STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday November 13

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday November 13, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 12, 2009

Dow... 10,197.47 -93.79 (-0.91%)
Nasdaq... 2,149.02 -17.88 (-0.83%)
S&P 500... 1,087.24 -11.27 (-1.03%)
Gold future... 1,107 -8.00 (-0.72%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.44 0.00 (0.00%)
30-Year Bond 4.39 -0.02 (-0.41%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

FHA Bailout By Taxpayers On The Way
BY MIKE SHEDLOCK

Taxpayers may as well brace for an FHA bailout. It is all but guaranteed. With current FHA practices it is likely to be a big one.

On November 5, the Richmond Register was asking What does the FHA think it is doing?

Exactly who made Bernadine Shimon think that she could buy a new house shortly after declaring bankruptcy and losing another home to foreclosure? The American taxpayer, that’s who.

Without a Federal Housing Administration willing to guarantee a $125,000-plus mortgage, this Denver-area schoolteacher’s recurring “dream of homeownership” could not come to pass. Shimon’s down payment was a tiny 3.5 percent.

This single mother is so strapped that she had to cash in her retirement savings to come up with the 3.5 percent. Her case was cited in a New York Times article about, not surprisingly, the sad shape the FHA finds itself in.

Home prices are falling precisely because people bought homes they could not afford.

Note however, the thought process of Barney Frank: We have to keep selling houses to people who cannot afford them in order to keep home prices from falling.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Warpy]

16. Poor Barney, the right's favorite whipping boy

It's amazing how powerful he was all those years the Democrats were out of power and not even part of committee meetings, none of their ideas given a hearing much less becoming law.

Actually, the banks are demanding the warm bodies propped up by taxpayer money because they're the big losers as prices fall.

[Demeter]

20. I Don't Like Barney Frank

There's something bent about his personality and his politics. I don't think he's trustworthy.

[Warpy]

24. I've been watching him ever since his days in the Mass. lege

and he's one of the few pols out there I do trust, just a little bit.

No one can skewer the right like Frank can.

[Joe Chi Minh]

25. "Note however, the thought process of Barney Frank: We have to keep

selling houses to people who cannot afford them in order to keep home prices from falling."

'That's surreal', would have been my reaction before the beginning of the Republican persecution of the Clintons, but I'm finally getting used to American politics. Though I still know instantly how such things look in the eyes of the rest of the world.

For a fleeting moment, even our UK Tories might wondered how that sounded, before ploughing ahead with Frank's line and publicising it.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Oct
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 0.0%

08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Oct
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 0.6%

08:30 Trade Balance Sep
Briefing.com -$30.0B
Consensus -$31.8B
Prior -$30.7B

09:55 Mich Sentiment-Prel Nov
Briefing.com 70.5
Consensus 71.0
Prior 70.6

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

15. Sept. trade gap widens 18.2% to $36.5 bln - trade gap percent rise biggest since Feb 99

U.S. import prices down 5.7% in past year
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Oct. imported capital goods prices up 0.2%
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Oct. export prices rise 0.3%
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Oct. nonfuel import prices up 0.4%
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Oct. import prices rise 0.7% vs 0.8% expected
8:30 a.m. Today

Sept trade gap percent rise biggest since Feb 99
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Sept. trade gap above consensus of $32.0 bln
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Sept. trade gap widens 18.2% to $36.5 bln
8:30 a.m. Today

[ozymandius]

3. Oil creeps above $77 amid US demand concerns

SINGAPORE – Oil prices crept above $77 a barrel Friday in Asia despite investor doubts about U.S. crude demand.
.....

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday in its weekly report that oil inventories rose 1.8 million barrels and gasoline stocks grew 2.5 million, both larger-than-expected increases.

Oil has bobbed between $76 and $82 for the last month as traders mull how much a high U.S. unemployment rate, which rose to 10.2 percent in October, will drag on consumer demand for crude products such as gasoline.
.....

In other Nymex trading, heating oil rose 1.25 cent to $2.00 a gallon. Gasoline for December delivery gained 1.88 cents to $1.96 a gallon. Natural gas for December delivery jumped 5.7 cents to $4.43 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Fed: banks need customer consent on overdraft fees

WASHINGTON – Banks will have to secure their customers' consent before charging large overdraft fees on ATM and debit card transactions, according to a new rule announced Thursday by the Federal Reserve.

The rule responds to complaints from consumer groups, members of Congress and other regulators that the overdraft fees are unfair because many people assume they can't spend more on a debit card than is available in their account. Instead, many banks allow the transactions to go through, then charge fees of up to $25 to $35.
.....

Under the Fed's new rule, which will take effect July 1, banks will be required to notify new and existing customers of their overdraft services and give customers the option of being covered. If customers don't "opt in," any debit or ATM transactions that overdraw their accounts will be denied, Fed officials said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091113/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fed_overdraft_fees

[Joe Chi Minh]

26. They need to do that in the UK. The Bank of Scotland would have charged me

the equivalent of $58 just for REFUSING a payment from my account exceeding my agreed overdraft, and will do in future, should I transgress again!

We have our own little banksters' demi-monde in the UK. Evidently, frequently as surreal as yours. But then, I think the continental Europeans see us as an offshore outpost of the US.

[ozymandius]

5. Fed May Cause Next Crisis, Hong Kong’s Tsang Suggests

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve’s policy of keeping interest rates near zero is fueling a wave of speculative capital that may cause the next global crisis, Hong Kong’s leader said.

“I’m scared and leaders should look out,” said Donald Tsang, chief executive of the city, said in Singapore today. “America is doing exactly what Japan did last time,” he said, adding that Japan’s zero interest rate policy contributed to the 1997 Asian financial crisis and U.S. mortgage meltdown.
.....

Tsang was Hong Kong’s financial secretary during the 1997- 98 Asian crisis, when countries from South Korea to Indonesia were forced to borrow from the International Monetary Fund because of an investor exodus sparked by concerns officials couldn’t maintain the value of their currencies. Together with Hong Kong Monetary Authority chief Joseph Yam, he intervened to buy $15 billion of Hong Kong stock, successfully defending the territory’s exchange-rate peg to the dollar.

Hong Kong’s interest rates track those of the U.S. because of the currency’s peg to the dollar, which means that foreign capital flows into stocks and property. Real estate prices in the city have risen more than 25 percent this year, prompting the International Monetary Fund to warn this month of a possible bubble. Hong Kong Financial Secretary John Tsang said Nov. 4 the government was “very concerned” about the rise.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a9xbDq__Y7v4

[Demeter]

21. I Sure Would LIke to Know Why the Chicago Gang Follows Japan's Economic Policy

I would think the EU had a better model.

[ozymandius]

6. Intel settles AMD suits, but antitrust investigations by U.S., E.U. continue

The world's two biggest chipmakers, whose Silicon Valley headquarters are separated only by a few miles, have put an end to one of the high-tech industry's longest and costliest legal battles.

But Intel's agreement to pay Advance Micro Devices $1.25 billion to drop multiple lawsuits Thursday won't stop investigations by U.S. and European antitrust watchdogs. The regulators are investigating allegations Intel used bribes and bullying tactics to maintain its dominance in the highly concentrated chip industry.
.....

E.U. spokesman Jonathan Todd said the European Commission "takes note" of Intel's settlement with AMD but that it does not change Intel's duty to comply with European antitrust law. The E.U.'s competition bureau fined Intel a record $1.45 billion for alleged anticompetitive practices. Intel is fighting the fine on an appeal.

Last week, New York Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo filed a lawsuit against Intel for similar allegations. The complaint included e-mails allegedly showing that Intel agreed to billions of dollars in rebates to computer makers such as Dell to stop them from using AMD's chips.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/12/AR2009111210555.html?hpid=sec-tech

[Festivito]

7. Debt: 11/10/2009 11,986,954,033,520.56 (DOWN 3,068,507,844.23) (Tue)

(Debt a little higher, FICA side down. No report was posted on Veteran's day. Added extra debt-plus website link. Good day to all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,588,373,933,038.29 + 4,398,580,100,482.27
UP 298,454,946.90 + DOWN 3,366,962,791.13

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,908,318 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,930.27.
A family of three owes $116,790.81. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 4,143,397,332.37.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,038,491,377.07.
The average for the last 32 days would be 2,848,585,666.00.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 29 reports in 41 days of FY2010 averaging 2.66B$ per report, 1.88B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,167 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/10/2009 11,986,954,033,520.56 BHO (UP 1,360,076,984,607.48 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,077,125,030,008.80 ------------* BHO
Endof10 +0,686,600,876,907.62 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/21/2009 +000,260,615,642.06 ------------********
10/22/2009 -054,881,746,021.15 -
10/23/2009 -000,105,634,856.79 ---
10/26/2009 -000,680,933,964.04 --- Mon
10/27/2009 +000,626,474,250.98 ------------********
10/28/2009 +000,798,039,832.64 ------------********
10/29/2009 -019,769,093,363.09 -
10/30/2009 +031,206,306,633.43 ------------**********
11/02/2009 +091,997,621,963.98 ------------********** Mon
11/03/2009 +000,189,596,548.58 ------------********
11/04/2009 -000,084,777,046.07 ----
11/05/2009 +008,148,647,528.82 ------------*********
11/06/2009 -000,072,128,565.19 ----
11/09/2009 +000,009,587,108.80 ------------****** Mon
11/10/2009 +000,298,454,946.90 ------------********

57,941,030,639.86 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4143731&mesg_id=4144760

[Hugin]

11. U.S. Treasury Confident Congress Will Increase Debt Ceiling (Bloomberg)

By Rebecca Christie

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Obama administration is confident Congress will raise the country’s debt limit by year end to avert a showdown similar to the one that shuttered parts of the government in 1995, administration officials said.

The White House wants an increase of at least $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, according to a person familiar with the deliberations between lawmakers and the administration. Record budget deficits are pushing the national debt closer to the $12.1 trillion statutory limit.

The administration’s request, higher than a proposed increase already passed in the House of Representatives, would get the government through the November 2010 midterm congressional elections without needing another increase. Earlier this month, Treasury officials acknowledged they’ll need more borrowing room by year-end to avoid market disruptions.

“Market participants still remain on edge, especially since many have concerns over the rising debt loads that were kicked off this year,” said George Goncalves, chief fixed- income rates strategist in New York at primary dealer Cantor Fitzgerald LP.

More... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWXDnpFProiY&pos=6

[CatholicEdHead]

19. This will probably happen without much fanfare

and it will probably not be the last time it needs to be raised.

[ozymandius]

8. Home-Purchase Index Plunges

Found at The Big Picture:

So much for the Housing Rebound:

“Mortgage applications to purchase homes in the U.S. plunged last week to the lowest level in almost nine years as Americans waited for the outcome of deliberations to extend a government tax credit.

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications to buy a house dropped 12 percent in the week ended Nov. 6 to 220.9, the lowest level since Dec. 2000. The group’s refinancing gauge rose 11 percent as interest rates decreased, pushing the overall index up 3.2 percent.

The drop in buying plans points to the risk that the recent stabilization in housing will unravel without government help. In a bid to sustain the recovery, Congress passed and the administration signed a bill last week to extend jobless benefits and incentives for first-time homebuyers, adding a provision that also made funds available to current owners.”

If stabilization comes only through government subsidies and artificially propped up home prices, is it truly stabilization?

Source from Bloomberg

[Demeter]

22. Of course it isn't stabilization

It's inflation of assets and the money supply, destruction of the dollar, and ruination of the nation.

[ozymandius]

9. Have fun today, folks.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
Slow/dropped connection issues continue to be a problem.

:hi:

[Hugin]

10. Have a safe one...

:hi:

Friday November 13th... :eek:

[Tansy_Gold]

17. I love Friday the 13ths

They've been especially lucky for me.



Tansy Golld, the happy pagan

[Hugin]

18. So far this year...

I was called to Jury Duty on Friday the 13th... I began serving my term on the next Friday the 13th. (A month later.)

I don't know if that's a 'bad' thing or not...


:hide:

[Demeter]

23. I've Noticed the Same

and the only time I make progress is when Mercury is retrograde...


Demeter, born under a backwards star.

[AnneD]

14. I am busier than a one armed paper hanger today....

came in for a quick kick. Good luck gang.


:hi:

[Joe Chi Minh]

27. Heck, Anne. That would be difficult enough with three hands.... To me, anyway.

[AnneD]

28. Why do you think....

paint is more popular ;)

[Joe Chi Minh]

29. I don't think, Anne. I know! We wall-papered our small bathroom; after

a grotesque fashion.....

[DemReadingDU]

12. Video: Minyanville Kevin Depew Q&A With Robert Prechter

11/11/09 Minyanville Kevin Depew Q&A With Robert Prechter
Few market commentators have the ability to inspire the range of emotion that Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International does. The mere mention of his name is enough to generate controversy. Whenever someone mentions stock market "perma-bears" they almost certainly have Prechter among those in mind, a label that I believe widely misses its mark.

Last week Robert Prechter was kind enough to sit down with me for a wide-ranging interview to discuss, among other things, the mechanics of what he believes will be an intensifying economic depression next year, how to prepare for it, the potential for the US dollar to form a major bottom and his Socionomics hypothesis that social mood drives social action as opposed to social action driving social mood.

click for 20 minute interview
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/prechter-bob-depew-kevin-bears-elliott-wave-international/index/a/25382

[UpInArms]

13. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 75.430 Change -0.166 (-0.21%)

DAILY SOUND BITES

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/daily_sound_bites/2009-11-13-1031-Daily_Sound_Bites.html



...more...

Euro Halts Three-Day Decline as Economy Emerges From Recession, British Pound Rally Supported by 20-Day SMA

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/us_open/2009-11-13-1139-Euro_Halts_Three_Day_Decline_as.html

The euro advanced to a high of 1.4903 during the overnight trade, but failed to hold ground and slipped back to the 20-Day SMA (1.4885) as economic activity in the region expanded less-than-expected in the third quarter. The advanced GDP reading for the Euro-Zone showed the growth rate increased 0.4% from the second quarter amid projections for a 0.5% rise, with the annualized rate tumbling 4.1% from the previous year versus forecasts for a 3.9% drop.

At the same time, Germany’s third quarter GDP expanded 0.7% after rising 0.4% during the three-months through June, while the annualized rate slipped 4.8% from the previous year, which was largely in-line with market expectations. As the Euro-Zone emerges from the worst recession since the post-war period, expectations for higher interest rates in the region may continue to support the rally in the EUR/USD however, economic advisors to the Germany government expects the European Central Bank to scale back its emergency programs before the Governing Council begins to raise borrowing costs throughout the economy. Moreover, the group said that the economic recovery in Germany remains fragile as the expansion in monetary and fiscal policy continues to support economic activity in the region, and went onto say that “abrupt” changes in foreign exchange rates could hamper the prospects for the recovery as global trade conditions remain weak.

The British pound strengthened against the greenback for the second-day to reach a high of 1.6699, and the currency may continue to trend higher throughout the month as the rally remains well supported by the 20-Day SMA (1.6518). Nevertheless, the Financial Times said that Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling was surprised when Bank of England Governor Mervyn King projected economic activity to expand 4.0% in 2011 during the central bank’s quarter inflation report, and sees a risk that Mr. Darling may hold a lower outlook for future growth than the BoE in the Pre-Budget report due out in the following month. Meanwhile, Financial Services Authority Managing Director of Supervision Jon Pain held a cautious outlook for the U.K. mortgage market and said that credit lending should not be influenced by a handful of large financial institutions, and said that “new entrants into the mortgage market should be encouraged if they have a sustainable business model.”

The greenback weakened across the board following the rise in risk appetite, and the reserve currency may face increased selling pressures going into the North American session as equity futures foreshadow a higher open for the U.S. market. Nevertheless, the economic docket is expected to reinforce an improved outlook for private spending as economists forecast the U. of Michigan confidence survey to increase to 71.0 in November from 70.6 in the previous month. At the same time, import price are forecasted to rise 1.0% in October, with the annualized rate projected to fall 5.5% from the previous year, while the trade deficit is anticipated to widen to $31.8B from $30.7B in August.

...more...