President Obama Declares Swine Flu A National Emergency

[Purveyor]

Source: Associated Press

(10-24) 08:49 PDT WASHINGTON (AP) --

President Barack Obama has declared the swine flu outbreak a national emergency.

The White House on Saturday said Obama signed a proclamation that would allow medical officials to bypass certain federal requirements. Officials described the move as similar to a declaration ahead of a hurricane making landfall.

Swine flu is more widespread now than it's ever been and has resulted in more than 1,000 U.S. deaths so far.

Health authorities say almost 100 children have died from the flu, known as H1N1, and 46 states now have widespread flu activity.

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/10/24/national/w082337D27.DTL

[bluestateguy]

1. Oh boy. The Glenn Beck crowd has weeks of new conspiracy material.

nt

[Purveyor]

4. "Glenn Beck crowd" aka BeckerHeads... eom

[diamidue]

84. The "Glenn Beck Crowd"?

49 Percent of doctors polled in Britain said they would refuse the vaccine.
http://www.congresscheck.com/2009/08/25/polls-half-of-doctors-will-refuse-to-take-swine-flu-shot/

These people are all Glenn Beck fans?

Or maybe not everyone wants to be shot up with unproven vaccines containing squalene, mercury and aluminum.

[DJ13]

2. This will drive the Reichwing over the edge

Their limited imaginations will see this as the first step towards being rounded up and put into camps.

Just watch.

[stray cat]

3. I think you will see some of that on DU as well

except it will be called fear mongering and feeding vaccine companies

[vadawg]

5. +100000,0000000,00000000, 000000,000

[northernlights]

8. another possibility is distraction

if you read through the economy forum and some posts on citibank, something big is rumoured to be going down sometime between this Monday and within the next 6 weeks or so. Citi and some other big banks with liquidity troubles appear to be throwing hail mary passes.

[Better Today]

19. Only for those that stop reading at the title or the OP, if they read the

whole article (at least the Reuters article, I haven't read the one linked in the OP) they will see that there is no intent to increase angst over the flu, just to be prepared for it should those preparations be needed.

As explained, it is like offering federal emergency status to an area when we know a hurricane is on its way, it allows the groups in responsible positions get everything ready, or to at least know that when they need to be readied, the path is clearer than it would be if we waited till after the hurricane hits to announce fed emergency status.

[zogofzorkon]

56. why would anyone question this?

The last "the plague is coming bring out your dead" disease was West Nile.. the mosquitoes are everywhere, be afraid, be very afraid. They were accurate on that one ... weren't they?

[Robb]

69. Kills people in my state every year. nt

[zogofzorkon]

73. Total US fatality West Nile 2007 CDC stats 124 . Traffic fatalities

nationwide 2007 41,096. We never spray for cars, are never told to stay away from areas with high concentrations of cars or to slather ourselves with car away. 124 deaths the new black death, be afraid, report dead birds, buy a mosquito fogger; 41,000 deaths drive carefully. Their mouths move but the sound doesn't make any sense.

[Robb]

111. I know how you feel. nt

[RobinA]

78. Wasn't It

just a few years ago we were all going to get smallpox? Can't remember if that was before or after West Nile. I haven't paid attention to what government has to say on health since they told me LSD would make me jump out a window and would suffer flashbacks if I survived the fall.

[Raschel]

22. Yep. They're scared down in Freeperville.

:scared:

[underpants]

60. They entire effort to poo-poo this has been nothing but politically driven

this should be the perfect test run for pandemics to come but the pork industry, factory farming, and the rightwing (inside DC really) have seen this as an effort to weaken Obama. Let's not forget that Sibellius's appointment was going to be held up for an abortion political show and then *poof* H1N1 (we aren't supposed to call it SwineFlu) hit and she was approved the next day. No one in the MSM will remind the masses of that FACT.

[underpants]

66. Look what I found

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=6849878&mesg_id=6849878

[earcandle]

6. Oh OH Obama walking into dickhead territory again. Must be making concessions. The last big PROFIT

for the whores of medicine. 

[uppityperson]

62. What the bloody hell are you going on about? nt

[SemiCharmedQuark]

158. Nobody knows...

[earcandle]

7. Dude 36000 die from regular flu annually. These stats are NOTHING. I bet this is a dupe.

[MilesColtrane]

11. Swine flu has 15X the fatality rate of the seasonal flu.

If the same number of people who get the regular flu every year get infected with H1N1, you would have over 500,000 dead in the U.S. alone.

[Better Today]

13. Proof please, everything I'm reading is that it is about the same, the only

difference I've read is that it is effecting the young more than the old which is unusual.

Secondly since no one know who really has gotten this particular strain, and it is being assumed to be H1N1 with no testing, no one really knows shit about the mortality rate of this virus in the US at this time.

[MilesColtrane]

14. flucount.org has the up to date CDC numbers

[Better Today]

15. The CDC doesn't have a clue as to the real numbers for H1N1,

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x6827636

and the related link here

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/10/21/cbsnews_investigates/main5404829.shtml

In late July, the CDC abruptly advised states to stop testing for H1N1 flu, and stopped counting individual cases. The rationale given for the CDC guidance to forego testing and tracking individual cases was: why waste resources testing for H1N1 flu when the government has already confirmed there's an epidemic?

Some public health officials privately disagreed with the decision to stop testing and counting, telling CBS News that continued tracking of this new and possibly changing virus was important because H1N1 has a different epidemiology, affects younger people more than seasonal flu and has been shown to have a higher case fatality rate than other flu virus strains.

CBS News learned that the decision to stop counting H1N1 flu cases was made so hastily that states weren't given the opportunity to provide input. Instead, on July 24, the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists, CSTE, issued the following notice to state public health officials on behalf of the CDC: ...

[itsrobert]

16. You're right. This is just a giveaway to Big Pharmaceuticals

in return for supporting Obama's Health care w/o a public option.

[caseymoz]

45. I can think of another interpretation: CDC already knew how bad it would be.

and if somebody is crushed under a 5,000 pounds, you don't bring them a scale to make sure it isn't 5,500.

I remember this news, and in fact, I think I posted on that very thread. My interpretation was that the CDC already realized that this was going to be bad, and didn't consider it to be a priority to be told that every week, and they thought the cost of testing a hundred million people for H1N1 would quickly overwhelm their budget, and the budgets of all public health departments.

They knew studying the virus' spread that it was, at least, the most contagious thing they had ever seen. The death rate is unknown. Indications have been that, so far, (in lieu of any mutations) it's not quite as high as the normal flu. But if it infects half the population, 150 million people, it could kill hundreds of thousands and could bring the country to a standstill for a month. I'm afraid we're not going to know death rate till after this is over, though. There's no accurate way to come up with it except by statistics after-the-fact.

Your interpretation is ripoff. Mine was, that's a very bad sign for all of us. Mine is supported by the fact that if it was all to give a sop to the pharma companies, why would they be late? Why the delay on vaccine, when to me, the fact that this flu is widespread is irrefutable.

[RobinA]

80. One Could Also

speculate that they stopped counting because the whole thing is bull. Went to my Dr. three years ago, I said I think I have West Nile (the pandemic of that moment). He said he doesn't test for West Nile because it isn't treatable and then it would have to be reported (if I did have West Nile). It's a virus and most people get over it like every other virus that normally floats around out there. Tested me for Lyme, which I had.

They probably stopped testing for swine because it wasn't proving to be a huge deal to most people, much like the regular flu, and reporting it would just cause chaos for Dr.s and the CDC. They don't report normal flu. And yes, seasonal and swine flu kill some people and then it is very serious. But the Black Plague scenario is just bunk.

[caseymoz]

166. You're right that a third of the US isn't going to die from this.

Or I'll put it like this, not without a very unlucky mutation or two. That still doesn't mean this is bull. Eighty million sick with one more than a hundred thousand people dying is extremely serious. Even if sixty million of those are mild cases. I don't call that bull. I also don't think its bull to prepare that it could turn more dangerous, because we could always have that unlucky die role. That being said, I really do not see what the "fear of hysteria" is here. This is the same American Public that has been shrugs off global warming and still demands "real" proof. The danger of hysteria is overstated.

It seemed that I agreed with you that testing for Swine Flu would "cause chaos." Read my description of what chaos might look like in that post. Using up all the time and budget on all the cases they are going to have.

Officials at both the CDC and the WHO have said it is spreading faster than any previous pandemic. A few school districts in my area have suspended classes-- earlier in the year than I remember any school district closing from sickness. One reported that a third of the students were sick.

I myself came down with it on September 2nd-- before I even thought precautions were necessary. Where did I catch it? Nearest I could figure is that I caught it at a doctor's office. I put my hands down on the counter, and forgot to wash them. My case was mild. My brother and mother came down with it after the briefest contact with me, when I thought I was coming down with my seasonal allergies. Their cases were decidedly not mild.

Given the speed of the spread of this and the fact that the briefest exposure seems to be enough to spread it-- I just don't think this is bull.

[arikara]

104. Nice try...

But it really isn't as dire as the fearmongers would have you believe.

[uppityperson]

125. Un-sourced chart=wtf? rapid flu test shows false neg 50%+ of time

I have done the rapid flu test on people and it has shown up negative, even when it is obvious they have all signs/symptoms of influenza. Come to find out that it shows a high percentage of false negatives. This means that if it comes back positive, good chance you have whichever (A or B) it shows. If it comes back negative, it doesn't mean much as there is such a high percentage of false negatives. Since the blood test takes longer, costs more, isn't as highly available or accessible, the statistics of people diagnosed by testing is way off.

By the way, an un-sourced graph is also "nice try".

[caseymoz]

168. That is far different information than what I've seen,

And it's un-sourced. Please provide the link, if it's not pie-chart-jokes.com .

[earcandle]

162. Bad science to say the least. And uncompassionate for those of us who are being peddled this stuff.

[caseymoz]

167. You'll have to attach that to something I said to make a point. nt

[diamidue]

79. hmmmm. Hadn't thought of that. You may be right...n/t

[S_E_Fudd]

30. The do have a clue on deaths...

Which are counted more carefully...they have simply stopped counting indivdual cases.

They can come up with a reasonable number by polling hospitalizations and assuming all flu related illness is H1N1. By that reckoning we are into several million people having contracted it...

[Better Today]

42. Totally unscientifc BS. "assume" = Ass - U - Me.

[earcandle]

163. Agreed!

[earcandle]

161. published by guess who? CDC numbers?

[eagertolearn]

18. especially since most of the people who have it right now are not

being tested and so it is not on record. The few that have been tested are H1N1 so they figure all the others are too. It is going through our small town like crazy right now and most are not being tested.

[stray cat]

26. Testing is being done by PCR - just not for your average person in the ER

and PCR is accurate. Mortality rate is lower than regular flu but we also know there have been more deaths of children in a month from H1N1 than in an entire season of seasonal flu.

[Better Today]

43. by PCR, wtf is PCR, and if the tests are not being done on all cases to determine

which type of flu, the stats are not reliable.

[boppers]

71. PCR = DNA testing to determine genetic strain.

See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymerase_chain_reaction

And no, not *all* cases need to be tested to ensure proper statistical sampling, a reasonable amount of cases can be used to extrapolate out the numbers. It's not like missing one person in, oh, Florida means that *all* the numbers are wrong.

Stats:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

[Better Today]

89. But if you read the CBS report, you'd find CDC said to stop testing, not to ease up on testing,

nor to give a sampling of testing, but to stop testing.

[boppers]

91. Break the numbers down.

37% of all test results were influenza (people often mistake a cold, food poisoning, etc. for the flu).

Of those who had the flu, 17,108 samples were H1N1 flu.
107 were not H1N1 flu.

Seventeen thousand, vs. 100. :wow:

Repeatedly running many more thousands of tests right now probably isn't going to change that ratio anytime soon. Testing later would make sense, but right now, if a person has the flu, it's a 171:1 chance it's H1N1. So, paying for lots of tests isn't exactly the best way to spend money.

[Better Today]

92. Sorry, you are not convincing me that have a clue what the real numbers are.

However, I really don't want to sit here and argue with you about the potential flaws being presented that you seem to take at face value.

Have a lovely day, enjoy the hype.

[boppers]

94. What "real numbers" are you looking for?

Yes, I do take CDC numbers fairly seriously, having dated and lived with, a Phd scientist who works there. They do not have hard numbers on every infection, and every death, but they do have numbers on current cases, past cases, they can measure models and accuracy, and they pay people to look for any, and every, flaw in their models, and then fix them.

Of course, if you're just looking for numbers that match your *personal* theories, maybe science just isn't your thing.

[joshcryer]

145. You seem to lack a basic understanding of statistics.

I think you're grasping at straws at this point in this discussion.

[earcandle]

164. are they fed more cold meats? FDA approved a bacteria eating virus to be sprayed on cold meats with

no warning to the public about what this virus could do inside
of us once ingested.

Could be the younger set already have a trigger.  

Or some such terrible set up that can cause this population to
be more affected.  

Maybe they are just not getting what we got when we were
younger and were vaccinated. 

[stray cat]

25. No - but if you're under 60 or pregnant you have a much higher risk of dying from H1N1

than seasonal flu

[S_E_Fudd]

31. Much higher is a relative term...

The chances are overwhelming that if you contract the virus...no matter what the age...you will get over it with little difficulty...

[progressivebydesign]

39. tell that to the woman from my knitting group that died...

..she was early 50s, no other health issues. Died within a week. Or maybe the little boy in ICU in my town, who also had no health issues, and is fighting for his life. That's the difference. the seasonal flu tends to hit people who already have health issues. This one does not. It is killing people who have no risk factors, and if we can't control it, it will come back again and again.. and pass it into the southern hemisphere again next year, until it mutates.

[Better Today]

44. I you are sure they are H1N1 and not some other flu? Seems they are no longer testing.

[gkhouston]

197. They are testing the people who die or are sick enough to be hospitalized.

It's schlubs like me who get miserably ill but not dangerously ill who aren't tested.

[Techn0Girl]

47. 28 Days Later....

Nice job of Fear and Misinformation.

The facts are that this flu has a lower death rate than ordinary flue. The facts are also that this flu does appear to spread rapidly. The facts are that this flu often infects younger poeple because the last outbreak of H1N1 flu, called the "russian flu" occurred around 1977 and thus most older people have a degree of immunity already to it.

Being hysterical about a flu for heavens sake does no one any good.

Obama declared it a national emergency. This makes it easier, legally, to do certain things to help people faster. It does NOT mean that we;re all going to die from Swine flu.

Please stop getting hysterical about it. It's a flu. Achoo. It's a flu that spreads rapidly. 36,000 people die of the flu every year. That's sad but it happens.

[barb162]

105. What's your source that H1N1 has a lower death rate than seasonal flu

[Techn0Girl]

107. What's my source???

The fricking CDC - google it . Learn something. {sigh}

[barb162]

109. I didn't see anything on their site that stated that.

Also since this is the first full H1N1 season we're entering and nowhere near ending until a few more months, where do you get that statement? Could you link the specific CDC page please.

And please tone down the rhetoric.

[Techn0Girl]

110. I didn't see anyhting on that site...

It was extremely difficult to uncover.
I googled "36,000 cdc flu deaths" . 4 words. 30 seconds time
You get this page as the very first result.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/us_flu-related_deaths.htm

Googling "cdc flu deaths annually"
gives you this page as the 2nd hit.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/keyfacts.htm

Both CDC pages give the 36,000 annual flu deaths a year figure.

It was not hard to find. It just took someone willing to do 30
seconds of research.

[barb162]

123. You still haven't answered my question or proved anything.

The question was: What's your source that H1N1 has a LOWER DEATH RATE than seasonal flu? Link please.

Going on and on about the average 36,000 deaths for the seasonal flu when we have't been through even ONE full season of the H1N1 flu doesn't prove anything. Again, where is your link showing H1N1 has a lower death rate than seasonal flu?

Or let me put it to you this way:
Do you or don't you have some information showing that H1N1 has a lower death rate than seasonal flu?

Whether we end up having a 100,000 or 10,000 deaths or some other number from H1N1 this season is unknown to me. You seem to say you do know so produce the evidence already.

[Name removed]

133. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[MilesColtrane]

165. You seem to be confusing total deaths with the death rate.

Seasonal flu infects 5-20% of the U.S. population every year.

Total population of the U.S. =308million

5-20% of that =15,400,000-61,600,000

An average of 36,000 of those infected die every year.

The death rate for seasonal flu = .2%-.06% per year.

H1N1 has, so far killed 1099 out of an unconfirmed 67971 infected...death rate = 1.6%
1099 dead out of an confirmed 44,555...death rate = 2.4%

Of course you won't accept these numbers because they don't jibe with your preconceived notion that the CDC, WHO, 'Big Pharma', Bilderbergers, and Illuminati are all in cahoots trying to sell vaccine. (which, by the way, they were too incompetent to even generate a large enough supply of)

[Techn0Girl]

169. Unless you can give me figures from the CDC or WHO....

or a peer reviewed journal ....then the figures are something that you made up.

As another poster already said "On the Internets ... nobody knows that you're not a doctor."

[Cerridwen]

179. The WHO and the CDC. Knock yourself out.

I mean that sincerely. Knock yourself out.

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/current-season.htm

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/qa.htm

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/sick.htm

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/surveillanceqa.htm

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/2003/fs211/en/

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no01/05-1254.htm

[Techn0Girl]

182. Knock yourself out ...

Specifically you make these assertions ....
"H1N1 has, so far killed 1099 out of an unconfirmed 67971 infected...death rate = 1.6%
1099 dead out of an confirmed 44,555...death rate = 2.4%"

1. How can you possibly make a death rate estimate for "unconfirmed" infected rates. Were all of them H1N1 were 1/2 of them H1N1? You don't say nor do you give a specific link to your source for the figures - you merely gave me a dozen links. On which link id the infected rate stats? Who knows?

Specifically though YOU are making up stats. YOU are not a researcher. YOU are just some poster on the internet. Show me the CDC stats or else show me a peer reviewed journal stats. I already posted the link to the Harvard researcher who IS qualified - ran the stats and concluded that H1N1 is showing a lower mortality rate overall than expected and in fact lower than for most influenza - his words not mine. His stats not mine.

Forgive me if I go with the Harvard educated researcher rather than the DU poster on this thing.

[Cerridwen]

184. Uh, that would be the CDC making those assertions.

You really have a tough time with reading for comprehension, don't you?

I suggest you question the CDC experts as they're the ones whose sites and statistics I linked.

[barb162]

188. It's amazing. Thank you for all of those links.

:eyes:
:) :) :)
:hi:

Maybe we'll actually get a response of what the death rate is for swine flu rather than hearing inane repititious garbage????? Ya' think?
:)

I can't figure how someone can say "A" has a higher death rate than "B" without knowing death rates for both A and B.

[Cerridwen]

192. You're welcome.

That particular poster is dangerously ignorant. I didn't want her to get away with all that misinformation and distraction without posting some of the facts and stats that show her ignorance and which might cause someone to take H1N1 lightly.

I did however, get one thing from this poster I've never gotten before. I was actually told when I was being put on ignore. That's my first.

I'm so proud. LOL

:hi:

[barb162]

194. Congratulations then

on that worn out "ignore" threat. :)

I just found out yesterday a very healthy reative/student at U of WI got very sick with H1N1 last week and his case is confirmed. He now has pneumonia from it and is expected to recover. This thing is dangerous and I hope they get the flu shots rolled out soon.

[Cerridwen]

195. I'm glad to hear about your relative. That he's doing okay, I mean.

I just re-read how I first wrote that and had to edit to say, I mean I'm happy to hear he's going to be okay. Not that he was diagnosed with H1N1. Eek.

I hope they get the vaccines going and I hope that people are judiciously cautious. I also hope this administration does a good job of doing their job during this time.

There is never a good time for something like this to happen, but it sure doesn't help that we're in the midst of a health care "crisis" and an economic "crisis" at the same time.

The potential for this to get truly ugly would terrify me if it had happened under the repub watch. :scared:

[barb162]

203. Thank you again,

He was given powerful antibiotics for this bacterial pneumonia he developed from the H1N1. This kid( ha, kid, he's about 6'4" and a junior) is very healthy and I hear he's improving rapidly.


The vaccines being delivered... there is none at all in my county as of last week. The county health dept and my doc's office said they hoped to get some in by the end of October. When they get some in, I don't know how they'll be doling it out. Yes, under Bush, I bet the vaccine wouldn't even be ordered yet.

[uppityperson]

205. Thank you for all your time and efforts

very much appreciate you.

[Cerridwen]

210. You're welcome and thank you for saying so.

I just can't stomach people who spew garbage and then try to call it fact.

Too many years of fighting neo-cons, I guess. 8-\

[barb162]

189. Excellent links...THANK YOU!

Especially that first one and this one:
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/surveillanceqa.htm
which contains the statement:
"From April 15, 2009 to July 24, 2009, states reported a total of 43,771 confirmed and probable cases of novel influenza A (H1N1) infection. Of these cases reported, 5,011 people were hospitalized and 302 people died."

Even the hospitalization rate is very high, which I had not known... about 1 of 9 people were being hospitalized.

[Cerridwen]

191. Yeah. While I don't want people to panic, I do think we need people

to take this seriously.

A lot of people suffer no lasting problems with H1N1 and recover okay. Some do not and it's known, for the most part, what contributes to that.

I guess I just want people to be as vigilant about their health as they are able and not get caught unawares as ignoramuses deny the seriousness of this new flu.

[Art_from_Ark]

201. Low supply + high demand = higher prices

Just saying

[Cerridwen]

178. The bottom line is you don't know what the hell you're citing.

"The bottom line is that H1N1 flu is a rapidly spreading flu that has a low death rate associated with it."

See other posts. CDC says the death rate is "proportionally higher" than what is normally expected.


"The facts are that over 36,000 people die of flu each and every year and less than 1500 have died this year"

Right numbers. Wrong context. Look up the word ~proportional~.


"(3/4's over - helllooo.... ) from H1N1 flu according to the CDC."

See post re: calendar year not same as flu season. Helllloooooooo.


"A fifth grader could do the math."

Maybe. But you suck at it.

[barb162]

193. The flu season is just revving up

and began about a month ago according to the CDC and other applicable links you kindly provided in another post. To compare a prior complete flu season(s) with a season that has just started results in data that's inaccurate. A a month to month or week to week comparison would be more accurate. Sept 08 with Sept 09, etc. And if one does that, the H1N1 is looking very dangerous compoared to the seasonal flu.

[barb162]

186. It appears you're unwilling to answer a straightforward question

asking for a link to prove your (unsupported) opinion. Endlessly rehashing that there were 36,000 deaths from seasonal flu doesn't provide proof that H1N1 has a lower death rate than seasonal flu. Unless you know the death rates for both types of flu, you can't say one has a lower death rate than the other. Don't you agree?

[uppityperson]

154. How DARE you ask for answers again?

insert generalized almost-insult along with huffing off "I already TOLD you but you just won't see it" huff.

Ah well, probably for the best that we are on that ignore list, isn't it? Thank you for trying.

[barb162]

187. Bwa, it's a real challenge, isn't it?

:hi:

[Name removed]

127. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Cerridwen]

177. Not big on statistics, are ya?

The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) based on the 122 Cities Report has increased and has been higher than what is expected at this time of year for two weeks. (emphasis added) CDC link

After that "30 seconds of research," I strongly suggest you actually read what you find. Research goes a bit beyond just googling.

[uppityperson]

126. those who give "facts" are responsible for backing them up with source info

That is how it works here on internetland. Perhaps you may learn something also?

[Cerridwen]

176. Rather than just "googling" the CDC site, why don't you try actually

reading what you're linking.

"Learn something. {sigh}" No shit.

[Cerridwen]

175. Speaking of "misinformation"...

"The facts are that this flu has a lower death rate than ordinary flue. {sic}"

The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) based on the 122 Cities Report has increased and has been higher than what is expected at this time of year for two weeks. (emphasis added) link

"the last outbreak of H1N1 flu, called the "russian flu" occurred around 1977 and thus most older people have a degree of immunity already to it."

Wow. You finally got one right.

...in 1977 an age-restricted pandemic was caused by the revisitation of an H1N1 virus and its ability to infect persons who had not experienced the virus earlier. CDC link

"It's a flu that spreads rapidly."

For which, many do not have an immunity.

[RobinA]

196. Russian Flu

was H1N1 during that 1977 horror show? I was in college. EVERYbody got it. It's a toss up as to whether I was sicker with that or Lyme, but one of them was the sickest I've ever been. Nobody I know who's sick now is even close to experiencing what we went through at that time. That was nasty.

[MilesColtrane]

82. That depends on if you consider 1 in 62 "overwhelming".

[Better Today]

90. Again, please provide a link to some proof and quit talking out your....

[MilesColtrane]

122. Since you didn't pay attention to my last response,...

...here it is again.

http://www.flucount.org

Look for the table that says, "Death Rate Per Infection".

[Techn0Girl]

139. A funny thing about FLUCOUNT.ORG ...

When I try to look up it's domain owner's name and address on geektools.org -
ALL the identifying information on it - ALL of it - is hidden.
In fact they broke ICANN rules bu refusing to list a name and address.

Since I KNOW that shielding actual information is a favorite lobbyist and astroturf tactic -
I have to wonder if flucount.org is biased somehow - they certainly are paranoid about people finding out who they actually are. Why is that do you think?

Oh and one more thing... on the front page flucount.org links to TheVaccination.com which is ANOTHER
site that is completely devoid of proper domain name information . You can confirm that by this link:
http://who.godaddy.com/WhoIs.aspx?domain=thevaccination.com&prog_id=godaddy

It looks like an astroturf campaign by Big Pharma to me.
And it should to you too.

[uppityperson]

153. Good lord you throw a lot around. Makes many of us wonder why you are here

Seriously. You an opinion, they say "google it" along with an insult. Good grief

[Cerridwen]

180. You cite a John Birch Society website then challenge flucount.org?

Speaking of "paranoid" and "astroturf."

[Techn0Girl]

202. You do not have a much higher chance of dying from Swine Flu...

What you're saying is as nonsensical as Birther B.S.

Every researcher out there has indicated that H1N1 death rates are somewhat lower than seasonal flu.

Go believe what you will.
There are uneducated and superstitious people on both political sides.

[uppityperson]

206. Thank you for proving your last point. eom

[caseymoz]

27. Not quite. If half the US were to get it, as Obama once said,

then, assuming its mortality rate is just slightly below the normal flu, 500,000 people could die-- on top of the 36,000 people who die of the normal flu.

There's no evidence that it is much more deadly than the seasonal flu-- yet. Though its mortality among otherwise healthy adolescents and young adults is suggestive. We'll start seeing mutant variants soon, though.

It probably has surpassed the number of cases in a normal flu season already.

[S_E_Fudd]

29. Not true...

The rate is in fact lower. Estimates are several million in the US have contracted yet only 1000 deaths so far...well below seasonal rates. In addition, the sourthern hemisphere has gone through a flu season since the outbreak without a mortality rate anywhere near what you suggest.

The number of deaths may be higher this year because more people than usual will contract the virus. But the mortality rate appears to be on par or lower than seasonal...

[tabasco]

37. That's not true at all.

Where are you getting your information?

[Techn0Girl]

46. Swine Fl has LOWER death rates than ordinary flu

I don't know if you're an industry shill or just MASSIVELY ill informed but the facts are that swine flu has, to date, a far lower death rate than regular flu. Regular flu accounts for 36,000 deths a year in the U.S. . Swine flu thus far has accounted this year (3/4's over) for less than 1500. These stats are on the CDC website.


You are completely and utterly wrong

[uppityperson]

64. So far fewer have died from H1N1 influenza this year in USA.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=6847607&mesg_id=6847607

[barb162]

190. What is the swine flu death rate. Link? n/t

[barb162]

200. The death rate for H1N1 is what? The death rate for seasonal flu is what?

Please state it in terms of confirmed cases per 1000 and use a valid time period, such as October 2009.

DO you find it odd Obama declared a national emergency over H1N1 if it's all so minor as you like to portray it?

[Divine Discontent]

57. exactly.

[earcandle]

160. Like with the Blagojevich outcome, I will wait to see in the end what happens. Not listen to hype.

[Better Today]

12. It's not a dupe, but it is conveniently edited here. To read the

whole article from Reuters, it clearly states, that the President clearly states, nothing has changed.

I repeat NOTHING HAS CHANGED, nothing has gotten worse.

This is a normal pre-emptive stance to allow medical care givers and facilities to wive certain restrictions in case things get worse, like setting up off site, temporary clinics which are not usually allowed for Medicare/Medicaid reimbursements.

[caseymoz]

32. And you'd lose.

The ongoing stats are going to look much, much lower. For one thing, those are just the people who died in the hospital. Those aren't from people dying who die in their homes. Medical examiners haven't reported to the CDC yet and the death rates that they are seeing, and what from. There's no word from the CDC on what's happening in places like nursing homes, those haven't even been reported to the CDC.

You notice the CDC doesn't give anything near an exact number of total cases. In my city, they have districts closing down because a third of the students and teachers are out and another third were showing symptoms. And remember, the flu season normally starts at the beginning of October. Already this is at the January-February level.

At most, we're going to get some indication of how bad this is. Look at your local school closings. We're going to get only the most sketchy numbers as to the cases and the number of deaths.

I'm lucky. I got the damn thing in early September. It was mild-to-moderate for me.

[S_E_Fudd]

35. They are tracking it like they track regular flu...

Poll hospitals and assume all cases of flu-like illness are H1N1...by that reckoning we are at several million cases

There have been no significant reports of outbreaks at nursing homes. In fact the elderly are least at risk because they have some immunity.

Deaths are counted fairly accurately. We are looking at a virus with a death rate at or below seasonal flu....with different demographic groups bearing the brunt compared to seasonal flu. We are getting more infections and thus more deaths in absolute terms, but the rate is no higher...

Vaccine is being rolled out so although you are correct it has spiked up way earlier than seasonal, it may also subside earlier as well...

Bottom line...for an individual who has contracted the virus...you are overwhelmingly likely to experience mild to moderate symptoms on a par with seasonal flu, and are overwhelmingly unlikely to have any complications...

[caseymoz]

52. I haven't seen them publish any polls of hospitals.

Several million people sounds like it might be accurate. I would agree that the death rate of this flu is about the same as the seasonal flu. (No mutations have occurred, though).

If we have several million cases now, and this thing is just getting started, the flu shots are too late, they going to be almost useless in stopping the overall spread.

It might subside earlier, but is it doing that in any other country? How often have flues subsided earlier?

It could happen, anything could happen.

For people in nursing homes, I did not mean now, I meant when they checked in retrospect. I wasn't aware that the elderly's residual immunity was that strong.

All I am saying is, government precautions here are justified, and should not be seen as having some kind of ulterior motive.

It's dangerous. It's not a 1919 epidemic, yet. It's a mutation or two away from that, and might run its course without getting that bad.

[Igel]

55. However, the CDC does report test results.

Test results from October. Pretty randomly taken.

61%, IIRC, was H1N1. Another 30-some percent was Type A, but whether H1N1 or some other Type A influenza they couldn't say--the test wasn't specific enough. All other influenzas, including other identified Type A influenza strains, accounted for something like 5% of the flu cases for the first week or two of October.

In other words, of the flu strains precisely identified the results were that H1N1 accounted for well over 90% of flu cases. There being no reason to suppose that the generic Type A flu tests tested something other than a random sample, you'd have to predict that 90%+ of those were also H1N1.

So if you saw a flu case in early October, you'd have probably been 90-95% accurate to just say, "Yup, swine flu."

[progressivebydesign]

36. this flu is different. Only a handful of people have immunity to it, and it's hitting children hard.

The rates of child infections is astronomical in comparison to other flu. The problem IS that children, who are the worst for spreading germs in schools and such, are infected at such a high rate that they're infecting the community around them. this flu is not the same as the seasonal one. First, it's not seasonal, second it's much easier to catch, third the don't KNOW if it will mutate as it spreads and spreads.

Also.. this flu has a strange component that is causing deep lung damage that isn't seen in other flus. People are getting pulmonary embolisms and other deep injuries.

I'm usually the first to say that things are being hyped up, but this flu is bad news. A woman in my knitting group (early 50s, no prior health issues) just died of it a few weeks ago. Her last post online was "fevers gone, and I'm starting to feel a bit better." Then she died. It's serious stuff.

[Techn0Girl]

48. A woman I knew died....

I am sorry about the loss of your friend but the facts are that 36,000 people die of the flu each and every year. The only way that this flu is different is that less people appear to be dying from it than the average flu. It does appear to spread somewhat rapidly so the bad news is that you have a better chance than average to end up in bed for several days with the flu. On the other hand you are less likely to die from it.

Again, I am sorry about your friend, but the only reports that matter are the ones from CDC that are saying not that many people are dying form it as compared to the average flu.

[Techn0Girl]

49. This flu has a stange component in it....

"Also.. this flu has a strange component that is causing deep lung damage that isn't seen in other flus. People are getting pulmonary embolisms and other deep injuries."

I think you need to watch less television.
Unless you can back up you "strange component in it" theory with a medical journal or CDC stats regarding lung embolisms you're just talking out of your butt.

[caseymoz]

53. If I may:

However, does this count:

http://www.medpagetoday.com/InfectiousDisease/URItheFlu/16441

If not, you might read the original article in American Journal of Roentgenology.

Or how about this:

http://www.diagnosticimaging.com/display/article/113619/1475468?verify=0

These are, of course, preliminary, and won't post-liminary until long after this is over, and will hopefully inform people in the next flu pandemic.

Watching TV too much? What an awful, presumptuous, uninformed criticism about her for you to make. You criticize her for ignorance and you couldn't even Google, or Yahoo, or slashdot, or anything to see what she might be talking about.

[uppityperson]

128. thank you for your post. Very much appreciate it and agree.

[Shoelace]

51. 36,000 people do NOT die each year from "regular" flu!!!!

a fact that is readily available and has been known by some of us for a long time. Here's how they got that number and you can read the rest of it at the link.


The 36,000 number, it turns out, was pulled out of thin air. It has no scientific validity whatsoever, even according to the CDC's own standards.

I tracked down the origins of this number on CDC.gov, by the way. Turns out it was an estimate derived by the CDC in 2003 (http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/pres...).

It's an estimate, mind you, not a "confirmed" number of deaths. And that estimate has stayed exactly the same through 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009. Not a budge. Before the number was 36,000, it was 20,000 for many years. That tells you right off the bat this isn't some confirmed laboratory number -- it's a guesstimate!

I'm not disagreeing with the number. It's probably a fairly accurate guess (the CDC folks are a smart bunch). But it doesn't meet the criteria by which these infectious disease organizations report influenza deaths.

As the CDC even says on their own website, "This estimate came from a 2003 study published in the Journal of the American Medication Association (JAMA), which looked at the 1990-91 through the 1998-99 flu seasons <10>. Statistical modeling was used to estimate how many flu-related deaths occurred among people whose underlying cause of death on their death certificate was listed as a respiratory or circulatory disease. During these years, the number of estimated deaths ranged from 17,000 to 52,000."

In other words, they took a look at how many people died from respiratory or circulatory disease, and from that they extrapolated "flu-related deaths."

http://www.naturalnews.com/026169_swine_flu_CDC_influenza.html

[caseymoz]

54. I'm sorry, you and your source have lost your minds.

Confirmed cases and estimates are two different things. Anybody should know that. His claim that the "estimate" should be only "confirmed deaths" is like saying a first down doesn't count unless it's a touchdown. There's just enough truth to that to throw a whole football game into chaos.

The rate might vary in a year between 17-52,000. In the middle, that would be 34,500. Let's round that down. 34,000. It's not going to be a steady number, it may be higher and it may be lower.

Given the state of public health in this country, with a rather decentralized public health system, and the fact that flu outbreaks are considered routine, that pneumonia has about a thousand different causes and a thousand different complications, and that flu tests are pretty expensive, it would be hard to come up with a good estimate.

I would write your Congressmen and demand that the CDC come out with a better estimate. I will stick with 34,000, give or take about half of that, in a normal season.

[Shoelace]

75. it's the op of the righties when they flip out over dangerous vaccines

they always say that 36,000 people die each year not knowing the real dangers of this flu bug. It's as if they dismiss it by throwing out that number (along with paranoid missives about how Obama has just sabotaged our constitution, et al). Further, by hanging with that number, folks aren't paying attention to what and how they should prepare for alot of illness around the country and how to best deal with it.

No I've not lost my mind (yet:shrug: ) but by reading your other posts I gather you realize as I do what we can expect in terms of real infection/death rates as compared to average deaths per year, and ways to prepare for such events as this. I do agree with your numbers too.
BTW, there's up to date news on flutrackers.com which I have found very helpful in understanding the course of this novel virus. :fistbump:

[Snazzy]

138. I was looking up a similar CDC number recently

for foodborne illness. 76 million US keeps being thrown around. Turns out it was a 2000-ish CDC study using 90's data and a lot of extrapolating. Like you say, if someone is to make a guess, it's good that it's the CDC that are guessmakers in chief I suppose. With food poisoning I found it somewhat alarming that in New York there basically isn't much of a system--if one restaurant causes an outbreak, basically, I think, it will involve a lot of luck or a lot of cases for it to be identified. Some states are better, and some illnesses track more easily. 76 million, if that is a good guess, shows how out of control food safety is of course.

36K with seasonal flu is a case of apples and oranges of course. No good numbers till into or after the flu season. Trends are alarming.

Not just the right. Someone tell Obama to stop being hysterical :sarcasm:

[Name removed]

140. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Snazzy]

143. what facts? what preconception?

I didn't mention either.

On the contrary I note that in your effort to be rude whenever possible, you are the one attempting to use some form of divination to peer into people's souls and derive both an agenda and facts not in evidence.

It must be a very comforting to know it all.

[Cerridwen]

181. Actually, the CDC has *contradicted* every post you've made

with one minor exception.

"LAMO!" {sic}

Funny. I was thinking LAME-O!

edit for formatting

[caseymoz]

146. Read "Fast Food Nation."

What's in that book about our entire hazardous food industry will make you anorexic.

[Snazzy]

149. yeah I should

every time I do the smallest amount of investigation into big food and our regs I come up with something toxic (for example, looking into Smithfield's operations in Mexico and NC at the start of this outbreak).

Around here another CVS is replacing the former grocery store. Drugs + Doritos. 2nd or third neighborhood I've seen this happen to last 6 years or so.

[barb162]

100. How many more millions or billions should be spent

digging up graves to do autopsies on long dead people to make sure what they really died of in the 1990s. Was it 10% heart disease, 20% pneumonia and 70% flu? When ever there are multiple conditions, things get messy.

I won't be writing to Congress.

[barb162]

99. Thanks for clarifying as some around here are throwing around that 36000

figure like it's written by God. It's just an estimate after a lot of massaging.

[Name removed]

134. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[uppityperson]

63. US swine flu deaths surpass 1,000, Bonus chart timeline influenza trends

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=6847607&mesg_id=6847607

"I bet this is a dupe"? Dupe of what? Seasonal influenza hasn't started up yet.

[Hansel]

129. Dude 36,000 people die from the flu annually. Such compassion.

Dude, there is also a seasonal flu that 36,000 people will die from this year according to you, a hell of a lot less than probably would die from it if so many weren't getting flu shots and a hell of a lot more than necessary. 36,000 is a hell of a lot of people if you or your family are one of them. And with H1N1 that number could double. Funny isn't it, Dude?

I almost died from influenza years back because I have asthma and had a compromised immune system. I still have asthma and just had major surgery so again have a compromised immune system due to medication to suppress inflammation. I was informed by my doctor a month ago I am a priority for the shot but still have another month to go before I can get it.

I get the flu shot every year so I don't end up being 36,001. I have not gotten the flu since taking the flu shot and hope I don't get H1N1 this year. Being in intensive care waiting to find out if you're going to live or die is not fun, especially when you have family to leave behind and would be otherwise healthy (in this case when my surgery heals). Especially if you are allergic to multiple families of antibiotics.

I'm glad this is something you think is such a joke or the death of people from something so controllable is something to mock or poo-poo. Act like a pompous clown all you want, but some of us do have legitimate reasons for concern.

[earcandle]

159. YOu always project on me that my intentions have some evil in them. You should look in the mirror

and ask yourself why you see what you see. 
This isn't me. 

[dixiegrrrrl]

9. "removing medical privacy regulations" ???????

"The goal is to remove bureaucratic roadblocks and make it easier for sick people to seek treatment and medical providers to provide it immediately. That could mean fewer hurdles involving Medicare, Medicaid or health privacy regulations."

Remember, under a "National Emergency" most rights ARE up for grabs, and by law Obama has to state which provisions of the Act are to be invoked. In Advance.
"the National Emergencies Act limits the president's ability to declare emergencies by requiring that they expire within two years unless specifically extended, and that the president specify in advance which legal provisions will be invoked"
(got this from Wiki, if anyone is interested)



"Health authorities say almost 100 children have died from the flu,...."

World Wide?
Just USA?
What???!!!???

"Since most countries have stopped counting individual swine flu cases,...."
how the hell does anyone know it is an epidemic????
Is regular flu being counted as swine flu, and how would we know???

[barbtries]

10. it also says

Hospitals could modify patient rules — for example, requiring them to give less information during a hectic time — to quicken access to treatment, with government approval.

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/10/24/national/w082337D27.DTL#ixzz0UsKZ6nfS


here in NC it is definitely an issue.

[northernlights]

24. because tis not the season for the "regular" flu

Regular flu is seasonal. Tests are showing the vast majority of cases are the swine flu, not seasonal. And it was declared a pandemic before they stopped counting.

When seasonal hits alongside swine, it could be a nightmare. Getting one right after the other...or at the same time...

A couple DUers in hard-hit areas have reported hospitals being overwhelmed with treatment tents set up for the overflow.

[progressivebydesign]

34. thank you for that! This flu is making flu-"season" a year-round event...

thanks for being a voice of reason here.

[uppityperson]

65. Chart of influenza Trends/activity, shows for last 6 yrs.

"seasonal" influenza hasn't hit yet.

Link to my topic earlier,
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=6847607&mesg_id=6847607

Direct link. Click on a country, then state/province/etc
http://www.google.org/flutrends/

[Techn0Girl]

50. Tests are showing ....

WTF?
Where do people like yourself GET this misinformation? The Glen Beck Medical hour?

Of COURSE this flu is seasonal just like any other flu.
If you just take the time to educate yourself and look at this CDC chart:
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/#iligraph

you can see that the figures spiked in March and in October just like any other flu.

Now go back to viewing Steven King's "The Stand" and leave medical analysis to people who actually know what they are doing.

Bottom line:
1. H1N1 has been around at least 3 other times since 1910. It tends to spread quickly. You get the flu. achoo...snigg..sniff... . This version of it is actually killing less people than ordinary yearly flu. If a whole lot of people get a flu and are in bed for a week than it impacts things - on the other hand the lnes at the DMV will be shorter - bonus!

That's the bottom line. Anything else is just fear and misinformation spread by people who either are very sadly misinformed or have a deep seated hero complex.

[uppityperson]

68. Look at the chart here, notice the trends with this year being so different?

Chart of influenza Trends/activity, shows for last 6 yrs. Click on a country, then state/province/district. Notice the early hump for this yr, with the H1N1 influenza activity? No, this is not just "seasonal influenza". Good grief, aside from all your nasty accusations and implications, your "spiked in October just like any other flu" is wrong since, at least for the last 6 yrs, it hasn't spiked til much later.



http://www.google.org/flutrends/

[Techn0Girl]

106. Boooo!

I know it's close to Halloween so Booo ! to you to.
The flu season spiked a little early this year yes. H1N1 came a bit early. Booo!
But it is still has a lower mortality rate than the average flu. Booo? Not so much.

And there are LOADS of other charts and figures at CDC.
Stop seeing what you want to see.

[uppityperson]

124. With all due respect, seasonal influenza hasn't struck yet, and you should take your own advice

stop seeing what you want to see.

Post reputable source for your allegation "it still has a lower mortality rte than the average flu".

[Techn0Girl]

131. Post reputible sources....

Is it SO hard to google for 30 seconds these days?
Geez Louise....

Googling FOUR words "H!N! mortality rate lower"

yeilds...

http://www.thenewamerican.com/index.php/usnews/health-care/1901-h1n1-swine-flu-death-rate-is-low

which has a quote from a leading doctor at Harvard University who specializes in
infectious disease tracking

I could find HUNDREDS of these citations stating swine flu death rate is low or even lower
than the average flu but you need to do your own work.

[uppityperson]

132. I expect you turned in reports @ school saying "do your own work, find your own sources".

Like in school, you claim something, YOU are responsible for backing it up.

[Cerridwen]

171. "Post reputible {sic} sources...." You go first. Your link goes to a site

owned by The John Birch Society.

From their "About" page:

In addition to political topics, The New American also publishes articles about economics (from a free-enterprise perspective of course!), culture, and history. It is published by American Opinion Publishing, a wholly owned subsidiary of The John Birch Society.

Oh yeah, emphasis definitely added.

"I could find HUNDREDS of these citations..."

Yeah, but can you find any that are "reputible"?

[barb162]

199. That article was written 9/16/09 when the flu season was just barely starting.

Your own source here states: "With the Northern Hemisphere flu season looming with the pending of winter, Lipsitch said uncertainty remains about the nature of the flu’s coming second round. Though H1N1 is so far not as severe as past flu epidemics, it is clear that some will die from the ailment, Lipsitch said."
http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2009/10/lipsitch-catches-the-flu-in-action/

[uppityperson]

207. John Birch Society is a reputable source for DU? Um, no. Try again.

[northernlights]

119. with all due respect

my information comes from the CDC and WHO websites, along with science daily.

This most certainly is not the seasonal flu. It has an entirely different genome, made up of a combination of 2 different swine flus from different continents, H5N1 avian flu and human flu. It also has the ability to infect the lungs, which seasonal flu does not.

[Techn0Girl]

141. The biggest source of Flu deaths is....

Pneumonia. So regular influenza does indeed affect the lungs .
I actually have no idea of what you mean by regular flu does not infect the lungs like this flu does. The H1N1 flu has this far, including the Spring outbreak, had a lower death count then average influenza virus. This flu has accounted for only 1500 of the 36,000 U.S. flu deaths that happen each year (according to CDC stats) . SO with the year 3/4's of the way it takes only an eighth grade education to see that H1N1 deaths have accounted for only about less than 7-10% of total U.S. flu deaths - projecting out to the end of the year.

Most flu breaks out around week 10 (March ) of a given year. There is nothing especially scary about an influenza that chooses to break out at a different time. Since we don't really know the reasons why most flus break out during week 10 we can make no assertions about flus that break out at other times. None at all. It's meaningless more or less.

[uppityperson]

152. cytokine storm. As you so often write, google it.

[Cerridwen]

172. Calendar year does not equal flu season.

"The H1N1 flu has this far, including the Spring outbreak, had a lower death count then average influenza virus."

Severity is uncertain. Many people do not have immune protection against this new and very different 2009 H1N1 virus, which has spread worldwide quickly and has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). Scientists believe the 2009 H1N1 virus – along with regular seasonal viruses – will cause illness, hospital stays, and deaths this flu season in the United States. There is concern that the 2009 H1N1 virus may cause the season to be worse than a regular flu season – with a lot more people getting sick, being hospitalized and dying than during a regular flu seasonal. (emphasis added) Yep, it's the CDC again

Visits to doctors for influenza-like illness (ILI) increased steeply since last week in the United States, and overall, are much higher than what is expected for this time of the year. ILI activity now is higher than what is seen during the peak of many regular flu seasons.

Total influenza hospitalization rates for laboratory-confirmed flu are climbing and are higher than expected for this time of year.

The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) based on the 122 Cities Report has increased and has been higher than what is expected at this time of year for two weeks. (emphasis added) CDC link

"SO with the year 3/4's of the way"

Wow. Wrong again. Calendar year does not equal flu season.

The Flu Season
In the Northern hemisphere, winter is the time for flu. The timing and duration of flu seasons vary. While flu outbreaks can happen as early as October, most of the time influenza activity peaks in January or later. During the past 26 flu seasons, months with the heaviest flu activity (peak months) occurred in November one season, December four seasons, January five seasons, February 12 seasons, and March four seasons.

As noted previously, this particular strain of flu showed up during the summer months rather than the winter. Again, from the CDC.

Timing is uncertain. In past years, seasonal flu activity typically did not reach its peak in the U.S. until January or February, but flu activity has occurred as late as May. However, the 2009 H1N1 virus caused illness, hospitalizations, and deaths in the U.S. during the summer months when influenza is very uncommon. So it is not known when flu activity will increase, when it will be most intense (peak), what viruses will circulate, or how long the season might last.

"Most flu breaks out around week 10 (March ) of a given year. There is nothing especially scary about an influenza that chooses to break out at a different time. Since we don't really know the reasons why most flus break out during week 10 we can make no assertions about flus that break out at other times. None at all. It's meaningless more or less."

"The H1N1 flu has this far, including the Spring outbreak, had a lower death count then average influenza virus."

Severity is uncertain. Many people do not have immune protection against this new and very different 2009 H1N1 virus, which has spread worldwide quickly and has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). Scientists believe the 2009 H1N1 virus – along with regular seasonal viruses – will cause illness, hospital stays, and deaths this flu season in the United States. There is concern that the 2009 H1N1 virus may cause the season to be worse than a regular flu season – with a lot more people getting sick, being hospitalized and dying than during a regular flu seasonal. (emphasis added) Yep, it's the CDC again

Visits to doctors for influenza-like illness (ILI) increased steeply since last week in the United States, and overall, are much higher than what is expected for this time of the year. ILI activity now is higher than what is seen during the peak of many regular flu seasons.

Total influenza hospitalization rates for laboratory-confirmed flu are climbing and are higher than expected for this time of year.

The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) based on the 122 Cities Report has increased and has been higher than what is expected at this time of year for two weeks. (emphasis added) CDC link

Have you actually read any of the links you've posted? Did you understand them? I suggest you return and finish beyond your "eighth grade education" and if you have in fact gone beyond the "eighth grade," see if you can get your money back.


edit for major computer and internet burp.

[Name removed]

183. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Cerridwen]

185. I didn't respond to all *your* posts or I might have needed caff.

Not really. I can type fairly fast and debating someone of your, er, intelligence, requires very little effort on my part.

I keep citing CDC and WHO. You keep demanding CDC and WHO links. What's your beef?

[uppityperson]

209. again, thank you. I tire of it and very much appreciate your taking time and energy to post this

to counter the crap.

[northernlights]

148. I trust that "ignored" is projecting again

:shrug:

[uppityperson]

150. You mean those snide almost insults? Yeah. eom

[northernlights]

156. yup. since I put ignored on the big ignore, this thread got half as long

its IQ jumped 100% and its EQ jumped about 500% :rofl:

[uppityperson]

157. "with all due respect" indeed

[uppityperson]

208. I love

that phrase "with all due respect". Thank you for reminding me of it, will start using it more as appropriate.

[Cerridwen]

170. "misinformation spread by people" - such as you, for example?

You said: "Of COURSE this flu is seasonal just like any other flu."

The CDC (from your link, btw) says:

The proportion of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) was above the national baseline. All 10 regions reported ILI above region-specific baseline levels.

<snip>

*Influenza season officially begins each year at week 40. This season data from week 35 will be included to show the trend of influenza activity before the official start of the 2009-10 influenza season.

<snip>

During week 41, 6.9% of all deaths reported through the 122-Cities Mortality Reporting System were due to P&I. This percentage was above the epidemic threshold of 6.6% for week 41. Including week 41, P&I mortality has been above threshold for three consecutive weeks.

(emphasis added)

Also, from the CDC:

This flu season (2009-2010), there are more uncertainties than usual because of the emergence of a new 2009 H1N1 influenza virus (previously called "novel H1N1" or "swine flu") that has caused the first influenza pandemic (global outbreak of disease) in more than 40 years.

<snip>

Timing is uncertain. In past years, seasonal flu activity typically did not reach its peak in the U.S. until January or February, but flu activity has occurred as late as May. However, the 2009 H1N1 virus caused illness, hospitalizations, and deaths in the U.S. during the summer months when influenza is very uncommon. So it is not known when flu activity will increase, when it will be most intense (peak), what viruses will circulate, or how long the season might last.

(emphasis added)

"Seasonal?" Maybe. "like any other flu?" Not so much.

You said: "1. H1N1 has been around at least 3 other times since 1910."

The CDC says:

Three worldwide (pandemic) outbreaks of influenza occurred in the 20th century: in 1918, 1957, and 1968. The latter 2 were in the era of modern virology and most thoroughly characterized. All 3 have been informally identified by their presumed sites of origin as Spanish, Asian, and Hong Kong influenza, respectively. They are now known to represent 3 different antigenic subtypes of influenza A virus: H1N1, H2N2, and H3N2, respectively.

<snip>

Three worldwide (pandemic) influenza outbreaks occurred in the last century. Each differed from the others with respect to etiologic agents, epidemiology, and disease severity. They did not occur at regular intervals. In the case of the 2 that occurred within the era of modern virology (1957 and 1968), the hemagglutinin (HA) antigen of the causative viruses showed major changes from the corresponding antigens of immediately antecedent strains. The immediate antecedent to the virus of 1918 remains unknown, but that epidemic likely also reflected a major change in the antigens of the virus.

(emphasis added)

You said: "This version of it is actually killing less {sic} people than ordinary yearly flu."

I'm pretty sure you meant ~fewer~ people, but I'll leave your grammar as is.

I bet you can guess who said the following:

flu-related hospitalizations and deaths continue to go up nation-wide and are above what is expected for this time of year. (emphasis added)

Well, for now, you may be right that ~fewer~ people are dying - so far. As you can tell by reading the above, the flu season began sooner and there is some question as to when it will hit its peak and when it will end.

I hope you're right and that fewer people die (relative to population) than have died in previous pandemics.

One of the symptoms of the H1N1 is dizziness. I suggest you get off your high horse. You're 0 for 3 in just this one post.

[RobinA]

83. Well, I Live

in one of those areas, and if you read past the headlines you find that hospitals are overwhelmed because everybody is freaking. They are sending people home without treating them becaue THERE IS NO TREATMENT for the flu. Ya go home, ya drink plenty of fluids, maybe some Tylenol for a fever, and take it easy for a couple of days. Actual admissions are on the par with this time of year any other time.

[northernlights]

120. actually there are treatments called antivirals

Including tamiflu and relenza, which shorten the duration and intensity if taken early on. Also, elderberry extract has been clinically proven in double-blind lab and field studies, to shorten the duration and intensity. It's available over the counter in a product from France called Sambucol.

[pinto]

28. National Emergency Powers, CRS Report for Congress, August 2007

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/98-505.pdf

National Emergency Powers
Updated August 30, 2007

Harold C. Relyea
Specialist in American National Government
Government and Finance Division

There are, however, limits and restraints upon the President in his exercise of emergency powers. With the exception of the habeas corpus clause, the Constitution makes no allowance for the suspension of any of its provisions during a national emergency. Disputes over the constitutionality or legality of the exercise of emergency powers are judicially reviewable.

Indeed, both the judiciary and Congress, as co-equal branches, can restrain the executive regarding emergency powers. So can public opinion. Furthermore, since 1976, the President has been subject to certain procedural formalities in utilizing some statutorily delegated emergency authority.

The National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601-1651)eliminated or modified some statutory grants of emergency authority; required the President to declare formally the existence of a national emergency and to specify what statutory authority, activated by the declaration, would be used; and provided Congress a means to countermand the President’s declaration and the activated authority being sought. The development of this regulatory statute and subsequent declarations of national emergency are reviewed in this report, which is updated as events require.

much more at

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/98-505.pdf

[Riverez]

61. View of the President

http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/6216.pdf

"Emergency powers are not solely derived from legal sources. The extent of their
invocation and use is also contingent upon the personal conception which the
incumbent of the Presidential office has of the Presidency and the premises upon
which he interprets his legal powers. In the last analysis, the authority of a
President is largely determined by the President himself"

And here are a lot more details to what this COULD begin to look like. At least what has been explained.

http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/R40560_20090506.pdf

[customerserviceguy]

17. The President is smart enough to know

that if swine flu fizzles, he won't really suffer any negative political effects from it, whereas if it really does become a national emergency, it will be his Hurricane Katrina.

It's intelligent on several levels (political, social, etc.) to get the nation seriously focused on this disease. We've had the good fortune to be able to have a fairly long time to prepare for it (unlike a hurricane), but the other edge of that sword is that politicians are more likely to be held responsible by voters for consequences of failure.

Since I'm not in the targeted groups to receive the vaccine ahead of others, I'm counting on the nervous nellies to leave enough for me to get it as soon as possible. Once the first major outbreak story in a city makes the news, we will see lines for this vaccine that make the 1970's gasoline lines look like a joke.

Do remember that it was those gas lines back in 1979 that contributed to Jimmy Carter's being defeated by Reagan. I'm sure President Obama has learned from the lessons of history.

[Raschel]

23. Entire schools have closed, in Wisconsin they need teachers due to H1N1 and

there are long lines for the flu shot already.

[progressivebydesign]

40. everyone in my town is sick right now. I've stopped going out for dinner for a while..

.. because I can't count on the food workers to be healthy, or know they're sick. Sadly, people are still sending their sick kids to school. No wonder the teachers are getting sick. I think that many folks missed the CDC report that it's not just the absence of fever with this flu, that makes it not contagious. But they're finding that as long as you have a cough, you're still contagious.

I saw a teenaged girl at soccer practice the other day in the park, and she was coughing and you could see how sick she was.. but she was there trying to practice, around all the other girls.

[progressivebydesign]

41. I hate to be paranoid, but I have to wonder if Big Pharm is dragging their feet on purpose..

..nothing like creating a panic for this vaccine, and delivering it at a snails' pace to make this Obama's "waterloo" (a term lifted from the rnc memo trying to use the insurance issue to take him down.) I can't help but wonder... I mean, c'mon, Big Pharm, like the insurers do not want health care reform. How hard would it be for them to drag their feet to make him look bad and turn it into his "Katrina"? Talk me down...

[RobinA]

86. I Don't Think So

because if they wait much longer the spike could pass. I was sick last week, which has taken away any impetus I might have had the get the vacc. If everybody supposedly has it now and 99.9% are recovering nicely - I'm thinking this isn't the best advertisement for getting vaccinated.

[MissB]

20. This will allow states and their counties to receive funding

for their response to H1N1. Our state mobilized an emergency op center a month ago and so have many counties. This will relieve some local budgets.

[pinto]

21. Pre-emptive public health planning. A good move, in my opinion.

From the same article -

Health and Human Services chief Kathleen Sebelius now has authority to bypass federal rules when opening alternative care sites, such as offsite hospital centers at schools or community centers if hospitals seek permission.

Some hospitals have opened drive-thrus and drive-up tent clinics to screen and treat swine flu patients. The idea is to keep infectious people out of regular emergency rooms and away from other sick patients.

Hospitals could modify patient rules — for example, requiring them to give less information during a hectic time — to quicken access to treatment, with government approval, under the declaration.

It also addresses a financial question for hospitals — reimbursement for treating people at sites not typically approved. For instance, federal rules do not allow hospitals to put up treatment tents more than 200 yard away from the doors; if the tents are 300 yards or more away, typically federal dollars won't go to pay for treatment.

Administration officials said those rules might not make sense while fighting the swine flu, especially if the best piece of pavement is in the middle of a parking lot and some medical centers already are putting in place parts of their emergency plans.

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/10/24/national/w082337D27.DTL#ixzz0UskGOlUV

[progressivebydesign]

38. I agree.. it makes total sense to assist hospitals in getting people cared for and vaccinated. n/t

[progressivebydesign]

33. I've been on DU for 8 years and never been a tin hatter. BUT is Big Pharm screwing with Obama?

Suddenly, I got a bit paranoid. I mean.. gosh, nothing like a manufactured crisis to trash the President who is trying to reform health care. You know... his "Waterloo" as some memos suggested? Hard to even believe this could be the case, but it does seem that there is a potential for something like this.

[Igel]

59. You'd have to show that

"Big Pharma" is making the flu vaccine and did something intentionally to screw with its efficacy.

Novartis is responsible for a big chunk of it. But Sanofi Pasteur, CSL, and MedImmune are names new to me. (GlaxoSmithKline is a manufacturer, but holds just a small percentage. Assuming that the info Google provided is accurate.)

[Techn0Girl]

144. MedImmune is heaviliy connected to Goldman Sachs...

Google it up.

And we all trust Goldman Sachs now don't we?

I have to wonder what kind of PR campaign Goldman would use to make good on it's investment? Because it's not like they'd sacrifice the public good to make a profit now , right?

If you can't trust a company like Goldman Sachs with your Health and welfare, who can you trust?

[uppityperson]

151. I prefer to trust rude anonymous internet posters instead. Hugs.

[caseymoz]

58. My bet on the H1N1, cases and mortality.

I bet 80-100 million people are going to come down with it in the US.

Yes, most cases will be mild. But even so, I'd say 150-200 thousand people are going to die of it. Which is a death rate of .15 percent. I don't see it being better than this, but I do see where it could get worse-- like with a bad mutation.

No, I don't have any expertise. That's just what I foresee, and if I had any money, I'd actually bet on it.

[TheWatcher]

77. You'd lose.

[caseymoz]

81. Just watch.

We'll see what happens. I have the gamblers' delusion. I think I might win.

[superconnected]

87. There's only 300 million people in the US, you're guessing that nearly 1 out of 3 of us will get it.

That's a bit high don'tcha think? The regular flu usually isn't that bad even when the great epidemics were going on.

[caseymoz]

98. On August 31st, Obama said it could infect half the US--

http://www.infowars.com/obamas-council-of-advisors-on-science-and-technology-h1n1-may-hit-half-of-all-americans/

And his council of Science and Technology Advisers issued that report. Now, half would be 150 million. I think that's too high. The actual report says 80-120 million, and I don't know why the headlines say half.

But officials at both the WHO and the CDC have said that it has spread like no other pandemic they've ever seen. And that was repeated this month-- so it wasn't just early panic. That certainly does so far support a very high number of infections. If it infected half the US, and if the death-rate is just a little lower than the seasonal flu, then it might kill 500,000 people.

I do not think the death toll will be near that high, but I have it in mind as a worse case scenario.

The problem with this flu is not that it's deadly, it really is not that deadly, but it is just so damn more contagious.

I would hate to see what happens if its contagiousness combines with a human-adapted version of the Bird Flu. That would be like "I am Legend."

[Name removed]

135. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[caseymoz]

147. Yes, somewhat.

The Birthers do not do the same thing. When shown the Birth Certificate-- in the only form that Hawaii issues it, they'll say, we need to see the long form. Hawaii doesn't issue any other form. When this is pointed out to Birthers, it just strengthens their suspicions.

They'll also get suspicious when they see it says "Certificate of Birth" rather than "Birth Certificate."

They won't use Barrack Obama's real name, they'll call him Barry Lesetho in court documents. Very insulting for something that has yet to be adjudicated. They will call him by this name, showing conclusively that they have made up their minds the guy is fake (out of racism), or they think he is not really president (because he's the wrong race) and what they are doing is harassing.

As far as I could tell, the CDC has never been as unambiguous about H1N1 as Hawaiian officials have been about President Obama's birth certificate.

When all the absurd parts and features are brought together and shown to Birthers about how impossible it would have been to fake Obama's birth origin at the time in order to make him president now, the Birthers disregard it. That's a far different cry than anticipating mistakes and sloppiness by the CDC, or some degree of corruption within.

So, for the most part, I have to disagree with you. The comparison is pretty thin.

[rainbow4321]

67. You wouldn't know it by the lack of vaccines available

I work in an HIV clinic in the southwest and we STILL don't have the vaccines available. For the last 2 months we have been told to tell patients who ask for it "we'll have it the end of October". Ok..well now that it IS the end of October and we STILL don't have it, that line is getting less and less believable.
And we ran out of regular flu shots last week, we were told they would be available the end of November.

[boppers]

72. Compromised immune systems, and they can't get it?

:wow:

Not a good sign.

[rainbow4321]

85. It's gonna be a (potential) mess

We have about 3500 patients in our clinic...even if only half of them agree to get it (yes, we have **some** that say no to any and all flu shots) we will need over 1700 injections. That doesn't include our sister clinics (also HIV clinics) in the system--another 2,000 or so, I believe.
So far, it is not available for patients or staff.

[boppers]

93. What can I do?

Seriously. My partner is immune system compromised, and I find this to be kind of shocking... staff should be on the super-short list of recipients, with patients on the short list... and yet, I see people on TV getting shots...

[rainbow4321]

155. At this point, handwashing and avoid crowd are the only options

Someone dropped the ball big time with the vaccine distribution.

I've told you how many my clinic system ALONE needs...now we hear that the entire county has been given only 10,000 vaccines and those are going to a "massive" H1N1 flu shot drive at the county health department.
Um, I question their use of the word massive seeing as how there are 2.4 million county residents. Those 10,000 will be gone in a day, no doubt. Hopefully whoever is monitoring the line of people waiting weeds out those at highest risk (immune compromised, kids, elderly, etc..) and pulls them to the FRONT OF THE LINE.



About the first shipment gotten two weeks ago:

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/localnews/tv/stories/wfaa091023_wz_h1n1update.2467fec8f.html

DALLAS — The first large shipments of H1N1 flu vaccine have arrived in North Texas.

Dallas County Health and Human Services received 5,700 doses on Friday; Tarrant County Public Health reported receipt of more than 3,000 doses; and 1,000 doses arrived in Denton County.


The second shipment:
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/healthsciencetv/stories/wfaa091024_wz_swineflulocal.24c44f8b6.html

Dallas County is planning a massive vaccination clinic to immunize thousands of people at once. Details aren't yet final, but News 8 has learned it will likely be at a health department office during the first week of November.

But with 11 people dying from the virus in Dallas County alone, Thompson said more vaccine is urgently needed. "We don't need the 20,000 doses at the end of November — we need the 20,000 now," he said.

Dallas is expecting another 5,000 doses of the H1N1 vaccine any day now. It will likely be distributed at that massive immunization clinic now being planned.
---------------------------------


So for Dallas County with the over 2 million residents, we've gotten about 10,000 vaccine. None of which have trickled down to the county's own HIV clinic system yet.

[bamacrat]

70. What about the regular flu that kills way more than the swine flu has or realistically will. n/t

[boppers]

96. We should totally do nothing about the flu, it's culling the weak from the herd?

Is that what you're saying?

I'm not sure I understand your point. Are you arguing that H1N1 kills less.... before flu season hits the US, and we know what fatality rates are like?

[goforit]

74. I work in the hospital and haven't seen one case yet......only heard of a few.

[Divine Discontent]

95. my best friend's brother in the midwest just got confirmed and the ER was full of patients in for

same symptoms. I think it's spreading right now. Just my opinion, but I base that on that story, and that 3 died within confirmed H1N1 this week in my area. But, hopefully it's not as bad as this emergency declaration makes it seem.

[barb162]

102. It's spreading like wildfire around here. High schools closing,

elementary schools, I'm hearing about 30% of the kids are out of school, 2 young people dead, etc. And MDs on TV saying they think this is just the beginning.

[barb162]

101. Since 40 +plus states have widespread cases, I assume you're in a state

where that isn't the case.

[Bragi]

121. On the Internet...

no-one knows you're not a doctor.

- B

[Hansel]

130. Plenty of people I work themselves or someone in their family had it.

Several have been hospitalized. A good friend of mine son spent 5 days in the hospital with it. It's rampant at my work on its 2nd round. Round one was in June.

[Techn0Girl]

142. Be Careful....

Or you'll confuse the easily confuse with actual experience rather than fear.

Try quoting actual CDC stats at them. It's like showing Obama's birth certificate to a Birther.

[Cerridwen]

173. "The plural of anecdote is NOT data."

I wish I knew to whom I should attribute that quote.

One person's experience does NOT equal anything more than one person's experience.

[Cerridwen]

174. I *don't* work in a hospital and I have one friend who has died of it.

Neither of our experiences is data, however.

I'm going to hope like crazy that the CDC in this administration can be counted on to do the right thing this time around.

[Renew Deal]

76. Can we put republicans in forced injection FEMA camps now?

:shrug:

[Snazzy]

108. That job falls to the states it seems

according to the excellent legal run down in the linked pdf up-thread. Crossing borders another story possibly. Census workers are going to have a tough year.

(edit: this one: http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/R40560_20090506.pdf)

[steven johnson]

88. From NewZealand experience, 800 people in US will need ECMO to survive

Extraordinary ICU care was required during the swine flu epidemic in New Zealand and Australia where their winter flu season has just passed.

An analysis of the sickest swine flu patients in Australia, Canada, Mexico, and New Zealand suggests that relatively healthy adolescents and young adults are among the most likely to get very sick after an H1N1 infection, a pattern similar to that seen in the 1918 influenza pandemic. The difference here from the normal seasonal flu is that it doesn't cause acute respiratory failure in younger people. The analysis of cases in Australia and New Zealand showed that the mortality in young people was high even if they went on ECMO (extrecorporeal membrane oxygenation, artificial lung) and the Canadian experience suggested a higher mortality without it.

Severe ARDS is a bitch and then you die.

H1N1 Fighting Swine Flu
Young people are at risk for H1N1 complications>

The ECMO in the US has already started.

Pair of critically ill swine flu patients sent to Portland for treatment

A collection of new studies is demonstrating once again the ability of the pandemic H1N1 virus to make some people desperately sick and is raising questions about the potential strain on critical-care resources this fall and winter.

...68 patients with confirmed or suspected H1N1 in Australia and New Zealand were treated with the sophisticated heart-lung bypass technology called extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) during the countries' recent winter flu season.

The report says the 68 patients represent an ECMO treatment rate of 2.6 per million people, and the ECMO capacity was never exceeded. Given a similar incidence of ECMO use for H1N1 patients, "rough estimates are that the United States and European Union might expect to provide ECMO to approximately 800 and 1,300 patients" this winter, the authors state.


Critical care capacity in the Winnipeg area was "seriously challenged" at the peak of the outbreak in June, with all regional ICU beds filled, much as in the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) epidemic in Toronto in 2003, the report says.

Studies point up pandemic demand on critical care resources

[barb162]

103. The WHO web site also notes this severe lung damage aspect

of the H1N1. It's really frightening.

[steven johnson]

97. Worst Case: Choosing Who Survives in a Flu Epidemic

If the 1918 scenario recurs, we don't have enough ICU ventilators to take care of everyone. Who lives? Who dies? When the polio epidemic first caused respiratory paralysis in the 1950s, physicians hand bagged paralyzed patients in shifts.

In recent years, officials in a host of states and localities, as well as the federal Veterans Health Administration, have been quietly addressing one of medicine's most troubling questions: Who should get a chance to survive when the number of severely ill people far exceeds the resources needed to treat them all?

The draft plans vary. In some states, patients with Do Not Resuscitate orders, the elderly, those requiring dialysis, or those with severe neurological impairment would be refused ventilators, or admission to hospitals. Utah divides epidemics into phases (pdf). Initially, hospitals would apply triage rules to residents of mental institutions, nursing homes, prisons and facilities for the "handicapped." If an epidemic worsened, the rules would apply to the general population.

Federal officials say the possibility that America's already crowded intensive care units would be overwhelmed in the coming weeks by flu patients is small but they remain vigilant.

Mary Buckley-Davis, a respiratory therapist with 30 years experience, wrote to officials in 2007 that "there will be rioting in the streets" if hospitals begin disconnecting ventilators. "There won't be enough public relations spin or appropriate media coverage in the world" to calm the family of a patient "terminally weaned" from a ventilator, she said.

Worst Case: Choosing Who Survives in a Flu Epidemic

[Techn0Girl]

136. The worst case..

"If the 1918 scenario recurs, we don't have enough ICU ventilators to take care of everyone. "

No, the worst case is that a secret military medical experiment gets loosed upon us this Halloween and it's the Zombie Apocalypse for sure!

Which makes about as much sense as what you're implying. Comparing it to the 1918 outbreak is nonsense because it has broken out at least TWICE since then (without apocalyptic events by the way) and a good chunk of the population is already immune to it. This is why older people (like me - finally oldness is an advantage for something!) are at least partially immune to it.

Swing flu has a low death rate, lower than most influenza virus according to CDC statistics. It does spread rapidly. SO a lot of us are going to be sick with a flu for a week - and some people are going to pass away as they always unfortunately pass away from the flu. Since many older people are to some degree immune to this (having had it during the 70's or 40's outbreaks) they are probably at lessenned risk for dying. This may account for the lower death rates from H!N1 virus that we are experiencing - pur conjecture on my part however.

Hardly the Zombie apocalypse.

[gkhouston]

198. Running short on ventilators is not a far-fetched possibility.

I was reading the ProMED mailing list a week or two ago, and some of the Canadian hospitals were feeling pretty stretched as far as ventilator capacity goes. Can't remember if it was Manitoba or Alberta.

[joeycola]

112. Swine Flu Is Widespread in 46 States as Vaccines Lag

Source: nytimes





October 25, 2009
Swine Flu Is Widespread in 46 States as Vaccines Lag

By JACKIE CALMES and DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.

WASHINGTON — President Obama has declared the swine flu outbreak a national emergency, allowing hospitals and local governments to speedily set up alternate sites for treatment and triage procedures if needed to handle any surge of patients, the White House said on Saturday.

The declaration came as thousands of people lined up in cities across the country to receive vaccinations, and as federal officials acknowledged that their ambitious vaccination program has gotten off to a slow start. Only 16 million doses of the vaccine were available now, and about 30 million were expected by the end of the month. Some states have requested 10 times the amount they have been allotted.

Flu activity — virtually all of it the swine flu — is now widespread in 46 states, a level that federal officials say equals the peak of a typical winter flu season. Millions of people in the United States have had swine flu, known as H1N1, either in the first wave in the spring or the current wave.

Although there has been no exact count, officials said the H1N1 virus has killed more than 1,000 Americans and hospitalized over 20,000. The emergency declaration, which Mr. Obama signed Friday night, has to do only with hospital treatment, not with the vaccine. Government officials emphasized that Mr. Obama’s declaration was largely an administrative move that did not signify any unanticipated worsening of the outbreak of the H1N1 flu nationwide. Nor, they said, did it have anything to do with the reports of vaccine shortages.

“This is not a response to any new developments,” said Reid Cherlin, a White House spokesman. “It’s an important tool in our kit going forward.”

Mr. Obama’s declaration was necessary to empower Kathleen Sebelius, the secretary of Health and Human Services, to issue waivers that allow hospitals in danger of being overwhelmed with swine flu patients to execute disaster operation plans that include transferring patients off-site to satellite facilities or other hospitals. ......................

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/25/us/politics/25flu.html?_r=1&hp

[vadawg]

113. im glad i got my vaccine and my family got it too, this could end up being bad

especially when they run short on respirators, i can see them having to triage people and maybe take some terminal patients off the vents. Not sure how people will handle that..

[Ian David]

114. We've had our seasonal flu vaccines, and my daughter got her first dose of swine flu vaccine. n/t

[vadawg]

115. we have already seen cases in the inmates, isolation will only work so long

just hope it dosent get to the worst case scenario.

[Ian David]

116. baby, can you dig your man n/t

[Windy]

117. Our office manager was diagnosed with it and came to work anyway!

I'm home with something, probably not swine flu as no high fever, but it started in my head and moved to chest. I can't believe that idiot came in and infected everyone else! the woman he sits next to just finished chemo for breast cancer so she would be highly susceptible. Unreal

[vadawg]

118. he probuably took some extra vitamins and knows that it will protect people around him

people in general are dumb when it comes to stuff like this, they believe that since they have never had the flu then they must be immune or it must be the fact they wash their face in the morning dew so they dont need the vaccines etc or to be careful incase they spread shit...

[Techn0Girl]

137. I wonder if...

People could be sued somehow for coming in and infecting others with things like that. It seems the only way to knock sense into some idiots like your office manager.

If your office manager was diagnosed with H1N1 and came in while she was symptomatic...and you got sick within 5-10 days later .... well it's a good chance you have H1N1 as well. Don't stress. It's just a flu. Stay home and do all the things you already know about to do when you have a cold.

[lefty369]

204. shocking to hear the number of kooky conspiracy

nuts out there that think the government is out to poison them and will not take the vaccine. These people put all at risk. Obama should make vacination manditory...for the greater good of society.