STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday November 17

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday November 17, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 16, 2009

Dow... 10,406.96 +136.49 (+1.33%)
Nasdaq... 2,197.85 +29.97 (+1.38%)
S&P 500... 1,109.30 +15.82 (+1.45%)
Gold future... 1,139 +22.70 (+2.03%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.33 -0.09 (-2.60%)
30-Year Bond 4.27 -0.09 (-1.98%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Predatory Lending and Outsourcing of Jobs
A Deadly Combination
BY ROB KIRBY

Catherine Austin Fitts has been sounding the alarm about the pillage of America for more than a decade,

“Overwhelming American communities with mortgage, auto and credit card debt as we shift manufacturing and research capacity, jobs and approximately $10 trillion of capital offshore—much of it by illegal means— has been the US economic strategy since 1996.”

.....

How China’s Stimulus Has Become a Double-Edged Sword for America

For years, America has been exporting inflation to China. The monetary inflation that America has been exporting has (at least, up till now) been ‘sterilized’ – quietly accumulating in China’s foreign reserve accounts. The economic downturn has resulted in 1) – a growing reluctance of China to increase their pro-rata share of new U.S. Debt and 2) – the mobilization of China’s reserves to simulate domestic Chinese demand. We can see this statistically in stalling Chinese TIC accumulations as well as Chinese monetary aggregate data,

The (Chinese) money supply grew rapidly with continued increase in loans of financial institutions. By the end of September, the supply of broad money (M2) was 58.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 29.3 percent, which was 11.5 percentage points higher than that at the end of last year; that of the narrow money (M1) was 20.2 trillion yuan, a rise of 29.5 percent, or 20.5 percentage points higher; the cash in circulation (M0) was 3,678.8 billion yuan, up by 16.0 percent, or 3.3 percentage points higher.

Remember folks, inflation is a monetary event – and China is now growing their money supply at a much faster rate than America,

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Core PPI Oct
Briefing.com 0.2%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior -0.1%

08:30 PPI Oct
Briefing.com 0.7%
Consensus 0.5%
Prior -0.6%

09:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows Sep
Briefing.com $30.0B
Consensus $30.0B
Prior $28.6B

09:15 Capacity Utilization Oct
Briefing.com 70.5%
Consensus 70.8%
Prior 70.5%

09:15 Industrial Production Oct
Briefing.com 0.2%
Consensus 0.4%
Prior 0.7%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Roland99]

25. U.S. Oct. factory output inches up 0.1%

U.S. Oct. factory output inches up 0.1%
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-oct-factory-output-inches-up-01-2009-11-17

he output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities rose 0.1% in October, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday. The gain was due almost entirely to a big jump in utility output. Every other sector except material production was flat or down. The October increase was less than expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Analysts had been expecting a 0.4% gain. Capacity utilization - a gauge of slack in the economy -- rose to 70.7% in October from 70.5% in September

[Roland99]

26. Wholesale prices up 0.3% on higher energy, food costs

Wholesale prices up 0.3% on higher energy, food costs
U.S. data show October's core PPI off 0.6%, led by drop in car and truck prices
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-oct-ppi-up-03-on-higher-energy-food-costs-2009-11-17-83100

U.S. wholesale prices for October rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% on higher food and energy costs, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.

Excluding volatile food and energy goods, the core producer price index fell last month by 0.6%, the biggest decline in three years. Lower prices for light trucks and cars led the way.

The producer price index has fallen 1.9% in the past year, while the core PPI has risen 0.7%.

Inflation at the wholesale level was lower than what had been forecast by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. They looked for a 0.5% increase in the headline PPI and a 0.1% gain in the core October rate.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil hovers below $79 amid strong Asian demand

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered below $79 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as investors look to crude demand growth in Asia next year to offset a sluggish U.S. economy.
.....

Traders are trying to anticipate the strength of the global economic recovery and how much crude demand may grow during the next 12 months.

The International Energy Agency, which advises 28 member countries on energy policy, expects crude demand to grow next year, led by emerging economies such as China and India while developed countries stagnant.
.....

In other Nymex trading, heating oil fell 0.70 cent to $2.03 a gallon. Gasoline for December delivery dropped 1.29 cents to $1.97 a gallon. Natural gas for December delivery was steady at $4.61 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Buffett Raises Berkshire’s Wal-Mart Stake, Adds Exxon, Nestle

Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett’sBerkshire Hathaway Inc. took stakes in Exxon Mobil Corp. and Nestle SA, betting on the world’s biggest oil and food companies.

Berkshire held about 1.28 million Exxon shares and 3.4 million American depositary receipts of Nestle at the end of the third quarter, the Omaha, Nebraska-based company said in a regulatory filing yesterday. The stake in Irving, Texas-based Exxon would be worth about $95 million, based on yesterday’s stock price, while the Nestle holding would be valued at $161.5 million. Berkshire also raised its stake in Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the largest retailer.
.....


Buffett is drawing down Berkshire’s cash hoard to invest in some of the world’s biggest firms as credit markets improve. The $2.23 billion spent on stocks in the three months ended Sept. 30 is the most in a year and allowed Berkshire to add a stake in insurer Travelers Cos. and increase its holding of Wells Fargo & Co. Buffett agreed this month to take over Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp., the No. 1 U.S. railroad, for $26 billion.
.....

Stock picks by Buffett, the second-richest American, are watched by mutual funds and individuals looking for clues about his investment strategy. Berkshire’s biggest stockholding is an investment in Coca-Cola Co. worth about $10.7 billion. The firm’s holding in Walmart rose 90 percent in the third quarter and is valued at about $2 billion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arfKjg0_c8xs&pos=7

[ozymandius]

5. Millions may have to repay part of stimulus tax credit

Some 15.4 million taxpayers could receive smaller refunds than they expected or owe taxes next year because they did not have enough money withheld from their paychecks as part of the Making Work Pay tax credit program, according to a report issued Monday.

The tax credit advocated by President Obama and enacted in February as part of the $787 billion economic stimulus plan lowered taxes for all but the nation's highest wage earners. It cut payments by as much as $400 for individuals and up to $800 for couples. Most workers started receiving the tax credit earlier this year as small reductions in the amount of taxes withheld from their paychecks.

But federal tax tables that guide those withholdings did not account for some wage earners whose personal situations complicated the tax credit calculation. That category included some workers with more than one job, some married couples in which both spouses work, and some Social Security recipients with jobs.
.....

In addition, an undetermined number of workers eligible for the Making Work Pay tax credit will also receive other tax credits passed as part of the stimulus plan, including credits for education, energy efficiency, sales tax paid for cars and a tax credit for first-time homeowners. Those credits should further reduce the number of taxpayers left with greater tax liability than they expected, IRS spokesman Eric Smith said.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/16/AR2009111603744.html?hpid=moreheadlines

[ozymandius]

6. Revamped GM loses $1.2 billion

General Motors lost $1.2 billion in the first 83 days after it emerged from bankruptcy protection in July, the company announced Monday.

But officials with the nation's largest automaker said the company is far healthier than it was before it was rescued by the U.S. government because it has pared its long-term debt and operating costs.

It will begin repaying its debt to the United States next month, years earlier than required, the company said. It plans to return $1 billion per quarter until the $6.7 billion loan is repaid.
.....

The company expects to have negative net cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2009, because of payments of $2.8 billion in a settlement with parts supplier Delphi; continuing restructuring costs; and repayments of government loans to the United States, Canada and Germany.

But the vast global company is significantly more stable.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/16/AR2009111600919.html

[ozymandius]

7. America's Newest Land Baron: FDIC

.....
For more than a year, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has been seeking a buyer for 36 partially built condos it inherited from a high-flying, short-lived Atlanta bank. The agency has been fending off vandals, haggling with architects and uncovering the developer's blunders, all in a bid to dispose of this condo project, just one of the 2,554 foreclosed assets dumped onto its books. "These are properties with a bad story," says Jim Gallagher, a senior official in the FDIC's Division of Resolutions and Receiverships. "What we're trying to sell is something that is rundown or not completed or has some property damage."

The financial crisis started with Americans buying homes they couldn't afford. It is ending with the government struggling to sell buildings it never wanted.
.....

In the past two years, the FDIC has taken over 150 failed banks. In the process, it has seized more than 5,000 houses, subdivisions, buildings, parcels and other foreclosed assets. The current backlog of property stuck on the agency's books, with an appraised value of $1.8 billion, ranges from an $18,700 clapboard home with stained carpets in Birmingham, Ala., to a $1.7 million mountainside lodge with a heated driveway in Steamboat Springs, Colo.

Taxpayers will be grappling with this flotsam for years to come, one example of how the crisis will linger long after the economy begins to revive. At a recent FDIC auction in Atlanta, the agency offered a four-unit condo building it had already sold once before -- after the savings-and-loan crisis two decades ago.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125840904423151209.html

[Tansy_Gold]

16. ". . . after the savings-and-loan crisis of two decades ago."

Which, we all know, was brought to us by the first boooooooooosh.

The fact that they are selling the same property again ought to tell us -- well, those of us who don't ALREADY know this -- that we're dealing with fiscal insanity.

I think we should start trying some of these financial corporations with capital (pun intended) crimes, and if they're found guilty they should be stripped of their rights -- including the right to make a profit off their crimes, same as "real people" -- and/or simply executed.

If, on the other hand, the trial process determines that corporations are NOT "persons," then they should be stripped of those rights that are designated as inhering to human beings.


Disclaimer: It's early, I'm buried in work, and probably not thinking straight. Oh, yeah, and it's cold in central Arizona.



Tansy Gold, whose brain freezes at about 60 degrees and it's 54 right now. . . .

[Demeter]

17. Obvious Solution: Public Housing

Finish building it, and make Section 8 Co-operatives out of these abandoned projects.

[ozymandius]

8. Bank of America Foreclosure Shenanigans?

Mind you - these are anonymous sources. However the process makes sense in that BoA looks better on paper and the sales activity skews home sale data.

About a week ago, I got this message from a reader:

I heard a rumor from a very well placed source that BOFA will foreclose 500,000 houses over the next 10 months. They plan to move these houses very aggressively; they will go to auction 90 days from foreclosure if they are not sold by then. Someone else, very highly placed in Fanny Mae, confirmed this and said there are at least that many again in the rest of the banking system.

Now I will be honest, I have no idea whether this is true, and when I ran it by my investors buddies, the reaction I got was incredulity “Why would BofA want to shoot itself in the foot?” was typical.

But what does “BofA” mean in the message? Is it “BofA as lender who holds the mortgages on its books” or is it “BofA as servicer, who profits handsomely from foreclosures?” Remember, the rationale for buying Countrywide was to get hold of its servicing operation. And there has a good deal of evidence that regulators are tolerating some lax valuations on mortgages. Moreover, more aggressive liquidations might be seen, at least initially, as a plus by investors. Recall when banks first started taking subprime-related writedowns, the assumption was they were putting the losses behind them. And ironically, it seemed that with each quarter, the writeoffs kept getting bigger, yet the party line each time was, “Ah yes, they have really cleaned house, now haven’t they?”

Today, I got this message from a contact in Texas:

When I went to the bankruptcy / foreclosure auctions here a few weeks ago I found out that the whole thing is a charade. Bank of America (for instance) auctions off houses that have gone into foreclosure for the amount owed plus any carrying costs which usually makes the auction price higher than what was owed. A pre-bid was submitted by Bank of America Home Loan Servicing (the rename for Countrywide) in the exact amount of the auction minimum (mortgage owed plus carrying costs). No one else bids so the house is “sold” by Bank of America to Bank of America Home Loan Servicing. In essence, the property is simply transferred from one division to another so that clear title is established. But this is counted as an existing home sale which artificially inflates existing home sales numbers. This is what was happening for most of the 102 BAC mortgages and the 130 Wells Fargo mortgages. For the house I “rent” where the original mortgage was with Countrywide (and then transferred to B of A when B of A bought the property) this is simply a process for getting the house off of B of A’s books and back on Countrywide’s books (now BAC Home Loan Servicing). As I said, it is all charade or smoke-and-mirrors or a shell game.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/11/bank-of-america-foreclosure-shenanigans.html

more at link...

[Po_d Mainiac]

18. None of the home sales numbers made any sense...If this is true,

(and it fits the SOP of the banksters) things are a bit clearer now. :grr:

[Demeter]

20. I'm Sure Timmy and Ben and all the Goldman Staff Are "Helping"

Bastards.

And numbers have been making no sense for so long, I'm amazed anybody even bothers to go through the motions anymore.

[Ghost Dog]

31. If it's any consolation, let's confess to this:

EU lets its members fudge statistics

That a country's macroeconomic figures are susceptible to manipulation and exploitation for political purposes is no secret. But Greece's deficit situation takes "there's lies, damned lies and statistics" to a whole new level.

Though it's easy – and indeed right – to condemn Greek administrations for establishing a tradition of what in Athens is referred to as "creative statistics", the latest episode in the country's deficit saga sheds new light on the EU's failure to scrutinise member states' economies.

The recent "disclosure" by the newly elected Greek government that the country's budget deficit is estimated at a whopping 12.7% of its GDP sent chills down the European commission's spine. Greece is one of 14 member states to have excessive deficits, in violation of the stability and growth pact, which demands that EU countries keep them below 3%. The country is an outlier not because it has a high deficit, but because its outgoing administration was estimating it to be 6% only a month and a half ago.

What should concern us most is not that either the outgoing Greek administration or the new one, or both, concealed the truth about this figure. What should concern us is that they can do that. And, indeed, that any member state can.

Which brings us to the crux of the matter: the EU allocates or withholds funding according to such figures as a country's deficit. New members are admitted depending on their deficits, among other things. Statistics lay at the heart of much of united Europe's processes, agreements and functions. One of the strongest currencies in the world depends on them. But statistics can lie.

Eurostat, the EU's independent statistical service, is alarmingly toothless. Its iterated mission is to "to provide the EU with a high-quality statistical information service". How can it achieve this most crucial task if it has only the data national governments give to work with? It is neither equipped nor allowed to collect crude data from member states. It would be an overwhelmingly costly task, and would mean that EU members would surrender more of their national sovereignty to the union's central apparatus.

/... continues, comments... http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/16/greece-eu-eurostat-statistics-fudge

I read that... Uh. No, on second thoughts, self-censored. :hi:

[Demeter]

19. Getting a Clear Title Is Important

Our co-op turned condo has been trying to sell units that the owners walked away from, and NCB, the original holder of the blanket mortgage, refused to clear title and the sales fell through, costing us to recompense the would-be buyers. NCB wouldn't settle for what they got out of the process, which was so much lower than what they were owed...

The bastards think we can just go pay them off at their price, and eat the loss. It's a really sticky situation that is unfolding as I type this.

Board meeting tonight--details tomorrow.

[FBaggins]

29. How did you switch from co-op to condo...

...without dumping the mortgage company?

Wasn't there one master mortgage that the co-op owed as a group? If so, how can you switch to condo ownership without paying off (or otherwise settling) that mortgage and replacing it with mortgages on the individual units?

[Demeter]

34. Switching from Co-op to Condo

We arranged timing so that enough people would convert (get individual mortgages or pay off their portion of the blanket mortgage) simultaneously, or near enough, their money would be pooled with a small loan for those who didn't/couldn't convert (the mini-co-op).

Paid off the whole blanket, now it's every man for himself, except the mini-co-op which pays off the small loan.

The foreclosed, bankrupt, etc are of course all in the mini-co-op, but the asshole NCB had shareloans with the tenants of these units--unsecured notes, I think, issued when they bought into the co-op.

It is these shareloans that are the issue.

[FBaggins]

36. They generally aren't unsecured.

The co-op owns the property and has a master mortgage. When someone buys into the co-op, they are buying a share of that total ownership of the property. The loan to purchase that partial ownership is secured by the ownership interest in the property.

There isn't a mortgage filed, but a UCC filing has essentially the same effect (though they likely required the borrowers to turn over their co-op stock certificate)

There aren't many lenders who offer this kind of financing. NCB may be the only game in town.

[Demeter]

47. NCB Was The Only Game in Town for Share Loans

then some brave private banks went into it, long after we decided to get out of the co-op mode.

National Cooperative Bank is so badly run, they make the Fed look organized. All they want to do is service loans, I think. They securitized and sold all the loans they originated, it seems. There doesn't seem to be anyone really in charge capable of making decisions...that will talk to us, in any event.

The shareloans were secondary to the primary interest, which is the co-op, or the condo association that took over.

But when the debtor is bankrupt, and the proceeds only cover the primary lien, then the secondary is out of luck, and might as well have been unsecured....

[FBaggins]

48. Are you sure that's right?

The shareloans aren't secondary to the primary interest... they're really loans on different things. The mortgage uses the real estate as collateral (owned by the co-op corporation) and the other uses partial ownership in that corporation as collateral. There is no first and second place as there would be in a mortgage and a home equity line.

It's this "mini co-op" that confuses me. I was under the impression that all loans that used ownership in the co-op as collateral had to be paid off before you could convert to condo in the first place.

There are cases (as with unpaid "rent" vs unpaid share loans) that the co-op's interests come first (that's one of the few advantages of a co-op in the first place), but if all that's left is a "mini co-op" of those units that have gone under... then the only ownership of that co-op are the the remaining shares... which have a lien to the lender (if not held outright by them at this point).

[Roland99]

39. Still trying to keep the sales bubble intact. wow.

[Roland99]

40. Mortgage delinquencies hit another record in 3Q

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Mortgage-delinquencies-hit-apf-3335040402.html

For the three months ended Sept. 30, 6.25 percent of U.S. mortgage loans were 60 or more days past due, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion. That's up 58 percent from 3.96 percent a year ago.

Being two months behind is considered a first step toward foreclosure, because it's so hard to catch up with payments at that point.

The rate was up 7.6 percent from the second quarter. That's a much smaller jump than the 11.3 percent rise in the second quarter from the first, and the 14 percent leap seen in the quarter before that.

While the slowing growth rate is a positive sign, the increase shows there's still a lot of problematic mortgages out there, said F.J. Guarrera, vice president of TransUnion's financial services division. The company doesn't expect the figure to start declining until the middle of 2010.

Ayup....Roubini really nailed this one with a wide L-shaped recession.

[snot]

43. i.m.h.o.,

these descriptions seem garbled.

There are lots of reasons why foreclosing banks take properties back into a subsidiary rather than directly into the bank itself. For starters, the bank may not know exactly what it might be getting -- what hidden hazards or other liabilities may come with the property. At some point, it's to everyone's benefit to stop accruing losses on a loan that's in default and will probably never be fully paid; but the bank doesn't want to become responsible for the property until they've had a chance to make sure it'll be worth it.

On another hand, if it turns out the subsidiary has been overpaying for such properties, eventually it will become bankrupt. Any payments it made to the bank during the periods applicable for fraudulent or preferential transfers would become subject to disgorgement (i.e., the bank would have to give the payment back). Etc.

Just sayin,' there are a LOT of factors involved here that the writers may not fully understand. In-depth analysis is certainly warranted, but I don't think this is something you can eyeball and reach a quick conclusion about.

[Festivito]

9. Debt: 11/13/2009 11,991,506,876,413.07 (UP 287,340,515.21) (Fri)

(Debt lower, FICA higher. Small amounts. Good day!)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,593,746,136,388.96 + 4,397,760,740,024.11
DOWN 263,776,071.91 + UP 551,116,587.12

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,934,238 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,941.78.
A family of three owes $116,825.34. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 3,647,753,503.90.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,796,611,019.66.
The average for the last 31 days would be 2,706,397,760.96.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 31 reports in 44 days of FY2010 averaging 2.63B$ per report, 1.86B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,164 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/13/2009 11,991,506,876,413.07 BHO (UP 1,364,629,827,499.99 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,081,677,872,901.30 ------------* * BHO
Endof10 +0,677,555,082,022.15 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/23/2009 -000,105,634,856.79 ---
10/26/2009 -000,680,933,964.04 --- Mon
10/27/2009 +000,626,474,250.98 ------------********
10/28/2009 +000,798,039,832.64 ------------********
10/29/2009 -019,769,093,363.09 -
10/30/2009 +031,206,306,633.43 ------------**********
11/02/2009 +091,997,621,963.98 ------------********** Mon
11/03/2009 +000,189,596,548.58 ------------********
11/04/2009 -000,084,777,046.07 ----
11/05/2009 +008,148,647,528.82 ------------*********
11/06/2009 -000,072,128,565.19 ----
11/09/2009 +000,009,587,108.80 ------------****** Mon
11/10/2009 +000,298,454,946.90 ------------********
11/12/2009 +005,635,979,422.58 ------------*********
11/13/2009 -000,263,776,071.91 ---

117,934,364,369.62 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4148092&mesg_id=4148199

[fasttense]

10. A most excellent Toon. Thanks Ozy. n/t

[ozymandius]

12. Thanks!

I appreciate it. I foresee Geithner NY Fed cartoons in the near future. Those will certainly be fun as they showcase the pathetic intellectual lightweight of our Treasury Secretary.

[Tansy_Gold]

27. "Lightweight"??

You give him too much credit.

More like featherweight or flyweight or dust-mote-weight.

IOW, Tansy Gold thinks Timmeh is TSTL.


And certainly TSTBSOTUST



TG

[Demeter]

35. Translation, Please!

You know I don't speak Greek

Excharisto! σας ευχαριστώ!

[Ghost Dog]

38. Translation:

:)

1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9YI7wUFl0w
2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tX_ZCJWijtc

(more or less). I don't spek Grik either. Pero nos entendemos.

[Tansy_Gold]

42. Translation

Too
Stupid
To
Be
Secretary
Of
The
United
States'
Treasury.



Sheesh. :evilgrin:


I mean, you really have to wonder how some of these people manage to remember how to breathe or swallow or perform other . . . . .bodily functions.



TG

[Ghost Dog]

44. Uh huh.

:buddahlike:

(edited the above for clarity).

:smoke: :evilgrin:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1pqUKWfFl4

... Also:

(Los Ángeles): 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_dG3FR7YgU
2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6USU93KPSUc&feature=related
3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aq7EnZY5L8Y&feature=related

BTW, I would like to, uh, plasmar, place on record, here my best wishes for Waterman and family: Indoor cat, seems, for a while. Will escape, no doubt...

Meditating, here, beside (virtually) your lake. Thanks for all the food for thought, jefe.

[Demeter]

21. On the Cutting Edge of Irony

Took Obama long enough--and it's only getting a toe wet in the swamp that the Bushes and Reagan dug and flooded.

[ozymandius]

11. Special Inspector General: NY Fed Screwed Up AIG Bailout

From Ritholtz:

No surprise here: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in a desperate headlong rush to rescue American International Group, screwed the pooch. Despite holding all of the cards, cash and power, they still managed to manuver themselves into a corner with “little negotiating room.”
.....

In other words, the deal that was cut in November 2008 with AIGs counter-party banks resulted in those banks being paid off in full for high risk credit-market bets.

Had AIG gone bankrupt, these firms would have recieved pennies on the dollar. The banks that benefited the most included Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Merrill Lynch and large French banks Société Générale and Calyon. (See table below)

The New York Fed said its goal was to “prevent a system-wide collapse” and not obtain the best deal possible. So they got played for patsies.

Stupid and pathetic.

Much more at link...

BTW - who was President of the New York Fed then? The fact that President Obama still has him on payroll is twice the embarrassment.

[Demeter]

22. But..Bu..But that's All Part of the PLAN!

whine whine whimper...after all, it wouldn't be SAFE to let the financial giants, those hollowed out, papier-mache figures, to go bust!

Blankfein would have to collect unemployment! How could he do "God's work" then?


I think I've got my rant back...too bad for the rest of the world.

[amandabeech]

46. I can't figure out why Obama doesn't think that Timmy needs to spend some time with his family

in the house in New York that he can't sell for the price he wants.

What does it take? This guy cheated on his taxes and fouled up AIG. Why is he still advising the President?

[Ghost Dog]

13. Dollar rebounds broadly as market digests Bernanke

Tue Nov 17, 2009 5:56am EST

* Dollar recovers from 15-month low as mkt digests Bernanke

* Euro once again unable to hold above $1.50

* China's Hu makes no mention of yuan after Obama meeting

LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The dollar rebounded on Tuesday from Monday's 15-month lows after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made rare comments about the dollar, encouraging traders to trim longer-term bets against the currency.

Bernanke surprised investors on Monday when he said the central bank was "attentive to implications of changes in the value of the dollar", although he reiterated that interest rates would remain exceptionally low for an "extended period".

Some interpreted his remarks on the dollar, which is usually the purview of Treasury, as a sign the Fed is worried further depreciation could stoke inflation.

...

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet also spoke on currencies on Tuesday, reiterating his oft-repeated views that a strong dollar is in the U.S. interest and that the euro was never intended to be a reserve currency. .

"He (Bernanke) was tying to emphasise to the market what Fed thinking is going into the last few months of the asset purchase scheme. They have to talk well ahead to give no shocks to the market, and that's what Bernanke was trying to do," said Peter Frank, senior currency strategist at Societe Generale in London.

Frank said the dollar remained in a longer-term downtrend but said Bernanke's remarks were probably aimed more at "smoothing" its decline than reversing it, and that traders are "a little uncomfortable" being long of euros above $1.50.

...

The dollar rose more sharply against so-called "commodity currencies" like the Australian and Canadian dollars, gaining 1 percent against both as oil, metals, and equity prices fell across the board.

Bernanke's comments on Monday came as U.S. President Barack Obama was in China, although few expect the visit to result in any near-term changes in Beijing's foreign exchange policy.

Chinese President Hu Jintao made no mention of the yuan after meeting Obama, and the U.S. leader only said he was pleased with China's commitment on moving towards more market-oriented exchange rates.

Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed, also said on Monday the dollar's decline so far has not been disorderly although the commitment to keep rates low for an extended period could create the potential for carry trades.

And Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said the low interest rate policy was meant to encourage investors to move into riskier assets and that there are no signs yet of an asset bubble building up in the United States.

"It's very unusual for the Fed to even comment on the dollar, so in that respect the market was caught by surprise," said Johan Javeus, strategist at SEB in Stockholm.

But for the dollar to reverse its long-term downtrend, China needed to take greater steps toward a more flexible currency regime, or the Fed had to signal rate hikes are imminent.

"Neither of those prerequisites have been fulfilled, so the controlled, grinding lower of the dollar will continue," Javeus said.

/.. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINLH36759020091117?rpc=44&sp=true

/More: http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE5AF3SS20091117

[Ghost Dog]

14. GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks slip from 2009 highs

Tue Nov 17, 2009 4:06am EST LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - World stocks slipped on Tuesday from the previous day's 2009 high and oil and gold fell as investors locked in gains from a strong rally, while the dollar edged higher from its 15-month lows.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates near zero for some time had been weighing on the dollar, fuelling gains in dollar-priced raw materials and related commodity shares.

On Tuesday, investors stepped back from risk trades, mindful that a period of consolidation was probable given that world stocks, measured by MSCI .MIWD00000PUS, rallied nearly 75 percent since their March troughs.

"Despite the fundamentals remaining upbeat, a degree of consolidation is likely ... as equity traders pause for breath," IG Markets analyst Ben Potter noted. "There is however little to suggest that this will turn into any full-blown bout of profit taking ... The overall view seems to remain that with the economic recovery underway and government stimulus attempts ongoing, there are few reasons out there to be avoiding stocks."

MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS fell 0.3 percent, having hit its highest since September 2008 on Monday. The FTSEurofirst 300 index .FTEU3 fell 0.3 percent, after hitting a 13-month high in the previous session. Emerging stocks .MSCIEF fell a quarter percent.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCNLH12997020091117?rpc=44

[Demeter]

23. OOh! Can We ALL Digest Bernanke?

I read in a murder mystery it takes two acids...HF and HNO3 or HCl? to dissolve flesh and bone....

Or NaOH to take out the flesh, then HF to do the bone...

They can ask the Gottis to lend them their expert. Eveidently it was the way to make people disappear..

[Ghost Dog]

32. Careful. The humorless censors of the Inquisition will be on your case,

Earth Goddess.

[tclambert]

50. I foresee an uptick in Pepto-Bismol stock.

No, can't. It's just one of many products from Procter and Gamble. I don't want to invest in them all. This is part of the reason I want to split up the big companies. I want to be able to fine tune my investments, not invest in Giant Megalomania Corp. because I like ONE of their products.

In the TV show Breaking Bad they supposedly used hydrofluoric acid alone to dissolve a body. The gag was the idiot partner couldn't find a big enough plastic vat in which to do the deed so he tried to be clever and use his bathtub. Unfortunately, while HF doesn't react with plastic, it does with glass, ceramics, and metals. It ate right through the tub, floor, and ceiling of the floor below. It made a horrible, though funny mess.

[Ghost Dog]

15. IMF head eyes global currency change, presses on yuan

Tue Nov 17, 2009 5:34am EST BEIJING, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The imperative of greater global currency stability means the world can no longer rely, as it has done since the end of the gold standard, on a currency issued by a single country, the head of the IMF said on Tuesday.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, restated his view that a new global currency might evolve out of the Special Drawing Right, the Fund's in-house unit of account.

"That probably has to be a basket," Strauss-Kahn said of the eventual replacement for the dollar. "In a globalised world there is no domestic solution," he told a forum.

Speaking later at a news conference, Strauss-Kahn reiterated the message that has been a constant refrain during his visit -- that China needs a stronger yuan as part of a package of policies to help rebalance its economy by promoting domestic demand.

"For us, because it just is consistent with the new economic policy in China, the sooner the better. How fast? It will take time. It is not something which will change in one step overnight," Strauss-Kahn said.

China has kept the yuan, also known as the renminbi (RMB), pegged around 6.83 per dollar since July 2008, following a 21 percent rise over the previous three years, to help its exporters weather the global economic crisis.

"We do believe firmly in the IMF that the RMB is undervalued and that it is not only in the interests of the global economy but also in the interests of China to have a revaluation of the currency," he said.

An undervalued currency introduces economic distortions, which might confer certain advantages but at a cost to other parts of the economy, Strauss-Kahn said. In China's case, a cheap currency gives it an edge on trade but scrambles price signals, leading to wrong decisions about investment in the long run.

"It is now time for China, having accumulated a lot of advantages from an undervalued currency, to look more forward to investment and long-term stability, and this long-term stability goes with getting rid of this distortion," he said.

IMBALANCES

Washington in particular has been vocal in arguing that an undervalued yuan is exacerbating economic imbalances that were a root cause of the global financial crisis.

But He Yafei, China's vice foreign minister, defended China's policy of keeping the yuan on a tight rein. "In the process of tackling the financial crisis, keeping the RMB stable not only was a contribution to fighting the crisis but also helped stabilise global financial markets," he said.

...

Strauss-Kahn expressed concern that political willingness to overhaul the international monetary system will falter if, in a year's time, the visible signs of the economic crisis have faded. He said the momentum to cooperate had already eased somewhat, six months after the London summit of the Group of 20 agreed on a need for change to ensure a more stable global financial order.

A former IMF chief, Michel Camdessus, said time was of the essence to embark on reform of the global monetary system. "This favourable window of opportunity is there. It will not stay open forever," he told the forum at which Strauss-Kahn spoke.

Camdessus gave broad backing to a recent proposal by Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan that an expanded SDR could eventually replace the dollar as the global reserve currency.

"Our Chinese friends mean business," he said of Zhou's plan.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINPEK20416820091117?rpc=44&sp=true

[UpInArms]

24. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 75.297 Change +0.387 (+0.50%)

Daily Sound Bites

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/daily_sound_bites/2009-11-17-1304-Daily_Sound_Bites.html



...more...

Greenback Bolstered by Ramped Up Rhetoric

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/morning_slices/2009-11-17-1118-Greenback_Bolstered_by_Ramped_Up.html

Quite a turn of events on Tuesday, with the market rejecting Monday’s currency gains and comfortably shifting back into the USD. All currencies are lower on the day against the Greenback, with the Canadian and Australian Dollars getting hit the hardest thus far. It seems as though the primary driver of price action stems from the USD supportive comments from Fed Chair Bernanke on Monday who said that the Fed would help to ensure USD strength. The US supportive rhetoric has certainly graduated to a new level of intensity over the past few weeks, with even Treasury Secretary Geithner taking a firmer tone on his USD stance. Elsewhere, ECB President Trichet has come out in support of the buck, while also stating that the Euro was never intended as reserve currency. Attempts to undermine the Dollar overnight have also failed after Ex-PBOC adviser Yu expressed a failed confidence in the USD.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

37. Mmmmm... Ommmm...

Euro extends losses, sheds 1 pct vs U.S. dollar
Tue Nov 17, 2009 11:54am EST (Repeats story unchanged, to attach to news alert)

NEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The euro fell 1 percent against the dollar on Tuesday amid broad strength in the U.S. currency.

Comments on Monday from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on the dollar contributed to a dulling of risk appetite and caused investors to cut bets against the dollar and in favor of higher-yielding currencies and assets.

/.. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN1733007420091117?rpc=44

---

Europe shares end lower after Monday's 13-wk high
Tue Nov 17, 2009 11:36am EST

Email | Print |
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LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - European shares ended lower on Tuesday after hitting a 13-month high in the previous session, with a smaller-than-expected rise in U.S. industrial production hitting sentiment and putting pressure on miners and financials.

The FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of top European shares provisionally ended 0.4 percent lower at 1,030.02 points after rising 1.5 percent on Monday. The index is up 24 percent in 2009 and has surged 60 percent since hitting a record low in March.

Banks were among the top losers, with Standard Chartered (STAN.L), HSBC (HSBA.L), Barclays (BARC.L), BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA), Societe Generale (SOGN.PA), Credit Agricole (CAGR.PA) and UBS (UBSN.VX) falling 1.2 to 3.6 percent.

"The strength of the market is diminishing and the number of stocks that push the market higher is gradually falling," said Koen De Leus, economist at KBC Securities.

"Now you don't have any support from company earnings so the market is going to be dependent on macro-economic data."

Federal Reserve data showed U.S. industrial production rose by a smaller-than-expected 0.1 percent in October as auto manufacturers scaled back following the end of the "cash for clunkers" incentive.

Across Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 index .FTSE, Germany's DAX .GDAXI and France's CAC 40 .FCHI fell 0.4 to 1 percent.

/. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCALH68335520091117?rpc=44

---

Banks, policymakers spar over new rules

Tue Nov 17, 2009 11:34am EST LONDON/FRANKFURT, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Big banks stepped up warnings on Tuesday that tightening capital rules too soon could stall economic recovery, but policymakers said the bailed out sector cannot rely on taxpayers again in future.

Regulators are drafting tough rules that will force banks to hold far more capital and lessen the need for the kind of public rescues seen during the credit crunch.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCNLH57567520091117?rpc=44

---

‘All Systems Go’ for Dollar Slide on Bernanke Speech, RBS Says

Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar will continue to weaken against foreign currencies following Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s “dovish” speech, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.

“While the main message from the Fed is that rates remain low for an extended period the dollar will continue to slide,” Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist in Sydney, said in a note today. “Bernanke’s warning today was aimed against a rapid slide in the dollar, but all systems are go for a gradual slide.”

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=adBhOSzbHzuQ

---

(Repeat): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqIP5CeEK_c&NR=1&feature=fvwp

[DemReadingDU]

28. Geithner Singled Out In TARP Watchdog Neil Barofsky's Scathing Report On AIG Bailout

11/17/09 Geithner Singled Out In TARP Watchdog Neil Barofsky's Scathing Report On AIG Bailout

A brutal report issued Monday by a government watchdog holds Timothy Geithner -- then the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and now the nation's Treasury Secretary -- responsible for overpayments that put billions of extra tax dollars in the coffers of major Wall Street firms, most notably Goldman Sachs.

The authoritative new narrative describes how, while bailing out insurance giant AIG last fall, a team led by Geithner failed nearly every step of the way.

Instead of bargaining with AIG's numerous counterparties to resolve its billions of dollars in souring derivatives contracts, Geithner's team ended up paying top dollar for toxic assets -- "an amount far above their market value at the time," the report notes.

"There is no question that the effect of FRBNY's decisions -- indeed, the very design of the federal assistance to AIG -- was that tens of billions of dollars of Government money was funneled inexorably and directly to AIG's counterparties," the Office of the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program said.

Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and Wachovia got full value for their derivatives contracts with AIG, and taxpayers got the bill. In total, $27.1 billion of public money was transferred to companies that did business with AIG.

Throughout the bailout of AIG, the report says, the New York Fed failed to develop appropriate contingency plans; failed to properly assess the impact of its decisions; and generally engaged in negotiation strategies that were doomed to fail.

Then, after Geithner's team paid off AIG's counterparties on Wall Street, it imposed "onerous" terms on the troubled insurer, the report says.

"he decision to acquire a controlling interest in one of the world's most complex and most troubled corporations was done with almost no independent consideration of the terms of the transaction or the impact that those terms might have on the future of AIG," the report finds.

more...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/16/aig-bailout-government-ov_n_359919.html

full report, 47 pages
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/16/aig-bailout-government-ov_n_359919.html

[Roland99]

30. I was dumbfounded the day Obama picked that ****** for Treasury.

Today, I'm just stupefied he's still there.

[snot]

41. Spitzer nailed that story 8 mos. ago

at http://www.slate.com/id/2213942/

[DU GrovelBot]

33. ## PLEASE DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##

This week is our fourth quarter 2009 fund drive. Democratic Underground is
a completely independent website. We depend on donations from our members
to cover our costs. Please take a moment to donate! Thank you!

[Dr.Phool]

45. I just alerted on this robot porn.

Let's see if he gets tombstoned.

Metallic Moron Freeper!

[Ghost Dog]

49. I'm donating nothing

for as long as this unsolicited advertising continues. Broke the terms of the contract, too (I've always donated around Valentine's day).

Meanwhile, listen to this highly explanatory/inflammatory shit, why don't you'all (and buy what they sell).

Edit to add: heavy :sarcasm: :sad:

For example:

"Guess I'll be going, William Blake". http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBilW9cPfDA