STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday October 23

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday October 23, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s):Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted = 6

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 22, 2009

Dow... 10,081.31 +131.95 (+1.33%)
Nasdaq... 2,165.29 +14.56 (+0.68%)
S&P 500... 1,092.91 +11.51 (+1.06%)
Gold future... 1,059 -5.90 (-0.55%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.42 +0.03 (+0.94%)
30-Year Bond 4.24 +0.03 (+0.76%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Key Former Leaders Suffer Hangover After Dow 10,000 Party
BY MARTIN GOLDBERG

The US market enjoyed the euphoria of seeing the Dow surpass the 10,000 benchmark concurrently to a media blitz amongst major money management companies to once again draw in the public further into what on the surface appears to be a new bull market. The timing is right because those that were shaken out of the market are probably feeling lonely about not having their portfolio’s fully engaged in the big rally. In the meantime, the professional ranks would seem to be totally bought into the rally and so now with all their money in the market, all they can do now is talk and cheer.

However, it is likely relevant that all is not well with the market’s action. In fact there is significant evidence within at least two leading sectors of the market – financials and consumer discretionary - to suggest that the market may be beginning to roll over from bull to bear. For example, over the last 6 trading days (October 14th through 21st) the S&P Financials are down 4.2%. Similarly, the S&P consumer discretionary sector is down 2.2%. Some key “downs” are summarized in the table below:

.....

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[thelayoff]

6. Pumpathon Central at CNBC

Try to hear about the upcoming slump on the Pumpathon Central at CNBC...

The market is about to roll belly up, and the good ole cnbc is still pumpin', pumpin'... I wander what Dick Bove would have to say on this one. No, no, you'll never hear that the fundamentals indicate that both the consumer (declining wages, layoffs, unemployment) and the Financial Sector (bad debt) are on their knees...

Cheers,

IK

[ozymandius]

8. Welcome.

Thanks for the post. And welcome to DU and the Stock Market Watch.

[Dr.Phool]

9. Maybe squattin' in the tall cotton?

Ilargi: Wells Fargo announced record profits yesterday, and still lost 5% of their share value at the end of the day. The most ridiculous analyst out there, Dick Bove (or is that Bové?), was on CNBC early in the morning singing the bank's praises, only to downgrade it to a sell advice a few hours later. If that last Bove Move was what drove the stock down, investors deserve all the losses that are coming to them. "“It’s definitely had an effect on the market,” said Tim Smalls, head of U.S. trading at Execution LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut. Bove “has a very good following and very long track record of consistency <..> “ " Oh, Bove's consistent alright, that part is true. He's consistently wrong when it counts.

My first thought when I saw that Wells Fargo had announced record profits was: "How is that legal?" You see, I had been reading Reggie Middleton's If a Bubble Bubble Bursts Off Balance Sheet, Will Anyone Be There to Hear It? Part 4 - Wells Fargo on Monday.

Wells is one of 32 banks on Middleton's May 2008 Doo-Doo 32 list, alongside for instance Citi, JPMorgan Chase, BofA among others. And in his Monday post, Middleton explained in great detail why Wells Fargo is on that list, which he very diplomatically slash euphemistically calls "a list of institutions quite likely to hit the fan from an investor's perspective."

Middleton goes through a few categories where he finds Wells Fargo wanting:

* The risks posed by the housing crisis and arcane financing vehicles are drastically under-appreciated by the sell side...
* Write downs on investment securities along with other assets like MSR (Mortgage servicing rights) and mortgages held for sale will further erode the shareholder's wealth.
* Risk emanating from the massive derivative exposure.


By the time you're done with his analysis, let's just say Wells would not be a priority on your investment list, other than to short them into the curlies.

However. Wait a minute. There is a caveat the size of Alaska here. Because if a bank that is as deep in doo-doo as Wells is according to Middleton, can still report record profits, you might want to look, and very carefully, at the system that allows it to do so. People do business with Wells Fargo. They buy shares, they sign for mortgages and other loans, they deposit their savings. All these actions are based to a large extent on trust. And when a bank can paint rosy pictures toward the outside world while hiding who knows in toxicity, writedowns and losses, and get away with it, there is something very wrong with regards to the trust issue. The word fraud comes to mind.

(snip)

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

[Po_d Mainiac]

21. That CRE gorilla just won't get back in the cage...n/t

[Demeter]

24. CRE Meaning Creative Real Estate?

[Po_d Mainiac]

34. or Crap Real Estate

[Demeter]

22. Until Fraud Is Prosecuted as a Crime in This Country

instead of rewarded as a business innovation, it will continue.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Report

10:00 Existing Home Sales Sep
Briefing.com 5.45M
Consensus 5.35M
Prior 5.10M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

46. U.S. Sept. existing-home sales up 9.4% to 5.57 mln

10:00a U.S. median home prices down 8.5% in past year

10:00a U.S. Sept. home inventories fall 7.5% to 3.63 mln

10:00a U.S. home sales higher than 5.38 mln pace expected

10:00a U.S. Sept. existing-home sales up 9.4% to 5.57 mln

**********

are they putting foreclosures on the courthouse steps into this number?

:wtf:

[CatholicEdHead]

50. People are trying to get the paperwork filed for the $8500 tax rebate

which has to be in by the end of November. Sales are being lifted by the tax rebate in a Cash For Clunkers effect. When the $8500 government rebate goes down expect home sales to go back to previous levels, or even lower for the holiday season for a few months, then previous levels.

[Demeter]

54. Most Likely

As long as it changes hands and money is involved, it counts as a sale....

[ozymandius]

3. Oil holds above $81 as global economy recovers

SINGAPORE – Oil prices held above $81 a barrel Friday in Asia, just below a one-year high, as signs the global economic recovery is gathering pace fueled investor optimism.

Benchmark crude for December delivery fell 2 cents to $81.17 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 18 cents to settle at $81.19 on Thursday.

.....
In other Nymex trading, heating oil was steady at $2.09 a gallon. Gasoline for November delivery held at $2.05 a gallon. Natural gas for November delivery jumped 6.0 cents to $5.01 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[fasttense]

33. I'm so glad to hear we have recovered.

With a 17.8% unemployment rate here in East TN (and that's what our state admits to - the same state whose Democratic Governor wanted to turn down money for the unemployed, and whose Senator Porker/Corker rigged the Ohio election for the bushes.), with food prices, gas prices, health care, and tuition going up, while housing prices drop and foreclosures and bankruptcy rates at historical highs, no telling how bad things would have been if we hadn't recovered.
:sarcasm:

[ozymandius]

4. Volcker: Recovery won't be quick fix for job rates

HARRODSBURG, Ky. – Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker warned Thursday that the country faces a "considerable slog" in recovering from a deep recession, and that any economic gains will be too mild for a while to make a big dent in stubbornly high unemployment rates.

Speaking to a group of Kentucky corporate and government leaders, Volcker said more manufacturing and exports are among the needed prescriptions, not additional consumer spending, to heal the steepest economic downturn since the Great Depression.

"It took years to get into the situation we're in; it's going to take some years to get out of it," Volcker said at an afternoon-long economic roundtable in central Kentucky.
.....

Volcker, now a White House economic adviser, also said the Obama administration's proposed overhaul of financial rules could turn into a tougher fight in Congress than the struggle to revamp the nation's health care system.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091022/ap_on_bi_ge/us_volcker_economy

[fasttense]

35. How come it only took months for our uber wealthy overlords

to recover their Wall Street wealth but it will take years for us to recover our jobs?

"It took years to get into the situation we're in; it's going to take some years to get out of it,"

Banks/Wall Street/Insurance corporations have recovered from trillion dollar losses in a matter of months while our jobs will not come back for years. Something is seriously wrong with this society that does every thing possible, leaves no stone unturned, to put the uber wealthy back on their feet. Yet, does practically noting to help the remaining 99% of society.

A society is NOT judged on how well they keep their kings, but on how they treat the weakest among them.

[Demeter]

55. Well, It's Not Like the Govt. Is Going to Actually HIRE People

They shovel money out to people who will give them that money back for electioneering cost.

And did you hear? The Army made its quota, so you can't even get a job as cannon fodder now.

[Tansy_Gold]

41. "manufacturing amd exports"???? What a brilliant idea!

Who woulda thunk it? I'm sure no one on earth has ever thought of this new, creative, utterly unique idea ever before!



Well, except, maybe, once in a while, but not very often,







Tansy Gold (among MANY OTHERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

[Dr.Phool]

5. Shitibank doing what they do best. Swindling customers.

Here's what it says:

To continue to provide our customers with access to credit, we have had to adjust our pricing.

....

These changes include an increase in the variable APR for purchases to 29.99% and will take effect November 30, 2009.

(It then goes on to say that if you pay on time you can get 10% of your interest charges back, which lowers the effective rate by about 3%.)

I have multiple copies of this letter, all on the same theme - 30% interest rates, vastly higher than they were.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

[ozymandius]

7. They make robbery look so easy.

If given a choice - I would rather take my chances with a highwayman. At least they're honest about their intentions.

[DemReadingDU]

23. Citigroup closes gas-linked MasterCards without warning

another hit from Citigroup

10/19/09 Citigroup shuts down many MasterCards without warning consumers; letters sent 5 days later

The bank said in a statement it "decided to close a limited number of oil partner co-branded MasterCard accounts." That includes not only Shell, but Citgo, ExxonMobil and Phillips 66-Conoco cards. The close date was Wednesday, and letters were sent out Monday to customers informing them of the change, a Citi spokesman said. The bank would not say how many cards were shut down or how much available credit they represented.
rest of article...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Citi-closes-gaslinked-apf-1579141505.html?x=0

[DemReadingDU]

25. Some banks to charge fee if credit card paid off every month

10/19/09 USA Today: Latest bank fee is for paying off credit card on time every month

Starting next year, Bank of America will charge a small number of customers an annual fee, ranging from $29 to $99. The bank has characterized the fee as experimental. But card holders who have never carried a balance or paid late fees could be among those affected.
Citigroup, meanwhile, has started charging annual fees to card holders who don't put more than a specific amount on their cards, typically $2,400 a year. Other banks are charging inactivity fees if customers don't use their credit cards during a specific period of time. You heard that right: You could be spanked for staying out of debt.
rest of article...

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/columnist/block/2009-10-19-bank-of-america-card-fee_N.htm

[54anickel]

57. Oh for cryin' out loud! WTF is this shit? Looks like the game is completely rigged for you to

loose... Thank Bob I'm not some wacked out fundie, cause that credit score sure is sounding alot like the mark of the beast! I remember my dad couldn't get a stinking Kohl's credit card because he had no active score - paid cash for everything except his house and a couple of cars. The last car loan he had was for a new '78 station wagon for my mom. He wanted the damn card to get an extra 20% off his sweatsuit purchase. :eyes:

snip>

Leave. If your card issuer won't waive the fee, you'll have a choice: Pay the annoying fee or close your account. Unfortunately, this decision isn't as clear-cut as it sounds, because closing an account could hurt your credit score.

One of the factors used to calculate your credit score is what's known as the "credit utilization ratio," which is based on the amount of credit you have outstanding as a percentage of your total available credit. When you close a credit card account, the amount of your total available credit shrinks, which could lead to a higher utilization rate. This ratio accounts for 30% of your credit score.

In addition, closing an account you've owned a long time could affect your credit history, another factor used to calculate your score, Fichera says.

Still, if you aren't carrying balances on your other accounts and the card is relatively new, closing your account is worth considering. Even now, there are good deals out there, particularly for card holders with good credit, Arnold says. For example, the Fidelity Rewards American Express card pays 2% of cash back to a Fidelity account, with no limits on cash rewards and no annual fee.

[Demeter]

60. Hey Stranger! Glad You Dropped In!

It's been awfully quiet in your absence.

[54anickel]

62. Hi Demeter and all....

I've been pretty busy, or at least attempting to accomplish some things in my life. That means limiting my online time. The DU is addicting ya know.

It is amazing to see so much of what's been discussed in this thread (and others) over the years finally beginning to see the light of day. Hopefully, we'll be seeing some real progress in wrestling this country free from the clutches of the corporations and their lobbyists. I want more than just the bones and crumbs the centrists toss out this time around.

[Demeter]

26. Highwaymen Don't Bill You Monthly, Either

In fact, they have to work for their money

[mbperrin]

52. Yes, and you're face to face with a person, instead of getting stabbed

through the mail....

[willing dwarf]

31. Look out for your knee caps

They're heading for loan shark territory.

[DemReadingDU]

37. Citibank examples

Be sure to read those notifications that are coming with your credit card. Interest rates are increasing for most credit cards. I received a similar notice from HSBC (GM Card).

10/12/09 This example is from Citibank
To continue to provide our customers with access to credit, we have had to adjust our pricing. The terms of your account will be changing. These changes include an increase in the variable APR for purchases to 29.99% and will take effect November 30, 2009. As always, you have the right to opt out and pay down your balance under your current terms. lf you opt out, you may use your account under the current terms until the end of your current membership year or the expiration date on your card, whichever is later. At that time, we will close your account
more info
http://www.smartbalancetransfers.com/Citbank-rate-increase1.PDF

more info
http://www.smartbalancetransfers.com/citibank-rate-increase2.PDF

[ozymandius]

10. Top execs at rescued auto firms to get 25% pay cut

WASHINGTON -- The government whacked the compensation of top executives at General Motors Co., Chrysler LLC and their financial arms Thursday.
.....

Chrysler's top execs will lose nearly a fourth of their total compensation. One departing official -- believed to be Deputy Chief Executive Officer Jim Press -- will see his $2.6-million annual salary stopped now, because it exceeds what Feinberg believed was in the public interest.

At GM, a proposal to push cash salaries as high as $1.8 million was rejected. Top company executives face an overall pay cut of just under 25%. One official -- CEO Fritz Henderson, stands to make more than before.

That's an increase over his 2008 total salary of $1.7 million, but less than the $7.2-million compensation package he had in 2007.

http://www.freep.com/article/20091023/BUSINESS01/910230361/1331/Top-auto-execs-to-get-25--pay-cut

[Dr.Phool]

11. The Fudd. RIP.

I hope he finds 72 virgin poodles in paradise.

:cry:

[ozymandius]

13. Oh. I am so very sorry.

I wish him an inexhaustible population of easy-to-catch squirrels.

[Dr.Phool]

16. It's been a rough week.

I killed the computer on Sat., went crazy trying to fix it. I managed to fix it through the tears yesterday, then killed it again.

Finally vodka and a new power supply came to the rescue.

[DemReadingDU]

39. I am so sorry

It's really sad to lose a family pet, and a computer too. I can't imagine losing both in the same week. You have my sympathy.

[Karenina]

14. I'm so sorry Dr.Phool.

:hug:

[Demeter]

27. Oh,Doc, I am So Sorry to Hear That

May you remember only the good, and love again.

[bread_and_roses]

32. I am really so sorry

It never gets easier - gets harder, maybe, as we get older. take care of yourself.

[UpInArms]

38. oh no!

I am so very sorry, Doc -

:cry:

:grouphug:

[Hugin]

44. I'm so sorry to hear about this, Dr. Phool.

:(

[amandabeech]

45. I'm very sorry.

He'll be waiting for you.

[MsLeopard]

47. Very sorry to hear about Fudd

I've read your posts about him for years, I almost feel like I knew him. So sorry for your loss.

[Ghost Dog]

49. Sorry to hear that Doc.

[TheWatcher]

58. My Dear, Dear Doctor.

My deepest condolences to you. :hug:

Having lost a friend earlier this year, I know this is hard.

Safe Journey to him.

[54anickel]

59. So very sorry to hear of you loss Doc. Peace to your heart in this difficult

time...

[ozymandius]

12. New Jersey Pays Goldman Sachs for Swaps on Nonexistent Bonds (WTF?)

Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- New Jersey taxpayers are sending almost $1 million a month to a partnership run by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. for protection against rising interest costs on bonds that the state redeemed more than a year ago.

The most-densely populated U.S. state is making the payments under an agreement made during the administration of former Governor James E. McGreevey in 2003, when New Jersey’s Transportation Trust Fund Authority sold $345 million in auction-rate bonds whose yields fluctuated with short-term interest costs. The agency finances road and rail projects.

“This vividly shows the risk of entering into interest- rate swap agreements,” said Christopher Taylor, former executive director of the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board in Alexandria, Virginia. “The world’s got to see what stupidity even the sophisticated investors like the transportation fund can get into.”

.....

The state paid $940,000 under the agreement last month and a total of $11.4 million since the auction-rate bonds were redeemed. The expenditures come as the fund reaches its borrowing limit and Governor Jon Corzine, Goldman’s former chairman who was a U.S. senator when the contract was signed, seeks $400 million in budget reductions as tax receipts fall.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aufmSRtDn0gg

[Dr.Phool]

15. WTF is right.

How much longer til we start awarding those FRSP Bonuses?

[Tansy_Gold]

48. not soon enough. . . . . . . .. n/t

[ozymandius]

17. Fed Treasury Purchases: Just $2 Billion More

From the Atlanta Fed:

• The Fed has purchased a total of $297 billion of Treasury securities through October 21, bringing it about 99% toward its goal. Of these purchases, $4.5 billion have been TIPS.

• Last week, the Fed made a purchase on October 13 for $2.95 billion in the seven-to-10-year sector.

The NY Fed purchased $1.05 billion more yesterday, so there is just $2 billion more to come over the next week.

There's more at Calculated Risk.

[Demeter]

28. TIPS? To Insure Prompt Service?

[ozymandius]

18. Work calls early today.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

So I must be on my way. Have a nice day, folks.

:hi:

[Dr.Phool]

19. Have a good one!

[Demeter]

30. Fabulous Cartoon, Ozy

Especially that comment about losing weight to fit under that handkerchief-sized tent.

[Festivito]

20. Debt: 10/21/2009 11,948,456,481,573.98 (DOWN 8,128,267,034.60) (Wed)

(Not much to say. Have a fun day.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,530,693,518,040.49 + 4,417,762,963,533.49
UP 260,615,642.06 + DOWN 8,388,882,676.66

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.75, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,769,181 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 09/27/2009 07:13 -> 307,558,299
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,822.78.
A family of three owes $116,468.35. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 6,244,092,458.45.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,579,001,136.20.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 15 reports in 21 days of FY2010 averaging 2.58B$ per report, 1.84B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,187 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 18.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
10/21/2009 11,948,456,481,573.98 BHO (UP 1,321,579,432,660.90 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 452% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 963% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,038,627,478,062.20 ------------BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/30/2009 +091,724,705,747.96 ------------**********
10/01/2009 -045,967,461,558.95 -
10/02/2009 +000,166,120,250.33 ------------********
10/05/2009 -000,035,707,866.46 ---- Mon
10/06/2009 +000,640,950,413.48 ------------********
10/07/2009 +000,015,260,219.44 ------------*******
10/08/2009 -027,497,592,311.52 -
10/09/2009 -000,014,303,257.45 ----
10/13/2009 +010,339,703,734.17 ------------********** Tue
10/14/2009 +000,250,135,805.15 ------------********
10/15/2009 +040,455,301,335.22 ------------**********
10/16/2009 -000,034,671,440.79 ----
10/19/2009 +000,169,101,777.19 ------------******** Mon
10/20/2009 +000,084,506,561.85 ------------*******
10/21/2009 +000,260,615,642.06 ------------********

70,556,665,051.68 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4114318&mesg_id=4114383

[Festivito]

61. Debt: 10/22/2009 11,896,808,244,570.28 (DOWN 51,648,237,003.70) (Thu)(SURPLUS!)

(A big drop today and we are back to an Obama surplus, I kid you not. If any of those Sunday geezers complain about the debt and the deficit, shove this up their noses. And have a great weekend for all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,475,811,772,019.34 + 4,420,996,472,550.94
DOWN 54,881,746,021.15 + UP 3,233,509,017.45

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.75, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,777,821 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 09/27/2009 07:13 -> 307,558,299
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,653.88.
A family of three owes $115,961.65. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 3,508,139,353.09.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,572,635,525.60.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 16 reports in 22 days of FY2010 averaging -0.81B$ per report, -0.59B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,186 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 11.2 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
10/22/2009 11,896,808,244,570.28 BHO (UP 1,269,931,195,657.20 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 452% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 963% of FY-Debt
FY2010 -0,013,020,758,941.50 ----------BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/01/2009 -045,967,461,558.95 -
10/02/2009 +000,166,120,250.33 ------------********
10/05/2009 -000,035,707,866.46 ---- Mon
10/06/2009 +000,640,950,413.48 ------------********
10/07/2009 +000,015,260,219.44 ------------*******
10/08/2009 -027,497,592,311.52 -
10/09/2009 -000,014,303,257.45 ----
10/13/2009 +010,339,703,734.17 ------------********** Tue
10/14/2009 +000,250,135,805.15 ------------********
10/15/2009 +040,455,301,335.22 ------------**********
10/16/2009 -000,034,671,440.79 ----
10/19/2009 +000,169,101,777.19 ------------******** Mon
10/20/2009 +000,084,506,561.85 ------------*******
10/21/2009 +000,260,615,642.06 ------------********
10/22/2009 -054,881,746,021.15 -

-76,049,786,717.43 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4115881&mesg_id=4115920

[Demeter]

29. Stolen From Posteritatis: Rich Germans demand higher taxes

A group of rich Germans has launched a petition calling for the government to make wealthy people pay higher taxes.

The group say they have more money than they need, and the extra revenue could fund economic and social programmes to aid Germany's economic recovery.

Germany could raise 100bn euros if the richest people paid a 5% wealth tax for two years, they say.

The petition has 44 signatories so far, and will be presented to newly re-elected Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Read more: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8321967.stm

[fasttense]

36. Oh my, uber wealthy Germans care more about their country than about holding on to their money?

Nothing like our uber wealthy American CEOs and Republicon corporations. They would rather see America burn before they gave up one extra dime.

[UpInArms]

40. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 75.332 Change +0.238 (+0.31%)

British Pound Tumbles Lower as 3Q GDP Disappoints, Euro Hits Fresh Yearly High

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/us_open/2009-10-23-1024-British_Pound_Tumbles_Lower_as.html

The British pound fell back from the intraday high (1.6695) and tumbled to a low of 1.6412 as the economy failed to emerge from the recession in the third quarter, and the currency may face increased selling pressures going into the North American trading session as investors scale back long-term expectations for higher interest rates in the U.K. As a result, we may see the GBP/USD retrace the weekly advance and may fall back towards the 100-Day SMA at 1.6362 to test for short-term support.

The advanced 3Q GDP reading showed economic activity in the U.K. unexpectedly contracted 0.4% from the three-months through June and marked the longest slump since recordkeeping began in 1955, with service-based activity weakening 0.2% during the quarter, while industrial outputs and building activity slipped 0.7% and 1.1%, respectively. As the economy remains in recession, the Bank of England is likely to hold a dovish outlook throughout the remainder of the year and may take further steps to jump-start the economy, and speculation for further easing is likely to dragon the exchange as investors weigh the outlook for future policy. At the same time, the index of services weakened 0.1% during the three-months through August amid expectations for a 0.1%, and growth prospects are likely to remain subdued going into the following year as households continue to face a weakening labor market paired with tightening credit conditions.

The Euro advanced to a fresh yearly high of 1.5063 during the Asian session and remained bid throughout the European trade as the economic docket reinforced an improved outlook for the economy. Manufacturing activity in Euro-Zone expanded for the first time since May 2008, with the PMI increasing to 50.7 from 49.3 in September, while service-based activity grew at a faster pace in October as the index jumped to 52.3 from 50.9 in the previous month, which is the highest reading since February 2008. At the same time, business confidence in Germany rose to a 13 month high in October, with the headline reading rising to 91.9 from 91.3 in the previous month, while the IFO’s gauge for future expectations jumped to 96.8 from 95.7 to post the highest reading since May 2008. Moreover, industrial new orders in the euro-region increased 2.0% in August after rising 3.0% in the previous month, and the single-currency may continue to appreciate throughout the second-half of the year as the economic outlook improves.

U.S. dollar price action was mixed overnight following the slew of economic data from Europe, and the reserve currency may face increased volatility throughout the U.S. trade as Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak on financial regulation at the Boston Fed conference. At the same time, economists forecast existing home sales in the U.S. to increase 4.9% in September to reach an annualized pace of 5.35M, which would be the highest since August 2007, and the data is likely to reinforce an improved outlook for the world’s largest economy as policy makers see the nation emerging from the worst recession since the Great Depression.

...more...

Optimism Still Rising as The Fundamental / Speculative Gap Grows

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/carry_trade_basket/2009-10-23-0229-Optimism_Still_Rising_as_The.html

Emboldened by new highs and early signs of rising yields, risk appetite has pushed to a new high for the year. However, the progress made week-over-week was very limited. Once again, investors and traders have reached the point where caution and skepticism has stalled the steady appreciation that the markets have otherwise carried on with since February. Perhaps we have come to the next tipping point in speculative interests where stable fundamentals are needed to draw in the next wave of funds to feed the capital gains of those that have already taken the plunge. And if there were ever a single piece of event risk that could confirm or rebuff forecasts for a stable, bullish market and a revival of yields; it would be the quarterly growth data. Heading into this heavy round of economic data, we can see the hesitation in price action. For the currency market, the dollar may still be on its bearish path; but its pace of descent has clearly cooled. EURUSD is arguably the benchmark for the pace and direction of the top funding currency candidate; but AUDUSD is better for measuring market sentiment. Despite being spurred on by the RBA’s aggressively hawkish monetary policy stance, the pair has stalled this past week at 0.93. This is unusual considering the fundamental contrast seen between the US and Australian dollars. Even the more accessible and popular equities market is showing indecision. The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average has loosely been confined to a 10,100 to 9,900 range since last Wednesday. It seems, regardless of what direction sentiment eventually takes, we will soon find some resolution on direction.

In the past weeks and months, we have seen multiple instances of congestion after a leg of bullish price action; and inevitably, optimism picks up where it left off. The is the nature of any market. A trend will eventually grow exhausted; and that offers the opportunity for continuation or a reversal. The speculative rally that the markets have been able to run for most of the year is still running well beyond the reasonable limits of the fundamental backdrop; but a few developments may have actually furthered confidence and ensured the next round of sidelined capital finds its way into the speculative arena. The outlook for yield has taken a notable turn for the better over the past week. The RBA took another broad step into hawkish territory recently when Governor Glenn Stevens said that he would tolerate further appreciation in the Aussie dollar in his efforts to rein in monetary policy. And, though this was the most unabashedly hike-oriented language to come out of the central bank circles; we have seen a subtle shift amongst many authorities. The BoE is expected to announce its intentions to take a break from its quantitative easing efforts at its next rate decision in November and the Fed is testing reverse repos in the money markets as a way to remove liquidity from the market without collapsing bank balance sheets. The next fundamental milestone is the third quarter GDP numbers. China has already confirmed an impressive pace for the period; but the United Kingdom’s reading will be the first for an industrialized country. What’s more, since the UK is considered the underperformer of the G-20, it could define the lowball estimate for global growth. Next week, the stakes are raised with the activity report for the US.



...more...

[UpInArms]

42. Wal-Mart shrinks U.S. supercenters, sees tepid sales

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE59L4Z220091023?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&sp=true

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - The Wal-Mart supercenter is getting downsized.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc fueled its aggressive U.S. expansion this decade by opening supercenters that on average have more square footage than three American football fields. But at its analyst meeting on Thursday, Wal-Mart said it will rely on smaller, more efficient stores to drive future U.S. expansion and help it penetrate yet untapped urban markets.

While it shrinks the average size of its U.S. stores, its international operations are gaining in importance and will help fuel future sales. It forecast international square footage growth to outpace U.S. growth this fiscal year and next.

<snip>

Wal-Mart expects sales to grow 1 percent to 2 percent in the current fiscal year, below the 5 percent to 7 growth projection provided at last year's analyst meeting.

Chief Financial Officer Tom Schoewe attributed the shortfall to currency exchange rates and deflationary pressures. Last year, rising food and gas prices helped boost sales figures, but those forces have eased this year.

...more...

[CatholicEdHead]

51. Many WalMarts are going through remodels

They are going more upscale to compete with Best Buy and Target. Part of that means smaller, shorter shelves which hold less product. The floor square footage will remain the same but there will be less on the shelves all with a higher end look to the stores, black and wood grain are in and basic white is out.

[MARALE]

53. I have noticed that with our Walmart

I don't go there very often, but last time I was there noticed that it had more of a feel like Target. More tastefully displayed items and more room in the isles. They must be feeling some competition to remarket their stores.

[UpInArms]

43. Messier, Bronfman told to stand trial in Vivendi case

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE59L5W820091022?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

PARIS (Reuters) - Former Vivendi boss Jean-Marie Messier and the head of Warner Music Group Edgar Bronfman Jr have been told to stand trial on various charges of financial wrong doing, according to a court document obtained by Reuters.

The charges include divulging misleading information, stock price manipulation and misuse of corporate funds. The decision was made earlier this month by investigating magistrate Jean-Marie d'Huy.

The case dates back to Messier's spell at the helm of the French media group at the start of the decade. Under his tenure, Vivendi embarked on an acquisition spree but ended up racking up massive debts and started to report losses.

Messier now runs merger advisory firm Messier Partners.

Lawyers for both Messier and Bronfman Jr, who used to serve on Vivendi's board, said their clients denied the charges.

...more...

[Hugin]

56. Meanwhile, back in the U.S.A...

Those same corporations are successfully suing people who listen to music.

Really seems like they're working the wrong end of the chain in this neck of the woods... Doesn't it? :shrug: