Obama tempers economic news with caution on jobs

[TomCADem]

Source: Associated Press

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama on Saturday tempered excitement about a growing economy with a sober outlook that more people will lose their jobs. He called that a heartbreaking reality and cautioned that even a burst of upbeat news "does not mean there won't be difficult days ahead."

Obama's straddle served to set expectations for a nation emerging from recession but anxious for an economic security that has not nearly returned.

The good news of the week: The economy is on the rise for the first time in more than a year. Fro m July through September the economy grew by 3.5 percent, the strongest uptick in two years. Obama called the development no cause for celebration, but a welcome sign after so many months of distressing news.

"While we have a long way to go before we return to prosperity, and there will undoubtedly be ups and downs along the road, it's also true that we've come a long way," Obama said in his weekly radio and Internet address. "It is easy to forget that it was only several months ago that the economy was shrinking rapidly and many economists feared another Great Depression."

Read more: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gWifx4pzOPIWhSx1Xff9H1vua02AD9BM6NLG0

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Shoot, if Bush were President, Dubya would be screaming Mission Accomplished.

[dflprincess]

1. Thom Hartmann has said that in Germany

(and other parts of Europe) employers have figured out that no jobs means no real recovery and do make a real effort to avoid layoffs.

Perhaps Obama could publicly encourage (I know he can't tell them to) employers here to also take the long view and remind them that the more people laid off, the fewer who have any money to spend. At the very least, those companies who have decided periodic layoffs are a good thing whether they need them or not because they think a frightened workforce is more product should be encouraged to stop the practice.

A few American companies have figured this out (Aflac, The Container Store) and have done their best to avoid layoffs - even if it meant the CEO willingly took a cut in pay or bonus.

[AllentownJake]

2. Germany is more protective of it's own interest in general

You have to realize that while some employers really needed to do lay-offs other employers realized they had cover to off-shore more operations and blame it on the recession.

[AllentownJake]

3. Better keep a measured tone

No more talk like unemployment will peak at 8% with the stimulus bill. You are still in the middle of a mine field and it is best for you to remain cautiously optimistic.

[PSPS]

4. No problem. The banksters don't have to worry after Obama shoveled them $13 trillion of our money.

[TomCADem]

7. So, Obama Should Have Just Done A Hoover, And Let Them All Go Under?

As for nationalization of the weak banks that liberals were all pushing for? Well, no one may be noticing, but it is taking place.

[amandabeech]

17. Some of them probably would have been better off in receivership.

The others should have had many more conditions attached to the money.

One of those conditions should have been that investment banks who acquired commercial banks in order to have access to the discount window should be required to divest themselves of those banks once they paid back the TARP money. Now, Goldman Sux and Morgan Stanley are speculating with nearly 0% interest loans that they are getting from the Fed through the discount window.

[truthisfreedom]

5. The reason he's being so measured is because he knows the Great Depression II is around the corner

in about 2012.

Read this:

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/option-arms-enter-the-eye-of-the-hurricane-the-189-billion-recast-problem-targeted-directly-at-the-california-housing-market-of-189-billion-in-securitized-option-arms-109-billion-in-california/

Which contains this staggering graph, showing a massive upcoming wave of Alt-A, ARM, prime and sub-prime foreclosures, which will begin next year in earnest, and be at least as bad as the last wave of sub-primes:



Then read this:

http://marketoracle.co.uk/Article14668.html

Which contains this frightening graph:



Then read this:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aoRYl03Rw1_g

Then read this:

http://thegreatbustahead.com/

[TomCADem]

6. The Counter, Of Course, Is That He Could Just Make Happy Talk Like Bush in 2006

When it was mathematically clear that people could not keep the houses they bought with ARMS, and sub-prime loans were being given to anyone with a pulse. By repeatedly insisting that there was no recession, things didn't really start tanking until December 2007.

[AllentownJake]

8. Take a look at the S&P PE

[TomCADem]

9. Chicken and Egg - PE Ratios Are Based On Last 4 Quarters of Earnings

This is why the PE Ratios in late 2008, early 2009 looked fantastic even though stock prices were not significantly different from were they are now. What happened? Well, earnings crashed due to the, you guessed it, the recession. Now, if you assume that GDP continues to contract, then you will be right. But, if GDP starts to climb, then companies will earn more, and the PE ratio will improve even if stock prices remain flat.

This is discussed here:

http://www.dailymarkets.com/stocks/2009/09/15/sp-500-pe-ratio-for-september-2009/

[AllentownJake]

15. You are expecting earnings to catch up to

an over 140 to 1 PE ratio?

BTW GDP declined in the 3rd quarter if you back out stimulus spending. So I really don't see how a company that has nothing to do with the auto or housing industry is going to have a significant earnings turn around in the 4th quarter.

Actually I think automotive related industries will decline in November and December after inventories are rebuilt in September and October but of course you understand how a push demand forward program works.

[TomCADem]

18. Back out stimulus spending? What's the purpose?

Why not back out the prior 8 years under Bush, and the Iraq war while you are at it. I don't see the point of such a hypothetical. Plus, in another post, you were arguing that President Obama should focus on the economy. Now, you say that we should ignore the positive effects of the stimulus?

As for the auto industry, GM sales have gone up in October, but you may be right for other auto companies. Who knows?

[NickB79]

11. +1

Time to expand the garden and hatch some more chickens, and ask my grandma for recipes and tips on how they got through the 1930's.

[AllentownJake]

16. Yeah people think things move in a straight line.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_i47TEqZoAbw/ScWWQQhdO4I/AAAAAAAAAEw/OV2NGnTUkUc/s1600-h/1929-32+Stock+Market+Crash+Graph.jpg

[flyarm]

10. woo hoo ..great economy..but suckers..you lose your job!

and your health insurance, your home, you can't feed your kids ..and oh by the way..this democratic congress will not be holding hearings on extending unemployment benefits this week..if ever..but yeah..lets spend more on war!!!!!!!:sarcasm: :sarcasm: congress always has time for those war funding hearings and bills!:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm:

[corpseratemedia]

19. endless pointless wars where we use drugs and arms to fund both sides

indirectly helps our representatives fund their campaigns - and then they get out and get a super lobbying job, unlike the rest of us who lose ours...ain't gonna stop no gravy train like that!

mass murder funds their coffers..it just gets a bit tricky, you know, you gotta push a halfway believable reason to keep the disasters going..:sarcasm:

ugh:banghead:

[eridani]

12. Mandatory private insurance = elimination of discretionary income

--for millions, and ongoing economic decline.

[fasttense]

13. The GDP went up in 1933, in the middle of a raging depression.

It took another 6 years and a world war to finally bring America out of the 1st Republicon Great Depression.

But it should be noted, unemployment began to decrease in 1933 after reaching a high of about 21%. But that is more likely attributed to FDR's new deal policies (he was elected in 1932) than due to GDP growth. I see no signs of a decline in unemployment and neither does anyone else. In fact I hear all too often that we are experiencing a jobless recovery (as if there is such thing).

No, this 2nd Republicon Great Depression is here to stay for quite a long time, especially since we have no New Deal and No FDR in the White House.

[excess_3]

14. employment is slavery

newspeak