STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday November 30

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday November 30, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 27, 2009

Dow... 10,309.92 -154.48 (-1.50%)
Nasdaq... 2,138.44 -37.61 (-1.73%)
S&P 500... 1,091.49 -19.14 (-1.72%)
Gold future... 1,176 -12.60 (-1.06%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.19 -0.07 (-2.26%)
30-Year Bond 4.20 -0.03 (-0.71%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Gold and Newton’s First Law of Motion
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

Since the start of the decade gold has been in a strong secular bull market in which it has had only one negative year (2001) while the S&P 500 has had four. Gold’s strong performance has produced a cumulative return of 311.54% for an annualized return of 15.18% per annum this decade. In stark contrast, the S&P 500 has been in a secular bear market in which its cumulative return has been a negative 24.52% for a negative 2.77% annualized return. While gold has had periods of volatility (risk), what the above numbers indicate is that gold has had a superior investment profile relative to the stock market in which it has had consistent positive returns with less risk associated with those returns. According to Newton’s first law of motion, an object in motion tends to stay in motion unless acted upon by another force, all bearish forces have proven too weak to buck gold’s secular bull market, and that trend will likely continue for years to come.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

The folks at Financial Sense took the long weekend off.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Report

09:45 Chicago PMI Nov
Briefing.com 52.5
Consensus 53.0
Prior 54.2

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

42. U.S. Nov. Chicago PMI 56.1% vs. 54.2%

sorry for the lateness of the post, just got more than 10 seconds to rub together

:hi:

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises to near $77 as Dubai debt fears ease

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia – Oil prices rebounded to near $77 a barrel Monday in Asia as panic about the global fallout from Dubai's debt problems abated.
.....

The United Arab Emirates central bank took steps to avert any run on banks by panicked depositors, pledging Sunday to offer additional money to foreign and domestic banks in the emirates amid concerns that UAE banks have some of the biggest exposure to Dubai World's debts.

The promise of cheap funds signaled to global investors that the country's federal government — backed by oil money — will do what it can to limit the fallout from the indebted Dubai emirate.
.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for December delivery added 1.13 cents to $1.9375 a gallon but natural gas shed 3.8 cents to $5.154 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[DemReadingDU]

18. Dubai World’s Debt Not Guaranteed by Government

11/30/09 Dubai World’s Debt Not Guaranteed by Government

Dubai’s government said it hasn’t guaranteed the debt of Dubai World, the state-controlled holding company struggling with $59 billion in liabilities, and that creditors must help it restructure.

“The company received financing based on its project schedule, not a government guarantee,” Abdulrahman Al Saleh, director general of the emirate’s Department of Finance, said in an interview with Dubai TV, when asked whether the government was backing the debt. “Lenders should bear part of the responsibility.”

Dubai’s government said Nov. 25 that Dubai World would seek a standstill agreement with creditors and an extension of loan maturities until at least May 30, 2010. The announcement led to the biggest declines in Asian shares in three months last week and Europe’s worst rout since April. Investors were concerned the proposal risks triggering the biggest sovereign default since Argentina in 2001.

Dubai shares tumbled and Abu Dhabi’s stock index today fell the most in at least eight years on the first trading day since the announcement.

Nakheel PJSC, Dubai World’s property unit whose $3.52 billion Islamic bond is due Dec. 14, asked the Nasdaq Dubai stock market today to suspend its securities “until it is in a position to fully inform the market.”

more...
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFxSdvgvqhps&pos=1

[ozymandius]

4. Dubai crisis, holiday sales will dominate trading

While markets around the world continue to assess the fallout from Dubai's worrisome debt problems, investors trying to get a handle on the global economy will also factor in some encouraging U.S. retail sales over the Thanksgiving weekend. The question for many is whether they should focus on the possibility of another spreading credit crisis, or signs that consumer spending in this country may indeed be stabilizing.
.....

Retailers' reports that Thanksgiving weekend sales were respectable may be a pleasant distraction for the stock market. Store owners said shopper traffic was up from a year ago, and held steady through the weekend after a big surge Friday. However, consumers were focusing on the basics, as expected.
.....

Analysts have been questioning whether the stock market has gotten ahead of the actual economic recovery, especially since some of its recent advance has been due to the dollar's weakness. Many investors were theorizing that the falling dollar would help guarantee that U.S. interest rates would remain stable, making it easier for companies to borrow. Moreover, when the dollar is down, companies that do business with other countries find it easier to sell their goods and services overseas, and their profits rise when those sales are translated into dollars.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091130/ap_on_bi_ge/us_wall_street_week_ahead

[ozymandius]

5. Shoppers spent less over Black Friday weekend

SAN FRANCISCO/CHICAGO (Reuters) – Consumers spent significantly less per person at the start of the holiday season this weekend, dimming hopes for a retail comeback that would help propel the economy early in 2010.

The lackluster spending could pressure retail stocks on Monday as some investors were looking for a stronger showing compared with a year earlier, when consumers were being hammered by the recession and credit crunch.
.....

While shoppers turned out in force as early as U.S. Thanksgiving Day on Thursday, many said they had zeroed in on highly discounted items, would buy only what they needed and would walk out of a store if they did not find a good deal.
.....

A clearer picture of retail performance will be seen when many U.S. retailers report November sales on Thursday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091130/ts_nm/us_holidaysales

[Hugin]

7. "... a year earlier, when consumers were being hammered by the recession and credit crunch."

Is it over? :shrug:

How come I didn't get the memo?

:eyes:

[ozymandius]

9. Really.

It is over? I missed that one too.

[Roland99]

19. Anecdotal tales of Black Friday from Las Vegas

I can't speak as to the very early morning crowds (my gf and I avoided them) but about 11am when we did finally get out and about, she was surprised at one particular part of town that is usually wall-to-wall at intersections and parking lots totally filled. We were 2nd in line when we pulled up to a left-turn light. Looked like a regular day. The mall wasn't that crowded (we didn't buy anything other than a couple of Wetzel's Pretzels)

The outlet malls, however...that was packed. But, that's closer to the tourist area of The Strip and downtown Las Vegas.

She said, after talking to her mom and a friend who'd both been out early that morning, that the crowds weren't as bad as years past.

[Tansy_Gold]

23. Sales at local art show were also down

I kept a pretty close eye on traffic and buying at this week-end's show. High-end items were definitely not selling, and purchases of non-functional, decorative art were also way down.

Shoppers also seemed more informed than at other shows I've done, in the sense that they knew what was really "original" and "hand-made" as opposed to merely assembled from purchased components. They were definitely more interested in the original and hand-made if it offered a good value for their money and less interested in the "you just went out and bought a bunch of XXXX and slapped it together to make a QQQQQQ. Anybody can do that!" or the "It couldn't have taken you more than 20 minutes and 25 cents to make that, and you expect me to fork over 30 bucks? I don't fucking think so!"


Tansy Gold, who makes some of those 25-cent, 20-minute things but sells 'em for a lot less than 30 bucks.

[Demeter]

43. The Younger Kid Says Her Store Was Disappointed

and they were sending people home because the level of traffic didn't justify the level of staffing. She works at the mall--our only one in town.

[ozymandius]

8. Thanksgiving Sales Attract More Shoppers, Less Average Spending

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- More consumers went shopping over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, yet spent less than last year as they hunted for bargains on toys and electronics, according to the National Retail Federation.

Spending at stores and on Web sites from Nov. 26 to Nov. 29 rose 0.5 percent to an estimated $41.2 billion from $41 billion a year earlier, the Washington-based trade group said yesterday, citing a survey conducted by polling firm BIGresearch. The higher turnout and lower average spending were in line with expectations, the NRF said. The group is sticking to a forecast for a 1 percent drop in spending this holiday season.
.....

Thirteen percent more shoppers visited at least one department store this year, the NRF said. Internet spending on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, rose 11 percent from a year ago, to $595 million, ComScore Inc., a Reston, Virginia- based research firm, said yesterday in a statement.
.....

Holiday sales make up a third or more of retailers’ annual profit. The International Council of Shopping Centers, another industry trade group, predicted sales at stores open at least a year will advance 1 percent in November and December after a year-earlier 5.8 percent decline, the worst in 40 years.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aHvhM17LEIRU

[ozymandius]

6. Companies ask workers to take on more

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Like many U.S. employers, Tish and Snooky Bellomo are asking their workers to take on additional duties, rather than hiring new employees, at their New York cosmetic and hair accessory company.

Earlier this year the two got rid of a consultant and, rather than rehiring, turned to their 13 employees at Manic Panic, which has sold punk rock inspired fashions and hair dyes since 1977, and asked them to pick up the slack.

The two are not alone in foisting more responsibilities on employees of their cluttered packaging facility floor in a gritty neighborhood in Queens in New York City. Government data earlier this month showed U.S. employee productivity rose at its fastest pace in six years in the third quarter of this year.

The 9.5 percent jump at an annual rate in the amount of output per employee came at a time when many American employers are slashing jobs in an effort to cut costs. The U.S. unemployment rate climbed in October to 10.2 percent, a 26-1/2 year high.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091129/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_productivity

[rfranklin]

17. They got rid of a "consultant"...what they really mean is...

a part time employee with no benefits.

[ozymandius]

10. Taxing Wall Street Today Wins Support for Keynes Idea of 1936

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- John Maynard Keynes proposed a tax on financial transactions in the middle of the Great Depression, and another economist, James Tobin, revived the idea in the 1970s as a way to counter currency market speculation. Neither effort gained much acceptance. Now, a growing number of economists and politicians argue that it’s time for a levy on trading stocks, bonds, currencies and derivatives.

U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said on Nov. 7 that a transaction tax might compensate for the billions of dollars that the public has spent on bank bailouts. Government officials in France, Germany and Austria have voiced their backing. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner answered Brown a day later, saying the tax was not something the U.S. would support. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, on the other hand, says the idea has “substantial currency” among congressional Democrats.

Even if political consensus on a transaction tax is lacking -- and Brown and Pelosi both say it would need to be implemented everywhere or not at all -- the idea is attracting supporters worldwide.
.....

Trades that created big risks to the financial system, with the fewest benefits to the economy, might be taxed out of existence, Sheng says. That’s because the tax would boost the cost of complex financial products, such as collateralized-debt obligations, that have several layers of transactions -- and slim profit margins, he says.

$76 Billion

The funds raised would be substantial: With stock and currency markets ringing up about $900 trillion in turnover each year and derivatives another $625 trillion, a tax of 0.005 percent might raise $76 billion annually, Sheng estimates.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aZxk6z7R4V5I&pos=10

---

Hell yeah! This needs doing. But with people like Geithner making noise - this will not get done for obvious reasons.

[Festivito]

11. Debt: 11/25/2009 12,009,454,244,833.79 (DOWN 6,866,689,632.92) (Wed)

(Debt down a small amount after being up and down some for several days after on large day it went up. Almost back down to 12T$. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,611,881,854,893.50 + 4,397,572,389,940.29
UP 525,986,426.45 + DOWN 7,392,676,059.37

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,037,918 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,986.93.
A family of three owes $116,960.8. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 4,937,618,567.72.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,785,507,568.59.
The average for the last 33 days would be 3,441,370,516.90.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 39 reports in 56 days of FY2010 averaging 2.55B$ per report, 1.78B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,152 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/25/2009 12,009,454,244,833.79 BHO (UP 1,382,577,195,920.71 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,099,625,241,322.00 ------------* * BHO
Endof10 +0,649,343,090,759.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/04/2009 -000,084,777,046.07 ----
11/05/2009 +008,148,647,528.82 ------------*********
11/06/2009 -000,072,128,565.19 ----
11/09/2009 +000,009,587,108.80 ------------****** Mon
11/10/2009 +000,298,454,946.90 ------------********
11/12/2009 +005,635,979,422.58 ------------*********
11/13/2009 -000,263,776,071.91 ---
11/16/2009 +038,287,630,031.50 ------------********** Mon
11/17/2009 +000,263,245,360.02 ------------********
11/18/2009 -000,023,369,864.09 ----
11/19/2009 -021,100,228,230.36 -
11/20/2009 -000,090,793,748.95 ----
11/23/2009 -000,049,087,609.27 ---- Mon
11/24/2009 +000,322,336,139.24 ------------********
11/25/2009 +000,525,986,426.45 ------------********

31,807,705,828.47 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4161939&mesg_id=4162062

[Festivito]

40. Debt: 11/27/2009 12,008,650,382,616.48 (DOWN 803,862,217.31) (Fri)

(Overall debt down a small amount in a mix of public debt up while government debt drops, after being up and down some for several days after on large day it went up. Almost back down to 12T$ although slowing its approach to that number. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,615,594,035,286.33 + 4,393,056,347,330.15
UP 3,712,180,392.83 + DOWN 4,516,042,610.14

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,055,198 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,982.14.
A family of three owes $116,946.42. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 4,873,685,039.48.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,574,035,695.62.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,458,744,221.56.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 40 reports in 58 days of FY2010 averaging 2.47B$ per report, 1.70B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,150 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/27/2009 12,008,650,382,616.48 BHO (UP 1,381,773,333,703.40 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,098,821,379,104.70 ------------* * BHO
Endof10 +0,621,893,161,607.17 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/05/2009 +008,148,647,528.82 ------------*********
11/06/2009 -000,072,128,565.19 ----
11/09/2009 +000,009,587,108.80 ------------****** Mon
11/10/2009 +000,298,454,946.90 ------------********
11/12/2009 +005,635,979,422.58 ------------*********
11/13/2009 -000,263,776,071.91 ---
11/16/2009 +038,287,630,031.50 ------------********** Mon
11/17/2009 +000,263,245,360.02 ------------********
11/18/2009 -000,023,369,864.09 ----
11/19/2009 -021,100,228,230.36 -
11/20/2009 -000,090,793,748.95 ----
11/23/2009 -000,049,087,609.27 ---- Mon
11/24/2009 +000,322,336,139.24 ------------********
11/25/2009 +000,525,986,426.45 ------------********
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********

35,604,663,267.37 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4165325&mesg_id=4165346

[ozymandius]

12. Holiday shoppers shunned credit cards: survey

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Cash was king for consumers who shopped over the Thanksgiving weekend, according to survey results released on Sunday, and that factor could have cost retailers additional sales.

Only 26 percent of people who shopped over the weekend said they used credit cards for their purchases, according to a poll conducted for Reuters by America's Research Group.
.....

Consumers shunning credit cards is a bad sign for retailers, since people who buy gifts with a credit card tend to spend anywhere from 20 to 40 percent more on the gift, Beemer said.

But a greater percentage of people who said they planned to shop over the Black Friday weekend did so than usual. Only 25.7 percent of the people who had previously said they planned to shop decided not to make purchases, the survey said. That number was 37 percent in 2008 and 38 percent in 2007.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE5AT05N20091130

[ozymandius]

13. Buyers Take a Pass on Some Failed Banks

.....
Some (banks) are in such bad shape that potential buyers won't touch them at any price, even if the government agrees to eat losses on the failed bank's bad loans. In addition to their depleted capital, many seized banks operate in areas with sluggish growth prospects, are puny and are loaded with expensive deposits gathered through brokers that are likely to leave when the acquiring bank reins in interest rates, some bankers complain.

Philip Sherringham, chief executive of People's United, said it is getting harder to find the dream deal that bank officials hoped to hatch from a wrecked bank. The supply of ideal targets—sensible deposit-gatherers that fatally "overextended" their loan portfolio—is slim and the competition fierce, he said.
.....

But of the 124 banks to fail so far this year, many of those put up for sale by regulators as part of the seizure process "are of very poor quality," said Norm Skalicky, chief executive of Stearns Financial Services Inc. "It's not as if you can walk in and you are in business."
.....

Sluggish interest in doomed banks could push the FDIC's losses higher at a time when the agency's fund to shield depositors is in negative territory for just the second time in its history.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704498804574558341229897758.html?mod=djemalertNEWS

---

There is talk of bundling these shitty banks together in order to lure buyers. This is ridiculous. Do sellers believe that buyers are so unsophisticated that any one of them has never heard of a "pig in a poke"?

[Po_d Mainiac]

14. Like big piles of turds are more attractive than little ones..roflmao n/t

[FarCenter]

22. No banks failed last Friday -- I guess the FDIC is out of money for now?

[Demeter]

44. Operating on the American Theory: Sucker Born Every Minute

[ozymandius]

15. ~6:30 futures numbers

S&P 500 -1.30 1088.20 11/30 6:36am

NASDAQ -2.50 1756.75 11/30 6:25am

Dow Jones -20.00 10272.00 11/30 6:30am

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/index.html

[ozymandius]

16. Fed rage boils over on Capitol Hill

.....
In an opinion piece to be published in Sunday's Washington Post, Bernanke blasted two moves to limit the Fed - a House measure to dig into the central bank's books and a Senate bill that would strip the Fed of its regulatory power.

Fed watchers say they expect that Bernanke will be confirmed for a second term as chairman. But he may get the fewest favorable votes on record - and end up at the helm of a vastly changed Federal Reserve.
.....

While many credit Bernanke for saving the economy from falling into the next Great Depression, some in Congress blame the Fed - and Bernanke - for having failed to restrain the housing bubble. Others say he has gone too far in the financial system bailouts.

"We're in a very populist era and that populism is manifesting itself in a dislike and distrust in large institutions," said Washington policy analyst Brian Gardner of investment firm Keefe Bruyette & Woods. "That means the Fed is one of those targets."

http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/23/news/economy/Bernanke_confirmation/index.htm

[Joe Chi Minh]

26. No. The phenomenon is not so-called 'populism'. Nor is it the fact that human beings, the general

public, have responded with wholly appropriate fear, outrage and disgust, to what can only be construed as, at best, the gargantuan, cataclysmic failures of people purporting to be top professionals.

Rather, what Washington policy analyst Brian Gardner should be addressing in a perfectly straight-forward way, i.e. without reference to implied aberrant sociological behaviour on the part of the public, on the contrary, are the origins of the cataclysm, the state of its unfolding, the future economic prospects, and what might be done to optimise the chances of national and personal survival; or any single one, or any permutation of the aforesaid. POPULISM is a word used by the kind of elitist nerds who got the world into precisely this crisis.

In this kind of context, characters who dare to speak of the general reaction to what has transpired as 'populist' should be put up against a wall and shot. Those French revolutionaries knew a thing or two.

[Joe Chi Minh]

27. No. The phenomenon is not so-called 'populism'. Nor is it the fact that human beings, the general

public, have responded with wholly appropriate fear, outrage and disgust, to what can only be construed as, at best, the gargantuan, cataclysmic failures of people purporting to be top professionals.

Rather, what Washington policy analyst Brian Gardner should be addressing in a perfectly straight-forward way, i.e. without reference to implied aberrant sociological behaviour on the part of the public, on the contrary, are the origins of the cataclysm, the state of its unfolding, the future economic prospects, and what might be done to optimise the chances of national and personal survival; or any single one, or any permutation of the aforesaid. POPULISM is a word used by the kind of elitist nerds who got the world into precisely this crisis.

In this kind of context, characters who dare to speak of the general reaction to what has transpired as 'populist' should be put up against a wall and shot. Those French revolutionaries knew a thing or two.

[kickysnana]

20. Me, Dad, Best Buy, Sears, HSBC, Dubai and the UAE

My 84 year old Dad was told his ticker was on its last legs this summer and unrepairable. He was extremely fit and active but he is really slowing down now. His 35 year old JC Penny Console TV gave up the ghost late this summer and he is watching a 15 hear old 15 inch TV from their 33 year old motor home. He is hard of hearing and really needs closed captioning for news and he has some vision problems so he really could use a big screen.

Since he could not afford the big TV he needed and he was been there for me my entire life I figured if I could get a deferred interest credit agreement I would spring for one for him for Christmas.

I tried Best Buy on Friday but they said I didn't qualify for a high enough credit limit their program through Best Buy HSBC Credit(headquartered in Dubai). Sears started their Cyber Monday sales on Sunday so I tried there where I have a high limit credit card I seldom use and always pay off monthly. The TV with extended service and delivery was $100 more at Sears. In between I was following Dubai and the fallout. That credit card is also HSBC and early on Sunday I was not offered the deferral. I chatted with three different CS reps online and they gave me three different and silly reasons why it would not go through but when I read on DU that the UAE had said they would stand behind Dubai I waited a few hours went back to Sears.com and got the TV.

[Tansy_Gold]

21. Good for you!

But it sucks, don't it, that your ability to give your dad a meaningful gift (which was probably made in China) is predicated on our country's addiction to foreign oil?

Wouldn't it be nice if we could make our own TVs, control our energy consumption, and take care of our own needs without having to watch for the exact moment when one oil-greedy sheikh decides to bail out another oil-greedy sheikh?

Happy Holidays!



Tansy Gold

[mullard12ax7]

32. Dubai trucks their human waste out of the city, no septic or sewer systems

There's a convoy of trucks out of the city every night carrying human excrement for miles. Sometimes the truckers get tired of it and just dump their loads in the desert. It's the perfect repuke city, drowning in its own filth and lies and expecting slave laborers to hide it for them while the environment is destroyed as well. It's too bad the credit purchase through them was your only option.

[tclambert]

34. How does the human waste get into the trucks?

Tell me there's not an army of poor people with shovels involved.

[h9socialist]

24. There is no market solution to America's economic problems . . .

. . . because the market system IS the problem!!!!!

[Hugin]

25. Yikes! What just happened on the NASDAQ?

Dow 10,281.05 -28.87 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 1,088.02 -3.47 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,124.13 -14.31 (-0.67%) <-- took quite the dip at ~11:40 ET.

[Ghost Dog]

28. Wall St slips on concerns about holiday spending

Mon Nov 30, 2009 12:06pm EST NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks declined moderately on Monday as weak data on holiday retail sales prompted questions about the consumer's ability to spend.

The S&P Retail index .RLX fell 1.3 percent after the National Retail Federation said that total Black Friday holiday spending was down from last year, suggesting that consumers were still reluctant to spend.

...

There were some bright spots. Online retailers' shares rose after analytics firm comScore said that online spending was the highest it had ever been on Black Friday, with Cyber Monday spending expected to be even stronger.

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) shares hit an all-time high of $135.25 in intraday trading on Nasdaq on Monday after it said its Kindle electronic book reader posted its best sales yet in the month of November.

...

By midday on Monday, major U.S. department stores' stocks were taking a beating, with Macy's .M.N down 6 percent at $15.95 and Saks Inc (SKS.N) down 6.6 percent at $6.10, both in New York Stock Exchange trading.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 32.72 points, or 0.32 percent, to 10,277.20. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX slid 3.56 points, or 0.33 percent, to 1,087.93. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC lost 13.89 points, or 0.65 percent, to 2,124.55.

Following last week's shocking request from Dubai for a standstill agreement on billions of dollars in debt, the Dubai government said on Monday it will not take responsibility for the debts of the Dubai World conglomerate. The Dubai govermment's statement squashed creditors' hopes that the emirate would guarantee its liabilities.

Concerns about a debt default in Dubai prompted a sell-off in Friday's abbreviated U.S. stock trading session. But on Monday, investors said the reaction to Dubai's troubles had been overdone, and that tremors would be minor in U.S. equities markets.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/usMktRpt/idUSN3045289720091130?sp=true

[nc4bo]

33. Seems the bloom made it's way back to the rose.

:puke:

Sure didn't take long to recover. :applause: Yeehaw!

[tclambert]

35. It's one ob dem rolly coaster kinda days.

[DoBotherMe]

29. K&R n/t

[Ghost Dog]

30. India’s economy accelerates

NEW DELHI — India’s economy grew at its fastest rate in 18 months in the quarter through September, smashing expectations and adding pressure to bring forward an interest rate rise and cut stimulus spending as inflation mounts.

Asia’s third-largest economy grew 7.9 per cent in the past quarter from a year earlier, far above forecasts of 6.3 per cent, but growth was expected to slow this quarter when the impact of a weak monsoon would be seen on crops.

The expansion was driven by government spending, manufacturing, services, and a better-than-forecast farming output, sending bond yields and swap rates higher as investors bet on a rise in rates and the finance minister said growth could hit seven per cent in the fiscal year ending in March 2010.

...

Manufacturing output grew 9.2 per cent in the quarter as consumers bought more cars and other goods.

...

The yield on the 10-year bond rose three basis points, swap rates moved up by five to seven basis points and the rupee rose. The Sensex share index extended gains to more than two per cent, though still lagged the nearly three per cent gain in the MSCI Index of Asia ex-Japan shares.

Farming in focus

India’s annual wholesale price inflation was a benign 1.34 per cent in October, but economists have said it could rise to as much as eight per cent by the end of the fiscal year — above the central bank’s perceived comfort zone around five per cent.

Food prices jumped 15.6 per cent in the year to mid-November, although supply-side inflation is largely beyond the purview of monetary policy.

High food prices are sensitive in a country that remains mostly rural and poor, complicating government efforts to implement pro-market financial sector reforms.

Yesterday, opposition party workers burned buses and shut down businesses in the eastern city of Kolkata to enforce a 12-hour strike to protest rising food prices.

Agriculture, which accounts for roughly 17 per cent of India’s economy, remains a wild card after farm output grew 0.9 per cent during the quarter, beating expectations for a decline.

...

On the plus side, long-running declines in exports and credit growth are poised to reverse in coming months as the global economy shows signs of recovery.

Nomura lifted its growth forecast for the Indian economy in 2009/10 to seven per cent from six per cent following yesterday’s data.

A top government official played down inflation concerns.

“I don’t believe there are serious worries on inflation except food prices. Food prices are a matter of concern, but I don’t think conventional monetary policy will take care of that problem,” said Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of India’s Planning Commission.

He also reiterated the government stance that stimulus would remain in place.

“Personally, I don’t think the second quarter numbers suggest any change in the (fiscal) policy in the current year,” he said.

In the 2008/09 fiscal year, India’s economy grew 6.7 per cent, its weakest in six years and well below rates of nine per cent or more in the previous three years.

The central bank cut its key lending rate by 425 basis points between October 2008 and April. Late last month it began scaling back its monetary stimulus by removing some of the liquidity support measures implemented to help India weather the global downturn.

Economists polled by Reuters poll at the time were divided over when the central bank would begin to raise interest rates, but all saw rates rising by the end of April. The central bank is expected to hold monetary policy review meetings in January and April, but can adjust rates at any time. Consumers’ share of spending in the Indian economy totalled 53.5 per cent in July-September, little changed from a year earlier, while the government’s share rose to 10.6 per cent from 8.7 per cent on the back of stimulus spending, yesterday’s data showed.

/... http://www.timesofoman.com/innercat.asp?detail=32013&rand=

[Demeter]

45. And for No Discernable, Good Reason, Either

[Ghost Dog]

31. Copenhagen summit: It's money that matters in the backroom talks

The most powerful lobbyists stalking the corridors of the Copenhagen climate summit will not be the noisy environmentalists or even the global charities who will press politicians for a strong deal that avoids the worst of global warming.

Ecology and morals count in the public arena, but as the negotiations progress and world leaders arrive to take the stage, money will dominate the backroom talks. It is likely to be the deal maker or breaker. Copenhagen may lead over the next 20 years to the largest transfer of money in history from the global north to the south, dwarfing the amount that developing countries now receive in aid.

Industrialists, financiers, bankers, business groups and carbon traders know there is much more in play at the Danish capital than a concern for the health of the planet. They all have a stake in the decisions made and see climate change as the driver of a global energy revolution and the chance to trade in technologies that could shift the world economy.

Those money men will be pressing for a deal that sets up new markets, accelerates investment in clean technologies and gives a clear signal to investors that the low-carbon future lies ahead.

At a conservative estimate, the burgeoning climate change industry expects Copenhagen to open the door to more than $10tn of investment in low carbon technologies by 2030. That, says the International Energy Agency, is what is needed to limit carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere to 450 parts per million, and give a decent chance of avoiding dangerous climate change. The summit could also lead to new carbon markets which will eventually be worth trillions of dollars a year.

/continues... http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/29/financial-negotiations-money-copenhagen-summit

---

Carbon trading could be worth twice that of oil in next decade

The carbon market could become double the size of the vast oil market, according to the new breed of City players who trade greenhouse gas emissions through the EU's emissions trading scheme.

The ETS market may see $3tn (£1.8tn) worth of transactions a year in the next decade or two, according to Andrew Ager, head of emissions trading at Bache Commodities in London, with it even being used as a hedge against falling equities or rising inflation. "It is still a relatively new industry with annual trades of around €300bn every year. But this could grow to around $3tn compared to the $1.5tn market there is for oil," says Ager, who used to be a foreign currencies trader.

The speed of that growth will depend on whether the Copenhagen summit gives a go-ahead for a low-carbon economy, but Ager says whatever happens schemes such as the ETS will expand around the globe.

Last week Australia gave its strongest sign yet that it would establish its own trading market, while the US is moving towards a similar scheme in a bid to find market-based ways to accelerate the transition to a lower carbon economy.

Many political leaders, especially in industrialised countries, are enthusiastic: carbon markets hold the promise of cost-efficient emission cuts without the need for taxpayer funding. But their enthusiasm to place carbon markets at the heart of the Copenhagen treaty is matched by growing criticism of the concept, and not just from environmentalists opposed to free market solutions.

/continues... http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/29/carbon-trading-market-copenhagen-summit

---

Note: On the European Union's Emission Trading System (EU ETS) see:
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/emission/implementation_en.htm
http://www.euractiv.com/en/climate-change/eu-emissions-trading-scheme/article-133629

(It is a lot to get one's head around... (:scratches head:)... Guess that's one reason why "unregulated 'free' markets" have so many (dumb) champions...)

[TalkingDog]

36. Hersey's get "nostalgic"

Nostalgia? Nostalgic for what? High Unemployment? No Money? Masses of uneducated, cheap workers?

[DemReadingDU]

38. I can remember when Hershey's was 1oz candy bar

and I had to share half with my sister, probably around 1955.
Does anyone make 1 oz candy bars anymore?

[Tansy_Gold]

41. ARe they actually going to be made in Hershey, or in a

Hershey's plant in Mexico?

Just askin'.



Tansy Gold, who doesn't even like chocolate all that much. . . . .

[tclambert]

37. Krugman thinks creating jobs is a good idea. Calls for a WPA-like program.

The Jobs Imperative

. . . the federal government could provide jobs by ... providing jobs. It’s time for at least a small-scale version of the New Deal’s Works Progress Administration, one that would offer relatively low-paying (but much better than nothing) public-service employment. There would be accusations that the government was creating make-work jobs, but the W.P.A. left many solid achievements in its wake. And the key point is that direct public employment can create a lot of jobs at relatively low cost. In a proposal to be released today, the Economic Policy Institute, a progressive think tank, argues that spending $40 billion a year for three years on public-service employment would create a million jobs, which sounds about right.

more at: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/30/opinion/30krugman.html
______________________

Not really sure if this constitutes news. Seems like a certain Tansy Gold has been calling for this for more than a year. Creating jobs should trigger secondary job creation in support jobs and service jobs for people supplying, equipping, and feeding the workers employed by the primary jobs. Then there are spinoff jobs if the primary jobs create or improve infrastructure that stimulates further economic activity.

I say the goal of job creation should be to make the unemployment rate so low employers have to compete for workers by offering superior wages and benefits. I am not adverse to employers getting into bidding wars for good employees.

[ozymandius]

39. Senator wants to use gambling laws to regulate Wall Street

From DailyKos diarist gjohnsit:

Sen. Maria Cantwell wants to use state gambling laws to regulate parts of Wall Street, saying someone needs to police financial markets where "casino capitalism" involving highly speculative trades she likens to sophisticated betting continue unabated and threaten to create yet another financial crisis.
"She's going for their jugular," Michael Greenberger, a University of Maryland law professor, said of the effort by Cantwell, a Washington state Democrat. Greenberger was a top official at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission during the Clinton administration who unsuccessfully fought to regulate such trading.
Cantwell wants to repeal parts of a 2000 law that barred states from using their gambling laws to help rein in the nearly $600 trillion derivatives market.

.....

Cantwell's proposal, besides making good sense, is based on an idea that predates even the New Deal.

In the early 1900s, gaming establishments known as "bucket shops" allowed people to place wagers on whether a stock would go up or down without actually buying the stock. States banned such betting after the economic crash and the panic of 1907.
In 2000, Congress attached the Commodity Futures Modernization Act to a must-pass, 11,000-page omnibus spending package that provided funding for a handful of Cabinet departments and other federal agencies. The bill essentially deregulated the commodities markets and pre-empted the states from applying their "bucket shop" or other gambling laws.

What a fabulous idea. Like other great ideas - I suspect that the same tired old arguments about "freedom" and whatnot will be thrown up as barricades against it.

More at link above

[Demeter]

46. In That Case, Bring Back the Blue Laws

I'd like to get all Pilgrim on the markets.