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Robbien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 12:14 AM
Original message
Are Wall Street speculators driving up gasoline prices?
Source: McClatchy

By KEVIN G. HALL
McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON -- Oil and gasoline prices are rising fast as Memorial Day weekend approaches, but not because supplies are tight or demand is high.

U.S. crude oil inventories are at their highest levels in almost two decades, and demand has fallen to a 10-year low, but crude oil prices have climbed more than 70 percent since mid-January to a six-month high of $62.04 on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, although refiners are operating at less than 85 percent of capacity, leaving them plenty of room to churn out more gasoline if demand rises during the summer driving season, the price of gasoline at the pump has climbed 28 cents a gallon from a month earlier to $2.33.

This time, Wall Street speculators - some of them recipients of billions of dollars in taxpayers' bailout money - may be to blame.

Big Wall Street banks such as Goldman Sachs & Co., Morgan Stanley and others are able to sidestep the regulations that limit investments in commodities such as oil, and they're investing on behalf of pension funds, endowments, hedge funds and other big institutional investors, in part as a hedge against rising inflation.

Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/business/nation/story/1057972.html




Nice to see McClatchy Newspapers getting out there fast with the word that speculation is driving up pump prices before CNBC and the others start their "supply and demand" propaganda spiels.
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WCGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 12:21 AM
Response to Original message
1. All I know is last year, when Oil was hovering in a range between
135-145 per barrel, we were paying about 4.25 for a gallon of gas.

This year, with oil trading in a range between 55-65 dollars, we are paying upwards of 2.40 per gallon.

It doesn't fit. Especially since there is a surplus of oil sloshing around the globe due to the dire economic realities.

So yea, I agree that speculators are indeed playing with the free market.
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HowHasItComeToThis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 12:22 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Probably you are right
Edited on Thu May-21-09 12:24 AM by HowHasItComeToThis
IT IS ABOUT HOW SO FEW CAN CAUSE SO MUCH PAIN TO SO MANY.

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SammyWinstonJack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 07:49 AM
Response to Reply #2
40. Certainly nothing new about that. Same as it's always been.
x(
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Baby Snooks Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 08:01 AM
Response to Reply #2
46. They don't see it that way...
They see it only as the ability to make profit. And so far, despite assurances and even some legislation, there is absolutely nothing to stop them. So "what the market will bear" will become the standard once more. They will use increased consumption, by the way, as basis to "hedge" the oil futures. Something everyone should remember when they make the third trip to the grocery store to pick up what they forgot.

I suspect you will see oil at $70 by Memorial Day and then $90 by the end of June.

The hedge fund managers have to recoup their losses, you know, and what better way than with oil?

And Obama and Congress will merely tell us we need to conserve. Just watch.
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defendandprotect Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 12:25 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. But the point of resistance should be Congress . . . and as gas prices rise ....
they'll be going off on holiday --

And when they return, they may still be ignoring this --

I don't think it would be happening if "speculators" thought they'd

be cooled out by Congress -- ???!!!
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dotymed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 10:25 AM
Response to Reply #4
64. WE ARE THE MAJORITY
We elected Democrats to stop the pilfering, especially from
those who can least afford it. Speculators have been driving
up gas prices for at least the last eight years. All of the
politicians are aware of it. When Dick Cheney let the Energy
companies set our energy policies, we were in a tizzy. We
elected Democrats for "Change." Price fixing is
illegal and one statement from President Obama saying that he
will have his justice department investigate the speculators,
and we will see gas prices plunge, as the Oil companies try to
cover their asses. If the wealthy were being affected, we
would,undoubtedly, see this theft rectified quickly. We just
don't have enough money to get their attention. Too bad we
don't have a real main stream media that investigates and
rectifies injustices. Civil Disobedience and running a VIABLE
third party candidate is our best hope. Dennis Kucinich or
Bernie Saunders would be natural picks. We HAVE to DEMAND
publicly financed elections. That is the only way a
non-millionaire can be elected.
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defendandprotect Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 01:20 PM
Response to Reply #64
72. the wealthy have lobbyists and leverage over Congress/Democratic Party . . .
unfortunately we don't --!

In fact, I've been suggesting that the public get together and hire

Erin Brockovich's law firm and some lobbyists!!!

The problem is the public isn't organized -- !!!

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FiveGoodMen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #64
87. "We elected Democrats to stop the pilfering" ... only to find that they were in on it too
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pam4water Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 12:36 AM
Response to Reply #1
7. It started to drop when the Enron loop hole was closed. But there hasn't been any real
Edited on Thu May-21-09 12:38 AM by pam4water
follow up regulation, so I think the 'traders' decided no one is really going to regulate them again so it back to price gouging.
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Baby Snooks Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 08:09 AM
Response to Reply #7
48. The loophole probaby has a loophole...
Edited on Thu May-21-09 08:10 AM by Baby Snooks
Congress rarely passes a "always applies to all" bill and often the final bill differs from the previously published bill and most people don't follow up. Many members of Congress don't either. They assume it's the same bill. So they pass it. They don't have time to read the fine print. Particularly when a bill is 500 pages long. And if someone catches it after the fact, the sponsors or co-sponsors go "ooops" and apologize. They assumed everyone knew that paragraph was changed.

That's how Starkist was almost excluded from the minimum wage law. Madame Speaker blamed it on the representative from American Samoa or Guam or wherever Starkist moved their canning operations to avoid the minimum wage law to begin with. Never mind the representative couldn't submit bills or vote on bills. But, well, it sounded good. And everyone believed her. Everyone still does. Whatever she says.
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DaLittle Kitty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 09:35 AM
Response to Reply #7
62. Obama Will NOT Touch These Assholes! Wall St. and BIG OIL Conspire To Shaft Working Americans!
My friend John Russell Predicts that gas prices will rise to a dollar to 2 dollars over the current price up until August of 20010 then will drop precipitously just in time for the election.

:THINK:TO PROTECT INCUMBENTS FROM BOTH PARTIES IN WHOM the "corporation" has made an "INVESTMENT."

This will be the THIRD cycle in a row that this situation has repeated. Right now is BIG PROFIT time!

www.johnrussellforcongress.com
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KillCapitalism Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-22-09 01:07 AM
Response to Reply #62
97. I agree, I thought this shit would end when Bush left.
I'm worried we'll see $4+/gal. this summer & that will decimate the economy. Sometimes I think we were duped by Obama, in some instances he is to the right of Bush/Cheney.
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droidamus2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 07:26 AM
Response to Reply #1
34. This is why
When people talk about the 'free market' that is an ideal that is never reached and this is a good example why. Pure supply and demand theory makes some suppositions about availability of resources and new producers entering the market and purchasers making the decision that is best for them (what about advertising that leads them to believe something is good for them like oh I don't know the Republican Party?) that just don't always happen in real life. When I took an economics class they didn't even talk about the effect the market and speculators would have on pricing. Sure if when prices reach a certain level new producers would come into the market and thus force prices down in theory that would work, but what are the odds of any new producer of oil and gas coming into the picture? Would the resources, not only raw but the land to build refineries and the money to do it, be available? In most industries do the established corporations work to make sure on a limited number of companies are in the business? Look how often an up and coming company is bought by the established corporations in their business. It is a form of what I believe is called an oligopoly that is not a one company monopoly but control of an industry by just a few companies. Face it American Capitalism is really just a fancy way to say survival of the fittest where we don't fight with clubs or guns we just fight with wealth and lawyers.
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sofa king Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 03:41 PM
Response to Reply #34
80. Somewhere I read that Capitalism never takes greed into account.
Apparently, when unnecessary profit taking is included in the theoretical models they, like our economies, fall apart.

At least that's what I read in a sociology book somewhere. I'm sure things have changed since.
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valerief Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 04:58 PM
Response to Reply #80
86. Capitalism IS greed. nt
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napi21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 12:23 AM
Response to Original message
3. I don't know who's doing it, but they do it every summer!
It's been blamed on the different summer blend, maintenance on tat the refineries, and every other damn thing thay can say that might make sense. I think it's nothing but more profits for the oil co's.
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jaysunb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 12:29 AM
Response to Original message
5. April showers bring May flowers, May flowers
bring higher gas prices.

Just another head fake.....
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Orrex Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 12:32 AM
Response to Original message
6. As I understand it, if oil prices go up, gas prices go up. If oil prices go down, gas prices go up.
And if oil prices remain the same, then gas prices go up.


Pretty simple, all in all.
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Hawkowl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 01:06 AM
Response to Original message
8. No shit.
Supply and demand my ass. It seems the American public is finally getting the glimmer of a fucking clue.
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sutz12 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 01:35 AM
Response to Original message
9. Probably, again...
I remember the gas lines of the 70's. That's what struck me about last summer's price hikes. No gas lines. There was plenty of gas, just high prices. Where were the shortages?

All the 'free traders' and capitalists can pound sand. It was speculation that drove up prices last year, and it wouldn't surprise me to see it again.
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orleans Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 03:04 AM
Response to Original message
10. $2.33??? i don't think so! try $2.60!
when is congress going to kick these gamblers asses once and for all??
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WriteDown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 08:37 AM
Response to Reply #10
53. Depends..
2.21 this morning in Dallas.
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SeattleGirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 03:14 AM
Response to Original message
11. I paid $2.77 for mid-grade on Monday.
That was up about .30 a gallon from what I paid last week.

First thing I thought was, the speculators are at it again.

Assholes.

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AngryOldDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 07:38 AM
Response to Reply #11
38. Prices here went up 10 cents in one day.
$2.45/gal. I'm expecting to see $2.50 by the end of the weekend, or (most likely) higher.

I've been keeping my gas slips since the first of the year just out of curiosity, and this last time I filled up has been the most I've paid so far this year. And I'm glad I gassed up when I did -- I'd be paying 15 cents more had I waited until today.

Whenever I drive past corners that have two or more gas stations, and the prices are all the same, I wonder why free market parameters don't work in the world of oil, and why somehow it's not considered collusion. Just ramblings of a confused and naive mind, who thinks it's bullshit that the consumer is constantly at the mercy of a handful of speculators.
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dotymed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 10:41 AM
Response to Reply #38
65. LAST MONTH
The cashier at the gas station, told me to ALWAYS buy my gas
before Thursday. She said that all of the price hikes happen
on Thursday. Apparently so they can profit more from the
increased weekend driving. Sometimes, they even go down on
Monday, just to rise again on Thursday. If this not price
gouging......
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Mnemosyne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 11:40 AM
Response to Reply #65
71. In my area they are raised on Tues. and Thurs. I noticed something strange yesterday,
gas across the state line, in NY, was $2.50 and diesel was at $2.43. First I've seen it lower than gas since Katrina.

Welcome to DU, dotymed! :hi:
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northzax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 02:54 PM
Response to Reply #65
78. or it's when they get their deliveries
and retail rices adjust to the new wholesale price?
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Necon-Be-Gone Donating Member (85 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 03:17 AM
Response to Original message
12. Energy Trading Markets still unregulated?
Give Congress a break. They are working on important stuff, like letting us carry fire arms into National Parks, that we can't afford to drive to.
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SammyWinstonJack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 07:52 AM
Response to Reply #12
41. .
:thumbsup:
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w4rma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 03:21 AM
Response to Original message
13. Absolutely. (nt)
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 03:42 AM
Response to Original message
14. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
WCGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 04:59 AM
Response to Reply #14
16. I gather that you are looking at a pure S&D curve in order to lay out your
scenario. That's fine, I guess, but the real world doesn't go that way. Anyone who thinks the behavior of consumers is reckoned into the magic equilibrium price is not facing the truth. It is basically a closed market with the supplier manipulating supply, the middlemen, speculators, are betting on incremental day by day trades in order to make their money and the consumer has absolutely little to no effect on the behavior of those operating on the other side of the equation.

Consumers have no real impact on how the energy market works.

Supply is up now, running faster than demand so why is the pit price going up? Conventional wisdom would dictate that prices would fall in that scenario.

There are no free markets just a bunch of day traders shaving of bits of profit adding just another step between the producer and the consumer.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #16
89. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
Vinnie From Indy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 06:16 AM
Response to Reply #14
25. LOL! - You are a sucker's sucker!
Sure, your premise would make sense in a fair, honest and transparent market. That is not what we have in America. The fact is that we have a rigged game in regard to speculating in the energy market. Firstly, the giant Wall Street banks can EASILY manipulate the opaque, unregulated energy market as it is today. Secondly, the game is rigged so that the MOST fundamental aspect of speculating in a market is ABSENT - there is NO RISK OF FAILURE. These Wall Street banks have no downside. Price goes up - they win! Price goes down - the get bailed out and they win!

The reality is that certain elite Wall Street folks have gamed the system and it is no longer functioning fairly. In short, these guys are STEALING so much money it makes the Mafia look like children with a lemonade stand in comparison.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 06:45 AM
Response to Reply #14
26. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
dotymed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 10:49 AM
Response to Reply #14
69. Brian
What an OBVIOUSLY BIASED post. For one thing, Speculators make
the reality by raising or lowering the prices.That is when
they make their cash. They "speculate" on higher
prices, make it so, and then immediately PROFIT from it along
with their corporate (BIG OIL) sponsored clients. Your comment
was so self serving and transparent. Brian says : PROFIT
BEFORE PEOPLE......ALWAYS
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amandabeech Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 01:57 PM
Response to Reply #14
76. In the U.S., very little oil is used to generate electricity.
Most of the oil used is in the form of diesel for peak demand and emergency generation. You can cross keeping the grid going from your list.

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dmosh42 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 03:59 AM
Response to Original message
15. They're doing it with 'our' TARP money! n/t
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SammyWinstonJack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 07:54 AM
Response to Reply #15
42. And 'THANK GOD IT PASSED!'
:silly:
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truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-23-09 03:27 PM
Response to Reply #42
103. Why! We could have easily put the "Too big too fail" entities
Edited on Sat May-23-09 03:28 PM by truedelphi
Into receivorship and handled the mess that way.

Nine trillion bucks has leaked over to Wall Street from Main Street, and few people that I know think that any of it will trickle dow to them.

But I guess some other people just cannot smell what "trickle down" always ends up smelling like.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 05:12 AM
Response to Original message
17. Like the credit card companies, banks, insurance industry etc
We have the best Congress money can't buy, anyone thinking congress will really act on this problem look at a moderate democrats campaign finance report.
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From The Ashes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 05:20 AM
Response to Original message
18. Answer:
do bears sh*t in the woods? The answer to both questions is YES.

bastards x(
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 05:23 AM
Response to Original message
19. Or...could the gas co.s be gouging ?
Maybe some of both? Greedy bastards, all.

Julie
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mikehiggins Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 05:40 AM
Response to Original message
20. I am shocked! Shocked I tell you! n/t
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SeeHopeWin Donating Member (649 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 05:40 AM
Response to Original message
21. Things are back to normal on Wall Street, so YES YES, they are!
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liberal N proud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 05:45 AM
Response to Original message
22. Coupled with the usual bullshit about formula change over
Every fucking year since bu$h took office, we have been hit with this price spike at the holiday travel season and the formula changeover. I don't ever remember these spikes before the bu$h regime took over.

Now it is just considered the norm.

And yes, the speculators are trying to get that price right back up there and no it will not do anything to expedite the transition of America to more fuel efficient vehicles. Too many assholes in this country like the Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn, who think it is Americans right to drive gas hogs. See this Daily Show segment...

http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=228029&title=auto-neurotic-gas-fixation
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nc4bo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 05:47 AM
Response to Original message
23. Where's the change again?
And I'm not saying that I don't appreciate having Barack Obama as our 44th President. He's our country's best chance to change the way we've been doing things.

He and We need to work harder to put an end to the harmful business practices of greedy corporations.





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AndyA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 07:25 AM
Response to Reply #23
33. Maybe that change is hiding under the Oval Office furniture with those
WMDs that Bush never found.

Someday, the American people are going to realize who's doing the screwing and they'll throw some of these corrupt bums in Congress out!
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Old Hob Donating Member (296 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-22-09 01:50 AM
Response to Reply #23
98. we gave it all to the bankers.
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Enthusiast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 06:12 AM
Response to Original message
24. This time? They were to blame last time.
There was no actual shortage of gasoline supplies when oil went to $147 a barrel.
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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 08:23 AM
Response to Reply #24
49. Actually in the Summer of 2008, inventory of oil and gasoline were low
Inventories of both started to go up in August (Some said July) 2008, do to the sheer lack of demand do to the first decline in oil usage ever (I am ignoring the very marginal drop in demand in 2007, less then 1% over 2006). The recession that kicked in about the same time (and probably caused by the high price of Oil) was the major factor in the increase in inventories. Inventories that have NOT gone done since the Summer of 2008.

Thus while current demand was being meet in the Spring and Summer of 2008 (Thus no actual Shortage at the pump) this was maintained by drawing down the oil and gasoline held in stock. As oil stock became low in the spring of 2008 that is when the speculators stepped into the market and drove the price up. In a tight market, speculators can do that. The problem TODAY is we do NOT have a tight market, oil stocks are at the highest levels (Tankers and being taken out of shipping oil and being used for storage of oil). The price should be dropping not increasing.

Now, the traditional explanation is that we are just finishing the annual shift from making home heating oil to gasoline. Memorial Day is the traditional time for the highest price for gasoline in the US, and has been since the 1950s (Through in the 1950s we are only talking about a penny or two increase at the time of Memorial day).

Now, the price should start to drop next week, that is the tradition (But the level of increase is excessive given the levels of oils stocks). The real question is why are the speculators into gasoline and oil? The price is doom to drop UNLESS SOMETHING IS UP THAT WE DO NOT KNOW ABOUT. Of the top ten oil exporters, only five can be considered "stable" and two of them the US has made threats to (Iran and Venezuela). Norway, Russia and Canada are stable, no internal threat to the central Government, and change over of leadership have incurred in the recent past with out to much problems (In the case of Russia from Yeltsin to Putin).

The problem is the Remaining Five countries are NOT stable, starting with the #1 exporter, Saudi Arabia. The House of Saud is aging, it is about to go from the sons of King Saud I, to his Grandsons (King Saud died in 1952). In hereditary governments like Arabia that is when the knives come out (Brothers are less likely to want to kill each other then cousins, thus it is when grandsons take over you have problems). The rest of the Persian Gulf (Excepting Iran) will be affected, including Iraq. Nigeria, the leading non-Persian Gulf, non Venezuela, non Norway, exporter is heading for Civil War (again). What are the speculators thinking? Based on what? Is something up? or is it mere speculation something is up, only time will tell.
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amandabeech Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 01:49 PM
Response to Reply #49
74. Mexico is still an exporter, although Canterell is on its last legs.
We are by far their chief market.

I'd rate them as less stable than Canada and Norway, but more stable than Nigeria.

Nonetheless, our National Guard is being deployed to our border with Mexico, we recently sent Mexico a considerable amount of military and law enforcement technology with advisers and technicians, their last election was probably tainted and drug gangs are an enormous problem.

I'd say that if there's something going of which we here in the U.S. are not aware, it's Mexico.

If Mexico blew up, that's .7 to 1 million barrels less oil for us, or up to 5% of our supply.

Certainly we could make that up on the spot market within a reasonable amount of time considering that so much oil is stored in tankers, but if Mexico went into civil war, we could eventually see shortages or high prices here. Problems in Nigeria would only exacerbate the problem.
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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 04:09 PM
Response to Reply #74
82. That is a good guess, Mexico is in a pre-revolutionary stage
The old Government, where the President picked his successor died over ten years ago (Fox's election was just a signal the system had already died). With declining oil production AND declining oil prices, and rampant corruption, Mexico is just steps away from Revolution (The Narco Wars going on in Mexico right now, is an example of how the Corruption has made the whole country unstable, a stable government with popular support would NEVER have left the Gangs to get so powerful that something like the Narco hangs would occur let alone break out in fighting). NAFTA and its affect on Corn prices in Mexico did not help the Rural peasants (Who are flooding into the US to look for work do to the low price for corn since the 2000). This movement have made the Rural Areas even more restless, not a good sign given it was the peasants of Mexico that started the War of Independence and the 1912 Revolution.

Remember the price increase was do to the fact oil exports fell less then 5% greater the oil imports (About 5% of oil exports are "lost" between being exported and imported, I suspect it is mostly used by the US overseas, the US does NOT Count them as US imports and the country where the US base is does NOT count them as an import, and thus "Lost" between being exported and being imported). If Mexico goes to Zero Exports for any reason, world wide exports over imports will again drop below 5% and inventories will start to be drained to make up the difference. Mexico is a much bigger player then Nigeria. The world can adjust to a Nigeria Cut off, a Mexican Cut off, especially in the US, would be a disaster.
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amandabeech Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-22-09 12:41 PM
Response to Reply #82
100. Excellent points about the corn and the export model.
I believe Rapier developed that model, which I find too frightening to contemplate.

Corn is going up again due to low world-wide reserves of grain generally, but perhaps it is too late for the Mexicans to go home. How much small holder farm land was subject to forced sale when corn prices in Mexico dropped?

The factor to consider in U.S. gasoline prices if Mexico were to move to a chaotic revolutionary situation would be fear and uncertainty. Even if the Mexican government could keep control of the oil fields (with our open or clandestine help) and export some, it is possible that the U.S. internal prices would rise anyway.

I look on Mexico with great trepidation and great sorrow for her people.

I hope that we will not end up getting involved heavily in their internal affairs because we want the oil and our corporations want to secure their manufacturing facilities.

Oil was a huge motive in invading Iraq, IMHO, and I don't want a repeat performance on our border.
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jschurchin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 06:48 AM
Response to Original message
27. Yep.
There isn't any demand. So there isn't any other reason.
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groovedaddy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 06:49 AM
Response to Original message
28. Regulate NOW!!! n.t
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Lint Head Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 07:14 AM
Response to Original message
29. We are being speculated to death.
These pricks are making money off of the lives of the middle class and poor that struggle every day to keep their heads above water.
:dem:
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Wednesdays Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 07:18 AM
Response to Original message
30. K&R
:kick:
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INdemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 07:23 AM
Response to Original message
31. I honestly believed that once we got rid of those two oil men that this
gouging would be stopped...I guess I was naive in thinking that President Obama would be able to stop this..Its illegal price fixing and all the campaign talk about stopping this was just talk....I guess President Obama found out that oil companies are just too powerful and nothing can be done..
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Raster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 07:35 AM
Response to Reply #31
36. The puppet administrations come and go, but the Texas Petroleum Mafia goes on forever.
Edited on Thu May-21-09 07:36 AM by Raster
Immortal personhood, ya know.

Prices for these two items are rigidly fixed and controlled: diamonds and petroleum. The price of both to the public would drop considerably if final, public price were truly tied to "cost to produce" and "supply and demand." When you own/control the wells/mines, the infrastructure to bring the raw product to the surface, the refineries/cutting operations and then the distribution channels, you dictate the price you want. The British Crown/South Africa/Commonwealth has its DeBeers, we have our Exxon.

Spectators for both commodities are just ridin' the wave. Just another opportunity for the rich and privileged to help themselves to a bit more of YOUR hard-earned money.
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One_Life_To_Give Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 07:25 AM
Response to Original message
32. Is the Pope Catholic? nt
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Historic NY Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 07:34 AM
Response to Original message
35. Were being playing like violins, as usual. Use less pay more.
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pjt7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 07:37 AM
Response to Reply #35
37. Let's get some Congressman & Senators
speaking out on this. We don't need to be raped again this summer.
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AngryOldDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 07:43 AM
Response to Original message
39. Now the explanation is unrest in Nigeria is to blame.
Shell having to pull employees, curtail production, etc.

Schmo talking to our girl in Lagos, Erin Burnett, right now on MSNBC.
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SammyWinstonJack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 07:59 AM
Response to Reply #39
44. Any excuse will work, or so they think.
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workinclasszero Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 07:55 AM
Response to Original message
43. Does a bear shit in the woods?
Hey those bloody pirate capitalist raiders are still screwing the American public...surprise!

This is the capitalism that is celebrated on Faux "news" and Hate radio 24/7. How do you like it now Mr and Mrs America? Are you longing for a return to 4 dollar plus a gallon gas? Never fear, its on the way!

Gee I'm sooo glad that those EVIL socialists haven't beat the damned thieves of Wall Street...YET!
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LeftHander Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 07:59 AM
Response to Original message
45. All you have to do is look at the volume in Oil Futures....
Pretty clear correlation when big investors jump into the summer oil futures market it drives the price up because the uber rich want a for sure deal. Expect gasoline to reach ALL TIME HIGHS and further crippling our economy by August.

Look at the volumes last year...they are buying july-august oil right now. plus the big oil consumption comes in late summer as harvesting kicks into full swing...and people are expecting to be driving rather than flying.
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florida08 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 08:03 AM
Response to Original message
47. Vinnie from Indy and WC Green
Edited on Thu May-21-09 08:06 AM by florida08
has got it right. There is no free market..there are only lobbyists,a complicit Congress and a runaway Wall Street. Oil is a damn resource that should be protected not used as a gambling tool.

From Financial Times:
Oil prices hit on Tuesday a fresh six-month high, nearing $60 a barrel, as traders bet that the signs of economic “green shoots” will boost demand. The move attracted fresh speculative buying, lifting prices even higher.....

“Recent price strength is not based on fundamentals, but on financial flows,” said Mike Wittner, a senior oil analyst at Société Générale in London. He said that investors’ appetite for riskier asset classes such as commodities was “better entrenched, and more sustainable” than earlier this year.


http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2009/05/12/markets-oil-hits-six-month-high/
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cherish44 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 08:24 AM
Response to Original message
50. Last time I filled up gas was $2.10 (11 days ago) today it's 2.50
What the fucking fucking fuck?? I heard gas prices usually go up %5 on Memorial Day weekend. I'm bad at math but isn't this price increase closer to 20%? Well I guess I'm going to have hold off on doing the work to my house I was planning (again). So much for getting the economy going again.:eyes:
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Hubert Flottz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 08:24 AM
Response to Original message
51. Does the Pope shit in the woods?
The rip-off is in progress and the ones we elected to protect us from the wolves are going on vacation.
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customerserviceguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 08:27 AM
Response to Original message
52. On the other hand
I sure didn't see the prices we were paying around Inauguration Day as being sustainable. If they had stayed at that level, SUV sales would be pretty strong right now. If the economy were back to reasonable health, I would expect to see prices in the $3-3.75 range, depending on what area of the country one lives is.

If it is speculators driving prices up, then some of them will get burned when they cannot find a bigger sucker some day. That's what happened after last year's peak in oil prices.

In any case, President Obama has wisely called for an increase in CAFE standards, we'll be glad of that as the economy recovers and fuel prices begin the march back upwards. $30-40 a barrel oil was just an aberration this last winter, we won't see that again ever.
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xchrom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 08:43 AM
Response to Original message
54. recommend
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rateyes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 08:53 AM
Response to Original message
55. A law should be passed that requires that a purchaser of oil take
delivery of that oil immediately, and cannot resell the oil until AFTER that delivery is made. Most people creating "demand" in the market for oil don't have places to store it. Such a law would end this speculation bullshit.
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dmosh42 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 01:52 PM
Response to Reply #55
75. Yes, that worked, but now we have a "Free Market" economy!
De-regulation ended those rules in the late 90s.
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onehandle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 08:54 AM
Response to Original message
56. Why is gas so cheap?
Edited on Thu May-21-09 08:55 AM by onehandle
They constantly tell us that we are in danger of having no oil if we don't drill, drill, drill.

Not to mention the effect of constant war where the shit comes from.

If supply and demand was a real factor in the pricing of oil, it would go up constantly and never go down.

Oil prices are fake, fake, fake.

The oil companies set them according to political mood and their desired bottom line at any given moment, not supply and demand.

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backscatter712 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 09:00 AM
Response to Original message
57. Obama should release some of the Strategic Oil Reserves.
If he puts a million barrels here or there on the market with the timing just so, in order to force prices down just when the speculators are trying to make a buck, it'll yank the floor out from under them and give them some motivation to behave themselves.
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Wizard777 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 09:01 AM
Response to Original message
58. There's no doubt. Oil Prices rose independent of supply and demand all through the Bush years.
So their up to old tricks.
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McCamy Taylor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 09:17 AM
Response to Original message
59. Of course. Wall Street panics, gas prices drop. Wall Street back at work----prices rise.
This is as simple as one plus one.
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Javaman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 09:20 AM
Response to Original message
60. and big oil has nothing to do with cutting back on refinement of oil products...
:eyes:
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2Design Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 09:31 AM
Response to Original message
61. driving up housing and oil and everything - until the government
allows interest rates to rise and start paying 18% on savings account like we had in the 80's this inflation is just hidden under the rug
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benld74 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 09:45 AM
Response to Original message
63. Hell yes. THat is why the price dropped after the Wall Street mess,,
was revealed AND the stocks dropped. People were bailing to get the funds out of everything, including gas and crude.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 10:43 AM
Response to Original message
66. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
prolesunited Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 10:45 AM
Response to Original message
67. They need to be stopped NOW
If there is any hope of a recovery, it will be killed by the speculators driving up prices again. In fact, they played a HUGE role in our current crisis.

With the taxpayers holding such a big stake in these companies, it is time Washington leveraged its position and make these companies accountable to the people.

It's NOT capitalism when you take taxpayer dollars. So if you don't want to have any government control, don't take our money. It's time to quit socializing the risks and privatizing the profits.
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Romulox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 10:48 AM
Response to Original message
68. Ever notice that there is virtually ZERO competition between gas retailers?
I can drive from one side of my city to the other, and I'll rarely find even $ 0.01 difference in price between the retailers. Odd. What are the chances of every single one of these stations having the same fixed costs?
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dotymed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 11:30 AM
Response to Reply #68
70. WHERE I LIVE
There is a GAS AMERICA station on one side of the street.
Across the street is a SHELL station. SHELL is ALWAYS one
penny higher than GAS AMERICA. When they raise their prices
(always), SHELL makes sure to stay one penny higher (or vice
versa) than the station across the street. What do they
consider price fixing?
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ButterflyBlood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 07:27 PM
Response to Reply #68
90. It's called competition
If gas costs X at one station, and X+Y at another station, obviously X will get more business. It makes sense for the second station to reduce their price by Y to be competitive. Why pay more for gas when there's cheaper gas right across the street?
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Romulox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-22-09 07:59 AM
Response to Reply #90
99. No, price uniformity results from COLLUSION (the opposite of competition)
In a truly competitive market, some stations should have lower costs than another, and therefore could afford to charge less than another. The fact that the prices are generally identical indicates an agreement by the stations to keep the price artificially high.

"Why pay more for gas when there's cheaper gas right across the street?"

Gas prices rarely vary by even $ 0.01 from one side of my city to another.
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pleah Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 01:27 PM
Response to Original message
73. Yes.
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Chemical Bill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 02:04 PM
Response to Original message
77. Last year 5 companies held over 80% of oil futures...
and gas was over $4 per gallon. I'm sure the Wall Street Journal will fill us in on this years details after the fact.

Bill
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ProudDad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 03:00 PM
Response to Original message
79. Petroleum products and fossil fuels are UNDERPRICED
relative to the damage they do.

In USAmerica, gas should be $5.00 per gallon with a $3+ tax that must be dedicated to conservation and alternative energy development.

Coal burning should be heavily taxed in proportion to the greenhouse gasses produced.

We should all learn how to live better with much, much less!

www.transitionus.org
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Jakes Progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 04:08 PM
Response to Reply #79
81. I favor prices that pay for the damage.
But these prices don't come close. And the costs don't even attempt to mitigate the damage. Make that 2.00 gas and a 6.00 tax. Then you get close. Right now all the profits from gouging go to the gougers.
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ProudDad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 08:01 PM
Response to Reply #81
91. And a 90% tax on ALL oil and coal company "profits"
and on their executives "earnings"...

to help mitigate the damage they do...
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LosinIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 10:31 PM
Response to Reply #79
95. Let me guess, you live near mass transit.
You can be so noble when you have the option to not drive. I have to drive 42 miles to go to a YMCA to attend warm water Aquafit aerobics, circa 35 miles to find a discount grocery store (ALDI) which really defeats the purpose, so I cry through the aisles of the local Highway Robbery grocery.
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butterfly77 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 04:29 PM
Response to Original message
83. YES,YES, YES and Yes!
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1955doubledie Donating Member (224 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 04:29 PM
Response to Original message
84. Is the bear Catholic?
Does the Pope shit in the woods?

:hide:

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cornermouse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 04:50 PM
Response to Original message
85. Other possibilities
Bush using oil from the National Reserve to artificially keep prices down at the end of his term and the government having to start replenishing those stores resulting in higher prices at the pump for us; as has happened in the past.
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blackdot Donating Member (65 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 05:59 PM
Response to Original message
88. Gas is so freaking cheap that it doesn't matter.
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ProudDad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 08:02 PM
Response to Reply #88
92. And that's a crime! (n/t)
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wuvuj Donating Member (874 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 08:28 PM
Response to Original message
93. Seasonal....
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dweller Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 09:51 PM
Response to Original message
94. if you took all of the cars in the US and lined them up end to end
it must be Memorial Day.

b/c they can.
dp
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-21-09 11:21 PM
Response to Original message
96. Well - Fuck Yeah
It's the 'Merican Way

:puke:

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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-22-09 06:58 PM
Response to Original message
101. Hey, it's the magic hand of the free market, what are you a communist? nt
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Imagevision Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-22-09 07:11 PM
Response to Original message
102. duh! plain & simple, it's a holiday weekend and they would lose billions if they didn't take
advantage of it. - It's like the end of summer, will ya'll be surprised to see prices dip down a bit? Oil companies got us by the balls and can squeeze all they want especially since Obama's windfall profit tax against the oil companies seems to have gotten misplaced in all this talk about gitmo closing.

Howard Hughes when asked about which party he wanted to support for the presidency? his reply; "it doesn't matter, as long as we own him". (now you know why watergate had to happen) ok.! Nixon had to know who Howard was supporting and a couple of other things.
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