Hoffman 41, Owens 36

[villager]

Source: Siena Poll/Politco

Hoffman 41, Owens 36

Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman holds the late momentum in the New York special election, emerging with the lead over Democrat Bill Owens, according to a brand new Siena poll taken after Republican Dede Scozzafava withdrew from the race.

Hoffman now leads Owens by five points, 41 to 36 percent with 18 percent of voters undecided. He’s lost ground with independent voters, who now favor Owens 43 to 37 percent. But he’s consolidated his support with Republicans, winning 63 percent of party voters in the run-up to tomorrow’s election.

”Hoffman continues to demonstrate momentum, picking up six points since Scozzafava pulled out,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. “It appears, however, that the majority of Scozzafava’s supporters have gone to neither Hoffman nor Owens, but rather into the undecided column, which has doubled since Scozzafava ended her candidacy.”

Hoffman is the only candidate to have a net favorable rating, with 47 percent of districtwide voters viewing him favorably, while only 33 percent view him unfavorably. For the first time in the Siena poll, Owens has a net unfavorable rating, with 37 percent viewing him favorably and 38 percent unfavorably.

The real battleground is taking place in Scozzafava’s home base in St. Lawrence and Jefferson Counties, where she led throughout the campaign. Hoffman is tied with Owens at 36 percent in that region, with Scozzafava’s old supporters splitting just about evenly towards the two candidates.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1109/Hoffman_41_Owens_36.html

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Siena poll, reported by Politico... GOP evidently ready to get even bugshit crazier...

[derby378]

1. Come ON, Bill - pull out all the stops

We don't want Sarah Palin playing kingmaker here!

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

2. Hang Palin around his neck like a boat anchor...

This will be a good test to see how much clout her endorsement has outside of Alaska.

I know it's a Republican district, but are they that batshit crazy?

[Bleacher Creature]

3. Honestly, it's win-win for our side.

If Owens wins, it's an epic fail for the right wing teabagger crowd. If Hoffman wins, it's an epic win for the teabaggers, and an epic fail for any marginally sensible Republican running in 2010. It will completely embolden the lunatics to take aim at higher profile targets during the next cycle, -- i.e., Charlie Crist.

[creeksneakers2]

20. What if the lunatic candidates win general elections?

[Psephos]

21. You've missed a crucial point

Whether Hoffman wins or loses, tea partiers have already achieved their goal, which was to send a clear message to the RNC that the top-down model for the repug party is dead.

It seems to me that that the same process we've undergone in the Democratic Party is underway in theirs. Namely, power has been re-distributed, benefiting the bottom of the pyramid to the discomfiture of the top.

[bluestateguy]

4. Not convinced

Sorry. Just not buying it.

[villager]

5. guess we'll know definitively, soon enough?

:shrug:

[Winterblues]

6. I wonder if other moderates like Snowe and Collins are paying attention.

If they want to be a part of the bat shit crazy then stay Republican. Otherwise they should join the Human Race...Moderates are not at all welcome in this new Republican/Conservative Party..

[villager]

7. Of course, if they *really* "paid attention," they wouldn't be Republicans at all

Then again, maybe their "wake up" call is indeed coming...

[Major Hogwash]

8. Hoffman will definitely lose tomorrow. Owens may win by more than 10 points.

Because now the air is out of the GOP's balloons.
Hoffman doesn't have any party balloons that don't say "LOSER" on them.

Obama won this district by 52% just last year.
The fractured GOP in New York can't get it together within 96 hours of Dede's announcement of dropping out.
Add to the mix that Hoffman doesn't even live in the 23rd district and has poor name recognition, it's almost a walk in the park for Owens.

On top of that, the poll is very shaky, not within the MOE.
Plus, polls taken within 48 hours of the news of a candidate dropping out - especially on a weekend like Halloween - are meaningless.
Because no one was home to answer the phone.

What world series?

Plus, add to the mix that the GOP faithful is now deflated, like an old party balloon blown up 2 weeks ago - see Sarah Palin for example - the GOP turnout will be low.
While the Democrats have been energized by the opportunity to replace a Republican in the House for their district for the first time since the Civil War.

[Ter]

18. With a Democrat as President

GOP turnout should be higher. This candidate is not a moderate like the party backed one was, so the tea baggers will likely come out in record numbers. No way Hoffman loses by ten points.

[Major Hogwash]

19. Mark my words.

Dede's name is still on the ballot.
Many voters will vote for her even though she has dropped out of the race.

Those votes will essentially count for Owens now, because they are not a vote for Hoffman.

[brooklynite]

9. Siena: Dede's Defection Fails To Halt Hoffmann (NY-23)

Source: NY Daily News

Today's Siena poll finds Conservative nominee Doug Hoffman has continued to gain momentum in NY-23, opening up a five-point lead over Democratic candidate Bill Owens despite his endorsement from the former GOP contender, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava.

The poll of 606 likely voters conducted yesterday - one day after Scozzafava ended her own bid and the same day she crossed party lines to throw her support to Owens - found Hoffman receiving 41 percent of the vote, picking up 6 points since she bowed out of the race.

Owens is at 36 percent - unchanged from the Saturday Siena poll that was the final straw for Scozzafava's faltering campaign. She continues to receive 6 percent of the vote.

Former Rep. John McHugh's seat is still very much up for grabs, however, as the number of undecided voters doubled from nine percent to 18 percent in the wake of Scozzafava's departure. Today's poll has a 4 percent margin of error, which means we're definitely in cliff-hanger territory.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/

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Wildest polling shifts over time I think I've every seen:

[robo50]

10. Gee golly! I can't believe the Conservative candidate will win. n/t

[felinetta]

11. It is a very conservative county. I do not think teabaggers can compete in many elections. They do

not have a large enough base.

[brooklynite]

14. Actually, it's not...

Obama took the district 52% to 47% last year, and Scozzafava has gotten elected to the Assembly as a pro-choice, pro-gay marriage Republican.

[Tempest]

15. Obama took the district, but local Republicans rule

Republicans have held the seat for years. Voters will elect Hoffman by a good size margin.

[brooklynite]

16. Not arguing that it's not Republican,,,

just that it's not as conservatives some make it out to be

[MattBaggins]

17. District not county

Nice bullshit gerrymandered district to ensure a wingnut victory.

I will vote for Owens tomorrow but it will most likely be to no avail.

[bluestateguy]

12. Sorry. Just not buying it.

Just not.

[LVZ]

13. This election will probably hinge on how big the GOP absentee ballot percentage was. n/t

[K8-EEE]

23. You know that's a really good point

I wonder how many voted for Scozza before she dropped out?

[K8-EEE]

22. IT'S REALLY DIFFICULT FOR ME TO BELIEVE

that anybody would vote for that dork!!! COME ON DEMS, PULL OUT ALL THE STOPS, GET OUT THE VOTE!