketing director Jeff Dorrow confirmed that a truck exploded at the refinery that handles about 14,000 barrels per day, but he had no other immediate details.

AGE, which runs only the San Antonio facility, is a small refiner and is currently operating under bankruptcy protection.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jYkAyfTB-gAvN27Vp6Uy-96rPlcgD9FGR9P00

[Roland99]

64. great...so much for gas going down as oil drops below $80/bbl. Hope everyone's ok, though.