STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday November 10

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday November 10, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 9, 2009

Dow... 10,226.94 +203.52 (+2.03%)
Nasdaq... 2,154.06 +41.62 (+1.97%)
S&P 500... 1,093.08 +23.78 (+2.22%)
Gold future... 1,102 +5.90 (+0.54%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.48 -0.01 (-0.26%)
30-Year Bond 4.40 +0.00 (+0.07%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Momentum Shifting - Trend Intact
BY RYAN J. PUPLAVA

It looks to me like we could be forming the end of a blow-off rally. It’s difficult to measure how high stocks could go from here, but there are some clear shifts in volume, world market trends, and sector rotation that are signaling this bullish trend is coming to an end over the short to intermediate-term. Investors should invest more cautiously today than a few months ago due to the shift in momentum. Don’t be left holding the bag when valuations come back down to normal.

Let’s start with foreign markets and work our way back. When investors got word that the Chinese banks were deciding to slow lending in August, the Shanghai Index fell 21%. If the Fed announced last Wednesday they would be removing some of their accommodative policies, there’d be no doubt in my mind we’d be trading below 1,000 on the S&P 500 at this time. The Shanghai Composite is recouping from that correction at 3175 after bottoming near 2700.
.....

Concerning the stock market itself, distribution was the name of the game in October—at a higher rate than we’ve ever seen since the start of the rally. When fewer participants create new highs and fewer participants reach back above their 50-day average (an intermediate-term trend indicator), a bull should start to be concerned. These are early signs of an end to a bullish trend.
.....

The final note regarding momentum is a warning in new highs vs. new lows. If we show any divergence (a drawing apart – Merriam-Webster’s online) between a new price high in the market and the number of issues reaching new highs over the next few weeks, it will be another warning that participation in this rally has shifted from the troops to the generals (blue-chips). This would be a sign of a shift in portfolio strategy to a defensive one.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

13. Stocks discussed in the aggregate

That's just herd psychology, and/or market manipulation.

What ever happened to investing on fundamentals and hard data?

[Po_d Mainiac]

19. If P/E's were in line, the S&P would be off 60%

No fundamentals at play there :grr:

[Demeter]

20. Exactly

[MilesColtrane]

35. Or investing for the long term?

[Demeter]

36. What? Two Hundred Years?

[MilesColtrane]

38. You don't buy stocks to hold them?

Then you should be happy for that herd mentality that bounces them up and down.

[Demeter]

42. I don't Buy Stock Period

[MilesColtrane]

45. Please forgive me for making the assumption.

I just thought you might because you obviously follow daily market trading.

:hi:

[ozymandius]

2. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

3. Oil falls below $79 as Ida drops to tropical storm

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $79 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as a storm threatening oil installations in the Gulf of Mexico weakened and investors eyed a volatile dollar.
.....

Tropical Storm Ida weakened Monday from a hurricane as it neared Gulf Coast oil facilities, easing concern it could disrupt supply when it reaches land later Tuesday.
.....

While U.S. stock markets rose to their 2009 highs Monday on investor optimism about the global economic recovery, oil is still below its peak for the year of $82 on concern growing U.S. unemployment will undermine demand.
.....

In other Nymex trading, heating oil fell 2.47 cents to $2.04 a gallon. Gasoline for December delivery dropped 1.98 cents to $1.96 a gallon. Natural gas for December delivery slid 8.0 cents to $4.59 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Japan faces risk of ratings downgrade over debt

TOKYO, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Fitch Ratings warned Japan on Tuesday to keep to its borrowing target or risk a credit rating downgrade as the finance minister acknowledged the problem and tried to reassure rattled investors by saying spending had to be cut.

Japanese sovereign credit default swaps spreads have nearly doubled in the past week as investors fretted that the government faces a funding crunch over its ballooning public debt, which the International Monetary Fund says will spiral to 227 percent of gross domestic product next year, by far the worst in the G7.
.....

The government has said it plans to borrow 44 trillion yen ($490 billion) in the 2010/11 fiscal year starting next April, which would be on top of expected record issuance this fiscal year of more than 50 trillion yen.

But Fitch Ratings said it's hard to see how the 2010/11 goal will be achieved and borrowing much more than 44 trillion yen would spark a ratings review.

http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUST21831820091110

[ozymandius]

5. News Corp's Murdoch warns he may block Google

SYDNEY — Global media mogul Rupert Murdoch has accused Google of stealing from his News Corp. empire, and warned he may block the search engine from accessing its content.

"People who simply just pick up everything and run with it, steal our stories -- we say they steal our stories, they just take them without payment," Murdoch told Sky News in a weekend interview here.
.....

Speaking specifically about Google, the chairman and chief executive of News Corp. said he was considering banning the search engine from listing his company's content "when we start charging".

News Corp, which owns an enormous number of newspapers around the world including The Australian, the New York Post and The Times of London, is planning to soon charge all its online readers.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5itzqNKUWQQEZlPHMekGqZuHgZ3kg

[ozymandius]

6. Go ahead, Google tells Murdoch

London - Google said on Tuesday, in response to threats by Rupert Murdoch to ban the search engine from listing content from his news empire, that any company could ask to have stories taken off.

In an interview in his native Australia, Murdoch accused Google of stealing stories from News Corp newspapers for the Google News service, and said he might ban them once he introduces charges for the papers' online editions.

Google said it was up to individual news organisations to decide whether they wanted their stories listed on Google News, and there were "simple technical standards" that would remove them if they wished.
.....

Google said its news listings service and web searches were a "tremendous source of promotion" for news organisations, sending them "about 100 000 clicks every minute".

http://www.news24.com/Content/SciTech/News/1132/4103afa32d30400fb901666f800824d0/10-11-2009-12-52/Go_ahead,_Google_tells_Murdoch

[Festivito]

7. Debt: 11/06/2009 11,988,878,801,691.18 (DOWN 1,682,643,138.30) (Fri)

(Down a little. Good morning all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,588,065,890,982.59 + 4,400,812,910,708.59
DOWN 72,128,565.19 + DOWN 1,610,514,573.11

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,873,758 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,940.89.
A family of three owes $116,822.68. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 2,671,430,467.05.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,048,096,691.41.
The average for the last 31 days would be 1,982,029,056.20.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 27 reports in 37 days of FY2010 averaging 2.93B$ per report, 2.14B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,171 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/06/2009 11,988,878,801,691.18 BHO (UP 1,362,001,752,778.10 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,079,049,798,179.40 ------------* BHO
Endof10 +0,779,815,576,634.63 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/19/2009 +000,169,101,777.19 ------------******** Mon
10/20/2009 +000,084,506,561.85 ------------*******
10/21/2009 +000,260,615,642.06 ------------********
10/22/2009 -054,881,746,021.15 -
10/23/2009 -000,105,634,856.79 ---
10/26/2009 -000,680,933,964.04 --- Mon
10/27/2009 +000,626,474,250.98 ------------********
10/28/2009 +000,798,039,832.64 ------------********
10/29/2009 -019,769,093,363.09 -
10/30/2009 +031,206,306,633.43 ------------**********
11/02/2009 +091,997,621,963.98 ------------********** Mon
11/03/2009 +000,189,596,548.58 ------------********
11/04/2009 -000,084,777,046.07 ----
11/05/2009 +008,148,647,528.82 ------------*********
11/06/2009 -000,072,128,565.19 ----

57,886,596,923.20 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4139238&mesg_id=4139250

[Festivito]

39. Debt: 11/09/2009 11,990,022,541,364.79 (UP 1,143,739,673.61) (Mon)

(Up a little. Good day to all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,588,075,478,091.39 + 4,401,947,063,273.40
UP 9,587,108.80 + UP 1,134,152,564.81

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,899,678 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,941.33.
A family of three owes $116,823.99. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 4,486,821,388.40.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,140,774,971.88.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,039,459,650.20.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 28 reports in 40 days of FY2010 averaging 2.86B$ per report, 2.00B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,168 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/09/2009 11,990,022,541,364.79 BHO (UP 1,363,145,492,451.71 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,080,193,537,853.00 ------------* * BHO
Endof10 +0,731,766,032,908.63 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/20/2009 +000,084,506,561.85 ------------*******
10/21/2009 +000,260,615,642.06 ------------********
10/22/2009 -054,881,746,021.15 -
10/23/2009 -000,105,634,856.79 ---
10/26/2009 -000,680,933,964.04 --- Mon
10/27/2009 +000,626,474,250.98 ------------********
10/28/2009 +000,798,039,832.64 ------------********
10/29/2009 -019,769,093,363.09 -
10/30/2009 +031,206,306,633.43 ------------**********
11/02/2009 +091,997,621,963.98 ------------********** Mon
11/03/2009 +000,189,596,548.58 ------------********
11/04/2009 -000,084,777,046.07 ----
11/05/2009 +008,148,647,528.82 ------------*********
11/06/2009 -000,072,128,565.19 ----
11/09/2009 +000,009,587,108.80 ------------****** Mon

57,727,082,254.81 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4140650&mesg_id=4140664

[ozymandius]

8. Dodd Said to Propose Removing Fed, FDIC Bank-Supervision Roles

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Senator Christopher Dodd will propose creating a single U.S. regulator that would strip the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. of bank- supervision authority, said a person familiar with the matter.

Dodd, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, would eliminate the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision and fold the Treasury Department units into the new bank regulator, according to the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the plan isn’t public. The Connecticut Democrat is scheduled to release a draft of his financial-regulation overhaul plan today in Washington.

.....
Dodd has criticized the U.S. system of four bank regulators, saying the structure encourages charter shopping and a “race to the bottom” by regulators to win over bank and thrift clients. His proposal goes further than proposals by President Barack Obama and House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank to merge the OTS and OCC.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair told Dodd’s committee in August that merging the four agencies is “no panacea” and Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo has testified that the central bank should retain its authority over U.S. banks. The Fed and FDIC regulate state-chartered banks. The Fed also regulates bank- holding companies.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqVvr9UKcubg&pos=4

---

If it comes down to two entities then I say prune the Fed all the way back to just implementing monetary policy. After all - it is not a government agency. Let the FDIC supervise banking practices. The FDIC could do its job much better if the Fed were removed from any regulation authority.

[Zenlitened]

28. Agreed. Put it all in the hands of the FDIC...

... and maybe create or consolidate other offices into a small oversight body to further ensure that regulations are actually enforced, limits are actually observed, etc.

But to create a whole new, big regulatory regime? Dumb, IMO.

[ozymandius]

9. I am having tech issues again.

The fourth visit from the AT&T technician has not fixed the connection issues. I blame the rain.

First time in a week that it has rained and Lo! And Behold! I have connection problems.

[ozymandius]

10. Maybe either fans of Fox News or of the Fed have unrec'd the modest SMW.

Was it something I said? Has it come to this?

Connection issues are driving me nuts. I'm going to bag it for right now. I'll check back later.

Have fun today, y'all.

:hi:

[AnneD]

12. I think it was us....

posting Dodd's proposal...or maybe my meds haven't kicked in yet.

[DemReadingDU]

14. I think there are people who unrecommend every thread

In just about every forum, you can see as soon as a thread is posted, someone unrecommends it.
:crazy:

[Demeter]

17. Don't Take It Personally, Ozy

The Unreccer is either:

a) fumble-fingered and hit the wrong button

b) psychotic and deserving of our pity and avoidance

c) finally coming out from under the Koolaid and mad as hell and this thread is a convenient target.

It isn't personal, even if they meant it to be, since you don't know them and they aren't going to reveal themselves, either. It's institutional. A little noise in the signal.

[AnneD]

25. Ozy...

just another turd in the punch bowl of life my friend...

[ozymandius]

41. Indeed.

I was not hurt by an getting a thumbs-down. Just oddly amused.

[AnneD]

11. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. Up at 4:30 and still not the first rec. Some folks need to watch their caffeine intake.

Things have been a bit sad and painful around here as of late. A good friend died suddenly on Tuesday morning. I have no doubt she could have had a longer life if health care had have been available. In the process of meeting old friends-I found out one of our friends twin brother died of an infection that he could not afford to treat-see he was a diabetic and just brushed it off and tried to take care of it himself because he was out of work.

My friend lived an alternative lifestyle (code in Texas for gay and pagan to boot). She left behind many grieving friends in the court house and Sci Fi community, children, nieces, adopted and foster kids, a life and business partner of over 20 years, and a cadre of close friends wishing they had gotten her to give them more of her recipes. Our annual New Years pot luck will be a little bit duller and a lot less tasty. She was 56 and her mother is heart broke to bury her child before she herself passed. The preaching at the funeral was mainly for her mom-but mom couldn't even bring herself to come. Her friends gathered to support her partner and stayed til she left. Someone will be with her all this week and next to help her through. Her office staff will be helping her next-you see, her partner was her right hand.

So, I don't know what saddens me more-the fact that there was not adequate health care, lack of recognition of gay marriage, or complete religious freedom for one of the world's old religions. And all this being played against the relentless, useless chatter coming out of DC and NYC. I hope you have a productive day and do something that brings you and your loved ones some joy. When it comes down to it...that's all that matters anyway.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[DemReadingDU]

15. Morning AnneD

I'm real sorry for the loss of your friend. She was so young. All those those things you mention are sad. Special hugs
:hug:

[Demeter]

16. It's Waiting for Change That Is Killing Us All

My condolences, AnneD.

I spent last week keeping company with the Californian daughter of a neighbor. The neighbor is in Stage 3 bladder cancer in a nursing home.

Knowing how much I needed company when my mother was dying 11 years ago this November (the Kid was 16 and in the hospital simultaneously, bleeding to death, and they refused to do surgery for 10 days until they had to transfuse her. They wanted hormones to do the job. Can't wait to see what the effect of all those hormones will be--of course, the gall bladder was the first result...)

Anyway, I could not just let this girl frazzle herself to death. It was terribly a downer. I drove her places, fed her, listened to her natter on, and watched her hold herself together by force of will. Been there, done that myself, with two babies in tow.

The California daughter has gone back now. Her sister, who lives 3 miles away, refuses to talk to her sister and is neglectful of the mother. The doctors had to call the California daughter to tell her that her mother was in the hospital. The mother is hell-bent on independence and saving her money for a grandson in another country, so he can get a PhD.

The California daughter is crippled from a car accident, but she's a girl, and only good to order around. It's the old male preference trick.

I swear, sometimes it's a blessing to lose all your family. They can't disappoint and hurt you any more. I don't know as I can take many more Novembers.

[Dr.Phool]

18. So sorry for your loss Anne.

[AnneD]

24. Thanks for the hugs and kind words...

Love the pic (of Sara, is she at the lingerie drawer again?. Pets and kids have a way of pulling you out of a funk.

I am just so sad that this once great country that I once proudly served has 'leaders' that are small and petty. Every time Congress gets together anymore it is nothing more than petty turf wars and pissing contests-all the while we are literally dying outside the beltway. They do this to kept us divided and distracted while they continue to steal our children's future...and sadly it IS working. I guess I'll be sitting on the pity potty for a while but I promise to get off it as soon as I can and get back into the game. I just need a little down time.

[Tansy_Gold]

44. Hugs to you, AnneD,

Lost an old friend to leukemia a few weeks ago, so I guess we're all going through it to one extent or another. Cruel, cruel autumn.


I will be mainly in lurk mode for the next eight weeks or so. Holiday arts & crafts show season is upon me and I have signed up for more than I had inventory for, so what moments I can spare from the paying gig I must devote to the art. Plenty of material, far less inspiration, virtually no confidence. Two most recent shows have been quite disappointing. Not failures, but not the successes they have been in the past.

As I was explaining to friends this morning over our social coffee, I think there are numerous reasons for the decline in sales at arts & crafts shows this year. The economy in general, of course, as too many people are feeling the pinch in the budget and discretionary spending is down.

But it hits on the other side, too, especially here in central Arizona where the weather is just about at its best right now and the influx of winter visitors has started its annual cascade.

Artists who might have done two or three shows a year and made a good income from it are now doing five or six and not bringing in nearly the same revenue. More and more non-art organizations are turning to the "craft fair" as a means of raising funds. Schools, churches, service organizations are sponsoring more and more events, charging a modest fee for a booth or a table plus a percentage of each artist's proceeds. People who used to dabble in a crafting hobby -- knitting, woodworking, painting, etc. -- are turning to the hobby to provide replacement income after job losses and hours cutbacks. Those who never had a hobby because they never had time for one suddenly find themselves with too much time, and too little income. So there is much more competition -- more shows, more exhibitors -- for the fewer and fewer shopping dollars.

What percentage of the money spent at these shows and fairs will end up never being reported to any government agency is a good question. I believe it was during a previous recession that someone estimated 10% of the national economy was black or grey market, an "underground" economy of cash and barter, untaxed, unreported. I wonder what percentage it is now.



Tansy Gold, who will check in as she has time.

[AnneD]

46. My other Bradah....

does cooking for events and he is only going to his most profitable gigs and goodness knows what is grey but I bet it is a pretty penny.Every one is getting hand made home made this year and under ware all round....:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[UpInArms]

21. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 75.208 Change +0.182 (+0.23%

German Investor Confidence Drops As Stimulus Efforts Come To An End

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/top_fx_headlines/2009-11-10-1301-German_Investor_Confidence_Drops_As.html

Fundamental Headlines

• IEA: Climate Deal to Affect Oil Demand – Wall Street Journal
• Fitch: U.K. Most at Risk of AAA Downgrade – Wall Street Journal
• Global equity markets set sights on year highs– Financial Times
• European Finance Ministers Commit to Start Curbing Budget Deficits by 2011 – Bloomberg
• Mersch Says European Central Bank May Raise Growth Forecast in December -Bloomberg

EUR/USD – German investor confidence fell more than expected to 51.1 from 56.0, on concerns over the sustainability of growth beyond government stimulus. Economists were predicting a decline to 55.0 as expiring government programs and rising unemployment was expected to weigh on the outlook for Europe’s largest economy. G-20 leaders this past weekend pledge to maintain their efforts to promote growth into 2011 which could raise the outlook going forward.

GBP/USD – U.K. September visible trade deficit unexpectedly widened to GBP7.19 bln, worse than median estimates of 6.10 bln. However, the August reading was revised to -6.07 bln from -6.24 bln. Exports increased by 3.9% during the month but were outpaced by a 7.5% increase in imports. Increasing foreign and domestic demand is encouraging for the economy. However, the BoE has expressed hopes that the weaker currency will aid a re-balancing of the U.K. economy, but as today's data show, the process is likely to be slow. Therefore, expect the central bank to continue to evaluate their asset purchase program with tomorrow’s employment and inflation data having significant influence on future monetary policy.

...more...

British Pound Halts Five-Day Rally as Fitch Sees Risk for UK’s Credit Rating

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/us_open/2009-11-10-1155-British_Pound_Halts_Five_Day_Rally.html

The British pound halted the five-day rally against the greenback and tumbled to a low of 1.6601 as Fitch Ratings held a cautious outlook for the U.K. and said the country’s AAA sovereign credit rating is at risk as the nation needs “the largest budget adjustment” amongst the industrialized countries. Nevertheless, Fitch’s head of global sovereign ratings, David Riley, expects policy makers in the country to “articulate a stronger fiscal consolidation program next year and sees a “stable” outlook for the nation’s rating as Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling pledges to shore up the government’s balance sheet.

Meanwhile, the economic docket reinforced an improved outlook for the region as the BRC retail sales monitor increased at an annual pace of 5.9% in October after rising 4.9% in the previous month, while the RICS house price balance index jumped 34% after rising 21% in September to top expectations for a 28% rise. At the same time, the visible trade deficit widened more-than-expected in September, with the shortfall rising to 7.194B from 6.073B as imports outpaced the rise in exports, while the DCLG housing index showed prices slipped at an annualized pace of 4.1% during the same period amid expectations for a 4.9% drop. As growth prospects improve, the GBP/USD may continue to trend higher over the near-term and retrace the sell-off from August as policy makers see the economy emerging from the worst recession since the post-war period, and long-term expectations for higher interest rates in the U.K. may drive the exchange rate higher going into the following year.

The euro bounced back from the low (1.4950) and reached a high of 1.5022 during the overnight session, but the lack of momentum to break above the previous days high may keep the single-currency within a narrow range going into the U.S. trade as market sentiment wavers. Meanwhile, the German ZEW investor confidence survey weakened more-than-expected in November, with the headline reading slipping to 51.1 from 56.0, while the gauge of the current situation increased to -65.6 from -72.2 to top expectations for a rise to -70.0. At the same time, the ZEW survey for the Euro-Zone slipped to 51.8 from 56.9 amid forecasts for a rise to 58.0, and the data suggests investors are scaling back their outlook for future growth as policy makers continue to see a risk for a protracted recovery. Moreover, the final CPI reading for Europe’s largest economy showed price increased 0.1% in October, with the annual rate of inflation holding flat during the month, while core prices weakened 0.1% from the previous year. In addition, wholesale prices in the region fell 0.4% during the same period after slipping 0.2% in September, with prices tumbling 7.0% from the previous year, and the data reinforces a dovish outlook for future policy as the European Central Bank expects inflation to remain subdued going into 2010.

U.S. dollar price action was mixed overnight, with the greenback rallying against the Japanese yen to reach a high of 90.20 however, the reserve currency may lack direction going into the North American session as U.S. equity futures remain little changed on Tuesday. Nevertheless, central officials will be on the wires throughout the day, with Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart scheduled to speak at 14:15 GMT, while Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen will discuss the economic outlook for the U.S. at 15:05 GMT. At the same time, the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index is expected to rise to 49.0 in November from 48.7 in the previous month as the world’s largest economy emerges from the worst recession since the Great Depression.

...more...

[Hugin]

22. U.S. Stock-Index Futures Decline; MBIA, Fluor Drop in Europe (Bloomberg)

By Daniela Silberstein

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock futures fell, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may retreat for the first time in seven days, after MBIA Inc. and Fluor Corp. reported third- quarter earnings that missed analysts’ estimates.

MBIA, the world’s largest bond insurer, slumped 13 percent after posting a $727.8-million loss on insured credit derivatives. Fluor sank 5.7 percent after cutting its full-year earnings forecast.

Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in December declined 0.3 percent to 1,088.5 at 8:37 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 0.3 percent to 10,167 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures fell 0.2 percent to 1,763.75. Stocks in Europe retreated for the first time in five days after a bigger- than-forecast decline investor confidence.

“We will see a recovery but not without a few negative surprises on the way,” said Gerold Kuehne, who manages about $127 million in U.S. equities at LLB Asset Management AG in Vaduz, Liechtenstein. “With the earnings season almost over and no significant economic data out this week, the market is waiting for the retailers to report later this week and move the market in one direction or another.”

More... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aR0ZlpmiH4mQ&pos=2
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Yeah, NO.SIGNIFICANT.ECONOMIC.DATA... (Except for the dismal jobs reports.)

So, what prompted this surge in the indexes? Looks like a bubble to me... :shrug:

[Hugin]

23. Futures at around 08:45 ET.

DJIA INDEX 10,168.00 -24.00 10,185.00 08:43
S&P 500 1,088.20 -3.50 1,091.50 08:47
NASDAQ 100 1,763.50 -3.00 1,766.00 08:46

[Ghost Dog]

26. Global stocks rise as risk favored

LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks ticked higher on Tuesday as positive reports from UK banks kept the momentum with investors who chased risky assets in anticipation countries would keep monetary policy accommodative.

Sterling fell broadly after a warning on Britain's triple-A credit rating while the dollar held near a 15-month low as investors bought higher-yielding currencies.

HSBC shares rose 2 percent (LSE:HSBA.L - News) after the bank said its underlying third quarter profits were significantly ahead of a year ago and loan impairment charges fell.

Barclays (LSE:BARC.L - News) said strong investment banking helped limit a fall in profit in the third quarter, adding it expected bad debts to peak earlier than it had previously expected. It also said it would restart dividends next month.

They have joined a batch of rivals including Goldman Sachs reporting strong third-quarter results as capital markets and trading activity remained lively. Promises by G20 nations to keep economic stimulus in place until recovery was assured also helped risky assets.

Gains in European shares were limited however as investors consolidated their holdings after a four-session rally.

"Monetary and fiscal stimulus has clearly taken hold, and has resulted in an initial growth spurt that has been sharp and fast," noted Bob Doll, chief investment officer for global equities at BlackRock.

"Equity markets should be able to continue to gain, at least until global policymakers shift into tightening cycles. From our perspective, we believe we are at least several months away from that happening." MSCI world equity index (^MIWD00000PUS - News) rose 0.1 percent, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index (^FTEU3 - News) gained 0.2 percent. In Asia (^MIAPJ0000PUS - News) emerging stocks rose 0.5 percent.

Emerging stocks (^MSCIEF - News) rose 0.3 percent.

/... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Global-stocks-rise-as-risk-rb-1543973255.html?x=0&.v=4

[Hugin]

29. Is this surge a result of the "Carry Trade", GhostDog?

Ya think? :shrug:

[Ghost Dog]

31. Dollar crash bubble? File under monetary loosening?

There are those who point to limited volume, and reckon it's mostly investment bank computers dealing with each other at this stage... with a few trading addicts and immature fund managers thrown in.

:shrug:

I'm still expecting a dollar rebound by the end of the year or shortly thereafter, and an S&P 'correction'.

But Gold Sacks & Co. will decide, when they decide.

[Ghost Dog]

27. Gordon Brown is right: ... A global tax on banking transactions would curb speculation and...

Gordon Brown is right: rich western banks should pay for the developing world to go green

A global tax on banking transactions would curb speculation and the proceeds could break the deadlock on Copenhagen climate talks

o The Guardian, Monday 9 November 2009

The response was predictable. No sooner had Gordon Brown expressed enthusiasm for a global transaction tax than the backlash began. Not something we like, said the Americans. We want lower not higher taxes, said the Canadians. Too hard to enforce, said the International Monetary Fund.

This is the last gasp of an ancien régime. The banks in 2009 are the Bourbons in 1789, the Romanovs in 1917. They existed in a bubble of privilege and took the public for a ride. They caused a financial crisis and triggered the biggest economic crash since the 1930s. They now expect the state to clear up the financial mess caused by this greed and stupidity through public spending cuts and higher taxes.

As the prime minister noted in St Andrews on Saturday, this is not on. "There must be a better economic and social contract between financial institutions and the public, based on trust and just distribution of risks and rewards," Brown said. Amen to that. He is 100% right and he deserves support.

...

Finance ministries were initially dismissive about debt relief but were eventually won over. Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy have both backed the idea of a transaction tax; Brown's intervention means there is now a powerful bloc challenging the status quo.

Despite what the IMF says, the main obstacles to a tax first proposed by the US economist James Tobin in the 1970s are political rather than technical. All financial trades are electronically recorded; it would be simple for them to be monitored by tax authorities.

...

The big hurdle for a transaction tax is, and always has been, the need to get universal backing. That's shorthand for winning the Americans over.

Tim Geithner, the US treasury secretary, was sniffy about Brown's idea at the weekend, but Downing Street is encouraged by the Obama administration's willingness to cooperate internationally in a clampdown on tax havens.

The political argument in favour of reform is strong. Firstly, policymakers want to put in place measures to reduce the risks of future financial crises. Secondly, financial institutions provide an easy source of revenue at a time when governments are counting every penny.

A study by the Austrian government showed that a 0.05% tax imposed on UK financial trades would raise about £100bn a year, even assuming an improbable two-thirds drop in transactions. That would wipe out the structural part of the UK's budget deficit at a stroke, avoiding the need for painful and unpopular spending cuts.

Brown, though, wants only half the proceeds from a transaction tax spent at home. He would like to see governments from developed nations allocate the other half to financing development and helping poor countries cope with global warming. That's a good strategy, since it would both assuage public anger at the banks and ensure that a global tax was used to do global good.

Poor countries did not cause the crisis yet have been badly hurt by it. They need money to develop low-carbon growth strategies. Without a willingness by the west to bankroll greener economic strategies in the developing world there will be no climate change deal. The portents are bad for next month's climate change summit in Copenhagen. Indeed, the negotiations are starting to echo the global trade liberalisation talks, which began in Doha eight years ago this week and are still going nowhere.

/... http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/nov/09/bank-tax-pays-for-development

[Hugin]

30. "The political argument in favour of reform is strong."

'Nuff said.

:7

[Joe Chi Minh]

33. Wow. Brown's finally becoming REALLY prudent. As long as he was doing

their bidding, the right-wing noise-machine would have it that he was prudent, when the reality was that he was colluding in an economic catastrophe, seemingly still looming on the horizon.

His concern for the poorer countries of the world, echoes, at least as a first step, Benedict's encyclical addressing the economic plight the world now finds itself in. Something, evidently more than "hand-outs from the tail-gates of lorries", and financing the militaries of corrupt tyrants - even, one hopes, avoiding financing capital-intensive industries, pursuant to the precepts of Schumacher's Small is Beautful.

Re the proposed Tobin Tax, here is what Alex Brummer, City Editor of the Daily Mail has to say:

"Taxing trades

No one should consider the transactions tax on the banks dead and buried, despite the scorn poured on Gordon Brown's brief appearance at the G20 summit.

What the critics of the tax fail to acknowledge is that wholesale banking is an imperfect market where the domination of a handful of really major players allows super-normal profits to be made, which drive bonus payments.

This is not the 'work of God', as argued by Goldman Sachs chairman Lloyd Blankfein in his Sunday Times interview. It is profiteering by the few on the backs of the many, and the Prime Minister deserves some credit for buying into the argument.

It is only too easy for people to say it cannot work because any such tax is too porous.

Transactions taxes of a kind have always existed, including stamp duty on share dealings.

This may be a bad tax as far as the City is concerned but it has raised money for the UK Exchequer despite the fact that hedge funds have all kinds of avoidance strategies such as trading through contracts for differences.

There will always be people who will try to outwit the system. But the betting must be that the bigger players Goldman, JP Morgan, Barcap et al, have too much riding on not alienating governments in the G20 economies to try such tactics.

So while there will be leakage it will be limited. Indeed, the clampdown on tax havens demonstrates it is possible to bring them within the purview of global regulation with enough willpower.

The more serious set of questions is on which transactions it should be levied, at what level and what the money should be used for.

This is currently in the hands of the International Monetary Fund. But it may need some clearer briefing on what policymakers have in mind.

It is not surprising the Americans hate the idea of TT. It is in their nature to reject international jurisdiction over their affairs. Similarly in Britain, the Treasury generally likes to have a monopoly taxation policy.

That should not mean that the TT is strangled at birth. It is a rational response."


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1226497/ALEX-BRUMMER-COMMENT-Rosenfeld-digs-siege.html#ixzz0WTHMMzT1

[DemReadingDU]

32. Charlie Gasparino: Job Losses Could Trigger Round 2 of Banking Crisis

11/10/09 Charlie Gasparino: Job Losses Could Trigger Round 2 of Banking Crisis

The unemployment rate now stands at 10.2%, yet stocks are at a 2009 high. The bulls will tell you not to worry; the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. True as that may be, Charlie Gasparino author of The Sellout, has a word of warning: the jobs data may be a leading indicator when it comes to the health of our banking system.

One of Gasparino's sources, Calyon Securities banking analyst Mike Mayo (who warned of the credit bubble before the crash) tells him, if unemployment rises to 11%, "there could be an issue where we have round 2 of this crisis."

Why?

* If unemployment ticks higher, more consumer loans are likely to go into default and banks may have problems covering the additional loan losses. For now, banks are thriving from a low interest rate environment that allows them to borrow for nearly nothing and invest in safe Treasuries at 3.5%. That could all change if they need to boost reserves.
* Banks may find it difficult to raise more capital after already taking billions from the government. Are you willing to lend to zombie banks like Citigroup and Bank of America? Even relatively healthy banks like JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo might find it difficult.
* Toxic assets still infect the banking industry. Gasparino says $7 trillion in derivatives isn't a problem that goes away overnight, especially if the economy gets worse and their value falls once again. "It took 30 years to build this toxic assets, they haven't sold a lot of it, they haven’t written it down to zero," he warns.

How can we solve the problem?

Prevent outlandish risk taking behavior. The government should send a clear message to the banks, he says. "Cut that umbilical cord right now… if you screw up this time you're on your own."

Recent history suggests that's easier said then done.

video at link
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/368866/Charlie-Gasparino-Job-Losses-Could-Trigger-Round-2-of-Banking-Crisis?tickers=bac,wfc,jpm,c,gs,ms,xlf&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=


That umbilical cord should have been cut 2 years ago, before any bailout.

[DemReadingDU]

34. Peter Costa: "The US Government Will Be Totally Bankrupt In A Year And A Half"

CNBC: Word on the Street

11/10/09 A check on the markets with Peter Costa, of Executions, and Pat Kernan, of Cardinal Capital Management.

3 minute video

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1325471700

[Demeter]

37. No. Taxes Will Be Raised and Peace will be Enforced

There is no alternative. Bankruptcy is not possible.

And all those bases will be sold off to the highest bidder.

[Ghost Dog]

40. Must see: John Perkins on Democracy Now!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x72075
http://www.democracynow.org/2009/11/10/hoodwinked_former_economic_hit_man_john

Very articulate.

[Roland99]

43. Adobe eliminating 680 jobs in cost-cutting effort

Adobe eliminating 680 jobs in cost-cutting effort
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/adobe-eliminating-680-jobs-in-cost-cutting-effort-2009-11-10


Adobe Systems says it's cutting 9% of its total workforce in an effort to cut costs amid declining software sales.