STOCK MARKET WATCH, TUESDAY JULY 29.....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Tuesday July 29, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 542
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 259
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 231 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 289 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 131
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 615
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 0
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 28, 2003

Dow 9,266.51 -18.06 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 1,735.34 +4.64 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 996.52 -2.16 (-0.22%)
10-Year Bond 4.28% +0.11 (+2.54%)
Gold future...... 366.70 +2.10 (+0.58%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Jim Puplava

The Earnings Game and Other Bull Markets (The Silver Streak)

We are now at halftime for Q2 earnings. As usual companies have beat estimates. There is nothing new there because that is the way the game is played. Company’s lower guidance, analyst’s lower estimates, and then companies report actual results that beat forecasts. You would never really have a good handle on things if you listened only to financial reports coming from the financial media. "Times are good and getting better" and "This is a new bull market" are constant mantras repeated every day and every week. The bulls site rising stock prices as evidence that a new bull market has begun in stocks. There is another bull market going on that nobody talks about that I will get to in a moment. For now I want to cover the earnings story since that is the topic dû jour. Earnings look good as long as you don’t ask questions.

To start out, earnings for S&P companies have risen over 8 percent from a year ago. That has topped analysts’ estimates of 5.3 percent. This is the bull story that you hear almost daily, “earnings are beating estimates.” These numbers sound good only if you forget that at the beginning of the year Q2 estimates were supposed to rise 11 percent. After Q1 results were reported, analysts slashed estimates by more than half to the now present 5.3 percent number. By lowering estimates to a level this low, Wall Street gave companies a wide swath in which to easily beat the numbers. Yes, companies were able to beat expectations, but only because those expectations were lowered dramatically. So the good news is that companies are beating estimates, but only because those estimates keep moving lower.

The next question is how companies are improving earnings. Is the improvement coming from higher top line sales growth and higher margins which would indicate an improvement in the earnings environment? Unfortunately the answer to both questions is no.

more meat...

[ze_dscherman]

3. An interview with Nobel Price Winner Akerlof on federal deficit

Direct link: http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,258983,00.html

DU link: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=39900&mesg_id=39900&page=

And a good morning to you all (it's afternoon here)!

[ozymandius]

4. Good article.

For anyone who questions how massive government debt will affect everyone, I commend this article to their attention.

[Merlin]

14. I think he's right about civil disobedience if we lose in '04

Loved this part:

Akerlof: I think this is the worst government the US has ever had in its more than 200 years of history. It has engaged in extraordinarily irresponsible policies not only in foreign and economic but also in social and environmental policy. This is not normal government policy. Now is the time for people to engage in civil disobedience.

In '92 we had Perot who spent millions trying to make people aware of the dangers of deficits. He succeeded in so doing, but his ego got in the way of getting the lesson to stick.

Now we are in a far more perilous situation. Though Social Security is technicall sound, it's assets are invested in the federal debt. Liquidation of those assets will be necessary to support benefit payments as the baby boomers retire. The strain on the federal budget will be well beyond our capacity to deal with it without severe disruption.

How in heaven's name do we make people aware of this serious impending danger? It's way too complicated for most. Surely the neocons see it. They are doing this deliberately. Their goal is to wreck the social safety net, destroy Social Security and forever blacken the electorate's faith in the Democratic Party's promises. This is a very deliberate train wreck in the making.

[Capn Sunshine]

38. "Cheap Labor Conservatives"

This little meme was pointed out yesterday on DU and pointed to an article entitled "How to Defeat a Conservative In Three minutes" or somesuch, but the bottom line here folks , is that to ensure a steady flow of cheap labor, social disasters such as the one mentioned are brought about intentionally. Cheap labor conservatives seek nothing less than the repeal of all the social gains made in the 20th century.

http://www.novogate.com/exco/index.php?boardid=1177 ==one place where the term is used frequently

[JNelson6563]

15. Good Morning Ozy!!!

So the prodigal son returns.....!! haha Just kiddin', glad to see you made it home safe and sound Ozy.

Love the wrap-up this morn, of course I usually do but today, I mean how many great points can be made in one article??

As Puplava points out, I've knows the estimates game that's going on, can't believe there are any analysts who don't. Of course they have to pretend they don't or the market plunges to where it should be and there's no profit in that!

Another blurb from the wrap-up that was like reading my mind:

Last week the Financial Times ran an article on the rigging of the U.S. markets. It may be one reason that many foreign entities are pulling out of the U.S. We once were considered to be the model that other markets strived for; now we have become the one they try to avoid.

Mmmmhmmm. I knew it!! Foreign investment is fleeing our shores as are so many jobs. Then he goes on to talk about gold and silver. Man! I have been thinking metals too!! I saw the otehr day where gold gained like 8 bucks an oz.

Lastly, I fear for the sanity of those in Treasuries. Holy cow, talk about brutal! Ouch!!

Crazy, crazy, crazy days!

Julie

[ozymandius]

17. Good morning Julie!

It was good to get away for the week. I would recommend that to anyone. See the ocean. Play with fish. Then eat them.

Thanks for doing some of the heavy lifting with Maeve.

While a late-week visit broke my DU news fast, I knew that everything would be fine with everyone safeguarding democracy, innocence and truth.

[catzies]

39. Wish he'd given a link to that Financial Times article

My boss has been out of the country, and there's a pile of FTs in his office I could go through, if only the search could be narrowed down. I'd really like to find that and read it. My confidence is low already but I'd like more insight.

[ze_dscherman]

2. Real Estate Bubble Theory Shows More Evidence

An article by John Wasik at Bloomberg:

July 28 (Bloomberg) -- When it's sweltering, you seek a cool place. When it comes to hot residential real estate, it may be time to cool your ardor.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and the real estate industry insist that there's no real estate bubble. Greenspan's conventional wisdom argument is that most people don't turn over relatively illiquid real estate the way they sell stocks and bonds.

That's true, yet there's evidence that housing prices may be slackening. A combination of high consumer debt, unemployment and the flow of hot money back into stocks will trigger a decline in the hottest residential markets. It's time to prepare for the inevitable bursting of the bubble.


http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&sid=aN9ui2A3TsDg&refer=columnist_wasik

[ozymandius]

5. Early prognosticator yammering.

Stocks Set to Rise; Consumer Data Awaited

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are poised to open slightly higher on Tuesday as investors await the July consumer confidence report, the first of a series of releases this week that could show proof of improvement in the U.S. economy.
<..cut..>
"Right now we're looking to a mixed to slightly higher opening," said Peter Cardillo, chief strategist and director of research at Global Partners Securities Inc. "We do have earnings and we do have a piece of economic news today, which is consumer confidence for July. I think the mood swing of the market will be based on the data coming out."

Standard & Poor's 500 stock index futures for September were up 3.20 points at 997.10, while Nasdaq futures for the same month crept up 3.5 points to 1,287.00. Futures for the Dow industrials rose 30 points to 9,262.

The stock market has rallied since March on the expectation an economic recovery is underway. Corporate America's second-quarter results have largely been coming in on target, but they have not been stellar enough to satisfy investors looking for clear signs corporate profits are set for a turnaround.

story

[ozymandius]

6. hot stocks slump in early trading

Before the Bell - Tyco, Nvidia slump

NEW YORK, July 29 (Reuters) - Shares of Tyco International Ltd. TYC.N fell before the opening bell on Tuesday after the conglomerate posted its quarterly results and restated financial results from previous years.

short story

[ozymandius]

7. FOREX-Dollar perks up ahead of US confidence data

LONDON, July 29 (Reuters) - The dollar gained ground on Tuesday, reversing earlier losses as markets expected U.S. consumer confidence data, the first in a series of U.S. indicators this week, to paint a favourable picture for an economic recovery.

All the signs are pointing to an improvement in confidence as stock markets have rallied and the Federal Reserve has made encouraging noises about the prospects for recovery in the world's biggest economy.

But better than expected U.S. durable goods data failed to inspire the dollar on Friday, with investors still hesitant to commit themselves until they see manufacturing, gross domestic product and jobs data due later in the week.

story

[ozymandius]

8. GLOBAL (bond) MARKETS-Rebound in sight, markets wait for confirmation

LONDON, July 29 (Reuters) - Investors on Tuesday sifted through evidence that the world's economy is healing and company earnings responding, but kept most financial markets level ahead of key data to confirm the trend.

European stocks made modest gains, demand for bonds slipped and the dollar was moderately up against major currencies.

Investors are eyeing a series of key reports this week, including manufacturing, jobs and growth, for evidence of improvement in the world-driving U.S. economy.

story

[ozymandius]

9. Banks 'were aware of Enron's sham deals'

Leading Wall Street banks knew Enron was misleading investors when they took part in sham deals to disguise its financial problems, an official report said on Monday.

The report by Enron's court- appointed examiner said the misconduct of Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase and four other international banks could jeopardise their $5bn of claims against the bankrupt energy trader.

<..cut..>
The Batson report said conclusions could be drawn that the banks "had actual knowledge of the wrongful conduct " and "gave substantial assistance . . . by participating in the structuring and closing of the SPE transactions."

Monday's SEC actions were civil cases. Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase have avoided criminal charges. People close to the negotiations said a criminal case had been hard to build and prosecutors had been mindful of potentially creating wider instability in the financial system.

story

emphasis added

[ozymandius]

10. Latest Enron autopsy implicates Wall Street

Autopsies of Enron have thoroughly highlighted the role that certain accountants from Arthur Andersen and the energy company's own unscrupulous executives played in its demise. But on Monday, a new cause of death was illuminated: Wall Street.

A long-awaited report from Neil Batson, the court-appointed bankruptcy examiner, concludes there is ample evidence that Enron's bankers - led by Citigroup and JP Morgan - were not only aware of the company's wrongful conduct, but knowingly helped it along.

The latest Batson report, which runs to nearly 1,000 pages, offers intricate details of how the banks - often against their own internal objections - helped devise the dubious financial schemes that allowed Enron to survive.

much more

[ozymandius]

11. Stock Prices Are Set to Open Higher

NEW YORK - U.S. stocks are set to open higher Tuesday, improving slightly throughout the morning ahead of more earnings reports and economic data.
<..cut..>
Wall Street stalled Monday as upbeat earnings from Northrop Grumman and Kellogg couldn't overcome investor concerns that the market's recent rally might have come too quickly. Stocks closed narrowly mixed.
<..cut..>
In U.S. corporate news, Citigroup Inc. and J.P, Morgan Chase & Co. agreed to pay a total of $305 million to settle actions related to loans and trades made with Enron Corp. and Dynegy Inc. and to overhaul the way they vet their most complex financial deals.

story

With regards to the Enron settlements: this implicates complicity in fraud. I am curious if this opens the door for an onslaught of individual suits, perhaps resulting in class-action status, against Citigroup and J.P, Morgan Chase.

[ozymandius]

12. Banks get housed

The big buys banks made in mortgages are coming back to haunt them.

According to the Federal Reserve's most recent report on bank assets and liabilities, large U.S.-based banks holdings in the tradable baskets of mortgages known as mortgage-backed securities fell by $42.6 billion to $360 billion in the week ended July 16. That 11.6 percent drop was the biggest one-week decline on record.

It was also a far cry from what was happening just a month earlier, when the banks were loading up on the mortgage-backeds at an unprecedented pace. The reason? With the Fed's promise to keep short-term rates low for as far as the eye can see, and chatter abounding that it would keep long-term rates low by any means necessary, buying mortgage-backed securities seemed like a great idea.

When they did begin to sell, however, that sent not just mortgage-backed yields but Treasury yields higher, too, because of the way the two markets are interconnected.

more

[ozymandius]

13. THANKS TO MAEVE AND JULIE

for starting this thread while my family and I were on the left coast. Please thank them personally.

Thanks!

[JNelson6563]

16. aw shucks!

Maeve carried the heavy load, I just toted the carry-ons. :-)

Glad you're back! :hi:

Julie

[Maeve]

18. You are welcome and welcome back!

Hope it was a great trip! I'm going to be scarcer around here for the next month...I have to get ready for a festival this weekend and then I get a week and a half to prepare for our fantastic week and a half in Ireland! (first overseas trip, first vacation without kids in 19 years)

The futures look oh so cheerful, but that has become meaningless. The happy-talk is just talk and some seems to be whistling past the graveyard. I remain pessimistic until November--we get that far without a major set-back and I'll buy the rose-colored glasses.

[ozymandius]

19. Thanks Maeve!

The trip sounds wonderful! And no kids!! Are they disappointed?

Futures have become the morning comics for me as well. It really surprises me how often they are wrong.

[Maeve]

21. The boys will be on their own, the girls at Grandma's house

So the boys are slightly psyched and the girls are resigned (Grandma lives in the country--boring--but she'll take them shopping, so that's good!) We"ll get back the day before they return to school, so that's a minor problem, but easily handled.

This futures blather for those following the treasury market:

"Conversely, the treasury market has weakened further across the yield curve, in an extension of the recent steepening move... The 10-year note is down 10 ticks, bringing its yield to 4.32%"
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[JNelson6563]

22. since we are reporting upcoming

sabbaticals, I am leaving today for the cottage and expect to be back Fri.

Just an FYI. I'll be able to keep an eye on the markets etc but no computer access. I should be here most of the day today.

Julie

[ozymandius]

26. My schedule is changing.

This comes as a result of my wife's work schedule changing. I will be able to start the thread each morning but will be gone throughout the middle of the day Monday through Wednesday - returning around 2pm for periodic updates. Thursday and Friday, I will kick off the thread but will then be gone for the entire day. My work load has gotten heavy all of a sudden.

This presents anyone who has never posted, or who has not posted regularly with an opportunity to step up to the plate.

[JNelson6563]

28. that is good news Ozy

glad to hear of the work load as I know that was a concern. Good for you!!

I too hope some lurkers jump in. I know they are out there. I have been told by many that they read this thread daily but don't post in it.

Julie

[JNelson6563]

29. dupe~~sorry

*

[JNelson6563]

20. Well this will probably ruin your day

but it is necessary:

http://www.costofwar.com/

I'm going to post this in GD too but I thought yoiu marketeers might be interested as well.

Julie

[Maeve]

23. 9:35 and so it begins--up!

Dow 9,279.53 +13.02 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 1,742.83 +7.47 (+0.43%)
S&P 500 998.12 +1.60 (+0.16%)

[Maeve]

25. 9:44 and slipping into the red

Dow 9,261.96 -4.55 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,735.72 +0.36 (+0.02%)
S&P 500 996.04 -0.48 (-0.05%)

[Maeve]

27. 9:49 and all fall down

Dow 9,254.60 -11.91 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,733.33 -2.03 (-0.12%)
S&P 500 994.92 -1.60 (-0.16%)

Waiting for the 10 o'clock bounce...

[ozymandius]

24. McDonald's Earnings Fall 5 Percent

CHICAGO (Reuters) - McDonald's Corp. MCD.N , the world's largest fast-food company, on Tuesday said quarterly profit fell 5 percent, as higher costs offset recent sales improvement in the United States, its largest market.

The company, which has faced increased competition and a shift in consumer preferences toward healthier foods, said it reported record second-quarter systemwide sales growth of 10 percent, as it unveiled new products ranging from entree-sized salads to McGriddles breakfast sandwiches.

story

[ozymandius]

30. 10:15 and the red is climbing

DJIA 9,193.26 -73.25 (-0.79%)
NASDAQ 1,720.52 -14.84 (-0.86%)
S&P 500 987.57 -8.95 (-0.90%)

[ozymandius]

31. Consumer Confidence Suffers Surprise Fall

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence suffered a sharp and unexpected fall in July as worries over rising unemployment took a heavy toll, the Conference Board reported on Tuesday.

The Conference Board's monthly consumer confidence index slid to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June, the lowest since March. The reading completely confounded analysts, who had looked for an improvement to 85.0.

<..cut..>
"The rising level of unemployment and sentiment that a turnaround in labor market conditions is not around the corner have contributed to deflating consumers' spirits this month," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center.

story

[ozymandius]

32. Stocks Drop on Consumer Confidence Data

The Conference Board said U.S. consumer confidence for July fell to 76.6 compared with a reading of 83.5 in June. The July reading was expected to be 85.0.

short story

[Maeve]

34. Yeah, they dropped--10:30

Dow 9,192.77 -73.74 (-0.80%)
Nasdaq 1,717.53 -17.83 (-1.03%)
S&P 500 986.96 -9.56 (-0.96%)

[slappypan]

35. Stocks drop on bad economic news?

Instead of rally? Since when? Have the investors finally sobered up?

[ozymandius]

33. Can you believe this goomer is Treasury Secretary?

Treasury's Snow: Economic Rebound on Way

MILWAUKEE (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Tuesday said he believed the economy was on the brink of a much faster recovery and a rise in long-term interest rates would not hinder that rebound.

"This economy is poised to take off. It's spring-loaded to go," Snow said during a CNBC interview conducted on a trip to Wisconsin and Minnesota with Commerce Secretary Don Evans and Labor Secretary Elaine Chao.

"I think in the months ahead, you're going to see growth rates in GDP (gross domestic product) for the American economy rising significantly. We're looking at well over 3 percent for the third quarter, 3-1/2 (percent) for the fourth quarter and over 4 percent for next year," Snow added.

story

[Coventina]

36. The "I Ching" on today's market

Hello everyone!

I'm back from beautiful California. Boy, I wish I could afford to live there. It is so lovely.
Anyway, today's reading is LIBERATION changing to ASSEMBLING. These are two hexagrams I am not very familiar with, I don't know that I have ever seen them come up before. The message of LIBERATION is to leave the past behind and seize an immediate opportunity for progress. I thought I would share the message of the changing lines, "You must now be particularly straightforward and virtuous in your efforts. Only you can save yourself." ASSEMBLING focuses on group dynamics and the importance of unity and bonding within the group.

Once again, I am not sure what Ching is trying to tell us with this. I'm wondering if this is directed at me, due to a situation I have going on at work.
I feel that Ching has overall been stressing attitudes and motivations in most of these readings. The "big" message I'm getting is that people looking to make a killing in this market will be undone by their greed.
Me, I'm just worried about my 401k, so I don't think I'm being all that greedy.

[Maeve]

45. Y'know...I wish some of the misAdministration would see that!

"You must now be particularly straightforward and virtuous in your efforts. Only you can save yourself."
:bounce:

[Maeve]

37. 10:53 with blather

10:30AM: Traders continue to unload positions following the sharp drop in the July Consumer Confidence report... The Conference Board's index slumped to its lowest reading in four months, at 76.6 (consensus of 85.0), as the expectations component fell (to 86.4) for the first time since the war in Iraq... The rise in the June unemployment rate to a nine-year high has renewed consumer concerns about the labor market, and business conditions as well...
Such a reaction, not surprisingly, has precipated a deep pullback in the indices given the market's mid-March run on expectations of a stronger 2H03 economic environment...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 9,189.06 -77.45 (-0.84%)
Nasdaq 1,717.05 -18.31 (-1.06%)
S&P 500 986.48 -10.04 (-1.01%)

[JNelson6563]

40. what happened?

When I left to run errands things were horribly dark, lookslike they went way up for a time and are on their way back down...?

12:21

Dow 9,243.26 -23.25 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,732.86 -2.50 (-0.14%)
S&P 500 994.32 -2.20 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.311% +0.027


Holy cow look at that 10yr!!!

Julie

[Maeve]

41. a rally was attempted--it lost a bit of steam

12:54 numbers:
Dow 9,251.59 -14.92 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 1,734.53 -0.83 (-0.05%)
S&P 500 994.91 -1.61 (-0.16%)

10-Yr Bond 4.328% +0.044

[Maeve]

42. HER'ES what happened!

"unconfirmed rumors of a Saddam Hussein capture have incited a short-covering rally"
12:05 briefing from http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html

And all they got was a tape of him.

[ze_dscherman]

43. Whish I could start rumors like that

Lots of money could be made ...

[Maeve]

44. 2:43 and red ink continues to flow

Dow 9,225.68 -40.83 (-0.44%)
Nasdaq 1,732.29 -3.07 (-0.18%)
S&P 500 991.76 -4.76 (-0.48%)

[Maeve]

46. 3:45--where will it end? Other than in the red, I mean...

Dow 9,212.87 -53.64 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq 1,726.93 -8.43 (-0.49%)
S&P 500 989.38 -7.14 (-0.72%)

[Maeve]

47. Final for the day

Sorry to be late--cable outage!
Close: An unexpected plunge in the July Consumer Confidence report held the stock market down for most of the day, and led to moderate losses for the indices... Rumors of Saddam Hussein's capture sparked a short-covering rally around mid-day; however, as soon as it became apparent that such talk was false, sellers resumed their previous efforts and sent the market towards its worst levels of the day... The sell-off, as mentioned, was spurred by the weaker than expected Consumer Confidence index...
The report slumped to its lowest reading in four months - to 76.6 versus the consensus estimate calling for an increase to 85.0 - on account of sharp declines in the key current conditions and expectations components of the index... The increase in the June employment rate to its highest level in nine years was the culprit behind the fall as it renewed concerns about economic growth in 2H03... Expectations of stronger economic activity have underpinned the market's recent run, and with data pointing to just the opposite, traders booked profits across the board...

Briefing.com would add, though, that the Conference Board reading reflects consumer sentiment on the prior month's environment, and is thus not the best indicator of future economic conditions...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 9,204.46 -62.05 (-0.67%)
Nasdaq 1,731.37 -3.99 (-0.23%)
S&P 500 989.28 -7.24 (-0.73%)