STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday February 18

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday February 18, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Name(s): David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 17, 2010

Dow... 10,309.24 +40.43 (+0.39%)
Nasdaq... 2,226.29 +12.10 (+0.55%)
S&P 500... 1,099.51 +4.64 (+0.42%)
Gold future... 1,120 +0.20 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.73 +0.07 (+1.86%)
30-Year Bond 4.69 +0.06 (+1.38%)

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

---

Handy Links - Market Data and News:
Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance
    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 02/13
Briefing.com 400K
Consensus 430K
Prior 440K

08:30 Continuing Claims 02/6
Briefing.com 4540K
Consensus 4500K
Prior 4538K

08:30 PPI Jan
Briefing.com 0.9%
Consensus 0.8%
Prior 0.4%

08:30 Core PPI Jan
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior 0.0%

10:00 Leading Indicators Jan
Briefing.com 0.6%
Consensus 0.5%
Prior 1.1%

10:00 Philadelphia Fed Feb
Briefing.com 16.2
Consensus 17.0
Prior 15.2

11:00 Crude Inventories 2/12
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 2.42M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[rfranklin]

30. U.S. stock futures decline after economic data

U.S. stock futures decline after economic data
By Kate Gibson NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures fell Thursday after data had weekly jobless claims rising along with inflation. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 31 points to 10,265. Those for the S&P 500 were down 4.3 points to 1,095.3, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 2.75 points to 1,809.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-decline-after-economic-data-2010-02-18

[ozymandius]

40. updating

08:30 Initial Claims 02/13
Actual 473K
Briefing.com 400K
Consensus 430K
Prior 440K revised from 442k

08:30 Continuing Claims 02/6
Actual 4563K
Briefing.com 4540K
Consensus 4500K
Prior 4538K revised from 4538K

08:30 PPI Jan
Actual 1.4%
Briefing.com 0.9%
Consensus 0.8%
Prior 0.4%

08:30 Core PPI Jan
Actual 0.3%
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior 0.0%

BTW - the unemployment numbers are still considered by sane people to be "catastrophic".

[tclambert]

41. Iniital claims 473K

Continuing claims 4563K. Both numbers higher than estimated. Briefing.com says the weather may have prevented some people from filing claims. The "true" number of initial claims may exceed 500K.

Everything about this report is bad news. I tried, but I can't find a silver lining in this one.

[ozymandius]

2. Oil falls below $77 as US distillate supplies rise

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $77 a barrel Thursday in Asia on signs gasoline and distillate demand in the U.S. remain sluggish. ...

Inventories of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, rose 1.3 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said late Wednesday. Analysts, eyeing a cold weather spell in much of the U.S. this month, had expected a drop of 1.6 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

Gasoline inventories also grew while crude supplies fell slightly, the API said. ...

In other Nymex trading in March contracts, heating oil fell 1.82 cents to $1.9885 a gallon, and gasoline dropped 1.19 cent to $1.9952 a gallon. Natural gas fell 0.6 cent to $5.38 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Festivito]

3. Debt: 02/16/2010 12,384,358,013,736.32 (UP 32,733,821,835.26) (Tue)

(Up. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good morning to all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,878,008,174,978.63 + 4,506,349,838,757.69
UP 30,097,605,306.92 + UP 2,636,216,528.34

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.72, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,755,038 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,110.63.
A family of three owes $120,331.88. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 3,096,740,191.04.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,167,718,133.73.
The average for the last 32 days would be 2,032,235,750.37.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 93 reports in 139 days of FY2010 averaging 5.10B$ per report, 3.41B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,069 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.9 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/16/2010 12,384,358,013,736.32 BHO (UP 1,757,480,964,823.24 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,474,529,010,224.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,246,065,386,561.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/26/2010 +000,973,181,275.87 ------------********
01/27/2010 +000,063,416,019.94 ------------*******
01/28/2010 -024,245,578,618.07 -
01/29/2010 -000,416,981,206.21 ---
02/01/2010 +090,319,223,365.33 ------------********** Mon
02/02/2010 -000,066,012,400.47 ----
02/03/2010 +000,334,538,130.44 ------------********
02/04/2010 -009,677,289,403.68 --
02/05/2010 -000,081,816,346.60 ----
02/08/2010 +000,119,837,978.11 ------------******** Mon
02/09/2010 +000,368,016,270.35 ------------********
02/10/2010 -000,056,577,287.25 ----
02/11/2010 +007,265,093,186.33 ------------*********
02/12/2010 -000,104,736,856.82 ---
02/16/2010 +030,097,605,306.92 ------------********** Tue

94,891,919,414.19 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4272353&mesg_id=4272382

[Festivito]

57. Debt: 02/17/2010 12,386,495,535,882.23 (UP 2,137,522,145.91) (Wed)

(Up a bit. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,878,416,869,865.30 + 4,508,078,666,016.93
UP 408,694,886.67 + UP 1,728,827,259.24

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.72, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,763,678 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,116.43.
A family of three owes $120,349.28. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 3,053,139,370.81.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,238,968,871.93.
The average for the last 33 days would be 2,035,426,247.21.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 94 reports in 140 days of FY2010 averaging 5.07B$ per report, 3.40B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,068 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.9 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/17/2010 12,386,495,535,882.23 BHO (UP 1,759,618,486,969.15 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,476,666,532,370.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,242,737,745,108.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/27/2010 +000,063,416,019.94 ------------*******
01/28/2010 -024,245,578,618.07 -
01/29/2010 -000,416,981,206.21 ---
02/01/2010 +090,319,223,365.33 ------------********** Mon
02/02/2010 -000,066,012,400.47 ----
02/03/2010 +000,334,538,130.44 ------------********
02/04/2010 -009,677,289,403.68 --
02/05/2010 -000,081,816,346.60 ----
02/08/2010 +000,119,837,978.11 ------------******** Mon
02/09/2010 +000,368,016,270.35 ------------********
02/10/2010 -000,056,577,287.25 ----
02/11/2010 +007,265,093,186.33 ------------*********
02/12/2010 -000,104,736,856.82 ---
02/16/2010 +030,097,605,306.92 ------------********** Tue
02/17/2010 +000,408,694,886.67 ------------********

94,327,433,024.99 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4273654&mesg_id=4273661

[ozymandius]

4. World markets slightly lower after big rally

...
Earnings reports that beat expectations from Deere & Co., Whole Foods Market Inc., Kraft Foods Inc. and Abercrombie & Fitch over the last two days suggest U.S. consumer spending may be rebounding, an encouraging sign for Asian companies that sell goods to the world's biggest economy.

Traders are also watching for more possible moves by the Chinese government to slow economic growth and avoid asset bubbles. China raised its bank reserves requirement last week in a bid to cool lending, but so far investors brushed off concerns this could dampen regional growth. ...

As trading got underway in Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 was off 0.2 percent, France's CAC-40 declined 0.4 percent and Germany's DAX lost 0.3 percent. Futures pointed to modest losses Thursday on Wall Street with S&P futures down 4.7 points, or 0.4 percent, at 1,094.80.

Earlier in Asia, South Korea's Kospi stock index dropped 6.24 points, or 0.4 percent, to 1,621.19 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 111.86, or 0.5 percent, to 20,422.15.

Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average closed up 28.86 points, or 0.3 percent, at 10,335.69 while Malaysia's stock benchmark added 0.1 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100218/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[fasttense]

13. Is it rebound heading toward a recovery or is it pent up demand?n/t

[Demeter]

15. Essentials Only, I Expect

[ozymandius]

5. States Sink in Benefits Hole

State governments face a trillion-dollar gap between the pension, health-care and other retirement benefits promised to public employees and the money set aside to pay for them, according to a new report from the Pew Center on the States.

States promised current and retired workers a total of $3.35 trillion in benefits through June 30, 2008, said the report from the nonprofit research group, a division of Pew Charitable Trusts. But state governments had contributed only $2.35 trillion to their benefit plans to pay current and future bills, the report said.

The Pew report said its estimate of the funding gap would likely prove conservative, because it didn't account for the massive investment losses pension funds suffered during the second half of 2008. Although there was a slight rebound last year, it wasn't nearly enough to cover the previous losses, Pew said. ...

As a result, annual pension costs for states and participating local governments more than doubled, to more than $64 billion, from fiscal 2000 to fiscal 2008, said Susan Urahn, the research group's managing director. ...

In addition, states generally have little set aside to cover retiree health-care and other nonpension benefits. The Pew report found states, on average, have funded only 7.1% of these expected costs, and 20 states have no money in reserve for the bills.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748704398804575071873547372514.html

---

Reforming healthcare to the Medicare-for-All system will significantly shrink these gaps and lighten pension liabilities across category.

[ozymandius]

6. Daimler scraps dividend after 2009 loss

STUTTGART, Germany (Reuters) - German carmaker Daimler will scrap its 2009 dividend, for the first time in 14 years, after it swung to a worse-than-expected net loss, sending its shares into a tailspin.

It promised to post a 2010 operating profit of more than 2.3 billion euros ($3.12 billion) after charges helped push its 2009 loss to 1.51 billion euros.

Daimler expects to boost group vehicle sales this year amid a 3-4 percent overall gain in global car demand and moderate growth in truck markets.

....
Daimler shares sank more than 8 percent to their lowest point since September 2009 before paring losses slightly, not helped by the

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61H1VJ20100218

[tclambert]

18. A car company that used to pay dividends? What a concept!

I think I remember a time when GM used to do that. Now they don't even sell stock.

[ozymandius]

7. Societe Generale Falls After Asset Writedowns, Dividend Cut

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Societe Generale SA, France’s second-largest bank by market value, fell as much as 5.1 percent in Paris trading after writedowns tied to risky assets weighed on fourth-quarter profit and the company cut its dividend.

Societe Generale fell 1.92 euros, or 4.6 percent, to 40.08 euros by 9:55 a.m., bringing the decline this year to 18 percent. The Paris-based bank cut its dividend to 25 cents a share for 2009 from 1.2 euros a year earlier, it said an e- mailed statement today. ...

Net income amounted to 221 million euros in the quarter, up from 87 million euros a year earlier, on a gain from merging its asset-management unit with a rival. Earnings at Societe Generale, which announced a record trading loss two years ago, have lagged behind larger rival BNP Paribas SA throughout the financial crisis. ...

The bank, which had about 10 billion euros in markdowns and provisions stemming from the financial crisis through September, said last month it plans to isolate risky assets in a separate unit. The company had about 35.5 billion euros of risky assets at the end of 2009 from holdings including asset-backed securities and debt backed by U.S. bond insurers, according to a presentation on the company’s Web site.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aR2YJcCD9PiI&pos=5

[ozymandius]

8. SEC Said to Use BofA Enforcement Talks to Press Proxy Rule

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission pressed Bank of America Corp. during enforcement talks to give shareholders more power to oust directors, after years of struggling to pass similar rules covering all U.S. companies, people with direct knowledge of the effort said. ...

SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro has said she will push a new rule this year to make it easier for shareholders to nominate directors at publicly traded U.S. companies. Using an enforcement case to set a precedent at Bank of America, the nation’s biggest lender, would have mandated a policy the agency has struggled since 2003 to enact in the face of opposition from business groups. ...

Schapiro’s office supported the proxy access clause; Bank of America opposed it and made counter-proposals, people with knowledge of the talks said. Robert Stickler, a spokesman for the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank, said it doesn’t comment on settlement talks. SEC spokesman John Nester declined to comment. ...

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which represents more than 3 million companies, has said “activist shareholders” would use proxy access to hijack elections to pursue “political or social issues.” Firms including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. have also voiced opposition to a blanket rule, arguing that companies should be allowed to develop their own systems for giving shareholders influence in management picks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aX5QUgmY5dAY

---

If the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is against this plan then it's a safe bet that populist ideals are being addressed in this proposal.

[ozymandius]

9. AIG to keep $500B in controversial derivatives

The troubled insurer changed its plans to unwind its entire derivatives portfolio, and instead it will maintain up to 25% or $500 billion worth of the assets, The Financial Times reported. The controversial derivatives tumbled in value when the bottom of the housing market fell out, bringing the company to its knees. Taxpayers stepped in with a $181 billion bailout to rescue the company. ...

AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) had previously planned to sell off 100% of its $1.9 trillion portfolio and close down the Financial Products unit that bought and sold them. The company wound down 28% of its derivatives portfolio in the first nine months of 2009. As of September, AIG had $1.1 trillion in the controversial assets. ...

AIG also believes it has been able to eliminate risk from the assets it will continue to hold, and it received the blessing of its government overseers, the Treasury Department and the New York Federal Reserve.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/18/news/companies/aig_derivative_portfolio/index.htm

---

This is the stuff of fiction: derivatives being risk-free. Nothing is risk-free when dealing with derivatives contracts. The complexity of these "instruments" implies risk of the such complexity that has eluded the dizzying intellect of those who have been considered the "brightest and the best." Exhibit A: Long Term Capital Management; Exhibit B: Bear Stearns; Exhibit C: Lehman Bros.; Exhibit D: AIG. All of these companies have been broken with derivatives trading.

The confidence and bluster seen here from AIG really demands greater scrutiny. I would start with the question: Who is on the other side of these trades?

[Zenlitened]

32. "Who is on the other side of these trades?"

Yep. Excellent starting point for the investigation. :thumbsup:

[Tansy_Gold]

10. G'Morning, Ozy, fellow SMWers, lurkers, and all

Much to my displeasure, I'm going to have to slink off into (mostly) lurk mode for a while, maybe several weeks. This is not, I assure you, by choice.

The nightmare software conversion that affected my (mostly) freelance job a few weeks ago has had some further negative effects, the most prominent being an enormous and steadily growing backlog of work. Rather than attempt to figure out WHY all of us "independent contractors" are suddenly unable to keep up with the steady inflow of work, management :rofl: have simply announced increased workloads until the backlog is cleared up. Of course anyone with half a brain would know that if the crew can't finish the assigned work on schedule, adding more work will not make them more able to. . . .well, you get the picture.

Are they stupid? Probably. But they are, in their own little universe, the gods, and yours truly is at their mercy.

Like the problems with the US and the world economies, much of this little outfit's problems could have been avoided very easily. But those at the top are convinced of their absolute rightness and will not listen to alternative ideas. Rather than listen to suggestions that might solve the problems, they are simply going to not only do the same thing with expectations of different results but do MORE of the same thing.

The new software was supposed to have made our jobs easier, so we could produce more work in less time. It has done the opposite, and there has been no discussion of when, if ever, the situation will be reversed.

It is discouraging, and I'm not sure how long I will be able to endure it. But I have no choice other than to try.


Yours always,


Tansy Gold

[ozymandius]

12. Peter Principled Masters of the Universe

Did they mention the word "floggings", Tansy? I would be surprised if they did not.

Jeebus! Your bosses take the gold medal in arrogance and stupidity. Please drop by when you can (and I mean this in a very positive way) as the arrogance and stupidity that gets collected and commented-on here at the SMW might be a much needed mental health breather.

[AnneD]

25. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. Tansy, we will have to come up with a better story to explain your absence than that. You can't say that you have had too much work that you've fallen behind. We need to have you involved in a tryst in a foreign country or something. Can you ever appear on Jeopardy again-we can say you have taken a few months off to prepare.

Ozy, talking about Peter Principle-seems the new Superintendent is getting rid of our regional superintendent and area principals. Now our immediate bosses are feeling the heat. I hoped they saved those bonuses they stole from us. They might be among the new jobless in Houston. By the way, the jobless rate in Houston is 8.3%. I think folks though it was better, but as a School Nurse-I was not surprised-many parents confide with me so I know things are worse than it seems.

In addition to all this nonsense, I will be having MY BOSSES coming out to inspect my clinic today. The question is....will the microscope fit up my ass or not. I have really lost a lot of joy in doing this job. At this point that if they want to fire my sagging white ass-I'll let them fire me so I can collect unemployment. They are so short of Nurses at this point, they would be foolish to let go of someone with years of experience in the field. But then again Tansy-you know as well as I how important experience and competence means these days.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[ozymandius]

43. As always - my feelings about this are most personal and highly sympathetic

to your situation. This always has an effect on the quality of the learning environment. It sounds like an administrative coup.

Good luck with your inspection.

[AnneD]

62. I am picking glass...

out of my hemorrhoids. It took 3 hours and they want to come back. I think I will call my union rep and have her sit in on the next follow up. Either that or have them close down the clinic. I can't be answering their questions and running the clinic too.

Three hours and they didn't find a darn thing! They are just worried about their jobs. The new administration doesn't value education and I am certain they don't value health care for children.

God I hate suffering fools.

[Dr.Phool]

45. I see a good aquaintance of mine may be finally getting his job.

It seems Chuckie Cheese Grassley has been holding up his appointment to a Cabinet Undersecretary job, over some bullshit, and it might finally go through.

I'd think about hitting him up for a job, but I pissed him off pretty good the last time I saw him.

[tclambert]

19. Very sorry to hear about that. Love your posts.

The pointy-haired bosses strike again. The Dogbert software company promised the new conversion would make the contractors do more work. That's sort of right. The thing is if you want more PRODUCTIVITY, it needs to make LESS work.

So far, I've been enjoying the TV show "Undercover Boss." The bosses try doing line jobs and it always amazes them how hard they are. Really, every boss ought to go through this exercise on a periodic basis to keep them in touch with reality. Picture your boss trying to do what you do. I'm sure that image will give you hours of amusement.

[AnneD]

63. I love it too.

I get a laugh. I can't believe the boss of Waste Management got fired from one of the jobs because he couldn't cut it.

[Dr.Phool]

27. The beatings will continue until morale improves.

Sorry to hear it Tansy. Your observations and sharp wit are something we look forward to. Just pop in once in a while and say :hi: .

Good luck.

[Tansy_Gold]

58. How NOT to improve (Tansy's) morale. . . . ..

I will try to keep this succinct as my time is limited but this was almost stupid enough to lift my spirits. It will, I hope, give you some idea just how moronic are the people for whom I "freelance."

When the Great Software Conversion was implemented three weeks ago, the "Operating Manual" consisted of a very few PDF pages, heavily illustrated. Lots of pictures, few words. And they can't figure out why people were having difficulty.

Because we are freelancers rather than employees (there are about 200 of us around the western U.S.), we have to submit our own invoices. "They," however, want to keep things somewhat standardized, so they provide the form that we fill out to bill them for the work we've done. With approximately 20,000 individual jobs being billed each month, it's understandable that they'd want to keep it simple.

Up until about six months ago, we filled out the invoice template, printed it, and mailed it to the home office. Three to four weeks later we get our checks. No problem. Then to simplify matters, "they" decided we could submit our invoices as email attachments. Same template, same info. No sweat.

One of the instructions for completing the invoice template was to make sure we deleted all extra blank lines on the form after we had filled it out. The template had about 500 lines, and a few contractors actually used that much, but not many. So most of us deleted 80% of the blank lines, turned in a three- to four-page invoice and all was well.

The new software system, however, required some minor modifications to the invoice form due to the way jobs were coded and assigned. So about the end of January, right when the new system was about to launch, we were emailed a new invoice template. It came with detailed instructions that were TWICE AS LONG as the instructions for the system. Supposedly the new invoice template has to be completed in a certain way so it can automatically be verified against the actual work recorded by the system. Okay, fine.

Except it looks EXACTLY like the old one. EXACTLY. We'll call it Revised Invoice Form #1.

A few days later, in the middle of the chaos of The Launch, we are emailed a new and revised invoice template. Again, it comes with detailed instructions, which are identical to the first set. There is no visible difference in the Revised Invoice Form #2 from #1.

About a week later, which was I think last week Tuesday, we got another revision, complete with "new" instructions. #3 has no visible differences from #2 or #1 -- or even from the original. Since we bill twice a month, I took RIF #3 and began to fill it out. By last night, when I had finished my 1st/15th tallies, got back all the revisions from the system, made my adjustments, etc., I completed my invoice on RIF#3 template. Everything balanced and looked good, so I prepared to remove all the hundreds of extra lines. Except it wouldn't let me. It said the document was locked for editing and I needed a password to unlock it! Of course, it wasn't locked when I posted all the jobs I'd completed and how much I was owed for them. The only thing I couldn't do was take out the extra lines. Okay, fine, since it's not a paper copy, I just attached it with its 500 blank extra lines to an email and sent it off to the A/P department. They would have had it waiting for them when they came in at 8:00 local time.

About 9:15 local time, we got another email with another RIF attached, #4, with instructions to use this form beginning immediately. As with all the others, there is no visible difference. None. What IS different is that the lock has been removed from the ability to delete the extra blank lines.

THIS got top priority this morning. THIS is what they stopped everything for and got a revision made and sent it out to everyone.

I am exhausted. I have to be back at the rockpile in less than two hours, so I'm going to grab a quickie snooze.

They're nutz. They're all fucking nutz.

[AnneD]

64. Our campaign slogan......

"We won't suffer fools". How bout that Tansy?

Tansy Gold-AnneD Because we can run the government better and cheaper.

[Demeter]

66. You May Be Setting the Bar Too High There, AnneD

I'd settle for "We won't suffer". It's a LOT better than "Change You Can Believe In".

"Or a nation of just and fair laws, rigorously enforced." That would be a novelty, and make a good platform that only the bent could dispute.

[Tansy_Gold]

67. "We won't suffer, and neither will you. .. .

Unless you're a greedy repuke bankster pig."


Tansy Gold, who is not PC, who is overwhelmed once again,

[Demeter]

69. I'm Sending You Virtual Girl Scout Cookies--Thin Mints

If I called them GS cookies, would they be made of Blankfein, a substitute for the communion wafers?

I am so pissed at my non-virtual support group: family and friends. I have so much good news for them, for the first time in decades, not to exaggerate in the slightest, and they don't return calls, or email, or anything.

Santa didn't bring me what I need this year. Hence, the GS cookies....

[DemReadingDU]

29. Hope things work out

You're trying as best as you can. And if that's not good enough for them, then it's not worth your further time. Life is too short to be so stressed.

[kickysnana]

55. Screw it up from the top down. The new American model.

My 84 year old Dad, aka the Energizer Bunny, collapsed last Friday and like a lot of folks who have done that when they asked what was wrong he said he was drooling too much so the paramedics left him. My 19 year old nephew who lives with him hadn't been told specifically to call someone if something happened to Grandpa so he didn't.

Dad slept and got up and went to the State Bowling tournament and competed in singles and doubles. Six games and was in second place in his age category, first place in the doubles. However when he got home, sat down and tried to get up his legs had gone rubbery so he managed to get to the phone and call for an ambulance again. He was out of it when I got to the ER and unable to sort out what had happened in the last two days but after they stopped fussing with him he dozed for about 15 minutes woke up sat up and was OK. They started him on fluids, and antibiotics for pneumonia. After a few hours on the antibiotics he suddenly thought he was being held as a prisoner of war and was seeing "dead people" walking around. My sister and brother rushed down and he calmed down some but even when Dad is altered he is still smart. They were going to try to give him a sedative in some ice cream, even giving another dish to my brother but he was having none of it. He finally fell asleep and my sister stayed with him overnight. In the morning they gave him the sedative with his morning pills and that was OK. One of us stayed with him for the next 48 hours and then we had a family conference after a lot of brain studies and evaluation while still sedated and while the old antibiotics had not totally left his system.

My brother was the one who saw how the antibiotics was causing the problem so they switched that and he was OK but they were testing him while he was on the sedative and on quadruple dose of another medicine he had made him incredibility sleepy. We got them to eliminate one and cut back on the other starting late yesterday morning but they are acting like he is an Alzheimer's patient rather than someone who had a medication reaction and we are having quite a time countering because the OT, PT, nurses and doctors keep changing and they only know what they read in the chart.

Hopefully today he will be back to himself and can speak for himself. He has severe tinnitus that limits his hearing and he has an Asperger's like syndrome where his brain works literally especially when he is stressed. If you ask him if he knows where he is he will say yes and wait for another question. It wasn't until one of my nephews came along with the same thing that we learned that he wasn't being difficult, he literally could not answer questions that were ambiguous. ie Are you feeling better yet or still. He would need to know since when to answer that question. He holds patents and learned computers inside and out but despite three years at the U of M as an adult trying to learn how to spell, he never mastered it. Thank goodness for secretaries and assistants. You can read what he is writing because it is phonetic but it to everyone else it is just wrong.

They of course wanted to send him to a transitional facility and the stress of that would probably kill him so one of us will take responsibility for him in our home or his to see that he continues to be the Energizer Bunny for as long as he can. He bowls on three leagues, plays table tennis, is in Lions, VFW, works at the food shelf and takes care of his large yard and home. He had to give up working on cars this year as the cars are more difficult to work on now than they used to be and he had someone do the roofing, reluctantly.

Thank goodness there are 5 of us because he would wear one of two of us out just tagging along with him.

[AnneD]

65. That is most interesting....

I hope they take your Dad seriously. I have seen Seniors get dehydrate and go off their nut. Because of that-I always pushed fluids. Lack of B vitamins do that too.

[wordpix]

72. hey Tansy, I had a boss like that

Not at liberty to say exactly what happened except "we came to an agreement." And now I'm running my own business. It's small but at least I'm free of The Idiot and the biz is growing.

[ozymandius]

11. Coming Soon: Chapter 9 Municipal Bankruptcies

From Ritholtz:

The WSJ notes:

“The seldom-used part of U.S. bankruptcy law gives municipalities protection from creditors while developing a plan to pay off debts. Created in the wake of the Great Depression, Chapter 9 is widely considered a last resort and filings under it are more taboo than other parts of bankruptcy code because of the resulting uncertainty for everyone from municipal employees to bondholders.

The economic slump, however, is forcing debt-laden cities, towns and smaller taxing districts throughout the U.S. to consider using Chapter 9. As their revenue declines faster than expenses, some public entities are scrambling to keep making payments on municipal bonds. And that is causing experts to worry about the safety of securities traditionally considered low risk.”

There have been but 600 cases since this chapter of the bankruptcy code became law in 1934. The largest Chapter 9 filing was back in 1994, when Merrill Lynch bankrupted Orange County, California via a form of unsuitable investments that lost a billion plus dollars on a form of Interest Rate Swaps.

Bloody derivatives trading to strike again! And still - they are not regulated!

[Zenlitened]

33. And yet, for the past year, I've been hearing "experts" encouraging us...

... to invest in municipal bonds or bond funds. :eyes:

[ozymandius]

38. Expect to hear advice like this.

Even if you have a dollar bill taped to the wall - many "experts" will want to come between you and that bill.

[Dr.Phool]

39. I'm waiting for that bomb to explode in Florida.

For the past several years, under Jebonomics, the state has been transferring funding for a lot of different programs down to the county and municipal level. This allowed Jeb to eliminate taxes on securities over $500k held by rich people, and cut corporate taxes. And he also cleaned out the state treasury by funding major corporate welfare.

Now, the counties had to make up for the unfunded mandates by increasing sales and property taxes. And they also took the heat from citizens for raising taxes. And nobody wanted to explain what was happening. Now, with sales taxes declining, and property values plummeting (thus real estate taxes), counties are laying off employees, and cutting services. Pinellas County even stopped supplying doggy doo-doo bags to the dog parks. They cost about a buck for a thousand bags. I had a couple of boxes of those T-shirt plastic bags left from the restaurant, so I started hanging them on the fence.

Florida has a major economic reality check coming soon, and it ain't gonna be pretty.


Whadda you mean, I can't shit here anymore?

[hamerfan]

14. Morning, Ozy, Tansy, and everyone else!

I'm off to work soon. No nasty software for me today, thankfully. Best of luck with that FUBAR situation, Tansy! And thanks Ozy, as always, for your fine effort in bringing all this information together in one spot. It doesn't make my day any brighter, but it is nice to know I'm not the only one wondering when (not if) this boat will sink like a stone.....

[ozymandius]

16. Good morning.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
Thank you for the compliment. Please understand that I do not seek to make your day any more glum with the posts here. Quite simply - I like to demonstrate various examples of how not to extract value from the system. Derivatives trading epitomizes that idea.

That quite a lot of things that need fixing around here - starting with making the business of banking boring again.

Did you read about the socialist bank in North Dakota? That is what banking is supposed to be. Imagine a bank that invigorates job and wealth creation in a community. It sure is a far cry from the Wall Street mega-banks we have come to loathe that extract and concentrate wealth.

Have a nice day. I am leaving for work, too.

:hi:

[Roland99]

23. At least we'll have a house band for this Titanic

Devo returns with corporate satire
http://www.cnn.com/2010/SHOWBIZ/Music/02/17/devo.comeback/

[Demeter]

36. Cue the "Yeoman of the Guard"

WILFRED. I discharged it without winking,
Little time I lost in thinking,
Like a stone I saw him sinking -

POINT. I should say a lump of lead.

ALL. He discharged it without winking,
Little time he lost in thinking.

WILFRED. Like a stone I saw him sinking -

POINT. I should say a lump of lead.

WILFRED. Like a stone, my boy, I said -

POINT. Like a heavy lump of lead.

WILFRED. Anyhow, the man is dead,
Whether stone or lump of lead!

ALL. Anyhow, the man is dead,
Whether stone or lump of lead!
Arquebus from sentry seizing,
With the view his King of pleasing,
Wilfred shot him through the head,
And he's very, very dead!
And it matters very little whether stone or lump of lead,
It is very, very certain that he's very, very dead!

[Demeter]

17. International Monetary Fund to sell another 191 tons of gold

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-to-sell-another-191-tons-of-gold-2010-02-17?siteid=YAHOOB

The International Monetary Fund said Wednesday that it plans to sell 191.3 metric tons of gold on the open market, pushing gold futures and mining shares lower.

The announcement comes after the IMF already sold 212 tons of gold to central banks.

The sales are part of a program to sell a total of 403.3 tons that was approved by the IMF's executive board last September. The total sale will reduce the fund's gold holdings by about one-eighth.
Marc Faber: Commodities and Emerging Markets

Marc Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Ltd and Barron's Roundtable member, anticipates meaningful market correction in 2010. Mining and agriculture will be top performers within commodity sector.

"The top priority in conducting the gold sales is to avoid disruption to the gold market," said IMF Finance Department Director Andrew Tweedie in a statement.

"Prior to any sales on the gold market, sales were first made exclusively to interested central banks, thus shifting gold within the official sector. Now the IMF will begin sales of the remaining gold on the market. This will be done in a phased way," Tweedie said.

The announcement sent gold futures to an intraday low of $1,098.10 an ounce.

Gold for April delivery was last down $14 to $1,106.10 an ounce in electronic trading on Globex.

Asian gold miners traded lower on Thursday, with Newcrest Mining Ltd. /quotes/comstock/22x!e:ncm (AU:NCM 32.91, -0.76, -2.26%) /quotes/comstock/11i!ncmgf (NCMGF 30.00, +1.40, +4.90%) down 2.3% and Lihir Gold Ltd. /quotes/comstock/22x!e:lgl (AU:LGL 2.81, -0.10, -3.44%) /quotes/comstock/11i!lihrf (LIHRF 2.53, +0.10, +4.12%) off 3.5% in Sydney.

In Johannesburg, shares of AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. /quotes/comstock/!ang (ZA:ANG 29,500, -260.00, -0.87%) /quotes/comstock/13*!au/quotes/nls/au (AU 38.36, -0.86, -2.19%) fell 1.4%, while those of Gold Fields /quotes/comstock/!gfi (ZA:GFI 9,385, -75.00, -0.79%) /quotes/comstock/13*!gfi/quotes/nls/gfi (GFI 12.05, -0.24, -1.95%) dropped 1.3%.

Transactions under the previous tranche of the IMF gold-sale program consisted of a 200-ton sale to the Reserve Bank of India in October, followed by November sales of two tons to the Bank of Mauritius and 10 tons to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka.

The proceeds from the sale of the 212 tons amounted to almost $7.2 billion.

THE QUESTION ONE HAS TO ASK: IS THIS PHYSICAL GOLD, OR PAPER GOLD?

[Po_d Mainiac]

21. Had the same question last night

A web search did not provide any answers.

One would think the IMF fact sheets would supply the answer. But.......:popcorn:

[tclambert]

22. Paper gold? What with that Onion article yesterday, I'm still in favor of a zucchini standard.

Vegetables are real wealth. Bricks of shiny metal have no nutritional value.

[Po_d Mainiac]

26. I'm finishing off this spring's first batch of Maple Syrup

It has a similar color as gold and mixes well will with "silver dollar" pancakes...

I opt for the "Maple Standard"....

ps.....I put fruitcake and zucchini in the same category....ain't sure what that category is, but it's not one of the major food groups.

[tclambert]

44. I like fruitcake! (Despite the accusations of cannabalism.)

"One small bite is enough to fill the stomach of a grown man!"

[Dr.Phool]

28. Here's a guy who takes that seriously in SC.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4273426

They should give him his pay in Confederate money.

And I see the mods deleted my response. And it was fairly tame.

[ozymandius]

37. Good one, Dr. Phool.

I think I read your post. Nothing objectionable registered with me. Mods do occasionally make mistakes. Do you care to share your sentiments here?

Perhaps one of Mr. Pitts' constituents should send his equivalent pay in Monopoly money. His teabaggery motion amounts to the same.

Anyway - just checking in here while I have a short break at work.

[Dr.Phool]

42. I think it was my observation, that on my last visit to SC, to see my dad.

That was in September. I concluded that the state was wall-to-wall stoopid. This was back during the uproar of Obama trying to indoctrinate our school kids.

This was after consulting with the local residents of Loris, SC. For further evidence, take note, that Loris is only about 10 miles east of where Ben Bernanke grew up.

[UpInArms]

20. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.526 Change +0.150 (+0.19%)

Dollar Recovers All of Tuesday’s Losses but not Through Risk Trends or a Hawkish FOMC Minutes

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2010-02-18-0142-Dollar_Recovers_All_of_Tuesday_s.html

In a dramatic about-face, the US dollar would completely retrace its significantly losses from Tuesday and put itself back on the cusp of a meaningful bullish breakout. This reversal has notably returned the Dollar Index to an 85-level range high that has stalled this year’s overall bull trend for nearly two weeks now. Amongst the majors, EURUSD is back at its nine-month lows at 1.36; while GBPUSD has notably forestalled a jump back above 1.58 and is once again looking to develop the critical range breakout established at the beginning of the month. Given the proximity of significant technical levels and heightened volatility, it may seem that the Dollar is on pace for a critical breakout. However, without a clear fundamental catalyst, it will be difficult to clear such a prominent hurdle. Looking at today’s drive, there was a clear disconnect between the greenback’s significant price action and the prominent developments for the day. Keeping a constant tab on the risk appetite and the dollar’s role as a safe haven currency; there was little correlation between the greenback’s advance and any other notable speculative asset. Most notably, the Dow Jones Industrial Average carved out a tepid 58-point range. Yet, it is important not to grow complacent on stalled sentiment trends. Greece and the European Union’s plan to rescue the nation should conditions threaten its default are still hanging in the air. All that is needed is a souring of risk appetite; and the spotlight will once again be cast on this gapping financial hole. What’s more, under the right conditions or given the necessary push, China’s efforts to slow its own economy and the global endeavor to withdrawal government stimulus can easily leverage the sense of fear in the market.

Turning from the underlying currents of market sentiment to more tangible fundamentals, it may seem that scheduled event risk could claim responsibility for the dollar’s strength. Topping the docket was the late-session release of the FOMC minutes from the January 26th/27th policy meeting. The report certainly contained more than a few highlights that added a hawkish lean to interest rate forecasts. Among the notable remarks was the admission that the central bank needed to reduced its assets “substantially” and several members suggested starting selling assets in the “near future.” In fact, Fed member Plosser said he was not opposed to begin reducing the balance sheet before the group acted on interest rates. Another standout on policy was Hoenig’s dissent on the language of the statement that followed the actual decision last month. The hawk said keeping the language that conditions would “warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period” limited the Board’s flexibility. This is perhaps a good idea considering the market is now interpreting this phrase to mean there is no possibility of hikes in the immediate future; and when the language changes only slightly, the market reaction could be exaggerated. Furthermore, Hoenig apparently believes a hike in the near term would lower the risk of lasting imbalances and inflation. Altogether, this seems a material shift in hawkish sentiment (though it may not be shared by the entire group). Nonetheless, this was not a catalyst for the dollar today given that the gains would come through the European and early US session hours. Looking ahead to the final 48 hours of the trading week, the market’s taste for risk is once again the primary concern. And, this time, overtaking dollar resistance will likely require a heavy draft and high correlation.

...more...

Dollar Advance Torn Between Stalled Risk Trends, Hawkish Fed

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/what_fed_watches/2010-02-17-2221-Dollar_Advance_Torn_Between_Stalled.html



The Economy and the Credit Market

Risk trends defined the dollar’s rally; and they can likely bring it to a close. Over the past week, the greenback’s status as a primary safe haven and funding currency was still in control; but the underlying currents of sentiment had shifted. Despite a notable lack of progress from the European Union on the matter of a potential Greek default, the effort to unwind risky positions stalled this week and kept the greenback from overtaking a well-tested seven-month high. The market’s attention is highly fluid; and this could very well be a sign that global investors are moved on to different concerns of return or risk. However, considering the trend for the past month has been a steady decline in risk trends and a steady advance for the dollar over the past two months, it is more likely the case that this is merely a pause before additional concerns bubble to the surface. In the meantime, the US currency itself is finding greater and greater appeal on a purely fundamental basis. With the Euro Zone struggling with a potential structural crisis, the viability of diversifying reserve funds away from the US seems less straightforward. Furthermore, with China having to take active steps to cool its booming economy (to avoid a potential asset bubble) and dimming the global outlook along with it, the United State’s steady recovery looks far more stable and attractive. To top it off, interest rate speculation is starting to find a real foothold. According to the recently released FOMC minutes, the argument for beginning asset sales in the “near future” joins Member Hoenig’s vote to drop the language that rates will be held “exceptionally low” for “an extended period.”



...more...

[Po_d Mainiac]

24. Agreement Is Near on New Overseer of Banking Risk

Assigning the Treasury Department the job of spotting incipient trouble and addressing it quickly has support among senators from both parties, though several important provisions, including whether the council would have the ability to bypass existing banking regulators and impose its own rules on huge financial firms, remain to be worked out.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/18/business/18regulate.html?hp=&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1266498295-sASxw2/pV2aMydY+zVVbyw
...........................
IMHO ..Not good

[Zenlitened]

31. Wal-Mart holiday sales fall, forecast light

SAN FRANCISCO, Feb 18 (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N) said sales at its existing U.S. stores fell during the holiday quarter and forecast results for the current quarter that could miss Wall Street estimates.

The results cast new doubt on Wal-Mart's ability to grow in the United States as the worst of the recession passes and consumer spending thaws. The company's shares fell 1.9 percent in early trading.

The world's largest retailer acknowledged that its U.S. operations will still grapple with weak sales, predicting same-store sales, excluding fuel, will be flat, within a range of up 1 percent to down 1 percent in the current first quarter.

"U.S. sales will be more challenging in the first quarter, as Walmart U.S. cycles through strong year-over-year comparisons and deflation," Wal-Mart Chief Executive Mike Duke said. "We remain focused on growing top-line sales and expect improvement in the United States as the year progresses."

Eduardo Castro-Wright, head of the company's U.S. operations, said Walmart customers remained focused on high unemployment levels, a factor that could be weighing on sales.

"Concern about unemployment remains much higher than last year," he said.

But Wal-Mart's rivals, such as department store operator Macy's Inc (M.N), have seen increased sales as consumer confidence picks up slightly. That has kept investors asking whether Wal-Mart would succeed in holding on to new shoppers who looked to it for bargains in the downturn.

Wal-Mart's profit for the fourth quarter that ended Jan. 31 rose to $4.63 billion, or $1.21 per share, from $3.79 billion, or 96 cents per share, a year earlier.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1622049920100218?type=marketsNews

[Dr.Phool]

35. They're blaming it on price DEFLATION.

And sales in US stores dropped 2%, not the 1.6% reported in same store sales.

Forgive me Father for I have sinned....big time. I actually bought something at Walmart :hide: I have refused to darken their door for about 2 decades, but, I guess we all really do have our price. Mine was a $320 Toshiba 17" laptop. I should be flogged.

[TalkingDog]

48. Worry not. For I too have been tempted.

We are remodeling (out of pocket and DIY) and I've been pricing out dressers and nightstands for the bedroom. I found a deal at Goodwill on a chest of drawers from Target (still in the box, missing some easily replaceable cam bolts) but can't lay my hands on nightstands that aren't beat to hell or made of pasteboard. Mind you, I live right next door to what used to be one of the furniture capitals of the world. As a last resort, I checked into Wally World. And the quality to price ratio is, sadly, very good.

I'll wait until we've got everything else in place and then it will be time to decide. Something may turn up yet, spring yard sale season is just around the corner......

[Tansy_Gold]

70. Asheville?

If so, do spend some time lookin' at those yard sales and estate sales. Better to buy something GOOD that has already lasted a generation or two.

I've never been to NC, but one of my favorite books is Allen Eaton's Handicrafts of the Southern Highlands.

And if you haven't been, there's the 63rd Annual Craft Fair of the Southern Highlands coming up this summer.

http://www.southernhighlandguild.org/event.php?event_type_ID=13&event_main=141



TG, posting and running

[Roland99]

34. 10:15am - Ho hum...nothing special.

Dow 10,347 +38 +0.37%
Nasdaq 2,231 +5 +0.21%
S&P 500 1,104 +4 +0.37%
GlobalDow 1,906 +5 +0.24%
Gold 1,109 -12 -1.04%
Oil 77.98 +0.65 +0.84%

10-yr T-bond
3.74 +0.01

Euro /$1US
1.36 +0.0037

$1US / Yen
90.86 -0.3100

Pound / $1US
1.57 -0.0025

[Demeter]

46. JPMorgan to buy units from RBS Sempra

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/82430bc2-1b02-11df-88fa-00144feab49a.html

JPMorgan on Tuesday agreed to buy a large chunk of RBS Sempra Commodities for $1.7bn in cash in a deal that will challenge the dominance of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Barclays Capital in raw materials dealing.

The bank said it would purchase RBS Sempra’s global oil unit, its profitable metal trading business and operations in coal, freight and power and gas in Europe and Asia. RBS Sempra Commodities will retain its US natural gas and power operations.

The sale of the business – a joint venture between RBS, the rescued UK bank, and US utility group Sempra Energy – was triggered by a European Commission state-aid ruling late last year ordering RBS to divest its stake.

JPMorgan initially considered buying the whole joint venture for up to $4bn, but decided not to because of the large overlap between its existing business and RBS Sempra’s US power and gas unit, bankers said. Although the decision not to bid for the US unit came shortly after the US government’s proposal to clamp down on banks’ proprietary trading, bankers said the developments were unrelated.

Blythe Masters, head of global commodities at JPMorgan in New York, said the transaction would make the bank “a true global leader” in commodities, with the number of corporate customers almost doubling overnight.

“In terms of capability, we are now as good as anyone,” she told the Financial Times. “That was not true before the deal , but it is now.”

In contrast to Barclays, which built its commodities unit slowly over a decade, JPMorgan has built its business via a flurry of acquisitions over the past two years. The purchase in 2008 of Bear Stearns gave the bank a stronghold in the US natural gas and power business, and the subsequent acquisition of energy and agriculture activities from UBS and other small deals in emission further expanded its operations.

Brad Hintz, analyst at Sanford C Bernstein in New York, said that JPMorgan was “clearly breaking into the level now where they’re a competitor against Barclays, Morgan Stanley and Goldman, the historic leaders in this business”.

Lazard advised RBS on the sale and Sempra Energy has retained JPMorgan to review alternatives for the North American power and gas unit.

Donald E. Felsinger, chief executive at Sempra Energy, said the transaction “represents a positive first step of an orderly exit by RBS from the joint venture”.

Deutsche Bank and Australia-based Macquarie were also on the bid for the assets initially, but dropped from the race because of the high price and their concerns about the speed at which RBS wanted to seal a transaction, which limited due diligence.

The purchase will give JPMorgan much needed size and assets for oil and base metals trading. The bank will inherit 30m barrels of crude oil storage capacity worldwide plus access to tankers on lease. On base metals, the bank will now own the profitable Henry Bath & Son warehouses network, considered one of the best in the industry, and become a floor member at the London Metal Exchange, the world’s largest market for base metals such as aluminium and copper.

The transaction will also push JPMorgan into freight and coal trading in the booming Asia-Pacific, a business area where the bank has had little presence.

JPMorgan’s commodities business grew significantly in late 2008 as it benefited from customers seeking to diversify their banking relations, according to consultants Greenwich Associates. Last year, the business grew as the bank expanded. Consultants said that banks such as JPMorgan have continued to invest heavily in commodities in spite of the financial crisis because of the profitability of the business and the belief that the sector represents a rare opportunity for growth while other banking sectors shrink.

[Demeter]

47. Barclays top bosses give up bonuses

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eac6bf60-1b2d-11df-953f-00144feab49a.html

The top two executives of Barclays have given up their 2009 bonuses to win more credibility in influencing regulatory reform in the wake of the financial crisis.

John Varley, chief executive, and Bob Diamond, president, said they had not taken the decision to forgo their multimillion-pound bonuses lightly, but felt it was an important symbolic concession if Barclays’ views were to carry moral authority.

“We want to be part of the debate on the future of global regulation and the economy,” Mr Diamond told the Financial Times.

Less than a year ago, Britain’s second biggest bank was engaged in bitter wrangling with the UK government, only narrowly dodging Treasury pressure to accept a bail-out package.

As Barclays reported a forecast-beating £11.64bn ($18.3bn) annual pre-tax profit, Mr Varley warned governments and regulators not to hamper banks’ recovery, and that of the global economy, by imposing excessive constraints on the sector.

Barclays said that it was distributing £1.5bn in cash bonuses to staff, along with a further £1.2bn of longer-term awards that would vest over three years and be subject to a clawback option.

The bank sought to minimise any backlash against its bonuses by cutting its ratio of pay to revenue from 44 per cent to 38 per cent, putting it on a par with ratios reported by Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. Mr Diamond said he was convinced that the “new norm” for big banks would be a ratio of less than 40 per cent.

The decision by Mr Varley and Mr Diamond to forgo all bonuses for 2009 follows big cuts in Wall Street chief executives’ awards. Lloyd Blankfein at Goldman Sachs was allotted $9m, all in deferred shares, while Jamie Dimon at JPMorgan got $17m, also in deferred shares.

On Tuesday, by contrast, it emerged HSBC planned to increase the basic pay of its chief executive and finance director by a third.

Barclays’ performance for 2009 was buttressed by the contribution of the Barclays Capital investment banking business, headed by Mr Diamond, which made nearly half of the group’s overall pre-tax profits of £5.3bn excluding the sale of Barclays Global Investors. Mr Diamond earned £22m last year from the sale of his equity stake in BGI.

The shares closed up nearly 7 per cent at 293.75p as analysts welcomed the more upbeat outlook on loan loss impairments. “We are past the worst,” said Robert Le Blanc, chief risk officer.

Investors also applauded a faster accumulation of capital than expected, which gave the bank a core tier one ratio – a key measure of capital strength – of 10 per cent, nearly double the 2008 tally. “We think 10 per cent is enough,” Mr Varley said.

[Ghost Dog]

49. European Bonds Decline Amid Auction Supply, Greek Aid Concern

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Government bonds declined across Europe as Spain and France sold about 11 billion euros ($15 billion) of debt, Britain posted an unexpected deficit and concern about Greece’s budget woes lingered.

The drop in Greek bonds pushed the two-year yield up by the most in more than two weeks as customs workers extended a three- day strike to protest against government austerity measures. Gilts fell as the U.K. statistics office said government spending exceeded revenue by 4.3 billion pounds ($6.7 billion) last month after tax receipts tumbled.

“Supply has been digested so far, but the concerns have not changed, and there’s pressure on governments to show how they are going to deal with budget deficits,” said Elwin de Groot, a senior market economist at Rabobank Groep in Utrecht, Netherlands. “The market is still very wary about the Greek government’s resolve.”

The yield on the 10-year German bund, Europe’s benchmark security, rose 5 basis points, the most since Dec. 22, to 3.25 percent as of 4:09 p.m. in London, while that on the 10-year French note increased to 3.54 percent. The yield on the Greek 10-year bond increased as much as 19 basis points to 6.57 percent, the highest since Feb. 9. Yields on Britain’s benchmark 10-year gilt rose 6 basis points to 4.09 percent.

France’s sale of 4.1 billion euros of 2.5 percent bonds maturing 2015 drew bids equivalent to 1.99 times the amount on offer, Agence France Tresor said. The country also sold inflation-linked bonds. Spain sold 959 million euros of 2037 securities.

Record Issuance

Governments in the region are selling record amounts of debt in an attempt to revive their economies after the worst recession since World War II,

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=asIdWuFr.NN8

[Ghost Dog]

50. Spain’s New Bonds Gain as Government Eases Deficit Concerns

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Spain’s 5 billion euros ($6.7 billion) of new benchmark bonds rose in the first day of trading as government plans to cut spending ease concerns the nation’s budget deficit is out of control.

The 4.65 percent securities due July 2025 increased 0.65, or 6.5 euros per 1,000-euro face amount, to a bid price of 100.44 according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc prices on Bloomberg. The yield, which moves inversely to the bond price, fell 5 basis points to 4.61 percent.

Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero’s government has sought to distance Spain from the budget woes of Greece, which triggered a crisis of confidence in sovereign debt. Finance Minister Elena Salgado traveled to London before the issue to reassure bond investors that plans to cut public expenditure by 50 billion euros would be enforced.

“Investors appreciated hearing the news from the horse’s mouth,” said Ciaran O’Hagan, a fixed-income strategist at Societe Generale SA in Paris. “It added more credibility to the plans.”

...

Spain’s bond issue may have “soothed” some investor concerns, according to Puneet Sharma, head of European credit strategy at Barclays Capital in London. “With a significant amount of issuance expected in 2010, the calm market reaction to this deal could encourage further transactions to come to market,” Sharma wrote in a note to investors.

The cost of insuring against losses on Spanish sovereign debt rose in the credit-default swaps market today with five- year contracts increasing 2 basis points to 134, according to CMA DataVision prices in London.

Credit-default swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on a company or country’s ability to repay debt. A basis point on a contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=adf4Ny.3o7xQ

[Ghost Dog]

51. U.K. Posts First January Deficit Since at Least 1993 (Update4)

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Britain posted its first budget deficit for January since monthly data began in 1993 as the longest recession on record shriveled the nation’s tax take.

Government spending exceeded revenue by 4.3 billion pounds ($6.7 billion) last month, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists forecast a 2.6 billion-pound surplus, according to the median of 16 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

The pound fell after the release showed Britain failed to generate a surplus in the biggest tax-collection month of the year as the health of public finances around Europe attract investor scrutiny. With a general election due by June, the figures increase pressure for a more aggressive deficit-cutting program than proposed by Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

...

The pound fell 0.5 percent to $1.5600 as of 4:41 p.m. today in London. The yield on the 10-year government bond rose 7 basis points to 4.096 percent. The two-year yield was little changed at 1.138 percent.

Political Debate

The political debate over how to tame the deficit has taken center stage as some investors and the opposition Conservatives warn that Britain could lose its top credit rating. At more than 12 percent of gross domestic product, the U.K. budget deficit is on a par with that of Greece, where bonds have plunged amid investor concern the country may be unable to fund itself.

...

Central government spending rose 9.7 percent and tax receipts fell 7.7 percent the statistics office said. Lower revenues from income tax and capital gains led the decrease, overshadowing an increase in value-added tax after a temporary cut in the VAT rate expired.

A measure of the actual cash entering and leaving the Treasury showed a 11.8 billion-pound surplus in January. Economists predicted a 20 billion-pound surplus, according to the median forecast of 11 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Net debt stood at 59.9 percent of GDP.

...

Brown, his Labour Party trailing in opinion polls, says Conservative plans to start cutting spending this year risk wrecking the recovery. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling plans to cut the deficit by 2014, starting the process next year. He this week rejected a call by 20 economists to eliminate the structural deficit in the next five years.

“It’s really going to be after the election we get the concrete detail from whoever’s the new government, probably the Conservatives, so it’s a nervy time and I don’t think the markets are going to like it too much in the build up to the election,” Alan Clarke, an economist at BNP Paribas in London, said in a telephone interview.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aIoUcW9b8bS8

[Ghost Dog]

52. Eastern Europe Boosted as Greek Woes Spur Bond Switch

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Investors are returning to eastern Europe a year after the region’s banking crisis triggered a global market selloff, as concern Greece may be unable to fund itself bolsters countries with lower borrowing needs.

Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world’s largest bond fund, said it added Polish debt holdings last week and HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s biggest bank by market value, said Hungary’s stocks are a “buying opportunity.” Czech, Turkish and Russian bonds are poised to outperform because the countries will have about a third of the debt levels of Greece and Italy by 2011, according to Credit Agricole Cheuvreux, the brokerage unit of France’s largest bank by branches.

Investors are seeking to capture the cheapest valuations in seven months for the MSCI EM Eastern Europe equity index relative to the MSCI World Index and the widest gap in bond yields over U.S. Treasuries since December. Hungary, the first European Union member to be bailed out by the International Monetary Fund during the credit crisis, has halved its budget gap since 2006 while Poland has begun a record $10 billion of state asset sales to help fund its shortfall.

...

Eastern Europe’s finances have improved from a year ago when a 40 percent plunge in the zloty against the Swiss franc in the seven months to Feb. 17, 2009, sparked doubts borrowers could repay their foreign-currency loans. Poland’s Financial Supervisory Commission estimates 65 percent of the country’s mortgages are in francs or other foreign currencies. Investor concern drove the MSCI eastern Europe index down 15.7 percent in January 2009 and 6.3 percent in February.

In the past year, the zloty has gained 18.9 percent against the franc as the IMF provided a $20.6 billion credit line for Poland. The forint strengthened 12 percent versus the euro in the last 12 months as the government cut its budget deficit to an estimated 3.8 percent of gross domestic product from 9.3 percent in 2006 to comply with the terms of loans from the IMF, World Bank and EU totaling about $27 billion.

Poland, the only EU country to avoid a recession last year, is targeting 3 percent economic growth in 2010 from 1.7 percent in 2009. The largest of the EU’s eastern European members is offering stakes in state-owned utilities, insurers and chemical producers to quadruple asset sales this year and plans to cut its budget gap to 2.9 percent of GDP in 2012 to meet EU criteria for adopting the euro.

...

The country’s debt is equivalent to 51.7 percent of GDP, less than half the level of Greece and below the euro zone average of 78.2 percent, European Commission data for 2009 show.

Hungary pared its estimate for the economy’s contraction in 2010 to 0.2 percent from 0.3 percent this week. It’s targeting a budget deficit of 2.8 percent of GDP next year and 2.5 percent in 2012, according to the finance ministry’s euro convergence report on Jan. 29.

...

The Czech economy unexpectedly contracted 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, returning the economy to the brink of recession after two quarters of growth, according to government data released Feb. 12. Hungary, Romania and Slovakia all remained in recession, according to preliminary data released the same day.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ajixGllljubo

[Ghost Dog]

53. Shirakawa Warning Shows BOJ Wary of Japan Debt Losing ‘Trust’

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s central bank chief escalated pressure on Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama to contain the world’s largest debt with a warning that investor “trust” won’t be assured in the aftermath of Greece’s budget woes.

“It’s important to gain the trust of financial markets by showing a path for fiscal consolidation,” Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said in Tokyo yesterday. He spoke after his policy board kept interest rates, the level of its government-bond purchases, and bank-lending programs unchanged.

Shirakawa’s remarks reflect his concern that increasing the Bank of Japan’s debt purchases risks giving investors the impression that it is willing to fund fiscal expansion. They also highlight rising tension with political leaders after Finance Minister Naoto Kan this week stepped up heat on the BOJ to fight deflation by saying Japan needs an inflation target.

“Shirakawa wants to give a fresh reminder that Japan will lose trust from the market if the nation uses monetary policy to support the government’s finances,” said Norio Miyagawa, a senior economist at Shinko Research Institute in Tokyo. “Basically, it’s impossible to escape from deflation with monetary policy alone.”

Credit-default swaps tied to Japan’s government bonds show an increase in risk. The cost of protecting the debt from default for five years has doubled to 78.8 basis points since the Hatoyama administration started on Sept. 16, according to prices from CMA DataVision in New York.

Bond Yields

The yield on Japan’s 10-year bond fell one basis point yesterday to 1.315 percent, a three-week low amid the prospect of prolonged deflation.

As part of its efforts to sustain an economic recovery, the Bank of Japan unveiled a program of lending 10 trillion yen ($109 billion) to commercial banks in December. It’s also buying 1.8 trillion yen in government bonds each month, and has kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.1 percent since December 2008.

“Monetary policy isn’t aimed at fiscal funding,” Shirakawa said. “It’s aimed at achieving sustainable growth under stable prices. It’s important that governments respect this stance and markets have faith in it.”

Concerns about the state of public finances in European nations including Greece have roiled global financial markets and weakened the euro. “Increasingly, attention is being paid to fiscal developments of each country and their impact on markets, as we can see in the case of Greece,” Shirakawa said.

‘Burning House’

Central bank board member Seiji Nakamura warned this month that the government can’t ignore Greece’s fiscal woes, saying in a speech that the European country’s concerns aren’t just a “burning house on the other side of the river.”

Hatoyama’s administration has yet to detail plans to repair its finances since Standard and Poor’s warned last month that it may cut the nation’s AA rating. Kan aims to develop a fiscal strategy by June, and this week he said the government will consider overhauling the sales tax.

Hatoyama later repeated his stance that the government won’t raise the sales tax for at least four years. His Democratic Party of Japan is trying to sustain the recovery as it faces an upper house election in July.

Economic growth accelerated to a 4.6 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, led by a trade revival that prompted exporters including Panasonic Corp. to Nissan Motor Co. to raise their profit forecasts. At the same time, the GDP figures showed deepening price declines that threaten to stunt the rebound.

Kan’s Battle

Kan has been pushing the central bank to battle deflation as his ability to bolster the recovery is constrained by a public debt that’s approaching twice the size of the economy. Shirakawa says the bank can’t spur prices on its own because adding cash to the economy isn’t enough to drive spending.

...

Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 1.3 percent in December from a year earlier. This week’s GDP report showed the GDP deflator, a broader gauge of prices, tumbled 3 percent in the fourth quarter, the most since records began in 1955.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=alNozWl7FomQ

[Ghost Dog]

54. LEAP/E2020: Sudden intensification of global systemic crisis

Sudden intensification of global systemic crisis – Strengthening of five fundamental negative trends - Public announcement GEAB N°42 (February 16, 2010) -

LEAP/E2020 is of the view that the effect of States’ spending trillions to « counteract the crisis » will have fizzled out. These vast sums had the effect of slowing down the development of the systemic global crisis for several months but, as anticipated in previous GEAB reports, this strategy will only have ultimately served to clearly drag States into the crisis caused by the financial institutions.

Therefore our team anticipates, in this 42nd issue of the GEAB, a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily « frozen » in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years.

As a matter of fact, in February 2010, a year after us stating that the end of 2009 would mark the beginning of the phase of global geopolitical dislocation, anyone can see that this process is well established: states on the edge of bankruptcy, remorseless rise in unemployment, millions of people coming to the end of their social security benefits, falling wages and salaries, limiting of public services and disintegration of the global governance system (failure of the Copenhagen summit, growing Chinese/US confrontation, return of the risk of an Iran/Israel/USA conflict, wars worldwide… (1)). However, we are only at the start of this phase for which LEAP/E2020 will supply a likely timeframe in the next GEAB issue.

The sudden intensification of the global systemic crisis will be characterised by the acceleration and/or strengthening of five fundamental negative trends:

. the explosion of the bubble in public deficits and a corresponding increase in state defaults
. the fatal impact of the Western banking system with mounting debt defaults and the wall of debt coming to maturity
. the inescapable rise in interest rates
. the increase in issues causing international tension
. a growing social insecurity.

...

In this public announcement, we have chosen to analyse the « Greek case », on the one hand because it seems indicative of what 2010 has in store for us, and on the other because it is a perfect illustration of the way in which news and information on the world crisis is moving towards « make-believe news » between blocs and interests which are increasingly in conflict. Clearly it is a « must » to learn how to decipher worldwide news and information in the months and years to come which will be a growing means of manipulatory activity.

/Continues... http://leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-42-is-available!-Second-half-of-2010-Sudden-intensification-of-the-global-systemic-crisis-Strengthening-of-five_a4294.html

[florida08]

56. I know no one posts in the afternoon

but here goes:

Study: States must fill $1 trillion pension gap

HARRISBURG, Pa. – States may be forced to reduce benefits, raise taxes or slash government services to address a $1 trillion funding shortfall in public sector retirement benefits, according to a new study that warns of even more debilitating costs if immediate action isn't taken.

The Pew Center on the States released a survey Thursday of state-administered pension plans, retiree health care and other post-employment benefits in all 50 states that blamed a decade's worth of policy decisions for leaving them shortchanged.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_pension_shortfall_study

God bless and help us all

[Tansy_Gold]

59. I think Ozy posted the same info in #5 above.

Tansy Gold, who isn't waiting on god to help her

[Dr.Phool]

60. He's busy fixing the Olympics, or a basketball game anyway.

The great Bookie In The Sky's work is never done.

[Roland99]

61. Fed hikes discount rate, says not tightening

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-hikes-discount-rate-says-not-tightening-2010-02-18?dist=afterbell

The Federal Reserve announced late Thursday that it was raising its discount rate in order to push banks to borrow from the private market for short-term credit. In a statement, the Fed said it would raise its discount, or primary credit rate, to 0.75% from 0.50% effective on Friday. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke signaled last week that the Fed was mulling the move. Fed watchers had expected the move to come at the next Fed meeting in March. Today's action shows a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed officials. The Fed said the move is intended to "normalize" their operations as the financial crisis winds down. The change is not a tightening and does not signal any change in monetary policy, the Fed said.

[TheWatcher]

68. Here We Go.

The Futures Collapsed at the open, shortly after this news came out.

"The Recovery" is a sham.

And we are about to get a good reminder about that.

Most outside of this thread will continue to ignore it, but that won't change the reality.

[fan of the arts]

73. I only pay attention to Tim Wood, he's an unrecognized genius

He knows the markets go up and down so, he finds some math to fit the ups and downs and calls it "a cycle". For years, people fall for his crap, post it all over the internet and consider people who really know what's going on as fringe conspiracy kooks.

Then, about a year or 2 later when all the "conspiracy kook nonsense" comes true, Mr. Wood is still making a fine living finding other suckers who've fallen for the mental traps society set up for them, usually at the high cost of a degree in economics, for example.

So, a tip-o-the-hat to predatory capitalist Tim Wood, using people's sub-knowledge against them for profit!

[Dr.Phool]

74. Next week, he'll be flying his plane into a building.

He makes about as much sense as that guy did.

[TheWatcher]

76. You are indeed correect, my friend. Tim Wood is nothing more than a useful Establishment Tool.

But he's just one of many.

[wordpix]

71. yeah, the economy is so hot we've got to cool it down

:sarcasm:

[Dr.Phool]

75. 12:15 am, and I should really be in bed, but.......

Asian stocks are down big-time.

Wang Chung down almost 3%.
Nikkei off about 1.5%
Dow futures taking it in the shorts

Everybody is blaming the Fed.


Looks like a fun tomorrow.

[TheWatcher]

77. Ah yes, good Doctor, The Fed does seem to be the Cover Story.

But I think we all know better. :)

Just more Transfer of Wealth from the Many to the Few.

All by design.

Oh, and before I forget, "No one could have foreseen....." :)

On Edit: Looks like TPTB are letting some of the Air Out Of their Bubble to help some of the Elite to get out of their Long Dollar Positions.

First, IMF Gold Sale Announcements.

Then, Fed hiking the discount rate.

This is going to get interesting.