STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday November 19

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday November 19, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 18, 2009

Dow... 10,426.31 -11.11 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq... 2,193.14 -10.64 (-0.48%)
S&P 500... 1,109.80 -0.37 (-0.03%)
Gold future... 1,141 +1.90 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.36 +0.04 (+1.17%)
30-Year Bond 4.30 +0.04 (+0.96%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

The Gold Trifecta?
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

Since the July lows we have witnessed gold rocket northward first through the $1,000 per ounce mark and then the $1,100 per ounce mark, hitting an all-time high of $1,152.85 today. The move in gold off the July lows led to a more than 25% gain in the yellow metal with silver putting in an even more impressive move of more than a 42% rise. Clearly precious metals have been on a tear lately and there are perhaps several reasons for this that are all contributing to strength in precious metals.

The path of gold in 2008 was quite interesting as at times it moved inversely with the USD as is its normal relationship, and at other times it moved in step with the USD, contrary to the norm. Last year was truly a volatile year with many market participants never witnessing the market extremes such as we saw; the S&P 500 crashing, gold soaring and the entire financial system was on the brink of collapsing. Given the dramatic swings in the financial markets last year, it appears that the price of gold was being driven by different elements at different times. In the beginning of 2008 gold was benefiting from rising inflation and a weak USD while near the end of the year we saw the inflation rate via the Consumer Price Index (CPI) collapse and the USD rally strongly; and yet gold assaulted the $1,000 mark as it headed into this year. What gives?
.....

For example, since the 1970s the common theme for gold prices is to peak near the end of a recession and then fall thereafter as investor’s shun the perceived safety of gold for stocks as investor spirits about the stock market and economy revive. There was an anomaly after the end of the 2001 recession as gold continued to rise, and we appear to be witnessing yet another deviation from the post 1970 script as gold has continued to remain strong despite a monstrous stock market rally. What was characteristic in 2001 that likely led to strong gold prices even after the recession is the same today, which is a HIGHLY accommodative Fed via a very low interest rate environment.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Po_d Mainiac]

26. What gives?

common theme for gold prices is to peak near the end of a recession and then fall thereafter as investor’s shun the perceived safety of gold for stocks

Yup..The depression ain't over, and the markets are are not perceived as a safe haven due to the current manipulation and insane P/E's

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 11/14
Briefing.com 510K
Consensus 504K
Prior 502K

08:30 Continuing Claims 11/13
Briefing.com 5580K
Consensus 5598K
Prior 5631K

10:00 Leading Indicators Oct
Briefing.com 0.5%
Consensus 0.4%
Prior 1.0%

10:00 Philadelphia Fed Nov
Briefing.com 12.0
Consensus 12.2
Prior 11.5

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

21. Weekly jobless claims flat at 505,000 - last wk rev'd up 3k

Total jobless claims at 9.19 million
8:30 a.m. Today

Continuing claims drop 39,000 to 5.61 million
8:30 a.m. Today

Weekly jobless claims flat at 505,000
8:30 a.m. Today

[ozymandius]

3. Oil falls to near $79 amid mixed economic signs

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia – Oil prices slipped to near $79 a barrel Thursday in Asia amid mixed signals over the strength of the global economic recovery.
.....

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that the country's stockpile of crude oil fell by 900,000 barrels last week. But the drop was hardly a sign of a recovering economy. American petroleum consumption has fallen to the lowest level since July 17, and oil companies are importing much less oil as they scale back their refining operations.

The Commerce Department separately said construction of homes and apartments fell 10.6 percent in October to an annual rate of 529,000 — well below the pace of 600,000 that economists expected.
.....

In other Nymex trading, heating oil fell 0.7 cents to $2.0414 a gallon. Gasoline for December delivery was down 0.6 cents to $2.0051 a gallon. Natural gas for December delivery fell 1.3 cents to $4.241 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Jobless benefits could end for many in January

WASHINGTON – More than 1 million people will run out of unemployment benefits in January unless Congress quickly extends federal emergency aid, a nonprofit group said Wednesday.

States typically provide 26 weeks of unemployment insurance for those who lose their jobs through no fault of their own, with weekly checks averaging about $300. Congress on Nov. 6 extended coverage for the fourth time since the recession began, granting 14 to 20 more weeks to try to keep about 1.3 million people who have been jobless for well over a year from running out of benefits before the end of 2009.

That boosted the total number of weeks a person could collect unemployment to as much as 99 in the hardest-hit states. But that legislation didn't address an underlying problem: The emergency unemployment compensation program, including all 73 additional weeks, expires at the end of this year.
.....

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said Tuesday that Congress would consider continuing the federal emergency program and other benefits included in the stimulus package as part of a bill focused on jobs. But Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid has said the Senate will finish work on health care before taking up a jobs bill, which could mean that it won't act until next year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091119/ap_on_bi_ge/us_unemployment_insurance_expiration

[ozymandius]

5. U.S. recovery seen subdued, jobless rate high: OECD

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economic recovery will be weaker than after previous deep recessions, and the high jobless rate will decline only slowly, the OECD said on Thursday.

In its twice-yearly economic outlook, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said the U.S. Federal Reserve and the White House must begin to withdraw economic supports as growth becomes self-sustaining.
.....

It pegged 2010 real gross domestic product growth at 2.5 percent, a sharp reversal from the 2.5 percent decline expected for 2009 but still not strong enough to put much of a dent in the unemployment rate, which is likely to remain above 9 percent through 2011.

After the deep U.S. recession in 1982, when GDP fell 1.9 percent, growth rebounded to 4.5 percent the following year and 7.2 percent the year after that, according to U.S. Commerce Department data.

This time, the OECD is forecasting a modest 2.8 percent rise in 2011 GDP, which would be well below the 3.2 percent average from 1997 through 2006.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091119/bs_nm/us_oecd_us

[ozymandius]

6. Aetna says cutting roughly 1,250 jobs

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Aetna Inc (AET.N) on Wednesday said it expects to eliminate roughly 1,250 jobs by the end of March 2010, reflecting weak economic conditions and the potential impact of health care reform.

The third-largest U.S. health insurer said it is cutting about 625 jobs now, and expects to make a similar number of cuts by the end of the first quarter. Such cuts would reflect about 3.5 percent of its 35,500-person workforce.
.....

The Hartford, Connecticut-based company expects to incur a $40 million after-tax charge, including $12 million for the initial job cuts and $28 million to consolidate real estate leases. It expects to disclose the financial impact of the remaining job cuts later.

Aetna last month said it may shed as many as 650,000 members in the first quarter of 2010, as it tries to raise premiums to cope with increasing medical costs.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091118/bs_nm/us_aetna;_ylt=Am44S1m3SPJEQhsQ5GWP4Sfv5rEF

[ozymandius]

7. Housing suffers a setback

In a blow to the optimism that had surrounded the U.S. housing sector in recent months, housing starts fell a sharp 10.6 percent in October, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

New construction on housing units dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 529,000, the lowest level since April. The 10.6 percent drop from September was the biggest percentage decline for starts since January.

Analysts were caught off guard by the news because many had expected an increase in new construction. However, they attributed the drop to builder uncertainty in October over whether Congress would extend a popular but controversial $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers beyond its Nov. 30 deadline.

Earlier this month Congress extended the credit through April and expanded it to include move-up buyers. The home-building industry cheered that news, and economists expect housing market activity to increase as a result.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-tc-biz-housing-1118-1119-nov19,0,2337490.story

[AnneD]

17. They can extend the credit till the cows come home.......

but until the prices come down on existing vacant homes and PEOPLE GET JOBS that weasly assed tax credit does not mean squat.

[ozymandius]

8. Wells Fargo agrees to buy back $1.4B in securities

SAN FRANCISCO — Wells Fargo & Co. on Wednesday agreed to repay customers about $1.4 billion to settle a lawsuit and regulatory investigations alleging the company improperly marketed risky investments as safe.

California Attorney General Jerry Brown sued the San Francisco-based bank last year and the North American Securities Administrators Association launched an inquiry of the bank's subsidiaries over sales of so-called auction-rate securities. The investments resemble corporate debt, except that the rate of interest they pay is frequently reset at auctions.

A number of companies, charities and individual investors were told the securities were as safe as cash. But the $330 billion market collapsed in February 2008, and investors' accounts were frozen.

Wells Fargo said Wednesday it agreed to buy back the securities from customers nationwide. The company also agreed to pay a $1.9 million fine while not admitting any wrongdoing.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jYJm20rRmnZwTyixJh2hZdWYBAEwD9C26TC80

[ozymandius]

9. Warren Winning Means You Won’t Sell It If You Can’t Explain It

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- In Elizabeth Warren’s world, credit card contracts would be so simple a teenager could read and understand them in four minutes. Loans would be as easy to compare as toasters, and online credit scores would be free.
.....

The 1966 high school debate champion of Oklahoma may get what she wants. The House of Representatives will vote in December on her idea. She suggested a Financial Product Safety Commission in a 2007 article in the magazine Democracy. President Barack Obama proposed it to Congress in June as the Consumer Financial Protection Agency.

Warren won’t discuss whether she may be a candidate to lead the authority, which would have the power to regulate $13.7 trillion of debt products. A Warren nomination would tell banks that Obama is determined to force reduced checking-account fees and limit lender claims in mortgage advertising, among other measures the industry opposes, said Thomas Cooley, dean of New York University’s Stern School of Business.
.....

A measure the House Financial Services Committee approved on Oct. 22 would empower the consumer agency to set limits on checking account overdraft fees and to ban credit cards with escalating rates and lending practices it deems predatory. Similar legislation is before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee.

If such an authority had existed, Americans might not have taken out the subprime and other mortgages that touched off the recession when house prices fell, Warren said. Congress is rewriting financial rules after the 2007-2008 crisis caused $1.67 trillion in writedowns and losses.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a.DEiDrOr.ms&pos=10

---

Good! And about damn time that Professor Warren should have the power to keep these hyenas at bay. Her detractors will obviously rally to the cause of "economic freedom" to get screwed eight different ways to protect their banking clientele.

[Joe Chi Minh]

18. I expect the words, 'freedom' and 'democracy' to the ears of Afgahn and Iraqi

children are the equivalent of the air-raid sirens we used to hear in the UK during WWII.

If their teacher, perhaps inadvertently, comes straight out with those words - instead of trying to find circumlocutions - they'd dive under their desks. I think it's maybe getting close to that in the US now.

[mbperrin]

24. Elizabeth Warren is fantastic! I use her as a source several times in my

high school economics classes, including a credit card piece by Frontline a few years ago. She shows like a psychic!

Smart, strong, principled - please let her head up a new agency like this!

[AnneD]

27. I think instead of shunting her to a small agency...

she should play in the sand box with the big boys.....Like Secretary of the Treasury of the US, put Volker in the new agency. He'll set it up right and his credential will not be questioned and he has Washington experience.

[mbperrin]

28. I'd LOVE that!

Please make that happen!

[ozymandius]

10. Volcker: Accounting Panel Needs to be Independent

Ritholtz asks, "Why aren’t we listening more to this font of common sense and logic?"

“A proposal to give banking regulators authority to block accounting standards is “a terrible idea,” Paul A. Volcker, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, said Monday.

Mr. Volcker has been an outspoken critic of “mark to market” accounting that forced banks to take large write-downs in asset values, a position cited by banks earlier this year when they persuaded members of the House Financial Services Committee to demand changes in that rule.

But in an interview Monday, two days before a House committee vote on a proposal that would grant bank regulators the power to sidestep accounting standards, Mr. Volcker said he believed that accounting rules had to be set by an independent agency. He voiced concern that rising political pressures on both sides of the Atlantic were endangering that independence.”

The Financial Services Committee is to vote on amendments to a bill to establish a council of bank regulators as a systemic risk regulator, able to take action if bank activities threaten financial stability. . .

Mr. Volcker was the founding chairman of the International Accounting Standards Committee Foundation, which oversees the International Accounting Standards Board, and has long been a supporter of independent rule-setting. He has been campaigning for a single set of international accounting standards, but he said on Monday that he feared that effort was being undermined.”

Its quite likely that this power will be exercised in the next crisis, removing yet more transparency and data for investors; Worse still, the accounting exemptions will create a new class of zombie banks.

more here...

[AnneD]

15. What is the point.....

of having an advisor with experience and then ignoring them.:banghead:

[ozymandius]

11. Democratic Rep. DeFazio Calls for Geithner and Summers to Be Fired

Please! Oh Please!

From Naked Capitalism:

The knives are starting to come out. DeFazio claims the discontent among the progressive wing has become acute. The Democratic Congressmen who have a operating brain cell know the considerable failings of Obama’s economic policies will be visited on them unless serious corrective action is taken in pretty short order. And that won’t happen with Summers and Geithner in place.

-embedded video at link-

[ozymandius]

12. I'm glad this story is receiving good exposure across the net.

From Firedog Lake:

The money quote:

“We may have to sacrifice two more jobs to get millions more for Americans.”

http://news.firedoglake.com/2009/11/18/peter-defazio-geithner-and-summers-should-be-fired/

[AnneD]

14. House Dem: 'Growing' liberal consensus to dump Geithner

A Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) member said there's "growing consensus" among liberals that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner should step down.

Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) said Wednesday that he and other liberal House members are becoming increasingly tired of Obama administration economic policies that they say are too focused on maintaining the stability of Wall Street firms and largely ignore "Main Street."
"A growing consensus in the caucus ," DeFazio said on MSNBC this evening, adding that some lawmakers are "considering questions regarding him and other economic advisers."

DeFazio said that lawmakers have not yet drafted a plan to remove Geithner. The lawmaker also took aim at top Obama economic adviser Larry Summers for furthering many of the same policies favored by Geithner.

"We need a new economic team," said DeFazio.

The veteran congressman specifically mentioned last year's bank bailouts and the Geithner's handling of the collapse of insurance giant AIG. At the time, Geithner was head of the New York Fed in the Bush administration.

"We may have to sacrifice just two more jobs to get millions back for Americans," the congressman added.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/68459-house-dem-gorwing-consensus-among-liberals-to-dump-geithner


News you can really use, even if it is a year too late.I like that, we may have to sacrifice 2 jobs to get back millions. That's my happy thought.

edited to add-looks like we are reaching for the same shiny coin Ozy. I'll add our early morning theme

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wb7F8cNF5lQ&feature=related

[Roland99]

20. "who have a operating brain cell"

Sorry, the grammar geek in me had a lot of trouble with that phrase.


:)



But, yeah, SOOOOO glad we're finally getting some voices against the status quo (Conyers on reinstating Glass-Steagall and now this)

[ozymandius]

13. Have a nice day, everyone.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
Away I go to work.

:hi:

[Ghost Dog]

16. Zinc Dimes, Tungsten Gold & Lost Interest (Willie)

In 1964 the USGovt introduced the zinc dimes clad with silver. They at least admitted the debauchery publicly. Now pre-1964 silver coins are all considered different, and valued differently too, higher. Rome committed the same coinage fraud 1900 years ago. Their Empire went bust as the city burned almost concurrently. Ayn Rand is a guiding light for Alan Greenspan, the enabling destroyer of the US banking system, destroyer of the US household archipelago, and dispatcher of the US industrial base to Asia. He is the hero icon worshipped by Wall Street. The irony is thick, that his career was spent following Old Europe orders that delivered the slow motion coup de grace to the American Empire. Ayn Rand wrote "If you want to know when a society is set to vanish, watch the money. Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men’s protection and the base of moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owner a counterfeit pile of papers." The Chinese are learning this lesson the hard way, challenged to convert their USTreasury Bonds and USAgency Mortgage Bonds into true wealth before the paper becomes worthless and untradable. Actually, the bonds will eventually be redeemed by the USFed with newly printed money, when an avalanche occurs of foreigners seeking redemption en masse. For almost ten years they have been exchanging their finished products to the US & West for paper with ink on it, a veritable counterfeit pile of papers. The Chinese are cashing in on their paper, trading it for new global power.

NEW TUNGSTEN MINE DISCOVERY

The tungsten deposits come in very high grade ore, located in shallow rectangular deposits dispersed widely across the world, segregated in unusual vault heap leach mineralizations. Yes, these guys are leeches! In October, the Hong Kong bankers discovered some gold bars shipped from the United States were actually tungsten with gold plating. This is the exact same Modus Operandi as the silver clad zinc dimes from 45 years ago. History repeats itself. The parallels to mortgage bond fraud with either subprime borrowers or multiple property titles used in bond securitization is easy to spot. A consistent theme runs through the American management of finance and dissemination of fraudulent assets on a global basis. Tungsten gold bars is a feat difficult to surpass. Credit must be given for not leaving any potential for fraud untapped. The Goldman Sachs front running of NYSE trades with their Unix box is just icing on the cake. Fortunately for them, the FBI hustled the whistle blower off and painted him as a Russian marauder of criminal type. Actually, the front running flash trade device is more like icing on the cake whose main body is the naked shorting of bank stocks done by Wall Street firms, whose protector in the USDept Treasury ordered a halt in the practice after they had finished shorting and needed help from the market in covering. Thus the Banned Bank Short List. What a complete comedy of corruption the US financial assets have become. So word comes of tungsten permeating the banking system. It appears the syndicate might be opening the floodgates for the bankers of the world to begin an attempt to corner the light bulb market!!

No disrespect is intended for the trillion$ counterfeits of superstar grade. Refer to the missing $2.3 trillion Pentagon appropriations announced on 10 September 2001. Actually that is just theft, at least done by patriots and certain allies. Refer to the JPMorgan recorded sales of $2.2 trillion in USTreasury Bonds over and above the total issuance by the USDept Treasury itself. That is counterfeit, by definition, at least done by the financial envy of the world. Refer to the missing $1.9 trillion in Fannie Mae funds documented by USDept Housing & Urban Devmt between the years of 1988 and 2000. That gutting was a presidential skeet shooting mission, maybe to fund libraries for memorabilia. These are dastardly deeds of distinction. These are legacy crimes.

/plenty more... http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/1118.html

Who can know, and tell, what's true, given the amount of propaganda, spin and outright fraud that is clearly prevalent, US-related above all, these days? Or, was it always like this?

[Festivito]

19. Debt: 11/17/2009 12,039,319,107,488.80 (UP 8,019,921,198.73) (Tue)

(Up a little.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,632,297,011,780.48 + 4,407,022,095,708.32
UP 263,245,360.02 + UP 7,756,675,838.71

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,968,798 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,092.66.
A family of three owes $117,277.98. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 4,118,025,619.95.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,019,885,454.63.
The average for the last 32 days would be 2,831,142,613.72.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 33 reports in 48 days of FY2010 averaging 3.92B$ per report, 2.70B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,160 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/17/2009 12,039,319,107,488.80 BHO (UP 1,412,442,058,575.72 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,129,490,103,977.10 ------------* * * BHO
Endof10 +0,984,664,332,325.88 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/27/2009 +000,626,474,250.98 ------------********
10/28/2009 +000,798,039,832.64 ------------********
10/29/2009 -019,769,093,363.09 -
10/30/2009 +031,206,306,633.43 ------------**********
11/02/2009 +091,997,621,963.98 ------------********** Mon
11/03/2009 +000,189,596,548.58 ------------********
11/04/2009 -000,084,777,046.07 ----
11/05/2009 +008,148,647,528.82 ------------*********
11/06/2009 -000,072,128,565.19 ----
11/09/2009 +000,009,587,108.80 ------------****** Mon
11/10/2009 +000,298,454,946.90 ------------********
11/12/2009 +005,635,979,422.58 ------------*********
11/13/2009 -000,263,776,071.91 ---
11/16/2009 +038,287,630,031.50 ------------********** Mon
11/17/2009 +000,263,245,360.02 ------------********

157,271,808,581.97 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4151100&mesg_id=4152781

[Festivito]

31. Debt: 11/18/2009 12,030,202,701,513.91 (DOWN 9,116,405,974.89) (Wed)

(Down some. Curses on those horrible treasurydirect.gov programmers. Aside from that, have a nice day.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,632,273,641,916.39 + 4,397,929,059,597.52
DOWN 23,369,864.09 + DOWN 9,093,036,110.80

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,977,438 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,061.96.
A family of three owes $117,185.88. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 3,542,615,550.61.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,716,005,255.47.
The average for the last 33 days would be 2,469,095,686.79.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 34 reports in 49 days of FY2010 averaging 3.54B$ per report, 2.46B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,159 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/18/2009 12,030,202,701,513.91 BHO (UP 1,403,325,652,600.83 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,120,373,698,002.20 ------------* * * BHO
Endof10 +0,896,661,219,812.32 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/28/2009 +000,798,039,832.64 ------------********
10/29/2009 -019,769,093,363.09 -
10/30/2009 +031,206,306,633.43 ------------**********
11/02/2009 +091,997,621,963.98 ------------********** Mon
11/03/2009 +000,189,596,548.58 ------------********
11/04/2009 -000,084,777,046.07 ----
11/05/2009 +008,148,647,528.82 ------------*********
11/06/2009 -000,072,128,565.19 ----
11/09/2009 +000,009,587,108.80 ------------****** Mon
11/10/2009 +000,298,454,946.90 ------------********
11/12/2009 +005,635,979,422.58 ------------*********
11/13/2009 -000,263,776,071.91 ---
11/16/2009 +038,287,630,031.50 ------------********** Mon
11/17/2009 +000,263,245,360.02 ------------********
11/18/2009 -000,023,369,864.09 ----

156,621,964,466.90 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4152724&mesg_id=4152786

[UpInArms]

22. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 75.455 Change +0.270 (+0.35%)

How Much Longer Can the Dollar Rebuff a Renewed Plunge?

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/what_fed_watches/2009-11-19-0211-How_Much_Longer_Can_the.html



The Economy and the Credit Market



There is a growing concern among policy officials that the US dollar’s drive to new lows is creating problems. The country’s trade partners have voiced such worries for months now as the already weakened demand among the world’s largest consumer was further depressed by the expense extolled by unfavorable exchange rates. More recent – and pressing – though has been the outcry that the currency’s standing is a side effect of the Fed’s extremely loose monetary policy stance. Another possible consequence of this effort to support the economy’s recovery: a quickly building asset bubble. Officials in China have led protests of the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to leave its benchmark rate at a historical low in a range between zero and 0.25 percent. This extraordinary liberal policy stance, it is argued, is fueling leverage and carry interest by offering an extremely low borrowing rate (a necessity to collect a reasonable yield differential when global rates are so low). Some Fed members have acknowledged this concern; but are non-committal when it comes to using the Fed Funds rate to address the market inefficiency when there are other economic and lending problems to work out. Nonetheless, this global concern adds a new dynamic that will look to fight the depreciation of the dollar. Though, should another wave of risk appetite arise, there will likely be little this factor can do to stop it.

...more...

Euro Loses Ground Despite OECD Forecast, British Pound Weakens for Third Day

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/us_open/2009-11-19-1148-Euro_Loses_Ground_Despite_OECD.html

The Euro slipped below the 20-Day SMA (1.4871) during the overnight session to a low of 1.4843 and continued to hold the narrow range from the previous week, and the single-currency is likely to trade sideways over the next 24 hours of trading as the global economic calendar remains fairly light for the remainder of the week. Nevertheless, as the EUR/USD fails to hold above 1.5000, it looks as though the double-top formation on the daily chart will play out over the near-term, and we may see the pair break to the downside in the week ahead following the bearish divergence in the relative strength index.

Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development held an improved outlook for global growth and doubled its growth projections for the top 30 nations as the group expects economic activity to expand at an annual rate of 1.9% next year from an initial forecast of 0.7% in June. The OECD forecasts economic activity in the U.S. to expand 2.5% over the following year, with the Euro-Zone anticipated to grow 0.9%, while the group projects the Japanese economy to grow 1.8%. At the same time, the organization argued that the European Central Bank should maintain the expansion in monetary policy “until late 2010” as growth prospects remain weak, and went onto say that the “emergency credit support measures should be withdrawn and policy rates gradually increased as the recovery gathers momentum” as the group anticipates a “gradual” pick-up in economic activity in the following year.

The British Pound weakened against the greenback for the third-day and slipped to a low of 1.6443 during the European trade however, we may see the GBP/USD retrace the sell-off over the following week as the rally remains well-supported by the 20-Day SMA at 1.6567. Meanwhile, the economic docket showed retail spending expanded 0.4% in October amid expectations for a 0.5% rise, while the annual rate of consumption jumped 3.4% from the previous year versus forecasts for a 2.9% increase. Moreover, the public deficit in the U.K. rose GBP11.4B during the same period amid forecasts for a GBP 7.0B rise, while the public sector net cash requirement widened GBP 5.9B during the month, which exceeded expectations for a short-fall of GBP 4.0B. At the same time, the OECD said that the Bank of England should hold the benchmark interest rate at the record-low until 2011 in order to encourage a sustainable recovery, and held a cautious outlook for the region as the group sees “strong headwinds from balance sheet adjustments, a still weakening labor market and fiscal tightening.” As the group calls on the central bank to support the economy throughout the following year, market participants may scale back long-term expectations for higher interest rates as BoE Governor Mervyn King maintains an “open mind” for future policy.

The greenback strengthened against most of its major counterparts as investors scaled back their appetite for risk, and the dollar may continue to appreciate going into the U.S. trade as the reserve currency benefits from safe-haven flows. Nevertheless, the economic docket could spark increased volatility in the foreign exchange market as investors await the results of mortgage delinquencies for the third-quarter, while Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is scheduled to testify in front of the Joint Economic Committee on financial regulation at 15:00 GMT. In addition, the Philadelphia Fed. factory index is projected to rise to 12.2 in November from 11.5 in the previous month, while the leading indicator is expected to increase 0.4% in October to mark the seventh consecutive monthly advance, and the data is likely to encourage an improved outlook for the U.S. as the expansion in monetary and fiscal policy works its way through the real economy.

...more...

[DemReadingDU]

23. AOL to lay off a third of staff

11/19/09
AOL Inc., the struggling Internet company, plans to cut about a third of its workers if its planned spinoff from Time Warner Inc. goes through.

That would amount to nearly 2,300 of the roughly 6,900 total employees.

In a securities filing Thursday, AOL said it will impose the cuts on a voluntary and involuntary basis, hoping to trim annual costs by about $300 million.

The job cuts still need approval from the new AOL board. Time Warner, the New York media conglomerate, said this week that it will spin AOL off to investors Dec. 9.

AOL, which is based in New York but also has major operations in Northern Virginia, said it will take about $200 million in charges for severance and other costs related to the restructuring.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/AOL-to-lay-off-a-third-of-apf-1129422111.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

[Ghost Dog]

25. Who speaks for Europe?

It has gone down in modern history as one of those famous quips never actually spoken – Henry Kissinger venting his exasperation with the arcane procedures of the EU by asking: "Who do I call when I want to speak to Europe?"

The conundrum persisted, even if the story is apocryphal. But at a chateau outside Brussels last week, the octogenarian US statesman found an answer to the question he never asked.

Kissinger met a haiku-writing Flemish politician, Herman Van Rompuy. The unassuming Belgian prime minister is strongly tipped to be the man whose phone number the American needs.

At a special summit dinner of EU government chiefs on Thursday in Brussels, Van Rompuy may be appointed president of the European council, running EU summits and representing the EU abroad, foiling Tony Blair's ill-disguised ambitions to be the first holder of the new office.

Van Rompuy met Kissinger at a closed session of international policymakers and industrialists chaired by Viscount Etienne Davignon, a discreetly powerful figure in Brussels who was vice-president of the European commission in the 1980s. The viscount currently chairs the Bilderberg Group, the shadowy global freemasonry of politicians and bankers who meet to discuss world affairs in the strictest privacy, spawning innumerable conspiracy theories. Van Rompuy, it seems, attended the Bilderberg session to audition for the European job, calling for a new system of levies to fund the EU and replace the perennial EU budget battles.

/WTF... http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/17/top-european-job-selection-process

[Demeter]

29. Kissinger Didn't Want Conversation With Europe--He Wanted to Issue Marching Orders!

What a has-been. Nobody would listen to the war criminal. Now he knows how W would feel, if W had an ounce of self-awareness or awareness in general.

[Ghost Dog]

30. But, still power-broking, see, Demeter; and still not arrested;

and over here.

This is intolerable.