STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday February 5

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday February 5, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Name(s): David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 4, 2010

Dow... 10,002.18 -268.37 (-2.61%)
Nasdaq... 2,125.43 -65.48 (-2.99%)
S&P 500... 1,063.11 -34.17 (-3.11%)
Gold future... 1,064 -48.00 (-4.32%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.60 -0.10 (-2.73%)
30-Year Bond 4.55 -0.09 (-1.83%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

---

Handy Links - Market Data and News:
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    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666

Handy Links - Government Issues:
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Handy Links - Videos:
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---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Bad Assumptions
BY MICHAEL PANZNER | FEBRUARY 4, 2010

Yesterday’s ADP National Employment report revealed that nonfarm private employment fell an estimated 22,000 in January, the smallest drop in two years. Not surprisingly, the data cheered those who believe a slowing rate of job losses means a recovery is around the corner.

Regardless, the data I found interesting is the employment trend by size of firm. While the financial crisis has forced many employers to restructure and downsize, the segment of the economy that has received the most support in terms of bailouts and other government assistance, and which has had the best access to bank loans and other sources of funding, has been at the forefront when it comes to cutting staff. In contrast, small businesses, which have been squeezed on all sides, now employ more people than they did ten years ago. ...

One of the many (dubious) assumptions that Wall Street rocket scientists made before the housing and credit bubbles burst centered on what mortgagors would do if the economy hit a "speed bump" (back then, of course, the conventional wisdom was that severe downturns had been eliminated by expert policymaking, reams of academic research, and the wisdom of the ages).

Generally speaking, they believed that homeowners who ran into financial trouble would behave in the same way that others had before them -- that is, they would make sure the mortgage bill was among the first to be paid each month.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[truedelphi]

87. I appreciate your posting of this

Part of your analysis -
Regardless, the data I found interesting is the employment trend by size of firm. While the financial crisis has forced many employers to restructure and downsize, the segment of the economy that has received the most support in terms of bailouts and other government assistance, and which has had the best access to bank loans and other sources of funding, has been at the forefront when it comes to cutting staff. In contrast, small businesses, which have been squeezed on all sides, now employ more people than they did ten years ago. ...


Like I have been thinking for quite a while, the Bailouts and the Bernanke giveaways are helping the one sector of the economy that is really not all that great on helping average Americans. It is smaller businesses that keep the economy going. And they do it without much help from anyone but themselves!

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jan
Briefing.com -40K
Consensus 15K
Prior -85K

08:30 Unemployment Rate Jan
Briefing.com 10.1%
Consensus 10.0%
Prior 10.0%

08:30 Average Workweek Jan
Briefing.com 33.2
Consensus 33.2
Prior 33.2

08:30 Hourly Earnings Jan
Briefing.com 0.2%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior 0.2%

15:00 Consumer Credit Dec
Briefing.com -$12.3B
Consensus -$10.0B
Prior -$17.5B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

25. NFP down 29,000 - 8.4 mln jobs lost - Unemployment rate @ 9.7% (dead people tell no tales)

U.S. Jan nonfarm payroll down 29,000 ex-census
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. has lost 8.4 mln jobs during recession
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Jan. nonfarm payrolls down 20,000
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Jan jobless rate falls to 9.7%, low since Aug
8:30 a.m. Today

[Loge23]

33. The government officially jumps the shark.

They have got to be kidding - 9.7!!
"Let them read bullshit" has effectively replaced "Let them eat crumbs"!

[Demeter]

51. It's Just That All The Long-Term Unemployed Have Fallen Off the Lists

and into the cavern of despair and destitution...

[TheWatcher]

57. The Government may have Jumped The Shark, but don't tell that to many of the people in GD that are

orgasmic over these numbers.

The Propagandists know how to play the game well.

It's bullshit, but they know that Americans value feeling good, false hope, and false reality and being conned into prosperity rather than actually experiencing it.

As for how it is playing out here, those who buy it seem to care more about how it is positive for "The Football Team, than what it actually means to the health of the country.

And people wonder why nothing ever seems to change.

Why SHOULD the elected leadership represent the people's interests when the people only seem to care about "what makes The Party look good.", instead of what we elected them to actually DO?

[tclambert]

43. The unemployment rate went down?

But all the experts said it would stay the same or go up. I want new experts! Somebody get on that!

[tclambert]

45. Honestly, even the psychic astrologers were saying "Today will bring bad news for the jobs market."

I always wondered why they bother with astrology if they're already psychic.

[OnlinePoker]

49. These are the same economists

who couldn't predict the country would go into a recession when it had already been in one for over a year.

[TheWatcher]

61. Then when everything collapsed, threw their hands over their heads and in bewilderment proclaimed

"No One Could have Foreseen....."

That's funny, there were people posting in this thread that were able to "foresee" it coming as long as two years prior.

But you shouldn't listen to THEM.

They're just "kooks" and "conspiracy theorists" that want The Economy and Good, Decent Democrats to FAIL.

:crazy:

[willing dwarf]

3. Is today going to be a Niagara Falls experience?

Sounds like between the Toyota recalls and the collapse of the economy in Greece, things are taking a big tumble. If investors rush back to the dollar, how will that effect our debt fees here in the US?

[ozymandius]

5. The debt question can be answered to its fullest by our currency specialists here.

Typically what happens is that the dollar increases in demand, and thus in value, which leads to U.S. products becoming more expensive in the export markets. This dynamic will lower demand for American made goods.

On the debt front: I posted last night the the bond markets crept up only incrementally. That was not true. I must have been looking at old data. The 10- and 30-year bond market yield rates fell in reciprocity with stocks. So that lowers the national debt burden in terms of interest owed.

[saigon68]

6. Today will be interesting

The Elves will be out in full force today.

[AnneD]

14. In the immortal the words of ....

of Bette Davis 'you had better buckle up it is going to be a bumpy ride.'....

esp if you drive a Toyota :spray:

[zbdent]

13. the "liberal media" is looking forward to "Obama's recovery", the Dow breaking 10000

the wrong way ...

all the while forgetting that the Dow started under Obama's stewardship at 8,281.22 (and, when it dropped to 7,949.09 after his inauguration, the "liberal media" was concerned that it was a sign of the trend of his presidency ...)

[TheWatcher]

59. You do understand that what has happened in The Dow in the past 10 months is nothing more than

A Bubble that has nothing to do with the state of the REAL Economy?

[UpInArms]

62. I sometimes wonder what

"ignored" posts ... but I'm certain by the response that my choice was a good one.

[TheWatcher]

63. It was. nothing you haven't heard before.

Basically The Republicans and The Media will use this to sabotage Obama, blah, blah, blah.

I didn't have the heart to tell it there is really no "Recovery" going on.

[Tansy_Gold]

65. Wait a minute. I didn't know we have a "real" economy. . . .

Hey, coulda fooled me!

:sarcasm: (for the lurkers and "visitors" from GD & GD-P. . . . )


Tansy Gold, wondering where to find it. . . . .along with an icon for shit-eating grin, which is eviler than :evilgrin:

[Demeter]

18. Yup. Without a Barrel

Hope the White House enjoys the ride.

[ozymandius]

4. Oil falls below $73 amid sliding stock markets

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $73 a barrel Friday in Asia after a major sell-off the previous day as investors dumped stocks and commodities amid doubts about the global economic recovery.

Benchmark crude for March delivery was down 38 cents at $72.76 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $3.84 to settle at $73.14 on Thursday, the biggest one-day drop in four months. ...

In other Nymex trading in March contracts, heating oil was down 2.5 cents at $1.91 a gallon, and gasoline fell 2.3 cents to $1.928 a gallon. Natural gas rose 1.2 cents to $5.428 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Demeter]

50. This is Amusing, Since Gas went up a dime since Monday

[ozymandius]

7. Job losses from Great Recession about to get worse

...
When the Labor Department releases the January unemployment report Friday, it will also update its estimate of jobs lost in the year that ended in March 2009. The number is expected to rise by roughly 800,000, raising the number of jobs shed during the recession to around 8 million.

The new data will help illustrate the scope of the jobs crisis. Analysts think the economy might generate 1 million to 2 million jobs this year. And they say it will take at least three to four years for the job market to return to anything like normal. ...

Wall Street economists expect the January report will show a tiny increase of 5,000 jobs. That would be only the second monthly gain since the recession began. But it probably wouldn't be enough to hold down the unemployment rate, which is forecast to rise to 10.1 percent. That would match October's 26-year high. And it would be the fourth-straight month of double-digit joblessness.

The Labor Department's revisions on employment levels are done every year. They are based on unemployment insurance tax data that companies submit to states. ...

Public concern about persistent unemployment has forced President Barack Obama and members of Congress to shift their attention to jobs and the economy and away from health care reform. The Senate will begin working Monday on legislation that would give companies a tax break for hiring new workers, Majority Leader Harry Reid said Thursday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100205/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy

---

Really now - job losses and healthcare are tightly connected. President Obama and Congress have an obligation to address these two issues at once by passing comprehensive healthcare legislation aimed toward universal coverage. Healthcare, as a singular expense, is cannibalizing other sectors of the economy, thereby stunting the growth of sustainable job producing sectors.

[ozymandius]

11. Bloomberg on the Birth Death Adjustment

From Ritholtz:

With the NFP payroll report out tomorrow morning, Bloomberg.com put together a timely infographic on one of our favorite pet peeves: the Birth Death Adjustment.

Overall, the piece is good (see charts below). One small quibble: They should have mentioned that int he beginning of the cycle, the B/D catches job creation that the usual methods miss; problem is that at the end of the business cycle, it misses job losses the usual methods catches.

The Ritholtz link has two interactive charts.

[ozymandius]

12. hiccup

Something went awry.

[tclambert]

21. Just to make sure I understand this . . .

The job losses they are talking about were in the past. They were already lost. What's changing is the accounting. The substance is unchanged. Only the reporting of the numbers will change.

This seems like an important difference.

For instance, does it actually, in reality, truthfully affect the profitability of any company?

Hmmm, maybe it does in an emotional, irrational way. Consumer confidence may drop, and customers' willingness to commit to large purchases--like cars, houses, and Thomasville dining room sets--may decline.

[ozymandius]

8. World stocks hit by fears of debt crisis contagion

LONDON – World stocks tumbled again Friday as investors worried that the debt crisis enveloping Greece may spread to other vulnerable countries in Europe such as Portugal, and amid fears that jobs data later will show that the U.S. recovery is weaker than expected.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 82.34 points, or 1.6 percent, at 5,056.97, while Germany's DAX fell 69.61 points, or 1.3 percent, to 5,463.63. The CAC-40 in France was 76.60 points, or 2.1 percent, lower at 3,612.65.

Once again, stock markets in Greece, Portugal and Spain led the retreat in Europe — Greece's main composite index was down a further 3.5 percent, while Portugal's PSI 20 fell 3 percent and Spain's IBEX dropped 2.6 percent. ...

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 sank 2.9 percent, or 298.89 points, to 10,057.09, while China's Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.9 percent, or 55.91, to 2,939.40. Hong Kong's Hang Seng buckled 3.3 percent to 19,665.08.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100205/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

9. Stocks Plunge, Bond Risk Climbs on Deficits, U.S. Jobs Concern

...
The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations’ stocks slid 1.2 percent to a four-month low at 10.20 a.m. in London. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.7 percent. The euro weakened as much as 0.6 percent against the dollar. Copper fell to the lowest level since October and gold dropped.

The cost of credit-default swap insurance against a default by Spain, Greece and Portugal rose to a record after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet failed to allay investors’ concern that indebted euro members threaten the stability of the common currency. The U.S. economy probably added 15,000 jobs last month, according to economists, leaving the unemployment rate near a 26-year high of 10 percent. ...

The Labor Department report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington may show employment grew for only the second month since the end of 2007. The median forecast of economists for a 15,000 gain includes a prediction by Citic Securities Co. that the economy lost as many as 100,000 jobs, while Patrick Franke at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt predicts that the same number of workers found employment.

Financial and mining shares led the declines in Europe, as all 19 industry groups on the Stoxx 600 fell. KBC Groep NV, Belgium’s biggest bank, sank 5.6 percent in Brussels. In London, ICAP Plc, the world’s biggest broker of transactions between banks, plummeted 18 percent, the most in more than 14 months, after cutting its profit forecast. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, slipped 1.9 percent. ...

“We are now seeing the development of a very dangerous contagion effect,” Gary Jenkins, the head of credit strategy at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London, wrote in a note to investors. “Unless the markets calm down, then corporates that are otherwise healthy may struggle to raise funds because of the location of their business.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7vmCX5d1JCc&pos=1

[Robbien]

37. Morgan Stanley: Now Start Shorting The Euro Even More, It Will Crack

Shorts have made a lot of money on the euro so far, but keep going, and in fact, weigh into the trade, says Morgan Stanley's Emma Lawson.

Euro currency risks keep getting worse and the euro will crack further.

http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-keep-shorting-the-euro-like-crazy-it-will-crack-2010-2


Scary how they think, there's alot of money to be made if we can destroy the European Union.

[ozymandius]

10. Cuomo Puts Lewis Atop List of CEOs Cited for Financial Meltdown

...
Lewis, chief executive officer until December, and then- Chief Financial Officer Joe Price were accused along with the bank of civil fraud today by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. They allegedly defrauded investors and taxpayers by not disclosing losses at Merrill Lynch & Co. before shareholders voted on the firm’s pending takeover, and using those losses to extract bailout funds from U.S. regulators, according to Cuomo.

Lewis, 62, who retired after criticism of the takeover, joins more than half a dozen peers who left or lost their jobs amid $1.7 trillion of losses tied to the global financial crisis. Among them were Citigroup Inc.’s Charles O. Prince, Merrill Lynch & Co.’s E. Stanley O’Neal, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s Richard S. Fuld and Wachovia Corp.’s G. Kennedy Thompson -- none of whom was charged with wrongdoing. ...

Cuomo’s case concerns events leading up to the January 2009 purchase of Merrill Lynch, a deal that Lewis crafted in September 2008 as Lehman Brothers collapsed and regulators were trying to save the rest of the financial system.

According to Cuomo’s complaint, the bank failed to tell its own investors that losses at Merrill Lynch continued to pile up before they voted to approve the deal, and didn’t disclose plans for the brokerage to pay $3.57 billion in bonuses “for the worst year in Merrill’s history.”

The bank then used those losses, which ultimately surpassed $15 billion for the fourth quarter of 2008, to persuade federal regulators to provide additional bailout funds, the complaint said. Lewis and Price did that by making “an empty threat to terminate the merger” to abort the deal by citing a clause concerning “material adverse changes,” the complaint said.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-02-05/bofa-s-lewis-faces-squeeze-by-cuomo-over-role-in-credit-crunch.html

---

This ultimate leads to Treasury and the Federal Reserve. As for the funds provided for the bailout: it looks as though grounds are being prepared for defrauding the taxpayer.

[Festivito]

15. Debt: 02/03/2010 12,354,041,054,846.90 (DOWN 6,902,934,498.58) (Wed)

(Up a little. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,850,078,042,131.27 + 4,503,963,012,715.63
UP 334,538,130.44 + DOWN 7,237,472,629.02

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.72, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,642,718 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,027..
A family of three owes $120,080.99. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 34 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 1,856,146,840.65.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,423,045,911.16.
The average for the last 34 days would be 1,255,628,745.14.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 85 reports in 126 days of FY2010 averaging 5.23B$ per report, 3.53B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,082 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.7 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/03/2010 12,354,041,054,846.90 BHO (UP 1,727,164,005,933.82 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,444,212,051,335.20 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,286,804,751,883.72 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/13/2010 -000,144,326,167.15 ---
01/14/2010 -025,105,278,682.17 -
01/15/2010 +057,080,501,160.91 ------------**********
01/19/2010 -000,292,818,574.91 --- Tue
01/20/2010 +001,498,198,188.82 ------------*********
01/21/2010 -031,161,420,148.11 -
01/22/2010 -000,070,049,877.74 ----
01/25/2010 -000,041,466,126.01 ---- Mon
01/26/2010 +000,973,181,275.87 ------------********
01/27/2010 +000,063,416,019.94 ------------*******
01/28/2010 -024,245,578,618.07 -
01/29/2010 -000,416,981,206.21 ---
02/01/2010 +090,319,223,365.33 ------------********** Mon
02/02/2010 -000,066,012,400.47 ----
02/03/2010 +000,334,538,130.44 ------------********

68,725,126,340.47 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4255605&mesg_id=4255619

[Festivito]

80. Debt: 02/04/2010 12,346,427,470,024.01 (DOWN 7,613,584,822.89) (Thu)

(Down a little more. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. I'm getting hungry. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,840,400,752,727.59 + 4,506,026,717,296.42
DOWN 9,677,289,403.68 + UP 2,063,704,580.79

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.72, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,651,358 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,001.21.
A family of three owes $120,003.63. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 2,443,013,555.08.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,872,977,058.90.
The average for the last 31 days would be 1,812,558,444.09.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 86 reports in 127 days of FY2010 averaging 5.08B$ per report, 3.44B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,081 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.8 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/04/2010 12,346,427,470,024.01 BHO (UP 1,719,550,421,110.93 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,436,598,466,512.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,254,790,868,322.75 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/14/2010 -025,105,278,682.17 -
01/15/2010 +057,080,501,160.91 ------------**********
01/19/2010 -000,292,818,574.91 --- Tue
01/20/2010 +001,498,198,188.82 ------------*********
01/21/2010 -031,161,420,148.11 -
01/22/2010 -000,070,049,877.74 ----
01/25/2010 -000,041,466,126.01 ---- Mon
01/26/2010 +000,973,181,275.87 ------------********
01/27/2010 +000,063,416,019.94 ------------*******
01/28/2010 -024,245,578,618.07 -
01/29/2010 -000,416,981,206.21 ---
02/01/2010 +090,319,223,365.33 ------------********** Mon
02/02/2010 -000,066,012,400.47 ----
02/03/2010 +000,334,538,130.44 ------------********
02/04/2010 -009,677,289,403.68 --

59,192,163,103.94 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4257090&mesg_id=4257140

[Dr.Phool]

16. State Farm cancels thousands of homeowners in Florida.

I mentioned this about a month ago, that my already exorbitant insurance rates jumped 40% this year. That was WITHOUT the increase they were seeking. They did that by eliminating all discounts such as multi-line, monitored home security, hurricane proofing, etc.

Just sitting around waiting to see what hits first. A hurricane or the mailman.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



State Farm cancels thousands in Fla.
125,000 customers to be cut during hurricane season


msnbc.com and NBC News
updated 6:23 p.m. ET, Wed., Feb. 3, 2010

The largest homeowners insurer in Florida is canceling the policies of 125,000 of its most vulnerable customers beginning Aug. 1, halfway through the 2010 hurricane season.

The company, State Farm Florida, began sending out cancellation notices this week to nearly a fifth of its 714,000 customers, most of them in the state’s hurricane-prone coastal regions.

A spokesman for State Farm said the decision was the direct result of its failure to win a 47.1 percent rate increase from state regulators.

State Farm stopped writing new policies and sought the increase a year ago, saying severe losses from a series of devastating hurricanes in recent years had rendered its business model unworkable. It said that without the large increase, it would be insolvent by the end of 2011.

The losses for State Farm are especially large because it is the largest insurer in the state. But the insurance industry across the board has been slammed by heavy hurricane losses in recent years, most notably from hurricanes Ivan (which caused $8.9 billion in damage) and Frances ($8.3 billion) in 2004 and Wilma ($20.6 billion) in 2005.

Although there were no catastrophic hurricane losses in the last two years, the potential continues to drive up costs for Florida insurers, whose access to reinsurance is restricted because of the risk, the state Office of Insurance Regulation said. It projected that 102 of the 200 largest Florida carriers were running net underwriting losses.

Numbers like that led State Farm, which said it was losing $20 million a month, to give notice that it would pull out of the Florida market unless it could enact a mammoth rate hike. In a settlement with regulators in December, it was granted a 14.8 percent rate increase and permission to drop its most vulnerable customers over an 18-month period as a condition for its agreement not to withdraw from Florida completely.

Jim Thompson, president of State Farm Florida, called the arrangement “an important step,” saying it would help “stem State Farm Florida’s deteriorating financial condition.”

Policyholders have six months
The first of the cancellations will take effect at the beginning of August because state law requires six months’ notice, State Farm said. That will put them in the middle of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

To mitigate the impact, State Farm agreed to allow its agents to place canceled policyholders with other companies. It said those agents could continue to service the policies even though they were no longer with State Farm.

Victoria Baer, a 26-year State Farm customer who owns an advertising business in Jacksonville, was waiting this week to see whether she would get one of the notices.

Customers are “money for them,” she said, but “what’s not money for them is the risk.”

[DemReadingDU]

19. that's bad news

47.1% increase is a lot, so couldn't they just re-negotiate and raise rates 20%, instead of outright cancelling people? It's almost like the failure to be granted such a large increase is an excuse to cancel policies.

[tclambert]

22. Well, there's your profit motive at work.

Who wants to insure houses in Florida during hurricane season? An insurance company can save a lot in claims expenses if they can turn it off during a period of high claims. Cutting expenses means more PROFIT!

It's a form of red-lining. Car insurance companies wouldn't insure any cars in urban areas if the state didn't make them.

When you think about it, any group insurance plan is a form of socialism. And the profit motive works against the goal of providing insurance to everybody to save the unfortunate few from financial calamity. For-profit insurance companies would obviously want to identify the higher-risk customers and exclude them. But those are the very people who most need insurance protection.

[Dr.Phool]

17. Futures looking butt-ugly this morning.

S&P -7.90
Nazquack -4.75
Dow -60.00

[DCBob]

20. Black Friday looming...

:scared:

[tclambert]

23. I'm such a contrarian, I see this as an opportunity to find bargains.

Sometime next week, there may be some really good deals available to investors. Is it wrong to profit on other people's fear? Wes Craven says, "No, it's not."

[DCBob]

26. good for you! I am not buying or selling...

just watching..

[DCBob]

27. Take it back.. no black friday... unemployment at 9.7%

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Payrolls-fall-in-January-rb-514835788.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

[Roland99]

30. Futures reversed quickly

DJIA was -61 earlier. Now:

S&P 500 1,061 -0.30 -0.03%
DOW 9,980 +1.00 0.01%
NASDAQ 1,732 +2.25 0.13%

[DCBob]

31. Yep... without this bit of "good" news I think it would have been ugly today.

It still might.

[Roland99]

41. What's interesting is jobs numbers never seemed to help the markets go up

at least for the last couple of years. The numbers were largely ignored and I've seen negative jobs numbers put the markets on a high in the futures. Cheering job losses (less labor costs?)

[TheWatcher]

60. Are you SURE you want to stick with that forecast?

On Edit: Well we might get the obligatory 3PM Stick Save so that everyone save the regulars that post here can go back to sleep and proclaim another dashing "Political Victory" as reality is once again successfully "papered over" for yet one more day.

Other than that.....

[Demeter]

67. Ding Ding Ding! We Have a Winner in Our "Guess the Market" Stakes

The PPT pulls out the stops and lo, the markets rise again!

[TheWatcher]

81. What I don't understand is why the people of this country want to live this way.

I can understand and have grown to accept that we are a lost, broken nation that puts all of our value on false paradigms, false reality, and managed perception, because, for the most part, we have been getting away with it for so long.

But what We The People need to wake up to is that as long as that is all there is, as long as we have nothing but Propaganda, Bubble Economics, and faked, cooked data to represent the structure and function of our Economy, a criminal system that forges ahead with it's own agenda, unabated, fearless about being held accountable by the Rule Of Law, there will be no real Recovery, no Real Change, and no real Future.

That is because NONE of the problems, NONE of the things that need to be fixed are being addressed.

They are being IGNORED, and papered over.

WE ARE NOT BEING REPRESENTED. Those we elected to SERVE our INTERESTS are not doing so.

They are IGNORING us.

This country CANNOT expect to live in an Illusion forever.

And for those who cheer this on, and continue to demonize and marginalize the people who post in this thread day after day, week after week, year after year, those of us who can see, and who know what the eventual outcome of all of this will likely be, I have a message for you, and the corrupt, morally bankrupt system you support.

WE ARE TIRED OF BEING IGNORED

WE ARE NOT GOING TO LET OUR COUNTRY DIE, BECAUSE YOU REFUSE TO LET IT LIVE

Enjoy Your Cake.

[Ghost Dog]

82. As Dollar, correspondingly, falls. n/t

[tclambert]

84. Wow. You called that one exactly right, practically to the minute.

Well done, sir, well done.

[4dsc]

32. Buy on the dips... nt

[tclambert]

44. "on the dips" or "from the dips"?

Nice to hear from a fellow dipsomaniac.

[UpInArms]

24. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.250 Change +0.334 (+0.43%)

Dollar Hits Five-Month High on Risk Aversion, Euro Spikes Up Against Swiss Franc

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2010-02-05-0735-Dollar_Hits_Five_Month_High_on.html

The US Dollar hit a five-month high as stocks tumbled across Asian exchanges to boost the safety-linked currency while the Euro spiked higher against the Franc with SNB intervention hinted as the culprit. The US jobs report is in focus going forward.

Key Overnight Developments

• US Dollar Soars on Risk Aversion as Asian Stocks Decline
• RBA Says Interest Rates to Rise to 4.5% by End of 2010
• Euro Spikes Higher Against Swiss Franc, SNB Action Hinted

Critical Levels



Euro tested below 1.3670 against the Dollar as safe-haven flows boosted the US currency (see below) but prices corrected higher to yield an effectively flat result ahead of the opening bell in Europe. The British Pound trended lower, losing as much as 0.4% against the greenback. We remain short EURUSD at 1.4881 and have also entered short GBPUSD at 1.5765.

Asia Session Highlights



Risk aversion dominated currency markets in overnight trading as stocks tumbled across Asian exchanges, pushing the safety-linked US Dollar to a five-month high. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional stock benchmark dropped the most in ten weeks following an aggressive selloff on Wall St after weekly US jobless claims figures proved disappointing, weighing on hopes of a speedy recovery in demand from the world’s largest consumer market.

Australia’s AiG Performance of Construction Index soared to 57.7 in January, showing the building sector not only expanded for the first time in three months but did so at the fastest pace since in two years. The reading mirrors yesterday’s jump in building approvals, but as with that data, today’s outcome was largely overlooked as being driven by last year’s stimulus measures. Such outcomes have failed to impress recently as trades become increasingly concerned with the recovery’s ability to sustain itself after the boost from government cash evaporates. Even the hawkish tone of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement failed to spark significant momentum. The RBA upgraded their forecasts for economic growth and inflation and even went so far as to say the higher figures assumed benchmark interest rates at 4.5% by the end of the year, essentially committing to 75 basis points of additional tightening over the next 9 months.

...more...



http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/what_fed_watches/2010-02-05-0208-A_Dollar_Rally_Based_on.html



The Economy and the Credit Market

It is difficult to forecast where the markets will be in a month or three months when volatility is as high as it is today. However, when measuring the quality of a trend; it is imperative to gauge the fundamentals that will carry the US dollar that far out to better ascertain the stability and duration of the incredible rally that the benchmark currency has carved out since the second half of January. While there are a few fundamental signposts traders can point to when they are looking to qualify the greenback’s current bout of strength (the relief in a positive turn for NFPs or perhaps the better than expected 4Q GDP among other things); the real driver for this move is underlying risk appetite. Any doubts to this view can be cleared up by a quick review of the incredible correlation between all the major asset classes (on both sides of the risk spectrum). The US dollar is both a safe haven currency and its extraordinarily low market rates made it an ideal source of funding for the carry buildup through 2009. Both of these roles work in the benchmark’s favor now that sentiment has faltered and the effort to unwind extended yield positions is underway. Yet, the current correction in the market and underlying risk appetite will not last as long as the preceding build. The economy and rates are return are improving, just at a tempered pace. A point of equilibrium will be found within the first quarter; and valuation from there will rest with rates and economic progress. On that front, the dollar sits on a relatively strong recovery but Fed hikes look to be far off on the horizon.



...more...

[54anickel]

28. The safety-linked currency????

BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

:rofl: :hi:

[Demeter]

29. Delusions are the Most Cherished Thoughts

and the last to be let go.

[skoalyman]

34. AH black friday postponed ,commencing

magic mushrooms and flying glitter pooping unicorns weeeeee

[Tansy_Gold]

73. YOMAK*

*You Owe Me A Keyboard

:spray:

[54anickel]

35. So true Demeter, so true. n/t

[Robbien]

36. Bank of Kazakhstan Files for Bankruptcy in U.S. (second largest bank in country)

Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- BTA Bank, the second-largest bank in Kazakhstan by assets, filed for bankruptcy protection to shield itself from U.S. creditors while it restructures about $11.6 billion in debt.

The Almaty-based bank listed both debt and assets of more than $1 billion in Chapter 15 documents filed today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan. Chapter 15 of the bankruptcy code is designed to block U.S. lawsuits against a foreign company with assets in the U.S. while it restructures in its home country. Most of BTA Bank’s U.S. assets are funds in accounts with New York banks.

“This petition is being filed at this stage as certain creditors have started to take action against the bank,” BTA Bank Chief Executive Officer Anvar Saidenov said in the court filing. Some BTA accounts with UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group AG in Switzerland have been frozen, according to the filing.

The state-owned National Wellbeing Fund Samruk-Kazyna took control of BTA Bank last February and the bank defaulted in April after credit markets froze and Kazakhstan’s real estate bubble burst. Alliance Bank, AO Astana Finance and BTA’s Temirbank have also defaulted, leaving Kazakh lenders seeking to reorganize $20 billion of debt.

BTA Bank is undergoing a restructuring in the “specialized financial court” in Kazakhstan, according to court filing in New York.

Having the U.S. courts recognize the Kazakhstan reorganization effort will “prevent the risk of parties taking action against the bank or seeking attachments over the bank’s assets that are located in the United States,” Saidenov said in the filing.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-02-05/bta-second-biggest-kazakh-bank-files-for-bankruptcy-in-u-s-.html

Appears foreign banks believe the vulture funds in the US are the biggest danger to their survival. Hard to get back on one's feet when Goldman/JPMorgan bloodsuckers are gunning for all and any assets.

[Dr.Phool]

38. Borat new Finance Minister?

[skoalyman]

39. Wonder how many banks get closed down today?

Dow Jones Industrial Average 9,950.72 10:17am ET Down 51.46 (0.51%)

[Demeter]

53. Find Out Tonight As Weekend Economists Goes to Karneval!

For those who cannot go to New Orleans for Mardi Gras, we will be hosting the biggest, raunchiest Carnival ever on line this weekend, since next weekend is reserved for Valentine's Day.

Our story will be The Phantom of the Opera, all incarnations, and any other carnivalesque cultural icons we can dig up. We all wear masks anyway, so everybody should feel right at home.

Tonight and all weekend, in the Editorial Forum. Be there!

[FarCenter]

40. Revisions in total nonfarm employment, January-December 2009,

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Table A.  Revisions in total nonfarm employment, January-December 2009,
  seasonally adjusted                                                    
                                                                         
  (In thousands)                                                         
  _______________________________________________________________________
                 |                     |                                 
                 |        Level        |      Over-the-month change      
                 |---------------------|---------------------------------
   Year and month|    As    |          |    As    |          |           
                 |previously|    As    |previously|    As    | Difference
                 |published |  revised |published |  revised |           
  _______________|__________|__________|__________|__________|___________
                 |          |          |          |          |           
       2009      |          |          |          |          |           
  January........| 134,333  |  133,549 |   -741   |  -779    |   -38     
  February.......| 133,652  |  132,823 |   -681   |  -726    |   -45     
  March..........| 133,000  |  132,070 |   -652   |  -753    |  -101     
  April..........| 132,481  |  131,488 |   -519   |  -582    |   -63     
  May............| 132,178  |  131,141 |   -303   |  -347    |   -44     
  June...........| 131,715  |  130,637 |   -463   |  -504    |   -41     
  July...........| 131,411  |  130,293 |   -304   |  -344    |   -40     
  August.........| 131,257  |  130,082 |   -154   |  -211    |   -57     
  September......| 131,118  |  129,857 |   -139   |  -225    |   -86     
  October........| 130,991  |  129,633 |   -127   |  -224    |   -97     
  November.......| 130,995  |  129,697 |      4   |    64    |    60     
  December (p)...| 130,910  |  129,547 |    -85   |  -150    |   -65     
  -----------------------------------------------------------------------
     p = preliminary.    

[Roland99]

42. 10:38am - DJIA falls below 10,000

Nasdaq 2,132 +7 +0.31%
Dow 9,991 -11 -0.11%
S&P 500 1,063 -0 -0.02%
GlobalDow 1,835 -25 -1.36%
Gold 1,055 -8 -0.73%
Oil 72.94 -0.20 -0.27%

[Roland99]

46. 11:44am - And it worsens

Dow 9,931 -71 -0.71%
Nasdaq 2,119 -7 -0.31%
S&P 500 1,056 -8 -0.71%
GlobalDow 1,824 -36 -1.92%
Gold 1,055 -8 -0.73%
Oil 71.32 -1.82 -2.49%

[harun]

47. I think our current job creation troubles are from both party's catering to

the existing Corporate Giants instead of catering to creation of new industry and new business.

There is a huge barrier to entry for completely new business and entrepreneur's because they can't afford to get Health Insurance for a bunch of new hires. If we had Universal Coverage it would take it out of the equation. New business and industry would start happening and create jobs. Instead you have the existing Giants cutting domestic employment, hiring more abroad and raising profits.

What do you guys/gals think?

[bread_and_roses]

48. I think the entire paradigm is gasping its death throes

our entire economy is predicated on endless growth - something the planet cannot sustain. Our policies and entire economic structure rewards cheap labor, disposable goods, and disregard of the welfare of the commons even extending to the very air and seas on which all life depends. "New business and entrepreneurs" can't save us. How long those throes might last I have no idea. Nor what comes after. The outlook ain't good, far as I can make out.

[Demeter]

52. The Economy Is Predicated on Siphoning Off Profits

Even if "profits" consist of gutting the company, the workforce and their families, and the nation.

Instead of a closed, sustainable recycling economy, we have sprung a huge leak. Fortunately, most of that leak is in the form of paper or electronic bits, and so can be devalued instantly, thereby short-circuiting the piracy.

Real capital: land, machinery, workforce; is harder to siphon off, and ownership becomes moot in a collapse that sees nationalization, squatters, and appropriations, legal or not. It's going to be the century of the quasi-legal entrepreneur. The economic elites will have to run for their lives, or at least keep their heads very low.

[Tansy_Gold]

66. The economic elites will sequester themselves

They'll build their castles and have their staff of servants, sycophants, serfs, and slaves. There will always be those too stupid or too frightened or too lazy to be independent, and they will be the elites' tools.

Unless, of course, the crash is sudden enough and hard enough that the elites don't have time to prepare for it. If that happens, they are sitting ducks.


And it could happen.



Tansy Gold, quasi-legal entrepreneur lo these many years already

[Demeter]

72. You Are More Underground, Tansy. THIS Is Quasi-Legal Entrepreneurship

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7648196

[Tansy_Gold]

74. That is funny! n/t

[Demeter]

75. I find it so sad. Here's another. Have People taken leave of their senses?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7648268

[TheWatcher]

79. Yes.

Just wait.

About two to three years from now, you're going to wish for these sane, orderly days. :(

[Dr.Phool]

56. A study a while back hit on that.

The US was the most entrepreneur UN-FRIENDLY of the developed countries in the world. Mainly because of the health insurance situation.

Not only is it too expensive for start-ups, but nobody with a family (or not) is going to leave a decent job, with health insurance, to strike out on their own. I can't blame them.

[Demeter]

54. Dimon receives $10m shares

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9371c68c-11c9-11df-b6e3-00144feab49a.html

Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s chief executive, on Thursday received shares worth about $10m after exercising 10-year-old stock options, just days before he was due to be granted a 2009 pay package estimated at $15m-$20m.

The level of 2009 pay for Mr Dimon, whose bank has outperformed many rivals in the aftermath of the financial crisis, could set a benchmark for other Wall Street banks at a time of heightened public scrutiny of bankers’ remuneration.

At Goldman Sachs, which has become a lightning rod for criticism of the industry, several executives said that they expected Lloyd Blankfein, chief executive, to receive a similar bonus of about $20m in stock and options.

Goldman’s board has not yet met to discuss the pay of Mr Blankfein and other top executives and the final figures have not been decided. Goldman declined to comment but has said that Mr Blankfein and others would be paid according to ­performance.

A pay package of about $20m would represent a significant decrease from the record $68m in cash, stock, options and pension Mr Blankfein received in 2007.

People close to the situation said that Mr Dimon had no intention of selling the 250,000-plus JPMorgan shares received on Thursday after exercising his options. The stock was worth about $9.6m at Thursday’s closing price.

Mr Dimon, who has sold no shares in the bank he has run since 2005 other than for tax purposes, had to exercise the options as they were due to expire in March.

JPMorgan and Goldman have emerged as winners from the crisis on the back of a rebound in capital markets that was fostered by governments’ huge injections of liquidity into the financial system.

Their shares have rallied in the past year while their profits surged. Goldman’s shares are up more than 70 per cent over the past 12 months, while JPMorgan’s stock has gained nearly 60 per cent.

Goldman’s share price and its record profits for 2009 have deepened the controversy surrounding the bank. Critics argue that its close ties to governments and widespread presence in capital markets enabled it to derive disproportionate benefits from the rescue of the banking sector. JPMorgan declined to comment but industry observers expect Mr Dimon to receive a package of $15m-$20m, all in stock, for 2009. Mr Dimon is likely to forgo a cash bonus for the second year running.

JPMorgan is expected to announce pay packages for top executives in the next few days.

[Demeter]

55. US DoJ dissatisfied with Google book deal

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4a30135e-11f9-11df-b6e3-00144feab49a.html

The US Department of Justice on Thursday said it was still not satisfied with an agreement on digitising books made between Google, authors and publishers, despite “substantial progress” on amendments to the settlement.

The DoJ’s influential opinion was filed in a New York federal court, where Judge Denny Chin will hold a hearing about the settlement on February 18.

Google’s plan to digitise the contents of several US libraries led to a copyright infringement case being brought by the Authors Guild and five major publishers in 2005. They reached a settlement in October 2008 and amended it in November in the face of continued objections from the DoJ and others, including Microsoft and Amazon, that Google could still gain a monopoly position in digital books.

The DoJ said on Thursday that copyright and antitrust issues remained.

“The amended settlement agreement suffers from the same core problem as the original agreement,” it added.

“It is an attempt to use the class action mechanism to implement forward-looking business arrangements that go far beyond the dispute before the court in this litigation.”

The department said it remained committed to working with the parties to help them come up with a solution where copyright holders could allow the digital use of their works by Google and others.

In September, it had proposed changes to the original agreement including making it less open-ended, providing additional protection to unknown rightsholders, addressing the concerns of foreign authors and publishers and providing a mechanism that gave Google’s competitors comparable access to the books concerned.

On Thursday, it said substantial progress had been made in eliminating certain open-ended provisions, protecting rightsholders of unclaimed work and reducing the number of foreign works covered by the agreement.

But the settlement could still leave Google as the only competitor in the digital marketplace with the rights to distribute and exploit “a vast array of works in multiple formats”, it said.

Consumer Watchdog, the consumer group, welcomed the DoJ’s objections to the deal.

“Google offered only minimal amendments to its original flawed deal and the key problems remain,” said John Simpson, a spokesman.

“The DoJ filing and the outpouring of other briefs from around the world opposing the amended settlement make it almost certain will reject the deal.”

[truedelphi]

86. Thank you for posting that.

I occassionally look for more reports on this, but the news that I saw on Thursday and Friday was all abou t the re-design of the Ketchup package!

Talk about news being product placement...

[opihimoimoi]

58. DOW AT 9,800 LEVEL....still receding at record pace...looks good for Dems as

this confirms Obamas contention of Bush Policies leading the Nation to this plight

[54anickel]

64. A-OOO-GA! A-OOO-GA! Dive Dive Dive. Didn't realize we were so close to breaking below 10K again.

Just haven't been paying much attention lately.

[Dr.Phool]

69. Hmmm, coming back.

It was way down earlier.

The fatal final 10 minutes start in 4..3..2..1....

[TalkingDog]

70. Checking in for the photo finish! n/t

[TalkingDog]

71. And it's political pork by a snout!!!!

[54anickel]

85. OMG! How cute! Love the enhanced color! n/t

[Demeter]

68. Honestly, They Aren't Even PRETENDING to Be "Natural" About It

when each exchange tracks the other so tightly on a jagged upswing...your PPT is on the job, saving the asses for another week.

Or It COULD be the great joy experienced in privateers' hearts now that the word is out that Obama has conceded defeat on healthcare deform....

I bet thoughts about the last 30 minutes turning into a rout had them in a cold sweat down in the Fed and Treasury.

[Roland99]

76. At the close - It's a miracle!!!!!!

Dow 10,012 +10 0.10%
Nasdaq 2,141 +16 0.74%
S&P 500 1,066 +3 0.29%
GlobalDow 1,836 -24 -1.30%
Gold 1,054 -10 -0.89%
Oil 71.76 -1.38 -1.89%

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

77. Life is good.

[TheWatcher]

78. And THERE You Have It!!!!!

Looks like The Sheep got their Stick Save they have been conditioned to expect.

Now all the true believers can go into the weekend assured that "The Recovery" is saved, The Unemployment Numbers are real, "The Football Team" has another decisive Political Victory, and the Working Class will have plenty of cake and chocolate rations to be numb, dumb, and hypnotized into drooling bliss in front of the Super Bowl this weekend.

And all of us "I want the Economy to Fail" Doomers are foiled again!!!!!!!

AMERICA WINS!!!! THE FALSE PARADIGM IS PRESERVED!!!!!

PERCEPTION OVER REALITY!!!!!

PRAISE MARTY MOOSE!!!!!!

Drink Up!

"The Recovery" Continues!!!!!!11111

Teh Unemplymnt Numb3rz iz teh awsum!!!!!!!!11111

:beer:

:crazy:

[DemReadingDU]

83. It's all good!

Not.