H1N1 death toll estimated at 3,900 in U.S.

[Barack_America]

Source: CNN

Atlanta, Georgia (CNN) -- Nearly 3,900 people, including about 540 children, are believed to have died from the H1N1 flu in the first six months of the epidemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday.

The figure is a sharp increase from previous counts of laboratory-confirmed cases. But Dr. Anne Schuchat, the director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said the estimate gives a "more accurate picture" of the scale of the pandemic.

The figure was based on a detailed analysis of data from several dozen districts around the country, she said. The method used to calculate the mortality figures is similar to that used to produce estimates of ordinary seasonal flu deaths, which are believed to number about 36,000 a year.

An estimated 22 million people in the United States have contracted the virus, commonly known as swine flu, resulting in about 98,000 hospitalizations through October 17, Schuchat said.

Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/11/12/h1n1.flu.deaths/

---

Also:

Reuters

Swine flu means worst flu season in 12 years in U.S.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Swine flu is causing the worst flu season in the United States since 1997, when current measurements started, and has killed an estimated 3,900 people from April to October, U.S. health officials reported on Thursday.

Monitoring from 29 of 50 states shows 1,265 deaths since the pandemic of H1N1 influenza started in April, with 145 flu deaths among children, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.

<snip>

"Nationwide, the percentage of visits to health-care providers for influenza-like illness was higher than that observed at the peak of any seasonal influenza season since ILINet (the CDC's reporting system) was implemented in its current form in 1997," the report reads.

In September and October the number of people hospitalized for flu was as high as usually seen by the end of an entire average flu season -- which runs from October through April in the United States....

More:
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE5AB53220091112

[phantom power]

1. That doesn't sound good.

[Delphinus]

2. What's happening in the Ukraine

doesn't sound good either.

As bad as it sounds, I'm grateful they finally told the truth.

[Techn0Girl]

3. Putting this into Perspectives....

Notice that the article mentions hat 36,000 people die from ordinary "seasonal" flu each year. So if we double the number of H1N1 deaths given (3900/6 months) to get a rough yearly average we get about 8000 deaths or about 23% of the deaths that ordinary seasonal flu causes.

Which would lead one to believe that H1N1 causes less overall deaths than regular seasonal flu.

[MilesColtrane]

4. Not when you consider that flu season normally lasts from November to April.

We have 3,900 deaths before the usual appearance and spread of a seasonal viral outbreak.

[customerserviceguy]

11. A Red Cross volunteer came to our office today

to give us information on H1N1. This particular virus spreads quite easily, even more so than most flu viruses. It can live for eight hours without a host, and you are contagious the day before you come down with telltale symptoms.

Add to that the fact that you are usually only sick with it for three days, but are contagious for several days after that, and you see the problem. Many, many people will spread it before they are too sick to come to work, shop, congregate, and they will come back to those activities as soon as they are feeling a bit better.

The death rate as measured so far is lower than for a regular seasonal flu, but if the incidence of infection is much greater, we may have numbers of dead that rival or exceed those seasonal flu outbreaks. In any case, more people will be miserable, and there will be more people out sick, or not shopping (as Christmas season approaches), that may take a chunk out of the economy. We need economic growth right now to be able to reduce the unemployment numbers.

[Techn0Girl]

12. Hate to break this to you but ....

... all flus and colds are contagious for some time before and after you start showing symptoms. It;s just the nature of the beasties.

[customerserviceguy]

21. I wouldn't doubt that for a minute

but most people know enough to stay away from that coughing co-worker who was out for the last three or four days. From what I've heard, the contagious period for this particular flu is fairly long by comparison.

In a recessionary economy, many workers want to get back to the job pronto, because they don't wnat to lose jobs. It might be "the perfect storm" of flu conditions.

Glad I got my vaccination. I was told that it takes two weeks to be completely effective, is that your understanding of it?

[Robb]

14. Those pooh-pooing H1N1 would do well to remember that.

The number of pediatric deaths, usually, this week in history are zero. The number we had for yesterday was 129, this new counting method says 540.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

15. And on average there are 3 deaths a year from the flu in the same time period.

How's that for perspective?

[Techn0Girl]

22. Your figures are Sinply Made up

Sorry but making up figures is a huge Fail.
36,000 die from seasonal flu each year in the U.S..
Your figure of 3 deaths in six months is simply made up nonsense.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

23. Anyone can see the astonishly low number of deaths between weeks 20 and 44.

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2007-2008/IPD20.htm

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2009-2010/IPD43.htm

Granted these are pediatric deaths, but they are really the only ones that get truly reported.

[AlienGirl]

29. Add that to the normal seasonal flu death toll, which has not yet begun in earnest

This year we will have the death toll that is normal for seasonal flu strains--which are also still a threat--PLUS the death toll from the novel H1N1.

Tucker

P.S. "Fewer", not "less".

[Chemisse]

5. That is 3900 deaths out of 22 million infected in the US

That is a rate of only 0.018 percent. The seasonal flu is just under 0.1 percent. So 18 out of 100,000 compared to 100 out of 100,000.

[Mithreal]

6. Wasn't the difference always in who it kills?

[Chemisse]

10. Yeah, originally they suggested it could be about as deadly

As seasonal flu, but infected different populations.

While it is still a danger to the young, rather than the old, it sure doesn't kill very often (if these numbers are at all accurate).

[Techn0Girl]

7. That's about the size of it :)

But there are some Chicken Littles (NOT referring to the Original poster ! - who stated all the correct stats ) out there in DUland who are calling this the "End of Days" - lol.

I've already put most of them on ignore.

Of course if this mutates into the Zombie Apocalypse I'm 10 minutes away from a walmart which I believe stocks shotguns so I should be covered. The only problem of course will be how to distinguish the reglar Walmart shoppers from the Zombies which could prove to be a problem.

[Chemisse]

9. LOL - and don't forget the brainwashed zombie employees!

The good thing about 22 million people being infected is, if it gets more deadly, they will all be immune! (Well, unless it mutates so much that it is a different antigen - so keep that Walmart plan on the back burner).

[MilesColtrane]

13. You're the one who was deriding flucount.org and the figures it was reporting...

...as intentional inflated misinformation designed to whip up fear.

Well guess what?

According to this article, flucount is UNDERREPORTING the total number of deaths. (Their U.S. total is less than half that cited in the OP.)

I haven't seen anyone refer to this epidemic as the 'End of Days'. Nice bit of hyperbole there.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

17. Ignore the last bastion of the small minded.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

16. and 1300 times more than are killed on average from the flu every year in the same time period.

[Robb]

18. You did the math

...I was avoiding. :(

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

19. I had to take off my shoes.

I just undid the velcro. :toast:

[Robb]

20. LOL nt

[gkhouston]

26. If you have that many toes, I'd hate to think how much you must pay for custom-made footwear. n/t

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

24. To be fair that is only pediatric deaths they are the only ones truly reported.

[Robb]

25. Thinking about this last night before bed

Two things could help us out. First, despite the nuttery, a lot of people are lining up for the vax. Unlike seasonal flu vaccine, the numbers for which are pretty constant year after year in terms of those who want the vaccine, H1N1 is getting a lot of attention and perhaps more will get it than "usual." Which should make the vaccine more effective.

Second, there's seemingly no mutation for H1N1. No one's spotted any "drift." Unlike seasonal flu vax, which is based on the virus before it mutates over the course of the season. Without mutation in the virus, the H1N1 vax should be much, much more effective than the seasonal shot is against type A.

Fingers crossed.

[Hubert Flottz]

8. Boy it's a good thing the CEOs got their shots...

There wouldn't be anyone around to rob us but the republicans if the CEOs bought the farm.

[kimmerspixelated]

27. Question: How many deaths

happened AFTER the vax program began? Was there a noticeable jump in infections just after? Is viral shedding part of the picture? Just curious. Don't flame. It's just a question!

[Techn0Girl]

28. Viral shedding...

Refers simply to the process of virus multiplication which is the normal way any virus spreads. There is nothing sinister or unique regarding that term.

To my knowledge there is no study that compare virus infection rates after the vaccination program possibly because the vaccination program just really got started at all and likely because no one feels the need for such a study. Oddly enough there are no good stats on vaccination effectiveness of ANY previous influenza vaccine. The pharmacy companies tend to not fund such things . The best stats tha I have googled up indicate between a 30-50% effectiveness in preventing regular influenza.

[Garam_Masala]

30. If 36,000 die every year from regular flu, why is 3900 from H1N1 a big deal?

I was in Mexico during April 2009 and came down with flu.
This was just before swine flu became news. I have to assume
it was swine flu since it was raging in Mexico at that time, as it
was later recognized.

However being in my 60's, it was very mild flu. It lasted all of 3 days.

[Techn0Girl]

31. It's not a big deal :)

Except to a very few rather hysterical people.

[Garam_Masala]

32. I like your thinking!

:toast:

[Bluebear]

33. That's right. Those hysterical people with HIV, COPD, diabetes who can't get the vaccine...

because Wall Street got their doses first. Aren't they just hysterical. It's no big deal. :eyes:

[Techn0Girl]

34. I'm not sure which thread you're responding to...

but I like the ones on my planet better :)

[Bluebear]

36. Sweet, just as long as everything is OK in your world!

[Garam_Masala]

35. In the meanwhile.....

do the most effective method of preventing flu.....Wash hands after
touching any object touched by others.

Also keep in mind even those who received flu vaccine are known to
come down with flu!

[Robb]

37. Interesting how close this number is

...to this: http://flutracker.rhizalabs.com/