STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday November 18

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday November 18, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 17, 2009

Dow... 10,437.42 +30.46 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq... 2,203.78 +5.93 (+0.27%)
S&P 500... 1,110.17 +0.87 (+0.08%)
Gold future... 1,139 0.00 (0.00%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.32 -0.01 (-0.21%)
30-Year Bond 4.26 -0.02 (-0.44%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Stimulus Junkies?
Part 1
BY RICHARD A. ECKERT

Risk asset valuations soar while the economy remains chained to that small nook between a rock and a hard place

The equity markets have continued their furious rally this month, with all of the major indices up 7.0% or more since the end of October. Most of these gains were recorded in the nine trading days since the end of the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, when the FOMC communicated its intent to keep interest rates low for an extended period of time. Not only did the FOMC’s statement contain the clause “…likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period” but the FOMC also reiterated its commitment to support the housing markets by purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency MBS and $175 billion of agency debt (as an aside, it is my understanding that the Fed now accounts for almost all purchases of new issues of Fannie and Freddie MBS). Reinforcing the equity markets’ confidence that interest rates would stay at extraordinarily low levels (indeed, we have to go back to the early years of the Eisenhower administration to find Fed Funds rates below 1.00 percent) indefinitely were reinforced by comments made by the presidents of the Federal Reserve district banks in Dallas, San Francisco and Atlanta.

The Fed’s commitment to providing liquidity to the financial system—as well as the broader economy—in the wake of the withdrawal of such liquidity by the global capital markets has truly been unprecedented. Not only has the Fed pushed short-term interest rates to near 0% and monetized both government and agency debt, but it has also established a veritable alphabet soup of liquidity facilities—TALF, TAF, AMLF, CPFF, MMIFF, PDCF, TSLF, TGLP—and begun lending directly to broker-dealers. The response of the federal government to the financial crisis and the deep recession it spawned has been no less unprecedented. Shortly after creating the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) with the enactment of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, Congress passed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 containing a $787 billion economic stimulus package. And two days after the Fed announced that it would maintain the Fed Funds rate at 0 – 0.25% this month, Congress enacted and President Obama signed into law the Worker, Homeownership and Business Assistance Act of 2009 extending and expanding eligibility for several of the programs launched by ARRA.

...That the Fed is willing to balloon its balance to well over $2 trillion from several hundred billion at the onset of the crisis and the federal government is willing to run trillion, trillion-and-a-half dollar deficits without fear of inflation and the higher interest rates that come with it suggest a very different U.S. economy than the one contemplated in the comments above as well as those of other public officials.

If that is the case, corporate earnings and cash flows may fall far short of those currently discounted in equity valuations. Indeed, those valuations no longer seem anchored by prospective cash flows—or even returns—corporate or economic fundamentals (see IPO Nos – Part 1, 10/15/2009). To be fair to equity investors, low rates have been kind to equity returns (see Exhibit I above). Lower interest rates increase the net present value of expected cash flows and can help improve those cash flows if businesses can borrow inexpensively and consumers can buy more of their products. Lower interest rates also reduce hurdle rates, or required rates of return, because not only is the risk-free rate lower, but expectations of low rates are typically associated with smaller risk premiums. Finally, low rates increase the liquidity provided to the equity markets, by, for all intents and purposes, penalizing the holding of cash and practically forcing savers and investors into riskier asset classes. Which would also explain the sharp increases in home values (ironically, until 2 or 3 years ago, investments in housing were not perceived as risky—to most individuals, they represented a certain return that was far greater than one could earn on cash savings).

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Housing Starts Oct
Briefing.com 585K
Consensus 600K
Prior 590K

08:30 Building Permits Oct
Briefing.com 585K
Consensus 580K
Prior 573K

08:30 CPI Oct
Briefing.com 0.2%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior 0.2%

08:30 Core CPI Oct
Briefing.com 0.0%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior 0.2%

10:30 Crude Inventories 11/13
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 1.76M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[DemReadingDU]

35. Housing starts, permits fall sharply in October

11/18/09
New U.S. housing starts in October unexpectedly fell to their lowest level in six months, weighed down by a sharp decline in construction activity for both single-family and multi-family dwellings, a government report showed on Wednesday.

The Commerce Department said housing starts dropped 10.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 529,000 units, the lowest level since April and the percentage drop was the biggest since January. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected housing starts to rise to 600,000 units. September's housing starts were revised upwards to 592,000 units from the previously reported 590,000 units.

Groundbreaking for single-family homes fell 6.8 percent last month to an annual rate of 476,000 units, the lowest since May. Starts for the volatile multifamily segment tumbled 34.6 percent to a 53,000 annual pace, extending the previous month's slump.

Compared to October last year, housing starts dropped 30.7 percent.

more...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-housing-starts-permits-rb-1220483596.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

not good.

[Demeter]

37. That Depends on Your Point of View

Building miles of ticky-tacky houses that would sit there unoccupied would be a greater loss to the economy and society. Very Soviet, building stuff that nobody wants to keep full employment...

[ozymandius]

3. Oil above $79 after US crude supply drop

SINGAPORE – Oil prices extended gains above $79 a barrel Wednesday in Asia after an unexpected drop in U.S. crude supplies suggested demand could be improving.
.....

U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly fell last week, the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday. Crude stocks fell 4.4 million barrels while analysts had expected a rise of 1.2 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

The Energy Information Administration plans to announce its inventory report later Wednesday.
.....

In other Nymex trading, heating oil rose 0.64 cents to $2.06 a gallon. Gasoline for December delivery gained 1.11 cents to $2.02 a gallon. Natural gas for December delivery jumped 3.8 cents to $4.57 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Top US lawmaker seeks jobs bill by December 18

WASHINGTON (AFP) – The US House of Representatives may pass a new economic stimulus bill by December 18 in a bid to combat sky-high US unemployment, a top congressional ally of President Barack Obama said Tuesday.
.....

"I wouldn't characterize it as a second stimulus. I don't want to be as broad as that, I want to be very targeted on jobs," said Hoyer, who declined to provide a figure or a precise breakdown of what the bill might include.

With a White House jobs summit set for December 3, Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has tasked the chairs of key committees to draw up suggestions, which will be blended together into a final bill, said Hoyer.
.....

Hoyer indicated that measures like helping states save public sector jobs, jobs tax credits, infrastructure investments were among the "whole list of options that are available."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091117/pl_afp/useconomyjobspoliticscongress

[Demeter]

11. OOOH that miserable so-and-so!

Steney Hoyer, DLC driver, total idiot. Getting religion? Things must be much worse than they've been willing to admit or reveal.

Or maybe he read a local paper, for once.

Does this mean that the wall of ignorance that surrounded Obama is starting to crumble, that Denial is out of flood stage?

[ozymandius]

5. China's Wen seeks to reassure Obama on trade

BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told President Barack Obama his nation does not seek a trade surplus with the United States and wants to balance flows, striking a conciliatory note but avoiding public comment on currency rifts.

Wen made the comments on Wednesday during a meeting with the U.S. President, according to a report on the Chinese Foreign Ministry website (www.mfa.gov.cn).
.....

Wen's comments are unlikely to mollify U.S. industry groups and politicians who say Beijing is holding its yuan currency so low against the dollar that it is stoking a U.S. trade deficit with China and worsening global economic imbalances.
.....

But the absence of any comment on the yuan in Wen's published comments was a telling reminder of the rifts remaining as Obama prepared to head for South Korea on Wednesday evening.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091118/ts_nm/us_obama_china

[ozymandius]

16. Obama, China, and Wishful Thinking About American Jobs

President Obama says he wants to "rebalance" the economic relationship between China and the U.S. as part of his plan to restart the American jobs machine. "We cannot go back," he said in September, "to an era where the Chinese . . . just are selling everything to us, we're taking out a bunch of credit-card debt or home equity loans, but we're not selling anything to them." He hopes that hundreds of millions of Chinese consumers will make up for the inability of American consumers to return to debt-binge spending.

This is wishful thinking. True, the Chinese market is huge and growing fast. By 2009, China was second only to the U.S. in computer sales, with a larger proportion of first-time buyers. It already had more cell-phone users. And excluding SUVs, last year Chinese consumers bought as many cars as Americans (as recently as 2006, Americans bought twice as many).
.....

But the larger explanation for Chinese frugality is that the nation is oriented to production, not consumption. China wants to become the world's preeminent producer nation. It also wants to take the lead in the production of advanced technologies. The U.S. would like to retain the lead, but our economy is oriented to consumption rather than production.

Deep down inside the cerebral cortex of our national consciousness we assume that the basic purpose of an economy is to provide more opportunities to consume. We grudgingly support government efforts to rebuild our infrastructure. We want our companies to invest in new equipment and technologies but also want them to pay generous dividends. We approve of government investments in basic research and development, but mainly for the purpose of making the nation more secure through advanced military technologies. (We regard spillovers to the private sector as incidental.)
.....

The dirty little secret on both sides of the Pacific is that both America and China are capable of producing far more than their own consumers are capable of buying.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-reich/obama-china-and-wishful-t_b_361492.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HP%2FBusiness+%28Business+on+The+Huffington+Post%29

[Demeter]

17. America Can and Will Turn This Around

because it must, or it will cease to exist as a viable country.

[fasttense]

29. So both countries have more supply than demand.

So, where are those who claimed they could create demand? Where are all the supply side economist and why aren't they creating demand?

[InkAddict]

32. After working so hard, I suspect they were not eligible for the GS

H1N1 immunization clinic, and are being somewhat agoraphobic just now - at home, wringing their hands for fear they'd caught something - Ahhhh-choo!

[InkAddict]

34. Oops - double post! It was the sneeze that did it!

[Demeter]

38. The Demand for Quality Never Ceases

But Walmart crap sells only because people in the aggregate can't afford better.

If everyone had all their needs met, that would be one thing. But we are nowhere near that Nirvana (or Hell, depending on your point of view).


When everybody has a healthy diet, a safe home, healthcare and a job, then we can say that demand has slackened.

[ozymandius]

6. US stock index futures point to mixed open; await CPI

* U.S. stock index futures pointed to a mixed opening on Wall Street on Wednesday as investors await U.S. inflation and housing start figures.

At 0956 GMT, futures for the S&P 500 SPc1 were up 0.04 percent, Dow Jones industrial average DJc1 were down 0.02 percent and Nasdaq 100 NDc1 futures were 0.1 percent lower.

* In Europe, shares bounced back on Wednesday to trade near their highest level in more than 13 months, with the FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index up 0.3 percent at 1,033.52 points at 0958 GMT.

* At 1330 GMT, investors will be bracing themselves for the Labor Department's release of October Consumer Price Index figures. Economists in a Reuters survey expect a 0.2 percent rise, a repeat of the September increase.

* They will also keep an eye on the Commerce Department release of housing starts and permits for October, also due at 1330 GMT. Economists in a Reuters survey forecast a 600,000 annualized rate versus a September rate of 590,000.

http://www.reuters.com/article/usMktRpt/idUSLI5844920091118

[ozymandius]

7. Goldman apologizes, offers $500 mln to small businesses

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs said late Tuesday that it would provide $500 million to support small businesses, hours after its CEO Lloyd Blankfein apologized for the group's role in the global financial crisis.

Goldman (GS 176.60, -0.65, -0.37%) has faced growing criticism over its likely massive bonus payouts as the U.S. economy remains in turmoil. It has also received, and subsequently paid back, $10 billion of aid from the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

The group said it will provide $100 million a year over the next five years, including a total of $200 million to provide scholarships for business and management educations and $300 million in the form of "loans and philanthropic support" to increase access to capital for small businesses.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-apologizes-offers-small-businesses-help-2009-11-18

---

How generous that they would give the proceeds of five trading days to say, "Sorry." :sarcasm: Clearly, they do not want Glass-Steagall to be revived.

[Demeter]

12. Too Much of a Stretch to Prevent Glass-Steagal's Return

Now, if they broke themselves up voluntarily....that might forestall it.

TPTB are really starting to get a little scared....GOOD!


And this does nothing to detoxify the bonus issue!

[ozymandius]

13. It also does nothing to detoxify the leverage issue.

While GS has paid back their share of TARP money - this does nothing for those brokerages on the other side of those trades. See my post #10.

[Roland99]

20. Why would he apologize for "doing God's work"?

Did God speak to him the other night, perhaps?

[Demeter]

25. Are You Think ing of This?

Boston Toast" by Harvard alumnus John Collins Bossidy.

"And this is good old Boston,
The home of the bean and the cod,
Where the Lowells talk only to Cabots,
And the Cabots talk only to God."<1>

[Roland99]

30. Maybe that's where he got the idea...

for saying this:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article6907681.ece

[Demeter]

40. It's Far More Likely

that we will discover Blankfein is one of those anonymous C Street Family members.

[AnneD]

46. Maybe it was....

Marley's ghost?

[Roland99]

48. Right author (Dickens). Wrong book.

"Please, sir. I want some more."


;-)

[tclambert]

22. Well, at least he apologized.

"So we wrecked the economy, panicked the whole world, and put millions out of work. Sorry 'bout that. Now, back to business as usual?"

[Dr.Phool]

39. As a friend of mine used to say,

"They act like that, right before they get shot".

I think the context is a little different, but applicable.

[Hugin]

44. "Shut up, Lloyd Blankfein!" (CNNMoney)(Opinion)

The Goldman Sachs CEO is trying to portray the Wall Street titan as a paragon of virtue. But Blankfein should stop pretending that the bank is a charity.

By Paul R. La Monica, CNNMoney.com editor at large
Last Updated: November 18, 2009: 12:22 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The public relations gurus who are advising Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein might want to give him some new advice. Shut up!

Blankfein made a startling confession Tuesday. He apologized for Goldman's role in the financial crisis, saying that the bank "participated in things that were clearly wrong and have reason to regret."

But it's tough to take Blankfein at his word. This mea culpa came a little more than a week after he made an embarrassing comment in an interview with the Financial Times, saying that he was just "doing God's work." Interesting. I don't believe there are any references to credit default swaps in the Bible, Torah, Koran or any other religious text.

While Blankfein might have made the "God's work" comment in jest, it still goes to show that he needs to tread carefully if he really wants to prove to taxpayers that Goldman is not really the blood-sucking parasite that many are now making it out to be.

Goldman is facing a populist backlash because it was one of the original nine firms to receive bailout funds last fall. But it is now all of a sudden generating gigantic profits again and putting away large wads of cash for employees in its bonus pool.

Goldman has earned $8.4 billion in the first nine months of 2009. The company has already set aside $16.7 billion for compensation expenses, putting it on track to have a bonus pool of about $21 billion at year's end.

Rant on... http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/18/markets/thebuzz/

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

[ozymandius]

8. Reid Pushes Party Holdouts to Vote for Health-Care Bill Debate

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he’s close to unveiling legislation to overhaul the U.S. health-care system even as fellow Democrats raise concerns over issues from abortion to a government-run insurance plan.

Reid, who is scheduled to meet with the Senate Democratic caucus at 5 p.m. today, said he expects cost estimates from the Congressional Budget Office “very soon” and is hopeful he can get enough votes to start debate on the bill.
.....

Letter From Economists

The economists said the bill should impose an excise tax on high-cost insurance plans; not increase the deficit; set up an independent commission to make binding recommendations on Medicare cuts, and carry out “delivery-system reforms,” which would reward health-care providers for “providing better care, not just more care.”

Including those elements “will reduce long-term deficits, improve the quality of care, and put the nation on a firm fiscal footing,” wrote the economists, who included Princeton University Professors Alan Blinder and Uwe Reinhardt and former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alice Rivlin.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahDJJq5wl8II&pos=9

[AnneD]

47. Reid and Pelosi...

and other DEM's need to grow spines on this one-that or either change to the shitty insurance the rest of us put up with. We can all be put on a medicare type program and cut private insurance off at the knees-get them totally out of the health care system. They have been so useless on this debate.

[ozymandius]

9. Not So Pretty Numbers And The New Bubble Logic

This morning’s reports on producer prices and industrial production aren’t painting an exactly bright picture of the economy, and it’s those dark brush strokes on the underside of the economic landscape that are painting government officials into a corner, essentially forcing their hands into keeping the stimulus spigots wide open (wow, talk about mixing your metaphors,) bubbles and inflation be damned.

First there’s industrial production. Yes, it produced (pun intended) its fourth consecutive monthly gain, but that gain was by a scant 0.1%, and even that gain was wholly a result of increased output from utilities during a cold snap. Without that, IP would have slipped in the first month of the fourth quarter. “Manufacturing output (excluding the utilities) actually fell by 0.1% last month,” Capital Economics’ Paul Ashworth wrote.
.....

Now, while “inflation worries” are nowhere to be found, deflationary worries aren’t so safely tucked away. Again, from Ashworth: he notes there’s a “renewed” divergence in producer prices, with food and energy prices rising, but the so-called “core” prices falling. Core prices fell 0.6%, which is strikes us as pretty big, given the “core” rate doesn’t usually move that widely. Apart from a 0.4% rise in June, the core rate has not moved more than 0.1-0.2% in either direction all year.
.....

Somebody said this morning, and I can’t remember where exactly I read this, which is driving me crazy, that the Fed has effectively painted itself into a corner. It can’t raise rates without risking the dreaded double-dip recession. But if it doesn’t raise rates at some point, this weak dollar that’s purportedly fueling every risk on the planet risks another big, ugly bubble bursting just about everywhere.

http://markettalk.newswires-americas.com/?p=6216

[ozymandius]

10. Why the Crisis Isn't Going Away - By Mike Whitney

Size matters. And it particularly matters when the size of the financial system grossly exceeds the productive capacity of the underlying economy. Then problems arise. Surplus capital flows into paper assets triggering a boom. Then speculators pile in, driving asset prices higher. Margins grow, debts balloon, and bubbles emerge. The frenzy finally ends when the debts can no longer be serviced and the bubble begins to crumple, sometimes violently. As gas escapes, credit tightens, businesses are forced to cut back, asset prices plunge and unemployment soars. Deflation spreads to every sector. Eventually, the government steps in to rescue the financial system while the broader economy slumps into a coma.
.....

The Fed's emergency intervention pulled the system back from the brink, but at great cost. Even now, the true value of the so-called toxic assets remains unknown. The Fed and Treasury have derailed attempts to create a public auction facility--like the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC)--where prices can be determined and assets can be sold. Billions in toxic waste now clog the Fed's balance sheet. Ultimately, the losses will be passed on to the taxpayer.

The problem is, the Fed's "lending facilities" have removed any incentive for financial institutions to deleverage. Asset prices are propped up by low interest, rotating loans on dodgy collateral. While households have suffered huge losses (of nearly $14 trillion) in home equity and retirement savings; the financial behemoths have muddled through largely unscathed. The Fed handed Wall Street a golden parachute while ordinary working stiffs were kicked to the curb. That's why household spending has plunged while the big brokerage houses are gearing up. Here's an excerpt from an article by former Morgan Stanley analyst Andy Xie which explains what's really going on:

First, let’s look at the most basic objective of deleveraging the financial sector. Top executives on Wall Street talk about having cut leverage by half. That is actually due to an expanding equity capital base rather than shrinking assets. According to the Federal Reserve, total debt for the financial sector was US$ 16.5 trillion in the second quarter 2009 — about the same as the US$ 16.6 trillion reported one year earlier. After the Lehman collapse, financial sector leverage increased due to Fed support. It has come down as the Fed pulled back some support, creating the perception of deleveraging. The basic conclusion is that financial sector debt is the same as it was a year ago, and the reduction in leverage is due to equity base expansion, partly due to government funding. (Andy Xie, "Why One Good Bubble Deserves Another", Caijing.com)

See? The financial Goliaths are still leveraged to their eyeballs.

http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney11032009.html

[Demeter]

15. You Know, When This Thing Blows, It's Going to Blow Fast

They've thrown everything they have into the fight already, every little trick and dodge and deception, and it simply wasn't enough to overcome reality or overwhelm the forces of nature.

And it's going to blow completely. The entire top 10% of the economy, the Parasites that have been feeding off the dying corpse that was the greatest engine ever known, will be forced out.

It will take a few years to sort it out. And it will only get sorted out if those who triggered the bubble and collapse are totally removed from any further power to meddle--say 20 to life in Club Fed.

[amandabeech]

45. "They've thrown everything they have into the fight already . . ."

Interesting comment.

Over in GD today, there was a thread based on a McClatchey story about U.S. troop strength. If Obama puts 34,000 more troops in Afghanistan, we will have no reserves. So if Kim Jong Il decides to act up, there's nothing that we can do about it.

Obama talked in the campaign about increasing troop strength by 102,000. Where is that money coming from even if we have that many unemployed young people who will fight for food?

This whole damned thing is totally spinning out of control.

[dschis]

52. You're a wise person

The last 10 years have been an imaginary economy. You have to give the TPTB credit they've bubble-gummed it together pretty well until 2007 when it really started coming apart. They're still trying though, but the cat's out of the bag.

[Demeter]

14. Yup. By Attempting to Reinstate the Consumer Economy

the Federal Reserve will be consumed and vanish, 100 years after being rammed down the People's throats. It can't happen too soon, IMO. Such irresponsibility doesn't deserve such power.

And to think, it took Ayn Rand and Alan Greenspan, two amazingly blind if not psychotic individuals, with the help of Boy George, to do it!

[Po_d Mainiac]

23. Raise rates and the "carry trade" bubble busts

The cash that will pour out of inflated equities will expose the last year of gains for what they were.

Then maybe the sheeple will wake up.

[ozymandius]

18. Have a nice day, all.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
Time is nigh for stepping out the door.

:hi:

[Demeter]

19. Good Morning, Ozy!

I haven't felt this positive and cheerful in a long time.

It's not just schadenfreude, either. It's the fact that the crimes are going to be punished, and it will be the perpetrators who suffer the most. They will lose their power, their positions, their status, their income and their assets. A whole generation of Baby PTB will find their inheritances are gone. They will actually have to scrape for a living. No more Boy Georges!

With Obama in office, there may even be some effort to limit the collateral damage to ordinary people.

I'm thinking that the election process with Big Money will also collapse, as there won't be that kind of money sloshing through. It will be evaporated or stripped away, as should have happened but hasn't since Nixon.

Yes, I think I'm finally getting the Audacity of Hope.

[tclambert]

21. Who are you?

Alert the moderators. Someone stole Demeter's password!

"I'm thinking that the election process with Big Money will also collapse." Hell, I'm not THAT optimistic. I usually hope the Big Money players will sort themselves into opposing groups and cancel each other out. Competitive marketplace stuff. Unfortunately, the colluders and monopolists have the ascendancy right now.

[Demeter]

24. I Said I Was Feeling Better

Much better. I think I'll go for a walk....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R91L7LhH-wg&feature=PlayList&p=7E082C12B66AFC2A&index=0


No, really. The entire house of cards is tumbling down. What cannot continue, will not.

These bastards got a $14T infusion to make them whole last year. It cannot happen twice--the Chinese don't need to give us any more rope, they have a sufficiency.

The Chinese no longer have a need for the "stability" of US hegemony. They won't support the piratical Crony Capitalists out of love, and not even for money--since there isn't any more.

The Chinese may even take over the world--relatively speaking, if only by being the 600 lb gorilla in the room. Their very presence will put paid to the BFEE, who thinks they bought the Chinese, but will find the shoe on the other foot shortly.

Dark and terrible times, Harry!

http://harrypotter.warnerbros.com/harrypotterandthehalf-bloodprince/dvd/index.html

[Demeter]

26. Gold hits another high

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091118/bs_nm/us_markets_global

Gold hit another all-time high on Wednesday on worries about future inflation and economic uncertainties, while Asian stocks rebounded as the generally bearish dollar kept riskier assets in demand.

Spot gold rose as high as $1,143.95 per ounce in early Asia trade, settling later just above $1,140, with expectations for a continued weakness in the U.S. currency also providing a support.

The dollar (.DXY) rose as investors trimmed short positions after euro zone economic policymakers followed U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in commenting about the merits of a strong dollar, but dealers said the rebound would likely be limited.

"It's going to be hard for the dollar to gain further, since it looks like that the U.S. will keep its low interest rate policy for a while," said Tomohiro Nishida, treasury department manager at Chuo Mitsui Trust and Banking Company in Tokyo.

Expectations that the U.S. interest rates will stay low for some time have dragged down the dollar against major currencies and made global investors look for better returns from riskier trades, such as emerging markets currencies and stocks.

[Demeter]

27. JAL in Play

Delta and American sweeten rival offers to JAL

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d578979a-d3f8-11de-8caf-00144feabdc0.html

Delta Air Lines and American Airlines on Wednesday sweetened their competing offers of financial support to Japan Airlines, the troubled carrier whose links to China and other Asian destinations have made it a potentially valuable prize.

Delta said it and its SkyTeam alliance partners were prepared to commit $1bn worth of aid, including $500m in new capital, to woo JAL away from the American-led OneWorld alliance. Delta had initially indicated it would invest about $300m in JAL.

...In addition to a $500m injection of “non-voting equity capital”, Mr Bastian said Delta would provide $200m in asset-backed financing; replace up to $300m in lost short-term revenue during the transition to SkyTeam; and pay computer-integration and other switching costs, estimated at $20m.

Delta and American hope to benefit from a liberalising “open skies” deal between the US and Japan that is expected to be signed next year. Mr Bastian dismissed claims that Delta – which unlike American has a large hub of its own in Tokyo – could not win an exemption from US anti-trust laws, something it would need to cooperate more closely with JAL after open skies comes into force.

In contrast to Delta, American has been vague about whether it would commit its own money to JAL. Instead it has brought TPG, the US buyout group, on board as a financial investor.

People close to TPG said on Wednesday it could inject as much as $1bn into JAL, based on deals that the US private equity firm had conducted in the past and on the amount of funds it had at its disposal. They added that no concrete numbers had been discussed with JAL.

JAL’s problems – and the investment risks for Delta or American – were underscored by Seiji Maehara, Japan’s transport minister, who suggested the airline could be allowed to file for bankruptcy if the state turnround body’s efforts to formulate a restructuring plan stall.

In remarks to a parliamentary committee, Mr Maehara said an earlier promise not to let JAL fail did not preclude a court-led restructuring. “I never said we would not allow a bankruptcy. I meant that we would not allow JAL to go out of business and disappear.”

The turnround body’s effort is seen as an alternative to bankruptcy, However if the Enterprise Turnaround Initiative Corporation determines that it cannot win necessary concessions from JAL stakeholders it could recommend court intervention.

JAL’s banks and pensioners have been particularly reluctant to relinquish claims on the airline that would reduce its more than Y1,400 of interest-bearing debt.

TPG may invest up to $1.1 billion in Japan Airlines: report

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-firm-may-invest-1-billion-in-japan-airlines-2009-11-17?siteid=YAHOOB%2CYAHOOB%0A

U.S.-based private equity firm TPG Inc. is prepared to invest as much as 100 billion yen ($1.1 billion) in Japan Airlines Corp. as part of an effort undertaken with American Airlines to fortify the struggling carrier, according to a report Wednesday.

Japanese business daily Nikkei reported that pending the approval of the Japanese government, TPG will attempt to bolster JAL in tandem with American Airlines parent AMR Corp. American is a fellow member in the Oneworld airline alliance.

The TPG investment would be made in the form of a private placement of JAL stock, according to the report.

The report followed an earlier Dow Jones account that TPG was considering buying a minority stake in ailing Japanese carrier. See item on TPG seeking minority stake in JAL:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tpg-may-seek-minority-stake-in-japan-airlines-2009-11-11

BIGGER TOYS FOR THE BIGGER BOYS...OR MAYBE A DESPERATE ATTEMPT TO PROP UP THE JAPANESE ECONOMY IN GENERAL?

[CatholicEdHead]

41. The article fails to mention that Delta's Japan hubs were Northwest's

up until they merged. Delta on its own had no other way to get international hubs.

[Demeter]

50. Good Point!

So Northwest needs JAL so that people will fly their Japanese legs...to China and beyond.


Because as a destination, Japan is so 1980's.

[UpInArms]

28. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 74.960 Change -0.409 (-0.53%)

British Pound Holds Narrow Range Following BoE Minutes, U.S. Dollar Loses Ground on Risk Appetite

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/us_open/2009-11-18-1118-British_Pound_Holds_Narrow_Range.html

The British Pound spiked to a low of 1.6768 following the Bank of England meeting minutes as policy makers voted 7-1-1 to increase its asset purchase program by GBP 25B to GBP 200B, but has bounced back ahead of the U.S. trade to remain little changed from the previous day. As the GBP/USD fails to push back above 1.6900, with the RSI approaching overbought territory, we may see the pound-dollar fall back towards the 20-Day SMA at 1.6569 over the remainder of the week to test for short-term support.

The BoE minutes showed the central bank voted unanimously to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.50%, while board member Spencer Dale wanted to keep the emergency program unchanged at GBP 175B, with David Miles pushing for a GBP 40B increase to GBP 215B, and the split in the MPC may drag on the currency going forward as investors weigh the outlook for future policy. Moreover, the central bank discussed the possibility of cutting the deposit rate for commercial bank reserves in an effort to “ease monetary conditions further,” and went onto say that “some members thought that that downside risks to activity in the near term were somewhat greater than implied by the inflation report projections.” As the BoE fails to meet on common ground and holds a cautious outlook for the economy, the MPC may take further steps to stem the downside risks for growth and inflation and may expand its emergency programs in the months ahead as Governor Mervyn King maintains an “open mind” for future policy. Meanwhile, a report by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) showed manufacturing orders increased in November to reach its highest level this year, with the index rising to -45 from -51 in the previous month, while the gauge for export orders jumped to -37 from -46 as the depreciation in the exchange rate helped to boost the competitiveness of U.K. goods.

The euro advanced against the greenback during the European trade and rose to a high of 1.4963, but the lack of momentum to push above the previous day’s high (1.5000) may keep the EUR/USD within a narrow range going into the U.S. trade. As the pair fails to break above 1.5050 in November, we could see the double-top formation in the euro-dollar play out over the remainder of the month and may fall back towards the 100-Day SMA at 1.4494 over the near-term to test for support. Meanwhile, the economic docket showed the current account slipped to -5.4B seasonally adjusted in September from a revised reading of 0.6B in the previous month, while construction outputs slipped 1.1% during the same period after rising 0.1% in August, and the data reinforces a weakened outlook for the euro-region as policy makers see a risk for a protracted recovery.

The U.S. dollar weakened against most of its currency counterparts during the overnight session following the rebound in risk appetite, and the greenback may face increased selling pressures going into the North American trade as equity futures foreshadow a higher open for the U.S. market. Nevertheless, consumer prices in the world’s largest economy are expected to increase 0.2% for the second consecutive month in October, with the annualized rate forecasted to fall 0.3% from the previous year after tumbling 1.3% in the previous month, and the rebound in price growth could encourage long-term expectations for higher interest rates in the U.S. as the Federal Reserve concludes its easing cycle. At the same time, housing starts are expected to rise to an annual pace of 600K in October from 590K in the previous month, while building permits are projected to increase to 580K from 573K, and the data is likely to foster an improved outlook for future growth as the economy emerges from the worst recession since the Great Depression.

...more...

US Dollar Forecast to Trade in Choppy Range on Unclear Sentiment

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_options_forecast/2009-11-17-1638-US_Dollar_Forecast_to_Trade.html

Forex options and futures markets paint a decidedly mixed picture for the US Dollar, as traders are increasingly unsure of short-term direction. We had been calling for a major US Dollar turnaround for quite some time now, and the EUR/USD’s sharp initial reversal from $1.50 gave us reason to believe that the Greenback could continue higher.

Forex options and futures markets paint a decidedly mixed picture for the US Dollar, as traders are increasingly unsure of short-term direction. We had been calling for a major US Dollar turnaround for quite some time now, and the EUR/USD’s sharp initial reversal from $1.50 gave us reason to believe that the Greenback could continue higher. Yet the opposite has been true, and it has become increasingly difficult to establish a firm short-term trading bias. Suffice it to say, it will be critical to watch price action and sentiment indicators in the week ahead.



<snip>



...more...

[DemReadingDU]

31. Meredith Whitney: "I haven't been this bearish in a year"

11/16/09 "I haven't been this bearish in a year"
Meredith Whitney

Stocks are overvalued and the US economy is likely to fall back into a recession next year, well-known analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC.

In a wide-ranging interview, Whitney, CEO of the Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, also said:

She was disappointed that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke didn't spell out how the Federal Reserve planned to exit "the biggest Fed program to date, which is the mortgage-backed purchase program." In a speech earlier Thursday, Bernanke said the central bank was watching the dollar's decline but is likely to keep interest rates low.

The US consumer was going through the biggest credit contraction ever—even bigger than that during the Great Depression. "That credit contraction is accelerating," she said. "There's nowhere to hide at this point."

The banking sector is not adequately capitalized and will need to raise more capital in the coming year.

The residential real estate market is likely to worsen and remains a much bigger threat than the commercial property market. The government's mortgage modification program won't result in any major improvement in homeowners' ability to stay above water, she added.
"I don't know what's going on in the market right now because it makes no sense to me," she said.


"The scariest thing about the Fed's program is that the money on the sidelines isn't going to support that asset class," she added. "So the trillion dollars of Fannie (Mae), Freddie (Mac) and mortgage-backed securities that the Fed is holding—there's no substitute buyer there."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33972133

click to watch 12 minute video
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1332936523&play=1

[natrat]

36. "I don't know what's going on in the market right now because it makes no sense to me," she said.

fed gives banks free money,,they short the dollar and buy commodities and stocks rather than lending it. They pop the bubble whenever they fell like it? seems simple enough

[DU GrovelBot]

33. ## PLEASE DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##

This week is our fourth quarter 2009 fund drive. Democratic Underground is
a completely independent website. We depend on donations from our members
to cover our costs. Please take a moment to donate! Thank you!

[AnneD]

42. "Tide Led by Exports Won't Lift U.S. Boat"......

The recoveries afoot in Germany, China and even Japan should bode well for a global economy that was pushed to the edge of a serious depression in the last year. Earlier this month, the 16-nation eurozone was lifted out of recession by a strengthening German economy, and China is on the cusp of surpassing growth estimates for 2009. Things are looking up, it seems, everywhere but here.

The U.S. is getting better, but not as fast, breaking a pattern in which it has led the world out of economic downswings. But economists and market watchers are not convinced the global rising tide lifts all boats, including ours. In fact, many are worried that the United States will lag many other recovering economies because it's being flooded with other countries' stimulus, and that in turn could threaten the upturn for the global business cycle, says economist Robert Brusca, founder of Fact and Opinion Research.

"Everyone talks like China is doing something that helps the rest of the world, but China is taking from the rest of the world through domestic stimulus as an export-led economy," Brusca says. "Germany has export-led growth too. Where is the demand that's stimulating all this export-led growth?"

Germany, too has taken the same path, spending more than 66 billion euros, about $100 billion, to push its exports world-wide over the past two years, and promising another $36 billion in tax cuts next year. That sits poorly with Brusca. "Allowing all these countries to run trade surpluses is wrong," he says. "You can't expect the U.S. to cure its trade deficit problems if all these other countries have all this export-led growth."

Sputtering economies rely on government spending, or stimulus, to pull them out of recession. You may have heard a bit about our own measures like the cash for clunkers program or the massive bailout of the financial services industry known as TARP. It hasn't been cheap: various estimates put the annual cost at about $400 billion, about 3% of the country's $14 trillion gross domestic product.

more.....


http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/economy/tide-led-by-exports-won-t-lift-u-s-boat/

Seems like the government is acting like some of these homeowners they like to trash. We have no savinggs, we are browing for our day to day need, and what improvements we have seen is due to using the plastic. We are in such deep doo doo.:eyes:

[Demeter]

51. So Who Are the Exporting Countries Exporting To?

Don't think it's US.

And where is there any sign that the US is anywhere in the range of a recovery?
We are just not going to hell quite as quickly as we were a year ago.

[AnneD]

43. "Commercial property sales sink"....

Houston may not be seeing the wave of commercial property foreclosures that other markets are, but sales sure have taken a hit.

At the end of September, commercial real estate sales for the year were down 84 percent compared with the previous 12-month period, according to San Francisco-based LoopNet, an online marketplace for commercial real estate listings.

Last week brought a bit of good news with the sale of downtown's 20-story JPMorgan Chase Center at 601 Travis.

The property, which has 12 levels of parking and about 450,000 square feet of office and retail space, sold for $51 million, according to a source who wasn't authorized to discuss the price.

Still, the market is beyond slow.

Sales volumes for all property types were down significantly over the last 12 months ending in September.

more....

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/sarnoff/6720230.html

The picture here is not as rosy as some folks will tell you. It isn't a disaster like others places...but it's not all that great.

[Demeter]

49. Not One, But TWO Desperate Saves Today

Somebody had a lot of money riding on the market, I bet.

[dschis]

53. +10

[Festivito]

54. Debt: 11/16/2009 12,031,299,186,290.07 (UP 39,792,309,877.00) (Mon)

(Up a lot. I'm posting late. No computer for nearly two days.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,632,033,766,420.46 + 4,399,265,419,869.61
UP 38,287,630,031.50 + UP 1,504,679,845.50

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,960,158 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,067.71.
A family of three owes $117,203.14. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 3,932,221,068.58.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,752,554,748.00.
The average for the last 31 days would be 2,663,762,659.36.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 32 reports in 47 days of FY2010 averaging 3.80B$ per report, 2.58B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,161 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/16/2009 12,031,299,186,290.07 BHO (UP 1,404,422,137,376.99 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,121,470,182,778.30 ------------* * * BHO
Endof10 +0,943,332,270,512.34 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/26/2009 -000,680,933,964.04 --- Mon
10/27/2009 +000,626,474,250.98 ------------********
10/28/2009 +000,798,039,832.64 ------------********
10/29/2009 -019,769,093,363.09 -
10/30/2009 +031,206,306,633.43 ------------**********
11/02/2009 +091,997,621,963.98 ------------********** Mon
11/03/2009 +000,189,596,548.58 ------------********
11/04/2009 -000,084,777,046.07 ----
11/05/2009 +008,148,647,528.82 ------------*********
11/06/2009 -000,072,128,565.19 ----
11/09/2009 +000,009,587,108.80 ------------****** Mon
11/10/2009 +000,298,454,946.90 ------------********
11/12/2009 +005,635,979,422.58 ------------*********
11/13/2009 -000,263,776,071.91 ---
11/16/2009 +038,287,630,031.50 ------------********** Mon

156,327,629,257.91 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4149514&mesg_id=4149528

[Festivito]

55. Debt: 11/17/2009 12,039,319,107,488.80 (UP 8,019,921,198.73) (Tue)

(Up a little.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,632,297,011,780.48 + 4,407,022,095,708.32
UP 263,245,360.02 + UP 7,756,675,838.71

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,968,798 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,092.66.
A family of three owes $117,277.98. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 4,118,025,619.95.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,019,885,454.63.
The average for the last 32 days would be 2,831,142,613.72.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 33 reports in 48 days of FY2010 averaging 3.92B$ per report, 2.70B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,160 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/17/2009 12,039,319,107,488.80 BHO (UP 1,412,442,058,575.72 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,129,490,103,977.10 ------------* * * BHO
Endof10 +0,984,664,332,325.88 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/27/2009 +000,626,474,250.98 ------------********
10/28/2009 +000,798,039,832.64 ------------********
10/29/2009 -019,769,093,363.09 -
10/30/2009 +031,206,306,633.43 ------------**********
11/02/2009 +091,997,621,963.98 ------------********** Mon
11/03/2009 +000,189,596,548.58 ------------********
11/04/2009 -000,084,777,046.07 ----
11/05/2009 +008,148,647,528.82 ------------*********
11/06/2009 -000,072,128,565.19 ----
11/09/2009 +000,009,587,108.80 ------------****** Mon
11/10/2009 +000,298,454,946.90 ------------********
11/12/2009 +005,635,979,422.58 ------------*********
11/13/2009 -000,263,776,071.91 ---
11/16/2009 +038,287,630,031.50 ------------********** Mon
11/17/2009 +000,263,245,360.02 ------------********

157,271,808,581.97 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4151100&mesg_id=4152781