STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday September 9

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday September 9, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 6

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 8, 2009

Dow... 9,497.34 +56.07 (+0.59%)
Nasdaq... 2,037.77 +18.99 (+0.94%)
S&P 500... 1,025.39 +8.99 (+0.88%)
Gold future... 1,000 +3.10 (+0.31%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.48 +0.04 (+1.19%)
30-Year Bond 4.32 +0.06 (+1.34%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:
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Handy Links - Government Issues:
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Handy Links - Videos:
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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Dollar Breakdown
Are you diversified?
BY FRANK BARBERA

It should not come as a huge surprise to investors to see the US Dollar break down. Over the last few months, the Bernanke Fed has been creating new dollars at a rate that would rival the Central Bank of Zimbabwe. While many in the Deflation camp point out that these Dollars are not being lent out, the increase in Dollar supply has been unprecedented, and to that end, I’m not surprised to see the greenback breaking down. For weeks, the Dollar has hovered just above support, acting poorly and unable to muster any type of concerted rally. In all of our recent writing, we have been harping on a bearish Dollar resolution for some time, and a move on the Euro above 145.00. Going back to our commentary on July 14th, we had come to the conclusion that a steady, organized decline in the US Dollar is probably the most likely outcome. Given the outcome of this weekend’s G-20 meeting which produced nothing in the way of tangible Dollar support, we see the greenback breaking down in violent fashion – now the unspoken sacrificial lamb of profligate Central Bank policies. We enunciated our strongly bearish Dollar stance in our market update dated July 14th, and then recently reiterated that view in our commentary of August 18th.

......

Within the currency market, today’s decline in the Dollar has taken place across a wide range of currency values, with natural resource currencies like the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar surging to new highs and the Canadian Dollar also moving strongly higher toward the high end of the range. This underscores the idea that the current move up in foreign currencies is broadly based. As an aside, and purely as a courtesy for those loyal readers, I am striving to make this week’s article a bit of a “one-stop shop” reference guide to non-Dollar alternative investments. Since there have been so many new vehicles created in recent years, I thought I would include a summary list of all foreign currency exchange trade funds: These may or may not be suitable for you as an investor, and as always, all readers are encouraged to do their own homework before making any kind of investment. That said, under the header of currency ETF’s, list is as follows: the Aussie Dollar (symbol: FXA), the Canadian Dollar (symbol FXC), and the New Zealand Dollar (symbol BNZ), the Euro (symbol: FXE), the Swiss Franc (symbol: FXF), the Mexican Peso (symbol: FXM) and British Pound (symbol: FXB), the Japanese Yen (symbol: FXY). In the case of the Euro ETF, FXE we show the chart below with arrow highlighting today’s upside breakout above the key 145.00 level. In my view, the odds are now increasing the Euro will continue to trend to the upside in the weeks ahead moving back up across the range toward the former highs in the 155 to 160 range.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

33. I Certainly Am Diversified

I have nothing in everything.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Report

14:00 Fed's Beige Book

definition of the Beige Book

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Ghost Dog]

41. Fed Beige Book Says Economy Stable or Improving in Most of U.S.

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve said 11 of its 12 regional banks reported signs of a stable or improving economy in July and August, adding anecdotal evidence that the worst U.S. recession in seven decades is over.

Five districts, including San Francisco, home to the biggest regional economy, “mentioned signs of improvement,” the Fed said today in its Beige Book business survey, published two weeks before officials meet to set monetary policy. The exception was the St. Louis district, which said the contraction’s pace “appeared to be moderating.”

The central bank survey indicates that while the worst of the downturn may be past, the economy has yet to show broader growth. The outlook among many business contacts was “cautiously positive,” and some auto-industry contacts told the Fed the sales increases from government “cash-for- clunkers” subsidies may be temporary.

“Consumer spending remained soft in most districts,” the Fed report said. “Loan demand was described as weak, and many districts reported that credit standards remained tight.”

/. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=afaBqaqCvkUo


Most of nation in economic healing mode, Federal Reserve survey shows
by Associated Press

WASHINGTON — A new government survey finds the vast majority of the country reporting economic activity is stabilizing or improving, as the worst recession since the 1930s appears to be over.

The Federal Reserve's snapshot of economic conditions backs predictions by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and most other analysts that the economy has started to grow again in the current quarter.

/.. http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2009/09/most_of_us_in_economic_healing.html


Economy stabilizing, Fed's Beige book says
Rebound led by factories, residential real-estate

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The economy appears to be stabilizing across much of the country, led by a pickup in factory activity and a long-awaited improvement in residential real estate, according to the Federal Reserve's latest update on activity released Wednesday.

"Most regions reported some improvement in residential real estate," the Fed said. This is the most optimistic report on housing since the housing bubble collapsed in the latter half of 2006.

But the Beige Book report also shows that consumers are still grappling with the aftermath of the collapse.

...

The Fed report said that consumer spending was flat. Retailers are not adding to inventories, instead keeping them in line with low sales levels.

Another tentative sign of a recovery came from reports of slight pickups in demand for temporary workers in many districts. Some economists believe that hiring part-time work is a precursor to a return in hiring.

But the most glowing reports, such as they were, came from the factory sector.

"The majority of reports indicated that manufacturers were cautiously optimistic," the report said. Several districts reported some gains in new orders.

The improved conditions in the Beige Book mirror expectations by economists. The latest Blue Chip survey of economists expects growth to recover to a 3.0% growth rate in the current July-September quarter. This follows four straight quarters of negative growth which have amounted to the sharpest recession since World War II.

...

Credit remains scarce, according to the report.

/... http://www.marketwatch.com/story/economy-stabilizing-led-by-factories-fed-2009-09-09

:shrug:

See Fed Beige Book Summary: http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2009/20090909/default.htm

[ozymandius]

3. Oil hovers near $71 amid weakening US dollar

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered near $71 a barrel Wednesday in Asia after a weakening U.S. dollar sent crude soaring overnight.

Benchmark crude for October delivery was down 7 cents at $71.03 a barrel by late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

On Tuesday, the contract gained $3.08 to settle at $71.10 as the dollar fell to a low for the year against the euro and gold prices surpassed $1,000 an ounce for the first time since February.

.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for October delivery was steady at $1.83 a gallon, and heating oil held at $1.79 a gallon. Natural gas rose 1.8 cents to $2.83 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Fed: consumers cut debt by record $21.6B in July

WASHINGTON – Consumers slashed their borrowing in July by the largest amount on record as job losses and uncertainty about the economic recovery prompted Americans to rein in their debt.

Economists expect consumers will continue to spend less, save more and trim debt to get household finances decimated by the recession into better shape. Such behavior, though, is a recipe for a lethargic revival, because consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of economic activity.

The Federal Reserve reported Tuesday that consumers in July ratcheted back their credit by a larger-than-anticipated $21.6 billion from June, the most on records dating to 1943. Economists had expected credit to drop by $4 billion.

.....

The latest cut still left total consumer credit at $2.47 trillion.

Wary consumers and hard-to-get credit both factor into the scaled-back borrowing. But economists are split on which force — lack of demand by consumers or lack of supply from banks — is having the bigger influence.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090908/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fed_consumer_credit

[Po_d Mainiac]

15. Are these same

economist/witch doctors looking at employment numbers when they make a claim like this
"Economists expect consumers will continue to spend less, save more and trim debt to get household finances decimated by the recession into better shape"
or is this insert done at the whim of the author?

:donut: Good Morning

[TheWatcher]

35. The writing is always so childlike and insulting.

In stories like this, in ANY news story really, related to finances or just about anything else. If you have a strong stomach, check out Yahoo Finance or the Yahoo Front Page sometime, and just read the crap posted there.

It reads like the Weekly Reader I used to get in the second grade.

They treat us like 8 year-old children, and expect us to just go along and submit to whatever crap they feed us.

I'm ready to throw it back in their faces and say "NO MORE! If that pile of dog shit on the carpet is actually a delicious bar of Godiva Chocolate like you say, then YOU EAT IT."

If we would ALL do that at once, maybe things would get written a few grade levels higher.

[AnneD]

29. You never miss the water...

til the well runs dry.

[Ghost Dog]

43. See Denninger's analysis of consumer credit here:

Has the Government's Effort Failed? 10 comments
by: Karl Denninger September 09, 2009
The Federal Reserve's latest (through July) G19 update is out, showing consumer credit.

To say that these figures are ugly would be an understatement. In fact, there is simply no way you can spin this - while this contraction in credit has to happen it has horrifying implications if our Washington policymakers don't get on the stick and deal with the underlying issues here and now instead of pretending that everything is ok or worse, try to "borrow our way to prosperity."

Let's start with the "Full Monte"; this is the "de-noised" version of The Fed's "annualized" rate of change chart (click for a larger version of any of these):

The important point is that we have never been here before in the post-Depression era. Any and all claims that "The Consumer has reached a bottom", or "The Recession is over" (based on July data) or any such is pure nonsense. There is not only no sign of a bottom there is no change in the second derivative - that is, the rate of change continues to be essentially straight down!

... snip, charts ...

The total consumer credit amount outstanding fell by an astonishing five times what economists were predicting. Here's the current outstanding graph:

There were significant revisions in this release, the most important of which appear to be that the credit peak was actually not in January of this year, but rather in July of 2008! The impact of this is very material in that we have been deflating our credit system on a consumer level for six months longer than The Fed was disclosing just last month.

Accident or something more? I have no idea.

Now let's add to the misery:

... big snip ...

The entire premise of the claim that "we have stabilized the banking and credit system" rested on the following three legs of the stool:

1.
Unemployment would reach only 8.9% this year and top 10.3% in 2010. We have already exceeded that.
2.
The economy would contract by 3.3% this year and remain flat in 2010. Not a snowball's chance in hell on a private activity basis; we're running pretty close to double that rate.
3.
Housing prices would fall another 22%. We might be ok there for the moment, but only because of foreclosure moratoriums, game-playing by the banks (refusing to actually foreclose and resell REO property) and similar tactics. This delays but does not change the outcome.

The problem is that nobody modeled in credit contraction like this on a consumer basis.

/Plenty more... http://seekingalpha.com/article/160639-has-the-government-s-effort-failed

[ozymandius]

5. Rate on 6-month Treasury bill hits new record low

WASHINGTON – Interest rates on six-month Treasury bills hit a record low for the second consecutive week.

The Treasury Department on Tuesday auctioned $29 billion in six-month bills at a discount rate of 0.225 percent. That was down from last week's record of 0.240 percent. The government started issuing these bills weekly in December 1958.

Another $29 billion in three-month bills were auctioned at a discount rate of 0.140 percent, down from 0.150 percent last week. That's the lowest point for three-month bills since 0.135 percent on April 27. The auction was delayed by a day because of the Labor Day holiday.

.....

The discount rates reflect that the bills sell for less than face value. For a $10,000 bill, the three-month price was $9,996.46, while a six-month bill sold for $9,988.63. That would equal an annualized rate of 0.142 percent for the three-month bills, and 0.228 percent for the six-month bills.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090908/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_treasury_bills

[ozymandius]

6. Taxpayers will lose on auto bailouts (Elizabeth Warren's committee)

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Much of the money given to General Motors and Chrysler to prevent them from collapsing will never be recovered, according to a report released Wednesday by the Congressional Oversight Panel.

"Although taxpayers may recover some portion of their investment in Chrysler and GM, it is unlikely they will recover the entire amount," the report says, citing estimates from the Treasury Department and Congressional Budget Office.

.....

All told, since late last year, the government has provided or pledged the two companies, icons of American manufacturing, more than $60 billion in aid.

Treasury estimates that about $23 billion of initial loans to the two companies "will be subject to 'much lower recoveries,' " the panel's report says. In particular, $5.4 billion of loans to Chrysler are "highly unlikely to be recovered," it continued.

.....

How much of the remaining funds will be recovered is impossible to predict, Warren said, because the loans have been converted to stock.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/09/autos/cop_auto_report/?postversion=2009090903

[ozymandius]

7. European, Asian Stocks Snap Four-Day Rally; U.S. Futures Fall

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- European and Asian stocks slid for the first time in five days and U.S. index futures fell as investors speculated a six-month rally has outpaced the prospects for earnings.

.....

Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index dropped 0.2 percent to 237.46 at 10:06 a.m. in London, retreating from an 11-month high. The regional gauge, which has surged 50 percent since March 9, is valued at 45.7 times profit, the highest level since 2003, Bloomberg data show.

.....

Shares extended their decline after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the financial crisis is not yet over and it’s important for policy makers to consider how they will withdraw economic stimulus measures.

.....

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8 percent from a one- year high as Alibaba.com Ltd. and Lenovo Group Ltd. retreated. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.3 percent, indicating the benchmark gauge for U.S. stocks may snap three days of gains.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHPYMYNUpTBs

[ozymandius]

8. Judges Punish Wall Street as Regulators Just Talk About Reform

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- As the White House and Congress debate how to regulate financial firms to avoid another economic crisis, judges have assumed the point position in punishing Wall Street for causing the worst recession since the 1930s.

The executive and legislative branches have been discussing reforms such as more regulation of hedge funds and transparency for derivatives as a response to the financial crisis that began a year ago. As that battle with a reluctant Wall Street inches forward about how to prevent another disaster, judges are taking the first steps toward the same goal, punishing executives and issuing rulings with national impact.

Last week, U.S. District Judge Shira Scheindlin threw out a key free-speech defense that credit raters had used for years to thwart investors’ fraud suits, knocking $1.5 billion off the market value of Moody’s Investors Service Inc. and the parent of Standard & Poor’s LLC.

.....

Judges aren’t targeted by lobbyists to influence their rulings the way the other branches of government are. They aren’t paid much either compared with the defendants who come before them. The Chief Justice of the United States makes $223,500 -- about the same as a junior lawyer at a large New York law firm -- and all other U.S. judges make less.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a5wZ95KdSuJQ

[ozymandius]

9. Missing Lehman Lesson of Shakeout Means Too Big Banks May Fail

I often marvel at the parade of hubris and stupidity that rules our world. - ozy

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The warning was ominous: “Massive global wealth destruction.”

That’s what Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. executives predicted before they filed the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history. “Impacts all financial institutions,” read one bullet point in a confidential memo prepared for government officials obtained by Bloomberg News. “Retail investors/retirees assets are devastated.”

The message didn’t get through. Two dozen of the world’s most powerful bankers, brought together by Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. and Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy F. Geithner the weekend of Sept. 13, 2008, to devise a rescue plan for Lehman, were too busy saving themselves to see the larger threat.

.....

For Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO Lloyd C. Blankfein, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon and the rest of the financial chieftains who spent a weekend trying to unwind derivatives trades and keep bank-to-bank loans flowing, ignoring the commercial-paper market, the lifeblood of the economy, proved a catastrophic oversight. Within a week, the U.S. stepped in to halt withdrawals from money market funds, leading to a $1.6 trillion industry backstop, part of $13.2 trillion it has committed to beating back the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

.....

Rather than break up institutions such as Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc., or limit their expansion, the U.S. has given them billions of dollars in tax incentives and loan guarantees that enabled them to grow even bigger. To protect against a bank collapse touching off another freefall, President Barack Obama has proposed regulatory changes that rely on the wisdom of bankers and government overseers -- the same people who created the conditions that led to Lehman’s bankruptcy and were unable to foresee its consequences.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aX8D5utKFuGA

[ozymandius]

10. Vanity Fair: Good Billions After Bad

As the Bush administration waned, the Treasury shoveled more than a quarter of a trillion dollars in tarp funds into the financial system—without restrictions, accountability, or even common sense. The authors reveal how much of it ended up in the wrong hands, doing the opposite of what was needed.

.....

the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, putting $700 billion into the hands of the Treasury Department to bail out the nation’s banks at a moment of vanishing credit and peak financial panic. Over the next three months, Treasury poured nearly $239 billion into 296 of the nation’s 8,000 banks. The money went to big banks. It went to small banks. It went to banks that desperately wanted the money. It went to banks that didn’t want the money at all but had been ordered by Treasury to take it anyway. It went to banks that were quite happy to accept the windfall, and used the money simply to buy other banks. Some banks received as much as $45 billion, others as little as $1.5 million. Sixty-seven percent went to eight institutions; 33 percent went to the rest. And that was just the money that went to banks. Tens of billions more went to other companies, all before Barack Obama took office. It was the largest single financial intervention by Treasury into the banking system in U.S. history.

But once the money left the building, the government lost all track of it. The Treasury Department knew where it had sent the money, but nothing about what was done with it. Did the money aid the recovery? Was it spent for the purposes Congress intended? Did it save banks from collapse? Paulson’s Treasury Department had no idea, and didn’t seem to care. It never required the banks to explain what they did with this unprecedented infusion of capital.

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/10/bailout200910

[girl gone mad]

14. Sigh...

As Tanta would say, hoocoodanode?

[DemReadingDU]

26. How the 2008 bank run really happened - Lehman collapse

9/9/09 Sleep-At-Night-Money Lost in Lehman Lesson Missing $63 Billion

Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. left his suite at Manhattan’s Waldorf-Astoria Hotel last Sept. 15 after a sleepless night, feeling he’d done all he could to minimize the damage from that morning’s collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., aides said.

At meetings concluded the previous evening at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Paulson and executives of the world’s largest financial institutions worked to head off two threats they anticipated in the wake of the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history. The bankers spent hours trying to unwind Lehman-related credit-default swaps, bets made on whether companies will repay their debts. And with the help of a rule change by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, they were confident bank-to- bank loans would keep flowing.

“The general feeling was things were working,” said Phillip L. Swagel, Paulson’s assistant secretary for economic policy, who remained in Washington that weekend.

Nobody accounted for Bruce R. Bent. The 72-year-old graduate of St. John’s University in Queens, New York, created the first money market fund in 1971, the Reserve Primary Fund. He touted it as an investment so safe it would lull clients to sleep -- so safe that, even with $785 million in loans to tottering Lehman, Bent and his wife had jetted to Rome that Sunday evening to celebrate their 50th wedding anniversary.

$3.6 Trillion Market

Bent’s $62.5 billion fund had lent money to Lehman, mostly by acquiring short-term notes called commercial paper, used by companies to pay everyday expenses such as utilities and payroll and by Wall Street to fund everything from takeovers to the mortgages it turns into bonds. Money funds like Bent’s are the biggest buyers of commercial paper, purchasing about 40 percent of outstanding issues, according to the Fed.

It was commercial paper and the $3.6 trillion money market industry that traded the notes that came close to sinking the global economy -- not a breakdown in credit-default swaps or bank-to-bank lending. The bankers were focused on saving themselves, and commercial paper, as invisible as the air they breathed, never came up at the meetings, according to one of the two dozen executives invited to the New York Fed by its president, Timothy F. Geithner, 48, and Paulson.

7 page article...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aLhi.S5xkemY

[ozymandius]

11. Study Says World's Stocks Controlled by Select Few

This is was published on August 25th. - ozy

WASHINGTON -- A recent analysis of the 2007 financial markets of 48 countries has revealed that the world's finances are in the hands of just a few mutual funds, banks, and corporations. This is the first clear picture of the global concentration of financial power, and point out the worldwide financial system's vulnerability as it stood on the brink of the current economic crisis.

A pair of physicists at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich did a physics-based analysis of the world economy as it looked in early 2007. Stefano Battiston and James Glattfelder extracted the information from the tangled yarn that links 24,877 stocks and 106,141 shareholding entities in 48 countries, revealing what they called the "backbone" of each country's financial market. These backbones represented the owners of 80 percent of a country's market capital, yet consisted of remarkably few shareholders.

.....

he most pared-down backbones exist in Anglo-Saxon countries, including the U.S., Australia, and the U.K. Paradoxically; these same countries are considered by economists to have the most widely-held stocks in the world, with ownership of companies tending to be spread out among many investors. But while each American company may link to many owners, Glattfelder and Battiston's analysis found that the owners varied little from stock to stock, meaning that comparatively few hands are holding the reins of the entire market.

.....

Based on their analysis, Glattfelder and Battiston identified the ten investment entities who are “big fish” in the most countries. The biggest fish was the Capital Group Companies, with major stakes in 36 of the 48 countries studied. In identifying these major players, the physicists accounted for secondary ownership -- owning stock in companies who then owned stock in another company -- in an attempt to quantify the potential control a given agent might have in a market.

http://www.insidescience.org/research/study_says_world_s_stocks_controlled_by_select_few

[Tansy_Gold]

16. I'm shocked, shocked I tell you. Absolutely shocked. Surprised.

Dumbfounded. Astonished. Shocked. Utterly and completely shocked.




Tansy Gold

[AnneD]

27. Need a glass of water.....

maybe a stiff shot of scotch to help you overcome that shock...:sarcasm: but you knew that anyway.

[Demeter]

39. Or a cold compress on the back of the neck

[AnneD]

42. I'll hold...

your hair back for you with my free hand-I'm not going to let a glass of scotch go to waste.

[DemReadingDU]

17. a study done by a pair of physicists

The results will be published in an upcoming issue of the journal Physical Review E.
*********

It took physicists to figure this out?
:crazy:

[zogofzorkon]

30. Physicists understand numbers like no one else nt

[OnceUponTimeOnTheNet]

45. Economical Quantum Entanglement

:hurts: And down the shitter we all go.

[amandabeech]

34. I'd need to see the details of how these physicists determined indirect or beneficial ownership

of stocks and bonds.

I worked some in this area in the '80s and '90s, and tracking indirect ownership can be extremely tricky. Someone who doesn't know the field may end his or her inquiry three or four layers above the true beneficial owners.

So if these physicists had seriously bad information going in there is a great likelihood that they had seriously bad information going out on the old computer axiom, "Garbage in--garbage out."

Substantial consolidation of ownership would not surprise me, but I certainly would not cite this study as evidence without considerably more information on its methodology.

[ozymandius]

12. Have a nice day, everyone.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Time for me to get to work. See you after the 3:30 bell.

:hi:

[Roland99]

13. Go and indoctrinate some kiddies!

:-)

[AnneD]

28. Morning Marketeers.....

:donut: and lurkers. I love todays cartoon. Our kids at this mainly all black middle school have to bring in forms. I am so mad I can't spit straight. These kids need role models, esp. black male role models. Anyone with any knowledge about kids and their growth and development is aware of that. That's why you don't see the M$M interviewing many teachers giving those crary assed interviews. Most know better than spout such ignorance. Obama has, in the local parlance, street cred......the kids LISTEN to him (especially the kids at our school). We can say the same things all day long and it goes in one ear and out the other. But let Barack say it....and it's like they are hearing it for the first time.

So Mr. President-give your address. There are some children that need to hear your address, especially now in this time of division and mean spirited selfishness. Give these kids hope. These kids still have to make it over the divide-give them some good bearings. They can't hear it enough.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Roland99]

46. Hear! Hear!

[UpInArms]

18. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 77.219 Change -0.059 (-0.08%)

G20 Pledges to Coordinate Stimulus Exit Plans to Limit Market Volatility

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/G20_Pledges_to_Coordinate_Stimulus_1252301310285.html

Finance ministers and central bankers from the G20 nations pledged to coordinate plans to exit expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in a bid to limit destabilizing volatility in the interest rate and currency markets at a summit in London, but cooperation looks less likely as the economy improves.

Key Overnight Developments

• New Zealand House Prices Rose for Fourth Month in August, Says QV
• G20 Pledges to Coordinate Stimulus Exit Plans to Limit Market Volatility
• Euro, British Pound Diverge Against US Dollar in Overnight Trading


Critical Levels



The Euro traded higher to start the trading week, adding as much as 0.3% against the US Dollar. The British Pound diverged from the single currency, slipping downward to test as low as 1.6366 against the greenback.

...more...

US Dollar Hits a New Low for the Year but do Fundamentals Support a Bear Trend?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Hits_a_New_1252456582280.html

It was an exciting return to the market for American traders coming back from the extended holiday. The influx of liquidity was met with (if it did not in fact spark) a crucial plunge from the US dollar. On a trade-weighted basis, the greenback suffered its steepest loss since the first day of August and subsequently closed at lows not seen since last September of last year. Alone, this would support the notion that the dollar has initiated the next leg of its medium-term bear trend; but there is still reason to be cautious and skeptical. From price action alone EURUSD, USDCHF, AUDUSD and NZDUSD have all forced dollar-related support. In contrast, whereas the pound, Canadian dollar and Japanese yen have gained ground against the world’s most liquid currency; they have not yet established the same progress.

The fundamentals behind this tentative shift offer more details and thereby give a better sense of its development. Pressure has built up against the greenback for months; so this move is not without its merit. Among the short-term factors that contributed to today’s move, the World Economic Forum (best known as the host for the annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland) released a report that supplanted the US as the most competitive economy in the world with Switzerland. Further readings put the country at 108th for trust in banks, 106th for access to financing and 93rd for economic stability (out of 133 participants). From the economic docket, the Federal Reserve reported the biggest drop in consumer credit on record. The $21.6 billion decline through June marks the sixth monthly decline and extends the worst trend since 1991. Both a reflection of credit restrictions and lack of demand, this report significantly diminishes the outlook for a recovery – as the consumer is the largest component of growth by a wide margin.

What is needed to maintain true dollar depreciation beyond its already-low levels though is the long-term fundamental outlook. This past weekend’s G20 meeting should not be written off for influence today. US market participants no doubt responded to the suggestion that policy officials are coming closer to an appropriate time to withdrawal monetary and fiscal stimulus. And, though there is a desire to make this shift a coordinated one, it is clear that there will be leaders and laggards – with the United States falling into the latter category. Other concerns include the slow efforts to replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency and the fact that the country will have to float record-breaking deficits well after the recovery is underway as paying off the debt will be a timely process in itself. However, these are not particularly novel concerns. Indeed, these are realities that have long been factored in. What we need to know to determine the trend is whether the outlook for risk appetite is strong enough that investors have the luxury to focus on these vague concerns (remember most of the developed world is in the same situation as the US). If this is the case, we should expect investor sentiment to advance uniformly and unequivocally over the coming weeks.

...more...

[DemReadingDU]

19. DEBTORS REVOLT BEGINS NOW!

9/8/09
text associated with video:
"Message to Bank of America: I've decided to it's time to take a stand against the banksters' usury and greed! If our founding fathers were willing to sacrifice their LIVES for our FREEDOM, then I can certainly sacrifice my credit score and be willing to be sued. I'm staging a DEBTOR'S REVOLT!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGC1mCS4OVo


edit to add...
9/9/09 per Karl Denninger
"Without comment..... none necessary - she's spot-on, in my opinion, and if you, through no fault of your own (you're NOT a deadbeat) have had this happen to you, then I fully support doing exactly what she is - tell 'em to get stuffed.
Do realize that civil disobedience has consequences, but it also brings a huge breath of fresh air into your life!"
http://market-ticker.org/archives/1419-And-So-It-Begins-Debtors-Revolt.html

[Dr.Phool]

23. Everybody should do that.

Chase tried to up my rate from prime to prime +8.5. I told them if they did, I'd close 3 accounts with them (Two have a zero balance).

If they pull some shit like that on me, I'll quit paying also.

[Festivito]

24. She has no attachable wealth. I'd check with a lawyer.

You might try an escrow account -- at a different bank.

I understand the outrage. I'm so outraged, I have outrage fatigue.

Generally the first conversation with a lawyer is free.

[Hugin]

25. Gee, how long have we been saying this was exactly what would happen?

Since way back... When the gutless """"Credit Card Reform*****"""" was still only a twinkle in a predatory lender's eyes. :eyes:

Jeeze, now... NOW, they will proceed to do EXACTLY the same thing with Health Care. Really. Mark my words... EXACTLY THE SAME THING.

Why do I even say anything?


* Loophole #1
* Loophole #2
* Loophole #3
* Loophole #4
* Frequent Bank Lobbyist Courtesy Loophole.

[Dr.Phool]

20. Good morning folks.

I just got back from the land of good christian racists. If South Carolina ever secedes again, we should let them. Hell, encourage them.

Had a good trip over all, except for the alligator I ran over at 3:00am on the way up.

[kickysnana]

32. Definitely not a good morning for the alligator...n/t

[Festivito]

21. Debt: 09/04/2009 11,785,028,226,957.00 (DOWN 2,033,979,756.50) (Debt up 2/3B$.)

(Debt up about two-thirds of a billion, FICA side down two billion. A wishful good morning, all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,476,061,494,367.04 + 4,308,966,732,589.96
UP 664,126.38 + DOWN 2,034,643,882.88

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.76, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,357,941 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 08/24/2009 13:24 -> 307,261,605
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,343.01.
A family of three owes $115,029.03. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 5,451,475,519.36.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,179,464,564.84.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,044,643,127.26.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 157 reports in 227 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.10B$/day so far.
There were 232 reports in 339 days of FY2009 averaging 7.59B$ per report, 5.19B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,234 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.5 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/04/2009 11,785,028,226,957.00 BHO (UP 1,158,151,178,043.92 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,760,303,330,044.60 so far this fiscal year, broken down below:
Borrowed in FY2009: 0,602,152,152,000.59 in part from time during Bush reign.
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,158,151,178,043.92 in part since Obama takes over.


LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/14/2009 +000,017,806,259.60 ------------*******
08/17/2009 +012,224,191,599.44 ------------********** Mon
08/18/2009 +036,282,270,009.21 ------------**********
08/19/2009 +000,703,521,737.77 ------------********
08/20/2009 +001,088,553,104.23 ------------*********
08/21/2009 +000,333,547,281.04 ------------********
08/24/2009 +000,472,040,908.69 ------------******** Mon
08/25/2009 +000,287,748,587.67 ------------********
08/26/2009 -000,466,043,865.86 ---
08/27/2009 +008,131,449,864.04 ------------*********
08/28/2009 +000,123,059,531.85 ------------********
09/01/2009 +087,210,147,628.98 ------------********** Tue
09/02/2009 +000,313,556,741.81 ------------********
09/03/2009 -005,471,580,596.27 --
09/04/2009 +000,000,664,126.38 ------------*****

141,250,932,918.58 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4049656&mesg_id=4049723

[Robbien]

22. News from September 9th 1930

Some of “the shrewdest market traders” now see “definite turning point” in stocks. Conclusion isn't based on “chart theories such as double or triple tops” but on fundamentals. Believe long side will be the safe one from now on, and “standard stocks can be bought with assurance of profit. The corporations, the country, and the people are very rich, richer than after any previous panic, ... industry and the market are in a strong position to stage a comeback.”

http://newsfrom1930.blogspot.com/2009/09/tuesday-september-9-1930-dow-24284-080.html



Pundits from the 1930s sound just the same as CNBC's talking heads today. Now that's worrisome.

Henry Ford believed depression would be over by no later than the end of October.

[Papa Boule]

31. K&R for the cartoon. n/t

[TheWatcher]

36. Although this has already been covered in Dollar Watch this morning

But it bears repeating again:

THE DOLLAR TOOK A MASSIVE DIVE THIS MORNING, and is about to break key support AGAIN:

?s=NYBOT_DX&t=f&w=15&a=50&v=d12

They managed to hold 78 for a remarkably long time, but now things have started to really deteriorate. That chart looks like a terminal patient to me.

I know we can't put much "stock" (HA! I kill me) in Charts anymore, because just about EVERY Market is manipulated and rigged to SOME degree, but by all realistic fundamental indications, the Dollar cannot hold up much longer, and whether it is a slow bleed or cardiac arrest, it WILL continue to deteriorate.

In Market news, the Yahoo Headlines have been nothing short of a Laugh-In Skit for two days now. Yesterday was a real howler as we were told that Stocks were going up because a Merger, The Price of Gold going over $1000, and Oil Prices Going up was boosting Investor Confidence about the "Economic Recovery."

Today we are treated to this: (Now, I want to make sure that all of you have your drinks planted firmly on your desks, and that if you have taken a sip or a gulp while reading this, DO NOT READ FURTHER UNTIL YOU HAVE SAFELY SWALLOWED. I do not want to be responsible for you needing a new Monitor)



Rising commodities push industrial stocks higher
Stocks rise as commodities prices rally, dollar stays near recent lows; industrials climb

NEW YORK (AP) -- Rallying industrial companies sent the stock market higher Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's latest assessment of the economy.


Investors are increasingly optimistic about profits at big industrial companies, and stock like Boeing and General Electric are seeing some of the biggest gains. Investors kept an eye on the weak dollar, which is lifting prices for commodities and helping to boost the stocks of materials producers.

Later Wednesday, the Fed will release its beige book, a region-by-region look at the economy. The report is due at 2 p.m. EDT.

"If there are any surprises in there it could have dramatic impact on the market," said Joe Heider, president of Dawson Wealth Management in Cleveland. "My personal belief is, the discussion is going to indicate that inflation is subdued and not a concern at this point."

Meanwhile, investors have been tracking (ignoring) the dollar, which is trading near lows for the year against the euro and a two-month low against the yen after sinking Tuesday. The dollar's recent drop is lifting commodities prices, including oil which is extending its gains.

Now, I will just leave that for all of you to discuss, because frankly, the fuzzy logic we are being told here is SO BREATHTAKING, I'm almost SPEECHLESS.

So tell ALL of your friends, "The Dollar Collapse Is The Key To Manufacturing GROWTH, and The Key To The Economic Recovery. $900 Oil is The Key To The Economic Recovery. $1000 Gold Means that it's time to spend everything you have at the Mall."

Just remember to set aside enough to cover your fines for that health insurance you can't afford. (Hey, just be glad they don't Cite you or arrest you for not having it, like they do with your Auto Insurance. But don't fret, I'm SURE that will be coming soon too.)

Praise Marty Moose.

:beer:

[Demeter]

38. The Thing About Rigged Markets

When they do go down, it's because no amount of lying, cover-up or manipulation can keep them up anymore.

[TheWatcher]

40. AND it's always followed by teary-eyed, faux concerned Commentators

With their hands stapled to their foreheads swaying back and forth, consoling the sheep viewers that "no one could have foreseen....."

[kickysnana]

44. A friends son was trying to pay tuition in China yesterday and today...hohboy!

The college would not take a credit card or check on an American bank. He had to open up a bank account there. His parents were not allowed to send only money from a credit card advance (financial aid will arrive after he is registered there) so they had to hit their savings.

Bank fee, wiring fee, chinese bank fee, exchange fee, long distance charges etc etc. The only thing they didn't do is ask them to run it through Japan too.

[TheWatcher]

47. The Game is Up, but most of the people don't know it yet.

That right there should tell you something.

Americans are living in a FANTASY WORLD.

And it's not going to last much longer.

[Demeter]

37. Madoff's properties in NYC, Florida up for sale

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090909/ap_on_re_us/us_madoff_real_estate_4

It's where Bernard Madoff broke down and confessed to his massive fraud, frantically wrote checks for millions of dollars as the scheme unraveled and appeared in a bathrobe to greet the FBI agents who arrested him.

Soon the world will see whether Madoff's luxury penthouse apartment — perhaps the only former crime scene featuring four fireplaces, a wraparound terrace and closet space galore — also will hit the jackpot on the Manhattan real estate market.

The U.S. Marshals Service plans to put the 4,000-square-foot duplex in a 12-story doorman building on the Upper East Side up for sale this week, betting that exclusivity outweighs notoriety.

Madoff "is behind bars," said deputy U.S. Marshal Roland Ubaldo during a tour offered Tuesday to The Associated Press. "We believe the cloud has passed."

The marshals also gave the AP a look inside the disgraced financier's 8,700-square-foot, Mexican-tiled estate in Palm Beach, Fla., a yacht and two smaller boats docked in Ft. Lauderdale — property it hopes to sell off to raise tens of millions of dollars to help reimburse victims.

Prices for the New York and Florida home won't be set until brokers are selected later this week. His seaside beach house on southeastern Long Island was listed last week for $8.75 million.

Madoff estimated his Manhattan apartment was worth $7 million, the Florida home $11 million and the boat $2.2 million in a federal declaration late last year.

Under a court order stripping the Madoffs of most of their wealth, the marshals also want to bring in more money by auctioning off the boats and furnishings still in the homes, including a baby grand piano and several works of art.

ARTICLE CONTINUES WITH SNEERING DESCRIPTIONS AND HISTORY OF MADOFF SCANDAL.