Pentagon's Futures Market Plan Condemned (depraved!)

[jeanmarc]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&ncid=514&e=5&u=/ap/20030728/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/terror_market

WASHINGTON - The Pentagon (news - web sites) is setting up a stock-market style system in which investors would bet on terror attacks, assassinations and other events in the Middle East. Defense officials hope to gain intelligence and useful predictions while investors who guessed right would win profits.

more

Two Democratic senators demanded Monday the project be stopped before investors begin registering this week. "The idea of a federal betting parlor on atrocities and terrorism is ridiculous and it's grotesque," Sen. Ron Wyden (news, bio, voting record), D-Ore., said

more

Although the Web site described the Policy Analysis Market as "a market in the future of the Middle East," the graphic also included the possibility of a North Korea (news - web sites) missile attack.


That graphic was apparently removed from the Web site hours after the news conference in which Wyden and fellow Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan (news, bio, voting record) of North Dakota criticizing the market.


Dorgan described it as useless, offensive and "unbelievably stupid."


"Can you imagine if another country set up a betting parlor so that people could go in ... and bet on the assassination of an American political figure, or the overthrow of this institution or that institution?" he said.





I'm speechless.

[Redleg]

1. Unfuckingbelievable! I guess I shouldn't be suprised anymore.

It's almost to the point of absurdity.

[malachi]

63. Surprised??

Why should you be surprised? This originates from the same gang of miscreants that has given us the great victory in Iraq. They all should be tried, convicted and drawn and fuckin' quartered on national tv.

[sattahipdeep]

2. Can you say Krongard.

Curious trades. Curious connections. No public release of AN investigative
findings...And no one talks abou it anÿmore. ALL coincidence??

And, if ÿou research the topic, including Krongard, PROMUS, BCCI, CITI and
Ingram just a bit further, it's the proverbial tip of the iceberg.

[Sterling]

106. Why are people not flipping out over this?

Anyone remember the put options from 9-11? Hello? Anyone there?

[quilp]

3. It's got to be a hoax.

No one, not even the Republican "Free Market" clowns running the Pentagon could be this crassly stupid. Then again the Defense Department is run by Rumsfeld. Thank God for the Democrats.

[salin]

17. No hoax - the site (from the pentagon)

is on a thread in GD as we speak. Apparently one part has already been scrubbed - but the gist of the scheme - is up there still to be read.

[lancemurdoch]

34. Not a hoax

This is so unbelievable it's hard not to think it's a hoax. But it isn't - for one thing, the FutureMap project is on an official military web site, http://www.darpa.mil/iao/FutureMap.htm . For another thing, the newspapers have articles about it, and people in Congress are talking about it.

A Washington Post review of Ann Coulter's Treason says he is pleased with the books release because it is so nutty, he knows the conservative movements time is up. I agree - I want it's time to be up yesterday, I'm certainly impatient about it, but I think the free market over everything, conservative wave is coming to a crashing crescendo before it peters out. This is just another sign of a movement that has gone so over the cliff that it's in it's last days, at least for the next few decades.

[Maccagirl]

4. Just when things can't get any more bizarre...

I'm with you...words fail me.

[gristy]

5. this doesn't pass the smell test

Is this a hoax??

[DagmarK]

7. Yes, It;s true.....check out Wyden's senate website!

(I had to verify this because it goes beyond the galaxy in grotestque barbaric attitudes and behavior)

http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html

Wyden, Dorgan Call For Immediate Halt to
Tax-Funded "Terror Market" Scheme Defense Department program sells “futures” in possible terrorist attacks;

offers profit potential to anonymous bidders if catastrophic events occur


*offers PROFIT potential. So basically.......bidders would have a VESTED INTEREST in a terror attack occurring. Oh, that's good......really good.

You know what.....this has to have been dreamed up by Rummy and his little OSP. Oh yeah...can you see them sitting around table thinking, "hmmmmmm, how can we get the terrorists just to come to us.....to smoke 'em out?" "Hey, I know.....let's offer a fool's reward for anyone who calls an attack, and then we can use HSD's stealth to track who bids and investigate THEM!!" "Golly gee, Rummy, You're a friggin genious!"

2-1 odds that this was the scenario...........

[DagmarK]

9. Heck, here's Wyden's whole submission from his site.......

July 28, 2003

Washington, DC – U.S. Senators Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) today called for the immediate end of a Defense Department project ostensibly designed to predict terrorist events through the online selling of “futures” in terrorist attacks. The “Policy Analysis Market,” the first phase of the program, has already gone online with funds from a Federal grant and is scheduled to begin a beta test on Friday, August 1. The Defense Department has also requested $8 million for its “Futures Markets Applied to Prediction” (FutureMAP) initiative, which would expand on the Policy Analysis Market’s terror-wagering scheme. In a letter to the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA’s) Dr. John Poindexter today, Dorgan and Wyden said they would advocate against any funding for such a program, and told Poindexter they want the Policy Analysis Market stopped now.

“The example that you provide in your report would let participants gamble on the question, ‘Will terrorists attack Israel with bioweapons in the next year?’ Surely, such a threat should be met with intelligence gathering of the highest quality – not by putting the question to individuals betting on an Internet website,” the Senators wrote to Poindexter. “Spending taxpayer dollars to create terrorism betting parlors is as wasteful as it is repugnant. The American people want the Federal government to use its resources enhancing our security, not gambling on it.”

The Policy Analysis Market and the FutureMAP program would work much like other financial markets, with investors buying “futures” in events they think are likely to happen, and selling off futures as they believe events become less likely to happen. Some of the possibilities the Policy Analysis Market website offers for sale are the overthrow of the King of Jordan, the assassination of Yasser Arafat, and a missile attack by North Korea. Bidders would profit if the events for which they hold futures – including government coups, assassinations and missile attacks – occur.

The Policy Analysis Market program is scheduled to begin registration for potential investors this Friday, and its website offers examples of policy experts making trades in the system. However, the Policy Analysis Market website states an intention to eventually include thousands of traders who only have to pick a username and password to participate. Additionally, the Policy Analysis Market website assures potential investors that DARPA will not have access to their identities or funds. This promise creates the possibility that terrorists themselves could drive up the market for an event they are planning and profit from an attack, or even make false bets to mislead intelligence authorities.

“Just last week the 9/11 report proved that the basics of communication and follow-through ought to be our primary weapons against the terrorist threat,” said Wyden, a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee. “Make-believe markets trading in possibilities that turn the stomach hardly seem like a sensible next step to take with taxpayer money in the war on terror.”

“This is an appalling waste of taxpayers’ money,” said Dorgan, a member of the Senate Defense Appropriations Subcommittee. “We need to focus our resources on responsible intelligence gathering, on real terrorist threats. Spending millions of dollars on some kind of fantasy league terror game is absurd and, frankly, ought to make every American angry. What on Earth were they thinking?”

The Senate version of the Defense Appropriations bill currently contains no funding for the FutureMAP program or for any component of the Terrorism (formerly Total) Information Awareness (TIA) program, which Poindexter oversees. The House version contains funding for TIA and its component programs.

Further details of the Policy Analysis Market and FutureMAP programs can be found in the Senators’ letter, and on the Policy Analysis Market website itself at www.policyanalysismarket.org.

********you guys gotta look at the WEBSITE at policyanalysismarket.org. It's a must see!!

[DagmarK]

11. DARPA is involved in this.......

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is interested in improving on existing techniques for predicting future events and for assessing the issues that underlie and influence what might happen. DARPA has funded the development and operations of PAM. U.S. government agencies will not be allowed to participate in PAM and DARPA will not have access to the identities or funds of PAM traders.

[starroute]

44. This Salon piece from 1999 may illuminate it

I knew this reminded me of something in my files! I found the article, and it's still available on Salon's website. (And you don't even have to sit through an ad to read it.) I think it explains exactly what the idiot-intellectuals thought they were doing with this.

http://archive.salon.com/tech/feature/1999/10/26/whisper_numbers/index.html

Imagine getting a hot stock tip in a conversation with a friend. The friend tells you that the tip comes from a number of "inside sources." At least he thinks so. But he's not really sure because he himself gets his tips in the mail, in unmarked envelopes. He doesn't know who his sources are, where their information comes from or why they're distributing the hot tips. Many of his informants don't even agree with each other. But he's used these tips before, and often they've worked. He's not really sure why.

Do you trust the tip?

<snip>

"Whisper numbers" have for some time been a subject of debate on Wall Street. Routinely, company profits exceed the "official" expectations of investment bank analysts. They almost have to: Companies that merely meet expectations are pummeled by the marketplace. The "whisper number" is a mysterious beast, a number leaked by insiders and traded furtively by analysts -- the "real" number that reflects what the big players on the Street really think a company's earnings will be for the quarter.

[gristy]

12. you're right, Dagmark, this thing is legit!

I think DUers need to write some letters on this.

Not to your congresspeople. Not yet.

To some media outlets. This story needs to be amplified. It is SO DISGUSTING. Even the cheap-labor/pro-war conservatives will be disgusted.

I shall write the NY Times and the Mpls Star Tribune right now.

[leQ]

8. a trend maybe?

http://www.ideosphere.com/fx/
http://www.longbets.org/

[twilight]

22. link to this site ... its very real

I found this from the GD Forum:

http://www.policyanalysismarket.org/pam_home.htm

It is very real. VERY!!!!

:nuke:

[meisje]

6. not a hoax! very real!!

n/t

[belab13]

10. It's all a game to these crooks. When do we get access to the

list of good ole boys/gals who are participating in this perfidy; gambling on other folks misfortunes. What kind of intelligence gathering scheme is this? I can understand assigning a surveillance program to the greater markets, dow, nasdaq... as evidenced by all the puts placed on American and United prior to 9/11 but this is pure gambling for sport venture, financed by our tax dollars.

[cmd]

13. Is Bill Bennett working for the Pentagon now?

Is there no depth to which this misadministration will go? Disgusting.

[gristy]

14. here's the letter I sent to [e-mail]

Come on folks, write a letter. Help get the AP story into your local papers. If you write them right NOW, it MIGHT help convince them to put it in tomorrow. Come on. Stop posting for just 5 MINUTES. Write a letter.

Re: Policy Analysis Market

Editor,

I have learned today of a most vile, disgusting, useless, horrible thing which our Federal Government is now spending money on.

They are setting up a "futures" market on terrorist attacks in the middle east.

You can read the AP story at http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&ncid=514&e=5&u=/ap/20030728/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/terror_market

U.S. Senators Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) just today called for the immediate end of a Defense Department project ostensibly designed to predict terrorist events through the online selling of ?futures? in terrorist attacks. You can read Senator Wyden's statement at: http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html

This is just too horrible to believe.

You have just GOT to write an article on this.

Regards,

On edit: At the NY Times, I also sent this to [e-mail] and [e-mail]
At the Star Tribune, I sent this letter to their senior editors.

[the masses against the classes]

35. write your letters

tell your representatives and tell every editorial board what we think of this depraved indifference...betting on assassinations? just so long as it isn't the smirking one, they don't give a fuck (the man don't give a fuck)...

[OldSoldier]

83. My very pro-Bush local socialist paper ran this on Page 1 today

When the fifty-cent house organ for Fort Bragg runs a story like this, things are lookin' bad for the home team.

[renegade000]

15. ITS OFFICIAL: WE'VE ENTERED THE TWILIGHT ZONE!

this is just so bizarre. americans nonchalantly capitalizing on the destruction of america? what the frickin hell?

i guess next we'll take a leaf out of the russian's book and start giving rides to people in fighters and nuclear sub- oh wait...did that already...

[gristy]

16. OK, while you guys are writing,

I'll go for a walk around the block. When I get back, I want to see those finished letters!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:spank::spank::spank::spank::spank::spank::spank::spank::spank::spank:
:spank::spank::spank::spank::spank::spank::spank::spank::spank::spank:
:spank::spank::spank::spank::spank::spank::spank::spank::spank::spank:

[The Lone Liberal]

18. Jesus Christ we are through the looking-glass.

What fuck is going on with this country. Have the inmates finally taken over the mad house. Folks it may be the time to start looking towards immigrating and I am not kidding. This is going to get worse and we are going to be face with some tough choices. It is not out of the realm of the possible now that they will start to consider rounding up political undesirables. Think about what is happening, they don’t even try pretending anymore, it is in your face. This is scary.

[gristy]

20. I'm back from my walk...

did you write your local press yet??

[leesa]

32. OK, OK, quit nagging already...wrote the damn letter

[Isere]

21. And Over the Rainbow!

Through the Looking Glass, Over the Rainbow.... Down the Rabbit Hole!
We are in an altered universe, folks. Any pretense to normality must be abandoned immediately. At first, I thought this must be the mother of all hoaxes and then I realized that today's reality IS a hoax.

Will the media seize on this tomorrow? Don't count on it, but let's spam them with emails so that they wake up from their narcotized slumber.

(and isn't it charming that the Bush Regime is restoring honor and dignity to the American people?)

[cprise]

41. As Eloriel and antineocon1 stated

...in a dupe thread:

"Another way to look at this is that this is a way to scare people to do what the US wants. Say, for example, that you place a bid that the King of Jordan will die in six months. This will persuade him to do what you want. If not, then it is likely that he will die."

"It would also be an awesome way for those in this administration
to make money -- investing in futures on things they already KNOW are going to happen.

"And speaking of money, doesn't the Pentagon stand to become a profit center with a scheme like this? Isn't that in itself a little grotesque?"

[belab13]

19. Cheers to NPR which was, as per usual, my first exposure to this amoral

experiment.

[Tom Kitten]

23. I MUST say

this is EVIL FUCKING INSANITY and it is TOTALLY against anything I've ever been taught that is morally DECENT and it shows ME that we have EVIL BEASTS in charge of our nation, our government, our defense, and this shows they have NO MORALITY at all, and if their excuse is "we're defending our country" then I say SCREW YOU you do not defend my country at all you help BRING this SHIT upon us and use it as an excuse to treat citizens as CATTLE or CHATTLE subject to YOUR WHIMS, and SUBJECT to YOUR BETTING on whether or not WE WILL DIE or NOT!

I'm SO Pissed!

[GreatAuntK]

25. I sent a letter about it just now...

to a professor at U of Wis who sometimes writes for the Chicago Tribune.

[canuck]

24. you know, the Economist has beed pissing me off for a while..

its obvious, reading it the last year or so, that Downing St. has them on a short leash.

So, imagine my surprise to see them as partners with the F'ing PENTAGON in this stupid bullshit!!

pffft, "Economist Intelligence Unit"... my ass. -more like a BU of the carlyle group methinks.

This month's was particularly offensive, -they tried desperately to justify the war in Iraq as "still the right decision", using specious, illogical, circular arguments and pseudo-intellectual doubletalk while overlooking well-known facts.
They end the article by praising America's ability to "pick itself up after initial stumbles and sustain a long-term commitment" -they cite how great it is that American troops have been sitting on the border with North Korea for 50 years. -Wow. Great.

Really, it was a pathetic attempt even for the Economist.

[Gloria]

26. So, terrorists can bet on the market, then, in a self-fulfilling act,

commit a terrorist act and make money on the deal, and then finance a new attack...

Sounds like a great boon for terrorism....

These people are INSANE ....on those grounds alone they should be booted.
I'm waiting for the good puppies at CNBC to have orgasms over this one....

[Ozirus]

39. Thats the whole point...

The point it appears to me is to create an environment that is too tempting for terrorists to pass up. A hony pot if you will, a system that one can monitor for suspicious activity therefore creating intelligence that could lead to bigger fish.

Why create a Total Information Awareness database that no citizen will tolerate when you can create a database that terrorists will be falling over themselves to participate in for cheap, possibly for a profit.

- Ozirus -

[Sufi Marmot]

42. Or alternatively....

I was thinking in the other direction - that if the market was open to everyone, terrorists with deep pockets would just skew the market against their real intentions by betting on events/scenarios they have no intention of carrying out and away from events/scenarios they were considering. Such muddying of the waters would likely thwart its stated intention of making better predicitons. Your take is more diabolical, though...

In principle, I actually have no problem with the market if it's done on a THEORETICAL basis with no real money changing hands (although then maybe then nobody useful would participate) - it could be a useful predictive tool, but the prospect of actually profiting from predicted outcomes would certainly encourage undesirable and unethical behavior (sort of like the real stock market...)

-SM

[Sterling]

107. They already did. It was 9-11.

Don't you know about the abnormal trading done on the companies most affected by the attacks?

[berry]

27. Any comments on the website?

There's a link to The Economist! Also to a very hoky Net something site--to my unprofessional eye, this looks very amateurish and ODD. And if you go to the last button (something about how to become a trader) there's a button labeled "Comments" which gives you an e-mail address. Anyone dare to send them comments??

The more I read, the more surreal. :scared:

[leesa]

28. So, was this the model used for the put options purchased prior to 9-11??

Nothing but a crime syndicate.

[glitch]

77. good point nt

[olmy]

29. Staggeringly repugnant...Dubya needs a person to blame

God help us....when you think they can't go lower, there is a new low.

[Guaranteed]

30. Sent form letters

to letters@ and managing-editor@, and sent a personal letter to the executive editor there at the NY Times. If I don't see this sometime real soon in big letters....I'm just gonna leave. I'm sick of this. I'm not sticking around in this place if people are gonna do this kind of stuff and I can't do anything without resorting to violence. Which I refuse to do. Because I, WE, are better than them. And we KNOW it. And so do they.

[RamboLiberal]

31. NYTimes has the story - be a fun day to watch the shit hit the fan

If the media whores can tear themselves away from Kobe Bryant and eulogizing Bob Hope, Tuesday ought to be fun.:beer:

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/29/politics/29TERR.html?hp

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

One of the two senators, Byron L. Dorgan of North Dakota, said the idea seemed so preposterous that he had trouble persuading people it was not a hoax. "Can you imagine," Mr. Dorgan asked, "if another country set up a betting parlor so that people could go in — and is sponsored by the government itself — people could go in and bet on the assassination of an American political figure?"

[Guaranteed]

38. YeeeeeEESSS!! Score!

Tomorrow will be a good day :). Good job folks...I'm sure our letters helped.

[aquart]

46. How would betting prevent an attack?

Unless, of course, we're behind them?

[2cents]

33. Too freaky

But it's no secret this admin would try ANYTHING to make a buck.

By default, would Osama be the Greenspan of the Terror Market?

[ewagner]

36. Been off line for a while

Just found this..............

I'm speechless.........outrage desn't say it...I can't spell flabergasted....

Thank god NYT has the story.

Hope major tv outlets have it............


jesus-tapdancing-christ.........

[RamboLiberal]

51. A couple of the smiling blondes just covered it on CNN

About 6:40-45 AM - sure to be fodder on talk shows later in the day.

[Mal]

37. What's the odds on Bush?

I've got a few bucks spare.

[RamboLiberal]

52. Would they be sick enough to put odds on the Tecumseh curse

on their site? After all weren't they covering something happening to some world leaders on their sick bet site?

[the masses against the classes]

40. my letter to the editor

The widely-held opinion that the United States has involved themselves in the Middle East strictly for its own benefit gathered momentum today:The Pentagon began registering investors for their stock-market style system in which wagers are placed predicting the occurrence of terror attacks, assassinations and other events in the Middle East. The pure depravity of our current administration has reached a new low, as lives in the Middle East have now become betting fodder. (This is to say nothing about the possibility of using "insider information" to orchestrate these types of events for personal profit.) Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., said, "The idea of a federal betting parlor on atrocities and terrorism is ridiculous and it's grotesque." If the United States wants to convince people the world-over that its interests are pure, it had best walk away from obscene and dehumanizing ideas such as this.

[fizzana]

43. When asked to comment Rumsfelt said

"Will there be more terrorist attacks on the U.S. - YOU BETCHA!!!"

[truth2power]

85. He actually said that, BTW - in another context.

On one of those Sunday talk shows, in regard to there being more American deaths in Iraq -

Something like, "Will more American troops die? You bet." I don't have time to look for the exact quote right now. Rumsfeld is disgusting!!

[aquart]

45. The Roman soldiers who gambled for Jesus' clothes = us.

Do you think this indicates an inability to see the people of the Middle East as living human beings instead of just game pieces?

And what, precisely, does the Pentagon plan to do with the profits from manipulating the outcomes?

Buy water for our thirsty soldiers?

[Resistance Is Futile]

47. Beyond depraved

This is not only beyond depraved but also yet another gross misapplication of fanatic ideology in an attempt to solve real-world problems.

The free market can do a lot of things. Predicting the future is not one of them.

[Pert_UK]

48. It's official - you live in the Land of the Fucked......

I'm sorry, but whoever came up with this idea (and anyone who supported it) should be taken outside and beaten unconscious with their own shoes.

What's the rule now - the government can do whatever it likes to anybody, no matter how offensive and repugnant, but if it gets any comeback then it invades your country and kidnaps your family?

Great stuff.....keep it up.......the entire country is going to Hell, I have never, ever heard anything so absurd or offensive in my entire life....

Assuming that Yahoo hasn't made this up or sexed it up beyond recognition of course...

P.

[dArKeR]

49. Betting On Terror - CBS - better late than never

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/07/29/attack/main565574.shtml

[dArKeR]

50. Can a ‘terror futures market’ work? - MSGOP

http://www.msnbc.com/news/945269.asp?0cv=CB10

[salin]

55. Isn't that telling - the title

suddenly reads like a legitimate project with the question... but will it be effective...? Ick.

[union_maid]

53. Just one question

Does the Daily Show know about this yet? Because if it doesn't, it really should.

[RamboLiberal]

54. Daily Show will know - looks like it's a story

CNN - Jack Cafferty has it in his Cafferty files - just showed Dorgan speaking out against it. It's his email question if DefDept should sponsor this.

[Jawja]

56. This is a

Poindexter operation, is it not? Isn't he a convicted criminal?

[Enraged_Ape]

58. Poindexter is a convicted criminal

I was thinking the same thing. They should let Sirhan Sirhan and the Son of Sam killer out of jail to help him run this thing. I don't know why they haven't already.

[gitchel]

59. Poindexter? TIA?

This would be a great way for Poindexter to slide his TIA program in by the back door. If this betting house gets started, the EIGHT MILLION DOLLAR operation (expensive website!) could easily be expanded to analyze other types of information toward the same goal of trying to forcast attacks. I smell a shell game here.

My money is on Poindexter and the TIA.




Jeff

[Enraged_Ape]

57. Darth Vader and the Emperor in Star Wars were not this horrible

I am just slackjawed at this. This is far beyond contemptible. Did Hitler throw lots for the fate of the nations he planned to conquer and the people he planned to kill?

UNFUCKINGBELIEVABLE. If there is not a hell, one would have to be made for these sick bastards.

[DoYouEverWonder]

60. This is front page on this mornings mullet wrapper

Pentagon plan lets people bet on attacks - Gainesville Sun, top right corner. However, their website doesn't have it yet. Must be waiting for approval from their masters at the NYT.

I guess when your the only super power in town, you can do whatever you want and no one can stop you anymore. At least that's what their brand of arrogance believes. Lately, almost everything they do is this kind of in your face, go fuck yourselves, we don't give a shit what anybody thinks stuff. Now that they have a firm grip on power, they no longer have to pretend to be nice people. However, such arrogance will be their downfall and we are witnesses to a very crucial time in American history. What happens next will determine what this great country is really all about.

[Not a robought]

61. This sort of bullshit

starts to make the possibility of MIHOP look REALLY credible.

You can throw away your tinfoil hats now. Sadly, it's for real.

on edit: I would also have to say that if this project is allowed to continue, that my belief in God will be diminished to almost non-existence and the abundance of goodwill I had towards the US will be gone completely.

[farmbo]

62. What are those Neocons smoking now?

...and in business news: Attacks against American Interests are up
4 1/2, while the Israeli Terror index shot up 15%, on the strength of a suicide car bombing in a Tel Aviv market. Meanwhile, profit taking in the Chetchnian markets continued as Chetchnian rebels went into their third straight day of a hostage situation in a Moscow highrise apartment...

:smoke:

[MaineDem]

64. It's just a dream; it's just a dream

Someone PLEASE wake me up soon!!!

I can't believe this. I'm going to call my Senators' offices after 9. Holy Crap!!!

[AlabamaYankee]

65. My outrage meter just broke

I read the news report and Dorgan's response with my jaw actually hanging open - I thought "Jaw dropping news" was only a figure of speech. This is so wrong, and so evil, and so just flat out arrogant stupid that words fail. We have indeed crossed over some kind of threshold - twilight zone, Oz, looking glass,some brand new, freshly minted surreal hell. This country is in deep shit.

[skypilot]

67. If the Democrats...

...start saying,"This isn't an issue we can run on" or some such dismissive nonsense then I'm through. This story should get run into the ground everyday from now until election day.

[robbedvoter]

96. Dems denounced it, it got terminated, Daschle got attacked here

"gratuituous", inefficient and other choice words - on the other thread . So, I guess Dems have to pay for every good deed here. I am tired of having to face enemies in the media and here as well. See ya later.

[mrfrapp]

66. This is too dumb for words n/t

.

[gristy]

68. It's the lead story in today's Minneapolis Star Tribune

They used the NY Times version, which was also on their front page (though below the fold).

There is considerably more information in the NY Times' print version of this story than on the web:

The print version reports that the web site for this sick little endeavor was altered yesterday "so that potential events to be considered by the market that were visible earlier in the day at the home page at www.policyanalysismarket.org could no longer be seen."

The print version reports that a statement from the Defense Department, in attempting to justify the use of a futures market in terror, states "Futures markets have proven themselves to be good at predicting such things as elections results; they are often better than expert opinions."

Well, well, well.

on edit: This is a f***ing HUGE story. The program will be gone in days. Resignations will be called for.

[MountainLaurel]

69. OMG

I have nothing intelligent to contribute, but WTF were they thinking?? And why wasn't anyone with half a clue (Sam Donaldson mentioned on a local radio show this a.m. that Torie Clark of the gawd-awful wardrobe may very well have tried) to convince DOD what an absolutely WRONG idea this is.

Now, why is it that the rest of the world wants the U.S. to disappear, preferably with lots of pain and suffering?

:wow:

On edit: I wonder if Bill Bennett will be named to lead this effort?

[skypilot]

71. Does anyone have the stomach to...

...go over to FreeRepublic and see what they have to say about this mess?
They must be very proud?

[Kitsune]

84. They don't seem to like it much either.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/954585/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/954513/posts

They seem to be rather split on the issue...some of them are screaming that Daschle blew the cover off of a great informant program, some of them ranted about the efficiency of the market, but for the most part I think they're actually as disgusted as we are about this incredibly fucking stupid idea.

[Drifter]

70. If a terrorist bets on an attack ...

that they are involved in, do you think the terrorist should benned from the Terrorist Hall of Fame for life ?

Cheers
Drifter

[leesa]

100. Good one! How bout if A member of the Crime Family bets on an

act of terrorism they are involved in?

[dad]

104. .

Wouldn't that be insider trading?

[Nihil]

105. "Sorry, that's classified information"

No, just "matters of national security" so it never sees the light
of day ...

[Nihil]

72. Surreal or what?

BBC are carrying this now:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3106559.stm

Re .0

> "Can you imagine if another country set up a betting parlor so that
> people could go in ... and bet on the assassination of an American
> political figure...

Betcha your door would be broken down PDQ and you'd spend a lot of
time talking to the interrogation crews.

This reminds me of the Oracle in John Brunner's "Shockwave Rider".
Weird how other things from that book also resonate these days.

(Sorry for any deja vu but I started to post in another thread then
had a glitch and can't locate the thread again ... don't know if it
made it or partial or nothing.)

Nihil

[skypilot]

74. Can we place bets on...

...snarky, skanky, blonde "pundits" and obnoxious tabloid TV and radio talk show hosts?

[Nihil]

80. Doubt it - they're small fry and far too easily manipulated

At the moment, the gamblers - sorry, "traders" - are restricted to
a small number (1000?) of invited punters. They will be looking at
major events (oil, assassinations) rather than personal vendettas.
(Hmm ... possible redundancy there).

Whilst most bookmakers will offer odds on anything you care to waste
your money on, I suspect the initial set of topics will be very
carefully chosen ... the challenge will be to spot the major indicator
amongst the general noise (like the infamous "put" options out of all
of the trades in those two days). The winners will either get very
rich or very dead. The losers will get poorer. The innocent
bystanders will get very poor and very dead. SNAFU.


Nihil

PS:
> snarky, skanky, blonde "pundits"
I hope you weren't referring to me? (I'm not blonde :-))

[cprise]

91. Probably more redundancy than you think.

PAM would eventually either grow in size and scope, or serve as inspiration, a model, for new trading outfits outside the Pentagon.

Or both.

[Minstrel Boy]

73. In other words,

it's the play-at-home version of the insider trading on 9/11.

:mad:

[gristy]

75. that's right - and welcome

to DU!!!!!!:hi:

[Lars39]

76. Yes!!! That's what immediately came to mind!!!

It worked, they got away with it, now let's make it official!
:mad: :tinfoilhat:

[mumon]

78. This is why they'll be ANOTHER terrorist attack!

People have looked at markets for a LONG time, and y'know what they found?

They're not friggin' predictable, except when they're rigged. (The so-called myth of an "efficient market" wherein all information is available to all investors is made a myth by the fact that insider trading happens, and this can be verified statistically.)

So you have 2 choices:

1. Either the scumbags know this, and it's an attempt to fleece the Avacor/gold-bug set.

OR

2. They are too stoooopid and blinded by their ideology.

Either way, it means LESS resources are going to actually, uh, figure out terrorist threats.

Besides, I'd rather bet that the Nazis in charge would oust Hugo Chavez or Lula...

[MaineDem]

79. I called my Senators

Snowe's office (an 800 call, by the way) was great. Although she hasn't yet come out with a statement, her office was aware of the issue and hope to get something from her shortly.

Susan Collins' office, on the other hand, was rude and inept. The person I spoke with (an intern) had no clue what I was talking about and simply said the Senator was on the floor so nothing was available from her. I asked to speak with an LA but I was told that since this was the last week of the session all the LAs were busy. Too busy for a constituent I guess.

I'm so pissed off I could spit!

Edited to add: I forgot to say that the phone-answerer at Snowe's office said it wasn't an Administration idea; it came from the lower echelons of the Pentagon! WHAT???

[Hell Hath No Fury]

81. I think my brain just exploded...

I just woke up and found this story -- had to give myself a shake to make sure I was really awake.

So now I think we can see why there never has been an investigation into the suspect trading pre-9/11.

What if we set up our OWN trading site, but had our own administration and country listed? How long do you think it would take for us to be gitmoed?

Fuckers. Insane fuckers.

[hippywife]

82. Guess this is what you can expect...

...when you let unrepented criminals continue to operate>

<snip>

DARPA has received strong criticism from Congress for its Terrorism Information Awareness program, a computerized surveillance program that has raised privacy concerns. Wyden said the Policy Analysis Market is under retired Adm. John Poindexter, the head of the Terrorism Information Awareness program and, in the 1980s, a key figure in the Iran-Contra scandal.

[LoneStarLiberal]

86. Need To Read The Fine Print

Would this be a bad idea if it were thrown open to everyone? You bet it would be a bad idea!

But the fact is that it isn't open to everyone. Osama bin Laden couldn't log on from the Spin Boldok or Peshawar or wherever he is hanging out these days and inflate futures on a terrorist attack.

This is an aggregation tool for our National Intelligence Community that badly needs help as we all know by now. The only people who can sign up for this are "Middle East experts" from outside of the government, i.e. the people who might be able to contribute something useful to those inside the Beltway who need the help!

This market is an aggregation tool for those people. By monitoring the increases and decreases in prices for certain event-linked futures, the intelligence weenies can see if the non-intelligence experts think something is going to happen and then they can go find out why. It would be too time consuming and convoluted to go and try to talk to 10,000 experts individually; but by aggregating their beliefs into a futures market, you can have all that information in a generalized form almost immediately.

People who work with this kind of material (economists, specifically public choicers) aren't always the most socially gifted nor are they the greatest about explaining things. If there had been better explaination about this, we wouldn't be in this uproar.

[cprise]

89. The flip side is that capital then creates opportunities

...for terrorism. Anyone can become an asassin, and the ultra-rich could field enough money to be "lost on the market" on occasion against targets of interest. It creates an instant money-culture where the rich entice people to become stakeholders in the development of violence.

Buying politicians with campaign contributions yielded very high returns for the rich. In the face of new campaign-finance restrictions, this may what they are willing to resort to as a motivational tool to "take care of business".

[cprise]

90. "if terrorists were to bet on their own attack"

Dorgan described the market as “unbelievably stupid.”
Among other things, the senators say they’re concerned that terrorists could place bets on the site — and then profit from the accurate prediction of attacks that they carry out. DARPA had promised investors that it wouldn’t be able to identify individuals who signed up for a trading account.
But Polk said that — if terrorists were to bet on their own attack — that would have created exactly the kind of warning signal the Policy Analysis Market is designed to highlight.
http://www.msnbc.com/news/945269.asp?0cv=CB10&cp1=1


But what if the bettors are Richard Scaiffe and Pat Robertson? Will there be a "warning signal" then?

[tedzbear]

94. YOU need to read the fine print, smartypants.

The way I read it, this market IS open to anonymous bidders. That is precisely how and why it is supposed to work. The bids have to be made by everyone and anyone or else the market won't reflect the real world. It wouldn't make sense otherwise.

What's to keep terrorists from betting and then blowing up something to collect their winnings???
Didn't any of your rocket scientists think of THAT???
:P

[LoneStarLiberal]

98. Got My Readings Confuddled

"PAM is intended to have a globally distributed population of traders. Individuals interested in the Middle East and in the involvement of the United States with the countries of the Middle East are welcome to register as PAM traders. Individuals who are interested in the use of market processes to manage risk are also welcome to participate in PAM. Whatever a prospective trader’s interest in PAM, involvement in this group prediction process should prove engaging and may prove profitable.

Trader registration will open on August 1, 2003 and will be accessed exclusively through this web site. There will be three steps to the trader registration process:

1.Acceptance of various terms governing access to and use of PAM, the principal of which is recognition that PAM is a prototype and that the registrant is agreeing to participate in the test of this prototype.


2.Selection of a username and password by the registrant.


3.Deposit of funds into the registrant’s PAM trading account.
On-line training will begin for registered traders on September 1, 2003. Live trading will begin on October 1, 2003.

As a means of ensuring the smooth and efficient start of live operations, registration will be limited initially to 1,000 traders. As system operations are tuned to the trading load, this limit will be increased. By January 1, 2004, the limit will be raised to at least 10,000 traders."
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I could have SWORN that I read something about experts-only selection on their website this morning. I archived all the HTML from their site so I could go back and look at it again as I figured it would be taken down.

Sorry for the boo-boo!

[leesa]

101. Uh huh...now try looking at it for what it really is, just

one more cash venture for the Bush Crime Family. They have no interest in catching terrorists, terrorists are their business partners...OBL, Saddam, the Saudi Royals, the Liberian pres, etc...get real! BUSH wants to inflate futures on a terrorist attacks because they control them.

[KoKo]

87. Here's the BBC Report: This scheme had ties to econmic group in London!

Pentagon axes online terror bets
The Pentagon has abandoned plans to set up an online trading
market to help predict terrorist attacks.

Senator John Warner, chairman of the Senate Armed Services
Committee, said he had spoken by telephone to the programme's
director "and we mutually agreed that this thing should be stopped".

Under the plan, bets could have been made about future terrorist
attacks, conflicts, and assassination attempts.

But the proposal ran into fierce
opposition in the US Congress.

(SNIP)_
Market vision

The idea was to try to improve the prediction and prevention of events
by using the expertise of the open market instead of relying only on
government agencies.

The US Defence Department had compared the proposed market to
those predicting the price of petroleum, the results of elections and even
the demand for cinema tickets.

"Research indicates that markets are extremely efficient, effective and
timely aggregators of dispersed and even hidden information," it said in
a statement earlier.

The proposed scheme - called the Policy Analysis Market (PAM) - was
set up by a Pentagon unit known as the Defence Advanced Research
Projects Unit.

The market would have worked by getting traders to deposit money in
an account and using that to buy and sell contracts. They would have
made their money if a particular event actually happened.

Invitations had gone out online for an initial 1,000 traders to register on
1 August and the programme had been designed to start in October.

One of the organisations which provided data for the project was the
Economist Intelligence Unit in London.

Speaking before the plan was abandoned, its Director of Risk Services,
Merli Baroudi, told BBC News Online: "It is trying to gather insights of
people in a cost effective way.

"Markets have done this in economics for some time and the Iowa
Electronic Markets does it for US presidential elections, so it is not really
novel." http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3106559.stm

[sam sarrha]

88. would have been easy insider money!!!!!!!!!

[Nay]

92. This was front-page news in the Richmond VA Times-Dispatch,

a right-wing mullet-wrapper. Hopefully the conservatives in this town will be outraged, but who knows.

This is beyond despicable. I have heard that they have cancelled the idea after today's flap over it, but you know darn well they are flying trial balloons for all this shit, and also trying to divert attention from Bush's Saudi and WMD problems with this story.

[cprise]

97. Covert copies of PAM?

What is the likelyhood that people will setup speakeasy, underground versions of this?

[grasswire]

95. Maybe it's time to look...

....to see who invested in presidential election futures in that Iowa project.

[union_maid]

99. I will never forget...

Mary Matalin's absolute certainty that the FL exit polls that had Gore as the winner were wrong. It was a very weird reaction even before the going got really weird.

[tedzbear]

93. Poindexter and Tether must resign!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Those idiots better be out by tomorrow's morning paper! I emailed my senators and * giving them a piece of my mind.

This is the stupidest thing I've EVER heard of. If this is the caliber of our protectors, no wonder 9-11 happened!

[gristy]

102. Yes, Poindexter should be resigned immediately

I called my senators on this this morning, and will again tomorrow. On the News Hour tonight, their report on this closed with the comment that it was as yet unclear if there would be any firings or resignations over this.

Personally, I hope to help make it very clear that there will be.

Se this WH link for a fun discussion between Helen Thomas and Ari Fleischer last year about p*:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/02/20020225-16.html

[peacetalksforall]

103. I could have sworn that I heard Poindexter had resigned...

came out of NPR this afternoon. No?

We should have the names of everyone on the 'creativity' team. Can you imagine Wolfie referring to the creativity of these imbeciles?

Somehow, this has something to do with the 9-11 put options ... somehow ...there is more to come. Are they are trying to soften the reality of the put options by providing the rationale for a system such as this ... is something else going to break to connect the two? It would make sense that the people involved in the pre 9-11 put options are the same people on this if this (were only) Hollywood script writers at work.

The right wing media is going to try to close this down fast. We can't even get mileage out of the black box voting because there is one startling announcement every day? Arsenic in the water was like a tea party compared to each day or news. Yes, things are picking up.