Attacks Could Sway Spanish Poll

[Zomby Woof]

http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=474777§ion=news

Attacks could sway Spanish poll
Fri 12 March, 2004 13:06

By Andrew Cawthorne

MADRID (Reuters) - Bombs killing nearly 200 people have injected a deadly new element into Spain's weekend election and could swing voters depending on whether the attacks were the work of Basque guerrillas or Muslim militants.

If the government's initial suspicion ETA was behind the blasts is right, that could benefit Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar's ruling Popular Party (PP) which has campaigned on its tough line against the separatist group, analysts said.

If, however, some indications al Qaeda could have been behind the attacks gain credence, many Spaniards might point a finger at the PP for stirring Muslim wrath by backing Washington and London in Iraq. (my emphasis added)

[fob]

1. AHA!! Now it makes sense. This is bush*co trial balloon

for how a "terror attack" affects an election. Make book on this, as the story says if this attack turns Spains electorate which was 90% AGAINST war on Iraq, toward bush*type neocons, there WILL be a bush*co brand terra attack here. This is the first test and they put it out within a week of the election. If the turn to the right isn't high enough look for a bush*co brand terra attack test #2 the day before or day of an election probably in Britain. Doesn't Blair come up for election this summer?

[mobuto]

3. Uh

Terrorist attacks before Spanish elections are nothing new, Charlie.

[fob]

12. Of this size and scope?

From groups outside the country?

I think the first reports of Basque Seperatists messed up the experiment a little. That's why the van with the koran and the other stuff with alqueda "fingerprints" were found.

Why is it that alqueda is able to conceive and pull off these highly coordinated, complex attacks (911-USA, 311-Spain) yet they are so careless with their tracks?

911 - Atta's passport and the rental car with maps and koran and luggage

311(or per EU rules 113) - Rental truck with all kinds of operational materiel

One can argue that they wanted to leave something to find because they were going to die and that was there way to "sign" their "message". If THAT'S the case then why be so vague? Why not leave a detailed message with the evidence and some good effyews to boot?

I suppose it's difficult to assign any reasoning for such senseless acts, but it just doesn't seem to jive.

[mobuto]

15. Well, nothing of this size and scope

has hit Europe since the Lockerbie bombing. So no, there really isn't any kind of parallel.

Why is it that alqueda is able to conceive and pull off these highly coordinated, complex attacks (911-USA, 311-Spain) yet they are so careless with their tracks?

Maybe because they want to take credit? What's the point of terrorism if nobody knows who's responsible?

Why not leave a detailed message with the evidence and some good effyews to boot?


Well, an Al Qaeda affiliated group DID take credit publicly. What more can you ask? The terrorists may still be alive. I doubt they want to be arrested. And signed affidavits left-behind would be just as suspicious for the tin-foil crowd.

[mobuto]

2. I disagree

Al Qaeda could help PP - people are usually defiant after terrorist attacks, not cowed.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. True. It's an attack against society either way

and people tend to come together.

[el_gato]

5. I disagree mobuto

people are usually cowed after "terror" attacks
just look at the u.s.

and you can't rule out that this is state sponsored terror

[mobuto]

7. Yeah we so were after 9/11

We were so intimidated by the 9/11 hijackers that we immediatly invaded Afghanistan.

Cowed my ass.

[Minstrel Boy]

8. I agree with you.

An attack tends to enhance the fortunes of the leader who appears most likely to give tat for tit, so to speak. Hence, for instance, Ariel Sharon's re-election, though his rule has in fact made Israelis less secure.

Those who say another attack will finish Bush may be in for an unfortunate shock.

[mobuto]

11. We agree on something?

Will wonders never cease?

[Minstrel Boy]

13. No; wonders will never cease.

But I won't speculate on the likelihood of ever again agreeing with you.

[Zomby Woof]

9. even so

I emphasized that last point to show the motive for the attacks, rather than the outcome for the election. I think it is most likely (by all means not the only plausible explanation) that the attacks were a result of Aznar's complicity with invading Iraq. I also think the Spanish government's haste to blame ETA is based on past experience and not a cover-up - it reminded me of America's haste in blaming Arabs for Oklahoma City (the 1993 WTC attack being the main impetus there).

As for the outcome for the elections, that is anybody's guess. Certainly, PP support eroded greatly in a nation where 90% of the citizens opposed helping the U.S. with Iraq. Though the Spanish people do like Americans in general, the "Yanqui-go-home" sentiment still plays in many circles too. I know, because I experienced it first-hand in my 3 years residing there.

[mobuto]

10. Oh sure

Iraqi insurgents have made a point of targeting coalition allies in Iraq, over Americans. It makes sense that Al Qaeda would do the same.

I think the Spanish Government may also be blaming ETA because its a simpler answer, one with more predictable consequences. I don't think they're covering anything up, but they may well be hoping that ETA's the cause.

[Just Me]

6. I will be interested in watching how this plays out.

The pre-war protests in Spain were every bit as large as those in other countries. I find it difficult to predict in which direction the majority of Spaniards will be galvanized. Who knows, could be that this situation will lead to even greater diviseness leading to civil strife.

[Layman]

14. Cui Bono?

Latin: to whose advantage?

[Moderator]

16. Locking and consolidating Spain aftermath threads

to this discussion thread. Please continue here.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x417817