STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday November 20

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday November 20, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 19, 2009

Dow... 10,332.44 -93.87 (-0.90%)
Nasdaq... 2,156.82 -36.32 (-1.66%)
S&P 500... 1,094.90 -14.90 (-1.34%)
Gold future... 1,142 +1.00 (+0.09%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.33 -0.03 (-0.83%)
30-Year Bond 4.28 -0.02 (-0.49%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Internal Problems
BY MARTIN GOLDBERG

As the market averages stage yet another rally, market internals continue to degrade. It is quite possible that the advance of the major averages can continue into the favorable year end seasonality in a similar fashion as was the trend in last bull market. Another short and shallow correction lasting at most two to three weeks is also a real possibility for the major averages in the short term. This would continue a trend that has been fairly consistent since August. However, there appears to be a new phenomenon in the market that warrants watching since if it continues, it is probably indicating something more meaningful than the typical short shallow correction of less than 10%.

What are some of these internals? First, it is curious that the small cap stocks are severely underperforming the more capitalized market averages. Consider the short term chart of the Russell 2000 index. What you see in October is an attempt for the small cap average to best the $62/share level reached in August. It tried for 5 days before it gave up, whereupon it made a low on November 1st that was lower than the low it made on October 1st. Over the last ten trading days, as the Dow went to new highs, the Russell made a lower high. You can see that the volume bars (corresponding to the Russell 2000 ETF trading) for down days are greater than the up volume days. This suggests distribution of the smaller cap stocks.

-see chart-

Of the US major averages, it is the most stable Dow Jones Industrial which is now leading the others. History suggests that strong market advances tend to occur with more dynamic leadership. Another similar trend which is probably not a healthy one is the trend toward the most liquid of the technology stocks. It appears that traders have no limits as to what they will pay for an Apple or a Google. This was what happened during the October 2007 top. Remember Las Vegas Sands?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

3. Oil hovers below $78 as traders eye US dollar

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered below $78 a barrel Friday in Asia as investors eyed a volatile U.S. dollar and mixed economic data.
.....

Oil has seesawed between $76 a barrel and $82 for about a month as the dollar — whose fall this year has help boost crude prices from $32 in December — stabilized somewhat during the last few weeks. Investors often buy commodities such as oil as a hedge against a weaker dollar and inflation.
.....

On Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department said employers are still shedding jobs, and the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a surge in foreclosures. However, some analysts expect Asian economic growth, led by China, to help offset a sluggish recovery in developed countries.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil was steady at $2.00 a gallon. Gasoline for December delivery held at $1.98 a gallon. Natural gas for December delivery was steady at $4.34 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Foreclosures hitting more people with good credit

WASHINGTON – The foreclosure crisis likely will persist well into next year as high unemployment pushes more people out of homes, pulls down housing prices and raises concerns about the broader economic recovery.

The latest evidence was a report Thursday that a rising proportion of fixed-rate home loans made to people with good credit are sinking into foreclosure. That's a shift from last year, when riskier subprime loans drove the housing crisis.

The report from the Mortgage Bankers Association also found that 14 percent of homeowners with a mortgage were either behind on payments or in foreclosure at the end of September. It was a record-high figure for the ninth straight quarter.
.....

After three years of plunging prices, the housing market started to rebound this summer. That lifted hopes for the overall economy. But analysts say there are too many foreclosed homes that have yet to be dumped on the market and expect further price declines.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091119/ap_on_bi_ge/us_foreclosures

[ozymandius]

5. To lower interest rates, Citi customers must spend

NEW YORK – For Citibank credit card holders, there is one way to escape the bank's rate hikes currently under way: Meet a monthly spending requirement.

Those who meet the spending minimum — in some cases $750 a month — will be able to get a rebate on their total interest charges for that month. The rebate could cover some or all of the interest rate hike. Customers also need to make payments on time to qualify for the rebate.

Without giving specifics, Citi said the monthly spending requirements and interest rate hikes will vary depending on the cardholder's credit history.

About half of its customers will be able to erase 50 percent to 100 percent of their rate increases through the rebates. Citi said its rebates will be based on interest charges for an entire balance, not just monthly charges.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091120/ap_on_bi_ge/us_citi_spending_required

---

Don't spend and pay more. Or spend and pay more, but a little less, on a higher balance. It sounds like a scam either way.

[ozymandius]

6. Geithner, under fire, defends AIG bailout

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Thursday defended the costly bailout of insurer AIG and urged swift regulatory reform to safeguard the economy from the failure of big financial firms.

Before Congress' Joint Economic Committee, Geithner faced fierce criticism of his role in the rescue of American International Group Inc in 2008, when he was president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank.
.....

Geithner said because the United States had no authority to seize and wind down complex financial firms that were in danger of collapse, it had no choice but to step in when the failure of AIG appeared imminent in September 2008.

A jump in the unemployment rate to above 10 percent has sparked complaints that Washington was quick to rescue Wall Street but ignored the plight of those who lost their jobs in a recession blamed partly on reckless lending.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091120/bs_nm/us_financial_regulation_geithner

---

Geithner still regards law as something other people need to think about. I recall William Black speaking of how Geithner, as Paulson before him, ignores (and thus violating) the Prompt Corrective Action Law. The law dates from 1991 and requires a federal takeover (a.k.a. nationalization) when one of these systemically important institutions gets into trouble.

[Tansy_Gold]

18. "Geithner, under indictment, defends AIG bailout."

That's what I WANT to read. . . . . . .


Tansy Gold, who has lots of wants. . . ..

[Po_d Mainiac]

20. Tansy, don't you mean...Geithner loses appeal of corruption...

:donut:

[tclambert]

22. Corruption loses its appeal?

That'll never happen. As long as there's a lobbyist with a buck to bribe with . . .

[Tansy_Gold]

25. I want Geithner to lose his appeal to Obama.

Along with Summers and Rubin and Bernanke. They all need to go straight to jail, without passing Go and without collecting $200.

I'd like to see one of them on a Sunday talk show or a 60 Minutes interview and have someone actually ask them, "Do you ever think, for even one minute out of the day, how your life and the life of your friends and cronies compares to the life ordinary people live? Do you ever wonder if you've really earned the obscene wealth you enjoy or if maybe you came by it, shall we say, inappropriately? Does this ever even cross your mind?"

I'd bet we get a deer in the headlights GWBush expression on their little faces.

THEY DON'T CARE.



Tansy Gold, does

[AnneD]

28. Morning Marketeers.......

:donut: and lurkers. Speaking of caring-we have been having a food drive in our school for some of our needier families. I came in this week with a large check to help them buy canned goods for the food boxes. She was excited because they were short of the canned goods. She was going to ask the teachers to donate a turkey or ham during the week. Well, sadly, the donations from the staff have dropped greatly and she stopped by to see if I could donate a little more to pick up the shortfall. Thankfully we could, so with Hubby's blessings we upped the amount of our donation. But it is so sad that we have so many that need food and folks that use to donate now rely on donations to get by. And this is in an area that is doing better than the rest of the nation. It is hard for me to come to work and face these kids knowing that I am eating better than some of them. Maybe Timmy should sit in my office at around 10:00 and watch the kids roll in with their complaints of tummy aches and head aches and listlessness-all from a lack of food. Try looking them in the eye and tell them that for their future, that tarp money was needed more for the banks than the food banks.

AnneD, whom the market had been kind to of late, but has not forgotten those with less.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Garam_Masala]

35. +1000 eom

[ozymandius]

7. European Shares on the Rise; Asia Falls

LONDON -- European stocks rose Friday despite a drop in Asia as investors recouped some of the previous day's hefty losses ahead of a key speech from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet.

The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was up 0.2%, while Germany's DAX rose 0.4%. The CAC-40 in France gained 0.2% around 5:45 a.m. EST.
.....

Earlier Friday, Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average lost 0.5% to 9,497.68 even though the Bank of Japan revised up its forecasts for the world's second largest economy. Sony(SNE Quote) slid 2.4% as investors remained unconvinced by CEO Howard Stringer's plans to turnaround the loss-making electronics giant. Sony is headed for a back-to-back billion dollar loss in the fiscal year ending March 2010.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.8%, and Australia's benchmark fell 1.3%. South Korea's Kospi was flat, while China's Shanghai index shed 0.4%.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10629556/1/european-shares-on-the-rise-asia-falls.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN

[ozymandius]

8. Foreclosures will keep rising through 2010, report says

.....
One in seven U.S. home loans was past due or in foreclosure as of Sept. 30, putting that quarterly delinquency measure at its highest level since 1972, when the Mortgage Bankers Assn. began reporting it. At the beginning of this year, 1 in 10 loans was past due or in foreclosure.

The continued surge in delinquencies suggests that a recovery in the housing market could be stalled by the worsening job picture as well as by further fallout from the easy-money lending that prevailed during the boom years.
.....

Prime loans -- those made to the borrowers with the best credit -- continued to make up a growing percentage of troubled mortgages. Such loans accounted for nearly 33% of new foreclosures last quarter, compared with 21% a year earlier, when high-risk subprime loans made during the housing boom were the main reason for default.

In California, 4.62% of fixed-rate prime mortgages, considered the safest home loans of all, were in foreclosure or 90 days delinquent.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mortgage-defaults20-2009nov20,0,1052221.story

[ozymandius]

9. Big shareholders ask Goldman to cut bonuses-WSJ

Nov 20 (Reuters) - Some of Goldman Sachs Group Inc's (GS.N) largest shareholders have asked the company to cut the size of its bonus pool and pass along more of its profits to investors, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the situation.

Although the shareholders are not pushing for a huge cut, they feel that Goldman should better reward shareholders for this year's rebound, the paper said.
.....

The shareholders are also concerned about a change in the company's financial statements that increased the firm's total headcount by adding temporary employees and consultants, the paper said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/BROKER/idUSBNG41117220091120

---

Why do they think GS would give up a penny in bonus money?

[mbperrin]

32. Yeah, the noive!

Investors expecting a return on the money THEY put in! Wow! Who do they think they ARE?!


:) Gotta love it when even greedy capitalists are offended by the kleptocrats....

[ozymandius]

10. China Banks Fill Syndicated Loan Void as RBS Retreats

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Foster’s Group Ltd., Australia’s biggest brewer, never borrowed from China until this year, when Bank of China Ltd. helped arrange $500 million in loans to refinance debt.

Chinese lenders are “injecting large amounts of liquidity,” said Peter Kopanidis, group treasurer at Melbourne- based Foster’s. The combination of the world’s fastest-growing economy and “a very different deposit base” is helping Bank of China “contribute more at a time when some banks may be capital-constrained,” he said.
.....

In the U.S., about $111 billion of leveraged loans, or those made to speculative grade borrowers, have been made in 2009, down from $804.9 billion in the comparable period of 2007.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange in Beijing is encouraging lenders to make yuan-denominated loans overseas to cut exposure to consumers amid concern that too much cash may cause the nation’s stock and real estate markets to overheat.
.....

Offering credit to companies outside China is also a way for the nation to invest its $2.27 trillion of reserves without buying Treasuries. China’s holdings of U.S. government debt swelled to $798.9 billion in September from less than $100 billion in 2002, according to the Treasury Department.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a4iYO7Ud35LA&pos=13

[zogofzorkon]

13. Gotta love "injecting large amounts of liquidity"

into a brewery.

[ozymandius]

15. Har!

Good one. :thumbsup:

[DemReadingDU]

19. Good one!

and welcome to the Stock Market Watch!
:hi:

[tclambert]

23. Excellent catch.

We don't want no watered down Foster's. The Aussies would riot.

[ozymandius]

11. More on China’s Faux GDP Data

Back in October, I laughed off the latest China GDP data as utterly fabricated.

As it turns out, I was not the only one. China expert Gordon G. Chang (author of The Coming Collapse of China) is more than skeptical — he has the data to question much of China’s growth miracle.

Spoiler alert: Its been wildly exaggerated:

“Beijing, in the 1990s, ordered factories to churn out goods in periods of low demand, and there are indications that officials are resorting to this tactic now. While optimistic analysts point to astounding car sales–up 70.5% in July, 94.7% in August and 83.6% in September–there are reports that central government officials have ordered state enterprises to buy fleets of vehicles and that these businesses are storing them in parking lots across the country. These stories are as yet unconfirmed, but they are consistent with statistics showing that gasoline sales have been flat this year–up only 6.4% in August, for instance, and sliding since then from all indications. So here’s another question: At a time when economic activity is supposedly rising at a quick pace, how can large increases in passenger vehicle sales not be accompanied by corresponding surges in fuel usage?

a bit more here...

[Festivito]

12. Debt: 11/18/2009 12,030,202,701,513.91 (DOWN 9,116,405,974.89) (Wed)

(Debt down some. I wish those treasurydirect.gov programmers would fix that site. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,632,273,641,916.39 + 4,397,929,059,597.52
DOWN 23,369,864.09 + DOWN 9,093,036,110.80

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,977,438 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,061.96.
A family of three owes $117,185.88. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 3,542,615,550.61.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,716,005,255.47.
The average for the last 33 days would be 2,469,095,686.79.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 34 reports in 49 days of FY2010 averaging 3.54B$ per report, 2.46B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,159 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/18/2009 12,030,202,701,513.91 BHO (UP 1,403,325,652,600.83 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,120,373,698,002.20 ------------* * * BHO
Endof10 +0,896,661,219,812.32 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/28/2009 +000,798,039,832.64 ------------********
10/29/2009 -019,769,093,363.09 -
10/30/2009 +031,206,306,633.43 ------------**********
11/02/2009 +091,997,621,963.98 ------------********** Mon
11/03/2009 +000,189,596,548.58 ------------********
11/04/2009 -000,084,777,046.07 ----
11/05/2009 +008,148,647,528.82 ------------*********
11/06/2009 -000,072,128,565.19 ----
11/09/2009 +000,009,587,108.80 ------------****** Mon
11/10/2009 +000,298,454,946.90 ------------********
11/12/2009 +005,635,979,422.58 ------------*********
11/13/2009 -000,263,776,071.91 ---
11/16/2009 +038,287,630,031.50 ------------********** Mon
11/17/2009 +000,263,245,360.02 ------------********
11/18/2009 -000,023,369,864.09 ----

156,621,964,466.90 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4152724&mesg_id=4152786

[Festivito]

38. Debt: 11/19/2009 12,011,787,382,266.61 (DOWN 18,415,319,247.30) (Thu)

(Debt down some more. Up large one day, then down some for a couple of days. Okay. We'll see. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,611,173,413,686.03 + 4,400,613,968,580.58
DOWN 21,100,228,230.36 + UP 2,684,908,983.06

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,986,078 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,001.07.
A family of three owes $117,003.22. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 2,572,868,543.37.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,972,532,549.92.
The average for the last 31 days would be 1,908,902,467.66.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 35 reports in 50 days of FY2010 averaging 2.91B$ per report, 2.04B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,158 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/19/2009 12,011,787,382,266.61 BHO (UP 1,384,910,333,353.53 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,101,958,378,754.90 ------------* * BHO
Endof10 +0,744,296,164,910.77 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/29/2009 -019,769,093,363.09 -
10/30/2009 +031,206,306,633.43 ------------**********
11/02/2009 +091,997,621,963.98 ------------********** Mon
11/03/2009 +000,189,596,548.58 ------------********
11/04/2009 -000,084,777,046.07 ----
11/05/2009 +008,148,647,528.82 ------------*********
11/06/2009 -000,072,128,565.19 ----
11/09/2009 +000,009,587,108.80 ------------****** Mon
11/10/2009 +000,298,454,946.90 ------------********
11/12/2009 +005,635,979,422.58 ------------*********
11/13/2009 -000,263,776,071.91 ---
11/16/2009 +038,287,630,031.50 ------------********** Mon
11/17/2009 +000,263,245,360.02 ------------********
11/18/2009 -000,023,369,864.09 ----
11/19/2009 -021,100,228,230.36 -

134,723,696,403.90 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4154508&mesg_id=4154531

[ozymandius]

14. Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for potential 'global collapse'

HT to Ritholtz's blog for this story.

.....
In a report entitled "Worst-case debt scenario", the bank's asset team said state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh set of problems.

Overall debt is still far too high in almost all rich economies as a share of GDP (350pc in the US), whether public or private. It must be reduced by the hard slog of "deleveraging", for years.
......

Under the French bank's "Bear Case" scenario (the gloomiest of three possible outcomes), the dollar would slide further and global equities would retest the March lows. Property prices would tumble again. Oil would fall back to $50 in 2010.

Governments have already shot their fiscal bolts. Even without fresh spending, public debt would explode within two years to 105pc of GDP in the UK, 125pc in the US and the eurozone, and 270pc in Japan. Worldwide state debt would reach $45 trillion, up two-and-a-half times in a decade.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6599281/Societe-Generale-tells-clients-how-to-prepare-for-global-collapse.html

---

As a reminder - this is a worst case scenario. Since writer Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is channeling his inner Roubini with this high profile piece on Société Générale, we will probably hear from Dr. Roubini about this viewpoint very soon.

[ozymandius]

16. The jobless rate-interest rate conundrum

Just about everywhere you look these days in the financial media, when the topic of discussion turns to the plunging U.S. dollar, you'll hear someone saying something like, "Unless the Fed raises interest rates, the dollar's got nowhere to go but down".

And then someone invariably says, "But the central bank can't raise interest rates. Not with the unemployment rate at over ten percent!"

What's a central banker to do?

A look at history with the help of the chart below sheds some light on the current jobless rate-interest rate conundrum and, as you might expect, things don't look good for Fed chief Ben Bernanke if he's at all concerned about the value of the nation's currency.

-see chart-

From the time that unemployment peaked during the summer of 2003 at 6.3 percent (a jobless rate that appears "quaint" as compared to the reality on the ground today), it was a full year before the first "baby-step" was taken in 2004.
.....

Of course, years later, this is one of the most widely heard criticisms of Greenspan's final years at the Fed as even shoe shine boys know now, in the wake of the bursting housing bubble, that the former Fed chairman left interest rates "too low for too long".
.....

If this is the model that Ben Bernanke follows for the current recession, look for interest rates to start to rise no sooner than mid-2011 and don't be surprised if the Mexican peso looks pretty good relative to the U.S. dollar at that time.

http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2009/11/jobless-rate-interest-rate-conundrum.html

[ozymandius]

17. Have a great Friday, all.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
Time again for me to check out.

:hi:

[tclambert]

21. A market for fat?

Cross-linked from another DU entry: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4154542

Peruvian police: Gang killed people for their fat

Source: Associated Press

LIMA, Peru - Police say a gang in the Peruvian jungle has been killing people and draining fat from the corpses to sell on the black market for use in cosmetics, although medical experts say they doubt a major market for fat exists.

Three suspects confessed to killing five people, but the gang may have been involved in dozens more, said Col. Jorge Mejia, chief of Peru's anti-kidnapping police. He said one suspect claimed the gang wasn't the only one doing such killings.

Mejia said two of the suspects were arrested carrying bottles of liquid human fat and told police it was worth $60,000 a gallon. The fat was sold to intermediaries in Peru's capital, Lima, and police suspect it was then sold to cosmetic companies in Europe, Mejia said Thursday, but he could not confirm any sales.

_____________________________________

Was the suspect named Tyler Durden?

[Roland99]

26. Assisted by a Jaime Gumm?

I wonder if the cosmetic companies realize where some of their ingredients originate.

[AnneD]

27. Fried green tomatoes anyone??????

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH.

[UpInArms]

24. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 75.827 Change +0.534 (+0.69%)

Daily Sound Bites

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/daily_sound_bites/2009-11-20-1030-Daily_Sound_Bites.html



...more...

Reality Setting in as Growth, Interest Rate Forecasts Stall Carry and Stock Rallies

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/carry_trade_basket/2009-11-20-0506-Reality_Setting_in_as_Growth_.html



• Reality Setting in as Growth, Interest Rate Forecasts Stall Carry and Stock Rallies
• Are the Global Financial Markets Heading into Another Asset Bubble?
• The Lines of Funding Currency and Carry Currency Begin to Blur as Speculation Levels Off

How promising is the outlook for growth and expected returns? This is a critical question that has perhaps been glossed over, or in some instances utterly ignored, over the past six months. However, now that the world’s economy seems to be hitting its stride in the burgeoning recovery; investors are seeing the tempo that the markets can be expected to run more clearly. And, after eight months of solid rally for even the most suspect of assets, it seems investors are ready to take a hard look at current values and measure them up to where conditions will be three, six, twelve months down the road. We can already see a sense of hesitation across the major asset classes. The Carry Trade and US dollar are ideal gauges of risk appetite for currencies – if not the financial markets as a whole. The carry trade index has carved out another swing high, but the peak for November is notably lower than the 14-month high set back in October. Forced into a position of greater fundamental sensitive to underlying sentiment, the US dollar could signal a reversal (or revival) of capital market’s bull trend far earlier than the less responsive carry basket. On a trade-weighted basis, the US dollar is hovering just off 15-month lows; but the foundation for its bearish trend is just as close and a reversal can easily feed an oversold scenario. The same general conditions can be applied to stocks and commodities like gold. While the Dow has edge higher these past few weeks, volume has grown progressively weaker – denoting a lack of conviction. Gold is perhaps the most onerous of the speculative assets. Considered a high-return vehicle, inflation hedge and safe haven alternative; this commodity is just as prone to a correction in sentiment as any other security while inflation is certainly far off and volatility of this level offers little stability.

From the fundamental side of things, the argument for moderation and caution continue to grow. While the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) upgraded its growth forecasts for 2010 recently, the resultant outlook does not reflect the boom years of bygone years; rather, it reflects uneven and fragile expansion that is still heavily backed by government stimulus. The removal of this ‘safety net’ is a necessity to working down record deficits and encouraging stability as well as long-term growth. However, it is also the backstop to any financial crises that may develop going forward and the primary source of cheap lending. Both of these conditions are integral to feeding optimism. Policy official around the world have already voiced their concern over the side effects of nearly unlimited levels of cheap cash. The chorus out of China for an quickly building asset bubble has shown what can happen at the extremes of the current policy stance. In fact, a range of Asian economies have voiced their concern that the Federal Reserve’s policy of keeping its benchmark lending rate at its extreme low is actually feeding the building problem. San Francisco Fed President Yellen addressed this concern in a recent speech; but she said it was not clear whether the central bank should focus on global concerns like this when determining policy. Realistically, the problem lies not with the policy authority’s policy but in the market situation that it exists in. Policy makers have warned for months that truly promoting stability means correcting large imbalances in the global economy. Among the largest inequities are the dollar’s use as a reserve; the yuan’s managed exchange rate; and the abundance of leverage.



...more...

[FarCenter]

29. New [Commercial] Vehicle Registrations Down 38.7 Percent in Third Quarter

http://www.truckinginfo.com/news/news-detail.asp?news_id=68531&news_category_id=6

A reflection of continued softness in the commercial market and downward pressure on demand, new registrations for commercial vehicles during the third quarter were down 38.7 percent from the 2008 period, according to the September issue of Polk Commercial Vehicle Solutions' Commercial Vehicle Market Intelligence Report. As a result, Polk has reduced its Index of U.S. Commercial Vehicle Activity for the 2009 calendar year by 9,000 units, with the forecast that 2009 will end at about 323,000 units.

<SNIP>

New vehicle registrations during the third quarter were at 77,189 units, a 4.6 percent drop from the second quarter of 2009. In September, new vehicle registrations slipped 42.1 percent from September 2008. With the exception of Class 4 and Class 6 vehicles, the decline in new registrations in September was greater in each segment than the average decline for the calendar year through September. September marked the lowest level of monthly new registrations since Nov. 1991, when it was at 22,072 units.

<SNIP>

On a positive note, used commercial vehicle registrations for the third quarter were up 46.5 percent from 2008, totaling 166,600 units. Used truck activity accounted for 68 percent of commercial vehicle transactions in the third quarter, compared to 49 percent in the year-ago period. "The market for used commercial equipment, as indicated by the level of used vehicle transactions remains near historical highs," the report said.

[Ghost Dog]

30. Wall Street tax must be international: Pelosi

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Any tax imposed on financial transactions would have to take effect internationally to keep Wall Street jobs and related business from moving overseas, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Thursday.

"It would have to be an international rule, not just a U.S. rule," Pelosi said at a news conference. "We couldn't do it alone, we'd have to do it as an international initiative."

Several House Democrats have proposed a Wall Street tax to pay for job-creating legislation they plan to pass in December. The tax, which could raise $150 billion per year, would tap into widespread public outrage at Wall Street in the wake of the financial crisis.

...

Pelosi and other Democratic leaders have emphasized that the proposal is merely one of many ideas in play.

"It hasn't been developed to a high priority, but it has substantial currency in our caucus," Pelosi said.

Britain urged other governments earlier this month to consider a bank tax as a way to fund future bailouts, and France and Germany have also called for a bank tax. The International Monetary Fund is studying the idea.

But it has little support in the Obama administration.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Thursday that he has "not seen a version of that tax that I think would be appropriate for our country."

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/wtUSInvestingNews/idUSTRE5AI3ZV20091119?sp=true

[DoBotherMe]

31. K&R n/t

[DU GrovelBot]

33. ## PLEASE DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##

This week is our fourth quarter 2009 fund drive. Democratic Underground is
a completely independent website. We depend on donations from our members
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[Demeter]

34. Well, It's Friday, Again and We Need a Distraction aka Theme

for the Weekend Economists thread. How about Abbott and Costello? Did we do them before?

Would you believe I've been doing this for over a year now? I really need to get a life.

So, An anniversary celebration for WEE...hmmmm......cake and ice cream and free ponies!

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

36. Hmm... what's the relationship between the market and the Obama Adm?

I'll take a crack at it. Drive it through the roof then get out before the markets are finally subject to regulation. Something like that.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

37. or...

hold the Obama Adm hostage and keep him in-line, or else.