Top Democrats lead Bush in poll - Kerry/Edwards 12-10 point edge over Bush

[Purveyor]

WASHINGTON (USATODAY.com) — Democrat John Kerry holds his largest lead yet over President Bush in a head-to-head match-up among likely voters, a new USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup poll concludes, and rival John Edwards also holds a double-digit lead over the president.

The poll, taken Feb. 16-17, indicates that if the election were held today, Kerry would be chosen by 55% of likely voters, compared to 43% for Bush. In the last polling, Feb. 6-8, Bush held a 49-48 advantage.

Edwards, Kerry's sole remaining major rival for the Democratic nomination, holds a 54%-44% advantage, the poll indicates. The question has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The numbers come as both Kerry, a Massachusetts senator, and Edwards, a senator from North Carolina, have maintained a relatively high public profile because of the ongoing Democratic presidential campaign. They also come as questions continue to be raised about Bush's Vietnam-era service in the National Guard.

Link to USATODY for full article and polling stats

[bushisanidiot]

1. YES! Double Digit Leads Over Pres. Shitferbrains!! Time for the american

people to start jumping on the bandwagon!

president AWOL is going down in flames!!

Hell, YEAH! HOO-AH!!

[demnan]

2. That's good news

but we all know that the polls that count are in November :) .

By then Rove will have produced the 9/11 show in NYC and we'll probably be on red alert or find Osama or something.

[Zero Gravitas]

18. Is that the same guy

who thought up the "Mission Accomplished" photo-op?

just wondering ;)

[central scrutinizer]

3. way outside the margin of error

but of course, "the Bush team hasn't even suited up yet" and they still have their ace in the hole: BBV. There will have to be a 30 point lead to make the lazy press question the election results.

[Jackpine Radical]

27. "Margin of error" is an interesting concept.

It only holds meaning if the poll sample is truly randomly drawn from the population to which one wishes to generalize. The population in this case is hypothetical--it's the totality of people who would vote for President today if given the chance. The M of E as calculated in instances like this is purely a function of sample size. Increase the sample and reduce the M of E. It's actually a square root function, not a linear one, so you hit a point of diminishing returnsover a thousand or 2 respondents. But the point remains, no poll is any better than the sampling technique used to select the participants, regardless of the M of E. Increasingly, as people tend to refuse to answer polls or lie to pollsters, or switch entirely to cell phones, or delist their numbers, the obtained samples do not match the population, and the polls are accordingly corrupted. The single exception is exit polls, which remain relatively accurate because the pollster has access to the entire population of interest, i.e. people who just actually voted.

[Raenelle]

4. I have a question

I heard Tweety refer to aWol, just last night, as a "very popular president." :puke:

My question--are the whores lying or are they going to have a mental disconnect when Chimpy McFlightsuit is tossed out on his butt?

[GainesT1958]

5. It's gooooood news ANY time...

The polls are so much in BOTH of our top two candidates' favor that--right now, at least--the election is shaping up as "ours to lose"! :D

Here's hoping we can keep that lead up--in both cases--and even develop some "coat-tails" in at least a few states with our eventual nominee. I must admit I'm feeling better about this one all the time!:7

:kick:

B-)

[salinen]

6. The polls are extremely important this time

because if (dem name) leads by enough going into GE, then we will know if BBV is in effect. Must build insurmountable lead.

[Kahuna]

7. Aaah! This explains Rush's show today. He was hitting..

Edwards hard too. I listened for about a half hour. Rush was really confused today. I think it must have been the Repubs voting for Bush yesterday. Poor old rush didn't know how to read that. I guess he was hoping they would vote for Dean.

[Cary]

38. Or maybe Rush is just confused because he's off the wagon?

[BadGimp]

8. I will not matter what the polls say

The Touchscreen Voting Machines will erase any hope ANY Democrat has against Bush.

Get ready for it people.

If you have not done so, head over to www.blackboxvoting.com and read up.

It's probably already too late, but it can't hurt to try to turn this problem around it consumes our entire Democracy.

[mobuto]

17. So don't vote - sit on your ass in November

and then there won't be any doubt.

You'll know for sure Bush'll get elected.

[BadGimp]

21. you are obviously NOT paying attention

Of course I will vote.

You completely missed the point of my post.

[mobuto]

24. I'm attacking your fatalism

You're saying it doesn't matter what we do because we'll lose regardless.

Maybe you're right - Debold Systems is indeed a backer of George W. - but lets campaign like hell anyway. Giving up now is the way to go down in defeat.

[Ediacara]

33. oh my gosh!

Black box voting. I've never ever heard of that on DU....

[Brotherjohn]

9. Great news. Enough with this "Bush hasn't even suited up yet" nonsense.

He "suited up", literally and figuratively, when he landed on the aircraft carrier. He's been campaigning nonstop for months.

Now that there's a chink in his armor of "integrity", it will only get harder for him.

Now that he'll have to campaign in front of audiences that are not always hand-picked, it will only get harder for him.

Imagine the debates of 2000 if Bush had received the critical (some would say reasonably skeptical) treatment he's getting nowadays. People doubt him now, and for good reason. Unlike the 2000 election, he will be checked and called on everything he says. The media, the Dem candidate, the people... no one is going to cut him the slack they did in 2000.

[damnraddem]

10. It was reported that Dubya led Kerry by only 8 points in ...

Kansas, of all places. If the Democrats can bring it off, Dubya could be very-soundly repudiated indeed. Most Americans are not radical right nor radical religious rights; and even some of the latter groups are getting upset with Dubya.

[lancdem]

20. I saw that poll

Didn't Bush win Kansas by a huge margin in 2000?

[ochazuke]

11. Does this mean that Edwards is surging nationally?

Or are people just voting for any Democrat they recognize over the miserable failure

[gasperc]

15. seems all dems are surging, and Chandler's win in KY has got

the GOP spooked for sure

[mobuto]

19. The question then is how to avoid peaking

too early. Maintaining momentum through a convention is difficult. It can be done, but its difficult. But we need to do our part.

[DoYouEverWonder]

22. I think a fence post

could beat Bu$h at this point, in a fair and free election.

[meti57b]

12. Thanks! I saw that on CNN and almost couldn't believe I saw it ....

but this confirms that I did!

[jsw_81]

13. It's definitely encouraging news

But we still have a long, long way to go before November. Anything can happen between now and then, and if we get overconfident, we'll lose; we should campaign like we're fifteen points down.

[gasperc]

14. uh-oh double digit leads, all hells gonna break loose now

we can only hope that Rove's mind will simply explode from the pressure. However, we can be sure that since Bush, Inc is planning not to lose AT ANY COST well we can only be in for HELL.

watch out for the incoming.................!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[DoYouEverWonder]

23. It's sure looks like the Neocon

Ship of State is taking on water fast and is going down.

[Sinistrous]

26. The Ship of State may be listing,

having been torpedoed by the acting captain, but I am not ready to say she is "going down". However, the pilot boat is drawing near, bearing the one who will replace the failed skipper.

PS. I knew what you meant. I just think you imagry is a bit stark.

[mobuto]

16. Likely voters? Wow

I've never seen Democrats do better in a national poll of likely voters than of registered voters as a whole. There are three possibilities: either this poll is an aberration, Bush is falling faster than polls can keep up, or there has been a major change in the American political landscape overnight.

The third is the most interesting, but one poll doesn't prove it.

[lancdem]

25. Maybe it's a sign Dems are really energized

and are swelling the likely voter ranks. But I'm sure these numbers will fluctuate a lot. After all, CNN had Kerry ahead by 7, then down by 1, then up by 12 in two weeks. The key may be to look at state polls, and those in swing states aren't looking good for Bush. He's at 49 percent in Ohio, a state he should win, and 47 percent in Pennsylvania, a state he lost in 2000 but is not considered solid Dem.

[wabeewoman]

28. That plus I think the repugs are desserting ship...

the immigration thing really put them off along with his lack of fiscal discipline. The only people he is guaranteed to hold on to is his religious right wing whackos. Everybody else is up for grabs!

[TruthIsAll]

34. Here's why the JFK lead is larger with likely voters..

Repubs are usually very likely to vote, more so than Dems. But now they are saying that they will sit this one out.

The Repubs are pissed off at Bush, less likely to vote.
The Dems are energized, more likely to vote.

[mobuto]

44. I hope you're right

Now lets keep our base energized.

GOTV!

[Moderator]

29. Kick!

:dem:

[mobuto]

30. Moderators can do that?

Wow.

[GRClarkesq]

31. Dont get too happy

Check the poll numbers by STATE - everyone remember the electoral college

http://www.zogby.com/news/021804.html

Zogby shows exact same result as 2000. Kerry barely winning blue states (overall) and Bush easily winning red states.

[IndianaGreen]

32. This is why I think Edwards is the strongest candidate against Bush

Edwards will bring independents and disaffected Republicans that would never vote for a Teddy Kennedy protege.

[GRClarkesq]

35. Probably true, just wish

Edwards had demonstrated more electability in his own state. He looked like he was going to be turned out. Still better than Kerry down south.

I worry about Kerry, he only stays on top of his game when being pushed. Dean for a while, now we wait and see how he racts to Edwards.

[4_Legs_Good]

39. The primary in his state hasn't happened yet...

I don't think. He's currently a North Carolina guy, though he was born in South Carolina.

I know he's said 'no', but seriously, what are the possibilities of a Kerry/Edwards ticket? All Kerry needs is a couple southern states and we're in.

david

[Poiuyt]

42. Does that poll account for states changing direction?

I got the impression looking at that poll was that the blue states were polled together and the red states were polled together, not each state individually. That's important if a state changes from red to blue (or vs). I thought I heard somewhere that Ohio might swing to Democrat.

The other factor to consider is that the polls have been quite inaccurate this year. They grossly overestimated Dean and underestimated Edwards.

[skippysmom]

36. Good news!

I know it's early, and I know the Repukes will do ANYTHING to stop the Dems from winning -- but it sure is nice to see more people agree that * is bad news.

[4_Legs_Good]

37. How does this compare to past races???

Does anyone have stats for about this time: Pre-Super Tuesday vs. a sitting President?

How was Clinton (or other Democrats) positioned against Bush Sr.?

How was Dole (or other Republicans if there were any left) positioned against Clinton?

It's obvious that the spotlight has been on the Democrats for some time, so how these numbers match up with past contests may be a better indicator of how we're doing...

david

[bullimiami]

40. Manipulated again

So easily too.


Remember how they crushed Deans lead when they felt like it?
They have allowed Kerry to be bulit up and have been cooperative in Bush negative spin.
Beware. They could just as quickly trash Kerry and build Dumbya up as a war hero and genius again.

I think they may not though. Bush has been "bad for business".

.............A one act play.........

Godfather : "Paulie, you have to take care of the Chimp hes become "bad for buisness""

Later...

Pauly : "Chimp, youve been loyal and a real team player, you know we all love you like a brother but you have become a liability, bad for business." Hugs the chimp and gives him a kiss on both cheeks.... BANG!!!

Fade to Black

[4_Legs_Good]

41. Has George Jr. been bad for business? (news business?)

Maybe so, but I know I've been 100x more tuned in since he stole office. Then again, I've also been tuned into (and far more trusting of) alternative news sources.

But you're certainly right, the Press has the power. I wonder if they're just flexing their muscles and making it clear who's in command.

david

Kucinich 2004

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

43. Wow, I bet the Inanimate Carbon Rod would get at least an 8% lead

People are REALLY ABB, aren't they? :yourock:

[catmandu57]

45. The way I see it

after three years the moron* is now a well known quantity, unlike 2000. Anyone who voted against the idiot in 2000* sure as hell isn't going to vote for him. Of the people who did vote for him 1/3 won't do it again, 1/3 is just going to stay home, and, the remaining third would vote for a lump of dsogshit if it had a repuke tag on it. They better steal it big and this time when they steal the govt. I plan on doing something about it.

[flaminbats]

46. The lead of Edwards is basically the same as Kerry's...

This is good news for Edwards, but bad for Kerry because Edwards is picking up crucial momentum just before Super Tuesday. I still think most independents confuse John Kerry and Edwards, which is why Edwards was able to win over so many of their votes in Wisconsin. Edwards is doing this by convincing many of these confused independents voting in the primary with his television ads, that he was the John they were intending to vote for. He has also picked up momentum from Kerry's victories, because some people actually think it is John Edwards not Kerry who is now the frontrunner.

But Kerry held his lead over registered Democrats, because most partisans already know the policy differences between Kerry and Edwards.