Convoys move Iraqi oil over border (Instead of Pipeline)

[RamboLiberal]

http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=20950

The coalition is relying on massive truck convoys in northern Iraq to move crude and refined oil back and forth across the Turkish border.

The coalition’s goal is to pump 2.8 million and 3 million barrels of crude a day from northern Iraqi oil fields, said Maj. Chuck Svelan of the Mosul-based Task Force Olympia, which is overseeing the oil transport.

The coalition relies on the convoys because constant attacks to the oil pipelines south of the Turkish border make that option unreliable, Svelan said.

“A pipeline is a fixed flow, and if it is cut the flow stops,” he said. “Take out a truck and the flow keeps going.”

One of the biggest problems task force soldiers faced was “it is next to impossible to guard” miles and miles of pipeline, Svelan said. “So the task force is using convoys.”

[bemildred]

1. I wonder how much oil the trucks use? nt

[Sagan]

2. No way trucks can carry an appreciable amount of oil

Certainly not compared to a pipeline. And then there is the fuel cost of the trucks themselves, not to mention security.

[daleo]

3. That's a lot of convoys

Some rough calculations:

3 million barrels of oil per day
times 45 gallons per barrel (guess)
= 135 million gallons per day
times about 10 pounds per gallon (using water density)
= 1350 million pounds
Each truck carries about 100K pounds (standard tanker load)
= 13500 truck loads per day

That would take a lot of trucks, soldiers and/or Halliburton employees and would create a lot of targets.

Something is wrong with either their math or mine. Maybe they mean 3 million barrels per year.

[htuttle]

4. That's roughly what I got. This is the Stupidest Idea Ever.

Please check my math -- this is so stupid, it is hard to believe, even for the Bushes.

I went at this in terms of liquid volume, instead of weight.

Your standard, huge fuel tanker truck holds 10,000 gallons. That's about 238 barrels.

Moving three million barrels would require 12,605 tanker trucks, all stretched out in a line. Given that the length of a semi truck is about 65 feet long, add in a truck length in front and behind for safety, and you have a line of tanker trucks 417 MILES long.

That's about how far it is from the oil fields to the terminal, so when the beginning of the convoy arrives at the terminal, the end of the convoy will just be leaving the oil fields.

Regarding how much fuel this will take: Most semi trucks under load get about 7 mpg. With the number of trucks (12,605), that comes to about 810,324 gallons of diesel fuel.

According to the Petroluem Institute's charts, they get about 9.2 gallons of diesel fuel out of a barrel of oil. So they need the diesel fuel from 90,036 barrels of oil (after refining), which comes to 21,428,568 gallons of raw crude.

That is going to mean that of those 12,605 tanker trucks hauling raw crude, about 2,143 of them will be hauling the crude needed to refine to the diesel fuel the convoy will need...to haul the crude.

That's about a 17% loss due to transportation. Assuming none of the trucks get blown up...

And they plan on doing this every DAY? And then they have to drive the truck BACK the same day...

BTW, hiring 12,605 fuel truck drivers? Wonder what THAT will cost...

(on edit...figured it out)
Average pay for truck drivers working for the US in Iraq is about $350/day. Paying 12,605 truck drivers will cost at least $4,411,750 in pay to the drivers alone each day (and with 'cost plus' contracting, you should probably double that to figure what the US will be charged).

(On edit: I just can't stop doing math tonight...)
$4,411,750 in daily pay for the drivers will take the equivalent of the sale of 126,050 barrels of oil (at $35/barrel). That's about 29,999,900 gallons, or about another 3,000 of those 10,000 gallon tankers of crude will need to be sold just to pay for the drivers of the trucks every day.

Add that to the 2,143 truckloads needed to refine the diesel to fuel the trucks, and you're now looking at a 40% loss rate for costs just to transport the crude.

And finally, WHY is the 'coalition' taking Iraq's oil in the first place?

[Zhade]

5. "And finally, WHY is the 'coalition' taking Iraq's oil in the first?"

Why, we're AMERICA, you know! We get to keep the spoils of illegal invasion and occupation for ourselves - and all it cost us was thousands and thousands of deaths! Such a deal!

</sarcasm>

[muriel_volestrangler]

6. most of the figures are in the article

"On an average day, up to 1,000 trucks — each tanker carries between 5,000 and 9,000 gallons of fuel"

It's 42 gallons per barrel, so this is a maximum of 9,000,000 / 42 = 214,286 barrels per day.

Yet they say "Exact data on the agency’s progress is classified, but production is well ahead of January’s target of 2 million barrels a day", so the trucks hardly make a dent in this supposed production - either nearly all of it goes out through some other pipelines, or the claim of more than 2 million barrels a day is BS.

[htuttle]

7. I don't think they'll get near 2 million barrels per day this way

Looking over what I worked out, the 40% loss scales down to 1,000 trucks (or one truck, for that matter) over the same distance. The crude -> diesel ratio, gas mileage, and driver pay factors remain the same.

Hauling crude oil in trucks that run on diesel is just mighty inefficient, whether there are 1 or 10,000.

Of course, the contractors get their cut either way.

[daleo]

9. I am glad everyone's math reinforced how unlikely this is

Nothing like a little real-world check. There must be a certain amount of desperation beneath the surface, to even print such preposterous stuff. The oil-stealing part of the invasion might be proving to be extremely difficult. If so, much of the motivation (though perhaps not all) for the invasion falls flat as a 'Texas souffle' (someone's nickname for Bush).

[DoYouEverWonder]

8. BushCo hasn't been able to get the oil

out of Northern Iraq since we took over. They are pumping millions of gallons a day back into reservoirs. They must be getting very desperate to get this oil to market if they are using such a inefficient and vulnerable means of transport. There goes the profit margin. Oh that's right, they'll just past the cost on to us and make even bigger profits.

[shanti]

10. well now...

they're in a big hurry! chimp doesn't have much time left!