STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday March 31

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday March 31, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 30, 2010

Dow... 10,907.42 +11.56 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq... 2,410.69 +6.33 (+0.26%)
S&P 500... 1,173.27 +0.05 (+0.00%)
Gold future... 1,111 +5.10 (+0.46%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.86 -0.01 (-0.21%)
30-Year Bond 4.74 -0.02 (-0.50%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:15 ADP Employment Change Mar
Briefing.com 0K
Consensus 40K
Prior -20K

09:45 Chicago PMI Mar
Briefing.com 61.7
Consensus 61.0
Prior 62.6

10:00 Factory Orders Feb
Briefing.com 0.8%
Consensus 0.5%
Prior 1.7%

10:30 Crude Inventories 03/27
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 7.25M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

14. March ADP shows continued job losses (down 23,000)

U.S. March ADP below consensus up 40,000 8:15 a.m. Today
U.S. March ADP employment down 23,000 8:15 a.m. Today

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/march-adp-shows-continued-job-losses-2010-03-31

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Companies in the U.S. private sector shed 23,000 jobs in March, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday. The report comes two days before the Labor Department reports on nonfarm payroll growth for March. The decline in ADP employment was a surprise. Economists had forecast a gain of 40,000 in March ADP. Economists are also expecting a sizable jump in nonfarm payroll in March. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists is for an increase of 189,000 in nonfarm payrolls. The ADP report does not include federal workers. Many economists expect a surge in federal workers related to the 2010 Census. Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC that prepares the ADP report said nonfarm payroll could still jump in March if there is a reversal of the depressed hiring from the winter weather in February and from hiring of census workers. The ADP report does not capture changes in the weather.

[jschurchin]

15. Not to worry.

The "twilight zone" market will go up 45 points on this news. Bad news is good news and good news is good news. We are "only" $12.6 Trillion in debt, so why worry.

[Gen. Jack D. Ripper]

16. I think it's more like...

bad news is good news, less bad news is great news, and good news is a sign from God that a recovery is imminent.

[Demeter]

18. When Even Your Most Fanciful Numbers Come Up Red--You Are In BIG Trouble

as if this was news to anyone here....

[ozymandius]

2. Oil hovers above $82 after mixed US supply report

...
Crude inventories rose last week by 421,000 barrels, the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday. Analysts had expected an increase of 2.7 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

Inventories of gasoline and distillates fell less than expected, the API said.

The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration is scheduled to announce its supply report later Wednesday.

Some analysts say surging crude demand in China and the rest of Asia is offsetting sluggish consumption in the U.S. and Europe and justifies higher oil prices. ...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Home prices inch up, but analysts fear rebound is fading

Home prices rose modestly in January, according to a closely watched index released Tuesday, but some housing industry analysts remain concerned about the sustainability of the housing sector rebound.

Home prices in 20 cities tracked by the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index rose 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in January compared with December. That was the eighth consecutive monthly increase in the index. Compared with the same period a year earlier, prices were down 0.7 percent. ...

The Case-Shiller index measures a three-month average of home prices, so January's report includes data from November, when homes sales were strong, helping blunt price declines. Also, in four markets -- Charlotte, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa -- prices fell to new lows since the financial crisis on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, according to the report. Overall, home prices remain at 2003 levels. ....

Home sales have been weak since a tax credit for first-time home buyers was initially scheduled to expire in November. Existing-home sales have fallen 23 percent since then, for example. Congress extended the tax credit, giving buyers until April 30 to sign a contract for a home, and expanded it to more buyers. But "the second credit, up to now, is having minimal effects," said Patrick Newport, an economist with IHS Global Insight.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/30/AR2010033001280.html?hpid=topnews

[ozymandius]

6. 30 days and counting: Homebuyer tax credit expires

....
First-time homebuyers may qualify for up to $8,000, while those who are trading up could get as much as $6,500. But either way, buyers have to ink sales contracts by the end of April and close before July 1 to see the refund. ....

There is little sentiment for continuing this program, especially because many consider the latest iteration's results to be disappointing. Even the Senate's biggest proponent of the homebuyer tax credit, Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., is ready to let it end.

"He has no plans to introduce legislation to extend the credit," said Isakson's spokeswoman. "Part of the benefit of the tax credit was the urgency its sun-setting generated."

That urgency was less pronounced after the latest extension, which was enacted last fall. While the first version, which just covered first-time homebuyers, netted huge sales jumps, the real estate market slumped over the winter and early spring.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/03/30/pf/taxes/homebuyers_last_chance/index.htm

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Moribund sales as a net sum result of this attempt to re-inflate the bubble should be enough reason to let this plan expire.

[ozymandius]

4. Euro-Zone Jobless Rate Climbs

LONDON—The unemployment rate in the 16 countries that use the euro rose to its highest level for more than 11 years in February, official data showed Wednesday, suggesting the recovery still isn't strong enough to prevent companies from cutting jobs.

The jobless rate rose to 10% in February from 9.9% in the previous three months, marking the highest level since August 1998, said European Union statistics agency Eurostat.

The fresh increase in the unemployment rate after three months of stability suggests that companies across the euro zone are still suffering from weak demand even though the economy returned to growth in the third quarter of last year. With so many people out of work, the data also suggest that retail sales are unlikely to recover quickly.

But more up-to-date figures released by Germany's federal labor agency earlier Wednesday showed that the number of people registered as unemployed in the euro zone's biggest economy dropped by 31,000 in March, defying expectations of a 10,000 increase.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304252704575155241946246422.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[Ghost Dog]

19. EU urges Germany to stimulate domestic demand

(BRUSSELS) - The EU Commission on Wednesday called on Germany to stimulate demand in its domestic private sector, amid concern that Europe's biggest economy is too driven by its trade surpluses.

In a quarterly report on the eurozone, the EU's executive arm called more generally for reforms to even out the wide differences in competitiveness among member states.

...

Several European officials have recently stressed the strong divergence within the 16-nation eurozone of the current account surplus haves and have nots.

Germany at one end and debt-laden Greece at the other demonstrate the differences involved, with calls to stimulate spending in the former and austerity measures and bailout plans for the other.

France recently urged its big exporting neighbour Germany to cut taxes in order to stimulate domestic demand, amid growing tensions within Europe over how to balance the eurozone economy.

Germany, the world's biggest net exporter after China, is clinging to its traditional economic model of maintaining large domestic savings and huge external trade surpluses, to the frustration of its eurozone partners.

"An improvement in domestic consumption could, in particular, help us in terms of our exports towards Germany, which is our most important economic partner," French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said on March 15.

...

Such divergences have fuelled calls, in particular from Berlin and Paris, for an "economic government" for Europe, an idea that is anathema to Britain.

The commission is treading a fine line between championing Europe's free trade principles and seeking to avoid the kind of divergences which some fear could tear the eurozone asunder.

/... http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/germany-economy.3yh

[ozymandius]

5. Irish Banks Need $43 Billion on ‘Appalling’ Lending (Update4)

...
The fund-raising requirement was announced after the National Asset Management Agency said it will apply an average discount of 47 percent on the first block of loans it is buying from lenders as part of a plan to revive the financial system. The central bank set new capital buffers for Allied Irish Banks Plc and Bank of Ireland Plc and gave them 30 days to say how they will raise the funds. ....

Dublin-based Allied Irish needs to raise 7.4 billion euros to meet the capital targets, while cross-town rival Bank of Ireland will need 2.66 billion euros. Anglo Irish Bank Corp., nationalized last year, may need as much 18.3 billion euros. Customer-owned lenders Irish Nationwide and EBS will need 2.6 billion euros and 875 million euros, respectively. ....

The asset agency aims to cleanse banks of toxic loans, the legacy of plunging real-estate prices and the country’s deepest recession. In all, it will buy loans with a book value of 80 billion euros ($107 billion), about half the size of the economy. Lenihan said the information from NAMA on the banks was “truly shocking.” ....

Credit-default swaps insuring Allied Irish Bank’s debt against default fell 6.5 basis points to 195.5, according to CMA DataVision prices at 8:45 a.m. Contracts protecting Bank of Ireland’s debt fell 7 basis points to 191 and swaps linked to Anglo Irish Bank’s bonds were down 3.5 basis points at 347.5.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRbf5whFOhvg

[ozymandius]

7. Ritholtz asks an important question.

Where Are We On Financial Reform?

DC Update:

In the Senate, we have two proposals: The Dodd plan, which is limp ineffective series of toothless proposals that fail to address what the crisis. And there is the Kaufman Reform plan, which is much more aggressive in attacking the root of the problem.

In the House, we have Barney Frank’s plan, which originally looked like it had some teeth. Since it was first floated, however, I’ve heard nothing more on it.

More at link...

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I have been wondering about this issue too but lack the time to investigate to any meaningful level of understanding.

[ozymandius]

8. Notes for Further Reading

I feel that my attention to Mr. Ritholtz's blog has been light of late. Posts over the past twenty four hours have been of high probative quality. So I commend his work to your attention.

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10 Questions for Finance Reformers

The current series of proposals for reforming Wall Street and bankers are toothless facades of what real regulation should look like.

It seems that each new proposal for reforming Banking and Wall Street is more banker friendly – and ineffective – than the previous one. They are milquetoast, meaningless, appeasing nonsense. The reformers are in a race to see who can offer up legislation that is least offensive to bankers.

In order to legislate reform that will prevent the next meltdown from occurring, I suggest that anyone who introduces new reform legislation must answer the following questions about their proposals:

1. Ratings Agencies:
What does your proposal do about this business model? Does it maintain this unique privileged status? Does it introduce any competition to the ratings business?

2. Derivatives:
What does your proposal do to fix this?

More at link...

[ozymandius]

9. Bill Black: Not Dead Yet

From New Deal 2.0

New Deal 2.0 readers know that Roosevelt Institute Braintruster Bill Black isn’t afraid to tell it like it is, and in recent weeks he’s been turning up the heat on the banksters who defrauded the American public and brought the country to the brink of economic collapse. Now a revealing interview with the Real News Network, entitled “To rob a country, own a bank,” has one blogger asking, “Why hasn’t Bill Black been killed?”

While we don’t believe Bill is in any real danger, his brutal honesty does pose a serious threat to the financial sector’s status quo. You can watch the entire interview below and see why Bill is enemy number one among the opponents of financial reform.

The following is a series of YouTube videos. You may want to bookmark this for future reading.

New Deal link

[ozymandius]

10. Alford: Time to Stop Giving the Fed a Free Pass

From Naked Capitalism:

By Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed. Since then, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side.

Wide swaths of families, businesses, investors, taxpayers, and others have had not just their net worth but their lives damaged by the recent financial crisis and its aftermath. Many are looking for an explanation. Many are content to attribute blame and much anger has been directed at Wall Street firms, the credit rating agencies and increasingly the Fed. However, I find ironic that the Fed is escaping criticism for egregious policy errors, while being blamed for decisions and actions that were precipitated by the failure of other agencies to shoulder their responsibilities.

Errors for which the Fed should be held accountable, but for which it has largely escaped criticism, include the following:

• The Fed managed to completely miss the housing bubble. It continues to argue that it should not be held accountable for missing the housing bubble because no one saw the housing bubble, when in fact many knowledgeable and well-respected analysts and policy makers, inside as well as outside the Fed, called attention to the bubble.

• The Fed adopted a macro-economic framework for policy analysis that systematically underestimated (i.e., ignored) the importance of financial markets and institutions to policy and economic performance. Not surprisingly, it ignored its supervisory regulatory responsibilities.

• The Fed allowed increased concentration in the financial services sector, which implied the growth of TBTF institutions, concentrations of market power, and informational asymmetries that are inconsistent with fair and well-functioning markets.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/03/alford-time-to-stop-giving-the-fed-a-free-pass.html

[tclambert]

12. But "No one could have predicted . . ."

"At least no one we ever listen to, with our hands over our ears, singing 'LA-LA-LA-LA' as loud as we can."

[DemReadingDU]

13. I can hear them when the market declines again...

No one could have predicted that the stock market would decline. How could the market decline when the GOV is furiously getting out the propaganda that the economy is recovering, more jobs are being created, 'health care' passed, banking reform is next, going to drill offshore. It's all good, so how could the markets decline?

edit to add
:sarcasm:

[Demeter]

11. Dilbert Strikes Again!

http://dilbert.com/dyn_file/str_strip/86283/gif/strip.print/

[Demeter]

17. U.S. Government To Save Billions By Cutting Wasteful Senator Program

http://www.theonion.com/articles/us-government-to-save-billions-by-cutting-wasteful,17171/

Today the Onion, tomorrow...?

In an effort to reduce wasteful spending and eliminate non-vital federal services, the U.S. government announced plans this week to cut its long-standing senator program, a move it says will help save more than $300 billion each year.

According to officials, the decision to cut the national legislative body was reached during a budget review meeting on Tuesday. After hours of deliberation, it was agreed that the cost of financing U.S. senators far outweighed the benefits they provided.

"Now more than ever, we must eliminate needless spending wherever possible," President Obama said at a press conference Wednesday. "When we sat down to go over our annual budget, we asked ourselves, where can we safely trim back? What programs can we do away with without negatively impacting the American people? Which bloated and ineffective institutions can we no longer justify having around?"

"The answer was obvious," Obama added. "The U.S. Senate just needed to go."

Established in 1789 as a means of overseeing the passage of bills into law, the once-promising senator program has reportedly failed to contribute to the governing of the nation in any significant way since 1964. Last year alone, approximately $450 billion was funneled into the legislative chamber, an amount deemed fiscally unsound considering how few citizens actually benefit in any way from its existence.

In fact, the program has gone unchecked for so long that many in Washington are now unable to recall what purpose U.S. senators were originally meant to serve.

"I'm sure when it was first introduced the U.S. Senate seemed like a worthwhile public service that would aid vast segments of the population and play an important role in the years to come," said Sheila McKenzie, president of the watchdog group the American Center for Responsible Government. "But in reality, this program has been a complete and utter failure.

"It simply doesn't work," she added. "We've been pouring taxpayer dollars into this outdated relic for far too long."

An analysis conducted last week revealed a number of troubling flaws within the long-running, heavily subsidized program, including a lack of consistent oversight, no clear objectives or goals, the persistent hiring of unqualified and selfishly motivated individuals, and a 100 percent redundancy rate among its employees.

Moreover, the study found that the U.S. government already funds a fully operational legislative body that appears to do the exact same job as the Senate, but which also provides a fair and proportional representation of the nation's citizens and has rules in place to prevent one individual from holding the operations of the entire chamber hostage until he is guaranteed massive federal spending projects for his home state of Alabama.

Not only have U.S. Senators cost the country billions of dollars in misspent funds over the years, but Washington insiders claim they have also derailed a wide range of other government programs, from social welfare to job creation to environmental protection.

"Even just the space the Senate currently occupies could be put to better use," consumer advocate Michael Dodgerson said. "Were the government to open a day-care center, a homeless shelter, or even an affordable restaurant in that building, it would make more of a difference in the lives of everyday Americans than what's there now."

So far, reaction to the cutback has been overwhelming positive, with many across the country calling it a long-awaited step toward progress.

Still, a small pocket of the nation's populace vehemently disagreed with Tuesday's decision.

"This is outrageous," said Joe Lieberman, a Connecticut-area resident and concerned citizen who makes more than $150,000 a year, enjoys full health care benefits, and lives comfortably in a large, non-foreclosed home. "The U.S. Senate has always looked out for my best interests. It's always done right by me."

Added Lieberman, "Without it, I'll have no choice but to exploit my extensive connections in the real estate, legal, insurance, and pharmaceutical industries to obtain strictly honorary positions at large companies that, in exchange for my subservience over the years and the prestige of my name, will compensate me generously and allow me to continue living a privileged life without contributing even a moment of my time to the society that has made it all possible."

[Festivito]

20. Debt: 03/29/2010 12,686,249,797,715.01 (UP 356,073,909.31) (Mon)

(Down little. Good day all.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,199,927,347,284.93 + 4,486,322,450,430.08
DOWN 32,502,739.57 + UP 388,576,648.88

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,109,278 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,041.31.
A family of three owes $123,123.93. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 8,510,158,802.57.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,957,111,161.80.
The average for the last 28 days would be 6,382,619,101.93.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 122 reports in 180 days of FY2010 averaging 6.36B$ per report, 4.31B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,028 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.1 and 19.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/29/2010 12,686,249,797,715.01 BHO (UP 2,059,372,748,801.93 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,776,420,794,203.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,574,408,832,690.03 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/09/2010 +000,542,827,835.74 ------------********
03/10/2010 +000,295,703,179.30 ------------********
03/11/2010 +029,692,666,288.30 ------------**********
03/12/2010 +000,363,901,611.09 ------------********
03/15/2010 +060,487,338,970.60 ------------********** Mon
03/16/2010 +000,241,513,784.66 ------------********
03/17/2010 +000,318,864,879.69 ------------********
03/18/2010 +020,986,560,998.86 ------------**********
03/19/2010 +000,244,805,712.35 ------------********
03/22/2010 +000,662,784,714.13 ------------******** Mon
03/23/2010 +000,796,033,080.11 ------------********
03/24/2010 +000,495,755,553.04 ------------********
03/25/2010 +024,094,622,106.32 ------------**********
03/26/2010 -000,521,947,711.23 ---
03/29/2010 -000,032,502,739.57 ---- Mon

138,668,928,263.39 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4325496&mesg_id=4326954

[Festivito]

21. Debt: 03/30/2010 12,684,570,896,780.80 (DOWN 1,678,900,934.21) (Tue)

(Up a little. Good day all.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,200,073,493,391.96 + 4,484,497,403,388.84
UP 146,146,107.03 + DOWN 1,825,047,041.24

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,117,918 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,034.73.
A family of three owes $123,104.2. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 7,864,151,014.07.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,504,905,709.85.
The average for the last 28 days would be 5,898,113,260.55.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 123 reports in 181 days of FY2010 averaging 6.30B$ per report, 4.28B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,027 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.1 and 18.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/30/2010 12,684,570,896,780.80 BHO (UP 2,057,693,847,867.72 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,774,741,893,269.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,562,324,812,393.49 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/10/2010 +000,295,703,179.30 ------------********
03/11/2010 +029,692,666,288.30 ------------**********
03/12/2010 +000,363,901,611.09 ------------********
03/15/2010 +060,487,338,970.60 ------------********** Mon
03/16/2010 +000,241,513,784.66 ------------********
03/17/2010 +000,318,864,879.69 ------------********
03/18/2010 +020,986,560,998.86 ------------**********
03/19/2010 +000,244,805,712.35 ------------********
03/22/2010 +000,662,784,714.13 ------------******** Mon
03/23/2010 +000,796,033,080.11 ------------********
03/24/2010 +000,495,755,553.04 ------------********
03/25/2010 +024,094,622,106.32 ------------**********
03/26/2010 -000,521,947,711.23 ---
03/29/2010 -000,032,502,739.57 ---- Mon
03/30/2010 +000,146,146,107.03 ------------********

138,272,246,534.68 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4327025&mesg_id=4328385